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DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning for Solar Technology Portfolio Management

Technology readiness level (TRL) labeling and forecasting today is done entirely manually. A computationally-assisted model of a TRL-like classification for estimation and tracking could enable a research and development (R&D) portfolio manager to more accurately estimate the relative level of development for technologies in that portfolio. This report describes the work to understand readiness level systems, train a machine learning algorithm to recognize textual indicators of particular readiness levels within written material from carefully chosen case studies in renewable technology development, and apply that algorithm to predict the readiness levels of other technology development cases. We account for the results of each step of the work conducted, including the predictive accuracy of the trained model: 54% correct, within a +/-1 readiness level error threshold and a root mean squared error of 1.88. Great potential remains to improve and apply this model for management of individual projects and across portfolios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning for Solar Technology Portfolio Management

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Polarized Radar for Detection and Automatic Non-Visual Assessment of Unmanned Aerial Systems

This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort performed fundamental Research and Development (R&D) to develop a robust radar processing algorithm capable of assessing the difference between an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) and a biological target such as a bird, based on mathematics applied to the polarized radar returns of the target object, alone. The current threats of using such a UAS as a delivery platform for a host of destructive components is a major concern for the protection of various assets. Most recently, on 14th Sept. 2019, dozens of suicide or kamikaze drones (UAV-X) coordinated an attack on two Saudi oil facilities that demonstrated the potential to disrupt global oil supplies. While radar-based UAS detection systems can detect UAS at ranges greater than 1-km, the issues of excessive Nuisance/False Alarm Rates (NAR/FAR) from natural sources (birds in particular) has not been sufficiently addressed. In this effort we describe and utilize the Adaptive Polarization Difference Imaging-based (APDI) algorithms for the detection and automatic non-visual assessment of Unmanned Aerial System applications. Originally developed for optical imaging and sensing of polarization information in nature, the algorithms developed here are modified to serve for the target detection purposes in counter-UAS (cUAS) environments. We exploit the polarization statistics of the observing scene for detection and identification of changes within the scene and assess from these changes for UAS/bird classifications. Several cases are considered from independent data sources, including numerically generated data, anechoic chamber data as well as experimental radar data, to show the applicability of the techniques developed here. The methods developed in this effort are designed to be used in cUAS setups but have shown promise for a multitude of other radar-based classification uses as well.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1975

Adaptive statistical pattern classifiers for remotely sensed data

A technique for the adaptive estimation of nonstationary statistics necessary for Bayesian classification is developed. The basic approach to the adaptive estimation procedure consists of two steps: (1) an optimal stochastic approximation of the parameters of interest and (2) a projection of the parameters in time or position. A divergence criterion is developed to monitor algorithm performance. Comparative results of adaptive and nonadaptive classifier tests are presented for simulated four dimensional spectral scan data.

Gonzalez, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Space Shuttle cloud detection and earth feature classification experiment

The Feature Identification and Location Experiment (FILE) that is being designed for the detection and classification of four primary earth features (water, vegetation, bare land, and the clouds-snow-ice class) is described. Consideration is given to the FILE classification technology concept and the FILE instrument, which will use two solid-state CCD cameras operating at 0.65 and 0.85-micron center frequency wavelengths, with the camera outputs being functions of the earth surface material radiance. The classification is based on camera output radiance ratio values. The preliminary analysis of the data collected on the STS 41-G mission is discussed. The results demonstrated the suitability of using the two-channel-ratio detection technology and a simple (y = mx) algorithm to autonomously classify the four earth surface features. The technology is especially attractive as a cloud sensor, where, in advance of or during a mission, a threshold value for cloud cover percentage can be programmed and/or adaptively modified for use in the control of other remote sensors.

Sivertson, W. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Software Package for Neural Network Applications Development

Original Backprop (Version 1.2) is an MS-DOS package of four stand-alone C-language programs that enable users to develop neural network solutions to a variety of practical problems. Original Backprop generates three-layer, feed-forward (series-coupled) networks which map fixed-length input vectors into fixed length output vectors through an intermediate (hidden) layer of binary threshold units. Version 1.2 can handle up to 200 input vectors at a time, each having up to 128 real-valued components. The first subprogram, TSET, appends a number (up to 16) of classification bits to each input, thus creating a training set of input output pairs. The second subprogram, BACKPROP, creates a trilayer network to do the prescribed mapping and modifies the weights of its connections incrementally until the training set is leaned. The learning algorithm is the 'back-propagating error correction procedures first described by F. Rosenblatt in 1961. The third subprogram, VIEWNET, lets the trained network be examined, tested, and 'pruned' (by the deletion of unnecessary hidden units). The fourth subprogram, DONET, makes a TSR routine by which the finished product of the neural net design-and-training exercise can be consulted under other MS-DOS applications.

Baran, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

Kiang, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2020

TensorFlow Quantum: A Software Framework for Quantum Machine Learning

We introduce TensorFlow Quantum (TFQ), an open source library for the rapid prototyping of hybrid quantum-classical models for classical or quantum data. This framework offers high-level abstractions for the design and training of both discriminative and generative quantum models under TensorFlow and supports high-performance quantum circuit simulators. We provide an overview of the software architecture and building blocks through several examples and review the theory of hybrid quantum-classical neural networks. We illustrate TFQ functionalities via several basic applications including supervised learning for quantum classification, quantum control, simulating noisy quantum circuits, and quantum approximate optimization. Moreover, we demonstrate how one can apply TFQ to tackle advanced quantum learning tasks including meta-learning, layerwise learning, Hamiltonian learning, sampling thermal states, variational quantum eigensolvers, classification of quantum phase transitions, generative adversarial networks, and reinforcement learning. We hope this framework provides the necessary tools for the quantum computing and machine learning research communities to explore models of both natural and artificial quantum systems, and ultimately discover new quantum algorithms which could potentially yield a quantum advantage.

Broughton, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Downwelling Far- and Thermal-Infrared Hyperspectral Radiance for Cloud Phase Classification in the Antarctic

The cloud phase is one of the most important parameters of clouds. In this paper, we propose a method for cloud phase classification that synergistically utilizes the far- and thermal-infrared bands based on the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) observatory in 2016. The possible features in the far- and thermal-infrared bands are analyzed based on the differences in the simulated cloud brightness temperature (BT) spectra with different cloud phases. Using the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, four features are determined to identify the cloud phase, which include the BT at 900 cm -1 , the slope of the fitted function of BT in the 900–1000 cm -1 interval, the BT difference (BTD) between 512 cm -1 and 726 cm -1 , and the BTD between 550 cm -1 and 726 cm -1 . Here, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated with Shupe’s and Turner’s method. The monthly average accuracy of the proposed method, the method without the two far-infrared features, and Turner’s method are about 76%, 36%, and 49%, respectively, which infer the good performance of the proposed method and also indicate that the far-infrared band features can effectively enhance cloud phase classification. It is notable that, compared to Shupe’s method, the accuracy for the proposed method is only 61% during the Antarctic summer, which results from the definitions of cloud phase and radiative effect. In addition, the accuracy is only 44% for Turner’s method in seasons with a low frequency of mixed clouds due to the significant effect of water vapor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Latent Laplacian Maximum Entropy Discrimination for Detection of High-Utility Anomalies

Data-driven anomaly detection methods suffer from the drawback of detecting all instances that are statistically rare, irrespective of whether the detected instances have realworld significance or not. In this paper, we are interested in the problem of specifically detecting anomalous instances that are known to have high real-world utility, while ignoring the low-utility statistically anomalous instances. To this end, we propose a novel method called Latent Laplacian Maximum Entropy Discrimination (LatLapMED) as a potential solution. This method uses the EM algorithm to simultaneously incorporate the Geometric Entropy Minimization principle for identifying statistical anomalies, and the Maximum Entropy Discrimination principle to incorporate utility labels, in order to detect highutility anomalies. Here, we apply our method in both simulated and real datasets to demonstrate that it has superior performance over existing alternatives that independently pre-process with unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms before classifying.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Layer-Parallel Training of Deep Residual Neural Networks

Residual neural networks (ResNets) are a promising class of deep neural networks that have shown excellent performance for a number of learning tasks, e.g., image classification and recognition. Mathematically, ResNet architectures can be interpreted as forward Euler discretizations of a nonlinear initial value problem whose time-dependent control variables represent the weights of the neural network. Hence, training a ResNet can be cast as an optimal control problem of the associated dynamical system. For similar time-dependent optimal control problems arising in engineering applications, parallel-in-time methods have shown notable improvements in scalability. This paper demonstrates the use of those techniques for efficient and effective training of ResNets. The proposed algorithms replace the classical (sequential) forward and backward propagation through the network layers with a parallel nonlinear multigrid iteration applied to the layer domain. This adds a new dimension of parallelism across layers that is attractive when training very deep networks. From this basic idea, we derive multiple layer-parallel methods. The most efficient version employs a simultaneous optimization approach where updates to the network parameters are based on inexact gradient information in order to speed up the training process. Finally, using numerical examples from supervised classification, we demonstrate that the new approach achieves a training performance similar to that of traditional methods, but enables layer-parallelism and thus provides speedup over layer-serial methods through greater concurrency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

VoroClust: Scalable Clustering for Remote Sensing

Although supervised machine learning provides a powerful framework for image classification and segmentation, it requires comprehensive consistent datasets, which are not available for many remote-sensing applications. Remote-sensing datasets are expensive to collect, and each is acquired under different environmental conditions or with significant variations in system operating parameters. Unsupervised clustering algorithms analyze the structure of each dataset independently, rather than drawing on similarities with existing “training” examples, and are thus well suited for practical remote-sensing applications. We introduce VoroClust, a fast density-based unsupervised clustering algorithm applicable to high-resolution and high-dimensional data. VoroClust runs as fast as distance-based clustering methods, while capturing complex regional geometries at least as well as current-density-based methods. It uses a data-centered sphere cover to reduce computational demands, while still capturing data topology. It then propagates clusters outward from local peaks in density. We show that VoroClust provides fast state-of-the-art clustering for both high-resolution polarimetric synthetic aperture radar and high-dimensional hyperspectral imaging datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Unified Taxonomy for HVAC System Faults

Detecting and diagnosing HVAC faults is critical for maintaining building operation performance, reducing energy waste, and ensuring indoor comfort. An increasing deployment of commercial fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) software tools in commercial buildings in the past decade has significantly increased buildings’ operational reliability and reduced energy consumption. A massive amount of data has been generated by the FDD software tools. However, efficiently utilizing FDD data for ‘big data’ analytics, algorithm improvement, and other data-driven applications is challenging because the format and naming conventions of those data are very customized, unstructured, and hard to interpret. This paper presents the development of a unified taxonomy for HVAC faults. A taxonomy is an orderly classification of HVAC faults according to their characteristics and causal relations. The taxonomy includes fault categorization, physical hierarchy, fault library, relation model, and naming/tagging scheme. The taxonomy employs both a physical hierarchy of HVAC equipment and a cause-effect relationship model to reveal the root causes of faults in HVAC systems. A structured and standardized vocabulary library is developed to increase data representability and interpretability. The developed fault taxonomy can be used for HVAC system ‘big data’ analytics such as HVAC system fault prevalence analysis or the development of an HVAC FDD software standard. A common type of HVAC equipment-packaged rooftop unit (RTU) is used as an example to demonstrate the application of the developed fault taxonomy. Two RTU FDD software tools are used to show that after mapping FDD data according to the taxonomy, the meta-analysis of the multiple FDD reports is possible and efficient.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulated meteorological impacts of offshore wind turbines and sensitivity to the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy

Offshore wind energy projects are currently in development off the east coast of the United States and may influence the local meteorology of the region. Wind power production and other commercial uses in this area are related to atmospheric conditions, and so it is important to understand how future wind plants may change the local meteorology. In the absence of measurements of potential wind plant impacts on meteorology, simulations offer the next-best possible insight into wake effects on boundary layer height, temperature, fluxes, and wind speeds. However, simulation tools that capture these effects offer multiple options for representing the amount of turbine-added turbulence that may impact assessments of micrometeorological effects. To explore this sensitivity, we compare 1 year of simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with and without wind plants incorporated, focusing on the lease area south of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The simulations with wind plants are repeated to include both the maximum and minimum amounts of added turbulence to provide bounds on the potential impacts. We assess changes in wind speeds, 2 m temperature, surface heat flux, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and boundary layer height during different stability classifications and ambient wind speeds over the entire year and compare results for the degree of added turbulence in the wind plant simulations. Because the wake behavior may be a function of boundary layer stability, in this paper, we also present a machine learning algorithm to quantify the area and distance of the wake generated by the wind plant. This analysis enables us to identify the relationship between wake extent and boundary layer height. We find that hub-height wind speed is reduced within and downwind of the wind plant, with the strongest impacts occurring during stable conditions and faster wind speeds in region 3 of the turbine power curve, although impacts lessen as wind speeds increase past 15 m s−1. In contrast, wind speeds near the surface decrease when no turbine-added turbulence is included but can increase for stably stratified conditions when 100 % of possible TKE is included in the simulations. TKE increases at hub height in the simulations with added TKE for all stability classes, suggesting that atmospheric stability does not immediately modify the TKE generated by turbines. Negligible changes in hub-height TKE manifest in the simulations without the added TKE. At the surface, TKE increases in the simulations with maximum added turbulence only for unstable conditions. In the no-added-turbulence simulations, surface TKE decreases slightly in neutral and unstable simulations. Differences in 2 m temperatures and surface heat fluxes are small but vary considerably with atmospheric stability and the amount of added TKE. Boundary layer heights increase within the wind plant when turbine-added turbulence is included and decrease slightly downwind during stable conditions. In contrast, with no added turbulence, the boundary layer height is in general reduced in stable conditions with wind speeds less than 15 m s −1 and slightly increased in neutral conditions. Finally, shallower upwind boundary layer heights tend to correlate with larger wake areas and distances, though other factors likely also play a role in determining the extent of the wind plant wake. These simulation-based results provide a bound for micrometeorological impacts of wind plant wakes: simulations that couple the atmosphere to the ocean may reduce these impacts, and we await observational verification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1975

An algorithm for optimal single linear feature extraction from several Gaussian pattern classes

A computational algorithm is presented for the extraction of an optimal single linear feature from several Gaussian pattern classes. The algorithm minimizes the increase in the probability of misclassification in the transformed (feature) space. Numerical results on the application of this procedure to the remotely sensed data from the Purdue Cl flight line as well as LANDSAT data are presented. It was found that classification using the optimal single linear feature yielded a value for the probability of misclassification on the order of 30% less than that obtained by using the best single untransformed feature. Also, the optimal single linear feature gave performance results comparable to those obtained by using the two features which maximized the average divergence.

Starks, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Extracting sea ice data from satellite SAR imagery

With the prospect operational satellite SAR's by the end of the decade, there is a clear need to develop automated algorithms for the extraction of geophysical data about sea ice from high resolution radar imagery. To this end, techniques were developed for distinguishing ice from open water and for resolving the details of deformation within areas 100 km square imaged by SEASAT SAR. The classification of ice and open water is based on the creation of two bands of lower resolution image data: local average brightness, and the local variance of brightness. In the space of these two variables, ice and open water are separated into two distinct clusters. The deformation is found on a 3.4 km mesh by local cross-correlations of the brightness. Comparison with manually determined deformation shows room for improvement in regions of high deformation by using smaller areas for cross-correlation. Th concentration and deformation data are used together to determine localized regions of the scene where open water is produced or lost.

Fily, M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Multiple directed graph large-class multi-spectral processor

Numerical analysis techniques for the interpretation of high-resolution imaging-spectrometer data are described and demonstrated. The method proposed involves the use of (1) a hierarchical classifier with a tree structure generated automatically by a Fisher linear-discriminant-function algorithm and (2) a novel multiple-directed-graph scheme which reduces the local maxima and the number of perturbations required. Results for a 500-class test problem involving simulated imaging-spectrometer data are presented in tables and graphs; 100-percent-correct classification is achieved with an improvement factor of 5.

Casasent, David↗

NASA NTRS1992

Adaptive fuzzy leader clustering of complex data sets in pattern recognition

A modular, unsupervised neural network architecture for clustering and classification of complex data sets is presented. The adaptive fuzzy leader clustering (AFLC) architecture is a hybrid neural-fuzzy system that learns on-line in a stable and efficient manner. The initial classification is performed in two stages: a simple competitive stage and a distance metric comparison stage. The cluster prototypes are then incrementally updated by relocating the centroid positions from fuzzy C-means system equations for the centroids and the membership values. The AFLC algorithm is applied to the Anderson Iris data and laser-luminescent fingerprint image data. It is concluded that the AFLC algorithm successfully classifies features extracted from real data, discrete or continuous.

Newton, Scott C.↗