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NASA NTRS1989

Carrier phase ambiguity resolution for the Global Positioning System applied to geodetic baselines up to 2000 km

A technique for resolving the ambiguities in the GPS carrier phase data (which are biased by an integer number of cycles) is described which can be applied to geodetic baselines up to 2000 km in length and can be used with dual-frequency P code receivers. The results of such application demonstrated that a factor of 3 improvement in baseline accuracy could be obtained, giving centimeter-level agreement with coordinates inferred by very-long-baseline interferometry in the western United States. It was found that a method using pseudorange data is more reliable than one using ionospheric constraints for baselines longer than 200 km. It is recommended that future GPS networks have a wide spectrum of baseline lengths (ranging from baselines shorter than 100 km to those longer than 1000 km) and that GPS receivers be used which can acquire dual-frequency P code data.

Blewitt, Geoffrey↗

NASA NTRS1992

Determining rules for closing customer service centers: A public utility company's fuzzy decision

In the present work, we consider the general problem of knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. A commonly used method is to learn by examples. We observe how the expert solves specific cases and from this infer some rules by which the decision was made. Unique to this work is the fuzzy set representation of the conditions or attributes upon which the decision make may base his fuzzy set decision. From our examples, we infer certain and possible rules containing fuzzy terms. It should be stressed that the procedure determines how closely the expert follows the conditions under consideration in making his decision. We offer two examples pertaining to the possible decision to close a customer service center of a public utility company. In the first example, the decision maker does not follow too closely the conditions. In the second example, the conditions are much more relevant to the decision of the expert.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cassini atmospheric chemistry mapper. Volume 1. Investigation and technical plan

The Cassini Atmospheric Chemistry Mapper (ACM) enables a broad range of atmospheric science investigations for Saturn and Titan by providing high spectral and spatial resolution mapping and occultation capabilities at 3 and 5 microns. ACM can directly address the major atmospheric science objectives for Saturn and for Titan, as defined by the Announcement of Opportunity, with pivotal diagnostic measurements not accessible to any other proposed Cassini instrument. ACM determines mixing ratios for atmospheric molecules from spectral line profiles for an important and extensive volume of the atmosphere of Saturn (and Jupiter). Spatial and vertical profiles of disequilibrium species abundances define Saturn's deep atmosphere, its chemistry, and its vertical transport phenomena. ACM spectral maps provide a unique means to interpret atmospheric conditions in the deep (approximately 1000 bar) atmosphere of Saturn. Deep chemistry and vertical transport is inferred from the vertical and horizontal distribution of a series of disequilibrium species. Solar occultations provide a method to bridge the altitude range in Saturn's (and Titan's) atmosphere that is not accessible to radio science, thermal infrared, and UV spectroscopy with temperature measurements to plus or minus 2K from the analysis of molecular line ratios and to attain an high sensitivity for low-abundance chemical species in the very large column densities that may be achieved during occultations for Saturn. For Titan, ACM solar occultations yield very well resolved (1/6 scale height) vertical mixing ratios column abundances for atmospheric molecular constituents. Occultations also provide for detecting abundant species very high in the upper atmosphere, while at greater depths, detecting the isotopes of C and O, constraining the production mechanisms, and/or sources for the above species. ACM measures the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosols via their opacity at 3 microns and, particularly, at 5 microns. ACM recovers spatially-resolved atmospheric temperatures in Titan's troposphere via 3- and 5-microns spectral transitions. Together, the mixing ratio profiles and the aerosol distributions are utilized to investigate the photochemistry of the stratosphere and consequent formation processes for aerosols. Finally, ring opacities, observed during solar occultations and in reflected sunlight, provide a measurement of the particle size and distribution of ring material. ACM will be the first high spectral resolution mapping spectrometer on an outer planet mission for atmospheric studies while retaining a high resolution spatial mapping capability. ACM, thus, opens an entirely new range of orbital scientific studies of the origin, physio-chemical evolution and structure of the Saturn and Titan atmospheres. ACM provides high angular resolution spectral maps, viewing nadir and near-limb thermal radiation and reflected sunlight; sounds planetary limbs, spatially resolving vertical profiles to several atmospheric scale heights; and measures solar occultations, mapping both atmospheres and rings. ACM's high spectral and spatial resolution mapping capability is achieved with a simplified Fourier Transform spectrometer with a no-moving parts, physically compact design. ACM's simplicity guarantees an inherent stability essential for reliable performance throughout the lengthy Cassini Orbiter mission.

Smith, William Hayden↗

NASA NTRS1992

Determining rules for closing customer service centers: A public utility company's fuzzy decision

In the present work, we consider the general problem of knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. Simply stated, the problem reduces to the following: how can we capture the knowledge of an expert when the expert is unable to clearly formulate how he or she arrives at a decision? A commonly used method is to learn by examples. We observe how the expert solves specific cases and from this infer some rules by which the decision may have been made. Unique to our work is the fuzzy set representation of the conditions or attributes upon which the expert may possibly base his fuzzy decision. From our examples, we infer certain and possible fuzzy rules for closing a customer service center and illustrate the importance of having the decision closely relate to the conditions under consideration.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cooling Rates of Lunar Volcanic Glass Beads

It is widely accepted that the Apollo 15 green and Apollo 17 orange glass beads are of volcanic origin. The diffusion profiles of volatiles in these glass beads are believed to be due to degassing during eruption (Saal et al., 2008). The degree of degassing depends on the initial temperature and cooling rate. Therefore, the estimations of volatiles in parental magmas of lunar pyroclastic deposits depend on melt cooling rates. Furthermore, lunar glass beads may have cooled in volcanic environments on the moon. Therefore, the cooling rates may be used to assess the atmospheric condition in an early moon, when volcanic activities were common. The cooling rates of glasses can be inferred from direct heat capacity measurements on the glasses themselves (Wilding et al., 1995, 1996a,b). This method does not require knowledge of glass cooling environments and has been applied to calculate the cooling rates of natural silicate glasses formed in different terrestrial environments. We have carried out heat capacity measurements on hand-picked lunar glass beads using a Netzsch DSC 404C Pegasus differential scanning calorimeter at University of Munich. Our preliminary results suggest that the cooling rate of Apollo 17 orange glass beads may be ~12 K/min, based on the correlation between temperature of the heat capacity curve peak in the glass transition range and glass cooling rate. The results imply that the parental magmas of lunar pyroclastic deposits may have contained more water initially than the early estimations (Saal et al., 2008), which used higher cooling rates, 60-180 K/min in the modeling. Furthermore, lunar volcanic glass beads could have been cooled in a hot gaseous medium released from volcanic eruptions, not during free flight. Therefore, our results may shed light on atmospheric condition in an early moon.

Hui, Hejiu↗

DOE OSTI2017

Phase 2: Updated Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico

Play fairway analysis (PFA) methodologies, both deterministic and stochastic, are being applied for medium to low enthalpy geothermal resources in the Tularosa Basin, in south-central New Mexico. These PFA methods use datasets representative of heat, groundwater and fault-fracture related permeability to locate areas with the lowest risk of geothermal energy development. Our Phase 1 PFAs predicted several plays throughout the study area, with a range of certainty and risk, based upon legacy data. In Phase 2, new data were collected for high priority plays and integrated into the PFAs to enhance certainty and further reduce risk. Field geology, gravity surveys and alluvial fan geomorphology supplemented the understanding of geologic structure and potential permeability, while additional well sampling, geothermometry and temperature logging provided valuable information about heat in the subsurface. In order to statistically compare and contrast the layers of evidence in the Tularosa Basin with the broader Great Basin, a probabilistic Weights of Evidence analysis was conducted in parallel with the inclusive and deterministic petroleum industry logic PFA. Both methods yielded 3 similar plays, while Weights of Evidence identified 2 additional plays. A sixth play was inferred around the NASA-Aerospace Data Facility Southwest site, north-east of Las Cruces, based on a promising shallow temperature survey, geothermometers, and structural interpretations of geophysical data. Here, the White Sands Missile Range main cantonment (headquarters) play is now given high priority, along with McGregor Range, Fort Bliss, due to the discovery of relatively high geothermometer values.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval

Machine learning (ML) is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using ML algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest (RF) to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new ML model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that yields more accurate inferences than the RF for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use BNNs for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for BNNs that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing ML models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

Adam D. Cobb↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Estimation of Oscillator Parameters: Toward Anomaly Detection and Cyber-Physical System Security

Cyber-physical system security presents unique challenges to conventional measurement science and technology. Anomaly detection in software-assisted physical systems, such as those employed in additive manufacturing or in DNA synthesis, is often hampered by the limited available parameter space of the underlying mechanism that is transducing the anomaly. As a result, the formulation of anomaly detection for such systems often leads to inverse or ill-posed problems, requiring statistical treatments. Here, we present Bayesian inference of unknown parameters associated with a generic actuator considered as a representative vital element of a cyber-physical system. Via a series of experimental input-output measurements, a transfer function for the actuator is obtained numerically, which serves as our model for the proposed method. Linear, nonlinear, and delayed dynamics may be assumed for the actuator response. By devising a code-based malicious signal, we study the efficacy of Bayesian inference for its potential to produce a detection, including uncertainty quantification, with a remarkably small number of input data points. Our approach should be adaptable to a variety of real-time cyber-physical anomaly detection scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Overview of oxygen opacity experiments at the National Ignition Facility and investigation of potential systematic errors

Experiments to measure oxygen opacity at stellar interior conditions have been performed at the National Ignition Facility in a Discovery Science campaign. These experiments utilize the Opacity-on-NIF platform with a sample comprised of O, Mg, and Si. The spectral data from the Opacity Spectrometer cover the 1000–2000 eV photon energy range showing bound-free continuum absorption from O and line absorption from Mg and Si. DANTE and the Gated X-ray Detector are employed to measure the sample plasma’s temperature and density, respectively. Initial data show lower transmission than expected by theoretical models, raising questions of whether potential background or data uniformity concerns could produce systematic errors in the inferred transmission. Here, we investigate three concerns thought to be important for the oxygen opacity data, including instrumental scattered background, sample self-emission non-uniformity, and backlight continuum non-uniformity. Additionally, we show the effect of a recently developed method to account for 2nd order crystal reflection. The total effect of these concerns on one experiment is found to be small compared to the observed difference between the inferred transmission and a model calculation at the inferred temperature and density. Thus, we conclude that these potential sources of systematic error cannot account for the observed difference, increasing the likelihood of a real effect due to the high temperature and density conditions. However, because this is only a single experiment, we cannot make a firm conclusion. More experiments measuring the opacity and necessary calibrations are needed to assess the reproducibility and uncertainty of this result.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Inferences on mass composition and tests of hadronic interactions from 0.3 to 100 EeV using the water-Cherenkov detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory

We present a new method for probing the hadronic interaction models at ultra-high energy and extracting details about mass composition. This is done using the time profiles of the signals recorded with the water-Cherenkov detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The profiles arise from a mix of the muon and electromagnetic components of air-showers. Using the risetimes of the recorded signals we define a new parameter, which we use to compare our observations with predictions from simulations. We find, firstly, inconsistencies between our data and predictions over a greater energy range and with substantially more events than in previous studies. Secondly, by calibrating the new parameter with fluorescence measurements from observations made at the Auger Observatory, we can infer the depth of shower maximum for a sample of over 81,000 events extending from 0.3 EeV to over 100 EeV. Above 30 EeV, the sample is nearly fourteen times larger than currently available from fluorescence measurements and extending the covered energy range by half a decade. The energy dependence of the average depth of shower maximum is compared to simulations and interpreted in terms of the mean of the logarithmic mass. Here, we find good agreement with previous work and extend the measurement of the mean depth of shower maximum to greater energies than before, reducing significantly the statistical uncertainty associated with the inferences about mass composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

On/Off State Classification of a Reactor Facility Using Gas Effluence Measurements

Inferring on/off operational state of a reactor facility using measurements from an independent monitoring system is critical to the assessment of its compliance to agreements. In this paper, we consider the problem of inferring on/off state of a reactor facility using measurements of Ar-41, Cs-138, and Xe-138 gas effluence types collected at the facility’s off-gas stack. We present classifiers based on thresholding measurements of individual effluence types, and then present fusers that combine their outputs or measurements. We present five fusers based on simple majority rule, Chow’s pattern recognition function, Fisher’s combined p-value statistic, physics-based Poisson radiation counts model, and correlation coefficient method. In addition, we also test five machine learning methods based on non-linear classifiers, which are available as R packages. Finally, our results show that: (i) these gas effluence measurements are effective in inferring on/off state of a reactor facility; for example, best fusers achieve ~97% detection at ~1% false alarm rate, and (ii) fusers that combine all effluence types based on physics-based models, correlation coefficient and Fisher’s method outperform simple majority rule, Chow’s fusers and machine learning methods, as well as when they are applied to individual and pairs of effluence types.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

MuyGPyS

MuyGPs is a GP estimation method that affords fast hyperparameter optimization by way of performing leave-one-out cross-validation. MuyGPs achieves best-in-class speed and scalability by limiting inference to the information contained in k nearest neighborhoods for prediction locations for both hyperparameter optimization and tuning. This feature affords the optimization of hyperparameters by way of leave-one-out cross-validation, as opposed to the more expensive loglikelihood evaluations requires by similar sparse methods

Priest, BenjaminW.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Single Episode Policy Transfer in Reinforcement Learning

Transfer and adaptation to new unknown environmental dynamics is a key challenge for reinforcement learning (RL). An even greater challenge is performing near-optimally in a single attempt at test time, possibly without access to dense rewards, which is not addressed by current methods that require multiple experience rollouts for adaptation. To achieve single episode transfer in a family of environments with related dynamics, we propose a general algorithm that optimizes a probe and an inference model to rapidly estimate underlying latent variables of test dynamics, which are then immediately used as input to a universal control policy. This modular approach enables integration of state-of-the-art algorithms for variational inference or RL. Moreover, our approach does not require access to rewards at test time, allowing it to perform in settings where existing adaptive approaches cannot. In diverse experimental domains with a single episode test constraint, we report our method significantly outperforms existing adaptive approaches and shows favorable performance against baselines for robust transfer.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1984

Magnetic field orientations in Saturn's upper ionosphere inferred from Voyager radio occultations

The radio scintillations observed during occultations of Voyagers 1 and 2 by Saturn are analyzed to determine the morphology of plasma irregularities and hence the magnetic field orientation in Saturn's upper atmosphere. The measurement techniques, the weak scattering theory, and the method used to relate the observed radio scintillations to physical properties of the ionospheric irregularities are briefly described. Results on the spatial characteristics of the irregularities are presented, and the magnetic field orientation in Saturn's ionosphere is inferred. Although the occultation measurements generally confirm the accuracy of the Saturnian magnetic field model of Connerney et al. (1982), it is found that a small adjustment of the coefficients in that model's zonal harmonic expansion would remove the discrepancy between the model predictions and the measurements. A strategy for obtaining improved measurements of Saturn's magnetic field from radio occultation observations of scintillations and Faraday rotation using an orbiting spacecraft is briefly discussed.

Hinson, D. P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗

NASA NTRS2013

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Models for Binary Molecular Classification using VUV Absorption Spectra

Machine learning methods were combined with differential absorption spectroscopy measurements in the vacuum-ultraviolet region (5.167 – 9.920 eV) in order to develop predictive capabilities for inferring molecular structure from the spectra. Several types of species were analyzed and, for modeling purposes, were defined using a single classification: (1) alkane, (2) conjugation with oxygen (e.g. diacetyl, ethyl vinyl ether), (3) non-conjugated alkene (e.g. 1-butene, 1,4-cyclohexadiene), (4) oxygen-containing (e.g. 1-butanol, tetrahydrofuran), or (5) cyclic (e.g. cyclopentane, cyclohexanone). The latter molecular classification excluded cyclic ethers. Several modeling methods were employed in the analysis of 102 absorption spectra, 24 of which were measured for the first time. The primary objective was to identify suitable methods that enable accurate predictions of molecular structure classifications with minimized statistical uncertainties. Rather than identifying a single, unifying method to reliably predict molecular structure contributions to VUV absorption spectra, coordination is required among a particular method, the type of molecular structure detail (e.g. conjugation), and absorption region of interest. The latter is accomplished using a binning approach, wherein absorption regions of ~0.5 eV were utilized rather than the entire ~4.8 eV range. Photon energy binning enabled analysis of region-specific predictions of accuracy, precision, and recall. The outcome from the binning approach is that, rather than utilizing the entire spectrum, optimal determination of molecular structure using machine learning methods depends on the absorption region. Furthermore, the present work provides separate machine learning models for each molecular classification, which enables the identification of multi-functional species relevant to atmospheric chemistry and combustion chemistry, where isomer-resolved speciation is critical to understanding complex reaction networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Human reliability analysis studies from simulator experiments using Bayesian inference

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of complex facilities is performed to arrive at the risk posed by them. PSA also accounts for the contribution of the human errors towards the overall risk through Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in terms of Human Error Probability (HEP). Human operators are part of the system and do not work in isolation. Their performance is influenced by the context in which the actions are performed. As a result, quantification of HEP requires operator performance data under the given context. Some good sources of operator performance data are plant‘s operation data, simulator data and expert judgement. The plant operation data pertaining to HRA is generally sparse. In this situation, a full scope plant simulator provides a good alternative for operator performance data generation. Many of the currently practiced HRA methods have been developed by combining the empirical evidence with expert judgement and contain a lot of uncertainty in their estimates. Bayesian inference is suitable for updating the prior HRA estimates with the simulator evidence to obtain the posterior HEP. Here, posterior HEP has been calculated for postulated accident scenarios in advanced reactor (first of its kind) at design stage, using plant simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗