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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models (Final Technical Report)

This is the final report for a DOE-funded research project describing the outcome of research on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. The main results consist of extensive development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Lagged Diffusivity Method for Computing Total Variation Regularized Fluid Flow

There is a great deal of recent work using optical flow methods for analyzing the dynamics of fluids, and much attention has been paid to developing regularization schemes for variational approaches that are consistent with the physics of fluid flow. In this work we show that using total variation to regularize two different kinds of optical flow functionals leads to very good flow field reconstructions for the kinds of dynamical structures that appear in fluid flow. The first optical flow functional is the classical component-based conservation of intensity, and the second approach is to reconstruct the potential of the flow, rather than the flow components. In the two cases, total variation regularization corresponds to imposing different scientific priors on the solution, which we compute using a variation of the Lagged Diffusivity Fixed Point Iteration. Numerical details are presented, and the results are demonstrated on synthetic data and on a data-driven oceanic flow model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Comets as Messengers from the Early Solar System - Emerging Insights on Delivery of Water, Nitriles, and Organics to Earth

The question of exogenous delivery of water and organics to Earth and other young planets is of critical importance for understanding the origin of Earth's volatiles, and for assessing the possible existence of exo-planets similar to Earth. Viewed from a cosmic perspective, Earth is a dry planet, yet its oceans are enriched in deuterium by a large factor relative to nebular hydrogen and analogous isotopic enrichments in atmospheric nitrogen and noble gases are also seen. Why is this so? What are the implications for Mars? For icy Worlds in our Planetary System? For the existence of Earth-like exoplanets? An exogenous (vs. outgassed) origin for Earth's atmosphere is implied, and intense debate on the relative contributions of comets and asteroids continues - renewed by fresh models for dynamical transport in the protoplanetary disk, by revelations on the nature and diversity of volatile and rocky material within comets, and by the discovery of ocean-like water in a comet from the Kuiper Belt (cf., Mumma & Charnley 2011). Assessing the creation of conditions favorable to the emergence and sustenance of life depends critically on knowledge of the nature of the impacting bodies. Active comets have long been grouped according to their orbital properties, and this has proven useful for identifying the reservoir from which a given comet emerged (OC, KB) (Levison 1996). However, it is now clear that icy bodies were scattered into each reservoir from a range of nebular distances, and the comet populations in today's reservoirs thus share origins that are (in part) common. Comets from the Oort Cloud and Kuiper Disk reservoirs should have diverse composition, resulting from strong gradients in temperature and chemistry in the proto-planetary disk, coupled with dynamical models of early radial transport and mixing with later dispersion of the final cometary nuclei into the long-term storage reservoirs. The inclusion of material from the natal interstellar cloud is probable, for comets formed in the outer solar system.

Mumma, Michael J.↗

The dynamics and control of the Space Station polar platform

The Space Station polar platform will carry a variety of earth observation instruments for NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In this paper, the asymmetrical platform is modeled as three connected rigid bodies. A generalized angular momentum equation is employed to derive the rotational equations of motion. These equations are linearized and used for preliminary sizing of control devices using a classical control approach. Two control systems are considered to stabilize the platform and satisfy the pointing requirements. The first system is composed of a single variable-speed, double-gimbaled momentum wheel and the second consists of three-reaction wheels. The performance of each system is assessed using a linear optimal control approach.

Wahbah, M. M.↗

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earth Observing System. Volume 1, Part 2: Science and Mission Requirements. Working Group Report Appendix

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a planned NASA program, which will carry out multidisciplinary Earth science studies employing a variety of remote sensing techniques in the 1990's, as a prime mission, using the Space Station polar platform. Its primary goal is the generation of long term Earth science data sets of measurements and processes in the areas of agriculture, forestry, geology, hydrology, oceanography, snow and ice, troposphere and upper atmospheric chemistry, radiation and dynamics pertaining to global studies of Earth as a system, emphasizing the interactions and couplings of the atmospbere-ocean-land-cryosphere system. These results will provide the information needed to qualify our understanding of the global hydrological cycle, global biogeochemical cycles and global climate processes. This report provides the science rationale, recommended observational needs, the broad system configuration and a recommended implementation strategy to achieve the stated mission goals. The report is one volume of a proposed five volume set constituting the Phase A report as the Earth Observing System (EOS).

Goddard Space Flight Center↗

African land-cover classification using satellite data

Data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer sensor on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational series of meteorological satellites were used to classify land cover and monitor vegetation dynamics for Africa over a 19-month period. There was a correspondence between seasonal variations in the density and extent of green leaf vegetation and the patterns of rainfall associated with the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Regional variations, such as the 1983 drought in the Sahel of western Africa, were observed. Integration of the weekly satellite data with respect to time for a 12-month period produced a remotely sensed estimate of primary production based upon the density and duration of green leaf biomass. Eight of the 21-day composited data sets covering an 11-month period were used to produce a general land-cover classification that corresponded well with those of existing maps.

Tucker, C. J.↗

Intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An investigation is presented of coupled ocean-atmosphere models' behavior in an environment where atmospheric wave speeds are substantially reduced from dry atmospheric values by such processes as condensation-moisture convergence. Modes are calculated for zonally periodic, unbounded ocean-atmosphere systems, emphasizing the importance of an inclusion of prognostic atmosphere equations in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models with a view to simulations of intraseasonal variability and its possible interaction with interannual variability. The dynamics of low and high frequency modes are compared; both classes are sensitive to the degree to which surface wind anomalies are able to affect the evaporation rate.

Hirst, Anthony C.↗

The interpretation of crustal dynamics data in terms of plate motions and regional deformation near plate boundaries

The focus was in two broad areas during the most recent 6-month period: (1) the nature and dynamics of time dependent deformation and stress along major seismic zones; and (2) the nature of long-wavelength oceanic geoid anomalies in terms of lateral variations in upper mantle temperature and composition. The principle findings are described in the accompanying appendices.

Soloman, Sean C.↗

Upwelling-Induced Primary Productivity in Coastal Waters of the Black Sea: Impact on Algorithms for Remote Sensing

This research program was a collaborative effort to investigate the impact of rapid changes in the water column during coastal upwelling, on biological and optical properties. These properties are important for constructing region or event-specific algorithms for remote sensing of pigment concentration and primary productivity and for comparing these algorithms with those used for the development of large scale maps from ocean color. We successfully achieved the primary objective of this research project which was to study in situ the dynamics of rapid spatial and temporal changes in properties of the water column during, coastal upwelling off the Crimean Coast in the Black Sea. The work was a collaborative effort between a group of biological and physical oceanographers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and from two oceanographic research institutions in the Crimea, Ukraine, located near the study site, the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI) and the Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas (IBSS). The site was an ideal experimental model, both from a technical and economic standpoint, because of the predictable summer upwelling that occurs in the region and because of the availability of both a ship on call and laboratory and remote sensing facilities at the nearby marine institutes. We used a combination of shipboard measurements and remote sensing to investigate the physical evolution of rapid upwelling events and their impact on photoplankton and water column optical properties. The field work involved a two day cruise for mooring, deployment and a three day baseline survey cruise, followed by an eleven day primary cruise during, a summer upwelling event (anticipated by monitoring local winds and tracked by remote sensing imaging). An MHI ship was outfitted and used for these purposes.

Goldman, Joel C.↗

Low Wind Speed Radar Backscatter Measurements at C- and Ku-Band Obtained During the Surface Wave Dynamics Experiment

Radar backscatter measurements collected at both C- and Ku-Band during the recent SurfaceWaves Dynamics Experiment (SWADE) on 1 March 1991 show dramatic variabilities of thenormalized radar cross section (sigma degree) of the ocean surface at low wind speed. Additionally,measurements of the sigma degree in the cross wind direction fluctuated much more than the sigmadegree in the upwind direction. The C- and Ku-band data are quite similar, both exhibiting a morepronounced roll off of sigma degree with decreasing neutral stability wind than indicated bypreviously published empirical model functions. The data show extremely large azimuthalmodulations, in some cases greater than 20 dB, and show good qualitative agreement with theazimuthal modulation predicted.

Carson, S. C.↗

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Racherla, P. N.↗

The Arctic Sea Ice Cover of 2016: A Year of Record-Low Highs and High-Than-Expected Lows

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness†of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/ dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New Arctic", sea ice regime.

sea ice↗

Control of Vibration Systems with Mechanical Motion Rectifier and their Applications to Vehicle Suspension and Ocean Energy Harvester

Vibration control is a large branch in control research, because all moving systems may induce desired or undesired vibration. Due to the limitation of passive system’s adaptability and changing excitation input, vibration control brings the solution to change system dynamic with desired behavior to fulfill control targets. According to preference, vibration control can be separated into two categories: vibration reduction and vibration amplification. Lots of research papers only examine one aspect in vibration control. The thesis investigates the control development for both control targets with two different control applications: vehicle suspension and ocean wave energy converter. It develops control methods for both systems with simplified modeling setup, then followed by the application of a novel mechanical motion rectifier (MMR) gearbox that uses mechanical one-way clutches in both systems. The flow is from the control for common system to the control design for a specifically designed system. In the thesis, active (model predictive control: MPC), semi-active (Skyhook, skyhook-power driven damper: SHPDD, hybrid model predictive control: HMPC), and passive control (Latching Control) methods are developed for different applications or control performance comparison on single system. The thesis also studies about new type of system with switching mechanism, in which other papers do not talk too much and possible control research direction to deal with such complicated system in vibration control. The state-space modeling for both systems are provided in the thesis with detailed model of the MMR gearbox. From the simulation, it can be shown that in the vehicle suspension application, the controlled MMR gearbox can be effective in improving vehicle ride comfort by 29.2% compared to that of the traditional hydraulic suspension. In the ocean wave energy converter, the controlled MMR WEC with simple latching control can improve the power generation by 57% compared to the passive MMR WEC. Besides, the passive MMR WEC also shows its advantage on the passive direct drive WEC in power generation improvement. From the control development flow for the MMR system, the limitation of the MMR gearbox is also identified, which introduces the future work in developing active-MMR gearbox by using an electromagnetic clutch. Some possible control development directions on the active-MMR is also mentioned at the end of the thesis to provide reference for future works.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Observations of the polar regions from satellites using active and passive microwave techniques

Observations of the ocean ice, ice sheets, ice edges, and ocean waves in the Antarctic, performed by the Seasat and Nimbus-7 satellites are described. Specific features of the Seasat altimeter, the SAR, the Seasat-A Scatterometer System, and the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are discussed, together with the advantages and limitations of each instrument as applied to the study of ice dynamics. The Nimbus-7 SMMR algorithm for calculating sea-ice concentrations is presented. In addition, the Seasat altimeter-derived data on wind speed and wave heights in the Southern Ocean, and on the ice sheets of the Antarctica and Greenland were evaluated.

Swift, C. T.↗

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗