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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

An observational constraint on stomatal function in forests: evaluating coupled carbon and water vapor exchange with carbon isotopes in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5)

Abstract. Land surface models are useful tools to quantify contemporary and future climate impact on terrestrial carbon cycle processes, provided they can be appropriately constrained and tested with observations. Stable carbon isotopes of CO2 offer the potential to improve model representation of the coupled carbon and water cycles because they are strongly influenced by stomatal function. Recently, a representation of stable carbon isotope discrimination was incorporated into the Community Land Model component of the Community Earth System Model. Here, we tested the model's capability to simulate whole-forest isotope discrimination in a subalpine conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We distinguished between isotopic behavior in response to a decrease of δ13C within atmospheric CO2 (Suess effect) vs. photosynthetic discrimination (Δcanopy), by creating a site-customized atmospheric CO2 and δ13C of CO2 time series. We implemented a seasonally varying Vcmax model calibration that best matched site observations of net CO2 carbon exchange, latent heat exchange, and biomass. The model accurately simulated observed δ13C of needle and stem tissue, but underestimated the δ13C of bulk soil carbon by 1–2 ‰. The model overestimated the multiyear (2006–2012) average Δcanopy relative to prior data-based estimates by 2–4 ‰. The amplitude of the average seasonal cycle of Δcanopy (i.e., higher in spring/fall as compared to summer) was correctly modeled but only when using a revised, fully coupled An − gs (net assimilation rate, stomatal conductance) version of the model in contrast to the partially coupled An − gs version used in the default model. The model attributed most of the seasonal variation in discrimination to An, whereas interannual variation in simulated Δcanopy during the summer months was driven by stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The model simulated a 10 % increase in both photosynthetic discrimination and water-use efficiency (WUE) since 1850 which is counter to established relationships between discrimination and WUE. The isotope observations used here to constrain CLM suggest (1) the model overestimated stomatal conductance and (2) the default CLM approach to representing nitrogen limitation (partially coupled model) was not capable of reproducing observed trends in discrimination. These findings demonstrate that isotope observations can provide important information related to stomatal function driven by environmental stress from VPD and nitrogen limitation. Future versions of CLM that incorporate carbon isotope discrimination are likely to benefit from explicit inclusion of mesophyll conductance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ASME Code Rules and ASTM Standards Integration for Ceramic Composite Core Materials and Components 1

Fiber-reinforced ceramic matrix composites have many desirable properties for high-temperature nuclear applications, including excellent thermal and mechanical properties and reasonable to outstanding radiation resistance. Over the last 20 years, the use of ceramic composite materials has already expanded in many commercial nonnuclear industries as fabrication and application technologies mature. The new ASME design and construction rules under Section III, Subsection HH, Subpart B lay out the requirements and criteria for materials, design, machining and installation, inspection, examination, testing, and the marking procedure for ceramic composite core components, which is similar to the established graphite code under Section III, Subsection HH, Subpart A. Moreover, the general requirements listed in Section III, Subsection HA, Subpart B are also expanded to include ceramic composite materials. The code rules rely heavily on the development and publication of standards for composite specification, classification, and testing of mechanical, thermal, and other properties. These test methods are developed in the American Society for Testing and Materials Committee C28 on Advanced Ceramics with a current focus on ceramic composite tubes. Details of the composites code, design methodology, and similarities to the graphite code, as well as guidance for the development of specifications for ceramic composites for nuclear application and recent standard developments, are discussed. The next step is to "close the gap" to support licensing aspects by validating the code with benchmarking data.

Geringer, Josina↗

In-air and pressurized water reactor environment fatigue experiments of 316 stainless steel to study the effect of environment on cyclic hardening

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), under the sponsorship of Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, is trying to develop a mechanistic approach for more accurate life estimation of LWR components. In this context, ANL has conducted many fatigue experiments under different test and environment conditions on type 316 stainless steel (316SS) material which is widely used in the US reactors. Contrary to the conventional S~N curve based empirical fatigue life estimation approach, the aim of the present DOE sponsored work is to develop an understanding of the material ageing issues more mechanistically (e.g. time dependent hardening and softening) under different test and environmental conditions. Better mechanistic understanding will help develop computer-based advanced modeling tools to better extrapolate stress-strain evolution of reactor components under multi-axial stress states and hence help predict their fatigue life more accurately. In this paper (part-I) the fatigue experiments under different test and environment conditions and related stress-strain results for 316 SS are discussed. In a second paper (part-II) the related evolutionary cyclic plasticity material modeling techniques and results are discussed.

Cyclic plasticity material modeling↗

FY 2016 Status Report: Documentation of All CIRFT Data including Hydride Reorientation Tests (Draft M2)

The first portion of this report provides a detailed description of fiscal year (FY) 2015 test result corrections and analysis updates based on FY 2016 updates to the Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Tester (CIRFT) program methodology, which is used to evaluate the vibration integrity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under normal conditions of transport (NCT). The CIRFT consists of a U-frame test setup and a real-time curvature measurement method. The three-component U-frame setup of the CIRFT has two rigid arms and linkages connecting to a universal testing machine. The curvature SNF rod bending is obtained through a three-point deflection measurement method. Three linear variable differential transformers (LVDTs) are clamped to the side connecting plates of the U-frame and used to capture deformation of the rod. The second portion of this report provides the latest CIRFT data, including data for the hydride reorientation test. The variations in fatigue life are provided in terms of moment, equivalent stress, curvature, and equivalent strain for the tested SNFs. The equivalent stress plot collapsed the data points from all of the SNF samples into a single zone. A detailed examination revealed that, at the same stress level, fatigue lives display a descending order as follows: H. B. Robinson Nuclear Power Station (HBR), LMK, and mixed uranium-plutonium oxide (MOX). Just looking at the strain, LMK fuel has a slightly longer fatigue life than HBR fuel, but the difference is subtle. The third portion of this report provides finite element analysis (FEA) dynamic deformation simulation of SNF assemblies . In a horizontal layout under NCT, the fuel assembly’s skeleton, which is formed by guide tubes and spacer grids, is the primary load bearing apparatus carrying and transferring vibration loads within an SNF assembly. These vibration loads include interaction forces between the SNF assembly and the canister basket walls. Therefore, the integrity of the guide tubes and spacer grids critically affects the vibration intensity of the fuel assembly during transport and must be considered when developing the multipurpose purpose canister (MPC) design for safe SNF transport.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

SU-F-BRA-13: Knowledge-Based Treatment Planning for Prostate LDR Brachytherapy Based On Principle Component Analysis

Purpose: To create a knowledge-based algorithm for prostate LDR brachytherapy treatment planning that standardizes plan quality using seed arrangements tailored to individual physician preferences while being fast enough for real-time planning. Methods: A dataset of 130 prior cases was compiled for a physician with an active prostate seed implant practice. Ten cases were randomly selected to test the algorithm. Contours from the 120 library cases were registered to a common reference frame. Contour variations were characterized on a point by point basis using principle component analysis (PCA). A test case was converted to PCA vectors using the same process and then compared with each library case using a Mahalanobis distance to evaluate similarity. Rank order PCA scores were used to select the best-matched library case. The seed arrangement was extracted from the best-matched case and used as a starting point for planning the test case. Computational time was recorded. Any subsequent modifications were recorded that required input from a treatment planner to achieve an acceptable plan. Results: The computational time required to register contours from a test case and evaluate PCA similarity across the library was approximately 10s. Five of the ten test cases did not require any seed additions, deletions, or moves to obtain an acceptable plan. The remaining five test cases required on average 4.2 seed modifications. The time to complete manual plan modifications was less than 30s in all cases. Conclusion: A knowledge-based treatment planning algorithm was developed for prostate LDR brachytherapy based on principle component analysis. Initial results suggest that this approach can be used to quickly create treatment plans that require few if any modifications by the treatment planner. In general, test case plans have seed arrangements which are very similar to prior cases, and thus are inherently tailored to physician preferences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The SNS Moderator Demonstration Facility

We describe a moderator demonstration facility at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). We will use the Beam Test Facility (BTF) at SNS to provide a moderator neutronics test stand with which we will verify the performance gains expected from the innovative moderator concepts central to the SNS Second Target Station. These concepts include large-volume para-hydrogen moderators and high-brightness moderators, as well as new moderator materials. The BTF provides a test facility for the new Radio-Frequency Quadrupole accelerator (RFQ) to be installed at SNS and produce a pulsed H− beam of 2.5 MeV energy. We will add to the BTF a beam chopper similar to that already used in the SNS at the RFQ exit, various beam transport components, a neutron-producing target, a cryogenic moderator test stand, a reflector-shielding assembly, and a performance assessment neutron beamline.

Iverson, Erik B.↗

FY 2018 Annual Status Report for the Nuclear Fuels and Materials Library

The Nuclear Fuels and Materials Library (NFML), which is owned by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) and curated by the Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF), is a collection of specialized information and nuclear fuel and material samples from past and ongoing irradiation test campaigns. The NFML also includes real-world components retrieved from decommissioned power reactors and donations from other sources. The NFML can be accessed through a web portal at the NSUF web page NSUF.INL.gov or directly at https://nsuf-infrastructure.inl.gov/. The NFML was conceived shortly after the NSUF was established in 2007. The concept was to offer Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) irradiated materials and NSUF project samples that were stored in Idaho National Laboratory (INL) hot cells to researchers for use in NSUF-awarded research projects. The NFML catalogue began as a series of electronic spreadsheets gathered from principal investigators (PI) and INL programs. In the summer of 2016, the spreadsheets were migrated into an online database within the NSUF website. The NFML inventory has continued to grow with the addition of NSUF-funded project specimens, Experimental Breeder Reactor No. 2 (EBR-II) legacy samples, and donated material from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The online library technology further evolved with upgrades for users and administrators of the database. NFML outreach in FY 2018 included NSUF representatives at conferences and workshops domestically and internationally. This document provides a status report on the NFML for FY 2018.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Integrated DM1200 Melter Testing of HLW AZ-102 Composition Using Bubblers (Final Report)

This report documents melter and off-gas performance results obtained on the DM1200 HLW Pilot Melter during processing of simulated HLW AZ-102 feed. The principal objectives of the DM1200 melter testing were to determine the achievable glass production rates for simulated HLW AZ-102 feed; determine the effect of bubbling rate on production rate; characterize melter off-gas emissions; characterize the performance of the prototypical off-gas system components as well as their integrated performance; characterize the feed, glass product, and off-gas effluents; and to perform pre- and post test inspections of system components.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Testing, Characterization, and Modeling of the Resonant Plate Test Environment

The resonant plate shock test is a dynamic test of a mid-field pyroshock environment where a projectile is struck against a plate. The structure undergoing the simulated field shock is mounted to the plate. The plate resonates when struck and provides a two sided shock that is representative of the shock observed in the field. This test environment shock simulates a shock in a single coordinate direction for components looking to provide evidence that they will survive a similar or less shock when deployed in their operating environment. However, testing in one axis at a time provides many challenges. The true environment is a multi-axis environment. The test environment exhibits strong off-axis motion when only motion in one axis is desired. Multiple fixtures are needed for a single test series. It would be advantageous if a single test could be developed that tests the multi-axis environment simultaneously. In order to design such a test, a model must be developed and validated. The model can be iterated in design and configuration until the specified multi-axis environment is met. The test can then execute the model driven test design. This report discusses the resonant plate model needed to design future tests and the steps and methods used to obtain the model. This report also details aspects of the resonant plate test discovered during the process of model development that aids in our understanding of the test.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with EBR-II Tests Performed During the SHRT Testing Program (Rev. 2)

The EBR-II sodium-cooled fast reactor supported a wide range of fast reactor research activities. The final fifteen years of operations at EBR-II were used for experiments and tests to demonstrate the importance of passive safety in liquid metal reactors and the capability of such systems to provide strong passive responses during off-normal conditions. The Shutdown Heat Removal Test program at EBR-II provided test data supporting the validation of computer codes for design, licensing, and operation of LMRs, among other objectives. The program included nearly sixty tests, most of which were protected and unprotected loss of flow and loss of heat sink tests run at various initial powers and flow rates. This report documents the results of modeling and simulation of tests from the Shutdown Heat Removal Test program to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. SHRT-17 and SHRT-6 were protected loss of flow tests where a loss of electrical power to all sodium coolant pumps was simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of natural circulation cooling characteristics. SHRT-45R, SHRT-39, and SHRT-43R were unprotected loss of flow tests where the control rod scram function of the plant protection system was disabled to demonstrate the effectiveness of EBR-II’s passive reactivity feedbacks. BOP-301 and BOP-302R were unprotected loss of heat sink tests that demonstrated how reactivity feedback effects driven by changes to the core inlet temperature can shut down the fission process. PICT-5/6 demonstrated how core power could be increased and decreased via changes in the intermediate sodium and feedwater flow rates. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project for benchmark analysis of the EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Tests. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 models originally developed for the CRP have been modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Differences between the predicted and measured test data were explored and the causes of these differences were identified as being due to modeling approximations, uncertainty in transient component behavior, and instrumentation uncertainties. Overall, it was concluded that for all tests simulated there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Electromagnetic Energy-Assisted Thermal Conversion of Fossil-Based Hydrocarbons to Low-Cost Hydrogen

The goal of this project was to develop and optimize catalysts for methane decomposition, particularly focusing on regeneration via an electromagnetic energy-assisted mechanism, to produce hydrogen more cost-effectively compared to electrolysis routes. To achieve this goal, the project pursued several key objectives. The project began with the preparation and testing of various catalysts. A nickel-silica based catalyst was identified as the most promising material for the pyrolysis of methane into carbon and hydrogen. Kinetic parameters for methane decomposition were determined, aiding in computational modeling efforts. Structured catalysts were investigated, highlighting the need for frequent cleaning or regeneration to maintain performance, with methane conversion rates exceeding 70% in tube furnace tests. Computational fluid dynamics modeling was employed to optimize reactor designs and electrode angles, leading the project team to propose a multi-compartment thermal conversion system for larger setups. This modeling work was important in understanding reaction characteristics, carbon deposition rates, and temperature profiles under various conditions. A bench-scale reactor system was assembled to evaluate catalyst regeneration using electromagnetic energy-assisted mechanisms. Experiments demonstrated the potential for carbon removal, though further optimization is needed. The carbon produced from the methane conversion process was evaluated for potential use in lithium-ion battery electrodes. The carbon exhibited properties similar to commercially available high-purity multi-walled carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, with a carbon content greater than 95%. Coin cell batteries assembled with this carbon showed that lower replacement levels (10% to 33%) outperformed the control group, improving specific capacity density and stability. However, higher replacement levels (100%) demonstrated poorer performance, suggesting that excessive carbon substitution negatively impacts battery performance. These findings indicate the potential marketability of the produced carbon as a component in lithium-ion batteries, though further testing is necessary to confirm long-term advantages and disadvantages associated with the use of the carbon product. These results however justified further technoeconomic assessments to determine if the process can provide low-cost hydrogen. The economic feasibility and technical performance of methane decomposition for hydrogen production were assessed, focusing on three plant configurations: 100E (electrically heated), 100C (combustion heated using produced hydrogen), and PE-Hybrid (a combination of pyrolysis (indicating decomposition) and electrolysis). The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) for the pyrolysis configurations was found to be approximately 25% lower than that of electrolysis. The 100E configuration had the lowest LCOH at $\$$3.12/kg. Including carbon product sales significantly improved the economics, with the 100C configuration achieving a negative LCOH of -$\$$0.35/kg. The PE-Hybrid configuration was not economically advantageous compared to pure pyrolysis plants due to its complexity and additional equipment requirements. Ultimately, methane pyrolysis presents a viable method for near carbon dioxide-free hydrogen production, with significant economic advantages over electrolysis, especially when considering the sale of carbon byproducts. The 100E and 100C configurations showed the most promise, with the choice between them ultimately depending on the prices of power and natural gas. In conclusion, this technology has the potential to lower hydrogen production costs by leveraging the methane decomposition process with the sale of valuable carbon byproducts. By optimizing catalyst performance and integrating electromagnetic energy-assisted regeneration, the process can achieve higher efficiency and economic viability, making it a competitive alternative to traditional hydrogen production methods.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DM1200 Tests with C-104/AY-101 HLW Simulants (Final Report)

This report documents melter and off-gas performance results obtained on the DM1200 HLW Pilot Melter during processing of simulated HLW C-104/AY-101 feed. The principal objectives of the DM1200 melter testing were to determine the achievable glass production rates for simulated HLW C-104/AY-101 feed; determine the effect of bubbling rate on production rate; characterize melter off-gas emissions; characterize the performance of the prototypical off-gas system components as well as their integrated performance; characterize the feed, glass product, and off-gas effluents; and to perform pre- and post test inspections of system components.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluation of the Long-Term Operating Life of Chromium-Molybdenum-Vanadium Steel Components with Respect to Micro-Damage

Stress-rupture strength tests are performed and metal micro-damage is studied in an electron microscope for a body made of chromium-molybdenum-vanadium steel 15Kh1M1FL with a long (331,000 h) running time. Dependences are found for metal endurance on relative integrity, and images are given for different scale points of micro-damage. On the basis of conformity of damaging effects on the life of fixed values of integrity and micro-damage scale points residual life factoors are determined for the main points of the scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Advanced Ultrasupercritical (AUSC) Materials Thick-Walled Cycling Header Development for ComTest-AUSC (Final Report)

Alstom Power Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the General Electric Company (GE) recently completed “Advanced Ultrasupercritical (AUSC) Materials Thick-Walled Cycling Header Development for ComTest-AUSC” under Award No. DE-FE0026183 for the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL). This project developed a design for testing of a high temperature nickel-based superalloy thick-walled header to simulate cycling and flexible plant operation in new and existing plants. The objective was to simulate the expected thermal stresses of a new AUSC plant or a retrofit header in an existing plant to improve flexible dynamic operation while maintaining component integrity and overall power plant reliability. The high performance superalloy materials that enable higher operating temperatures and pressures can support future transformational power technologies including new AUSC plants at 4250-5000 psi, 730°C/760°C or will serve as a replacement component in a repowered or retrofit USC coal powered cycling plant at 3600 psi, 600°C. These alloys can also enable supercritical CO2 cycles, nuclear power, solar power and more efficient natural gas combined cycle units as targeted by the U.S. DOE/NETL Cross-Cutting Research Technology Program Plan. Recently developed advanced nickel alloys such as Inconel 740H (740H) and Haynes 282 (H282) have been successfully tested on a pilot scale for fireside corrosion using steam loop tubing at AUSC temperatures of 760°C in actual operating coal fired boiler. These high strength materials have been demonstrated their adequacy for use in other high temperature boiler components such as superheater tubes. Thick-walled superheater outlet headers which operate at high temperatures and pressure under severe cycling condition are considered as one of the most critical component in the AUSC coal fired boiler. Over the design life of a plant, these headers are exposed to the most severe fatigue and creep damage accumulation and need to be properly designed for the expected cycling in an AUSC plant with flexible operation. These materials need to demonstrate adequate design life of 20 to 30 years for creep and fatigue conditions. The following tasks were performed: 1. A conceptual design was developed of a thick-walled component representative of typical headers with several tube connections and proper flow rates (~100,000 lbs/hr) suitable for Phase II test at 760°C operation. This was based on a process analysis of expected full scale new and component retrofit designs for AUSC; 2. A multi-physics flow and heat transfer computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the component for proper layout of the header configuration, number and geometry (size) of tubes required for bypass flow, flow rates through the tubing, and sectional pressure drops was performed. Steam to header metal heat transfer film coefficients in the header section and the tubes during the two stages (half load and full load) of the cycling operation were evaluated and used in the stress analysis; 3. Detailed analytical evaluation of the thick-walled pipe and tube connections for mechanical integrity under cycling conditions was performed. This included transient thermal stress analysis and fatigue usage estimation including the tube-to-pipe weld geometries and weld materials; 4. A layout and design of the thick-walled test component was developed and instrumentation required for a test was identified; 5. Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) creep prediction models were extended to 740H and H282 and validated with public data on 740H and H282 for use in creep analysis. In addition, detailed creep analyses were performed separately for the design life of the conceptual AUSC superheater outlet header using these General Electric (GE) creep constitutive models. GE was the prime contractor for the project, which was directed by Principal Investigator Robert Schrecengost and Lead Scientist Dr. B. Reddy Ganta. Other collaborative participants in this project included GE Global Research, GE Boiler Engineering, and a Technical Consultant from EPRI.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (Phase III Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership (BSCSP) pursued a Phase III demonstration project at Kevin Dome in north central Montana. Kevin Dome covers approximately 700 square miles and is a naturally occurring CO 2 reservoir that is flanked by oil and gas fields. The carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is in the upper Devonian Duperow (carbonate) formation and does not reach the spill point of the dome; therefore, the dome has potential as a CO 2 sequestration reservoir, a CO 2 supply, or as both if anthropogenic sources and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations are associated with the dome. Kevin Dome could potentially act as a buffer to continue accepting anthropogenic CO 2 when EOR flooding operations are interrupted or completed. The project objective was to produce one million tonnes of CO 2 from the gas cap of Kevin Dome, pipe it laterally, inject, and re-store it in the brine leg of the same formation to test the hub / buffer storage concept. This was to be accomplished by drilling up to five production wells, building a short pipeline and compression facilities, and drilling an injection well and several monitoring wells. BSCSP commenced outreach and site characterization activities including acquiring baseline data for near-surface insurance monitoring, acquiring 3-dimensional, 9-component surface seismic over the project area, drilling two test wells (one in the production area and one in the injection area), coring key intervals, and performing comprehensive logging. Well tests of those wells revealed two barriers to the project. The production (Danielson 33-17) well was perforated in multiple zones but failed to produce any significant CO 2 . This was despite being drilled in the near vicinity of a historic well that had produced 3700 MCF per day in a drill stem test. Modeling indicated that this was likely due to a phase change during production causing a temperature drop resulting in hydrate and/or water ice formation that clogged the formation. Tests of the injection zone (Wallewein 22-1) well indicated total dissolved solids (TDS) slightly below the EPA required 10,000 parts per million (ppm) for a Class VI underground injection control permit. While the project was initiated before Class VI rules were promulgated, and this was an experimental project (seemingly qualified for a Class V permit), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicated that injection would require a Class VI permit. The low salinity result was unexpected as contours plotted based on regional formation water quality data indicated an expected TDS above 20,000 ppm, and wells between the recharge zone and the Wallewein well tested above 10,000 ppm. Faced with the inability to obtain an injection permit, the demonstration project could not proceed. However, the project had generated valuable samples and data on a large natural analog including 32 sq. mi. of 3-D, 9-C seismic, 430 ft. of carbonate core covering seven different depositional environments taken from areas with, and without the presence of CO 2 , 30 ft. of core of two caprocks, a tight carbonate and an anhydrite, a full set of modern logs on both wells, and well tests. DOE decided to re-scope the project around completing studies utilizing this data. This report covers both the initial scope and the re-scope (Task / Section numbers preceded with an R). While the report covers a wide range of project activities, highlights of this work include: Development of a geostatic model using neural nets to match well logs to facies and using multi-waveform seismic to inform reservoir heterogeneity; Unique mechanical testing of permeability – stress relationship in two caprock materials; Development of full waveform inversion to generate a high resolution velocity model; Model development for dual permeability (fracture and matrix) systems to better account for matrix-matrix interactions; Joint seismic wave inversion (including the first quadr-joint inversion) exhibiting better imaging of a challenging reservoir zone in stiff rock; Core flow and core flood results on a reactive carbonate; and Innovative laboratory measurements of seismic response of fractured core as a function of fluid fill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CyTRICS: Vulnerability Analysis Tailored for Critical Infrastructure

Society and modern life are dependent on critical infrastructure that is composed of expensive, special purpose devices that have long life cycles and may be in use for decades before being replaced. There are an abundance of organizations and individuals doing vulnerability analysis on a variety of systems, but what makes the Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems (CyTRICS) program unique and valuable is its strategic focus on high-priority critical infrastructure, close partnership with vendors, and ability to leverage bills of materials (BOMs) to identify and relate vulnerabilities to affected systems. Creating a bill of materials is a formal way of understanding and documenting the components of a system, including everything from integrated circuits to operating systems to third-party libraries. This is beneficial for connecting known vulnerabilities to affected devices, since vulnerabilities in a specific component are often not mapped to all systems that use that vulnerable component. Additionally, CyTRICS finds novel vulnerabilities through its vulnerability testing process and works closely with vendor partners to provide vulnerability reports so that affected systems can be patched in a timely manner. This presentation will describe the interrelated technical processes CyTRICS uses to create bills of materials and conduct vulnerability analysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Safety envelope for load tolerance of structural element design based on multi-stage testing

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope using Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A three-point velocity estimation method for two-dimensional coarse-grained imaging data

Time delay and velocity estimation methods have been widely studied subjects in the context of signal processing, with applications in many different fields of physics. The velocity of waves or coherent fluctuation structures is commonly estimated as the distance between two measurement points divided by the time lag that maximizes the cross correlation function between the measured signals, but this is demonstrated to result in erroneous estimates for two spatial dimensions. We present an improved method to accurately estimate both components of the velocity vector, relying on three non-aligned measurement points. We introduce a stochastic process describing the fluctuations as a superposition of uncorrelated pulses moving in two dimensions. Using this model, we show that the three-point velocity estimation method, using time delays calculated through cross correlations, yields the exact velocity components when all pulses have the same velocity. The two- and three-point methods are tested on synthetic data generated from realizations of such processes for which the underlying velocity components are known. The results reveal the superiority of the three-point technique. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the velocity estimation on gas puff imaging data of strongly intermittent plasma fluctuations due to the radial motion of coherent, blob-like structures at the boundary of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak.

Materials Science↗