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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Day and night models of the Venus thermosphere

A model atmosphere of Venus for altitudes between 100 and 178 km is presented for the dayside and nightside. Densities of CO2, CO, O, N2, He, and O2 on the dayside, for 0800 and 1600 hours local time, are obtained by simultaneous solution of continuity equations. These equations couple ionospheric and neutral chemistry and the transport processes of molecular and eddy diffusion. Photodissociation and photoionization J coefficients are presented to facilitate the incorporation of chemistry into circulation models of the Venus atmosphere. Midnight densities of CO2 CO, O, N2, He, and N are derived from integration of the continuity equations, subject to specified fluxes. The nightside densities and fluxes are consistent with the observed airglow of NO and O2(1 Delta). The homopause of Venus is located near 133 km on both the dayside and nightside.

Massie, S. T.↗

Nonmigrating tides

Recently an interesting advancement in the study of nonmigrating tides has occurred. There have been two distinct approaches in works on this subject. One is based on mechanistic models as considering nonuniform global distribution of water vapor or heating only on land, solving a set of linear equations. It is found that insolation absorption of the nonuniformly distributed water vapor produces only weak nonmigrating tides in the lower thermosphere; the planetary boundary layer heating on land can explain the enhanced tides on land and those with short vertical wavelengths in the stratosphere. The other approach is novel and uses simulation on the general circulation model (GCM). This realistic model can reproduce tides globally and in many details. The enhancement of two nonmigrating modes as eastward traveling modes with a wave number 3 and westward traveling modes with a wave number 5 is in surprisingly good agreement with observation at sea level, at 700 mb and even at 300 mb.

Kato, S.↗

Anomalies in the South American Monsoon Induced by Aerosols

We have investigated the direct effects of aerosols on the water cycle of the South American monsoon using the NASA finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM). Global aerosol forcings are computed from radiative transfer functions derived from global distributions of five species of aerosols, i.e., dust, black carbon, organic carbon, sulphate and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. Comparing fvGCM experiments without aerosol forcing, and with different combinations of aerosol forcing, we evaluate the impacts of aerosol direct heating on the onset, maintenance and evolution of the South American summer monsoon. We find that during the pre-monsoon season (September-October-November) Saharan dust contribute to heating of the atmosphere over the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic/Africa region through the elevated heat pump mechanism. The heating generates an anomalous Walker circulation with sinking motion, and low level northeasterlies over the Caribbean and northwestern South America. The low level flow is blocked by the Andes, and turn south and southeastward, increasing the low level jet (LLJ) along the eastern slope of the Andes. The increased LLJ transports more moisture from the Atlantic and the Amazon, enhancing the moisture convergence over subtropical land regions of South America. The moisture convergence was further accelerated by atmospheric heating by biomass burning over the Amazon. The net results of the dust and biomass heating are: a) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, b) an enhanced LLJ and c) a shifting the South America monsoon land precipitation equatorward, with increased rain over southern Brazil and reduced rain over the La Plata basin. ramifications of this elevated heating heat pump mechanism in aerosol monsoon water cycle on climate variability and change will be discussed. The ramifications of this "elevated heating heat pump" mechanism in aerosol monsoom water cycle on climate variability and change will be discussed.

Lau, K. M. William↗

Modeling and Observations of the Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere, Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone, This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years, An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region, We will show targeted comparisons with SHADOZ ozonesondes over these regions to provide insight into the vertical structure. Also, comparisons with NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) instruments and other appropriate data sets will be shown. In addition, the water vapor response to ENSO will be compared to help illuminate its role relative to dynamics in impacting ozone concentrations. These results indicate that the tropospheric ozone response to ENSO is potentially a very useful chemistry-climate diagnostic and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

Oman, L. D.↗

On Simulating the Mid-western-us Drought of 1988 with a GCM

The primary cause of the midwestern North American drought in the summer of 1988 has been identified to be the La Nina SST anomalies. Yet with the SST anomalies prescribed, this drought has not been simulated satisfactorily by any general circulation model. Seven simulation-experiments, each containing an ensemble of 4-sets of simulations, were conducted with the GEOS GCM for both 1987 and 1988. All simulations started from January 1 and continued through the end of August. In the first baseline case, Case 1, only the SST anomalies and some vegetation parameters were prescribed, while everything else (such as soil moisture, snow-cover, and clouds) was interactive. The GCM did produce some of the circulation features of a drought over North America, but they could only be identified on the planetary scales. The 1988 minus 1987 precipitation differences show that the GCM was successful in simulating reduced precipitation in the mid-west, but the accompanying circulation anomalies were not well simulated, leading one to infer that the GCM has simulated the drought for the wrong reason. To isolate the causes for this unremarkable circulation, analyzed winds and soil moisture were prescribed in Case 2 and Case 3 as continuous updates by direct replacement of the GCM-predicted fields. These cases show that a large number of simulation biases emanate from wind biases that are carried into the North American region from surroundings regions. Inclusion of soil moisture also helps to ameliorate the strong feedback, perhaps even stronger than that of the real atmosphere, between soil moisture and precipitation. Case 2 simulated one type of surface temperature anomaly pattern, whereas Case 3 with the prescribed soil moisture produced another.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Six reasons why thermospheric measurements and models disagree

The differences between thermospheric measurements and models are discussed. Sometimes the model is in error and at other times the measurements are, but it also is possible for both to be correct, yet have the comparison result in an apparent disagreement. These reasons are collected for disagreement, and, whenever possible, methods of reducing or eliminating them are suggested. The six causes of disagreement discussed are: actual errors caused by the limited knowledge of gas-surface interactions and by in-track winds; limitations of the thermospheric general circulation models due to incomplete knowledge of the energy sources and sinks as well as incompleteness of the parameterization which must be employed; and limitations imposed on the empirical models by the conceptual framework and the transient waves.

Moe, Kenneth↗

GCM Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

The geographic sources of water for the large scale North American monsoon in a GCM (General Circulation Model) are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American Monsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of monsoonal precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

The Influence of Indian Ocean Atmospheric Circulation on Warm Pool Hydroclimate During the Holocene Epoch

Existing paleoclimate data suggest a complex evolution of hydroclimate within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Holocene epoch. Here we introduce a new leaf wax isotope record from Sulawesi, Indonesia and compare proxy water isotope data with ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations to identify mechanisms influencing Holocene IPWP hydroclimate. Modeling simulations suggest that orbital forcing causes heterogenous changes in precipitation across the IPWP on a seasonal basis that may account for the differences in time-evolution of the proxy data at respective sites. Both the proxies and simulations suggest that precipitation variability during the September-November (SON) season is important for hydroclimate in Borneo. The preeminence of the SON season suggests that a seasonally lagged relationship between the Indian monsoon and Indian Ocean Walker circulation influences IPWP hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene.

simulation↗

Repository of HydroSMADE: Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites

This repository presents HydroSMADE—Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble, a new open dataset that provides monthly hydropower availability for 1,593 existing and 124,333 potential sites worldwide over the period 1950–2100. The dataset is generated by using a global hydrologic model (Xanthos) with explicit representation of hydropower operation. Specifically, HydroSMADE distinguishes between storage and diversion sites, applies optimized operating rules, and incorporates site-specific characteristics such as generation capacity, maximum turbine flow, and reservoir storage. Driven by bias-corrected meteorological inputs, the data is provided for 30 alternative future scenarios. The scenarios consist of the full factorial combination of three standard CMIP6 atmospheric forcing pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and ten CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, EC-Earth3, CanESM5, MIROC6, CNRM-ESM2-1, UKESM1-0-LL, and CNRM-CM6-1. The repository contains a total of 122 files: a text file (readme.txt) containing a brief description of the included data, a CSV file containing site attributes, and the remaining 120 files (in CSV) containing site-level monthly hydropower availability. Example Jupyter Notebooks to explore the HydroSMADE dataset are available on GitHub at https://github.com/kamal0013/HydroSMADE More details on the methods and technical validation of HydroSMADE are available in the following paper by the same authors: Chowdhury, A. K., Abeshu, G. W., Zhao, M., Wild, T. B., Hassan, N., Ying, Z., Kim, G. J., Matthew, B., Jonathan, L., & Li, H.-Y. (Submitted). Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites.

Existing and Potential Sites↗

GCM sensitivity to 1982 - 1983 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies

The response of the GLAS climate model to the much larger 1982-83 sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies is discussed. Two separate 75 day experiments (control and anomaly simulation pairs) were started from observed initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1982 and initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1979 taken from a 2 year model control run after one year of simulation, respectively. The January control and anomaly SST fields used in both experiments are given. Notable is the greatly extended region of very warm (approximately equal to 29 C) SST water in the anomaly simulation. The January SST anomaly field is representative of the other months of the experiments, all of which had a much larger region of very warm SST in the anomaly simulation than in the previously noted general circulation model studies. The model used is an improved version of the GLAS B-grid GCM used by Shukla and Wallace (1983). The most important physical change in the model is the inclusion of the surface flux parameterization of Deardorff (1972) as modified by Randall (1976). An important improvement in the model simulations is the removal of the climate drift towards unrealistically high temperatures in the tropics, which was moted by Shukla and Wallace (1983).

Fennessy, M. J.↗

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the range -50 to -190 W sq m per unit inadvisable optical depth. The magnitudes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger forcing in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce the actual major radiative forcing events that contribute to any global-average climate effect. Detailed comparisons of calculated and measured forcings for specific events are used for more refined tests of closure.

Russell, P. B.↗

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Yang, Song↗

The Computational Complexity, Parallel Scalability, and Performance of Atmospheric Data Assimilation Algorithms

The computational complexity of algorithms for Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (4DDA) at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is discussed. In 4DDA, observations are assimilated with the output of a dynamical model to generate best-estimates of the states of the system. It is thus a mapping problem, whereby scattered observations are converted into regular accurate maps of wind, temperature, moisture and other variables. The DAO is developing and using 4DDA algorithms that provide these datasets, or analyses, in support of Earth System Science research. Two large-scale algorithms are discussed. The first approach, the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), uses an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and an observation-space based analysis system, the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). GEOS DAS is very similar to global meteorological weather forecasting data assimilation systems, but is used at NASA for climate research. Systems of this size typically run at between 1 and 20 gigaflop/s. The second approach, the Kalman filter, uses a more consistent algorithm to determine the forecast error covariance matrix than does GEOS DAS. For atmospheric assimilation, the gridded dynamical fields typically have More than 10(exp 6) variables, therefore the full error covariance matrix may be in excess of a teraword. For the Kalman filter this problem can easily scale to petaflop/s proportions. We discuss the computational complexity of GEOS DAS and our implementation of the Kalman filter. We also discuss and quantify some of the technical issues and limitations in developing efficient, in terms of wall clock time, and scalable parallel implementations of the algorithms.

Lyster, Peter M.↗

Modeling of the Coupled Magnetospheric and Neutral Wind Dynamos

Over the past four years of funding, SRI, in collaboration with the University of Texas at Dallas, has been involved in assessing the influence of thermospheric neutral winds on the electric field and current systems at high latitudes. The initial direction of the project was to perform a set of numerical experiments concerning the contribution of the magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamo processes, under specific boundary conditions, to the polarization electric field and/or the field-aligned current distribution at high latitudes. To facilitate these numerical experiments we developed a numerical scheme that relied on using output from the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIGCM), expanding them in the form of spherical harmonics and solving the dynamo equations spectrally. Once initial calculations were completed, it was recognized that the neutral wind contribution could be significant but its actual contribution to the electric field or currents depended strongly on the generator properties of the magnetosphere. Solutions to this problem are not unique because of the unknown characteristics of the magnetospheric generator, therefore the focus was on two limiting cases. One limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a voltage generator delivering a fixed voltage to the high-latitude ionosphere and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the current system. The second limiting case was to consider the magnetosphere as a current generator and allowing for the neutral wind dynamo to contribute only to the generation of polarization electric fields. This work was completed and presented at the l994 Fall AGU meeting. The direction of the project then shifted to applying the Poynting flux concept to the high-latitude ionosphere. This concept was more attractive as it evaluated the influence of neutral winds on the high-latitude electrodynamics without actually having to determine the generator characteristics of the magnetosphere. The influence of the neutral wind was then determined not by estimating how much electric potential or current density it provides, but by determining the contribution of the neutral wind to the net electromagnetic energy transferred between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The estimate of the net electromagnetic energy transfer and the role of the neutral winds proves to be a more fundamental quantity in studies of magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling also showed that by using electric and magnetic field measurements from the HILAT satellite, the Poynting flux could be a measurable quantity from polar-orbiting, low- altitude spacecraft. Through collaboration with Dr. Heelis and others at UTD and their expertise of the electric field measurements on the DE-B satellite, an extensive analysis was planned to determine the Poynting flux from the DE-B measurements in combination with a modeling effort to help interpret the observations taking into account the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere.

Thayer, Jeffrey P.↗

General atmospheric circulation driven by polar and diurnal surface temperature variations.

Described is a global circulation model for the Venus atmosphere that includes the effects of both polar cooling and diurnal temperature variation. It is based on a linearized Boussinesq approximation and boundary conditions derived from theoretical and empirical considerations. The time-dependent, three-dimensional flow field is deduced without any a priori assumptions about its configuration. Results show that the mean atmospheric motions are essentially zonal in a narrow belt near the equator and change to become meridional over most of the globe. The circulation pattern is not symmetrical and rotates about the polar axis of the planet with the period of the solar day.

Bohachevsky, I. O.↗

Does The Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?

Observations and analyses of water vapor and clouds in the tropics over the past decade suggest a different approach to radiative climate feedbacks: namely, that high clouds and high free-tropospheric relative humidity are largely tied to each other, and that the main feedback consists in changing the relative areas of cloudy/moist regions vis a vis clear/dry regions in response to the surface temperature of the cloudy/moist regions - as opposed to altering the humidity in either of the regions. This is an intrinsically 2-dimensional (horizontal and vertical) effect which does not readily enter simple 1-dimensional (vertical) radiative-convective schemes which emphasize average humidity, etc. Preliminary analyses of cloud data for the eastern part of the Western Pacific from the Japanese GMS-5(Geostationary Meteorological Satellite), are supportive of this suggestion - pointing to a 15% reduction in cloudy/moist area for a 1C increase of the sea surface temperature as measured by the cloud-weighted SST (sea surface temperature). The implication of this result is examined using a simple 2-dimensional radiative-convective model. The calculations show that such a change in the tropics would lead to a strong negative feedback in the global climate, with a feedback factor of about -1.7, which, if correct, would easily dominate the positive water vapor feedback found in current models. This new feedback mechanism, in effect, constitutes an adaptive infrared iris that opens and closes in order to control the OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) in response to changes in surface temperature in a manner similar to the way in which an eye's iris opens and closes in response to changing light levels. The climate sensitivity resulting from this thermostatic mechanism is consistent with the independent determination by Lindzen and Giannitisis (1998). Preliminary attempts to replicate observations with GCMs (General Circulation Models) suggest that models lack such a negative cloud/moist areal feedback.

Lindzen, Richard S.↗

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Simulation of Water Sources and Precipitation Recycling for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River Basins

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-1997 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, we include passive tracers to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin s precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin has only a weak interannual dependency on evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin has strong interannual dependencies on evaporation. While the precipitation recycling weakens with increased low level jet intensity, the evaporation variations exert stronger influence in providing water vapor for convective precipitation at the convective cloud base. High precipitation recycling is also found to be partly connected to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so that the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-year period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin scale water budgets.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗