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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

A hidden Markov model for population-level cervical cancer screening data

The Cancer Registry of Norway has been administrating a national cervical cancer screening program since 1992 by coordinating triennial cytology exam screenings for the female population between 25 and 69 years of age. Up to 80% of cancers are prevented through mass screening, but this comes at the expense of considerable screening activity and leads to overtreatment of clinically asymptomatic precancers. Here, we present a continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model which was developed to understand the screening process and cervical cancer carcinogenesis in detail. By leveraging 1.7 million individual's multivariate time-series of medical exams performed over a 25-year period, we simultaneously estimate all model parameters. We show that an age-dependent model reflects the Norwegian screening program by comparing empirical survival curves from observed registry data and data simulated from the proposed model. The model can be generalized to include more detailed individual-level covariates as well as new types of screening exams. By utilizing individual screening histories and covariate data, the proposed model shows potential for improving strategies for cancer screening programs by personalizing recommended screening intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Pass-efficient methods for compression of high-dimensional turbulent flow data

The future of high-performance computing, specifically on future Exascale computers, will presumably see memory capacity and bandwidth fail to keep pace with data generated, for instance, from massively parallel partial differential equation (PDE) systems. Current strategies proposed to address this bottleneck entail the omission of large fractions of data, as well as the incorporation of in situ compression algorithms to avoid overuse of memory. To ensure that post-processing operations are successful, this must be done in a way that a sufficiently accurate representation of the solution is stored. Moreover, in situations where the input/output system becomes a bottleneck in analysis, visualization, etc., or the execution of the PDE solver is expensive, the number of passes made over the data must be minimized. In the interest of addressing this problem, this work focuses on the utility of pass-efficient, parallelizable, low-rank, matrix decomposition methods in compressing high-dimensional simulation data from turbulent flows. Additionally, a particular emphasis is placed on using coarse representation of the data – compatible with the PDE discretization grid – to accelerate the construction of the low-rank factorization. This includes the presentation of a novel single-pass matrix decomposition algorithm for computing the so-called interpolative decomposition. The methods are described extensively and numerical experiments on two turbulent channel flow data are performed. In the first (unladen) channel flow case, compression factors exceeding 400 are achieved while maintaining accuracy with respect to first- and second-order flow statistics. In the particle-laden case, compression factors of 100 are achieved and the compressed data is used to recover particle velocities. These results show that these compression methods can enable efficient computation of various quantities of interest in both the carrier and disperse phases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A stochastic extension of the explicit algebraic subgrid-scale models

The explicit algebraic subgrid-scale (SGS) stress model (EASM) of Marstorp et al. [“Explicit algebraic subgrid stress models with application to rotating channel flow,” J. Fluid Mech. 639, 403–432 (2009)] and explicit algebraic SGS scalar flux model (EASFM) of Rasam et al. [“An explicit algebraic model for the subgrid-scale passive scalar flux,” J. Fluid Mech. 721, 541–577 (2013)] are extended with stochastic terms based on the Langevin equation formalism for the subgrid-scales by Marstorp et al. [“A stochastic subgrid model with application to turbulent flow and scalar mixing,” Phys. Fluids 19, 035107 (2007)]. The EASM and EASFM are nonlinear mixed and tensor eddy-diffusivity models, which improve large eddy simulation (LES) predictions of the mean flow, Reynolds stresses, and scalar fluxes of wall-bounded flows compared to isotropic eddy-viscosity and eddy-diffusivity SGS models, especially at coarse resolutions. The purpose of the stochastic extension of the explicit algebraic SGS models is to further improve the characteristics of the kinetic energy and scalar variance SGS dissipation, which are key quantities that govern the small-scale mixing and dispersion dynamics. LES of turbulent channel flow with passive scalar transport shows that the stochastic terms enhance SGS dissipation statistics such as length scale, variance, and probability density functions and introduce a significant amount of backscatter of energy from the subgrid to the resolved scales without causing numerical stability problems. The improvements in the SGS dissipation predictions in turn enhances the predicted resolved statistics such as the mean scalar, scalar fluxes, Reynolds stresses, and correlation lengths. Moreover, the nonalignment between the SGS stress and resolved strain-rate tensors predicted by the EASM with stochastic extension is in much closer agreement with direct numerical simulation data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Two-Yukawa fluid at a hard wall: Field theory treatment

We apply a field-theoretical approach to study the structure and thermodynamics of a two-Yukawa fluid confined by a hard wall. We derive mean field equations allowing for numerical evaluation of the density profile which is compared to analytical estimations. Beyond the mean field approximation, analytical expressions for the free energy, the pressure, and the correlation function are derived. Subsequently, contributions to the density profile and the adsorption coefficient due to Gaussian fluctuations are found. Both the mean field and the fluctuation terms of the density profile are shown to satisfy the contact theorem. We further use the contact theorem to improve the Gaussian approximation for the density profile based on a better approximation for the bulk pressure. The results obtained are compared to computer simulation data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

OpenUniverse2024: a shared, simulated view of the sky for the next generation of cosmological surveys

The OpenUniverse2024 simulation suite is a cross-collaboration effort to produce matched simulated imaging for multiple surveys as they would observe a common simulated sky. Both the simulated data and associated tools used to produce it are intended to uniquely enable a wide range of studies to maximize the science potential of the next generation of cosmological surveys. We have produced simulated imaging for approximately 70 deg 2 of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Wide-Fast-Deep survey and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey, as well as overlapping versions of the ELAIS-S1 Deep-Drilling Field for LSST and the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey for Roman. OpenUniverse2024 includes (i) an early version of the updated extragalactic model called Diffsky, which substantially improves the realism of optical and infrared photometry of objects, compared to previous versions of these models; (ii) updated transient models that extend through the wavelength range probed by Roman and Rubin; and (iii) improved survey, telescope, and instrument realism based on up-to-date survey plans and known properties of the instruments. It is built on a new and updated suite of simulation tools that improves the ease of consistently simulating multiple observatories viewing the same sky. The approximately 400 TB of synthetic survey imaging and simulated universe catalogs are publicly available, and we preview some scientific uses of the simulations.

large-scale structure of Universe↗

Sinogram restoration in computed tomography with an edge-preserving penalty

Purpose: With the goal of producing a less computationally intensive alternative to fully iterative penalized-likelihood image reconstruction, our group has explored the use of penalized-likelihood sinogram restoration for transmission tomography. Previously, we have exclusively used a quadratic penalty in our restoration objective function. However, a quadratic penalty does not excel at preserving edges while reducing noise. Here, we derive a restoration update equation for nonquadratic penalties. Additionally, we perform a feasibility study to extend our sinogram restoration method to a helical cone-beam geometry and clinical data. Methods: A restoration update equation for nonquadratic penalties is derived using separable parabolic surrogates (SPS). A method for calculating sinogram degradation coefficients for a helical cone-beam geometry is proposed. Using simulated data, sinogram restorations are performed using both a quadratic penalty and the edge-preserving Huber penalty. After sinogram restoration, Fourier-based analytical methods are used to obtain reconstructions, and resolution-noise trade-offs are investigated. For the fan-beam geometry, a comparison is made to image-domain SPS reconstruction using the Huber penalty. The effects of varying object size and contrast are also investigated. For the helical cone-beam geometry, we investigate the effect of helical pitch (axial movement/rotation). Huber-penalty sinogram restoration is performed on 3D clinical data, and the reconstructed images are compared to those generated with no restoration. Results: We find that by applying the edge-preserving Huber penalty to our sinogram restoration methods, the reconstructed image has a better resolution-noise relationship than an image produced using a quadratic penalty in the sinogram restoration. However, we find that this relatively straightforward approach to edge preservation in the sinogram domain is affected by the physical size of imaged objects in addition to the contrast across the edge. This presents some disadvantages of this method relative to image-domain edge-preserving methods, although the computational burden of the sinogram-domain approach is much lower. For a helical cone-beam geometry, we found applying sinogram restoration in 3D was reasonable and that pitch did not make a significant difference in the general effect of sinogram restoration. The application of Huber-penalty sinogram restoration to clinical data resulted in a reconstruction with less noise while retaining resolution. Conclusions: Sinogram restoration with the Huber penalty is able to provide better resolution-noise performance than restoration with a quadratic penalty. Additionally, sinogram restoration with the Huber penalty is feasible for helical cone-beam CT and can be applied to clinical data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Using Computational Cognitive Modeling to Diagnose Possible Sources of Aviation Error

We present a computational model of a closed-loop, pilot-aircraft-visual scene-taxiway system created to shed light on possible sources of taxi error. Creating the cognitive aspects of the model using ACT-R required us to conduct studies with subject matter experts to identify experiential adaptations pilots bring to taxiing. Five decision strategies were found, ranging from cognitively-intensive but precise, to fast, frugal but robust. We provide evidence for the model by comparing its behavior to a NASA Ames Research Center simulation of Chicago O'Hare surface operations. Decision horizons were highly variable; the model selected the most accurate strategy given time available. We found a signature in the simulation data of the use of globally robust heuristics to cope with short decision horizons as revealed by errors occurring most frequently at atypical taxiway geometries or clearance routes. These data provided empirical support for the model.

Pilots↗

Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.↗

Establishing a Modern Ground Network for Space Geodesy Applications

Ground-based networks of co-located space-geodesy techniques (VLBI, SLR, GLASS, DORIS) are the basis for the development and maintenance of the :International Terrestrial deference Frame (ITRE), which is the basis for our metric measurements of global change. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) within the International Association of Geodesy has established a task to develop a strategy to design, integrate and maintain the fundamental geodetic network and supporting infrastructure in a sustainable way to satisfy the long-term requirements for the reference frame. The GGOS goal is an origin definition at I mm or better and a temporal stability on the order of 0.1 mm/y, with similar numbers for the scale and orientation components. These goals are based on scientific requirements to address sea level rise with confidence. As a first step, simulations focused on establishing the optimal global SLR and VLBI network, since these two techniques alone are sufficient to define the reference frame. The GLASS constellations will then distribute the reference frame to users anywhere on the Earth. Using simulated data to be collected by the future networks, we investigated various designs and the resulting accuracy in the origin, scale and orientation of the resulting ITRF. We present here the results of extensive simulation studies aimed at designing optimal global geodetic networks to support GGOS science products. Current estimates are the network will require 24 - 32 globally distributed co-location sites. Stations in the near global network will require geologically stable sites witla good weather, established infrastructure, and local support and personnel. EGOS will seek groups that are interested in participation. GGOS intends to issues a Call for Participation of groups that would like to take part in the network implementation and operation_ Some examples of integrated stations currently in operation or under development will be presented. We will examine necessary conditions and challenges in designing a co-location station.

Pearlman, M.↗

Frequency-domain identification of XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft dynamics

Frequency-domain methods are used to identify the open-loop dynamics of the XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft from flight tests. Piloting and data analysis techniques are presented to determine frequency response plots and equivalent transfer function models. The open-loop pitch and roll dynamics for the hover flight condition exhibit unstable low-frequency oscillations, whereas the dynamics in the remaining degrees of freedom are lightly damped and generally decoupled. Comparisons of SV-13 flight-test and simulator data are more favorable for high-frequency inputs (omega greater than 1.0 rad/sec) than low-frequency inputs. The identification of symmetric and asymmetric beam-bending modes compares favorably with previous flight-test data. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the utility of the frequency-domain techniques for dynamics identification and simulator fidelity studies.

Tischler, M. B.↗

Empirical Model of Puncture Energy for Metals

The purpose of this work is to fit a previously developed empirical equation for puncture energy to simulation data. The conservative puncture energy equation could be used to expedite the process of performing calculations in the development of safety measures, avoiding the need to create complex finite element models for specific puncture scenarios. A total of 108 simulations are developed by varying coupon thickness, coupon material, probe shape, and probe diameter. The simulations are comprised of a low-velocity probe puncturing the coupons, from which the probe kinetic energy change is calculated. The empirical equation is fit to the dimensions, material properties, and energy results using a non-linear least-squares regression method within Python, which determines the two constant parameters for each fit. More statistically significant fit results are achieved by separating the data by probe shape and coupon material.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Accurate hydrodynamic force and torque correlations for prolate spheroids from Stokes regime to high Reynolds numbers

Detailed simulations of flow around various prolate spheroids are performed using multi-relaxation time lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The simulations are performed in the Reynolds numbers range 0.1 ≤ Re ≤ 2000 at different incident angles 0°≤ φ ≤ 90° for various prolate spheroids of aspect ratios 1 ≤ λ ≤ 8. The Re is based on the volume equivalent sphere diameter. From the simulations, accurate correlations for average drag, lift and torque coefficients (C D , C L , and C T respectively) are proposed. The mean deviations between the correlations and the simulation data for C D , C L , and C T are 2%, 6.5%, and 4.7% respectively. Furthermore, the correlations are fitted with the physics in mind such that they can be extrapolated beyond the regimes simulated. The fits are designed such that correlations reduce to analytical (C D and C L ) solutions available for prolate spheroids in the limit Re ≈ 0. At high Re, the correlations mimic the asymptotic flattening of C D as for spheres and therefore, we expect the correlations to be valid until the critical Re (≈ 10 5 ). Furthermore, extensive comparison of our correlations with other high-fidelity simulations from literature demonstrate the accuracy of our work compared to other correlations from literature. This work enables researchers to perform accurate unresolved Euler-Lagrangian simulations for a wide range of elongated particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A physics-informed operator regression framework for extracting data-driven continuum models

The application of deep learning toward discovery of data-driven models requires careful application of inductive biases to obtain a description of physics which is both accurate and robust. We present here a framework for discovering continuum models from high fidelity molecular simulation data. Our approach applies a neural network parameterization of governing physics in modal space, allowing a characterization of differential operators while providing structure which may be used to impose biases related to symmetry, isotropy, and conservation form. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework for a variety of physics, including local and nonlocal diffusion processes and single and multiphase flows. For the flow physics we demonstrate this approach leads to a learned operator that generalizes to system characteristics not included in the training sets, such as variable particle sizes, densities, and concentration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Efficient Reactive Force Field without Explicit Coordination Dependence for Studying Caustic Aluminum Chemistry

Reactive force fields (RFFs) are an expedient approach to sample chemical reaction paths in complex systems, relative to density functional theory. However, there is continued need to improve efficiencies, specifically in systems that have slow transverse degrees of freedom, as in highly viscous and superconcentrated solutions. Here, we present an RFF that is differentiated from current models (e.g., ReaxFF) by omitting explicit dependence on the atom coordination and employing a small parameter set based on Lennard-Jones, Gaussian, and Stillinger–Weber potentials. In this study, the model was parametrized from AIMD simulation data and is used to model aluminate reactivity in sodium hydroxide solutions with extensive validation against experimental radial distribution functions, computed free energy profiles for oligomerization, and formation energies. In conclusion, the model enables simulation of early stage Al(OH) 3 nucleation which has significant relevance to industrial processing of aluminum and has a computational cost that is reduced by 1 order of magnitude relative to ReaxFF.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Power System Waveform Classification Using Time-Frequency and CNN

Many modern reclosers and circuit breakers have microprocessor relays that record waveforms of system events. In some cases, utilities may record a half-a-dozen event captures for every event. This is thousands of events per year. The industry needs faster, more automated, more conclusive, and easy-to-use systems that can process massive amounts of event recordings without extensive input/support from power system engineers. To address the need for a commercially viable solution that can classify waveform data, energies were directed to develop a universal neural network (NN) structure (deep learning algorithm) that works for a wide variety of system event types. The structure that showed the most promise was one that included the use of spectrograms. The technique has shown positive results in audio engineering, particularly with respect to speech recognition. A waveform signature could be treated as a spoken word like audio waveforms for specific things such as “YES” or “UP”. No two people produce the exact same waveform when speaking each of these words, but audio processing algorithms based on spectrograms and convolutional neural networks (CNN) can still distinguish the word regardless of the speaker. No two circuits produce the exact same waveform for a given event, but the NN can be trained to classify the event type regardless of the circuit or location on the circuit. A Power System Neural Network (PSNN) has been developed to use a CNN to classify events within waveform data for power systems. The waveform is converted to an array of values by way of spectrograms and interpreted as an image. This image is passed into the CNN. The test results on independent simulated test and validation datasets show greater than 99% accuracy. While the results thus far are based on simulated data, the performance of the PSNN is very promising and should work for a wide variety of power system conditions of interest. Ultimately, much of the custom code and tools used today and much of the manual effort expended today may be automated using this PSNN.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

1DVAR Analysis of Temperature and Humidity Using GPS Radio Occultation Data

The Global Positioning System enables positioning in 3 dimensions about our planet. It has been operational since 1994. Twenty-four satellites are used to aclile\,e this performance. The signals sent by these satellites are electromagnetic waves travelling through our atmosphere down to the small receivers used by the civilian community and the military. Because of varying meteorological conditions (namely, temperature and humidity changes along the ray path), the rays do not travel in a straight line. They bend towards the surface. As a consequence, the ray path between two points is longer than a straight line, and the time it takes for a signal to travel this distance is longer. In 1995, a small GPS receiver was launched on a satellite (GPS/MET). It become possible to perform radio occultations around the Earth: the source - one of the 24 GPS satellites - is seen by the receiver as it rises or sets around the other side of the Earth. When the source disappears, the receiver progressively loses the signals. By measuring accurately the time delay between the emission and the reception of the signal, it is possible to infer which part of the delay is due to the atmosphere. We use GPS/MET data to retrieve temperature and humidity profiles simultaneously. A specific method is implemented: it combines information from numerical forecasts and GPS observations in an optimal way. Comparing the result with an independent source of observations (weather balloons), we demonstrate that GPS data have the potential to improve weather analyses. We also show that improved temperature and humidity profiles can be obtained using information from a forecast model. This confirms results obtained in this study using simulated data.

Poli, Paul↗

Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel Reconstruction Using an Extended Kalman Filter Framework

A Kalman filter tool has been created for processing data from NASA Langley’s Magnetic Suspension and Balance System. The filter is formulated to estimate aerodynamic parameters of a model that is levitated magnetically in the test section of the wind tunnel. The Kalman filter tool is a modification of an existing code that has been in use for solving trajectory reconstruction problems and has been validated through previous use supporting many flight projects. Modifications to the code were implemented to add the capability to process data from the magnetic suspension wind tunnel. In particular, the main modifications were to the equations of motion to add models for magnetic and aerodynamic forces and moments. The code has been tested using simulation data to provide a known truth for verification.

Christopher D. Karlgaard↗

Dose Error Correction Using Simulation Extrapolation for Community Noise Dose-Response Modeling

The objective of this work is to provide a framework to account and correct for dose error in dose-response modeling due to measurement uncertainty. Error in noise measurements, especially in the case of limited monitoring locations in a community, can lead to an attenuation or misestimation of parameters in dose-response models. This error can result in overpredicted annoyance at lower doses and underpredicted annoyance at higher doses. Simulated data in the present work are based on previous NASA community studies and incorporate a notional design for future studies with the X-59 aircraft. Several populations of different annoyance response sensitivities are included. Simulation extrapolation (SIMEX, Cook and Stefanski 1994) is used to correct for the dose error in a simple, fully pooled logistic regression. Results indicate the negative impact of attenuation is greatly diminished for all amounts of dose error considered, regardless of a population’s annoyance sensitivity. Therefore, SIMEX can help produce a more accurate dose-response relationship.

SIMEX↗