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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

A Parametric Study of Erupting Flux Rope Rotation: Modeling the 'Cartwheel CME' on 9 April 2008

The rotation of erupting filaments in the solar corona is addressed through a parametric simulation study of unstable, rotating flux ropes in bipolar force-free initial equilibrium. The Lorentz force due to the external shear-field component and the relaxation of tension in the twisted field are the major contributors to the rotation in this model, while reconnection with the ambient field is of minor importance, due to the field's simple structure. In the low-beta corona, the rotation is not guided by the changing orientation of the vertical field component's polarity inversion line with height. The model yields strong initial rotations which saturate in the corona and differ qualitatively from the profile of rotation vs. height obtained in a recent simulation of an eruption without preexisting flux rope. Both major mechanisms writhe the flux rope axis, converting part of the initial twist helicity, and produce rotation profiles which, to a large part, are very similar within a range of shear-twist combinations. A difference lies in the tendency of twist-driven rotation to saturate at lower heights than shear-driven rotation. For parameters characteristic of the source regions of erupting filaments and coronal mass ejections, the shear field is found to be the dominant origin of rotations in the corona and to be required if the rotation reaches angles of order 90 degrees and higher; it dominates even if the twist exceeds the threshold of the helical kink instability. The contributions by shear and twist to the total rotation can be disentangled in the analysis of observations if the rotation and rise profiles are simultaneously compared with model calculations. The resulting twist estimate allows one to judge whether the helical kink instability occurred. This is demonstrated for the erupting prominence in the "Cartwheel CME" on 9 April 2008, which has shown a rotation of approximately 115 deg. up to a height of 1.5 Solar R above the photosphere. Out of a range of initial equilibria which include strongly kink-unstable (Phi = 5 pi), weakly kink-unstable (Phi = 3.5 pi), and kink-stable (Phi = 2.5 pi) configurations, only the evolution of the weakly kink-unstable flux rope matches the observations in their entirety.

initiation and propagation↗
NASA NTRS2014

AG Channel Measurement and Modeling Results for Over-Sea Conditions

This report describes results from flight tests conducted in an over-sea environment, for the purpose of characterizing the air-to-ground (AG) channel, for future unmanned aircraft system (UAS) communication system analysis and design. These results are for the first of a set of several flight tests conducted in different ground site (GS) environments. An ultimate aim of all these tests is the development of models for the AG channel that can be used in communication system evaluation. In this report we provide measured results for propagation path loss, root-mean square delay spread (RMS-DS), and the correlation coefficient of the primary received signal components on the four antennas (two antennas for C-band, two for L-band). For path loss, the curved-earth two-ray model provides a reasonable fit to the measured data, altered by several dB at the shortest link distances by aircraft antenna pattern effects. This two-ray model also accounts for the majority of measured RMS-DS results of a few tens of nanoseconds, except for the occasional intermittent reflections from surface objects. These intermittent reflections yield RMS-DS values up to several hundred nanoseconds. For portions of the flight path that were over a harbor area highly populated with boats, the channel was found to be more "continuously dispersive," with RMS-DS reaching approximately 250 ns. A separate model will be developed for this over-harbor setting. The correlation coefficient results are still undergoing analysis; preliminary observations are that correlation between signals on the same-band antennas is generally large (>0.6) for the C-band straight flight paths, whereas for the L-band signals and for the oval-shaped flight paths the correlation is generally small (below 0.4). Inter-band correlations are typically very small, and are well modeled as zero-mean Gaussian in distribution, with a standard deviation less than 0.2. Hence the over-sea channel effects in the two bands can be considered uncorrelated, which will allow for good diversity gains in dual-band systems. We describe initial modeling approaches for the over-sea channel; complete models for this and the over-harbor setting will appear in a subsequent report.

Aircraft Communications↗
NASA NTRS2013

Hybrid-PIC Modeling of a High-Voltage, High-Specific-Impulse Hall Thruster

The primary life-limiting mechanism of Hall thrusters is the sputter erosion of the discharge channel walls by high-energy propellant ions. Because of the difficulty involved in characterizing this erosion experimentally, many past efforts have focused on numerical modeling to predict erosion rates and thruster lifespan, but those analyses were limited to Hall thrusters operating in the 200-400V discharge voltage range. Thrusters operating at higher discharge voltages (V(sub d) >= 500 V) present an erosion environment that may differ greatly from that of the lower-voltage thrusters modeled in the past. In this work, HPHall, a well-established hybrid-PIC code, is used to simulate NASA's High-Voltage Hall Accelerator (HiVHAc) at discharge voltages of 300, 400, and 500V as a first step towards modeling the discharge channel erosion. It is found that the model accurately predicts the thruster performance at all operating conditions to within 6%. The model predicts a normalized plasma potential profile that is consistent between all three operating points, with the acceleration zone appearing in the same approximate location. The expected trend of increasing electron temperature with increasing discharge voltage is observed. An analysis of the discharge current oscillations shows that the model predicts oscillations that are much greater in amplitude than those measured experimentally at all operating points, suggesting that the differences in oscillation amplitude are not strongly associated with discharge voltage.

Hall Thrusters↗
NASA NTRS2015

Medication Use by U.S. Crewmembers on the International Space Station

This study examined medication use during long-duration. Medication records from 24 crewmembers on 20 missions (greater than 30 days duration) were examined for trends in usage rates, efficacy, indication, as well as adverse event qualities, frequencies and severities. No controls were possible in this observational, retrospective analysis of available data; comparisons are made to similar studies of individuals on shortduration spaceflights and submarine deployments. The most frequently used medications were for sleep problems, pain, congestion or allergy. Medication use during spaceflight missions was similar to what is seen in adult ambulatory medicine; one notable exception is that usage of sleep aids was about 10 times higher in spaceflight. There were also two apparent treatment failures in cases of skin rash, raising questions about the efficacy or suitability of the treatments used. Many spaceflight-related medication uses were linked to extravehicular-activities and operationally-driven schedule changes. The data suggest that sleep and skin rash merit additional study prior to longer space exploration missions. It also seems likely that alterations in schedule-shifting or extravehicular activity suits would reduce the need for many medication uses, preserving resources as well as improving crew quality of life.

Wotring, V. E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

VHF Radio Response of the near Earth Space During Solar Activity Growth in October, 2003

The analysis of observations of very high frequency radio noise intensity at the middle latitude on a frequency f = 500 MHz from 14th till 26th of October, 2003 is presented. These data are compared with the solar radio bursts in the range of frequencies 1-14 MHz registered by RAD2 receiver of the WAVES device installed on board the WIND spacecraft. The sporadic enhancement of near Earth very high frequency radio noise were observed with the help of ground radio telescope preferably either in pre mid night hours or at daytime. In many cases between October 17 and 22 short-term increases of the fluxes of low energy electrons, protons and ions in the interplanetary space by hundreds of times, corresponded to VHF radio bursts. At the same time slow increasing of solar cosmic rays streams at Lagrange point L1 and on geostationary orbit during October, 21 and 22, did not affect the usual radio noise level. A strong solar flare of 1B/X5.5 class on October 23 contributed to a prolonged rise of the intensity level of spectral radio emission, including the night sector of magnetosphere. It is assumed that very high frequency radio bursts in the near Earth space may appear when the processes of penetration of interplanetary low energy charge particles into Earth plasmasphere take place.

Dudnik, O. V.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Practical Applications of Cosmic Ray Science: Spacecraft, Aircraft, Ground-Based Computation and Control Systems, Exploration, and Human Health and Safety

In this presentation a review of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects on microelectronic systems and human health and safety is given. The methods used to evaluate and mitigate unwanted cosmic ray effects in ground-based, atmospheric flight, and space flight environments are also reviewed. However not all GCR effects are undesirable. We will also briefly review how observation and analysis of GCR interactions with planetary atmospheres and surfaces and reveal important compositional and geophysical data on earth and elsewhere. About 1000 GCR particles enter every square meter of Earth’s upper atmosphere every second, roughly the same number striking every square meter of the International Space Station (ISS) and every other low- Earth orbit spacecraft. GCR particles are high energy ionized atomic nuclei (90% protons, 9% alpha particles, 1% heavier nuclei) traveling very close to the speed of light. The GCR particle flux is even higher in interplanetary space because the geomagnetic field provides some limited magnetic shielding. Collisions of GCR particles with atomic nuclei in planetary atmospheres and/or regolith as well as spacecraft materials produce nuclear reactions and energetic/highly penetrating secondary particle showers. Three twentieth century technology developments have driven an ongoing evolution of basic cosmic ray science into a set of practical engineering tools needed to design, test, and verify the safety and reliability of modern complex technological systems and assess effects on human health and safety effects. The key technology developments are: 1) high altitude commercial and military aircraft; 2) manned and unmanned spacecraft; and 3) increasingly complex and sensitive solid state micro-electronics systems. Space and geophysical exploration needs drove the development of the instruments and analytical tools needed to recover compositional and structural data from GCR induced nuclear reactions and secondary particle showers. Finally, the possible role of GCR secondary particle showers in addressing an important homeland security problem, finding nuclear contraband and weapons, will be briefly reviewed.

Koontz, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2012

CARVE: The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a NASA Earth Ventures (EV-1) investigation designed to quantify correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems through intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. CARVE's objectives are to: (1) Directly test hypotheses attributing the mobilization of vulnerable Arctic carbon reservoirs to climate warming; (2) Deliver the first direct measurements and detailed maps of CO2 and CH4 sources on regional scales in the Alaskan Arctic; and (3) Demonstrate new remote sensing and modeling capabilities to quantify feedbacks between carbon fluxes and carbon cycle-climate processes in the Arctic (Figure 1). We describe the investigation design and results from 2011 test flights in Alaska.

Arctic Carbon Cycle↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evolution of H2O, CO, and CO2 Production in Comet C/2009 P1 Garradd During the 2011-2012 Apparition

We present analysis of high spectral resolution NIR spectra of CO and H2O in Comet C/2009 P1 (Garradd) taken during its 2011-2012 apparition with the CSHELL instrument on NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). We also present analysis of observations of atomic oxygen in Comet Garradd obtained with the ARCES echelle spectrometer mounted on the ARC 3.5-m telescope at Apache Point Observatory and the Tull Coude spectrograph on the Harlan J. Smith 2.7-m telescope at McDonald Observatory. The observations of atomic oxygen serve as a proxy for H2O and CO2. We confirm the high CO abundance in Comet Garradd and the asymmetry in the CO/H2O ratio with respect to perihelion reported by previous studies. From the oxygen observations, we infer that the CO2/H2O ratio decreased as the comet moved towards the Sun, which is expected based on current sublimation models. We also infer that the CO2/H2O ratio was higher pre-perihelion than post-perihelion. We observe evidence for the icy grain source of H2O reported by several studies pre-perihelion, and argue that this source is significantly less abundant post-perihelion. Since H2O, CO2, and CO are the primary ices in comets, they drive the activity. We use our measurements of these important volatiles in an attempt to explain the evolution of Garradd's activity over the apparition.

Comets↗
NASA NTRS2015

Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 C over the subtropics and 3-5 C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional downscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2015

Geology of Pluto and Charon Overview

Pluto's surface was found to be remarkably diverse in terms of its range of landforms, terrain ages, and inferred geological processes. There is a latitudinal zonation of albedo. The conspicuous bright albedo heart-shaped feature informally named Tombaugh Regio is comprised of several terrain types. Most striking is Texas-sized Sputnik Planum, which is apparently level, has no observable craters, and is divided by polygons and ovoids bounded by shallow troughs. Small smooth hills are seen in some of the polygon-bounding troughs. These hills could either be extruded or exposed by erosion. Sputnik Planum polygon/ovoid formation hypotheses range from convection to contraction, but convection is currently favored. There is evidence of flow of plains material around obstacles. Mountains, especially those seen south of Sputnik Planum, exhibit too much relief to be made of CH4, CO, or N2, and thus are probably composed of H2O-ice basement material. The north contact of Sputnik Planum abuts a scarp, above which is heavily modified cratered terrain. Pluto's large moon Charon is generally heavily to moderately cratered. There is a mysterious structure in the arctic. Charon's surface is crossed by an extensive system of rift faults and graben. Some regions are smoother and less cratered, reminiscent of lunar maria. On such a plain are large isolated block mountains surrounded by moats. At this conference we will present highlights of the latest observations and analysis. This work was supported by NASA's New Horizons project

Sputnik Planum↗
NASA NTRS2015

[Fall 2015 Abstract by Stephanie Scharf]

This Fall I worked on two different projects that culminated into a redesign of the spacesuit LLB (long life battery). I also did some work on the PLSS (personal life support system) battery with EC. My first project was redlining the work instruction for completing DPAs (destructive physical analysis) on battery cells in the Branch. The purpose of this document is to create a standard process and ensure that the data is collected in the same way, no matter who carries out the analysis. I observed three DPAs, conducted one with help, and conducted two on my own, all while taking notes on the procedure. These notes were used to write the final work instruction, which will become the Branch standard. My second project continued the work of the Summer co-op before me. I tested aluminum heat sinks for their ability to provide good thermal conduction and structural support during a thermal runaway event. The heat sinks had been designed by the previous Summer co-op, but there was not much time for testing before he left. We thus ran tests with a heater on the bottom of a trigger cell to try to drive thermal runaway and ensure that it will not propagate to adjacent cells. We also ran heat-to-vent tests in an oven to see if the assembly provided structural support and prevented sidewall rupture during thermal runaway. These tests were carried out at ESTA (Energy Systems Test Area) and are providing very promising results, indicating that safe, high performing (>180 Wh/kg) designs are possible. My main project was a redesign of the LLB (Lightweight Lithium Battery). Another summer intern had done some testing and concluded that there was no simple fix to mitigate thermal runaway propagation hazards in the existing design. The only option was a clean sheet redesign of the battery. I was given a volume and ideal energy density, and the rest of the design was up to me. First, I created new heat sink banks in CREO, using the information gathered in the metal heat sink tests from the summer intern. After this, I made capture plates to hold the cells in place, and I worked on nickel bussings for the electrical connections between the cells. Finally, I designed the test box enclosure that included sections for flame arresting materials. The battery brick design, which is the heart of the battery, promises to become the first for a manned spacecraft application to achieve > 180 Wh/kg. My work in redlining the DPA work instructions will also be used in selecting the cells for the battery. We had a few options for cells that would provide the necessary power output and needed to make a choice. We repeatedly charged and discharged cells for around a month until they went through 100 lifecycles. The plan was to compare the DPA results on fresh and cycled cells from each manufacturer to see if cycling introduces any differences. After the complete LLB design was approved, the parts were ordered and testing should begin the first week of December. Cutting open a cell for DPA After photo from oven heat-to-vent test

Scharf, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS2015

Visualization of Thin Liquid Crystal Bubbles in Microgravity

The Observation and Analysis of Smectic Islands in Space (OASIS) experiment exploits the unique characteristics of freely suspended liquid crystals in a microgravity environment to advance the understanding of fluid state physics.

microgravity↗
NASA NTRS2015

[Redesign of the Spacesuit Long Life Battery and the Personal Life Support System Battery]

This fall I was working on two different projects that culminated into a redesign of the spacesuit LLB (long life battery). I also did some work on the PLSS (personal life support system) battery with EC. My first project was redlining the work instruction for completing DPAs (destructive physical analysis) on battery cells in the department. The purpose of this document is to create a standard process and ensure that the data in the same way no matter who carries out the analysis. I observed three DPAs, conducted one with help, and conducted two on my own all while taking notes on the procedure. These notes were used to write the final work instruction that will become is the department standard. My second project continued the work of the summer co-op before me. I was testing aluminum heat sinks for their ability to provide good thermal conduction and structural support during a thermal runaway event. The heat sinks were designed by the summer intern but there was not much time for testing before he left. We ran tests with a heater on the bottom of a trigger cell to try to drive thermal runaway and ensure that it will not propagate to adjacent cells. We also ran heat-to-vent tests in an oven to see if the assembly provided structural support and prevented sidewall rupture during thermal runaway. These tests were carried out at ESTA (energy systems test area) and are providing very promising results that safe, high performing (greater than 180 Wh/kg) designs are possible. My main project was a redesign of the LLB battery. Another summer intern did some testing and concluded that there was no simple fix to mitigate thermal runaway propagation hazards in the current design. The only option was a clean sheet redesign of the battery. I was given a volume and ideal energy density and the rest of the design was up to me. First, I created new heat sink banks in Creo using the information gathered in the metal heat sink tests from the summer intern. After this, I made capture plates to hold the cells in place and I worked on nickel bussings for the electrical connections between the cells. Finally, I designed the test box enclosure that included sections for flame arresting materials. The battery brick design, which is the heart of the battery, promises to become the first for a manned spacecraft application to achieve greater than 180 Wh/kg. My work in redlining the DPA work instructions will also be used in selecting the cells for the battery. We had a few options of cells that would provide the necessary power output and needed to make a choice. We repeatedly charged and discharged cells for around a month until they went through 100 lifecycles. The plan is to compare the DPA results on fresh and cycled cells from each manufacturer to see if cycling introduces any differences. After the complete LLB design was approved, the parts were ordered and testing should begin the first week of December. Some of my side projects included working on the CAD data for the PLSS with EC and attending the NASA Aerospace Battery Workshop in Huntsville. I was also a member of the Tours and Lectures Committee for the USRA and Pathways interns. I coordinated Apollo Evening and was on the committee for touring KSC and seeing an Atlas 5 launch. I really enjoyed my time at JSC and I would like to continue working for NASA or another aerospace company in the future. I have worked other internships prior to this, but I think the heavy research and development focus is the best fit for me. I originally thought I would need to go to grad school to work in an environment like this, but I now see it is possible with a bachelor’s degree and hard work. I would like to go into the workforce and maybe continue my education with night classes.

Scharf, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS2016

Coronal Polarization of Pseudostreamers and the Solar Polar Field Reversal

The reversal of the solar polar magnetic field is notoriously hard to pin down due to the extreme viewing angle of the pole. In Cycle 24, the southern polar field reversal can be pinpointed with high accuracy due to a large-scale pseudostreamer that formed over the pole and persisted for approximately a year. We tracked the size and shape of this structure with multiple observations and analysis techniques including PROBA2/SWAP EUV images, AIA EUV images, CoMP polarization data, and 3D tomographic reconstructions. We find that the heliospheric field reversed polarity in February 2014, whereas in the photosphere, the last vestiges of the previous polar field polarity remained until March 2015. We present here the evolution of the structure and describe its identification in the Fe XII 1074nm coronal emission line, sensitive to the Hanle effect in the corona.

magnetic field↗
NASA NTRS2015

The CO2 Abundance in Comets C2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P Jager as Measured with Spitzer

Carbon dioxide is one of the most abundant ices present in comets and is therefore important for understanding cometary composition and activity. We present analysis of observations of CO2 and [O I] emission in three comets to measure the CO2 abundance and evaluate the possibility of employing observations of [O I] emission in comets as a proxy for CO2. We obtained NIR imaging sensitive to CO2 of comets C/2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C/2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P/Jager with the IRAC instrument on Spitzer. We acquired observations of [O I] emission in these comets with the ARCES echelle spectrometer mounted on the 3.5-m telescope at Apache Point Observatory and observations of OH with the Swift observatory (PanSTARRS) and with Keck HIRES (Jager). The CO2/H2O ratios derived from the Spitzer images are 12.6 +/- 1.3% (PanSTARRS), 28.9 +/- 3.6% (LINEAR), and 31.3 +/- 4.2% (Jager). These abundances are derived under the assumption that contamination from CO emission is negligible. The CO2 abundance for PanSTARRS is close to the average abundance measured in comets at similar heliocentric distance to date, while the abundances measured for LINEAR and Jager are significantly larger than the average abundance. From the coma morphology observed in PanSTARRS and the assumed gas expansion velocity, we derive a rotation period for the nucleus of about 9.2 h. Comparison of H2O production rates derived from ARCES and Swift data, as well as other observations, suggest the possibility of sublimation from icy grains in the inner coma. We evaluate the possibility that the [O I] emission can be employed as a proxy for CO2 by comparing CO2/H2O ratios inferred from the [O I] lines to those measured directly by Spitzer. We find that for PanSTARRS we can reproduce the observed CO2 abundance to an accuracy of approximately 20%. For LINEAR and Jager, we were only able to obtain upper limits on the CO2 abundance inferred from the [O I] lines. These upper limits are consistent with the CO2 abundances measured by Spitzer.

McKay, Adam J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Future Nuisance Flooding at Boston Caused by Astronomical Tides Alone

Sea level rise necessarily triggers more occurrences of minor, or nuisance, flooding events along coastlines, a fact well documented in recent studies. At some locations nuisance flooding can be brought about merely by high spring tides, independent of storms, winds, or other atmospheric conditions. Analysis of observed water levels at Boston indicates that tidal flooding began to occur there in 2011 and will become more frequent in subsequent years. A compilation of all predicted nuisance-flooding events, induced by astronomical tides alone, is presented through year 2050. The accuracy of the tide prediction is improved when several unusual properties of Gulf of Maine tides, including secular changes, are properly accounted for. Future mean sea-level rise at Boston cannot be predicted with comparable confidence, so two very different climate scenarios are adopted; both predict a large increase in the frequency and the magnitude of tidal flooding events.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

Owens, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2017

Dynamical Conditions of Ice Supersaturation and Ice Nucleation in Convective Systems: A Comparative Analysis Between in Situ Aircraft Observations and WRF Simulations

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) greater than 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double-moment microphysical schemes at temperatures less than or or equal to -40degdegC. All four schemes capture both clear-sky and in-cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear-sky (in-cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by approximately 3-4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds (greater than 1 m s(exp -1) than those at the lower updraft speeds when ice water content (IWC) greater than 0.01 gm(exp -3), while observations show smaller differences up to approximately 1-2 orders of magnitude. The simulated ISS also occurs less frequently at weaker updrafts and downdrafts than observed. These results indicate that the simulations have a greater dependence on stronger updrafts to maintain/generate ISS at higher IWC. At lower IWC (less than or equal or 0.01 gm(exp -3), simulations unexpectedly show lower ISS frequencies at stronger updrafts. Overall, the Thompson aerosol-aware scheme has the closest magnitudes and frequencies of ISS greater than 20% to the observations, and the modified Morrison has the closest correlations between ISS frequencies and vertical velocity at higher IWC and number density. The Cooper parameterization often generates excessive ice crystals and therefore suppresses the frequency and magnitude of ISS, indicating that it should be initiated at higher ISS (e.g.,lees than or equal to 25%).

D’Alessandro, John J.↗