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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Hydropower and PSH Capacity Expansion Modeling (Final Report on HydroWIRES D1 Improvements to Capacity Expansion Modeling)

Hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) have played a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. electricity system for over a century. As variable generation (VG) deployment increases the demand for flexible, dispatchable generation, it is important to use all available methods for understanding how hydropower and PSH interfaces with VG in a future low-carbon grid. Capacity expansion models (CEMs) of electricity systems are often used to study future electricity scenarios, but these tools often have difficulty representing site- and technology-details of hydropower and PSH due to limited spatial, temporal, or process resolution. This report demonstrates a set of model advancements to improve hydropower and PSH representations in CEMs and other models that consider hydropower and PSH's role in electricity systems. Model advancements include new data integration to define closed-loop PSH resource availability and cost, along with site-level parameterizations of existing PSH capacity and energy storage specifications. Shifting energy across seasons for both hydropower and PSH is explored to demonstrate the potential value of long-duration storage. New representations of hydropower upgrades offer opportunities to increase dispatchability, add pumps, or independently add capacity or energy depending on what is most valuable. New model structures and data are demonstrated individually and in combination to observe their impact on model results and provide initial insights into what is most important for analysts, electricity system planners, and hydropower decision-makers to consider when assessing future roles of hydropower. Improving flexibility of existing hydropower assets has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions through complementing VG technologies and/or improve electricity system economics by reducing the need to deploy higher-cost systems. Large-scale energy storage is also shown to provide opportunities for balancing seasonal differences in VG, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Initial analysis with a new closed-loop PSH resource and cost dataset also demonstrate the potential for new PSH deployment to offer new grid flexibility opportunities. Future analysis and modeling of hydropower's role in the U.S. and other electricity systems could include methodological improvements based on those discussed here along with sensitivity analysis to better represent current and future potential hydropower and PSH flexibility. Improvements to geospatial and site-level data can further improve the understanding of how hydropower and PSH can be upgraded and operated in response to future electricity system needs. This work lays the groundwork to use advanced planning models to explore the range of roles hydropower and PSH can play in the grid of the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operando X-ray Nanocharacterization of Polycrystalline Thin Film Modules

Non-destructive measurement techniques, with high spatial resolution, capable of correlating composition and structure with device properties, are few and far between. For the case of polycrystalline and inhomogeneous materials, the added challenge is that large sampling areas are necessary in order to have a statistical representation of the specimen under study. For the study of grain cores and grain boundaries in polycrystalline solar absorbers this is of particular importance since their dissimilar behavior and variability throughout the samples makes it difficult to draw conclusions and ultimately optimize the materials and devices. Our approach to use state-of-the-art x-ray microscopy to study full module stacks under operating conditions is unique. Understanding the effects of elemental and charge migration under full encapsulation and operating conditions will allow CIGS and CdTe manufactures and in particular our partners in this proposal to modify materials, stacks, architectures, and processing steps to minimize the performance losses through time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Small-Scale Variability of Solar Radiation (S2VSR) Field Campaign Report

Clouds introduce significant variability in solar radiation, in particular for shallow cumulus and other convective cloud types. Variability at small spatio-temporal scales (specifically below 1 min and 1 km) is, however, not properly resolved by current satellite observations nor atmospheric models. Additionally, 3D photon transport is commonly neglected in analyses and causes significant deviations in 1D radiative transfer simulations at such small scales. A specific challenge is to account for the point-like nature of traditional surface radiative flux measurements in comparison to spatially averaged quantities such as satellite pixel radiances or fluxes representing model grid boxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate and atmospheric deposition drive the inter-annual variability and long-term trend of dissolved organic carbon flux in the conterminous United States

The lateral flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to inland waters and ultimately to the ocean represents a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. To estimate the DOC flux, we developed an empirical terrestrial-aquatic DOC fluxes model (TAF-DOC). TAF-DOC incorporates various environmental factors (e.g., meteorology, sulfur, and nitrogen deposition) that to-date have not been comprehensively considered or well-represented in existing modeling frameworks. TAF-DOC was applied to estimate spatial-temporal patterns of DOC flux and potential fates across the conterminous United States during the 1985 to 2018 time period. Our results suggest that TAF-DOC successfully characterized spatial-temporal of DOC flux. As expected, the interannual pattern of DOC flux was strongly regulated by precipitation, but the long-term trend was significantly influenced by the rate of atmospheric wet sulfur deposition. From 1985 to 2018, TAF-DOC estimated DOC loading from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems in the conterminous United States to be 33.5 ± 2.2 TgC per year, which was roughly 0.39–0.49% of total soil organic carbon stock estimates. The dominant fate of terrestrially-derived DOC was delivery to the coastal ocean in riverine export (41%), with another 21% buried in sediment and the remaining 12.8 ± 0.4 TgC per year (38%) returned to the atmosphere through outgassing from inland waters. Finally, assuming the quantities of DOC sediment burial and export to the ocean as an annual sink of terrestrially-derived carbon, budget inventories and models that do not account for DOC flux in the conterminous United States will underestimate the net annual carbon sink by as much as 5.5–6.4%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reconstructing High Resolution ESM Data Through a Novel Fast Super Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (FSRCNN)

In this work, we present the first application of a fast super resolution convolutional neural network (FSRCNN) based approach for downscaling earth system model (ESM) simulations. Unlike other SR approaches, FSRCNN uses the same input feature dimensions as the low resolution input. This allows it to have smaller convolution layers, avoiding over-smoothing, and reducing computational costs. We adapt the FSRCNN to improve reconstruction on ESM data, we term the FSRCNN-ESM. We use high-resolution (~0.25°) monthly averaged model output of five surface variables over North America from the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model's control simulation. These high-resolution and corresponding coarsened low-resolution (~1°) pairs of images are used to train the FSRCNN-ESM and evaluate its use as a downscaling approach. We find that FSRCNN-ESM outperforms FSRCNN and other super-resolution methods in reconstructing high resolution images producing finer spatial scale features with better accuracy for surface temperature, surface radiative fluxes, and precipitation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging generative adversarial networks to create realistic scanning transmission electron microscopy images

Abstract The rise of automation and machine learning (ML) in electron microscopy has the potential to revolutionize materials research through autonomous data collection and processing. A significant challenge lies in developing ML models that rapidly generalize to large data sets under varying experimental conditions. We address this by employing a cycle generative adversarial network (CycleGAN) with a reciprocal space discriminator, which augments simulated data with realistic spatial frequency information. This allows the CycleGAN to generate images nearly indistinguishable from real data and provide labels for ML applications. We showcase our approach by training a fully convolutional network (FCN) to identify single atom defects in a 4.5 million atom data set, collected using automated acquisition in an aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM). Our method produces adaptable FCNs that can adjust to dynamically changing experimental variables with minimal intervention, marking a crucial step towards fully autonomous harnessing of microscopy big data.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical signature characterization with hyperspectral imagery: novel deep learning model architectures and physically-motivated data augmentation techniques

The high spectral resolution afforded by Hyperspectral Imaging (HSI) sensors is poised to bring unprecedented advancements to signature characterization applications. Thus far, much of the research in the machine learning field devoted to HSI applications has focused on a few specific tasks like land-use land-cover classification. In land classification tasks, spatial information is very important, and model architectures are often designed to leverage spatial contexts. However, it is unclear how well these spatially-tuned models will translate to tasks where spectral information is critical, like the detection and characterization of chemicals. In this work, we compare spectral models (inputs are 1D spectra) and spatial-spectral models (inputs are 3D cubes) in the context of predicting chemical concentration maps. We find that spatial-spectral models perform the best, though we find a wide range in performance across the different architectures tested. Additionally, we find that model performance is impacted by the availability of training data, particularly in scenarios where the training data doesn't fully capture the true variance of real-world conditions. We find that data augmentation can help mitigate sparse coverage of observed parameter space (e.g., seasonal or geographic variability in ground cover), and present augmentation strategies that are tailored to hyperspectral data.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Applied Metrology for the Assembly of the Nb3Sn MQXFA Quadrupole Magnets for the HL-LHC AUP

The US HL-LHC Accelerator Upgrade Project (AUP) is building Nb3Sn quadrupole magnets, called MQXFA, with plans to install 16 of them in the HL-LHC Interaction Regions. Variability in coil size must be dealt with at the assembly level, which requires timely and repeatable measurement of each coil. In this paper we will present the methodology used for coil measurements and the geometrical size data for the coils that have been measured thus far. We will also show the coil measurements of 8 coils before and after cold test. The Leica AT960-MR laser tracker with Spatial Analyzer software acquired to achieve these measurements has been used elsewhere in the project to great effect.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Non-Gaussian photonic state engineering with the quantum frequency processor

Non-Gaussian quantum states of light are critical resources for optical quantum information processing, but methods to generate them efficiently remain challenging to implement. Here we introduce a generic approach for non-Gaussian state production from input states populating discrete frequency bins. Based on controllable unitary operations with a quantum frequency processor, followed by photon-number-resolved detection of ancilla modes, our method combines recent developments in both frequency-based quantum information and non-Gaussian state preparation. Leveraging and refining the K-function representation of quantum states in the coherent basis, we develop a theoretical model amenable to numerical optimization and, as specific examples, design quantum frequency processor circuits for the production of Schrödinger cat states, exploring the performance tradeoffs for several combinations of ancilla modes and circuit depth. Our scheme provides a valuable framework for producing complex quantum states in frequency bins, paving the way for single-spatial-mode, fiber-optic-compatible non-Gaussian resources.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wave resource characterization at regional and nearshore scales for the U.S. Alaska coast based on a 32-year high-resolution hindcast

A wave resource characterization was performed for the southern coast of Alaska based on a 32-year hindcast covering the period from 1979 to 2010. The characterization closely followed International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Technical Specifications. An unstructured-grid Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, which had an approximate spatial resolution of 300 m within 30 km from the nearest shoreline, was developed. Additionally, extensive model validation and error characterization was performed. The model was found to perform well with an average absolute percent error of 8.6% in significant wave height, averaged over 18 buoys. Statistics for the six IEC wave resource parameters were calculated and aggregated at 20 km from shore to quantify the incident wave power and its variability at a regional scale. The southern coast of the Aleutian Archipelago was found to have the most available wave energy in the region. A nearshore resource assessment was performed by evaluating resource hotspots located 1 km from shore. More than 900 nearshore stations had an Optimum Hotspot Identifier value of 5 (kW/m) at diverse water depths, thereby positioning Alaska as a promising location for wave energy development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Variable‐Resolution CESM Over China and Western United States for Use in Water‐Energy Nexus and Impacts Modeling

Abstract Climate models are critical tools to study earth system processes and are often further downscaled to provide refined‐resolution data sets for regional water‐energy impact analyses. In this study, the Variable‐Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM), a new dynamical downscaling method, is employed to generate 1/8° simulations for China and the western United States over 1970–2006. Precipitation, temperature, snowpack, radiation, and wind speed are compared with two 1° global climate models, regional climate model ensemble, and reference data sets to evaluate their fidelity. Simulated precipitation skill is dependent upon the reference data sets used, a slight (<+10%) and spatially consistent wet bias in China during summer and the western United States during winter. Precipitation bias in VR‐CESM is the smallest among models and demonstrates the added value provided by resolution refinement. However, temperature biases are generally greater than precipitation due to more complicated interactions among processes. VR‐CESM simulates +2°C warm bias in the low‐elevation regions in China but −2°C cold bias in mountains. However, DJF cold bias (−2.23°C to−3.37°C) and JJA warm bias (+1.13°C to +1.87°C) exist in the western United States. The modeling skills of precipitation and temperature at various topographies are similar in the two evaluated regions. The cold bias was likely affected by downward shortwave radiation deficit (−15%) and slow bias of surface wind speeds (−16% to −29%). Despite the wet and cold bias, snow water equivalent and snow cover are underestimated in mountains. We conclude that VR‐CESM outperforms other models evaluated and provides the best estimation of downscaled climate model data for water‐energy studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atomic-scale quantum sensing based on the ultrafast coherence of an H 2 molecule in an STM cavity

A scanning tunneling microscope (STM) combined with a pump-probe femtosecond terahertz (THz) laser can enable coherence measurements of single molecules. We report THz pump-probe measurements that demonstrate quantum sensing based on a hydrogen (H 2 ) molecule in the cavity created with an STM tip near a surface. Atomic-scale spatial and femtosecond temporal resolutions were obtained from this quantum coherence. The H 2 acts as a two-level system, with its coherent superposition exhibiting extreme sensitivity to the applied electric field and the underlying atomic composition of the copper nitride (Cu 2 N) monolayer islands grown on a Cu(100) surface. We acquired time-resolved images of THz rectification of H 2 over Cu 2 N islands for variable pump-probe delay times to visualize the heterogeneity of the chemical environment at sub-angstrom scale.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

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