Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “patterns in complex systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating high resolution drone imagery and forest inventory to distinguish canopy and understory trees and quantify their contributions to forest structure and dynamics

Tree growth and survival differ strongly between canopy trees (those directly exposed to overhead light), and understory trees. However, the structural complexity of many tropical forests makes it difficult to determine canopy positions. The integration of remote sensing and ground-based data enables this determination and measurements of how canopy and understory trees differ in structure and dynamics. Here we analyzed 2 cm resolution RGB imagery collected by a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), also known as drone, together with two decades of bi-annual tree censuses for 2 ha of old growth forest in the Central Amazon. We delineated all crowns visible in the imagery and linked each crown to a tagged stem through field work. Canopy trees constituted 40% of the 1244 inventoried trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) > 10 cm, and accounted for ~70% of aboveground carbon stocks and wood productivity. The probability of being in the canopy increased logistically with tree diameter, passing through 50% at 23.5 cm DBH. Diameter growth was on average twice as large in canopy trees as in understory trees. Growth rates were unrelated to diameter in canopy trees and positively related to diameter in understory trees, consistent with the idea that light availability increases with diameter in the understory but not the canopy. The whole stand size distribution was best fit by a Weibull distribution, whereas the separate size distributions of understory trees or canopy trees > 25 cm DBH were equally well fit by exponential and Weibull distributions, consistent with mechanistic forest models. The identification and field mapping of crowns seen in a high resolution orthomosaic revealed new patterns in the structure and dynamics of trees of canopy vs. understory at this site, demonstrating the value of traditional tree censuses with drone remote sensing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Sonic Boom Prediction and Minimization of the Douglas Reference OPT5 Configuration

Conventional CFD methods and grids do not yield adequate resolution of the complex shock flow pattern generated by a real aircraft geometry. As a result, a unique grid topology and supersonic flow solver was developed at Northrop Grumman based on the characteristic behavior of supersonic wave patterns emanating from the aircraft. Using this approach, it was possible to compute flow fields with adequate resolution several body lengths below the aircraft. In this region, three-dimensional effects are diminished and conventional two-dimensional modified linear theory (MLT) can be applied to estimate ground pressure signatures or sonic booms. To accommodate real aircraft geometries and alleviate the burdensome grid generation task, an implicit marching multi-block, multi-grid finite-volume Euler code was developed as the basis for the sonic boom prediction methodology. The Thomas two-dimensional extrapolation method is built into the Euler code so that ground signatures can be obtained quickly and efficiently with minimum computational effort suitable to the aircraft design environment. The loudness levels of these signatures can then be determined using a NASA generated noise code. Since the Euler code is a three-dimensional flow field solver, the complete circumferential region below the aircraft is computed. The extrapolation of all this field data from a cylinder of constant radius leads to the definition of the entire boom corridor occurring directly below and off to the side of the aircraft's flight path yielding an estimate for the entire noise "annoyance" corridor in miles as well as its magnitude. An automated multidisciplinary sonic boom design optimization software system was developed during the latter part of HSR Phase 1. Using this system, it was found that sonic boom signatures could be reduced through optimization of a variety of geometric aircraft parameters. This system uses a gradient based nonlinear optimizer as the driver in conjunction with a computationally efficient Euler CFD solver (NIIM3DSB) for computing the three-dimensional near-field characteristics of the aircraft. The intent of the design system is to identify and optimize geometric design variables that have a beneficial impact on the ground sonic boom. The system uses a simple wave drag data format to specify the aircraft geometry. The geometry is internally enhanced and analytic methods are used to generate marching grids suitable for the multi-block Euler solver. The Thomas extrapolation method is integrated into this system, and hence, the aircraft's centerline ground sonic boom signature is also automatically computed for a specified cruise altitude and yields the parameters necessary to evaluate the design function. The entire design system has been automated since the gradient based optimization software requires many flow analyses in order to obtain the required sensitivity derivatives for each design variable in order to converge on an optimal solution. Hence, once the problem is defined which includes defining the objective function and geometric and aerodynamic constraints, the system will automatically regenerate the perturbed geometry, the necessary grids, the Euler solution, and finally the ground sonic boom signature at the request of the optimizer.

Siclari, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

3-D Reconstruction of Macular Type II Cell Innervation Patterns in Space-Flight and Control Rats

A semiautomated method for reconstructing objects from serial thin sections has been developed in the Biocomputation Center. The method is being used to completely, for the first time, type II hair cells and their innervations. The purposes are to learn more about the fundamental circuitry of the macula on Earth and to determine whether changes in connectivities occur under space flight conditions. Data captured directly from a transmission electron microscope via a video camera are sent to a graphics workstation. There, the digitized micrographs are mosaicked into sections and contours are traced, registered and displayed by semiautomated methods. Current reconstructions are of type II cells from the medial part of rat maculas collected in-flight on the Space Life Sciences-2 mission, 4.5 hrs post-flight, and from a ground control. Results show that typical type II cells receive processes from tip to six nearby calyces or afferents. Nearly all processes are elongated and have bouton-like enlargements; some have numerous vesicles. Multiple (2 to 4) processes from a single calyx to a type II cell are common, and approximately 1/3 of the processes innervale 2 or 3 type II cells or a neighboring cluster. From 2% to 6% of the cells resemble type I cells morphologically but have demi-calyces. Thus far, increments in synaptic number in type II cells of flight rats are prominent along processes that supply two hair cells. It is clear that reconstruction methods provide insights into details of macular circuitry not obtainable by other techniques. The results demonstrate a morphological basis for interactions between adjacent receptive fields through feed back-feed forward connections, and for dynamic alterations in receptive field range and activity during preprocessing of linear acceleratory information by the maculas. The reconstruction method we have developed will find further applications in the study of the details of neuronal architecture of more complex systems, to seek out shared organizational properties or neuronal networks and to understand better localization of synaptic changes in altered environments.

Ross, Muriel Dorothy↗
DOE OSTI2021

DeepGRN: prediction of transcription factor binding site across cell-types using attention-based deep neural networks

Abstract Background Due to the complexity of the biological systems, the prediction of the potential DNA binding sites for transcription factors remains a difficult problem in computational biology. Genomic DNA sequences and experimental results from parallel sequencing provide available information about the affinity and accessibility of genome and are commonly used features in binding sites prediction. The attention mechanism in deep learning has shown its capability to learn long-range dependencies from sequential data, such as sentences and voices. Until now, no study has applied this approach in binding site inference from massively parallel sequencing data. The successful applications of attention mechanism in similar input contexts motivate us to build and test new methods that can accurately determine the binding sites of transcription factors. Results In this study, we propose a novel tool (named DeepGRN) for transcription factors binding site prediction based on the combination of two components: single attention module and pairwise attention module. The performance of our methods is evaluated on the ENCODE-DREAM in vivo Transcription Factor Binding Site Prediction Challenge datasets. The results show that DeepGRN achieves higher unified scores in 6 of 13 targets than any of the top four methods in the DREAM challenge. We also demonstrate that the attention weights learned by the model are correlated with potential informative inputs, such as DNase-Seq coverage and motifs, which provide possible explanations for the predictive improvements in DeepGRN. Conclusions DeepGRN can automatically and effectively predict transcription factor binding sites from DNA sequences and DNase-Seq coverage. Furthermore, the visualization techniques we developed for the attention modules help to interpret how critical patterns from different types of input features are recognized by our model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2020

Investigation of Magmatic Activities on Early Mars Using Igneous Mineral Chemistry in Gale Crater, Mars

One objective of rover missions is exploring the geological context of the surroundings. Over the years, igneous petrology and sedimentology have been disconnected, the first investigating magmatic processes and volcanic activities, and the second seeking environmental conditions in the past and assessing the habitability of the planet. Although different, one is related to the other: igneous rocks are altered and broken down, leading to the formation of sedimentary rocks, which can in turn be used to back out the nature of their magmatic source. The Curiosity rover that landed in the 3.7 Gyr old impact crater Gale is traveling through sedimentary rocks. About fifty float rocks have been observed, and several of them with ambiguous texture and composition have been classified as igneous or sedimentary depending on studies such as Jake_M. The composition of several unambiguous igneous rocks has been analyzed [4- 6] but their heterogeneity at a larger instrumental (measurement size < 2 cm) scale prevents the measurement of a bulk composition as performed on Earth. An original approach avoiding these two last issues is to consider igneous mineral chemistry analyzed within igneous and sedimentary rocks to assess magmatic processes that could have formed them. Most Curiosity data are used to explore ancient environmental conditions, and a significant number of compositional analyses are under-explored for constraining magmatic activities. We will present how we can make use of sedimentary data for investigating igneous processes in the vicinity of Gale crater. Geological Context: We focus on the first 750 martian days, corresponding to measurements in a coherent lacustrine sedimentary unit called Bradbury, because all sedimentary rocks were sourced from the same watershed and appear to have a consistent source with minimal alteration [2-3]. Igneous detrital minerals including feldspar and pyroxene, are observed in sedimentary rocks. Monte Carlo models showed that minimal cation loss is observed based on the composition of all Bradbury rocks, implying negligible weathering [3]. Although clay minerals are detected in few rocks [7], chemical compositions of rocks can be explained by a mixture of primary igneous minerals [3]. Variation of composition within Bradbury rocks can be explained by mineral sorting and one distinct source component. While a common magmatic source is suggested, Bradbury sediments likely come from several volcanic eruptions from a single magmatic chamber [9- 10]. The occurrence of alkali minerals like sanidine and K-rich rocks throughout Bradbury supports the presence of a potassic component, likely trachytic, while plagioclase and a mafic composition suggest a basaltic component [8-9]. Instruments: Mineral chemistry can be estimated by three instruments onboard Curiosity. The CheMin instrument enables detection of mineral assemblages using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Using Rietveld refinement, each mineral is identified according to their 1D XRD pattern [11]. Note that distinction between pyroxene minerals is challenging with the CheMin instrument due to overlapping peaks on XRD patterns and low angular resolution of the instrument [12]. Then, using least square regression and optimization algorithms based on unit-cell parameters, mineral chemistry has been estimated by [11]. Plagioclase composition has been estimated using the NaAlSi3O8- CaAl2Si2O8 system and alkali feldspar is based on the NaAlSi3O8-KAlSi3O8 system (stars in Fig.1). Two mudstone samples (John Klein and Cumberland) and one sandstone sample (Windjana) were analyzed by CheMin at Yellowknife Bay and Kimberley, respectively. Figure 1. Ternary diagrams of feldspars (top) and pyroxene (bottom) quadrilateral. Stars correspond to CheMin composition and the gray patches to ChemCam composition. The colored dots are the composition of feldspar and pyroxene that crystallized during fractional crystallization at FMQ+1 of a melt extracted at distinct melting degree during the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition, without any water (left panels) and with 0.5 wt.% of water (right panels) at distinct pressure. The ChemCam instrument enables the analysis of the chemical compositions of rocks at hundreds of micrometer scale (350-550 μm) using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), which may provide the composition of minerals when they are larger than the beam spot (>550 μm) [13]. Within >5000 LIBS points, we performed a typical stoichiometric filtering allowing us to distinguish 56 feldspar and 10 pyroxene mineral compositions (grey patches in Fig. 1). Finally, the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) analyzes the composition of rocks with a 1.6 cm diameter spot size. Monte Carlo mass balance modeling allowed [3] to decipher a feldspar range varying between An30 and An40 (Fig. 1). Discussion: Although there could be a more complex history and other ways to form the whole compositional range of igneous minerals analyzed within the Bradbury formation, we are presenting here simple magmatic pathways commonly occurring on Earth using the thermodynamical softwares pMELTS and rhyoliteMELTS [14]. The objective is to find reasonable igneous processes that produce minerals that parallel the compositions of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed by the Curiosity rover. As commonly observed for mid-ocean ridge basalts, the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition [15] partially melting at 2 GPa has been modeled, followed by the extraction of a liquid at distinct degrees of partial melting, which undergoes fractional crystallization at an oxygen fugacity +1 log unit above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer within the crust (0.02-0.4 GPa) with H2O = 0- 0.5 wt. %. These latter conditions correspond to those recorded within igneous clasts from the Noachian martian breccia NWA 7034 and paired and within Gale igneous rocks (colored dots in Fig. 1) [16-17]. To check the reliability of these 2-step models, we also tested fractional crystallization at similar conditions (FMQ+1; P=0.02-0.4 GPa; H2O = 0-0.5 wt. %) of starting compositions corresponding to that of magmas with distinct melting degrees obtained from isobaric experiments at 2 GPa [18]. Mineral compositions obtained from both models are similar. As shown on Fig. 1, the whole range of observed feldspar compositions cannot be reproduced by fractionation of one magma only. Indeed, while alkali feldspar and Na-plagioclase likely crystallized from fractional crystallization of a low-degree melt (here <15%), plagioclase and pyroxene can only be formed by fractional crystallization of a higher degree melt (here >19%). The corresponding liquid descent lines are broadly in agreement with compositions estimated by ChemCam corresponding to float igneous rocks (Fig. 2) [4-6]. Figure 2. Silica versus alkali content. Lines show the liquid lines of descent from magmas with distinct degrees of melting. Gray patches represents the composition of Gale igneous rocks [4-6]. Trachytic to rhyolitic magmas crystallize alkali feldspar, and andesite to dacite magmas likely form plagioclase. Therefore, at least two starting magmas at distinct melting degrees, which could easily come from a single mantle source, are necessary to explain the whole compositional range of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed within Bradbury rocks. Conclusion: Because rocks from the Bradbury formation are likely originating from the same magmatic source with minimal weathering as supported by several studies using different approaches, igneous mineral chemistry analyzed by CheMin and ChemCam allows us to back out reasonable magmatic pathways that could have crystallized them. Fractional crystallization of at least two starting magmas originating from distinct melting degrees of a single mantle source can explain the whole range of feldspar and pyroxene composition. Both alkaline and sub-alkaline liquids can be produced, with compositions corresponding to those of the igneous rocks analyzed by ChemCam within the Bradbury formation, highlighting the complexity of Mars magmatism.

Payre, V.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Nanotube/Quantum Dot-Polymer Solar Cells

Single wall carbon nanotubes used or this study were synthesized using the pulse laser vaporization technique. The as-produced SWNTs were collected from the condensed region on the quartz tube outside the furnace and purified by modification of the previously reported procedure. Preparation of the SWNT-P3OT composite solutions was performed using a series of mixing and sonication steps as previously demonstrated for other SWNT-polymer systems. Device fabrication involved the use of commercially-obtained, high quality (i.e., less than 10 W/sq.) ITO-coated polyethylene terapthalate (PET) substrates. Initially, an intrinsic layer of pristine P3OT is spray deposited (approx. 1-2 mL of the 15 mg/mL solution) onto the masked, 1 sq in. active area of the substrate. This is followed with spray deposition of the SWNT-P3OT composite solutions at similar volumes. As seen completion of the solar cell occurs when aluminum contacts (typical thicknesses of l000A) are applied to the IT0 and SWNT-P3OT composite film layers. The homogeneous distribution of SWNTs in a polymer matrix is dependent upon the ability of the polymer chain to associate with the SWNT superstructure. Stable composite dispersions of 0.1 % and 1.0% w/w SWNTs in P3OT were produced and analyzed in this study. Optical spectroscopy was conducted to observe the SWNT doping level effects on the absorption properties and infer potential electronic interactions between dopant and polymer. Shown is an overlay of these spectra where the pristine P3OT shows strong optical absorption at energies less than 2 eV. As expected, variation in absorption properties for the SWNT-P3OT composites is observed as the doping level increases. Through modification of the SWNT doping level in the polymer, it is possible to alter the absorption pattern of these composite materials. In fact, at these relatively low doping levels, the P3OT shows a significant enhancement in absorption through the near-IR and visible regions. The gray curve for purified SWNTs is offset from the other three for clarity, but indicates the typical complex pattern observed for this spectral range.

Bailey, Sheila G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Anomaly Detection in Neural Network Security and SRF Cavities

This dissertation explores the development and deployment of machine learning approaches to address critical challenges in anomaly detection across two distinct domains: neural network security in federated learning settings and cavity behavior analysis in particle accelerator operations at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. Anomaly detection identifies deviations from expected patterns, safeguarding systems in cybersecurity, industry, and research against malicious activities and failures. This dissertation demonstrates how our machine learning approaches enhance detection accuracy and efficiency in both neural network security and industrial applications. First, we investigate vulnerabilities in deep neural networks deployed in federated learning. Although federated learning preserves user privacy by training models locally, it remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, in which malicious participants embed hidden triggers that induce targeted misbehavior. We propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework to detect and mitigate such backdoor attacks. In our experiments, this method achieves higher detection accuracy and lower false positive rates than existing defenses, while operating without access to local model updates or original training data and thus preserving the privacy guarantees of the federated setting. Second, we address the operational reliability of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). Our research leverages an unsupervised learning approach, combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering, to identify anomalous behaviors in SRF cavities. Our method detects subtle anomalous behavior by analyzing SRF signal data. This knowledge allows for the early detection and resolution of potential faults, significantly improving the efficiency and reliability of operations. Third, we extend these insights to time-series anomaly detection more broadly. We design a contrastive-learning based model tailored to increasingly dynamic environments and academic research. This model improves detection accuracy in settings that require real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance. Our research underscores the broader applicability and impact of advanced machine learning techniques in anomaly detection. By extracting meaningful patterns from complex data, machine learning can significantly enhance security in distributed neural networks and improve the efficiency of particle accelerator operations. This dissertation serves as a stepping stone for future investigations into the vast possibilities of anomaly detection, inspiring further exploration and development of machine learning techniques in this field.

Ferguson, Hal [Old Dominion University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Closed-Loop Control of Active Nematic Flows

Stabilizing and shaping autonomous flows of active fluids is a fundamental challenge and a prerequisite for applications. We embed a light-responsive microtubule-based nematic in a proportional-integral control loop that adjusts the applied light intensity in response to real-time measurements of the spatially averaged flow speed. The self-regulating hardware-software-wetware system maintains a target flow speed against external or internal perturbations, including protein aging and aggregation, sample-to-sample variability, and temperature variation. Varying the controller’s gains reveals antagonistic roles between feedback and intrinsic processes, leading to nontrivial dynamics observed in fluctuation spectra. In particular, oscillations emerge from the interplay between the controller, motor binding kinetics, and active hydrodynamic relaxation. Accounting for the underlying binding timescale, our coarse-grained model and nematohydrodynamics simulations corroborate these observations. This work provides insight into the coupled dynamics of controlled active matter, laying the foundation for spatiotemporal patterning of active stress to generate and stabilize new dynamical configurations.

Active nematics↗
NASA NTRS1997

Reduced Navier Stokes Relaxation Procedures for Internal Flows

In spite of significant advancement in the field of high speed computing, flow calculations involving complex geometries and/or flow behavior still require large amounts of CPU time and memory. In order to predict such flows without sacrificing grid convergence and accuracy, adaptive gridding techniques that provide optimal resolution are highly desirable. The present work combines multigrid techniques and domain decomposition concepts to provide local, solution adaptive, grid refinement. Several viscous compressible and incompressible, two and three-dimensional, flows with strong inviscid interaction and/or axial flow reversal, are considered with a segmented multigrid domain decomposition (SMGDD) procedure for which uniform meshes result in each domain. A pressure-based form of flux-vector splitting is applied to the Navier-Stokes equations, which are represented by an implicit lowest-order reduced Navier-Stokes (RNS) system and a purely diffusive, higher-order, deferred-corrector. A trapezoidal or box-like form of discretization insures that all mass conservation properties are satisfied at interfacial and outflow boundaries, even for this primitive-variable non-staggered grid computation. The SMGDD technique presented herein has previously been applied for incompressible two dimensional flows. The present work offers improvement in the gridding strategy, by allowing for disjoint subdomains that provide optimal resolution of disparate flow features. It also extends the SMGDD technique to three dimensional compressible flows. Laminar and turbulent flow in a backward facing step channel is considered; although the procedure is applicable to more severe geometries. The standard K-epsilon model is applied for turbulence closure. For Re greater than 400, differences between two-dimensional theory and experiment are resolved through a three dimensional simulation, which confirms the experimentally observed three dimensionality of the recirculation patterns on the upper and lower surfaces.

Rubin, Stanley G.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Erosion and Mobilisation of Highly Active Simulant Suspensions using Impinging Vertical Jets - 19378

Based on the nuclear industry in the U.K., storage of nuclear waste poses a particularly complex challenge. Specifically, this research is concerned with post-PUREX (Plutonium Uranium Redox Extraction) high level waste, known as HAL (Highly Active Liquor), containing nitric acid and a host of fission products. HAL is concentrated, and stored in HASTs (Highly Active Storage Tanks) at the HALES (Highly Active Liquor Evaporation and Storage) facility at the Sellafield site, UK. HASTs are large concrete containers designed to keep the HAL cool and continually circulated prior to vitrification for permanent storage and disposal. Without comprehensive understanding of how this HAL is behaving within the HASTs, a multitude of issues could arise, and understanding such issues is the basis of this research. Components of the HAL begin to form solid particles in the HASTS, and impinging vertical liquid jets are used to mobilize the sedimented particle bed to reduce hot-spot formation. Experimental validation of the jets and associated modelling is required to assess the jets efficacy, and by considering the erosion based on dimensionless parameters, will allow the results to be scaled. This is of particular interest due to the wide reaching applications to all industries that require utilisation of impinging jets, for mass or heat transfer. An experimental rig of 0.5 m{sup 3} has been used to experimentally model the central jet of the HASTs. A spherical glass simulant (SiO{sub 2}, spherical) of various sizes has been used for the initial non-cohesive particle testing, and modelling. Each experiment used 8 different jet diameters. Dimensionless analysis takes the form of the erosion parameter, Ec, which allows comparison of systems of different scales and a means of correlating multiple simulants against one another, so patterns are easily identifiable. Part of the dimensionless analysis was also to deduce the modified Shields parameter from vane viscometry to allow for a comparison of erosion behaviour taking into account particle properties, flow properties and the overall influence these have on the erosion profile. Particle size distribution was found to have a direct effect on yield stress and modified Shields parameter, with larger particles being dominated by inertial forces and past a certain size threshold surface forces appear to dominate. Ec data found the larger glass simulants to behave as expected for a non-cohesive particles, however surface forces also appear to be present for the smaller size distributions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D=2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physics of Life: A Model for Non-Newtonian Properties of Living Systems

This innovation proposes the reconciliation of the evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics via the introduction of the First Principle for modeling behavior of living systems. The structure of the model is quantum-inspired: it acquires the topology of the Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced with the information potential. As a result, the model captures the most fundamental property of life: the progressive evolution; i.e. the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The mathematical structure of the model can be obtained from the Newtonian equations of motion (representing the motor dynamics) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equation (representing the mental dynamics) via information forces. All these specific non-Newtonian properties equip the model with the levels of complexity that matches the complexity of life, and that makes the model applicable for description of behaviors of ecological, social, and economical systems. Rather than addressing the six aspects of life (organization, metabolism, growth, adaptation, response to stimuli, and reproduction), this work focuses only on biosignature ; i.e. the mechanical invariants of life, and in particular, the geometry and kinematics of behavior of living things. Living things obey the First Principles of Newtonian mechanics. One main objective of this model is to extend the First Principles of classical physics to include phenomenological behavior on living systems; to develop a new mathematical formalism within the framework of classical dynamics that would allow one to capture the specific properties of natural or artificial living systems such as formation of the collective mind based upon abstract images of the selves and non-selves; exploitation of this collective mind for communications and predictions of future expected characteristics of evolution; and for making decisions and implementing the corresponding corrections if the expected scenario is different from the originally planned one. This approach postulates that even a primitive living species possesses additional, non-Newtonian properties that are not included in the laws of Newtonian or statistical mechanics. These properties follow from a privileged ability of living systems to possess a self-image (a concept introduced in psychology) and to interact with it. The proposed mathematical system is based on the coupling of the classical dynamical system representing the motor dynamics with the corresponding Liouville equation describing the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of the probability density and representing the mental dynamics. The coupling is implemented by the information-based supervising forces that can be associated with self-awareness. These forces fundamentally change the pattern of the probability evolution, and therefore, lead to a major departure of the behavior of living systems from the patterns of both Newtonian and statistical mechanics. This innovation is meant to capture the signature of life based only on observable behavior, not on any biochemistry. This will not prevent the use of this model for developing artificial living systems, as well as for studying some general properties of behavior of natural, living systems.

Zak, Michail↗
DOE OSTI2019

A BI-LEVEL APPROACH TO FUTURE POWER SYSTEM CO-OPTIMIZATION WITH HIGH PENETRATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND RESPONSIVE DEMAND

Electricity generation accounts for nearly half of the total CO2 emissions in the United States. For this reason, the development and integration of renewable resources will play an essential role in achieving the societal objective of mitigating climate change through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In conjunction with the environmental benefits of renewable energy, the most common renewable sources, such as wind and solar, also increase the uncertainties surrounding generation in power systems, which adds significant challenges to the system operation and planning. The uncertainties and forecasting errors surrounding renewable generation are normally addressed through the use of reserves from traditional generators. At greater levels of renewable penetration, sufficient generator reserves may not be available or economically viable. In contrast, the promise of demand-side resources in this arena lies in the spatially widespread availability, rapid response potential, and lower cost of features that already exist in the system. However, the challenge of responsive demand arises from the need to understand, manage, and incentivize a very large number of resources to participate effectively in efficient operation of the complex power system. Since demand response comes from the distribution system, microgrids as the basic building blocks of future distribution systems will be a critical environment for the study of demand response. To support integration of microgrids with flexible loads in future power systems, the operational mode of power systems will need to evolve. Therefore, it is going to be critical to have new and efficient co-optimization methods for coordination of the various power market participants and the scheduling of resources in the power systems of the future. Motivated by the rapid increase in renewable penetration, the need for effective demand response programs, and a changing system structure, this dissertation seeks to define a new strategy that supports co-optimization of various participants in power systems with emphasis on high renewable penetration and demand response. This strategy has three components; 1) an exploration of the capabilities of different types of demand response programs in a microgrid, 2) development and implementation of a bi-level framework for co-optimization of the main grid with high renewable penetration and a microgrid with demand response capabilities, and 3) expansion of the bi-level framework from a microgrid to a general distribution system to explore the advantages of the bi-level co-optimization approach over the traditional optimization approach. Conclusions of this work illustrate that the stochastic rolling horizon approach could effectively manage the operation of a microgrid with various demand response programs. In addition, the bi-level approach is a promising co-optimization framework for the transmission and distribution levels that could increase system renewable penetration and reduce operation costs. Compared to the traditional framework, the bi-level framework yields more equitable cost sharing patterns among the market participants as well as better support for the power system evolution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Light Material Interactions in Energy Conversion (Final Report)

The scientific vision of the “Light-Material Interactions in Energy Conversion” Energy Frontier Research Center (LMI-EFRC) is embodied in our mission statement: ‘to tailor the morphology, complex dielectric structure, and electronic properties of matter so as to sculpt the flow of sunlight and heat, enabling light conversion to electrical energy with unprecedented efficiency’. Founded in 2009, the LMI-EFRC has become a national resource for fundamental optical principles and phenomena relevant to solar energy conversion, addressing new scientific opportunities that enable efficient utilization of the entire visible and infrared solar resource. The LMI-EFRC is directed by Prof. Ralph Nuzzo and centered at its lead institution, the California Institute of Technology. The Center is an integrated and collaborative partnership of research leaders in photonics and photonic materials, comprising 14 faculty investigators that span six academic departments at five institutions, including Profs. Harry Atwater, Andrei Faraon, Nathan Lewis, and Austin Minnich at Caltech; Profs. Ralph Nuzzo, Paul Braun and John Rogers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Prof. Jennifer Lewis at Harvard University; Profs. Mark Brongersma, Jennifer Dionne, and Shanhui Fan at Stanford University; and Profs. Paul Alivisatos, Eli Yablonovitch, and Xiang Zhang at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The Center is organized into four research groups (RGs) that address scientific themes related to light-matter interactions, with each team spanning multiple institutional partners and designed to meet our scientific objectives. Notable project outcomes that address the LMI Mission and 2014-2018 goals include: (1) RG1 “New Light Management Mechanisms” demonstrated tunable and active nanostructured patterned surfaces (‘metasurfaces’) for control of light absorption, reflection, and propagation. (2) RG2 “Solar Spectrum Control and Conversion” developed colloidal nanocrystals with designer optical properties for fundamental studies of solar spectrum control and conversion. (3) RG3 “Thermal Photon Harvesting” established photonic design principles to harness and control thermal photons in novel conversion systems. (4) RG4 “Programmable Assembly of Photonic and Electronic Architectures” developed powerful new methods for light- and matter-based additive fabrication of electronic and photonic architectures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2010

Low-Friction, Low-Profile, High-Moment Two-Axis Joint

The two-axis joint is a mechanical device that provides two-degrees-of-freedom motion between connected components. A compact, moment-resistant, two-axis joint is used to connect an electromechanical actuator to its driven structural members. Due to the requirements of the overall mechanism, the joint has a low profile to fit within the allowable space, low friction, and high moment-reacting capability. The mechanical arrangement of this joint can withstand high moments when loads are applied. These features allow the joint to be used in tight spaces where a high load capability is required, as well as in applications where penetrating the mounting surface is not an option or where surface mounting is required. The joint consists of one base, one clevis, one cap, two needle bearings, and a circular shim. The base of the joint is the housing (the base and the cap together), and is connected to the grounding structure via fasteners and a bolt pattern. Captive within the housing, between the base and the cap, are the rotating clevis and the needle bearings. The clevis is attached to the mechanical system (linear actuator) via a pin. This pin, and the rotational movement of the clevis with respect to the housing, provides two rotational degrees of freedom. The larger diameter flange of the clevis is sandwiched between a pair of needle bearings, one on each side of the flange. During the assembly of the two-axis joint, the circular shims are used to adjust the amount of preload that is applied to the needle bearings. The above arrangement enables the joint to handle high moments with minimal friction. To achieve the high-moment capability within a low-profile joint, the use of depth of engagement (like that of a conventional rotating shaft) to react moment is replaced with planar engagement parallel to the mounting surface. The needle bearings with the clevis flange provide the surface area to react the clevis loads/moments into the joint housing while providing minimal friction during rotation. The diameter of the flange and the bearings can be increased to react higher loads and still maintain a compact surface mounting capability. This type of joint can be used in a wide variety of mechanisms and mechanical systems. It is especially effective where precise, smooth, continuous motion is required. For example, the joint can be used at the end of a linear actuator that is required to extend and rotate simultaneously. The current design application is for use in a spacecraft docking-system capture mechanism. Other applications might include industrial robotic or assembly line apparatuses, positioning systems, or in the motion-based simulator industry that employs complex, multi-axis manipulators for various types of motions.

Lewis, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

System for Automated Calibration of Vector Modulators

Vector modulators are used to impose baseband modulation on RF signals, but non-ideal behavior limits the overall performance. The non-ideal behavior of the vector modulator is compensated using data collected with the use of an automated test system driven by a LabVIEW program that systematically applies thousands of control-signal values to the device under test and collects RF measurement data. The technology innovation automates several steps in the process. First, an automated test system, using computer controlled digital-to-analog converters (DACs) and a computer-controlled vector network analyzer (VNA) systematically can apply different I and Q signals (which represent the complex number by which the RF signal is multiplied) to the vector modulator under test (VMUT), while measuring the RF performance specifically, gain and phase. The automated test system uses the LabVIEW software to control the test equipment, collect the data, and write it to a file. The input to the Lab - VIEW program is either user-input for systematic variation, or is provided in a file containing specific test values that should be fed to the VMUT. The output file contains both the control signals and the measured data. The second step is to post-process the file to determine the correction functions as needed. The result of the entire process is a tabular representation, which allows translation of a desired I/Q value to the required analog control signals to produce a particular RF behavior. In some applications, corrected performance is needed only for a limited range. If the vector modulator is being used as a phase shifter, there is only a need to correct I and Q values that represent points on a circle, not the entire plane. This innovation has been used to calibrate 2-GHz MMIC (monolithic microwave integrated circuit) vector modulators in the High EIRP Cluster Array project (EIRP is high effective isotropic radiated power). These calibrations were then used to create correction tables to allow the commanding of the phase shift in each of four channels used as a phased array for beam steering of a Ka-band (32-GHz) signal. The system also was the basis of a breadboard electronic beam steering system. In this breadboard, the goal was not to make systematic measurements of the properties of a vector modulator, but to drive the breadboard with a series of test patterns varying in phase and amplitude. This is essentially the same calibration process, but with the difference that the data collection process is oriented toward collecting breadboard performance, rather than the measurement of output from a network analyzer.

Lux, James↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Transmission Electron Microscopy Study of a Refractory Metal Grain from a Calcium-Aluminum-Rich Inclusion in the Leoville CV3 Chondrite

Introduction: Calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) are an important component of chondritic meteorites. They can contain materials that are thermodynamically predicted and isotopically age dated to be among the first-formed solids in our solar system [1-5]. Observed in some CAIs are micron to sub-micron sized inclusions rich in Fe, Ni, and high-Z elements such as Pt, Os, Ir and W, in the form of refractory metal nuggets (RMNs), fremdlinges, and ‘nugget like objects’ (NLOs) [1,6]. Refractory siderophile elements such as Os, Ir and Ru are thermodynamically predicted to condense at temperatures well in excess of the major CAI phases such as melilite, perovskite, spinel and hibonite [2,7-9]. These refractory metal inclusions in CAIs can therefore serve as probes into the thermodynamic landscape of the early solar protoplanetary disk. Here we report on a refractory grain identified in a CAI of the Leoville CV3 chondrite. This work is part of an ongoing effort to gain insight into the thermochemistry of the early solar system through systematic analyses of the structure and chemistry of various components in CAIs [10-13]. Sample and Analytical Techniques: A fluffy type A CAI (Fig. 1A) was identified in a section of the Leoville, CV3 chondrite (Center for Meteorite Studies, Arizona State University collection, #821_C_3) using a JOEL-JXA 8530F electron microprobe at Arizona State University. Backscattered electron (BSE) imaging and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) were used to identify refractory metal grains in the CAI using a Thermo Fisher (formerly FEI) Helios NanoLab 660 G3 focused-ion-beam scanning-electron microscope (FIBSEM) located at the Kuiper Materials Imaging and Characterization Facility (KMICF) at the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona. The FIB is equipped with an EDAX EDS system. We selected one of the larger (micron-sized) refractory metal grains, designated as ‘Spud’ (Fig. 1B) for further analysis. ‘Spud’ was extracted and thinned to electron transparency (<100 nm) using the FIB-SEM located in KMICF, following methods described by [14- 15]. The FIB section was analyzed using a 200 keV Hitachi HF5000 scanning transmission electron microscope (S/TEM) located at KMICF. The HF5000 is equipped with cold-field emission gun, 3rd-order spherical aberration corrector for STEM imaging, and an Oxford Instruments X-Max N 100 TLE energydispersive spectroscopy (EDS) system with dual 100 mm2 windowless silicon-drift detectors (Ω = 2.0 sr). Selected-area electron-diffraction (SAED) patterns were acquired to aid in determination of crystallinity and phase. Results: The mineralogy, texture, and morphology of the CAI are consistent with that of a fluffy type A (FTA) CAI [16]. BSE imaging at high magnifications revealed grains with high contrast, indicative of compositions rich in elements of higher atomic number relative to surrounding material. These high-Z grains have sizes that range from ∼250 nm to 4 µm. EDS analyses confirm that the bright grains are metal-rich inclusions. A minor fraction of the grains are composed of only Fe and Ni, but the majority (∼60%) of the identified inclusions also contained various refractory siderophiles including Os, Ru, Zr, Ir and Mo. EDS analysis on the FIB-SEM of Spud shows that it contains Fe, Ni, Mo and Ru. High-angle annular dark-field (HAAFD) imaging and EDS mapping in the TEM (Fig. 2) show that Spud occurs in melilite (Ca1.9Al1.99Si1.06O7). Spud contains a subhedral to anhedral morphology and is compositionally heterogenous (polyphasic, Fig. 2). Local spatial correlation occurs among Fe, Ni, and Pt, and also among Os, Ru, and Mo. SAED patterns show that the Fe-Ni-Pt, Fe-Os-Mo-Ru and Fe-Pt regions are crystalline. Discussion: CAIs can contain various types of inclusions rich in Fe, Ni and refractory siderophiles such as Os, Ru, W and Pt [1]. RMNs are micron-sized, single phase alloy grains and can contain Os, Ir, Ru and Rh [1,7,17]. NLOs are also micron-sized inclusions, but contain two phases, a refractory metal, and an oxide [6]. Fremdlinge are the largest of such inclusions (tens of microns in size) and are complex aggregates of Fe-Ni alloy, silicates, oxides, and sulfides [1,17]. While the size of Spud matches previous descriptions of RMNs and NLOs, Spud is neither a single-phase alloy like RMNs, nor does it contain one metal phase and one oxide like NLOs. Spud does not match the above described categories of refractory metal inclusions. The presence of refractory siderophiles such as Mo, Os, Ru, and Pt suggests a high-temperature origin. Thermodynamic modelling by [7] indicates condensation temperatures of 1917 K, 1693 K, 1613 K and 1415 K for Os, Mo, Ru and Pt respectively. These models also show that following the initial condensation of a refractory metal, alloying of solutes such as Fe, Ni and W, occurs in levels proportional to their partial pressures in the surrounding gas. Such alloying occurs at temperatures above the condensation temperatures of common CAI phases such as melilite (1529 K), perovskite (1441 K), spinel (197 K) and forsterite (1354 K) [2]. The polyphasic nature of Spud could be the result of such high-temperature alloying, possibly shortly after the condensation of Mo and Ru at 1693 K and 1613 K respectively. That Spud occurs as an inclusion is consistent with it having formed prior to and at temperature above that of its host melilite in this FTA CAI, which is qualitatively consistent with such prior thermodynamic modeling. Further, the polyphasic nature of Spud is similar to refractory grains from a FTA CAI in the Northwest Africa (NWA) 8323, CV3 chondrite [11-13]. These data suggest that such refractory metal grains could have been widespread in the inner and early solar protoplanetary disk and represent some of the earliest formed solids to have condensed. Acknowledgments: Research and instrumentation supported by NASA grants #NNX12AL47G, #NNX15AJ22G and #80NSSC19K0509, and NSF grants #1531243 and #0619599. Fig 2. STEM data on ‘Spud’. HAADF Image (Top) False-color EDS Maps (Bottom) References: [1] MacPherson G. J. (2014) T. of Geochem. Vol I: Met. And Cosmochem. Processes, 139-179. [2] Lodders K. (2003) ApJ, 591, 1220-1247. [3] Ebel D. S. (2006) Met. & the Early S. Sys. II., 253- 277. [4] Amelin Y. (2002) Science, 297, 1678-1683. [5] Connelly J.N. et.al. (2012) Science, 338, 651-655. [6] Schwander D. et al. (2015) GCA, 18, 70-87. [7] Palme H. and Wlotzka F. (1976) EPSL, 33, 45-60. [8] Berg T. et al. (2009) ApJ, 702, 172-176. [9] Liffman K. et al. (2021) Icarus, 221, 89-105. [10] Zega T.J. et al. (2021) PSJ, 2, 115. [11] Ramprasad T. et al. (2020) LPSC LI, Abstract #2472. [12] Ramprasad T. et al. (2021) Microscopy & Microanalysis, S1, 2792-2794. [13] Ramprasad T. et al. (2021) 84th MetSoc, Abstract #6123. [14] Zega T.J. et al. (2007) MAPS, 42, 1373-1386. [15] Ramprasad T. et al. (2022) MAPS, in revision. [16] Grossman L. (1975), GCA, 39, 433-454. [17] El Goresy A. et al. (1978) LPSC IX, Abstract#1100

T. Ramprasad↗