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DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Lattice Boltzmann Modeling Framework for Pore-Scale Fluid Flow and Reactive Transport

In this paper, we propose a modeling framework for pore-scale fluid flow and reactive transport based on a coupled lattice Boltzmann model (LBM). We develop a modeling interface to integrate the LBM modeling code parallel lattice Boltzmann solver and the PHREEQC reaction solver using multiple flow and reaction cell mapping schemes. The major advantage of the proposed workflow is the high modeling flexibility obtained by coupling the geochemical model with the LBM fluid flow model. Consequently, the model is capable of executing one or more complex reactions within desired cells while preserving the high data communication efficiency between the two codes. Meanwhile, the developed mapping mechanism enables the flow, diffusion, and reactions in complex pore-scale geometries. We validate the coupled code in a series of benchmark numerical experiments, including 2D single-phase Poiseuille flow and diffusion, 2D reactive transport with calcite dissolution, as well as surface complexation reactions. The simulation results show good agreement with analytical solutions, experimental data, and multiple other simulation codes. In addition, we design an AI-based optimization workflow and implement it on the surface complexation model to enable increased capacity of the coupled modeling framework. Compared to the manual tuning results proposed in the literature, our workflow demonstrates fast and reliable model optimization results without incorporating pre-existing domain knowledge.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aerosol and Cloud Optical Properties from the ARM Raman Lidars: The Feature Detection and Extinction (RLPROF-FEX) Value-Added Product

Aerosols and their interactions and influence on clouds are among the main sources of uncertainties in radiative direct and indirect forcing (IPCC 2013). Continuous height-resolved measurements of cloud and aerosol optical properties are needed to reduce these uncertainties. Here we describe the Raman Lidar Profiles – Feature detection and Extinction (RLPROF-FEX) Value-Added Product (VAP) derived using Raman lidar data at multiple U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility sites. RLPROF-FEX provides estimates of extinction, backscatter, and depolarization using the algorithm described by Thorsen et al. 2015 and Thorsen and Fu 2015. This document provides a description of the FEX algorithm, its input and output data, and related details about the Raman lidar (RL) system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Success of Montreal Protocol Demonstrated by Comparing High-Quality UV Measurements with “World Avoided” Calculations from Two Chemistry-Climate Models

The Montreal protocol on Substances that Deplete the ozone Layer has been hailed as the most successful environmental treaty ever (https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/montreal-protocol-triumph-treaty). Yet, although our main concern about ozone depletion is the subsequent increase in harmful solar UV radiation at the earth’s surface, no studies to date have demonstrated its effectiveness in that regard. Here we use long-term UV Index (UVI) data derived from high-quality UV spectroradiometer measurements to demonstrate its success in curbing increases in UV radiation. Without this landmark agreement, UVi values would have increased at mid-latitude locations by approximately 20% between the early 1990s and today and would approximately quadruple at mid-latitudes by 2100. In contrast, an analysis of UVI data from multiple clean-air sites shows that maximum daily UVI values have remained essentially constant over the last ~20 years in all seasons, and may even have decreased slightly in the southern hemisphere, especially in Antarctica, where effects of ozone depletion were larger. Reconstructions of the UVi from total ozone data show evidence of increasing UVI levels in the 1980s, but unfortunately, there are no high-quality UV measurements available prior to the early 1990s to confirm these increases with direct observations.

UV Index (UVI) data derived from high-quality UV s↗

NASA NTRS2000

Using the World Primary Standard Dobson Spectrometer to Monitor the Stability of a Multi-Instrument Satellite Ozone Dataset

NASA is creating a long term satellite ozone time series by combining data from multiple instruments: Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) (1978 - 1993), Meteor 3 TOMS (1991 - 1994), Earth Probe TOMS (1996 - present), Nimbus 7 SB-JV (1978 - 1990), NOAA-9 Solar Backscatter UV Spectrometer (SBUV/2) (1984 - 1997), NOAA-11 SBUV/2 (1989 - 1994), and NOAA-14 SBUV/2 (1995 - present). The stability of individual data sets and possible instrument-to-instrument differences are best checked by comparison with ground-based measurements. We have examined the time dependence of the calibrations of these instruments by comparing satellite derived ozone with that measured by the world primary standard Dobson spectrometer No. 83. This instrument has been maintained since 1962 as a standard for total ozone to an uncertainty of plus or minus 0.5%. Measurements of AD pair ozone made with instrument No. 83 at Mauna Loa observatory most summers since 1979 were compared with coincident TOMS and SBUV(/2) ozone measurements. The comparison shows that the various instruments were stable relative to instrument No. 83 to within about plus or minus 1%, but that there are instrument-to-instrument biases of as much as 3%. Earth Probe TOMS, for example, is 1% to 2% high relative to Nimbus 7 TOMS when the world standard instrument is used as a transfer standard. Similar results are seen when comparisons are made with an ensemble of 41 Dobson stations throughout the world, demonstrating that the ensemble as a whole is stable despite the fact that many instruments within the ensemble have clear calibration changes.

McPeters, R.D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Video event trigger and tracking system using fuzzy comparators

A video observation method and apparatus, the apparatus having a frame storage mechanism, a dividing mechanism, a plurality of fuzzy comparators and a trigger signal mechanism. The frame storage mechanism stores at least one non-current video frame of a viewing field. The dividing mechanism divides a current video frame of the viewing field and the at least one non-current video frame into a plurality of corresponding trigger sections. The plurality of fuzzy comparators each compare and detect a fuzzy logic difference between one trigger section of the current video frame and the corresponding trigger sections of the at least one non-current video frame, the number of fuzzy comparators being selected so that every trigger section of the current video frame is compared. The trigger signal mechanism provides a trigger signal when a fuzzy logic difference is detected between any of the corresponding current and non-current trigger sections. A video observation mechanism and data reducing mechanism may be included with the above apparatus or alone with only a frame storage mechanism, a single generic comparator and a trigger signal mechanism. The video observation mechanism provides a video data stream, wherein each pixel of each frame of a viewing field is provided as multiple bits of data. The data reducing mechanism reduces each set of multiple bits of data which correspond to each pixel to one bit of binary data based on whether the pixel has a level of grey which is above or below a threshold level of grey.

Williams, Glenn L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tallo: A global tree allometry and crown architecture database

Abstract Data capturing multiple axes of tree size and shape, such as a tree's stem diameter, height and crown size, underpin a wide range of ecological research—from developing and testing theory on forest structure and dynamics, to estimating forest carbon stocks and their uncertainties, and integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes. However, these data can be surprisingly hard to come by, particularly for certain regions of the world and for specific taxonomic groups, posing a real barrier to progress in these fields. To overcome this challenge, we developed the Tallo database, a collection of 498,838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees for which stem diameter, height and/or crown radius have been measured. These data were collected at 61,856 globally distributed sites, spanning all major forested and non‐forested biomes. The majority of trees in the database are identified to species (88%), and collectively Tallo includes data for 5163 species distributed across 1453 genera and 187 plant families. The database is publicly archived under a CC‐BY 4.0 licence and can be access from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637599 . To demonstrate its value, here we present three case studies that highlight how the Tallo database can be used to address a range of theoretical and applied questions in ecology—from testing the predictions of metabolic scaling theory, to exploring the limits of tree allometric plasticity along environmental gradients and modelling global variation in maximum attainable tree height. In doing so, we provide a key resource for field ecologists, remote sensing researchers and the modelling community working together to better understand the role that trees play in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Jucker, Tommaso↗

NASA NTRS2011

Maturation of Structural Health Management Systems for Solid Rocket Motors

Concepts of an autonomous and automated space-compliant diagnostic system were developed for conditioned-based maintenance (CBM) of rocket motors for space exploration vehicles. The diagnostic system will provide real-time information on the integrity of critical structures on launch vehicles, improve their performance, and greatly increase crew safety while decreasing inspection costs. Using the SMART Layer technology as a basis, detailed procedures and calibration techniques for implementation of the diagnostic system were developed. The diagnostic system is a distributed system, which consists of a sensor network, local data loggers, and a host central processor. The system detects external impact to the structure. The major functions of the system include an estimate of impact location, estimate of impact force at impacted location, and estimate of the structure damage at impacted location. This system consists of a large-area sensor network, dedicated multiple local data loggers with signal processing and data analysis software to allow for real-time, in situ monitoring, and longterm tracking of structural integrity of solid rocket motors. Specifically, the system could provide easy installation of large sensor networks, onboard operation under harsh environments and loading, inspection of inaccessible areas without disassembly, detection of impact events and impact damage in real-time, and monitoring of a large area with local data processing to reduce wiring.

Quing, Xinlin↗

NASA NTRS1975

CARETS: A prototype regional environmental information system. Volume 3: Toward a national land use information system

It is recommended that a national land use information system be established by an agency of the Federal Government. This recommendation comes at a time of increasing demand for scientific information in support of environmentally relevant land use planning and management at all levels of government. It is also a time when new airborne and spaceborne remote sensors, tested in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Program of the Department of the Interior, make possible the gathering of land use information rapidly and on an unprecedented scale. Furthermore, information handling technology is developing toward a capability to receive, store, and disseminate the huge quantities of data that would be involved. The recommendation for the national land use information system is based upon careful analysis of the results of remote sensing experiments funded by NASA, EROS, and the Geography Program of the Geological Survey, with specific examples drawn from the demonstration project known as the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS). CARETS is cast in the framework of a regional land use information system, channeling the flow bf information generated in response to users' declaration of their needs, through stages dealing with remote sensing data gathering systems, data processing and land mensuration, calibration in-terms of environmental impact, and evaluation with feedback from users. The proposed system would develop and implement a unified approach to the description and interpretation of the changing uses of the nation's land resources, building upon the base of interagency and intergovernmental cooperation already achieved in the experimental work to date. The land use data base that is being derived from high-altitude aerial color infrared photography would be the initial component of the recommended system. High-altitude photographic coverage would immediately be extended to as much of the nation as possible as technological developments and economic considerations permit. The system would later expand to include multiple-sensor, multiple-platform data sources. Six system characteristics are recommended: (1) High capacity storage of data available for quick retrieval, inexpensive processing, and update, (2) provision of accuracy appropriate to the scale of survey or to the level of detail dictated by different types of management and decision requirements; (3) permanent, publicly accessible sensor records for historical interpretation; (4) compatibility of the recording, storage, and retrieval system with all types of inputs, from ground observer to satellite; (5) products of diverse formats and scales, responsive to user feedback; (6) and standardization of formats, scales, and storage inputs to permit nationwide comparability.

Land use mapping↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.

ATAP↗

NASA NTRS2015

Technology Advancement for Active Remote Sensing of Carbon Dioxide from Space Using the ASCENDS CarbonHawk Experiment Simulator: First Results

The ASCENDS CarbonHawk Experiment Simulator (ACES) is a newly developed lidar developed at NASA Langley Research Center and funded by NASA's Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) that seeks to advance technologies critical to measuring atmospheric column carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios in support of the NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission. The technology advancements targeted include: (1) increasing the power-aperture product to approach ASCENDS mission requirements by implementing multi-aperture telescopes and multiple co-aligned laser transmitters; (2) incorporating high-efficiency, high-power Erbium-Doped Fiber Amplifiers (EDFAs); (3) developing and incorporating a high-bandwidth, low-noise HgCdTe detector and transimpedence amplifier (TIA) subsystem capable of long-duration autonomous operation on Global Hawk aircraft, and (4) advancing algorithms for cloud and aerosol discrimination. The ACES instrument architecture is being developed for operation on high-altitude aircraft and will be directly scalable to meet the ASCENDS mission requirements. These technologies are critical towards developing not only spaceborne instruments but also their airborne simulators, with lower platform requirements for size, mass, and power, and with improved instrument performance for the ASCENDS mission. ACES transmits five laser beams: three from commercial EDFAs operating near 1.57 microns, and two from the Exelis oxygen (O2) Raman fiber laser amplifier system operating near 1.26 microns. The three EDFAs are capable of transmitting up to 10 watts average optical output power each and are seeded by compact, low noise, stable, narrow-linewidth laser sources stabilized with respect to a CO2 absorption line using a multi-pass gas absorption cell. The Integrated-Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) lidar approach is used at both wavelengths to independently measure the CO2 and O2 column number densities and retrieve the average column CO2 mixing ratio. The ACES receiver uses three fiber-coupled 17.8-cm diameter athermal telescopes. The transmitter assembly consists of five fiber-coupled laser collimators and an associated Risley prism pair for each laser to co-align the outgoing laser beams and to align them with the telescope field of view. The backscattered return signals collected by the three telescopes are combined in a fiber bundle and sent to a single low noise detector. The detector/TIA development has improved the existing detector subsystem by increasing its bandwidth to 4.7 MHz from 500 kHz and increasing the duration of autonomous, service-free operation periods from 4 hours to >24 hours. The new detector subsystem enables the utilization of higher laser modulation rates, which provides greater flexibility for implementing advanced thin-cloud discrimination algorithms as well as improving range-determination resolution and error reduction. The cloud/aerosol discrimination algorithm development by Langley and Exelis features a new suite of algorithms for the minimization/elimination of bias errors in the return signal induced by the presence of intervening thin clouds. Multiple laser modulation schemes are being tested in an effort to significantly mitigate the effects of thin clouds on the retrieved CO2 column amounts. Full instrument development concluded in the spring of 2014. After ground range tests of the instrument, ACES successfully completed six test flights on the Langley Hu-25 aircraft in July, 2014, and recorded data at multiple altitudes over land and ocean surfaces with and without intervening clouds. Preliminary results from these test flights will be presented in this paper.

Obland, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Earth Observations to Assess Impact of Hurricane Katrina on John C. Stennis Space Center

The peril from hurricanes to Space Operations Centers is real and is forecast to continue; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma of 2005 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne of 2004 are sufficient motivation for NASA to develop a multi-Center plan for preparedness and response. As was demonstrated at SSC (Stennis Space Center) in response to Hurricane Katrina, NASA Centers are efficiently activated as local command centers, playing host to Federal and State agencies and first responders to coordinate and provide evacuation, relocation, response, and recovery activities. Remote sensing decision support provides critical insight for managing NASA infrastructure and for assisting Center decision makers. Managers require geospatial information to manage the federal city. Immediately following Katrina, SSC s power and network connections were disabled, hardware was inoperative, technical staff was displaced and/or out of contact, and graphical decision support tools were non-existent or less than fully effective. Despite this circumstance, SSC EOC (Emergency Operations Center) implemented response operations to assess damage and to activate recovery plans. To assist Center Managers, the NASA ASP (Applied Sciences Program) made its archive of high-resolution data over the site available. In the weeks and months after the immediate crisis, NASA supplemented this data with high-resolution, post-Katrina imagery over SSC and much of the affected coastal areas. Much of the high-resolution imagery was made available through the Department of Defense Clear View contract and was distributed through U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science "Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response" Web site. By integrating multiple image data types with other information sources, ASP applied an all-source solutions approach to develop decision support tools that enabled managers to respond to critical issues, such as expedient access to infrastructure and deployment of resources, provision of temporary shelter, logistical control of critical supplies, and the mobilization and coordination of assets from ground crews to aircraft/airspace management. Furthermore, ASP developed information products that illustrate risks to SSC's infrastructure from surge, inundation, and flood. Current plans include developing wind-risk prototype products for refinement and adoption into EOC plans.

Graham, William D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

cclib 2.0: An updated architecture for interoperable computational chemistry

Interoperability in computational chemistry is elusive, impeded by the independent development of software packages and idiosyncratic nature of their output files. The cclib library was introduced in 2006 as an attempt to improve this situation by providing a consistent interface to the results of various quantum chemistry programs. The shared API across programs enabled by cclib has allowed users to focus on results as opposed to output and to combine data from multiple programs or develop generic downstream tools. Initial development, however, did not anticipate the rapid progress of computational capabilities, novel methods, and new programs; nor did it foresee the growing need for customizability. Here, we recount this history and present cclib 2, focused on extensibility and modularity. We also introduce recent design pivots—the formalization of cclib’s intermediate data representation as a tree-based structure, a new combinator-based parser organization, and parsed chemical properties as extensible objects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simple Pattern Traffic Generation for Automated Flight Research in Non-Towered Traffic Patterns

Research efforts into autonomous air traffic will necessitate tools for testing algorithm capabilities. Testing will require flexible methods for creating large quantities of artificial data to verify the safety of automated systems. The traffic generation method in this work was developed to test traffic prediction and replanning algorithms for an autonomous vehicle attempting to land at a non-towered airport. The traffic generation method produces airport approach trajectories supporting a wide range of pattern entry types and typical pattern modification maneuvers for multiple aircraft types with varying performance capabilities. For each aircraft there are options for choosing the approach type, modifying how the approach is flown, and imposing scenario-driven temporal constraints, such as spacing between pairs of aircraft. The tool uses simplified aircraft dynamics to produce position and velocity profiles for traffic vehicles. Additionally, the tool supports standalone simulation tests or batch/bulk testing efforts, multiple output data options, and facilitates post-processing analysis.

Autonomous Vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2022

Latent Mechanisms of Polarization Switching from In Situ Electron Microscopy Observations

In situ scanning transmission electron microscopy enables observation of the domain dynamics in ferroelectric materials as a function of externally applied bias and temperature. The resultant data sets contain a wealth of information on polarization switching and phase transition mechanisms. However, identification of these mechanisms from observational data sets has remained a problem due to a large variety of possible configurations, many of which are degenerate. Here, an approach based on a combination of deep learning-based semantic segmentation, rotationally invariant variational autoencoder (VAE), and non-negative matrix factorization to enable learning of a latent space representation of the data with multiple real-space rotationally equivalent variants mapped to the same latent space descriptors is introduced. By varying the size of training sub-images in the VAE, the degree of complexity in the structural descriptors is tuned from simple domain wall detection to the identification of switching pathways. Importantly, this yields a powerful tool for the exploration of the dynamic data in mesoscopic electron, scanning probe, optical, and chemical imaging. Moreover, this work adds to the growing body of knowledge of incorporating physical constraints into the machine and deep-learning methods to improve learned descriptors of physical phenomena.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Measurement of Shear Strain in Impact Ice Using a Modified Lap Joint Test and Digital Image Correlation

The results of ice adhesion testing efforts are typically quantified using the maximum shear stress sustained at the interface before the ice detaches from the underlying substrate. While this singular value can be useful for understanding the role icing wind tunnel conditions and substrate surface properties have on the strength of the ice-substrate interface, it does not capture the mechanical behavior of the ice during an experiment. To better understand the deformation of the ice sample and ice-substrate interface during testing, digital image correlation was applied to the lap-joint shear test methodology utilized at NASA Glenn Research Center. Preparation of the sample surface for digital image correlation, initial parsing of the correlation data, and the time synchronization of data from multiple sources are discussed. Using the directional components of deformation measured via digital image correlation, a novel approach to calculating the interfacial shear strain is presented. Results from analyzing several impact ice samples consistently reveals a non-linear response in the ice during mechanical loading which occurs prior to sample delamination, a behavior not observable in the force and displacement data gathered from the testing apparatus. Both the full and small angle forms of the engineering shear strain are evaluated, with the full shear strain form providing considerably lower noise levels. The transition of sample response from near the interface to the bulk behavior of the ice under shear loading is discussed with results from several samples being presented.

Ice adhesion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Measurement of Shear Strain in Impact Ice Using a Modified Lap Joint Test and Digital Image Correlation

: Ice Adhesion, Digital Image Correlation, Experim↗

NASA NTRS1992

Zebra: A striped network file system

The design of Zebra, a striped network file system, is presented. Zebra applies ideas from log-structured file system (LFS) and RAID research to network file systems, resulting in a network file system that has scalable performance, uses its servers efficiently even when its applications are using small files, and provides high availability. Zebra stripes file data across multiple servers, so that the file transfer rate is not limited by the performance of a single server. High availability is achieved by maintaining parity information for the file system. If a server fails its contents can be reconstructed using the contents of the remaining servers and the parity information. Zebra differs from existing striped file systems in the way it stripes file data: Zebra does not stripe on a per-file basis; instead it stripes the stream of bytes written by each client. Clients write to the servers in units called stripe fragments, which are analogous to segments in an LFS. Stripe fragments contain file blocks that were written recently, without regard to which file they belong. This method of striping has numerous advantages over per-file striping, including increased server efficiency, efficient parity computation, and elimination of parity update.

Hartman, John H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta using a GA- Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Burman Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Burman Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located alone the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with this procedure is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a C:~ prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Burman Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the system is strongly tidal driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects, and used this to enhance the neural network by mapping input-output relationships in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, the neural network implicitly incorporates both the hydrodynamic and water quality models into a single predictive system. Although our model has not yet been enhanced to demonstrate improve pumping schedules, it has the possibility to support better decision-making procedures that may then be implemented by State agencies if desired. Our intention is now to use this model in the smaller Elkhorn Slough complex near Monterey Bay where no such hydrodynamic model currently exists. At the Elkhorn Slough, we are fusing the neural net model of tidally-driven flow with in situ flow data and airborne and satellite remote sensation data. These further constrain the behavior of the model in predicting the longer-term health and future of this vital estuary.

Thompson, David E.↗