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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Regarding the optimization of O1-mode ECRH and the feasibility of EBW startup on NSTX-U

Recently published scenarios for fully non-inductive startup and operation on the National SphericalTorus eXperiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) (Menard et al 2012 Nucl. Fusion 52 083015) show ElectronCyclotron Resonance Heating (ECRH) as an important component in preparing a target plasma forefficient High Harmonic Fast Wave and Neutral Beam heating. The modeling of the propagation andabsorption of EC waves in the evolving plasma is required to define the most effective window ofoperation, and to optimize the launcher geometry for maximal heating and current drive during thiswindow. Here, we extend a previous optimization of O1-mode ECRH on NSTX-U to account for thefull time-dependent performance of the ECRH using simulations performed with TRANSP. We findthat the evolution of the density profile has a prominent role in the optimization by defining the timewindow of operation, which in certain cases may be a more important metric to compare launcherperformance than the average power absorption. This feature cannot be captured by analysis on staticprofiles, and should be accounted for when optimizing ECRH on any device that operates near thecutoff density. Additionally, the utility of the electron Bernstein wave (EBW) in driving current andgenerating closed flux surfaces in the early startup phase has been demonstrated on a number ofdevices. Using standalone GENRAY simulations, we find that efficient EBW current drive ispossible on NSTX-U if the injection angle is shifted below the midplane and aimed towards the tophalf of the vacuum vessel. However, collisional damping of the EBW is projected to be significant, insome cases accounting for up to 97% of the absorbed EBW power

Electron Bernstein wave↗
DOE OSTI2017

Connecting the failure of K-theory inside and above vegetation canopies and ejection-sweep cycles by a large eddy simulation

Parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere interaction processes in climate models and other hydrological applications require characterization of turbulent transport of momentum and scalars between vegetation canopies and the atmosphere, which is often modeled using a turbulent analogy to molecular diffusion processes. However, simple flux-gradient approaches (K-theory) fail for canopy turbulence. One cause is turbulent transport by large coherent eddies at the canopy scale, which can be linked to sweep-ejection events, and bear signatures of non-local organized eddy motions. K-theory, that parameterizes the turbulent flux or stress proportional to the local concentration or velocity gradient, fails to account for these non-local organized motions. The connection to sweep-ejection cycles and the local turbulent flux can be traced back to the turbulence triple moment $\overline{C'W'W'}$. In this work, we use large-eddy simulation to investigate the diagnostic connection between the failure of K-theory and sweep-ejection motions. Analyzed schemes are quadrant analysis (QA) and a complete and incomplete cumulant expansion (CEM and ICEM) method. The latter approaches introduce a turbulence timescale in the modeling. Furthermore, we find that the momentum flux needs a different formulation for the turbulence timescale than the sensible heat flux. In conclusion, accounting for buoyancy in stratified conditions is also deemed to be important in addition to accounting for non-local events to predict the correct momentum or scalar fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

Sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean's influence on hurricane intensification in the National Hurricane Center's Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). While both SST and TCHP serve as useful measures of the upper-ocean heat content, they do not accurately represent ocean stratification effects. Here we show that replacing SST in the SHIPS framework with a dynamic temperature (Tdy), which accounts for the oceanic negative feedback to the hurricane's intensity arising from storm-induced vertical mixing and sea-surface cooling, improves the model performance. While the model with SST and TCHP explains nearly 41% of the variance in 36-hr intensity changes, replacing SST with Tdy increases the variance explained to nearly 44%. Our results suggest that representation of the oceanic feedback, even through relatively simple formulations such as Tdy, may improve the performance of statistical hurricane intensity prediction models such as SHIPS.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2017

Demographic factors associated with dietary supplement prescriptions filled by United States Military Service Members 2005–2013

Background: Dietary supplements (DSs) can be purchased over-the-counter but may also be prescribed by medical personnel for specific therapeutic reasons. Few studies have examined this latter source of DSs despite the fact that 79% of physicians and 82% of nurses have recommended DSs to their patients. This investigation examined demographic factors associated with temporal trends in oral DS prescriptions filled by all United States (US) service members (SMs) from 2005 to 2013 (n = 1,427,080 ± 22,139, mean ± standard deviation per year). Methods: The Food and Drug Administration National Drug Code database and the formularies of the US Defense Health Agency’s Pharmacoeconomic Center were queried to identify DSs available to SMs. The number of these DS prescriptions filled by all SMs from 2005 through 2013 was then obtained from the US Department of Defense Pharmacy Data Transaction System. Data were grouped by American Hospital Formulary System (AHFS) pharmacologic-therapeutic classifications and examined over time. Denominators (number of SMs each year) were obtained from the Defense Health Agency. Results: Major findings included 1) generally greater prevalence of prescriptions filled by women and older SMs for most AHFS categories; 2) a temporal decline in total prescriptions filled by Marine Corps personnel accounted for by a decline in the prevalence of zinc preparations filled by younger male Marines; 3) a temporal decline in the prevalence of iron preparations filled by women; 4) a temporal increase in the prevalence of prescriptions for replacement preparations filled by women accounted for largely by more prescriptions for calcium compounds; and 5) a temporal decline in the prevalence of prescriptions filled for cathartics/laxatives in older SMs accounted for largely by a decline in prescriptions for sodium/potassium compounds. Conclusions: These temporal trends may be associated with the greater health care utilization of women and older SMs as well as the perceptions of prescribers and/or patients on appropriate roles of these substances in medicine and public health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A New Equivalence Theory Method for Treating Doubly Heterogeneous Fuel - I. Theory

A new methodology has been developed to treat resonance self-shielding in doubly heterogeneous very high temperature gas-cooled reactor systems in which the fuel compact region of a reactor lattice consists of small fuel grains dispersed in a graphite matrix. This new method first homogenizes the fuel grain and matrix materials using an analytically derived disadvantage factor from a two-region problem with equivalence theory and intermediate resonance method. This disadvantage factor accounts for spatial self-shielding effects inside each grain within the framework of an infinite array of grains. Then the homogenized fuel compact is self-shielded using a Bondarenko method to account for interactions between the fuel compact regions in the fuel lattice. In the final form of the equations for actual implementations, the double-heterogeneity effects are accounted for by simply using a modified definition of a background cross section, which includes geometry parameters and cross sections for both the grain and fuel compact regions. With the new method, the doubly heterogeneous resonance self-shielding effect can be treated easily even with legacy codes programmed only for a singly heterogeneous system by simple modifications in the background cross section for resonance integral interpolations. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the new method and a sensitivity study of double-heterogeneity parameters introduced during the derivation. The implementation of the method and verification results for various test cases are presented in the companion paper.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

uncertainty, radiation risk estimation, Mayak Prod↗
DOE OSTI2016

Numerical Analysis of the Source of Excessive Na + and Cl – Species in Flowback Water From Hydraulically Fractured Shale Formations

Fracture fluid comprises fresh water, proppant, and a small percentage of other additives, which support the hydraulic fracturing process. Excluding situations in which flowback water is recycled and reused, total dissolve solids in fracture fluid is limited to the fluid additives, such as potassium chloride (1-7 weight percent KCL), which is used as a clay stabilizer to minimize clay swelling, and clay particle migration. However, the composition of recovered fluid, especially as it relates to the total dissolve solids (TDS), is always substantially different than the injected fracture fluid. The ability to predict flowback water volume and composition is useful when planning for the management or reuse of this aqueous byproduct stream. In this work, an ion transport and halite dissolution model was coupled with a fully implicit, dual porosity, numerical simulator, to study the source of the excess solutes in flowback water, and to predict the concentration of both Na+ and Cl- species seen in recovered water. The results showed that mixing alone, between the injected fracture fluid and concentrated in situ formation brine, could not account for the substantial rise in TDS seen in flowback water. Instead, the results proved that halite dissolution is a major contributor to the change in TDS seen in fracture fluid during injection and recovery. Halite dissolution can account for as much as 81% of Cl- and 86.5% of Na+ species seen in 90-day flowback water; mixing, between the injected fracture fluid and in situ concentrated brine, accounts for approximately 19% Cl- and 13% Na+.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Theoretical Investigation of Microstructure Evolution and Deformation of Zirconium Under Cascade Damage Conditions

This work is based on our reaction-diffusion model of radiation growth of Zr-based materials proposed recently in "On the Origin of Radiation Growth of HCP Crystals". In "On the Origin of Radiation Growth of HCP Crystals", the equations for the strain rates in unloaded pure crystal under cascade damage conditions of, e.g., neutron or heavy-ion irradiation were derived as functions of dislocation densities, which include contributions from dislocation loops, and spatial distribution of their Burgers vectors. The model takes into account the intra-cascade clustering of self-interstitial atoms and their one-dimensional diffusion; explains the growth stages, including the break-away growth of pre-annealed samples; and accounts for some striking observations, such as of negative strain in prismatic direction, and co-existence of vacancy- and interstitial-type prismatic loops. In this report, the change of dislocation densities due to accumulation of sessile dislocation loops is taken into account explicitly to investigate the dose dependence of radiation growth. The dose dependence of climb rates of dislocations is calculated, which is important for the climb-induced glide model of radiation creep. The results of fitting the model to available experimental data and some numerical calculations of the strain behavior of Zr for different initial dislocation structures are presented and discussed. The computer code RIMD-ZR.V1 (Radiation Induced Microstructure and Deformation of Zr) developed is described and attached to this report.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Initial Assessment of Alternate Metals in Chalcogels

This report provides an up-to-date account of the non-Pt based chemistries available in the literature for making non-oxide, chalcogen-based aerogels, called chalcogels. In each case, a combination of multiple precursors is required to make the chalcogels and, in most cases, the precursors are not commercially available and must be prepared in the laboratory. References for the preparation details of these precursors have been provided for each. An account of the chalcogels made at PNNL is also given in this report along with iodine sorption efficiencies for three very diverse chalcogel chemistries. A brief account of consolidation options is provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Energy Efficiency Improvement and Cost Saving Oportunities for the Concrete Industry

The U.S. concrete industry is the main consumer of U.S.-produced cement. The manufacturing of ready mixed concrete accounts for more than 75% of the U.S. concrete production following the manufacturing of precast concrete and masonry units. The most significant expenditure is the cost of materials accounting for more than 50% of total concrete production costs - cement only accounts for nearly 24%. In 2009, energy costs of the U.S. concrete industry were over $\$$610 million. Hence, energy efficiency improvements along with efficient use of materials without negatively affecting product quality and yield, especially in times of increased fuel and material costs, can significantly reduce production costs and increase competitiveness. The Energy Guide starts with an overview of the U.S. concrete industry’s structure and energy use, a description of the various manufacturing processes, and identification of the major energy consuming areas in the different industry segments. This is followed by a description of general and process related energy- and cost-efficiency measures applicable to the concrete industry. Specific energy and cost savings and a typical payback period are included based on literature and case studies, when available. The Energy Guide intends to provide information on cost reduction opportunities to energy and plant managers in the U.S. concrete industry. Every cost saving opportunity should be assessed carefully prior to implementation in individual plants, as the economics and the potential energy and material savings may differ.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

Real-Time Detection Methods to Monitor TRU Compositions in UREX+Process Streams

The U.S. Department of Energy has developed advanced methods for reprocessing spent nuclear fuel. The majority of this development was accomplished under the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI), building on the strong legacy of process development R&D over the past 50 years. The most prominent processing method under development is named UREX+. The name refers to a family of processing methods that begin with the Uranium Extraction (UREX) process and incorporate a variety of other methods to separate uranium, selected fission products, and the transuranic (TRU) isotopes from dissolved spent nuclear fuel. It is important to consider issues such as safeguards strategies and materials control and accountability methods. Monitoring of higher actinides during aqueous separations is a critical research area. By providing on-line materials accountability for the processes, covert diversion of the materials streams becomes much more difficult. The importance of the nuclear fuel cycle continues to rise on national and international agendas. The U.S. Department of Energy is evaluating and developing advanced methods for safeguarding nuclear materials along with instrumentation in various stages of the fuel cycle, especially in material balance areas (MBAs) and during reprocessing of used nuclear fuel. One of the challenges related to the implementation of any type of MBA and/or reprocessing technology (e.g., PUREX or UREX) is the real-time quantification and control of the transuranic (TRU) isotopes as they move through the process. Monitoring of higher actinides from their neutron emission (including multiplicity) and alpha signatures during transit in MBAs and in aqueous separations is a critical research area. By providing on-line real-time materials accountability, diversion of the materials becomes much more difficult. The objective of this consortium was to develop real time detection methods to monitor the efficacy of the UREX+ process and to safeguard the separated TRUs against unlawful diversion from within a processing facility. To achieve this, a comprehensive strategy was implemented to incorporate traditional detectors and advanced Tensioned Metastable Fluid (TMFD) metastable fluid detectors (developed, in part, under this project) into a novel detector assembly coupled to the UREX+ centrifugal contactor array. The sections below provide a brief summary of the technical achievements completed during this project. The principal outcomes are documented in more complete details contained the doctoral dissertations and masters theses, journal papers, conference proceedings and additional items for more than the 35 publications that are listed in the program bibliography in Section 3.

McDeavitt, Sean M.↗
DOE OSTI2013

EMPIRE-3.2 Malta: modular system for nuclear reaction calculations and nuclear data evaluation [User's Manual]

EMPIRE is a modular system of nuclear reaction codes, comprising various nuclear models, and designed for calculations over a broad range of energies and incident particles. The system can be used for theoretical investigations of nuclear reactions as well as for nuclear data evaluation work. Photons, nucleons, deuterons, tritons, helions (3He), α’s, and light or heavy ions can be selected as projectiles. The energy range starts just above the resonance region in the case of a neutron projectile, and extends up to few hundred MeV for heavy ion induced reactions. The code accounts for the major nuclear reaction models, such as optical model, Coupled Channels and DWBA (ECIS06 and OPTMAN), Multi-step Direct (ORION + TRISTAN), NVWY Multi-step Compound, exciton model (PCROSS), hybrid Monte Carlo simulation (DDHMS), and the full featured Hauser-Feshbach model including width fluctuations and the optical model for fission. Heavy ion fusion cross section can be calculated within the simplified coupled channels approach (CCFUS). A comprehensive library of input parameters based on the RIPL-3 library covers nuclear masses, optical model parameters, ground state deformations, discrete levels and decay schemes, level densities, fission barriers, and γ-ray strength functions. Effects of the dynamic deformation of a fast rotating nucleus can be taken into account in the calculations (BARFIT, MOMFIT). The results can be converted into the ENDF-6 format using the accompanying EMPEND code. Modules of the ENDF Utility Codes and the ENDF Pre-Processing codes are applied for ENDF file verification. The package contains the full EXFOR library of experimental data in computational format C4 that are automatically retrieved during the calculations. EMPIRE contains the resonance module that retrieves data from the electronic version of the Atlas of Neutron Resonances by Mughabghab (not provided with the EMPIRE distribution), to produce resonance section and related covariances for the ENDF-6 formatted files. EMPIRE can be used to determine covariances of the calculated data using either sensitivity matrices along with the KALMAN code or employing Monte Carlo approach to produce model generated covariances. In both cases experimental data can be taken into account, either directly (KALMAN) or by feeding the EMPIRE calculated Monte Carlo modelling covariance as a prior to the least square fitting GANDR system. Publication quality graphs can be obtained using the powerful and flexible plotting package ZVView. Interactive plots with ZVView comparing experimental results with calculations can be produced with ENDVER modules. The backbone of the EMPIRE system are bash-shell UNIX scripts that provide for seamless console operation of EMPIRE on Linux, Mac OS X, and Microsoft Windows with GNU gfortran compiler installed. Additionally, the graphical interface, provides for an easy operation of the system on Linux, Mac OS X and virtual Linux machines running on Microsoft Windows.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Evolution of chemical conditions and estimated solubility controls on radionuclides in the residual waste layer during post-closure aging of high-level waste tanks

This document provides information specific to H-Area waste tanks that enables a flow and transport model with limited chemical capabilities to account for varying waste release from the tanks through time. The basis for varying waste release is solubilities of radionuclides that change as pore fluids passing through the waste change in composition. Pore fluid compositions in various stages were generated by simulations of tank grout degradation. The first part of the document describes simulations of the degradation of the reducing grout in post-closure tanks. These simulations assume flow is predominantly through a water saturated porous medium. The infiltrating fluid that reacts with the grout is assumed to be fluid that has passed through the closure cap and into the tank. The results are three stages of degradation referred to as Reduced Region II, Oxidized Region II, and Oxidized Region III. A reaction path model was used so that the transitions between each stage are noted by numbers of pore volumes of infiltrating fluid reacted. The number of pore volumes to each transition can then be converted to time within a flow and transport model. The bottoms of some tanks in H-Area are below the water table requiring a different conceptual model for grout degradation. For these simulations the reacting fluid was assumed to be 10% infiltrate through the closure cap and 90% groundwater. These simulations produce an additional four pore fluid compositions referred to as Conditions A through D and were intended to simulate varying degrees of groundwater influence. The most probable degradation path for the submerged tanks is Condition C to Condition D to Oxidized Region III and eventually to Condition A. Solubilities for Condition A are estimated in the text for use in sensitivity analyses if needed. However, the grout degradation simulations did not include sufficient pore volumes of infiltrating fluid for the grout to evolve to Condition A. Solubility controls for use in a flow and transport model were estimated for 27 elements in each of the chemical stages generated in the grout simulations plus local groundwater. The grout simulations were run with the initial infiltrating fluid in equilibrium with atmospheric oxygen to account for degradation of the reduction capacity of the grout. However, a lower Eh was used in pore fluids in the oxidizing conditions used to estimate solubilities to be more consistent with measured Eh values and natural systems. Solubilities of plutonium are affected by this decision, but those of other elements are not. In addition, the baseline for H-Area tanks is that they will be washed with oxalic acid prior to being filled with grout. Hence, oxalate was included in the pore fluids by assuming equilibrium with calcium oxalate. Solubility estimates were done by equilibrating a solubility controlling phase for each element with the pore fluid compositions using The Geochemist’s Workbench®. Condition B pore fluids are similar to Condition D. Therefore, solubilities for Condition B were not estimated, but assumed to be the same as in Condition D. In general solubility controlling phases were selected to bias solubilities to higher values. Several elements had no solubility controls and solubility estimates for other elements were omitted because the elements had short half-lives or were present in residual waste in very low amounts. For these it is recommended that release from the tank be instantaneous when the tank liner is breached. There is considerable uncertainty in this approach to enabling a flow and transport model to account for variable waste release. Yet, it is also flexible and requires much less computing time than a fully coupled reactive transport model. This allows some of the uncertainty to be addressed by multiple flow and transport sensitivity cases. Some of the uncertainties are addressed within this document. These include uncertainty in infiltrate composition, grout mineralogy, and disposition of certain components during the simulations. Uncertainty in the solubility estimates is addressed in part by examining sensitivity of solubilities for four key elements to uncertainty in thermodynamic data, pH, Eh, total inorganic carbon concentration, and oxalate concentration. In addition, the solubilities for the elements estimated here are compared to two other compilations of solubilities in cementitious materials.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2012

Measurement control workshop instructional materials

An essential element in an effective nuclear materials control and accountability (MC&A) program is the measurement of the nuclear material as it is received, moved, processed and shipped. Quality measurement systems and methodologies determine the accuracy of the accountability values. Implementation of a measurement control program is essential to ensure that the measurement systems and methodologies perform as expected. A measurement control program also allows for a determination of the level of confidence in the accounting values.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2012

Quantifying the Co-benefits of Energy-Efficiency Programs: A Case Study of the Cement Industry in Shandong Province, China

China’s cement industry accounted for more than half of the world’s total cement production in 2010. The cement industry is one of the most energy-intensive and highest carbon dioxide (CO2)-emitting industries and one of the key industrial contributors to air pollution in China. For example, it is the largest source of particulate matter (PM) emissions in China, accounting for 40 percent of industrial PM emissions and 27 percent of total national PM emissions. Although specific regulations and policies are needed to reduce the pollutant emissions from the cement industry, air pollution can also be reduced as a co-benefit of energy efficiency and climate-change mitigation policies and programs. Quantifying and accounting for these co-benefits when evaluating energy efficiency and climate-change mitigation programs reveals benefits beyond the programs’ energy and global warming impacts and adds to their cost effectiveness. In this study, we quantify the co-benefits of PM10 and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions reductions that result from energy-saving measures in China’s cement industry.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Influence of local capillary trapping on containment system effectiveness

Immobilization of CO 2 injected into deep subsurface storage reservoirs is a critical component of risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage (GCS). Local capillary trapping (LCT) is a recently established mode of immobilization that arises when CO 2 migrates due to buoyancy through heterogeneous storage reservoirs. This project sought to assess the amount and extent of LCT expected in storage formations under a range of injection conditions, and to confirm the persistence of LCT if the seal overlying the reservoir were to lose its integrity. Numerical simulation using commercial reservoir simulation software was conducted to assess the influence of injection. Laboratory experiments, modeling and numerical simulation were conducted to assess the effect of compromised seal integrity. Bench-scale (0.6 m by 0.6 m by 0.03 m) experiments with surrogate fluids provided the first empirical confirmation of the key concepts underlying LCT: accumulation of buoyant nonwetting phase at above residual saturations beneath capillary barriers in a variety of structures, which remains immobile under normal capillary pressure gradients. Immobilization of above-residual saturations is a critical distinction between LCT and the more familiar “residual saturation trapping.” To estimate the possible extent of LCT in a storage reservoir an algorithm was developed to identify all potential local traps, given the spatial distribution of capillary entry pressure in the reservoir. The algorithm assumes that the driving force for CO 2 migration can be represented as a single value of “critical capillary entry pressure” P c,entry crit , such that cells with capillary entry pressure greater/less than P c,entry crit act as barriers/potential traps during CO 2 migration. At intermediate values of P c,entry crit , the barrier regions become more laterally extensive in the reservoir, approaching a percolation threshold while non-barrier regions remain numerous. The maximum possible extent of LCT thus occurs at P c,entry crit near this threshold. Testing predictions of this simple algorithm against full-physics simulations of buoyancy-driven CO 2 migration support the concept of critical capillary entry pressure. However, further research is needed to determine whether a single value of critical capillary entry pressure always applies and how that value can be determined a priori. Simulations of injection into high-resolution (cells 0.3 m on a side) 2D and 3D heterogeneous domains show two characteristic behaviors. At small gravity numbers (vertical flow velocity much less than horizontal flow velocity) the CO 2 fills local traps as well as regions that would act as local barriers if CO 2 were moving only due to buoyancy. When injection ceases, the CO 2 migrates vertically to establish large saturations within local traps and residual saturation elsewhere. At large gravity numbers, the CO 2 invades a smaller portion of the perforated interval. Within this smaller swept zone the local barriers are not invaded, but local traps are filled to large saturation during injection and remain during post-injection gravity-driven migration. The small gravity number behavior is expected in the region within 100 m of a vertical injection well at anticipated rates of injection for commercial GCS. Simulations of leakage scenarios (through-going region of large permeability imposed in overlying seal) indicate that LCT persists (i.e. CO 2 remains held in a large fraction of the local iv traps) and the persistence is independent of injection rate during storage. Simulations of leakage for the limiting case of CO 2 migrating vertically from an areally extensive emplacement in the lower portion of a reservoir showed similar strong persistence of LCT. This research has two broad implications for GCS. The first is that LCT can retain a significant fraction of the CO 2 stored in a reservoir – above and beyond the residual saturation -- if the overlying seal were to fail. Thus frameworks for risk assessment should be extended to account for LCT. The second implication is that compared to pressure driven flow in reservoirs, CO 2 migration and trapping behave in a qualitatively different manner in heterogeneous reservoirs when buoyancy is the dominant driving force for flow. Thus simulations of GCS that neglect capillary heterogeneity will fail to capture important features of the CO 2 plume. While commercial reservoir simulation software can account for fine scale capillary heterogeneity, it has not been designed to work efficiently with such domains, and no simulators can handle fine-scale resolution throughout the reservoir. A possible way to upscale the migration and trapping is to apply an “effective residual saturation” to coarse-scale grids. While the extent of overall immobilization can be correlated in this way, all coarser grids failed to capture the distance traveled by the migrating CO 2 for large gravity number. Thus it remains unclear how best to account for LCT in the routine simulation work-flow that will be needed for large-scale GCS. Alternatives meriting investigation include streamline methods, reduced-physics proxies (e.g. particle tracking), and biased invasion percolation algorithms, which are based on precisely the capillary heterogeneity essential for LCT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

A Statistical Framework for Operational lnfrasound Monitoring [Slides]

Historically, much infrasound research has been event-based, with known events providing the ground-truth required to inform the search for associated signals. For monitoring nuclear explosions in the atmosphere or underground, reliable techniques are required for operational infrasound data processing that effectively minimize both false alarms and missed detections. A difficulty in working with infrasound data is to adequately account for dynamic variations in the atmosphere, which occur over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. However, contrary to one's intuition, it is not necessary to have a high fidelity atmospheric model in order to perform robust detection, association and location. We present detection, association and location algorithms that assume no a priori knowledge of the atmosphere; however, where knowledge is available we show how it can be used to reduce the associated uncertainties. Rather than exporting seismic techniques to the problem of infrasound monitoring, our techniques were developed from the ground-up to properly account for the unique considerations of atmospheric acoustics. In contrast with other routinely used infrasound detectors, we utilize a contextual detection hypothesis that adaptively accounts for temporally variable correlated ambient noise. Our location scheme allows for the location of infrasound events without any meteorological data through a Bayesian framework. We demonstrate the application of the techniques presented here for a series of ground-truth events, and for routine data processing of large amounts of regional infrasound data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2012

Energy and Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Energy and Water Conservation Standards Adopted From 1987 Through 2011

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of Federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2011. The standards for consumer products and commercial and industrial equipment include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by DOE through rulemaking. In 2011, the standards saved an estimated 3.2 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 3% of total U.S. energy consumption. The savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $\$ $42 billion. The average household saved $\$ $309 in operating costs as a result of residential and plumbing product standards. The estimated reduction in CO 2 emissions associated with the standards in 2011 was 176 million metric tons , which is equivalent to 3 percent of total U.S. CO 2 emissions. The estimated cumulative energy savings over the period 1990-2070 amount to 176 quads. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the operating cost (energy and water) savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a projected cumulative net present value (NPV) of consumer benefit of between $\$ $938 billion and $\$ $1,279 billion, using 7 percent and 3 percent discount rates, respectively. The water conservation standards, together with energy conservation standards that also save water, reduced water use by 1.5 trillion gallons in 2010, and will achieve cumulative water savings by 2040 of 51.4 trillion gallons. The estimated consumer savings in 2010 from reduced water use amounted to $\$ $10.8 billon. Standards set by legislation account for 47 percent of total cumulative primary energy savings and 55 to 66 percent of the total cumulative NPV (depending on which discount rate is used). Standards set by DOE rulemakings account for 53 percent of total cumulative primary energy savings and 34 to 45 percent of the total cumulative NPV.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗