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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed using a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify deficiencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the measured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the definition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares fit of the predicted to the measured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new definition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed us- ing a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify de ciencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the mea- sured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the de nition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares t of the predicted to the mea- sured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new de nition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

Using the Diffusion Equation to Predict CST Resin Breakthroughs - 19051

The crystalline silicotitanate, CST, resin manufactured by UOP Honeywell is well-suited for single-use decontamination of caustic liquid wastes at Hanford and Savannah River Sites. There are many measurements of column loading and breakthrough for CST resin decontamination of Cs-137 in various Hanford and SRS waste simulants. Such measurements provide a very good basis for estimating CST resin demand and these more refined predictions make the CST column loading as efficient as possible given the very expensive CST resin. Although there are a variety of tools for predicting chromatographic resin column performance, [1-4], there is a particularly useful method that is suitable as a simple spreadsheet model [4]. This spreadsheet model is an analytical error function for the mass transfer zone (mtz) diffusion width in resin columns and is well-suited for resin breakthrough and column loading. This paper describes just such an error function spreadsheet model and how well the error function agrees with more traditional models and fits the observed small scale breakthrough curves for CST that can then better predict large scale column loading efficiency. The very high sorption of Cs onto CST tends to be slower than that of other lower sorption resins and as a result of the slow CST kinetics, there is also a marked asymmetry in many CST breakthrough curves. The CST breakthrough asymmetry is largely due to the distribution of CST particle sizes because smaller particles sorb much faster than larger particles. It is then the smaller particles that determine the leading mtz at a decontamination factor of 1,000 breakthrough and therefore the decontamination efficiency for a given loading. The larger CST particles correspondingly determine the tailing mtz width and therefore the overall loading efficiency and it is important to model both leading and tailing mtz widths to best optimize CST for a particular Cs-137 decontamination application. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales: fine-scale recovery, error estimation, and coarse-scale adaptivity

There are several engineering applications in which the assumptions of homogenization and scale separation may be violated, in particular, for metallic structures constructed through additive manufacturing. Instead of resorting to direct numerical simulation of the macroscale system with an embedded fine scale, an alternative approach is to use an approximate macroscale constitutive model, but then estimate the model-form error using a posteriori error estimation techniques and subsequently adapt the macroscale model to reduce the error for a given boundary value problem and quantity of interest. Here, we investigate this approach to multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales using the example of an additively manufactured metallic structure consisting of a polycrystalline microstructure that is neither periodic nor statistically homogeneous. As a first step to the general nonlinear case, we focus here on linear elasticity in which each grain within the polycrystal is linear elastic but anisotropic.

42 ENGINEERING↗

TU-H-CAMPUS-JeP3-05: Adaptive Determination of Needle Sequence HDR Prostate Brachytherapy with Divergent Needle-By-Needle Delivery

Purpose: To develop a new method which adaptively determines the optimal needle insertion sequence for HDR prostate brachytherapy involving divergent needle-by-needle dose delivery by e.g. a robotic device. A needle insertion sequence is calculated at the beginning of the intervention and updated after each needle insertion with feedback on needle positioning errors. Methods: Needle positioning errors and anatomy changes may occur during HDR brachytherapy which can lead to errors in the delivered dose. A novel strategy was developed to calculate and update the needle sequence and the dose plan after each needle insertion with feedback on needle positioning errors. The dose plan optimization was performed by numerical simulations. The proposed needle sequence determination optimizes the final dose distribution based on the dose coverage impact of each needle. This impact is predicted stochastically by needle insertion simulations. HDR procedures were simulated with varying number of needle insertions (4 to 12) using 11 patient MR data-sets with PTV, prostate, urethra, bladder and rectum delineated. Needle positioning errors were modeled by random normally distributed angulation errors (standard deviation of 3 mm at the needle’s tip). The final dose parameters were compared in the situations where the needle with the largest vs. the smallest dose coverage impact was selected at each insertion. Results: Over all scenarios, the percentage of clinically acceptable final dose distribution improved when the needle selected had the largest dose coverage impact (91%) compared to the smallest (88%). The differences were larger for few (4 to 6) needle insertions (maximum difference scenario: 79% vs. 60%). The computation time of the needle sequence optimization was below 60s. Conclusion: A new adaptive needle sequence determination for HDR prostate brachytherapy was developed. Coupled to adaptive planning, the selection of the needle with the largest dose coverage impact increases chances of reaching the clinical constraints. M. Borot de Battisti is funded by Philips Medical Systems Nederland B.V.; M. Moerland is principal investigator on a contract funded by Philips Medical Systems Nederland B.V.; G. Hautvast and D. Binnekamp are fulltime employees of Philips Medical Systems Nederland B.V.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Membrane Distillation Modeling Progress Report Fiscal Year 2016

Membrane distillation is a water purification technology which uses a porous hydrophobic membrane. Liquid water cannot penetrate the membrane at operational pressures but vapor flows through the membrane if there is a vapor pressure difference across the membrane. Many configurations for membrane distillation have been investigated over the last several decades. In this modeling effort, two successful direct contact membrane model development using steady-state control volume balances on energy and mass are presented. Verification and validation of the models is applied to the extent necessary to use the models for comparative design purposes. Significant errors between modeling and experimental membrane distillation data are argued to be due to uncertainty in membrane material property measurements. A second effort to model a vacuum membrane distillation system designed by Memsys® is still progressing. Two efforts have not yet produced output mass flow comparable to the literature. Even so, much of the framework needed to model the Memsys® system is complete.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling the Swift BAT trigger algorithm with machine learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift/BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of ≳97% (≲3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6% (10.4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of n{sub 0}∼0.48{sub −0.23}{sup +0.41} Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1} with power-law indices of n{sub 1}∼1.7{sub −0.5}{sup +0.6} and n{sub 2}∼−5.9{sub −0.1}{sup +5.7} for GRBs above and below a break point of z{sub 1}∼6.8{sub −3.2}{sup +2.8}. This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimation and identification study for flexible vehicles

Techniques are studied for the estimation of rigid body and bending states and the identification of model parameters associated with the single-axis attitude dynamics of a flexible vehicle. This problem is highly nonlinear but completely observable provided sufficient attitude and attitude rate data is available and provided all system bending modes are excited in the observation interval. A sequential estimator tracks the system states in the presence of model parameter errors. A batch estimator identifies all model parameters with high accuracy.

Jazwinski, A. H.↗

Error latency estimation using functional fault modeling

A complete modeling of faults at gate level for a fault tolerant computer is both infeasible and uneconomical. Functional fault modeling is an approach where units are characterized at an intermediate level and then combined to determine fault behavior. The applicability of functional fault modeling to the FTMP is studied. Using this model a forecast of error latency is made for some functional blocks. This approach is useful in representing larger sections of the hardware and aids in uncovering system level deficiencies.

Manthani, S. R.↗

Numerical and experimental evaluation for single-axis control of an LSS laboratory model

One of the major problems of LSS attitude control design stems from the modeling uncertainties due to modal truncation errors and modal parameter estimation errors. This modeling problem is investigated by evaluating poles and zeros of the frequency response functions, described in terms of constrained or unconstrained modes. The frequency domain approach is utilized to evaluated the results of modal analyses and direct output feedback controller experiments using a simple flexible spacecraft model consisting of a rigid primary body and flexible aluminum beam(s) with a control moment gyro as an actuator. The modal data are compared under the conditions that the model is constrained as the canti-lever and it is rotationally free on a single-axis air bearing table. In addition, the open-loop responses are experimentally examined under the impulsive disturbance to the appendage. The results of the control experiments show that the first vibration mode of the appendage and the interacted rotational motion of the primary body are damped in a short time as predicted by the numerical analysis, to produce damping ratio of 10-20%.

Ohkami, Y.↗

Geographically correlated orbit error for the Topex satellite using GPS tracking

This paper reports on ongoing investigations of geographically correlated orbit error performed in support of precise orbit determination for the Topex/Poseidon mission. Tracking data is assumed to be generated with the Global Positioning System. Geographically correlated orbit error due to errors in modeling the gravity field is described and demonstrated. A method for rational selection of the gravity model coefficients which produce significant orbit error is also presented. The effects of these coefficient errors and other error sources is evaluated using a consider covariance approach. Finally, the covariance analysis is used to evaluate the orbit accuracy for Topex using dynamic, reduced dynamic, and kinematic GPS tracking. The reduced dynamic and kinematic approaches to orbit determination are found to have significant advantages with respect to reducing the level of geographically correlated orbit errors.

Rosborough, George↗

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for structural reliability assessment of space flight systems

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for predicting the failure life distribution due to subcritical crack growth is presented. A state-of-the-art crack propagation method is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. The crack growth failure model expresses failure life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A stochastic crack growth rate model that considers the uncertainties due to scatter in the data and mode misspecification is proposed. The rationale for choosing a particular type of probability distribution for each stochastic input parameter and for specifying the distribution parameters is presented. The approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic crack growth failure analysis of a welded tube in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A discussion of the results from this application of the methodology is given.

Sutharshana, S.↗

Data Fusion of In-Flight Aerothermodynamic Heating Measurements Using Kalman Filtering

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 entry system successfully delivered the Perseverance rover to the surface of Mars at Jezero Crater. The entry capsule carried instrumentation installed on the heatshield and backshell, named the Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2. The instruments included pressure transducers, thermocouples, heat flux gauges, and a radiometer to measure the aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance of the entry vehicle. Three of these sensors, a thermocouple plug, heat flux gauge, and a radiometer, were co-located on the backshell. The sensors were exposed to roughly the same aerodynamic heating, but measured these environments in different ways, each with its own set of modeling and measurement error complications. This paper develops a method for blending each of these measurements together in a single algorithm to produce estimates of the aerothermodynamic environments at that backshell location. The approach makes use of the Kalman-Schmidt filter/smoother methodology, where systematic measurement error parameters are modeled as multiplicative states that are estimated by the filter along with the aerothermal states. The results indicate peak convective and radiative heating values of 0.86 and 5.16 W/cm2, respectively, compared to the filter predictive model values of 0.67 and 4.83 W/cm2.

Christopher D Karlgaard↗

Data Fusion of In-Flight Aerothermodynamic Heating Measurements Using Kalman Filtering

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 entry system successfully delivered the Perseverance rover to the surface of Mars at Jezero Crater. The entry capsule carried instrumentation installed on the heatshield and backshell, named the Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2. The instruments included pressure transducers, thermocouples, heat flux gauges, and a radiometer to measure the aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance of the entry vehicle. Three of these sensors, a thermocouple plug, heat flux gauge, and a radiometer, were co-located on the backshell. The sensors were exposed to roughly the same aerodynamic heating, but measured these environments in different ways, each with its own set of modeling and measurement error complications. This paper develops a method for blending each of these measurements together in a single algorithm to produce estimates of the aerothermodynamic environments at that backshell location. The approach makes use of the Kalman-Schmidt filter/smoother methodology, where systematic measurement error parameters are modeled as multiplicative states that are estimated by the filter along with the aerothermal states. The results indicate peak convective and radiative heating values of 0.86 and 5.16 W/cm$^2$, respectively, compared to the filter predictive model values of 0.67 and 4.83 W/cm$^2$.

Christopher D Karlgaard↗

Development of a Data Fusion Methodology for Lineload Aerodynamic Databases for a Launch Vehicle during Liftoff and Transition

The need for databases for the distributed loading on launch vehicles during the early portion of flight necessitates the use of expensive computational flows in regimes where wake effects dominate. While also being expensive, this is a regime that computational tools tend to historically have problems simulating accurately. To help tackle this problem, a method of data fusion to combine computational results to wind tunnel derived force and moment data is developed. Using this method, significant reduction in computational costs and increases in confidence of the final product is possible and has been used to generate several databases for the Space Launch System (SLS) at NASA. While the full details of database generation are not part of this work, the crucial method at its core is developed here. Two SLS geometries are used throughout the work to demonstrate the techniques. These are two of the larger geometries and represent both planned crewed missions to the Moon as well as potential cargo missions to deep space. The method uses principal component analysis (PCA) to generate a reduced ordered model (ROM) to help fill in the full parameter space. Other similar techniques are explored, but were not found to have a significant result on the predictions of the ROM. Because the full number of components are kept to generate the model, this lack of difference is expected. This method is then extended to ensure that predicted surfaces match trusted force and moment data derived from wind tunnel testing. This extension is done by setting up a constrained optimization problem in order to minimize the deviation from the surface resolved computational data while still integrating to the desired values. When generating the constrained optimization problem, a weighting factor to balance these competing needs is introduced. The work compares previously introduced weighting terms from similar work to the proposed terms and shows that the previously used terms do not have as desirable behavior in this flow regime. This method is then expanded by developing a technique to incorporate uncertainty quantification into the developed data fusion methodology. This expansion takes a two pronged approach. One examines transferring the uncertainties in the force and moment database and characterizes how those adjustments change the predicted lineloads. The second looks at model form error and looks how rebuilding the model using slightly different data changes the predictions. These two terms are then combined in order to create an uncertainty model that takes both effects into account. The limitations of the proposed methods is then discussed as well as possible techniques to address these shortcomings.

Launch Vehicles↗

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment. These calibrations (utilizing each of the major data subsets within the solution) yield very stable calibration factors which vary by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests employed. Measurements of gravity anomalies obtained from altimetry were also used directly as observations to show that GEM-T1 is calibrated. The mathematical representation of the covariance error in the presence of unmodeled systematic error effects in the data is analyzed and an optimum weighting technique is developed for these conditions. This technique yields an internal self-calibration of the error model, a process which GEM-T1 is shown to approximate.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Ultimate limits to error probabilities for ionospheric models based on solar geophysical indices and how these compare with the state of the art

An ideal model based on a given set of geophysical indices is defined as a model that provides a least squares fit to the data set as a function of the indices considered. Satellite measurements of electron content for three stations at different magnetic latitudes were used to provide such data sets which were each fitted to the geophysical indices. The magnitude of the difference between the measured value and the derived equation for the data set was used to estimate the probability of making an error greater than a given magnitude for such an ideal model. Atmospheric Explorer C data is used to examine the causes of the fluctuations and suggestions are made about how real improvements can be made in ionospheric forecasting ability. Joule heating inputs in the auroral electrojets are related to the AL and AU magnetic indices. Magnetic indices based on the time integral of the energy deposited in the electrojets are proposed for modeling processes affected by auroral zone heating.

Nisbet, J. S.↗