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ECLEIRS: Exact conservation law embedded identification of reduced states for parameterized nonlinear conservation laws from sparse and noisy data

Multi-query applications such as parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and design optimization for parameterized partial differential equation (PDE) systems are expensive. While reduced/latent state dynamics approaches for parameterized PDEs offer a viable alternative, these approaches rely on high-quality data and struggle with highly sparse spatiotemporal noisy measurements typically obtained from experiments. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that these models satisfy governing physical conservation laws. In this article, we propose a reduced state dynamics approach, referred to as ECLEIRS, that embeds exact conservation in the solution and flux representation by utilizing a space-time divergence-free neural network formulation. We compare ECLEIRS with other reduced state dynamics approaches, those that do not enforce any physical constraints and those with physics-informed loss functions, for three shock-propagation problems: 1-D advection, 1-D Burgers and 2-D Euler equations. In conclusion, the numerical experiments conducted in this study demonstrate that ECLEIRS provides the most accurate prediction of dynamics for unseen parameters even in the presence of highly sparse and noisy data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

New insights from uncultivated genomes of the global human gut microbiome

The genome sequences of many species of the human gut microbiome remain unknown, largely owing to challenges in cultivating microorganisms under laboratory conditions. Here we address this problem by reconstructing 60,664 draft prokaryotic genomes from 3,810 faecal metagenomes, from geographically and phenotypically diverse humans. These genomes provide reference points for 2,058 newly identified species-level operational taxonomic units (OTUs), which represents a 50% increase over the previously known phylogenetic diversity of sequenced gut bacteria. On average, the newly identified OTUs comprise 33% of richness and 28% of species abundance per individual, and are enriched in humans from rural populations. A meta-analysis of clinical gut-microbiome studies pinpointed numerous disease associations for the newly identified OTUs, which have the potential to improve predictive models. Finally, our analysis revealed that uncultured gut species have undergone genome reduction that has resulted in the loss of certain biosynthetic pathways, which may offer clues for improving cultivation strategies in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Flow-plane decorrelations in heavy-ion collisions with multiple-plane cumulants

The azimuthal correlations between local flow planes at different (pseudo)rapidities (η) may reveal important details of the initial nuclear matter density distributions in heavy-ion collisions. Extensive experimental measurements of a factorization ratio (r 2 ) and its derivative (F 2 ) have shown evidence of the longitudinal flow-plane decorrelation. However, nonflow effects also affect this observable and prevent a quantitative understanding of the phenomenon. In this paper, to distinguish decorrelation and nonflow effects, we propose a new cumulant observable, T 2 , which largely suppresses nonflow. Here, the technique sensitivity to different initial-state scenarios and nonflow effects are tested with a simple Monte Carlo model, and in the end, the method is applied to events simulated by a multiphase transport model (AMPT) for Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV. We also emphasize that a distinct decorrelation signal requires not only the right sign of an observable but also its proper dependence on the η window of the reference flow plane to be consistent with the pertinent decorrelation picture.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optimization of the deep neural network parameters for generating homogenized fuel assembly data for nodal codes

Homogenized fuel assembly (FA) data is a typical input data for nodal codes. Generating that data, however, could be time-consuming. One of promising ways to mitigate the computational burden of generating macroscopic cross-sections is to use trained artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting nuclear data. However, there is a challenge to make the model support variable FA geometry. In this work, two most common types of FA were combined in one ANN model. Since there could be multiple ways of converting 2-dimensional FA data into 1-dimensional input vector for ANN, three different approaches of data flattening were evaluated. The input parameters included each fuel pin enrichment, fuel temperature, moderator temperature and boron concentration. The output parameters were 2-group macroscopic cross-sections (XS) and pin power distribution (HFF). A fully connected deep neural network (DNN) model was trained and tested using pre-generated data obtained with lattice physics code STREAM. The results of this study showed no statistically significant difference in the accuracy of XS and HFF generation for all 3 tested input vector orders. This means that fully connected DNN for XS generation demonstrated input sequence invariance. Results of comparing predicted XS data with reference solutions were found sufficiently close considering the reduction of computation time offered by ANN. Mean relative difference (MRD) for all output XS parameters was found below 0.7%, while HFF MRD was found higher compared to XS values, in some cases slightly exceeding 1%, mostly near guide tube locations. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A&L Annual Report: Kapton Strength

Exploding Foil Initiator (EFI) systems function by launching a polymer flyer (often referred to as a slapper) at a high explosive (HE) pellet, which is intended to shock-initiate the HE. Flyer characteristics (e.g., shape, planarity, etc.) are extremely important in this respect, governing their ability to initiate the HE. Polymer models currently used in these systems are largely unvalidated, potentially compromising the integrity of magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) predictions of EFI function. An improved EFI MHD modelling capability is expected to: (1) expedite optimization of EFI-based initiation system design, (2) enable consideration of EFI-related aging and corresponding lifetime predictions, and (3) potentially minimize the number of costly experiments required to certify EFI designs. To address this knowledge gap, several years ago we began a computational project to develop a higher-fidelity model for Kapton, a Polyimide copolymer most commonly employed as the flyer material in EFI devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Siena Galaxy Atlas 2020

Abstract We present the 2020 version of the Siena Galaxy Atlas (SGA-2020), a multiwavelength optical and infrared imaging atlas of 383,620 nearby galaxies. The SGA-2020 uses optical grz imaging over ≈20,000 deg 2 from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 9 and infrared imaging in four bands (spanning 3.4–22 μ m) from the 6 year unWISE coadds; it is more than 95% complete for galaxies larger than R (26) ≈ 25″ and r < 18 measured at the 26 mag arcsec −2 isophote in the r band. The atlas delivers precise coordinates, multiwavelength mosaics, azimuthally averaged optical surface-brightness profiles, model images and photometry, and additional ancillary metadata for the full sample. Coupled with existing and forthcoming optical spectroscopy from the DESI, the SGA-2020 will facilitate new detailed studies of the star formation and mass assembly histories of nearby galaxies; enable precise measurements of the local velocity field via the Tully–Fisher and fundamental plane relations; serve as a reference sample of lasting legacy value for time-domain and multimessenger astronomical events; and more.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Numerical Prediction Methods (Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Simulations of Transonic Separated Flows)

During the past five years, numerous pioneering archival publications have appeared that have presented computer solutions of the mass-weighted, time-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for transonic problems pertinent to the aircraft industry. These solutions have been pathfinders of developments that could evolve into a major new technological capability, namely the computational Navier-Stokes technology, for the aircraft industry. So far these simulations have demonstrated that computational techniques, and computer capabilities have advanced to the point where it is possible to solve forms of the Navier-Stokes equations for transonic research problems. At present there are two major shortcomings of the technology: limited computer speed and memory, and difficulties in turbulence modelling and in computation of complex three-dimensional geometries. These limitations and difficulties are the pacing items of the continuing developments, although the one item that will most likely turn out to be the most crucial to the progress of this technology is turbulence modelling. The objective of this presentation is to discuss the state of the art of this technology and suggest possible future areas of research. We now discuss some of the flow conditions for which the Navier-Stokes equations appear to be required. On an airfoil there are four different types of interaction of a shock wave with a boundary layer: (1) shock-boundary-layer interaction with no separation, (2) shock-induced turbulent separation with immediate reattachment (we refer to this as a shock-induced separation bubble), (3) shock-induced turbulent separation without reattachment, and (4) shock-induced separation bubble with trailing edge separation.

Mehta, Unmeel↗

Protocol for Communication Networking for Formation Flying

An application-layer protocol and a network architecture have been proposed for data communications among multiple autonomous spacecraft that are required to fly in a precise formation in order to perform scientific observations. The protocol could also be applied to other autonomous vehicles operating in formation, including robotic aircraft, robotic land vehicles, and robotic underwater vehicles. A group of spacecraft or other vehicles to which the protocol applies could be characterized as a precision-formation- flying (PFF) network, and each vehicle could be characterized as a node in the PFF network. In order to support precise formation flying, it would be necessary to establish a corresponding communication network, through which the vehicles could exchange position and orientation data and formation-control commands. The communication network must enable communication during early phases of a mission, when little positional knowledge is available. Particularly during early mission phases, the distances among vehicles may be so large that communication could be achieved only by relaying across multiple links. The large distances and need for omnidirectional coverage would limit communication links to operation at low bandwidth during these mission phases. Once the vehicles were in formation and distances were shorter, the communication network would be required to provide high-bandwidth, low-jitter service to support tight formation-control loops. The proposed protocol and architecture, intended to satisfy the aforementioned and other requirements, are based on a standard layered-reference-model concept. The proposed application protocol would be used in conjunction with conventional network, data-link, and physical-layer protocols. The proposed protocol includes the ubiquitous Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11 medium access control (MAC) protocol to be used in the datalink layer. In addition to its widespread and proven use in diverse local-area networks, this protocol offers both (1) a random- access mode needed for the early PFF deployment phase and (2) a time-bounded-services mode needed during PFF-maintenance operations. Switching between these two modes could be controlled by upper-layer entities using standard link-management mechanisms. Because the early deployment phase of a PFF mission can be expected to involve multihop relaying to achieve network connectivity (see figure), the proposed protocol includes the open shortest path first (OSPF) network protocol that is commonly used in the Internet. Each spacecraft in a PFF network would be in one of seven distinct states as the mission evolved from initial deployment, through coarse formation, and into precise formation. Reconfiguration of the formation to perform different scientific observations would also cause state changes among the network nodes. The application protocol provides for recognition and tracking of the seven states for each node and for protocol changes under specified conditions to adapt the network and satisfy communication requirements associated with the current PFF mission phase. Except during early deployment, when peer-to-peer random access discovery methods would be used, the application protocol provides for operation in a centralized manner.

Jennings, Esther↗

Theory Aided Design of Active and Durable Nanoscale Cathode Catalysts (Final Report)

One of the greatest technological hurdles to deployment of fuel cells relates to the sluggish activity, low durability and the high cost of the catalysts that are currently employed. For automotive PEM fuel cells to become commercially viable, the Pt-specific power density would need to be reduced to less than 0.2gPt/kW (at cell voltages >0.65 V). This would require the Pt loadings to be less than 0.15 mg Pt /cm 2 MEA within the membrane electrode assembly. This could be achieved by enhancing the catalytic activity at the cathode, thus lowering its overpotential. Various different Pt-alloys have shown 2-4 times enhanced activities over Pt alone but still suffer some of the same durability issues as that of the pure Pt. There is a general loss of active Pt due to dissolution and sintering. While there have been a number of elegant fundamental experimental and theoretical studies on ideal single crystal Pt and Pt alloy surfaces which have helped to elucidate the factors that control the activity, there have been very few fundamental studies focused on the stability, reactivity and durability of well-defined Pt nanoparticles. We carried out ab initio density functional theory together with a novel double reference method that we developed to simulate constant potential electrochemical systems in order to model the electrocatalytic reduction of oxygen over model Pt alloy surfaces and nanoparticles. These simulations were used to probe the factors that control the electrocatalytic activity, guide the potential selection of new materials and test their stability under reaction conditions. Ab initio calculations were used to determine the reaction energies and activation barriers for a comprehensive array of different elementary adsorption, desorption, surface reaction and diffusion steps over Pt and Pt alloys involved in the electroreduction of oxygen as a function of surface coverage, the electrochemical potential and temperature. The calculations were used to simulate the potential dependent adsorption and surface reaction energies along with activation barriers in order to determine the kinetics for different surface structures and structural features (step edge and corner sites) to provide the necessary input for kinetic Monte Carlo simulations to follow the rates of reaction. More coarse-grained simulated annealing methods were used to help establish the lowest energy structures and morphologies for different Pt and Pt-alloy nanoparticles that form. The results from the DFT calculations were used to establish an ab initio-derived kinetic database that was used in both 2D and 3D kinetic Monte Carlo simulations that were used to follow the electrocatalytic performance over different particle sizes, shapes and compositions. The ab initio calculations together with the kinetic Monte Carlo simulations were used to complete the following objectives: 1) Determine the controlling elementary reaction pathways and intrinsic kinetics involved in ORR and their potential dependent behavior; 2) Establish the influence of the extrinsic reaction environment including surface structure, alloy composition and spatial arrangement and the humidity on ORR kinetics; 3) Elucidate the effects of particle size and morphology as well as the atomic structure and composition of nanoparticles of Pt, Pt 3 Co, Pt 3 Ni, Pt 3 Fe and other Pt-alloys on the electrocatalytic activity and reaction selectivity; 5) Construct surface Pourbaix phase diagrams for different Pt and Pt-alloys in order to map out the most stable surface phases for different material compositions and reaction conditions; 6) Elucidate the mechanisms that control dissolution and re-deposition of Pt.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Diagnosing the pedestal magnetic field and magnetohydrodynamics radial structure with pedestal–scrape of layer electron cyclotron emission radiation inversion in H-mode plasma (invited)

Forward modeling is used to interpret inversion patterns of the pedestal–Scrape of Layer (SOL) Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) in DIII-D H-mode experiments. The modeling not only significantly improves the ECE data interpretation quality but also leads to the potential measurements of (1) the magnetic field strength |B| at the separatrix, (2) the pedestal |B| evolution during an inter-Edge Localized Mode (ELM) period, and (3) the pedestal Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) radial structure. The ECE shine-through effect leads to three types of pedestal–SOL radiation inversions that are discussed in this paper. The first type of inversion is the non-monotonic T e,rad profile with respect to the major radius. Using the ECE frequency at the minimum T e,rad , the inversion can be applied to measure the magnetic field |B| at the separatrix and calibrate the mapping of the ECE channels with respect to the separatrix. The second type of inversion refers to the opposite phase between the radiation fluctuations δT e,rad at the pedestal and SOL. This δT e,rad phase inversion is sensitive to density and temperature fluctuations at the pedestal foot and, thus, can be used to qualitatively measure the MHD radial structure. The third type of inversion appears when the pedestal and SOL T e,rad evolve in an opposite trend, which can be used to infer the pedestal |B| field change during an inter-ELM period. Finally, the bandwidth effect on measuring δT e,rad due to pedestal MHD is also investigated in the radiation modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies

With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

MO-D-BRD-02: In Memoriam of Bengt Bjarngard: SBRT II: Small Field Dosimetry - TG155

Specialized radiation treatment such as SRS/SRT. SBRT, IMRT, VMAT, Tomotherapy, CyberKnife and Gamma Knife use small fields or combination of small fields where dosimetry is challenging and uncertain due to non-equilibrium conditions such as longitudinal and lateral disequilibrium. Additionally the primary photon fluence is greatly affected by the obstruction of the source size by the jaws creating a large dose gradient across the field. Electronic equilibrium is a phenomenon associated with the range of secondary particles which depend on the beam energy, photon spectrum and the composition of the medium. Additionally, the finite size of detectors creates volume averaging and fluence perturbations especially in small fields. The IAEA/AAPM has provided a frame work for non-compliant reference dosimetry in small fields1. The AAPM TG-1552 has adopted this frame work to provide guidelines in relative dosimetry. This course provides the insight of TG-155 that defines small field, provides recommendations for suitable detectors and associated correction factors to convert reading to dose. Recommendations of a good working practice for relative dosimetry measurements (PDD, TMR, output factor, etc.) and dose calculations based on the new formulation is are elaborated. It also discusses beam modeling and dose calculations as a critical step in clinical utilization of small field radiotherapy. Small errors in beam data, approximations in dose algorithms, or misaligned of detectors and field settings can propagate into large errors in planned and delivered dose. The modeling and treatment planning aspects of small field dosimetry are reviewed with emphasis on the most critical parts for ensuring accurate and safe radiation therapy. Discussion on k(fmsr, fclin) for commercially available detectors are also provided.1 P. Alfonso, P. Andreo, R. Capote, M. S. Huq, W. Kilby, P. Kjall, T. R. Mackie, H. Palmans, K. Rosser, J. Seuntjens, W. Ullrich and S. Vatnitsky, “A new formalism for reference dosimetry of small and nonstandard fields,” Med Phys 35, 5179–5186 (2008).2 I. J. Das, P. Francescon, A. Ahnesjo, M. M. Aspradakis, C. W. Cheng, G. X. Ding, G. S. Ibbott, M. Oldham, M. S. Huq, C. S. Reft and S. O.A., “Task Group 155 report: Small fields and non-equilibrium condition photon beam dosimetry,” Med Phys (under review). Learning Objectives: Physics of cavity theory for non-equilibrium condition and definition of small fields Description of absolute and relative dosimetry in the context of TG-155 Choice of detector in small field dosimetry, perturbations and corrections (K(fmsr, fclin)) for accurate dosimetry Understand the advantages and limitations of commercially available detectors for small field dosimetry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Application of thermal life prediction model to high-temperature aerospace alloys B1900+Hf and Haynes 188

The results of the application of a newly proposed thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life prediction method to a series of laboratory TMF results on two high-temperature aerospace engine alloys are presented. The method, referred to as TMF/TS-SRP, is based on three relatively recent developments: the total strain version of the method of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP), the bithermal testing technique for characterizing TMF behavior, and advanced viscoplastic constitutive models. The high-temperature data reported in a companion publication are used to evaluate the constants in the model and to provide the TMF verification data to check its accuracy. Predicted lives are in agreement with the experimental lives to within a factor of approximately 2.

Halford, Gary R.↗

Crustal Deformation Associated with Glacial Fluctuations in the Eastern Chugach Mountains, Alaska

The changes of the solid Earth in south central Alaska in response to two major glacial fluctuations on different temporal and spatial scales have been estimated and we evaluated their influence on the stress state and ongoing tectonic deformation of the region. During the recent (1993-1995) Bering Glacier surge, a large transfer of ice from the Bagley Ice Field to the Bering Glacier terminus region occurred. We estimated the elastic displacement of the solid Earth due to ice mass redistribution from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at sites near the surging glacier. We can account for these displacements by transfer of an ice volume of about 14 cubic km from the surge reservoir area to the terminus region. We examined the background seismicity (M(sub L) > 2.5) before, during, and after the surge. We found that the occurrence of small earthquakes (M(sub L) < 4.0) in the surge reservoir region increased during the surge time interval possibly in response to a decrease in ice mass. This suggests that a small decrease in the vertical stress, o,3, could be enough to modulate the occurrence of small, shallow earthquakes in this dominantly thrust fault setting. During this century the southern Alaska coastal glaciers have been undergoing an overall decrease in volume. Based on our compilation of changes in the extent and thickness of the coastal glaciers between the Malaspina and Bering, we calculated surface displacements due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to annual thinning and to the cumulative retreat over the last 100 years. The uplift of the region due to an average annual thinning rate of 1-6 m/yr in the ablation region is 1-12 mm/yr. For our reference model with a viscosity of 5 x 10(exp 19) Pa s for depths between approximately equal 40 and 200 km the total viscoelastic response due to the retreat over the last century may be as much as a couple of meters within the coastal ablation zone near Icy Bay. The maximum decrease in sigma(sub V) between 0 and 10 km was approximately equal 1.0 MPa, which is significant in relation to the stress drops in recent earthquakes (approximately 2 to 10 MPa) but small in relation to the estimated tectonic stress magnitude. Therefore the occurrence of an earthquake such as the St. Elias (1979, M(sub S) = 7.2) may have been advanced in time; however, most of the ongoing stress accumulation would be primarily due to tectonic forces.

Sauber, Jeanne↗

Simulation of a Periodic Jet in a Crossflow with a RANS Solver Using an Unstructured Grid

A second-order unstructured-grid code, developed and used primarily for steady aerodynamic simulations, is applied to the synthetic jet in a cross flow. The code, FUN3D, is a vertex-centered finite-volume method originally developed by Anderson[1, 2], and is currently supported by members of the Fast Adaptive Aerospace Tools team at NASA Langley. Used primarily for design[3] and analysis[4] of steady aerodynamic configurations, FUN3D incorporates a discrete adjoint capability, and supports parallel computations using MPI. A detailed description of the FUN3D code can be found in the references given above. The code is under continuous development and contains a variety of flux splitting algorithms for the inviscid terms, two methods for computing gradients, several turbulence models, and several solution methodologies; all in varying states of development. Only the most robust and reliable components, based on experiences with steady aerodynamic simulations, were employed in this work. As applied in this work, FUN3D solves the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the one equation turbulence model of Spalart and Allmaras[5]. The spatial discretization is formed on unstructured meshes using a vertex-centered approach. The inviscid terms are evaluated by a flux-difference splitting formulation using least-squares reconstruction and Roe-type approximate Riemann fluxes. Green-Gauss gradient evaluations are used for viscous and turbulence modeling terms. The discrete spatial operator is combined with a backward time operator which is then solved iteratively using point or line Gauss-Seidel and local time stepping in a pseudo time. For steady flows, the physical time step is set to infinity and the pseudo time step is ramped up with the iteration count. A second-order backward in time operator is used for time accurate flows with 20 to 50 steps in the pseudo time applied at each physical time step. For this effort, FUN3D was modified to support spatially varying boundary and initial conditions, and unsteady boundary conditions. Also, a specialized in/out flow boundary condition was implemented to model the action of the diaphragm. This boundary condition is described below in more detail. The grids were generated using the internally developed codes GridEX[6] for meshing the surfaces and inviscid regions of the domain, and for CAD access; and MesherX[7] for meshing the viscous regions. Grid spacing in on the surfaces and in the inviscid regions are indirectly controlled by specifying sources. The viscous layers are generated using an advancing layer technique. MeshersX allows the user to control the spatial variation of the first step off the surface, growth rates, and the termination criterion by providing small problem dependent subroutines.

Atkins, H. L.↗

TOPLA: A New Empirical Representation of the F-Region Topside and Plasmasphere for the International Reference Ionosphere

The goal of this LWS tools effort is the development of a new data-based F-region TOpside and PLAsmasphere (TOPLA) model for the electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) for inclusion in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model using newly available satellite data and models for these regions. The IRI model is the de facto international standard for specification of ionospheric parameters and is currently being considered as an ISO Technical Specification for the ionosphere. Our effort is directed towards improving the topside part of the model and extending it into the plasmasphere. Specifically we are planning to overcome the following shortcomings of the current IRI topside model: (I) overestimation of densities above 700 km by a factor of 2 and more, (3) unrealistically steep density profiles at high latitudes during very high solar activities, (4) no solar cycle variations and no semi-annual variations for the electron temperature, (5) discontinuities or unphysical gradients when merging with plasmaspheric models. We will report on first accomplishments and on the current status of the project.

Bilitza, D.↗

Risk Presentation Using the Three Dimensions of Likelihood, Severity, and Level of Control

Traditional hazard analysis techniques utilize a two-dimensional representation of the results determined by relative likelihood and severity of the residual risk. These matrices present a quick-look at the Likelihood (Y-axis) and Severity (X-axis) of the probable outcome of a hazardous event. A three-dimensional method, described herein, utilizes the traditional X and Y axes, while adding a new, third dimension, shown as the Z-axis, and referred to as the Level of Control. The elements of the Z-axis are modifications of the Hazard Elimination and Control steps (also known as the Hazard Reduction Precedence Sequence). These steps are: 1. Eliminate risk through design. 2. Substitute less risky materials for more hazardous materials. 3. Install safety devices. 4. Install caution and warning devices. 5. Develop administrative controls (to include special procedures and training.) 6. Provide protective clothing and equipment. When added to the two-dimensional models, the level of control adds a visual representation of the risk associated with the hazardous condition, creating a tall-pole for the leastwell-controlled failure while establishing the relative likelihood and severity of all causes and effects for an identified hazard. Computer modeling of the analytical results, using spreadsheets and three-dimensional charting gives a visual confirmation of the relationship between causes and their controls.

Watson, Clifford↗