SEARCH · Search NASA
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El NiNo evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.
A mathematical representation for the electromagnetic force field and the fluid flow field in a coreless induction furnace is presented. The fluid flow field was represented by writing the axisymmetric turbulent Navier-Stokes equation, containing the electromagnetic body force term. The electromagnetic body force field was calculated by using a technique of mutual inductances. The kappa-epsilon model was employed for evaluating the turbulent viscosity and the resultant differential equations were solved numerically. Theoretically predicted velocity fields are in reasonably good agreement with the experimental measurements reported by Hunt and Moore; furthermore, the agreement regarding the turbulent intensities are essentially quantitative. These results indicate that the kappa-epsilon model provides a good engineering representation of the turbulent recirculating flows occurring in induction furnaces. At this stage it is not clear whether the discrepancies between measurements and the predictions, which were not very great in any case, are attributable either to the model or to the measurement techniques employed.
Surface soil moisture (mrsos) and vertically integrated soil moisture (mrsol) over the top 10 cm should, by definition, be physically consistent in Earth System Models (ESMs). However, an evaluation of nine CMIP6 models reveals substantial inconsistencies: in some models, mrsos and integrated mrsol agree globally; in others, they align only in specific regions; and in a few, they diverge across all grid cells. These discrepancies arise from a combination of factors, including metadata errors, inconsistent variable definitions, or diagnostic sequencing within the model. We demonstrate how such issues can lead to significant biases, even when both variables are present and seemingly well-defined. As model complexity increases and multi-model comparisons become more common, assumptions about variable equivalence may lead to flawed conclusions. This study highlights the need for routine consistency checks, improved metadata standards, and community-wide practices that ensure reliability of derived variables across ESM outputs, particularly in preparation for CMIP7.
We present a supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model in which the new physics contributions to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon can be more than an order of magnitude larger than in the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model. The extended electroweak symmetry breaking sector of the model can consistently accommodate Higgs bosons and Higgsinos with O (1) couplings to muons. We find that sleptons with masses in the multi-TeV range can comfortably explain the recently confirmed discrepancy in the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. We discuss additional phenomenological aspects of the model, including its effects on tau flavor changing decays.
Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.
The long-pulse operation of the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator experiment is scheduled to begin in 2020. This operational phase will be equipped with water-cooled plasma facing components to allow for longer pulse durations. Certain simulated plasma scenarios have been shown to produce heat fluxes that surpass the technological limits on the edges of the divertor target elements during steady-state operation. In order to reduce the heat load on the target elements, the addition of a “scraper element” (SE) is under investigation. The SE is composed of 24 water-cooled carbon fiber reinforced carbon composite monoblock units. Multiple full-scale prototypes have been tested in the GLADIS high heat flux test facility. Previous computational studies revealed discrepancies between the simulations and experimental measurements. In this work, single-phase thermal-hydraulics modeling was performed in ANSYS CFX to identify potential causes for such discrepancies. Possible explanations investigated were the effects of a non-uniform thermal contact resistance and a potential misalignment of the monoblock fibers. And while the difference between the experimental and computational results was not resolved by a non-uniform thermal contact resistance, the computational results provided insight into the potential performance of a W7-X monoblock unit. Circumferential temperature distributions highlighted the expected boiling regions of such a unit. Finally, simulations revealed that modest angles of fiber misalignment in the monoblocks result in asymmetries at the unit edges and provide temperature differences similar to the experimental results.
Dibutyl ether (DBE) is a promising biofuel due to its high cetane number (~ 100) and high volumetric energy density (31.6 MJ/L). It could either be used directly in compression ignition engines or blended with other conventional or renewable fuels. Oxidation and pyrolysis kinetics of DBE are not well known, particularly at high pressures. In this work, we have experimentally investigated the chemical kinetics of DBE in three domains: (a) ignition delay time measurements in a rapid compression machine over T = 550–650 K, P = 10, 20, 40 bar, φ = 0.5, 1; (b) ignition delay time measurements in a shock tube over T = 900–1300 K, P = 20, 40 bar, φ = 0.5, 1; (c) laser-based carbon monoxide speciation measurements in a shock tube during DBE pyrolysis and oxidation over T = 1100–1400 K, P = 20 bar. Pressure time-histories measured in RCM experiments exhibited unique 3-stage and 4-stage ignition behavior predominantly at fuel-lean conditions. Experimental data were compared with the predictions of two recent chemical kinetic models of DBE. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to identify key reactions which may have caused the discrepancy between experiments and simulations. We found that the rate of decomposition of DBE may need to be revisited to improve the oxidative and pyrolytic predictions of DBE kinetic model.
The Muon $g$ - 2 experiment at Fermilab (E989) is currently measuring the muon magnetic anomaly with a goal precision of 140 part per billion, which will be a fourfold precision improvement over the current best measurement by the previous Muon $g$ -2 experiment at the Brookhaven Laboratory (BNL). The BNL-measured value of the muon magnetic anomaly and the corresponding Standard Model (SM) best estimate differ by more than three standard deviation which inspired the current measurement as well as a theoretical drive for a significantly more precise calculation of the muon magnetic anomaly to rule out (or establish) statistical fluctuation as the origin of such a huge discrepancy. Stable central values along with 4-fold precision improvements in both theoretical (SM) and experimental fronts, would imply a ~ 7σ discrepancy and that will be a clear hint of the physics beyond the Standard Model. Such an unprecedented precision demands state-of-the-art technological improvements in all involved components to keep the systematic uncertainty below 70 ppb. This paper reports the current status of the E989 experiment after two years of data acquisition.
This article examines the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to predict the response of a floating wind platform to irregular-wave excitation. This work was conducted as part of the Reproducible CFD Joint Industry Project for Floating Offshore Wind Applications and involved verification across several participants and modeling tools and validation against experiments. The authors pay special attention to the uncertainties in both CFD results and experimental measurements. In this work, we perform detailed comparisons of the incident waves and the motion of a moored structure. The nonlinear, low-frequency resonance motion is of particular interest because it potentially drives the mooring and tower-base loads. The verification and validation study is partially successful in that the CFD simulations capture the low-frequency slow-drift motion well but underpredict the low-frequency pitch resonance. This underprediction can be attributed in part to the CFD incident waves, which showed some discrepancies with the experimental waves, especially around extreme events. The effects of the wave discrepancies are also estimated and investigated using a mid-fidelity OpenFAST model. Overall, the present study increases our confidence in using CFD simulations to predict the global performance of offshore wind platforms in irregular waves and to produce data for the calibration of lower-fidelity models.
This study investigates precipitation probability and its future changes using simulations from the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-resolving model, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. For the precipitation probability comparison between models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) during 1998–2008, the difference is greatly reduced by regridding to a common coarser resolution, but the difference signs largely remain. Both NICAM and CMIP6 model ensemble mean show less global-mean nonprecipitation fractions than observations, but NICAM agrees better with observations. For global-mean light precipitation probability, NICAM (CMIP6 model ensemble mean) is smaller (larger) than TRMM. NICAM shows higher heavy precipitation probability than TRMM in native resolutions, but it is close to TRMM and falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding. For the precipitation probability changes from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts an increase in nonprecipitation and extreme heavy (>100 mm/day) precipitation probability but a slight decrease in the probability for precipitation <100 mm/day. After regridding to 2.5°, the precipitation intensity where the probability starts to increase becomes ~20 mm/day and the relative increases in nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability become much larger. Future heavy precipitation probability relative increases from CMIP6 models are much larger than NICAM at their native resolutions, but NICAM falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding, indicating robust future increase (decrease) in heavy (light) precipitation probability regardless of underlying convection treatments. Discrepancy, however, exists in the projected nonprecipitation fraction changes: NICAM shows that nonprecipitation probability will increase over most of low and middle latitudes where CMIP6 models show less increases and even decreases.
Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.
We consider proton decay and $\mathbf {g_\mu - 2}$ in flipped SU(5) GUT models. We first study scenarios in which the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters are constrained to be universal at some high scale M in above the standard GUT scale where the QCD and electroweak SU(2) couplings unify. In this case the proton lifetime is typically > rsim10 36 years, too long to be detected in the foreseeable future, and the supersymmetric contribution to $\mathbf {g_\mu - 2}$ is too small to contribute significantly to resolving the discrepancy between the experimental measurement and data-driven calculations within the Standard Model. However, we identify a region of the constrained flipped SU(5) parameter space with large couplings between the 10- and 5-dimensional GUT Higgs representations where p → e + π 0 decay may be detectable in the Hyper-Kamiokande experiment now under construction, though the contribution to $\mathbf {g_\mu - 2}$ is still small. A substantial contribution to $\mathbf {g_\mu - 2}$ is possible, however, if the universality constraints on the soft supersymmetry-breaking masses are relaxed. We find a ‘quadrifecta’ region where observable proton decay co-exists with a (partial) supersymmetric resolution of the $\mathbf {g_\mu - 2}$ discrepancy and acceptable values of m h and the relic LSP density.
This paper discusses the modeling of experiments that measure iron opacity in local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) using laser-driven hohlraums at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). A previous set of experiments fielded at Sandia's Z facility [Bailey et al., Nature 517, 56 (2015)] have shown up to factors of two discrepancies between the theory and experiment, casting doubt on the validity of the opacity models. The purpose of the new experiments is to make corroborating measurements at the same densities and temperatures, with the initial measurements made at a temperature of 160 eV and an electron density of 0.7 × 1022 cm−3. The X-ray hot spots of a laser-driven hohlraum are not in LTE, and the iron must be shielded from a direct line-of-sight to obtain the data [Perry et al., Phys. Rev. B 54, 5617 (1996)]. This shielding is provided either with the internal structure (e.g., baffles) or external wall shapes that divide the hohlraum into a laser-heated portion and an LTE portion. In contrast, most inertial confinement fusion hohlraums are simple cylinders lacking complex gold walls, and the design codes are not typically applied to targets like those for the opacity experiments. We will discuss the initial basis for the modeling using LASNEX, and the subsequent modeling of five different hohlraum geometries that have been fielded on the NIF to date. This includes a comparison of calculated and measured radiation temperatures.
Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, is a critical challenge in high-speed machining operations, affecting tool life, product surface quality, and overall process efficiency. While machine learning models trained on simulated data have shown promise in detecting chatter, their real-world applicability remains uncertain due to discrepancies between simulated and actual machining environments. The primary goal of this study is to bridge the gap between simulation-based machine learning models and real-world applications by developing and validating a Random Forest-based chatter detection system. This research focuses on improving manufacturing efficiency through reliable chatter detection by integrating Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL). The study applies a Random Forest classification model trained on over 140,000 simulated machining datasets, incorporating techniques like Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL) to adapt the model for real-world operational data. The model is validated against 1600 real-world machining datasets, achieving an accuracy of 86.1%, with strong precision and recall scores. The results demonstrate the model’s robustness and potential for practical implementation in industrial settings, highlighting challenges such as sensor noise and variability in machining conditions. This work advances the use of predictive analytics in machining processes, offering a data-driven solution to improve manufacturing efficiency through more reliable chatter detection.
We measured and modeled near infrared extinction of nuclear waste glasses from 300 °C to 1150 °C to enable predictive radiation heat transfer and thermal conductivity estimates. A composition and redox informed model resolved contributions from key chromophores (Fe+2-O-Fe+3, V+4, free and bonded ?Si-OH groups) and, when present, spinel particles that can cause strong scattering. The model reproduced measured absorption from room temperature up to 1150 °C, with minor discrepancies near 1 µm (likely due to possible trace impurities) and 2.5 µm (linked to uncertainty in hydroxy groups). Spectra showed silicate melts were semitransparent mainly in the 0.5–4.0 µm window, responsible for radiation thermal conductivity that generally increases with increasing temperature. We quantified the dependence of effective thermal conductivity on dissolved water and provided distributions across >100 LAW/HLW/DFHLW melts at 1150 °C, supporting improved melter heat transfer modeling.
ABSTRACT Using the GAEA semi-analytic model, we analyse the connection between Damped Ly α systems (DLAs) and H i in galaxies. Our state-of-the-art semi-analytic model is tuned to reproduce the local galaxy H i mass function, and that also reproduces other important galaxy properties, including the galaxy mass–gas metallicity relation. To produce catalogues of simulated DLAs we throw 105 random lines of sight in a composite simulated volume: dark matter haloes with log$(\frac{M_{200}}{ {\rm M}_{\odot }}) \ge 11.5$ are extracted from the Millennium Simulation, while for $9.2 \le \log (\frac{M_{200}}{ \mathrm{M}_{\odot }})\lt 11.5$ we use the Millennium II, and for $8 \le \log (\frac{M_{200}}{\mathrm{M}_{\odot }}) \lt 9.2$ a halo occupation distribution model. At 2 < z < 3, where observational data are more accurate, our fiducial model predicts the correct shape of the column density distribution function, but its normalization falls short of the observations, with the discrepancy increasing at higher redshift. The agreement with observations is significantly improved increasing both the H i masses and the disc radii of model galaxies by a factor of 2, as implemented ‘a posteriori’ in our 2M−2R model. In the redshift range of interest, haloes with $M_{200} \ge {10}^{11} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ give the major contribution to ΩDLA, and the typical DLA host halo mass is $\sim \!{10}^{11} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$. The simulated DLA metallicity distribution is in relatively good agreement with observations, but our model predicts an excess of DLAs at low metallicities. Our results suggest possible improvements for the adopted modelling of the filtering mass and metal ejection in low-mass haloes.
Ensuring the efficient removal of decay heat from the reactor vessel is essential for the safety of advanced reactor technologies. Several Generation-IV concepts incorporate variations in the reactor vessel cooling systems to achieve this objective. High-temperature gas-cooled reactors utilize a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS), a passive ex-vessel system designed to operate without active components or external power during accident conditions. The RCCS removes decay heat primarily through radiative and convective heat transfer mechanisms. Here, this study presents a comprehensive validation of a computational fluid dynamics Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model for the University of Wisconsin-Madison air-cooled RCCS facility. Validation was conducted for both high- and low-power natural convection cases under a uniform heating profile. Near-wall resolution was found to be critical for accurately modeling natural convection in the RCCS; employing an all-𝑦 + wall treatment resulted in wall temperature discrepancies exceeding 50 °𝐶 compared to a wall-resolved mesh. Thermal-hydraulic behaviors under natural and forced convection conditions were compared within the heated cavity and RCCS. A turbulence model sensitivity analysis indicated that low-Reynolds number k-ɛ, k-ω shear stress transport (SST), and Reynolds stress transport models produce similar wall temperature predictions. A buoyancy modeling sensitivity study revealed that the Boussinesq approximation significantly underpredicted thermal-hydraulic behavior in the RCCS. Based on these findings, modeling recommendations are provided. The validated data set along with identified sensitivities refine the modeling of natural convection in the RCCS. The information produced by this study supports RCCS design, optimization, and safety evaluations, enabling the calibration and verification of reduced-order thermal-hydraulic models.
New validation of global, nonlinear, ion-scale gyrokinetic simulations (GYRO) is carried out for L- and I-mode plasmas on Alcator C-Mod, utilizing heat fluxes, profile stiffness, and temperature fluctuations. Previous work at C-Mod found that ITG/TEM-scale GYRO simulations can match both electron and ion heat fluxes within error bars in I-mode [White PoP 2015], suggesting that multi-scale (cross-scale coupling) effects [Howard PoP 2016] may be less important in I-mode than in L-mode. New results presented here, however, show that global, nonlinear, ion-scale GYRO simulations are able to match the experimental ion heat flux, but underpredict electron heat flux (at most radii), electron temperature fluctuations, and perturbative thermal diffusivity in both L- and I-mode. Linear addition of electron heat flux from electron scale runs does not resolve this discrepancy. These results indicate that single-scale simulations do not sufficiently describe the I-mode core transport, and that multi-scale (coupled electron- and ion-scale) transport models are needed. A preliminary investigation with multi-scale TGLF, however, was unable to resolve the discrepancy between ion-scale GYRO and experimental electron heat fluxes and perturbative diffusivity, motivating further work with multi-scale GYRO simulations and a more comprehensive study with multi-scale TGLF.