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DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic partition of unity networks for high–dimensional regression problems

We explore the probabilistic partition of unity network (PPOU-Net) model in the context of high-dimensional regression problems and propose a general framework focusing on adaptive dimensionality reduction. With the proposed framework, the target function is approximated by a mixture of experts model on a low-dimensional manifold, where each cluster is associated with a fixed-degree polynomial. We present a training strategy that leverages the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. During the training, we alternate between (i) applying gradient descent to update the DNN coefficients; and (ii) using closed-form formulae derived from the EM algorithm to update the mixture of experts model parameters. Under the probabilistic formulation, step (ii) admits the form of embarrassingly paralleliazable weighted least-squares solves. The PPOU-Nets consistently outperform the baseline fully-connected neural networks of comparable sizes in numerical experiments of various data dimensions. Here, we also explore the proposed model in applications of quantum computing, where the PPOU-Nets act as surrogate models for cost landscapes associated with variational quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Behavior of Na and RbF-Treated CdS/Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 Solar Cells with Stress Testing under Heat, Light, and Junction Bias

In this work, the effects of Na and RbF alkali treatment on the metastability behavior of CdS/Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 solar cells are investigated with stress factors of heat, junction bias, and illumination. Four device types with and without Na or RbF treatments are subjected to heat- and light-soaking under open- and short-circuit (OC, SC) junction bias. Low-Na devices show a higher bandgap due to increased minimum Ga content, higher recombination current, and lower open-circuit voltage (V OC ). Devices with RbF post-deposition treatment (PDT) show an improvement in net doping density ≈10 16 cm –3 , V OC , and efficiency. Heat- and light-soaking under OC junction bias provokes an increase in net carrier concentration and V OC irrespective of the alkali treatments. After SC stress, a decrease in V OC and net carrier concentration is observed, which can be stabilized by RbF-PDT. An increase in Na and oxygen concentration in CIGS is observed for baseline and low-Na devices, respectively, after OC stress. The oxygen concentration in CdS decreases after heat- and light-soaking for devices without RbF-PDT, whereas it remains unchanged for devices with RbF-PDT. The atomic concentration profiles in CIGS significantly stabilize as a function of stress with the addition of RbF-PDT.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

No–till establishment improves the climate benefit of bioenergy crops on marginal grasslands

Expanding biofuel production is expected to accelerate the conversion of unmanaged marginal lands to meet biomass feedstock needs. Greenhouse gas production during conversion jeopardizes the ensuing climate benefits, but most research to date has focused only on conversion to annual crops and only following tillage. Here we report the global warming impact of converting USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands to three types of bioenergy crops using no–till (NT) vs. conventional tillage (CT). We established replicated NT and CT plots in three CRP fields planted to continuous corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie. For the 2 yr following an initial soybean year in all fields, we found that, on average, NT conversion reduced nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions by 50% and CO 2 emissions by 20% compared with CT conversion. Differences were higher in Year 1 than in Year 2 in the continuous corn field, and in the two perennial systems the differences disappeared after Year 1. In all fields net CO 2 emissions (as measured by eddy covariance) were positive for the first 2 yr following CT establishment, but following NT establishment net CO 2 emissions were close to zero or negative, indicating net C sequestration. Overall, NT improved the global warming impact of biofuel crop establishment following CRP conversion by over 20–fold compared with CT (–6.01 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 for NT vs. –0.25 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 for CT, on average). We also found that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates of N 2 O emissions (as measured by static chambers) greatly underestimated actual emissions for converted fields regardless of tillage. Policies should encourage adoption of NT for converting marginal grasslands to perennial bioenergy crops to reduce C debt and maximize climate benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Topological Order with Matrix Product Operators

One of the most striking features of gapped quantum phases that exhibit topological order is the presence of long-range entanglement that cannot be detected by any local order parameter. The formalism of projected entangled-pair states is a natural framework for the parameterization of gapped ground state wavefunctions which allows one to characterize topological order in terms of the virtual symmetries of the local tensors that encode the wavefunction. In their most general form, these symmetries are represented by matrix product operators acting on the virtual level, which leads to a set of algebraic rules characterizing states with topological quantum order. This construction generalizes the concepts of $\mathsf G$- and twisted injectivity; the corresponding matrix product operators encode all topological features of the theory and provide a complete picture of the ground state manifold on the torus. We show how the string-net models of Levin and Wen fit within this formalism and in doing so provide a particularly intuitive interpretation of the pentagon equation for F-symbols as the pulling of matrix product operators through the string-net tensor network. Our approach paves the way to finding novel topological phases beyond string nets and elucidates the description of topological phases in terms of entanglement Hamiltonians and edge theories.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Budget Impact Model for Paclitaxel-eluting Stent in Femoropopliteal Disease in France

The Zilver PTX drug-eluting stent (Cook Ireland Ltd., Limerick, Ireland) represents an advance in endovascular treatments for atherosclerotic superficial femoral artery (SFA) disease. Clinical data demonstrate improved clinical outcomes compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). This analysis assessed the likely impact on the French public health care budget of introducing reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent. A model was developed in Microsoft Excel to estimate the impact of a progressive transition from BMS to Zilver PTX over a 5-year horizon. The number of patients undergoing SFA stenting was estimated on the basis of hospital episode data. The analysis from the payer perspective used French reimbursement tariffs. Target lesion revascularization (TLR) after primary stent placement was the primary outcome. TLR rates were based on 2-year data from the Zilver PTX single-arm study (6 and 9 %) and BMS rates reported in the literature (average 16 and 22 %) and extrapolated to 5 years. Net budget impact was expressed as the difference in total costs (primary stenting and reinterventions) for a scenario where BMS is progressively replaced by Zilver PTX compared to a scenario of BMS only. The model estimated a net cumulative 5-year budget reduction of Euro-Sign 6,807,202 for a projected population of 82,316 patients (21,361 receiving Zilver PTX). Base case results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses. Adoption of Zilver PTX could lead to important savings for the French public health care payer. Despite higher initial reimbursement for the Zilver PTX stent, fewer expected SFA reinterventions after the primary stenting procedure result in net savings.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Decadal carbon decomposition dynamics in three peatlands in Northern Minnesota

The uppermost portion of the peat profile, an area of active diagenetic processes, is exceedingly important for understanding peatland dynamics and the diagenesis and geochemistry of atmospherically-deposited materials. In this study, we investigated high resolution carbon (C) accrual and peat decomposition rates at two Sphagnum-rich ombrotrophic bogs and one fen in northern Minnesota, USA by analyzing 1 cm increments from 30 cm thick intact frozen blocks of peat soil. We conducted radiocarbon analysis of Sphagnum cellulose to determine peat age and net C accumulation at each depth interval. Calibrated peat ages were determined using CALIBomb and a compilation of calibration datasets for the pre-bomb period. We fit data with a negative exponential accumulation model and used model-derived parameters to estimate net primary productivity (NPP) and a peat decomposition rate constant k. FTIR spectroscopy and C:N were used to derive humification indices and to chemically characterize the peat. NPP ranged from 180 to 266 g C m -2 year -1 , k ranged from 0.015 to 0.019 year -1 . Net C accumulation rates ranged from 112 to 174 g C m -2 year -1 at 25 years and 70 to 113 g C m -2 year-1 at 50 years. Mass loss was up to 55% during the first 50 years of peat accumulation. Decomposition is greater at depth in the bogs—where 25 cm of peat correspond to 55 years of peat accumulation—than in the fen, where peat age is approximately 25 years at 25 cm depth. Lastly, information on fine-scale variations in peat mass decomposition and loss across ombrotrophic bogs and a fen help interpret other diagenetic processes in peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polywell Revisited

The Polywell fusion concept, originally proposed by Robert W. Bussard in 1985, has been investigated for over four decades as a potential solution for achieving net fusion energy in a compact and economically viable reactor. It combines two distinct approaches: high-beta magnetic cusp confinement of electrons using polyhedral coil configurations and electrostatic ion confinement via a potential well formed by injected electron beams. While the hybrid nature of the Polywell system offers advantages in plasma stability and engineering simplicity, previous efforts have been limited by persistent challenges in achieving sufficient plasma confinement required to generate a net energy gain. Here, in this study, we examine previous works and identify limitations of several Polywell embodiments that have historically impeded progress. We present an updated Polywell physics model incorporating experimental findings and recent first-principles particle-in-cell simulations. This updated model outlines a credible path toward overcoming confinement losses and achieving net energy gain using deuterium-tritium (D-T) fuels. Our findings provide a renewed scientific basis for the continued development of the Polywell fusion concept as a practical and scalable approach to fusion energy.

Electrostatic potential well↗

DOE OSTI2017

Effective Electrostatic Interactions Between Two Overall Neutral Surfaces with Quenched Charge Heterogeneity Over Atomic Length Scale

Using Monte Carlo results as a reference, a classical density functional theory (CDFT) is shown to reliably predict the forces between two heterogeneously charged surfaces immersed in an electrolyte solution, whereas the Poisson–Boltzmann (PB) theory is demonstrated to deteriorate obviously for the same system even if the system parameters considered fall within the validity range of the PB theory in the homogeneously charged surfaces. By applying the tested CDFT, we study the effective electrostatic potential of mean force (EPMF) between two face–face planar and hard surfaces of zero net charge on which positive and negative charges are separated and considered to present as discontinuous spots on the inside edges of the two surfaces. Main conclusions are summarized as follows: (i) strength of the EPMF in the surface charge separation case is very sensitively and positively correlated with the surface charge separation level and valency of the salt ion. Particularly, the charge separation level and the salt ion valency have a synergistic effect, which makes high limit of the EPMF strength in the surface charge separation case significantly go beyond that of the ideal homogeneously charged surface counterpart at average surface charge density similar to the average surface positive or negative charge density in the charge separation case. (ii) The surface charge distribution patterns mainly influence sign of the EPMF: symmetrical and asymmetrical patterns induce repulsive and attractive (at small distances) EPMF, respectively; but with low valency salt ions and low charge separation level the opposite may be the case. With simultaneous presence of both higher valency cation and anion, the EPMF can be repulsive at intermediate distances for asymmetrical patterns. (iii) Salt ion size has a significant impact, which makes the EPMF tend to become more and more repulsive with the ion diameter regardless of the surface charge distribution patterns and the valency of the salt ion; whereas if the 1:1 type electrolyte and the symmetrical patterns are considered, then the opposite may be the case. All of these findings can be explained self-consistently from several perspectives: an excess adsorption of the salt ions (induced by the surface charge separation) serving to raise the osmotic pressure between the plates, configuration fine-tuning in the thinner ion adsorption layer driven by the energy decrease principle, direct Coulombic interactions operating between charged objects on the two face-to-face plates involved, and net charge strength in the ion adsorption layer responsible for the net electrostatic repulsion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Erbium gain effects on Stokes signal performance in a Fabry–Perot Brillouin Erbium fiber laser

The effect of the Erbium gain on the Stokes signal performance is experimentally presented in this paper. Linear Brilllouin Erbium fiber laser cavity is tested under different 1480 nm pump power ranges (0–125 mW). Different Brillouin pump (Bp) power values of 2, 4 and 6 dBm are used in this study. Stokes signal net gain and threshold power are recorded at all generated Stokes signals for these Bp powers values. 2 dBm Bp power shows higher net gain, low threshold, large Stokes numbers and low required 1480 nm pump power compared to 4 and 6 dBm. Up to 8.3 dB net gain, threshold of − 10.3 dBm, 24 Stokes signals and with a maximum 1480 nm pump power of 92.2 mW are recorded for 2 dBm Bp power. Stokes signal threshold is recorded at the near end of the single mode fiber at which Nth order Stokes is generated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2012

Simulation of Urban Climate with High-Resolution WRF Model: A Case Study in Nanjing, China

In this study, urban climate in Nanjing of eastern China is simulated using 1-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model. Based on the 10-summer simulation results from 2000 to 2009 we find that the WRF model is capable of capturing the high-resolution features of urban climate over Nanjing area. Although WRF underestimates the total precipitation amount, the model performs well in simulating the surface air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation frequency, diurnal cycle and inter-annual variability. We find that extremely hot events occur most frequently in urban area, with daily maximum (minimum) temperature exceeding 36ºC (28ºC) in around 40% (32%) of days. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect at surface is more evident during nighttime than daytime, with 20% of cases the UHI intensity above 2.5ºC at night. However, The UHI affects the vertical structure of Planet Boundary Layer (PBL) more deeply during daytime than nighttime. Net gain for latent heat and net radiation is larger over urban than rural surface during daytime. Correspondingly, net loss of sensible heat and ground heat are larger over urban surface resulting from warmer urban skin. Because of different diurnal characteristics of urban-rural differences in the latent heat, ground heat and other energy fluxes, the near surface UHI intensity exhibits a very complex diurnal feature. UHI effect is stronger in days with less cloud or lower wind speed. Model results reveal a larger precipitation frequency over urban area, mainly contributed by the light rain events (<10 mm day-1). Consistent with satellite dataset, around 10-20% more precipitation occurs in urban than rural area at afternoon induced by more unstable urban PBL, which induces a strong vertical atmospheric mixing and upward moisture transport. A significant enhancement of precipitation is found in the downwind region of urban in our simulations in the afternoon.

Precipitation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Warming but not elevated CO 2 depletes soil organic carbon in a temperate rice paddy

In this article, global climate change has the potential to alter soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in rice paddies, because increases in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) both influence the primary input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) and output (i.e. heterotrophic respiration) of carbon (C). We used two types of open-top chambers representing present conditions (+0°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) and projected climate change conditions (+2°C, +200 ppm CO 2 ) to investigate the net effect of climate change on SOC stock in rice paddy. Additional chambers with elevated temperature only (+2°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) allowed us to quantify the individual effects of temperature and [CO 2 ]. We calculated changes in SOC stock using net ecosystem C balance (NECB) analysis (i.e., the balance between C inputs and outputs). Compared to present conditions, projected climate change did not change grain yield due to a trade-off between the effects of warming and [CO 2 ] on grain yield components. NPP during the fallow season significantly decreased under combined warming and CO 2 , as the impact of warming outweighed that of elevated [CO 2 ]. However, rice NPP remained unchanged during the cropping season. Warming plus elevated CO 2 increased SOC mineralization by 157–429 %, particularly through warming-induced soil CO 2 emission during the fallow season. Consequently, climate change conditions decreased (119–271 %) NECB values compared to present conditions, primarily through the response to warming. Our findings demonstrate that rice paddies represent positive feedback on climate change, because accelerated C release from warmed soils will override C gains from NPP under elevated CO 2 . Reducing SOC depletion in rice paddy agriculture under a changing climate therefore requires conservative soil management practices during the fallow season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting carbon dynamics in grazed and flood-prone grasslands on mineral and degraded peat soils

Ecosystem-scale methane (CH₄) flux measurements from grazed grasslands remain scarce, despite their importance for understanding grassland contributions to the global carbon budget. In this study, we present full annual budgets of both carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄ derived from eddy covariance measurements at two contrasting grazed grasslands: a floodplain grassland at Marchegg, Austria, and an intensively grazed pasture at Sherman Barn, California. By combining continuous, year-round observations of CO₂ and CH₄, this study provides a rare, comparative assessment of greenhouse gas dynamics across distinct climatic, hydrological, and management regimes. Our results highlight how environmental conditions, grazing intensity, and hydrology jointly regulate CO₂ exchange and CH₄ emissions, underscoring the importance of including methane alongside net ecosystem exchange when evaluating grassland carbon balances. At Marchegg, characterized by seasonal flooding and moderate horse grazing on mineral soils, the ecosystem acted as a weak carbon sink in 2024, with a GWP 100 of 42.2 ± 113.4 g CO₂ eq m⁻². Net CO₂ uptake (–27.3 ± 30.2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) was partly offset by CH₄ emissions (1.6 ± 0.04 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹), which were strongly linked to soil moisture and inundation events. In contrast, Sherman Barn, a cattle pasture on degraded peat soils, was a consistent carbon source in 2019, with a GWP 100 of 567.6 ± 120.5 g CO₂ eq m⁻², associated with high ecosystem respiration during summer. The site released 125.3 ± 32.2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ of CO₂ and 3 ± 0.06 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ of CH₄. Across both sites, net ecosystem exchange was primarily linked to photosynthetically active radiation and vegetation greenness, while CH₄ fluxes were related to soil moisture rather than grazing intensity. Flooding at Marchegg reduced CO₂ uptake but enhanced CH₄ emissions, highlighting the critical role of flood timing within the growing season. Moreover, inundation appeared to suppress the spread of invasive plant species, emphasizing the ecological value of dynamic hydrological regimes. Together, these findings reveal the complexity of grassland carbon budgets and the need for site-specific, year-round CO₂ and CH₄ monitoring to inform climate-adaptive management strategies.

Carbon sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2019

On the surface energy balance closure at different temporal scales

Measurements of the surface energy fluxes (turbulent and radiative) and other ancillary atmospheric/soil parameters made in the Columbia River Basin (Oregon) in an area of complex terrain during a 10-month long portion of the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2) field campaign are used to study the surface energy budget (SEB) and surface fluxes over different temporal scales. This study analyzes and discusses SEB closure based on half-hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal, and sub-annual (~10-month) temporal averages. The data were collected over all four seasons for different states of the underlying ground surface (dry, wet, and frozen). Our half-hourly direct measurements of energy balance show that the sum of the turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes systematically underestimate positive net radiation by around 20–30% during daytime and overestimate negative net radiation at night. This imbalance of the surface energy budget is comparable to other terrestrial sites. However, on average, the residual energy imbalance is significantly reduced at daily, weekly, and monthly averaging timescales, and moreover, the SEB can be closed for this site within reasonable limits on seasonal and sub-annual timescales (311-day averaging for the entire field campaign dataset). Increasing the averaging time to daily and longer time intervals substantially reduces the ground heat flux and storage terms, because energy locally entering the soil, air column, and vegetation in the morning is released in the afternoon and evening. Averaging on daily to sub-annual timescales also reduces random instrumental measurement errors and other uncertainties as well as smooths out a hysteresis effect (phase lag) in the SEB relationship between different components. This study shows that SEB closure is better for dry soils compared to wet soils and the statistical dependence of the turbulent fluxes and net radiation for freezing soil surfaces appears weak, if not non-existent, apparently due to lack of the latent heat of fusion term in the traditional SEB equation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

On refractive processes in strong laser field quantum electrodynamics

Refractive processes in strong-field QED are pure quantum processes, which involve only external photons and the background electromagnetic field. We show analytically that such processes occurring in a plane-wave field and involving external real photons are all characterized by a surprisingly modest net exchange of energy and momentum with the laser field, corresponding to a few laser photons, even in the limit of ultra-relativistic laser intensities. We obtain this result by a direct calculation of the transition matrix element of an arbitrary refractive QED process and accounting exactly for the background plane-wave field. A simple physical explanation of this modest net exchange of laser photons is provided, based on the fact that the laser field couples with the external photons only indirectly through virtual electron–positron pairs. For stronger and stronger laser fields, the pairs cover a shorter and shorter distance before they annihilate again, such that the laser can transfer to them an energy corresponding to only a few photons. These results can be relevant for the future experiments aiming to test strong-field QED at present and next-generation facilities. -- Highlights: •Investigation of the one-loop amplitude of refractive QED processes in a laser field. •The amplitude is suppressed for a large number of net-exchanged laser photons. •Suggestion for first observation of high-nonlinear vacuum effects in a laser field.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of crop production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.

Biofuels↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-economic prospects for producing Fischer-Tropsch jet fuel and electricity from lignite and woody biomass with CO 2 capture for EOR

This work explores the prospective techno-economic performance of facilities that produce low- and net-negative-carbon liquid transportation fuels and electricity with CO 2 capture for enhanced oil recovery. The lignite and biomass-to-jet fuel process is based on KBR’s TRIG gasifier, Rectisol (for sulfur removal and CO 2 capture), fixed-bed low temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthesis of liquid fuels, and Brayton/Rankine combined cycles to convert synthesis/refining off-gases and waste heat to electricity. This work leverages a recent, highly-detailed assessment of a prospective first-of-a-kind (FOAK) demonstration facility to develop highly detailed Aspen Plus process simulations for nine prospective N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) plant equipment configurations. Component-level capital costs from the FOAK study are scaled and adjusted to reflective prospective learning-by-doing to estimate capital costs for the NOAK designs. NOAK plant economic performance is found to be largely insensitive to variations in plant configurations and electricity output fraction, but biomass input fraction significantly affects profitability. Facilities that consume only carbon–neutral biomass, with no lignite co-feed, have significantly net-negative carbon emissions and the most favorable prospective economics when carbon emissions are priced. For these facilities, the crude oil price required for plant economic viability falls rapidly from $\$$100/bbl as carbon emission prices increase above $\$$120/tonne CO 2eq . In general, plants that co-fire lignite with biomass are less profitable (than 100% biomass plants) due to their higher net greenhouse gas emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗