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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling↗

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Environmental sciences↗

Autocalibration of the E3SM Version 2 Atmosphere Model Using a PCA-Based Surrogate for Spatial Fields

Global Climate Model tuning (calibration) is a tedious and time-consuming process, with high-dimensional input and output fields. Experts typically tune by iteratively running climate simulations with hand-picked values of tuning parameters. Many, in both the statistical and climate literature, have proposed alternative calibration methods, but most are impractical or difficult to implement. We present a practical, robust, and rigorous calibration approach on the atmosphere-only model of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. Our approach can be summarized into two main parts: (a) the training of a surrogate that predicts E3SM output in a fraction of the time compared to running E3SM, and (b) gradient-based parameter optimization. To train the surrogate, we generate a set of designed ensemble runs that span our input parameter space and use polynomial chaos expansions on a reduced output space to fit the E3SM output. We use this surrogate in an optimization scheme to identify values of the input parameters for which our model best matches gridded spatial fields of climate observations. To validate our choice of parameters, we run E3SMv2 with the optimal parameter values and compare prediction results to expertly-tuned simulations across 45 different output fields. This flexible, robust, and automated approach is straightforward to implement, and we demonstrate that the resulting model output matches present day climate observations as well or better than the corresponding output from expert tuned parameter values, while considering high-dimensional output and operating in a fraction of the time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Implementation of Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement Into Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract The low cloud bias in global climate models (GCMs) remains an unsolved problem. Coarse vertical resolution in GCMs has been suggested to be a significant cause of low cloud bias because planetary boundary layer parameterizations cannot resolve sharp temperature and moisture gradients often found at the top of subtropical stratocumulus layers. This work aims to ameliorate the low cloud problem by implementing a new computational method, the Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE), into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Three physics schemes representing microphysics, radiation, and turbulence as well as vertical advection are interfaced to vertically enhanced physics (VEP), which allows for these processes to be computed on a higher vertical resolution grid compared to the rest of the E3SM model. We demonstrate the better representation of subtropical boundary layer clouds with FIVE while limiting additional computational cost from the increased number of levels. When the vertical resolution approaches the large eddy simulation‐like vertical resolution in VEP, the climatological low cloud amount shows a significant increase of more than 30% in the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Using FIVE to improve the representation of low‐level clouds does not come with any negative side effects associated with the simulation of mid‐ and high‐level cloud and precipitation, that can occur when running the full model at higher vertical resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CESM1(WACCM) Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project

This paper describes the stratospheric aerosol geoengineering large ensemble (GLENS) project, which promotes the use of an unique model dataset, performed with Community Earth System Model, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component (CESM1(WACCM)), to investigate global and regional impacts of geoengineering. The performed simulations target multiple simultaneous climate goals unlike many earlier studies that targeted globally averaged surface temperature. This strategic approach is expected to reduce some of the previously found adverse effects of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, including uneven cooling between the poles and equator and shifts in tropical precipitation. An ensemble of 20 members allows the identification of forced changes in global and regional climate variables in the coupled atmosphere, land, sea-ice, and ocean system in the presence of internal variability. Here, we invite the broader community to perform in-depth analysis of climate related impacts and to identify processes that lead to changes in the climate system as the result of a strategic application of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (Capsule Summary) A community project that enables analysis of robust global and regional changes resulting from strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering in the presence of internal climate variability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Amazon forest response to CO 2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition

Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has not been considered in global model ensembles—for example, during the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Here we simulate the planned free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment AmazonFACE with an ensemble of 14 terrestrial ecosystem models. We show that phosphorus availability reduces the projected CO 2 -induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% to 79 ± 63 g C m -2 yr -1 over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon–nitrogen models. Our results suggest that the resilience of the region to climate change may be much less than previously assumed. Variation in the biomass carbon response among the phosphorus-enabled models is considerable, ranging from 5 to 140 g C m -2 yr -1 , owing to the contrasting plant phosphorus use and acquisition strategies considered among the models. The Amazon forest response thus depends on the interactions and relative contributions of the phosphorus acquisition and use strategies across individuals, and to what extent these processes can be upregulated under elevated CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

America Resilient Climate Conference

On April 14, 2021, scientists, policymakers, and other interested parties from research institutes, academia, and other organizations gathered together virtually at the America Resilient Climate Conference to discuss one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century: building resilience to climate change. Climate change affects the security and health of all Americans. Coastal areas are enduring more frequent and severe flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge; western states and Alaska have experienced increasingly devastating wildfires, driven in part by hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons; and communities across the nation have suffered through extreme precipitation events and heat waves. Even if emissions are reduced aggressively in the near future, the world—and the United States—will continue to feel the impacts of climate change for decades to come, due to the continued accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Consequently, it is essential to act now to protect natural and human assets from the gradual—as well as extreme—impacts of a changing climate. To build resilient communities, leaders and community members need science-based information about the potential impacts climate change will have decades into the future and for specific regions. Therefore, it is essential to develop high-resolution climate models that can project both various climate impacts and the interactions between earth system variables and humans down to regional and local scales. Collecting and curating data for such models and their computational requirements poses large challenges. In the future, artificial intelligence will be needed to increase their accuracy and reduce associated uncertainties. The investments in Earth system science and artificial intelligence made by the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities will be essential in addressing these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivities of Simulated Satellite Views of Clouds to Subgrid-Scale Overlap and Condensate Heterogeneity

Satellite simulators are often used to account for limitations in satellite retrievals of cloud properties in comparisons between models and satellite observations. The purpose of this framework is to enable more robust evaluation of model cloud properties, so that differences between models and observations can more confidently be attributed to model errors. A critical step in this process is accounting for the difference between the spatial scales at which cloud properties are retrieved with those at which clouds are simulated in global models. In this study, we create a series of sensitivity tests using 4-km global model output from the multiscale modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated satellite retrievals to common assumptions about cloud and precipitation overlap and condensate variability used in climate models whose grid spacing is many tens to hundreds of kilometers. We find the simulated retrievals are sensitive to these assumptions. Using maximum-random overlap with homogeneous cloud and precipitation condensate leads to errors in Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-simulated cloud cover and in CloudSat-simulated radar reflectivity that are significant compared to typical differences between the model simulations and observations. A more realistic treatment of unresolved clouds and precipitation is shown to substantially reduce these errors. The sensitivity to these assumptions underscores the need for the adoption of more realistic subcolumn treatments in models and the need for consistency among subcolumn assumptions between models and simulators to ensure that simulator-diagnosed errors are consistent with the model formulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models

Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean–atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. In conclusion, results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have emerged over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Assessment↗

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Major improvements on the longwave radiative interactions between surface and clouds in the polar regions in atmospheric global circulation model

Motivations: One of the most important tasks in the study of physical and socioeconomic aspects of climate change is the simulation of polar climate and how it changes in response to global warming. One import component of the polar energy budget (and thus of polar climate) is the radiative interaction between surface and clouds. As of today, the vast majority of state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs), including all three US flagship GCMs (NCAR CESM, GFDL CM3, and GISS E2-H/E2-R), still assume constant surface emissivity overall spectral bands in their longwave radiation treatment. Similarly, a majority of state-of-the-art GCMs assume non-scattering clouds in the longwave spectrum, including both the NCAR CESM and GFDL CM3. The issues of ignoring spectral variation in surface emissivity and scattering by clouds manifest themselves in the far-infrared (IR) over the polar continents because (1) there is so little water vapor in such areas that surface far-IR emission can reach clouds; and (2) the imaginary part of the refractive index of ice has a local minimum over 350-550 cm-1, which implies possible strong scattering effects over this spectral region both within and between the snow surface and ice clouds. Our sensitivity studies using CloudSat-retrieved hydrometeor profiles over the high-elevation Antarctic continent show that, in winter, an appropriate inclusion of snow surface spectral emissivity and ice cloud scattering in radiative transfer calculations can noticeably reduce the monthly-mean surface net downward far-IR flux and net atmospheric far-IR emission over the entire region. For the far-IR alone, the magnitude of these effects is ~1Wm-2 or even larger. Projection Objectives: We propose to carry out the following studies: (1) Develop or update schemes that can be used in the CESM to compute the optical properties of the snow surface and ice clouds consistently across the longwave and the shortwave spectrum; (2) Modify the longwave radiation scheme in the CESM such that it can incorporate surface spectral emissivity and scattering of clouds; (3) Validate schemes developed for (1) and (2) against measurements or benchmark models; (4) Evaluate the effects of these new treatments on the simulated polar energy budget and climate by the CESM. Technical Approaches:1.Use a detailed snowpack radiative transfer model to simulate spectrally resolved emissivity of snow surfaces as a function of snow effective radius. The model will be validated against available high spectral-resolution measurements of snow spectral emissivity (ASTER spectra library v2.0). Currently the CESM prognoses vertically-resolved snow effective radius, and snow shortwave albedo is parameterized based on snow effective radius. Our treatment of snow spectral emissivity here will be consistent with the treatment of snow albedo in the shortwave and seamlessly connected with the snow physical module in the CESM. 2. Update the parameterization of ice cloud optical properties in the CESM, for both longwave and shortwave, based on the latest ice-cloud scattering database developed by co-I Prof. Yang. 3. Modify RRTMG_LW, the current longwave radiation scheme in the CESM, to include the surface spectral emissivity and the scattering of clouds in the longwave calculation. Validate modified scheme against a line-by-line radiative transfer model with multiple scattering capability (LBLRTM/CHARTS). 4. Implement products from Steps 1-3 into the CESM and conduct simulations to evaluate their effects on the simulated polar climate and energy budget. These runs will be compared to control runs and evaluated using routine model-observation diagnostics, including data from the ARM NSA (North Slope of Alaska) site. Moreover, a novel aspect in this step is that we will evaluate the simulated longwave band-by-band fluxes and cloud radiative effect against observational counterparts over both polar continents, using a product recently derived by the lead PI Prof. Huang from collocated AIRS and CERES satellite observations from 2002 to 2013. Benefits and outcomes: This project will significantly improve the longwave radiation scheme in the CESM and its successors and provide more realistic treatment of radiative interactions between polar surfaces and clouds. In the future, it will also be straightforward to extend this framework to include spectral emissivity of all surface types. This is responsive to identified DoE Earth System Modeling Science Drivers to improve the performance of the fully coupled climate system modeling and to help address questions on how rapid changes in cryospheric systems interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting Interior Water Mass Responses to Surface Forcing Changes and the Subsequent Effects on Overturning in the Southern Ocean

Abstract Two coupled climate models, differing primarily in horizontal resolution and treatment of mesoscale eddies, were used to assess the impact of perturbations in wind stress and Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) melting on the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (SO MOC), which plays an important role in global climate regulation. The largest impact is found in the SO MOC lower limb, associated with the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which in both models is enhanced by wind and weakened by AIS meltwater perturbations. Even though both models under the AIS melting perturbation show similar AABW transport reductions of 4–5 Sv (50%–60%), the volume deflation of AABW south of 30°S is four times greater in the higher resolution simulation (−20 vs. −5 Sv). Water mass transformation (WMT) analysis reveals that surface‐forced dense water formation on the Antarctic shelf is absent in the higher resolution and reduced by half in the lower resolution model in response to the increased AIS melting. However, the decline of the AABW volume (and its inter‐model difference) far exceeds the surface‐forced WMT changes alone, which indicates that the divergent model responses arise from interactions between changes in surface forcing and interior mixing processes. This model divergence demonstrates an important source of uncertainty in climate modeling, and indicates that accurate shelf processes together with scenarios accounting for AIS melting are necessary for robust projections of the deep ocean's response to anthropogenic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1

The response of extreme precipitation to warming varies widely among climate models, especially in the tropics. In some models, there have been indications that the rate of response increases with warming – that the response is not linear. In this work, we investigate the evolution of extreme precipitation, quantified by the maximum accumulated precipitation in a day each year, in CESM1. We find that tropical- and global-average extreme precipitation are related to global mean surface temperature quadratically. This behavior is associated with an increase in the large scale fraction of extreme precipitation, and also strengthening circulation on extreme 25 precipitation days. Compared to other CMIP5 models, the nonlinearity in CESM1 is among the largest. One implication is that the difference between CESM1 simulations with full forcing and with fixed aerosols cannot be used to isolate the response of extreme precipitation to aerosols, as the resulting climates are not equally warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Synoptic-Scale Dynamics on Clouds and Radiation in High Southern Latitudes

High-latitudinal mixed-phase clouds significantly affect Earth's radiative balance. Observations of cloud and radiative properties from two field campaigns in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica were compared with two global climate model simulations. A cyclone compositing method was used to quantify “dynamics-cloud-radiation” relationships relative to the extratropical cyclone centers. Observations show larger asymmetry in cloud and radiative properties between western and eastern sectors at McMurdo compared with Macquarie Island. Most observed quantities at McMurdo are higher in the western (i.e., post-frontal) than the eastern (frontal) sector, including cloud fraction, liquid water path (LWP), net surface shortwave and longwave radiation (SW and LW), except for ice water path (IWP) being higher in the eastern sector. Here, the two models were found to overestimate cloud fraction and LWP at Macquarie Island but underestimate them at McMurdo Station. IWP is consistently underestimated at both locations, both sectors, and in all seasons. Biases of cloud fraction, LWP, and IWP are negatively correlated with SW biases and positively correlated with LW biases. The persistent negative IWP biases may have become one of the leading causes of radiative biases over the high southern latitudes, after correcting the underestimation of supercooled liquid water in the older model versions. By examining multi-scale factors from cloud microphysics to synoptic dynamics, this work will help increase the fidelity of climate simulations in this remote region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Local limits of detection for anthropogenic aerosol-cloud interactions

Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗