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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require expeditious response for model analyses designed to inform and drive integrated Earth system assessments. To meet this challenge, the Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF), a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of ESMs, was designed and developed. The initial implementation of the REF, constructed to meet the near-term needs of the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track, builds upon four disparate community evaluation and benchmarking tools that are coupled together using the Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) framework. The REF runs within a containerized workflow for portability and reproducibility and is aimed at generating and organizing diagnostics covering a variety of model variables. The REF leverages well documented observational datasets to provide assessments of model fidelity across a collection of diagnostics. All diagnostics were identified and selected with community involvement and consultation. Operational integration with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) will permit automated execution of the REF for selected diagnostics as soon as model output data are published on ESGF by the originating modeling centers. The REF is designed to be portable across a range of current computational platforms to facilitate use by modeling centers for assessing the evolution of model versions or gauging the relative performance of CMIP simulations before being published on ESGF. When integrated into production simulation workflows, results from the REF provide immediate quantitative feedback that allows model developers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues. After the REF is released to the community, its subsequent development and support will be prioritized by an international consortium of scientists and engineers, enabling a broader impact across Earth science disciplines. For instance, the REF will facilitate improvements to models and will enhance confidence in model projections through process-based selection of models based on their performance with respect to observations. Production of reproducible diagnostics and community-based assessments are key features of the REF. Furthermore, providing interoperability with existing evaluation packages assures that contributions from previous community efforts will be available for use in future model intercomparison projects.

Hoffman, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158024134)↗

Toward the core-edge coupling of delta-f and total-f gyrokinetic models

The coupling of core reduced delta-f and edge total-f gyrokinetic models could enable a significant speed-up of the whole device modeling simulations. It is thus interesting to compare these models in the core where they will be coupled. The main difference between these models is the presence of the zeroth order term on the right-hand side of the total-f gyrokinetic equation. This term is responsible for driving a radial electric field that is also associated with Geodesic acoustic mode-like oscillations. To investigate the coupling between these models, the subsequent large-scale gyrokinetic 3D turbulence simulations have been performed starting from an already saturated gyrokinetic axisymmetric equilibria (collisions are not included). This work has also been extended to couple different axisymmetric and turbulent models available in XGC. It is shown that the radial electric field and its drive have to be taken care of consistently while coupling different models together.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Comparison of vibration dissociation coupling and radiative heat transfer models for AOTV/AFE flowfields

A series of detailed studies comparing various vibration dissociation coupling models, reaction systems and rates, and radiative heating models has been conducted for the nonequilibrium stagnation region of an AFE/AOTV vehicle. Atomic and molecular nonequilibrium radiation correction factors have been developed and applied to various absorption coefficient step models, and a modified vibration dissociation coupling model has been shown to yield good vibration/electronic temperature and concentration profiles. While results indicate sensitivity to the choice of vibration dissociation coupling model and to the nitrogen electron impact ionization rate, by proper combinations accurate flowfield and radiative heating results can be obtained. These results indicate that nonequilibrium effects significantly affect the flowfield and the radiative heat transfer. However, additional work is needed in ionization chemistry and absorption coefficient modeling.

Carlson, Leland A.↗

Pulsed power to control growth of silicon nanoparticles in low temperature flowing plasmas

Low-temperature plasmas have seen increasing use for synthesizing high-quality, mono-disperse nanoparticles (NPs). Recent work has highlighted that an important process in NP growth in plasmas is particle trapping—small, negatively charged nanoparticles become trapped by the positive electrostatic potential in the plasma, even if only momentarily charged. In this article, results are discussed from a computational investigation into how pulsing the power applied to an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) reactor may be used for controlling the size of NPs synthesized in the plasma. The model system is an ICP at 1 Torr to grow silicon NPs from an Ar/SiH 4 gas mixture. This system was simulated using a two-dimensional plasma hydrodynamics model coupled to a three-dimensional kinetic NP growth and trajectory tracking model. The effects of pulse frequency and pulse duty cycle are discussed. We identified separate regimes of pulsing where particles become trapped for one pulsed cycle, a few cycles, and many cycles—each having noticeable effects on particle size distributions. For the same average power, pulsing can produce a stronger trapping potential for particles when compared to continuous wave power, potentially increasing particle mono-dispersity. Pulsing may also offer a larger degree of control over particle size for the same average power. Experimental confirmation of predicted trends is discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Nonlinear Schur Complement Solver for CFD-Based Multidisciplinary Models

CFD-based multidisciplinary models are the fundamental building blocks of multidis- ciplinary design optimization frameworks. Linear and nonlinear solutions of these coupled models are difficult, especially when the Jacobian matrices represent a saddle point problem, where a block-diagonal corresponding to a discipline is non-invertible. These scenarios necessitate the use of a coupled solver algorithm such as the Newton’s method instead of the popular block Gauss– Seidel-based methods because of this non-invertible block. To address this challenge, we introduce a nonlinear Schur complement solver suitable for CFD-based multidisciplinary models. The solver leverages the specialized linear and nonlinear solvers of the CFD code, and therefore, does not require the solution of a large coupled linear system as the coupled Newton’s method. Further- more, because the solver primarily uses the specialized linear and nonlinear solvers of the CFD code, it does not suffer from the same robustness limitations as the coupled Newton’s method. In this work, we will implement this solver in NASA’s OpenMDAO framework and demonstrate its effectiveness using a CFD-based aeropropulsive model. The solver will contribute to the develop- ment of aeropropulsive design optimization and CFD-based design optimization methods with the ultimate goal of accelerating the design and integration of advanced propulsion systems.

Nonlinear Solvers↗

Dynamic Triple-Mode Sorption and Outgassing in Materials

Moisture uptake and outgassing can be detrimental to a system by altering the chemical and mechanical properties of materials within the system over time. In this work, we conducted isotherm experiments to investigate dynamic moisture sorption and desorption in markedly different materials, i.e., a polymeric material, Sylgard-184 and a ceramic aluminosilicate material, Zircar RS-1200, at different temperatures (30 °C–70 °C) by varying the water activity (0.0–0.90). Sylgard-184 showed a linear sorption and outgassing behavior with no-hysteresis over the entire temperature and water activity range considered here. Whereas, the sorption and outgassing of Zircar RS-1200 was highly non-linear with significant hysteresis, especially at higher water activities, at all temperatures considered here. The type of hysteresis suggested the presence of mesopores in Zircar RS-1200, whereas the lack of hysteresis in Sylgard-184 indicates that it has a nonporous structure. A diffusion model coupled with a dynamic, triple-mode sorption (Langmuir, Henry, and pooling modes) model employed in this study matched our experimental data very well and provides mechanistic insight into the processes. Our triple-mode sorption model was adaptive enough to (1) model these distinctly different materials and (2) predict sorption and outgassing under conditions that are distinctly different from the parameterization experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microbial models with data‐driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change

Abstract Long‐term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon ( SOC ). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data‐constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC , whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP 5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP 5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2‐pool model) and 11% (4‐pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP 5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2‐pool microbial model. The 4‐pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values.

Hararuk, Oleksandra↗

Investigation of LSM-YSZ Composite Cathode Performance Degradation with a Multistep Charge Transfer Model

The long-term performance degradation of LSM/YSZ composite cathodes is investigated via calibrated multiphysics simulation with a multistep oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) model and structural coarsening data from a phase field study. Multiphysics simulations, including a multistep ORR mechanism, are first developed for better understanding of the limiting processes in solid oxide fuel cells. The multistep ORR mechanism includes two parallel pathways, surface pathway and bulk pathway, which consist of elementary reaction steps. The multiphysics model is simultaneously calibrated with experimental polarization curves and impedance behavior for various air/fuel supply conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a multistep ORR model is calibrated with such datasets. Next, the calibrated simulations are utilized to simulate a 2D half-cell constructed with measured microstructural data and random heterogeneity. Finally, the long-term performance degradation of the half-cell is predicted by the calibrated multiphysics model coupled with structural coarsening trends simulated using a phase field-based coarsening model. Degradation of both polarization curves and impedance behavior is investigated. Thorough analyses, including changes of contributions from different pathways, the resistance components, and overall reaction order, are performed to provide more insights into cathode performance degradation due to grain coarsening phenomena.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Influence of Soil Moisture and Wind on Rainfall Distribution and Intensity in Florida

Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.

Baker, R. David↗

Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Sea Breeze Initiated Precipitation Over Florida

Land surface-atmosphere interaction plays a key role in the development of summertime convection and precipitation over the Florida peninsula. Land-ocean temperature contrasts induce sea-breeze circulations along both coasts. Clouds develop along sea-breeze fronts, and significant precipitation can occur during the summer months. However, other factors such as soil moisture distribution and coastline curvature may modulate the timing, location, and intensity of sea breeze initiated precipitation. Here, we investigate the role of soil moisture and coastline curvature on Florida precipitation using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data from the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE) collected on 27 July 1991. Our numerical simulations suggest that a realistic distribution of soil moisture influences the location and intensity of precipitation but not the timing of precipitation. In contrast, coastline curvature affects the timing and location of precipitation but has little influence on peak rainfall rates. However, both factors (soil moisture and coastline curvature) are required to fully account for observed rainfall amounts.

Baker, R. David↗

Ozone Sensitivity to Varying Greenhouse Gases and Ozone-Depleting Substances in CCMI-1 Simulations

Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.

CCMI↗

The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January is More Difficult to Predict than February

This study examines the within−season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December−March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1−month lead GEOS coupled model forecasts of precipitation over North America is largest (smallest) for February (January), with similar results in uncoupled mode. A key finding is that the relatively poor January skillis the result ofthe model placing the main circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific slightly to the west of the observed, resulting inprecipitation anomalies that lie off the coast instead of over land as observed. In contrast, during February the observed circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific shifts westward, lining up with the predicted anomaly which is essentially unchanged from January, resulting in both the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies remaining off the coast. Furthermore, the largest precipitation anomalies occur along the southern tier of states associated with an eastward extended jet–something that the models capture reasonably well. Simulations with a stationary wave model indicate that the placement of January El Niño response to the west of the observed over the northeast Pacificis the result of biases in the January climatological stationary waves, rather than errors in the tropical Pacific El Niño heating anomalies in January. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the relatively poor simulation of the observed January climatology, characterized by a strengthened North Pacific jet and enhanced ridge over western North America, can be traced back to biases in the January climatology heating over the Tibet region and the tropical western Pacific.

Young-kwon Lim↗

Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on Water Quality in Belize

Land use and land cover (LULC) change can have detrimental effects on water quality. In Belize, agricultural expansion creates the risk of increased sediment load and excess nutrients in runoff water, while deforestation removes potential infiltration sites for this outflow. Climate change and evolving precipitation rates can intensify the quantity of runoff, further enabling the flow of sediments and excess nutrients out to the lagoon surrounding the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS). This study estimated future water quality in Belize by projecting LULC change through 2090 across Belize’s major watersheds based on observed trends from 2008-2018. Those LULC projections were subsequently combined with soil type data, elevation, and precipitation rates into a hydrologic model to produce runoff estimates as a proxy for water quality. The two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) scenarios employed in the study represented bookend climate change scenarios, and both predicted lower precipitation rates in Belize over the next century due to climate change. When holding LULC change constant, these climate scenarios projected a decrease in runoff, suggesting a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff. The southern watersheds in particular are projected to experience greater decreases in annual rainfall and runoff by 2090. When holding climate constant, runoff increased by approximately 2.8% in the Conservation-focused LULC scenario by 2090, which was 28% lower than the Business as Usual scenario and 42% lower than the Development scenario.

water resources↗

A NEW EQUATION OF STATE FOR NEUTRON STAR MATTER WITH NUCLEI IN THE CRUST AND HYPERONS IN THE CORE

The equation of state for neutron stars in a wide-density range at zero temperature is constructed. The chiral quark-meson coupling model within relativistic Hartree-Fock approximation is adopted for uniform nuclear matter. The coupling constants are determined so as to reproduce the experimental data of atomic nuclei and hypernuclei. In the crust region, nuclei are taken into account within the Thomas-Fermi calculation. All octet baryons are considered in the core region, while only Ξ{sup –} appears in neutron stars. The resultant maximum mass of neutron stars is 1.95 M{sub ☉}, which is consistent with the constraint from the recently observed massive pulsar, PSR J1614-2230.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Effects of Model Resolution, Physics, and Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in CESM1.3

Two high–resolution versions of a Coupled Earth System Model (CESM1.3: 0.25° atmosphere, 1° ocean; CESM1.1: 0.25° atmosphere, 0.1° ocean) are compared to the standard resolution CESM1.1 and CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere, 1° ocean). The CESM1.3 versions are documented, and the consequences of model resolution, air–sea coupling, and physics in the atmospheric models are studied with regard to storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere as represented by 850–hPa eddy kinetic energy. Increasing the resolution from 1° to 0.25° in the atmosphere (same physics) coupled to the 1° ocean intensifies the strength of the storm tracks closer to observations. The 0.25° atmosphere with the older CESM1.1 physics coupled to the 0.1° ocean has fewer low clouds, warmer Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures, a weaker meridional temperature gradient, and a degraded storm track simulation compared to the 0.25° atmosphere with CESM1.3 physics coupled to the 1° ocean. Furthermore, deficient physics in the atmospheric model can negate the gains attained by higher resolution in atmosphere and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Unravelling the Physics Associated with the Production of Extremely Dense Plasma States of Microscale (Final Report) Nanosecond-pulsed Discharges

The aim of this project is to study and establish the physical mechanisms that contribute to the formation of anomalously dense plasmas in high-pressure nanosecond-pulsed discharges. These discharges have a broad range of applications such as plasma-assisted combustion, plasma flow actuators, biomedical sterilization and exotic materials synthesis. The structure and formation of these discharges, producing high plasma densities of ~10 14 -10 15 cm -3 , are well-studied and understood. Fast-pulsed microscale high-pressure discharges can be driven to even higher densities of > 10 19 cm -3 , approaching warm dense matter conditions. The mechanisms that generate these plasmas have not been understood. Analysis of the warm dense matter state under laboratory conditions is an expensive and non-trivial endeavor. For instance, dense plasmas can be generated by electrical explosions of metal foils and wires. Plasmas generated after the explosion have a short lifetime and often present difficult conditions for diagnostics. Generation of dense plasmas was also achieved during high-voltage nanosecond pulsed discharges when the so-called explosive electron emission is obtained. Unfortunately, this process is very difficult to control for the studies of warm dense matter. In our recent study, we have shown that additional heating of plasma by lasers can further increase the density of plasma and even lead to the fully ionized state. This method, potentially, allows better control of the plasma parameters. In this work, we studied a second stage laser-heated micro-discharge using a self-consistent one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision (1D PIC-MCC) model coupled with Maxwell’s equations. We predicted the generation of a fully ionized plasma on the picosecond time scale. However, this model considered the plasma as an ideal gas despite the high pressure and the nearly fully ionized state. The ideal plasma model assumes that the dilute gas approximation is valid, where the inter-particle interactions are negligible. For charged particles this assumption holds as long as the shielded Coulomb potential assumption is valid. For very high plasma densities, this concept breaks down since the Debye sphere surrounding each charged particle no longer contains enough electrons to statistically provide the shielding of the single particle Coulomb interaction potential. At such densities, the plasma can no longer be described as ideal and non-ideal coupling effects need to be considered. In this report, we elucidate our recent work of developing a PIC-MCC model with improvements for non-ideal plasma conditions due to Coulomb coupling at high densities. In particular, we study the interaction of green light radiation and a dense microplasma, and explore the non-ideal plasma effects in this interaction. In this computational model, we implement the two most important non-ideal effects: ionization potential depression (IPD) and enhanced collision cross sections. Our primary goal is to study the physics associated with electromagnetic (EM) wave heating, also called the second-stage wave-heating, and establish the role of plasma non-ideality in this phenomenon. Our secondary goal is to improve the chemistry mechanism of the 1D PIC-MCC model by including a more detailed excited species collision treatment. At high pressures, stepwise ionization from excited species might play an important role in the ionization process. Previously, this ionization mechanism was neglected due to the excitation collision cross section of xenon being smaller than that of ionization. However, a preliminary study showed that the excited species density in the initial microplasma was an order of magnitude higher than the electron density. Therefore, my aim is to determine the significance of this additional ionization pathway to the plasma generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗