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DOE OSTI2015

Geomechanical and Fluid Transport Properties

Complex changes to fluid and mechanical properties of a pyrolyzing formation could lead to significant subsidence. Capturing subsidence requires accounting for changes in porosity due to generation and drainage of fluid. Pores, permeability and pore pressure are generated during pyrolysis of kerogen into oil and gas. In a series reaction scheme, oil is an intermediate product of pyrolysis. A large portion of oil-range fluids may be lost in an in-situ operation if the oil produced cannot be drained quickly enough. Petroleum fluid quality and production are highly dependent on the relative rates of creation, destruction, and transport of oil and gas in a given volume. All of these are dependent on the heating rate of oil shale. If oil shale is heated quickly, fluid flow may increase, but at a cost to the amount of oil that is finally extracted. To account for the effect of pore fluid on mechanical deformation, an elastic model was combined with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and Biot’s linear consolidation model. The overall model is poroelastic, because it accounts for rock deforming by considering the response of the bulk system and the pore fluids it contains. Biot’s linear model includes all ways that pore fluid volume can change in a system, including stress-strain interactions between pores and the bulk material. Additionally, the model captures the distinction between fluid and solid matrix compression and describes how bulk deformation is affected by fluid drainage. The fluid response to changing stress is affected by changes in pore pressure, while the bulk material responds to effective stress changes. To capture all of these effects, a number of theoretical and empirical models were employed in FLAC3D™, a rock-mechanics software package produced by Itasca Consulting Group. The basic capabilities of FLAC3D™ have been supplemented by customized algorithms for the simulation package. The most important contribution has been to develop a methodology for describing poro-thermo-mechanical properties of oil shale across the complete chronology of in situ pyrolysis. This report highlights those methods and results for inferring realistic oil shale properties.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Role of Defects in Swelling and Creep of Irradiated SiC

Silicon carbide is a promising cladding material because of its high strength and relatively good corrosion resistance. However, SiC is brittle and therefore SiC-based components need to be carefully designed to avoid cracking and failure by fracture. In design of SiC-based composites for nuclear reactor applications it is essential to take into account how mechanical properties are affected by radiation and temperature, or in other words, what strains and stresses develop in this material due to environmental conditions. While thermal strains in SiC can be predicted using classical theories, radiation-induced strains are much less understood. In particular, it is critical to correctly account for radiation swelling and radiation creep, which contribute significantly to dimensional instability of SiC under radiation. Swelling typically increases logarithmically with radiation dose and saturates at relatively low doses (damage levels of a few dpa). Consequently, swelling-induced stresses are likely to develop within a few months of operation of a reactor. Radiation-induced volume swelling in SiC can be as high as 2%, which is significantly higher than the cracking strain of 0.1% in SiC. Swelling-induced strains will lead to enormous stresses and fracture, unless these stresses can be relaxed via some other mechanism. An effective way to achieve stress relaxation is via radiation creep. Although it has been hypothesized that both radiation swelling and radiation creep are driven by formation of defect clusters, existing models for swelling and creep in SiC are limited by the lack of understanding of specific defects that form due to radiation in the range of temperatures relevant to fuel cladding in light water reactors (LWRs) (<1000°C). For example, defects that can be detected with traditional transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques account only for 10-45% of the swelling measured in irradiated SiC. Here, we have undertaken an integrated experimental and modeling effort to discover the previously invisible defects in irradiated SiC and to determine the contributions of these defects to radiation swelling. Knowledge of the most stable defect structures and the rate controlling processes during defect evolution is essential for development of predictive models for swelling and creep as a function of temperature and radiation dose. This research has been enabled by state-of-the-art imaging techniques, such as the aberration corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) (FEI TITAN) closely coupled with multi-scale models of stable defect clusters and their evolution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Final Report for Project: Impacts of stratification and non-equilibrium winds and waves on hub-height winds

This project used a combination of turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations, single-column modeling (where turbulence is parameterized), and currently available observations to improve, assess, and develop a parameterization of the impact of non-equilibrium wave states and stratification on the buoy-observed winds to establish reliable wind data at the turbine hub-height level. Analysis of turbulence-resolving simulations and observations illuminates the non-linear coupling between the atmosphere and the undulating sea surface. This analysis guides modification of existing boundary layer parameterizations to include wave influences for upward extrapolation of surface-based observations through the turbine layer. Our surface roughness modifications account for the interaction between stratification and the effects of swell’s amplitude and wavelength as well as swell’s relative motion with respect to the mean wind direction. The single-column version of the open source Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al., 2008) serves as our platform to test our proposed planetary boundary layer parameterization modifications that account for wave effects on marine atmospheric boundary layer flows. WRF has been widely adopted for wind resource analysis and forecasting. The single column version is particularly suitable to development, analysis, and testing of new boundary layer parameterizations. We utilize WRF’s single-column version to verify and validate our proposed modifications to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization (Nakanishi and Niino, 2004). We explore the implications of our modifications for two-way coupling between WRF and wave models (e.g.,Wavewatch III). The newly implemented parameterization accounting for marine atmospheric boundary layer-wave coupling is then tested in three-dimensional WRF simulations at grid sizes near 1 km. These simulations identify the behavior of simulated winds at the wind plant scale. Overall project conclusions include; In the presence of fast-moving swell (significant wave height Hs = 6.4 m, and phase speed cp = 18 ms -1 ), the atmospheric boundary layer grows more rapidly when waves propagate opposite to the winds compared to when winds and waves are aligned. Pressure drag increases by nearly a factor of 2 relative to the turbulent stress for the extreme case where waves propagate at 180° compared to the pressure gradient forcing. Net wind speed reduces by nearly 15% at hub-height for the 180°-case compared to the 0°-case, and turbulence intensities increase by nearly a factor of 2. These impacts diminish with decreasing wave age; Stratification increases hub height wind speeds and increases the vertical shear of the mean wind across the rotor plane. Fortuitously, this stability-induced enhanced shear does not influence turbulence intensity at hub height, but does increase (decrease) turbulence intensity below (above) hub height. Increased stability also increases the wave-induced pressure stress by ~ 10%; Off the East Coast of the United States during Coupled Boundary Layers Air-Sea Transfer - Low Wind (CBLAST-Low), cases with short fetch include thin stable boundary layers with depths of only a few tens of meters. In the coastal zone, the relationship between the mean wind and the surface fiction velocity (u*(V )) is significantly related to wind direction for weak winds but is not systematically related to the air sea difference of virtual potential temperature, δθv; since waves generally propagate from the south at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) tower, these results suggest that under weak wind conditions waves likely influence surface stress more than stratification does; and Winds and waves are frequently misaligned in the coastal zone. Stability conditions persist for long duration. Over a four year period, the Forschungsplattformen in Nord- und Ostsee Nr. 1 (FINO1) tower (a site with long fetch) primarily experienced weakly-unstable conditions, while stability at the ASIT tower (with a larger influence of offshore winds) experiences a mix of both unstable and stable conditions, where the summer months are predominantly stable. Wind-wave misalignment likely explains the large scatter in observed non-dimensional surface roughness under swell-dominated conditions. Andreas et al.’s (2012) relationship between u* and the 10-m wind speed under predicts the increased u* produced by wave-induced pressure drag produced by misaligned winds and waves. Incorporating wave-state (speed and direction) influences in parameterizations improves predictive skill. In a broad sense, these results suggest that one needs information on winds, temperature, and wave state to upscale buoy measurements to hub-height and across the rotor plane. Our parameterization of wave-state influences on surface drag has been submitted for inclusion in the next publicly available release. In combination, our project elucidates the impacts of two important physical processes (non-equilibrium wind/waves and stratification) on the atmosphere within which offshore turbines operate. This knowledge should help guide and inform manufacturers making critical decisions surrounding design criteria of future turbines to be deployed in the coastal zone. Reductions in annually averaged hub height wind speed error using our new wave-state-aware surface layer parameterization are relatively modest. However since wind turbine power production depends on the wind speed cubed, the error in estimated power production is close to 5%; which is significant and can substantially impact wind resource assessment and decision making with regards to the viability of particular location for a wind plant location. For a single 30-hour forecast, significant reductions in wind speed prediction errors can yield substantially improved wind power forecast skill, thereby mitigating costs and/or increasing revenue through improved; forecasting for maintenance operations and planning; day-ahead forecasting for power trading and resource allocation; and short-term forecasting for dispatch and grid balancing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. (1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. (2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. (3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today's most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV's monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. (4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. (5) Accounting for DPV's location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. (6) Estimating DPV's impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. (7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. (8) Considering changes in DPV's value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. (9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. 1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. 2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. 3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today’s most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV’s monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. 4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. 5) Accounting for DPV’s location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. 6) Estimating DPV’s impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. 7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. 8) Considering changes in DPV’s value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. 9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

High power ring methods and accelerator driven subcritical reactor application

High power proton accelerators allow providing, by spallation reaction, the neutron fluxes necessary in the synthesis of fissile material, starting from Uranium 238 or Thorium 232. This is the basis of the concept of sub-critical operation of a reactor, for energy production or nuclear waste transmutation, with the objective of achieving cleaner, safer and more efficient process than today’s technologies allow. Designing, building and operating a proton accelerator in the 500-1000 MeV energy range, CW regime, MW power class still remains a challenge nowadays. There is a limited number of installations at present achieving beam characteristics in that class, e.g., PSI in Villigen, 590 MeV CW beam from a cyclotron, SNS in Oakland, 1 GeV pulsed beam from a linear accelerator, in addition to projects as the ESS in Europe, a 5 MW beam from a linear accelerator. Furthermore, coupling an accelerator to a sub-critical nuclear reactor is a challenging proposition: some of the key issues/requirements are the design of a spallation target to withstand high power densities as well as ensure the safety of the installation. These two domains are the grounds of the PhD work: the focus is on the high power ring methods in the frame of the KURRI FFAG collaboration in Japan: upgrade of the installation towards high intensity is crucial to demonstrate the high beam power capability of FFAG. Thus, modeling of the beam dynamics and benchmarking of different codes was undertaken to validate the simulation results. Experimental results revealed some major losses that need to be understood and eventually overcome. By developing analytical models that account for the field defects, one identified major sources of imperfection in the design of scaling FFAG that explain the important tune variations resulting in the crossing of several betatron resonances. A new formula is derived to compute the tunes and properties established that characterize the effect of the field imperfections on the transverse beam dynamics. The results obtained allow to develop a correction scheme to minimize the tune variations of the FFAG. This is the cornerstone of a new fixed tune non-scaling FFAG that represents a potential candidate for high power applications. As part of the developments towards high power at the KURRI FFAG, beam dynamics studies have to account for space charge effects. In that framework, models have been installed in the tracking code ZGOUBI to account for the self-interaction of the particles in the accelerator. Application to the FFAG studies is shown. Finally, one focused on the ADSR concept as a candidate to solve the problem of nuclear waste. In order to establish the accelerator requirements, one compared the performance of ADSR with other conventional critical reactors by means of the levelized cost of energy. A general comparison between the different accelerator technologies that can satisfy these requirements is finally presented. In summary, the main drawback of the ADSR technology is the high Levelized Cost Of Energy compared to other advanced reactor concepts that do not employ an accelerator. Nowadays, this is a show-stopper for any industrial application aiming at producing energy (without dealing with the waste problem). Besides, the reactor is not intrinsically safer than critical reactor concepts, given the complexity of managing the target interface between the accelerator and the reactor core.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Study of High Fluence Radiation-induced Swelling and Hardening under Light Water Reactor Conditions

This report documents a comprehensive model that has been developed to enable simulations of microstructural evolution under the irradiation conditions typical of light water reactor (LWR) internal components. The model, which accounts cascade production of point defects and vacancy, interstitial faulted dislocation loops, interstitial clusters migrating one-dimensionally and the evolution of the network dislocation structure, has been parameterized to account damage accumulation in austenitic stainless steels. Nucleation and growth of an ensemble of cavities is based on accounting the residual and produced by irradiation He atoms and existence of the dislocation and production biases. Additional applications and potential future developments for the model are also discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

FY2016 ILAW Glass Corrosion Testing with the Single-Pass Flow-Through Method

The inventory of immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) produced at the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will be disposed of at the near-surface, on-site Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). When groundwater comes into contact with the waste form, the glass will corrode and radionuclides will be released into the near-field environment. Because the release of the radionuclides is dependent on the dissolution rate of the glass, it is important that the performance assessment (PA) model accounts for the dissolution rate of the glass as a function of various chemical conditions. To accomplish this, an IDF PA model based on Transition State Theory (TST) can be employed. The model is able to account for changes in temperature, exposed surface area, and pH of the contacting solution as well as the effect of silicon concentrations in solution, specifically the activity of orthosilicic acid (H4SiO4), whose concentration is directly linked to the glass dissolution rate. In addition, the IDF PA model accounts for the alkali-ion exchange process as sodium is leached from the glass and into solution. The effect of temperature, pH, H4SiO4 activity, and the rate of ion-exchange can be parameterized and implemented directly into the PA rate law model. The rate law parameters are derived from laboratory tests with the single-pass flow-through (SPFT) method. To date, rate law parameters have been determined for seven ILAW glass compositions, thus additional rate law parameters on a wider range of compositions will supplement the existing body of data for PA maintenance activities. The data provided in this report can be used by ILAW glass scientists to further the understanding of ILAW glass behavior, by IDF PA modelers to use the rate law parameters in PA modeling efforts, and by Department of Energy (DOE) contractors and decision makers as they assess the IDF PA program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cost-Reduction Roadmap for Residential Solar Photovoltaics (PV), 2017-2030

The installed cost of solar photovoltaics (PV) has fallen rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue declining in the future. In this report, we focus on the potential for continued PV cost reductions in the residential market. From 2010 to 2017, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for residential PV declined from 52 cents per kilowatt-hour (cents/kWh) to 16 cents/kWh (Fu et al. 2017). The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) recently set new LCOE targets for 2030, including a target of 5 cents/kWh for residential PV. We present a roadmap for achieving the SETO 2030 residential PV target. Because the 2030 target likely will not be achieved under business-as-usual trends (NREL 2017), we examine two key market segments that demonstrate significant opportunities for cost savings and market growth: installing PV at the time of roof replacement and installing PV as part of the new home construction process. Within both market segments, we identify four key cost-reduction opportunities: market maturation, business model integration, product innovation, and economies of scale. To assess the potential impact of these cost reductions, we compare modeled residential PV system prices in 2030 to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) quarter one 2017 (Q1 2017) residential PV system price benchmark (Fu et al. 2017). We use a bottom-up accounting framework to model all component and project-development costs incurred when installing a PV system. The result is a granular accounting for 11 direct and indirect costs associated with installing a residential PV system in 2030. All four modeled pathways demonstrate significant installed-system price savings over the Q1 2017 benchmark, with the visionary pathways yielding the greatest price benefits. The largest modeled cost savings are in the supply chain, sales and marketing, overhead, and installation labor cost categories. When we translate these installed-system costs into LCOE, we find that the less-aggressive pathways achieve significant cost reductions, but may not achieve the 2030 LCOE target. On the other hand, both visionary pathways could get very close to (for roof replacement) or achieve (for new construction) the 2030 target. Our analysis has two key implications. First, because installed-system soft cost reductions account for about 65 percent of the LCOE reductions in 2030 for both visionary pathways, residential PV stakeholders may need to emphasize these soft cost reductions to achieve the 2030 target. Second, capturing these savings will likely require considerable innovation in the technologies and business practices employed by the PV industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable WOL was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of IHLW glass when no uncertainties were taken into accound. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). ILAW mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with weaste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MTG. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2004-2011 Passenger Cars and LTVs” (LBNL Phase 1)

In its 2012 report NHTSA simulated the effect four fleetwide mass reduction scenarios would have on the change in annual fatalities. NHTSA estimated that the most aggressive of these scenarios (reducing mass 5.2% in heavier light trucks and 2.6% in all other vehicles types except lighter cars) would result in a small reduction in societal fatalities. LBNL replicated the methodology NHTSA used to simulate six mass reduction scenarios, including the mass reductions recommended in the 2015 NRC committee report, and estimated in 2021 and 2025 by EPA in the TAR, using the updated data through 2012. The analysis indicates that the estimated x change in fatalities under each scenario based on the updated analysis is comparable to that in the 2012 analysis, but less beneficial or more detrimental than that in the 2016 analysis. For example, an across the board 100-lb reduction in mass would result in an estimated 157 additional annual fatalities based on the 2012 analysis, but would result in only an estimated 91 additional annual fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, and an additional 87 fatalities based on the current analysis. The mass reductions recommended by the 2015 NRC committee report would result in a 224 increase in annual fatalities in the 2012 analysis, a 344 decrease in annual fatalities in the 2016 analysis, and a 141 increase in fatalities in the current analysis. The mass reductions EPA estimated for 2025 in the TAR would result in a 203 decrease in fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, but an increase of 39 fatalities based on the current analysis. These results support NHTSA’s conclusion from its 2012 study that, when footprint is held fixed, “no judicious combination of mass reductions in the various classes of vehicles results in a statistically significant fatality increase and many potential combinations are safety-neutral as point estimates.”Like the previous NHTSA studies, this updated report concludes that the estimated effect of mass reduction while maintaining footprint on societal U.S. fatality risk is small, and not statistically significant at the 95% or 90% confidence level for all vehicle types based on the jack-knife method NHTSA used. This report also finds that the estimated effects of other control variables, such as vehicle type, specific safety technologies, and crash conditions such as whether the crash occurred at night, in a rural county, or on a high-speed road, on risk are much larger, in some cases two orders of magnitude larger, than the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, this report shows that after accounting for the many vehicle, driver, and crash variables NHTSA used in its regression analyses, there remains a wide variation in risk by vehicle make and model, and this variation is unrelated to vehicle mass. Although the purpose of the NHTSA and LBNL reports is to estimate the effect of vehicle mass reduction on societal risk, this is not exactly what the regression models are estimating. Rather, they are estimating the recent historical relationship between mass and risk, after accounting for most measurable differences between vehicles, drivers, and crash times and locations. In essence, the regression models are comparing the risk of a 2600-lb Dodge Neon with that of a 2500-lb Honda Civic, after attempting to account for all other differences between the two vehicles. The models are not estimating the effect of literally removing 100 pounds from the Neon, leaving everything else unchanged. In addition, the analyses are based on the relationship of vehicle mass and footprint on risk for recent vehicle designs (model year 2004 to 2011). These relationships may or may not continue into the future as manufacturers utilize new vehicle designs and incorporate new technologies, such as more extensive use of strong lightweight materials and specific safety technologies. Therefore, throughout this report we use the phrase “the estimated effect of mass (or footprint) reduction on risk” as shorthand for “the estimated change in risk as a function of its relationship to mass (or footprint) for vehicle models of recent design.”

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Mechanical Behavior of UO 2 at Sub-grain Length Scales: Quantification of Elastic, Plastic and Creep Properties via Microscale Testing

Techniques were developed to measure properties at sub-grain scales using depleted Uranium Oxide (d-UO2) samples heat-treated to obtain different grain sizes and oxygen stoichiometries, through three main tasks: 1) sample processing and characterization, 2) microscale and conventional testing and 3) modeling. Grain size and crystallography were characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), in conjunction with Electron Backscattering Diffraction (EBSD) and Electron Channeling Contrast Imaging (ECCI). Grains were then carefully selected based on their crystallographic orientations to perform ex-situ micromechanical tests with samples machined via Focused Ion Beam (FIB), with emphasis on micro-cantilever bending. These experiments were performed under controlled atmospheres, to insure stoichiometry control, at temperatures up to 700 °C and allowed measurements involving elastic (effective Young’s modulus), plastic (critical resolved shear stresses) and creep (creep strain rates) behavior. Conventional compression experiments were performed simultaneously to compare with the ex-situ measurements and study potential size effects. Modeling was implemented using anisotropic elasticity and inelastic constitutive relations for plasticity and creep based on kinematics and kinetics of dislocation glide that account for the effects of crystal orientation, and stress. The models will be calibrated and validated using the experimental data. This project provided insight on correlations among stoichiometry, crystallography and mechanical behavior in advanced oxide fuels, provided valuable experimental data to validate and calibrate mesoscale fuel performance codes and also a framework to measure sub-grain scale mechanical properties that should be suitable for use with irradiated samples due to small volumes required. The goals and metrics of the ongoing study of thermo-mechanical behavior in depleted uranium dioxide (d-UO 2 ) outlined in this project have been concluded successfully, resulting in: 1) the successful fabrication, processing, and characterization of large-grained samples with various orientations (up to and including single crystals) having stoichiometric and hyper-stoichiometric O/U ratios; 2) formulation, calibration, and validation of a crystal plasticity constitutive model to describe the creep deformation of UO 2 at the sub-grain length scale (single crystal level) at intermediate temperatures; 3) the successful calibration of a crystal plasticity constitutive model to describe the elasto-plastic deformation of microcantilever beams, also at moderate temperatures. Samples were prepared from natural uranium oxide powder of production-quality provided by Areva. The powder was pressed in a die to a pressure of 100 MPa to produce green pellets with no sintering aids, lubricants, or any other additives. The green pellets were then heated up to 1700 °C under ultra-high purity argon atmosphere (~1 ppm O2). The atmosphere was then changed to 79% Argon, 21% O 2 and the temperature was held at 1700 °C for 2 hours to sinter the pellets under oxidative conditions [1] that are known to increase grain growth kinetics in UO 2 [2]. Samples were then cooled down under Ar-4%H2 atmosphere to reduce the samples back to stoichiometric UO 2 . For macro-scale procedures, testing of UO 2 samples with large grains was performed at 1200 °C using a modified load frame capable of applying dead-weight loads to ensure constant stress conditions, while displacement of the sample produced by the applied load was measured with high precision micrometers to obtain strains. Stress steps were used during testing and the strains were monitored to measured creep strain rates under steady state for each level of stress used, so that stress exponents could be obtained. The results of the mechanical testing, along with sample geometry and crystal orientation of the grains in the samples, as well as post-test sample characterization were used to formulate a viscoplastic model to account for steady state (stage II) creep behavior, along with basic assumptions from crystal plasticity and kinematic constraints due to testing fixtures. In the micro-scale, testing of microcantilever beams at temperatures ranging from 25 to 570 °C was performed in-situ with a scanning electron microscope with a special attachment to apply load and measure displacement while the samples were at temperature. The load-displacement curves obtained showed linear behavior before fracture for all temperatures attempted except 570 °C, where clear deviations from non-linearity were observed before fracture. These deviations were consistently observed for all samples tested for a given orientation. A viscoplastic model was used to account for the presence of inelastic strain, along with basic assumptions from crystal plasticity and beam theory. These models were kept as simple as possible, and results from tests performed in a set of samples with a given crystal orientation were used to calibrate the material constants for the model, while results from a different sample set were then used for validation, thus satisfying the conditions of all main tasks within the parameters of this project. Details of these efforts are outlined in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of CO 2 Storage Resources in Depleted Oil and Gas Fields in the Ship Shoal Area, Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most important regions in the United States for energy resources and infrastructure. Gulf of Mexico federal offshore oil and gas production accounts for 17% of total U.S. crude oil production and 5% of total U.S. gas production (EIA Gulf of Mexico Fact Sheet). This region presents an excellent combination of high need and significant opportunity for large scale geologic storage of CO 2 . The Ship Shoal Area is located about 20 miles offshore Louisiana within the Gulf Coast federal waters. Miocene and Pliocene sediments in the Ship Shoal Area are proven to provide excellent and secure traps for oil and gas. The Ship Shoal Area contains a large number of depleted oil and gas fields either currently abandoned, or planned for abandonment by 2025, which may provide very significant potential CO 2 storage capacity. GeoMechanics Technologies conducted a comprehensive research project to better characterize Neogene sediments in the Ship Shoal Area for high volume CO 2 storage. The data generated from literature, well data, well log, and formation evaluation were input into Rockwork 16 geologic software to create a detailed geologic model for the Ship Shoal study area. The geologic grids were then fed into TOUGH2, the gas migration model software and FLAC 3D, the geomechanical model software. The fluid flow modeling for both the Miocene and Pliocene simulation from both Block 107 and Block 84 indicated that Pliocene and Miocene are a good reservoir for the CO 2 sequestration. Thirty years of CO 2 injection (at a rate of 1 million metric tons CO 2 per year) and 30 years of observation simulations were run with the fluid flow modeling. The 3D geomechanical modeling for Ship Shoal Block 107 and Block 84 were developed to evaluate induced surface deformation and potential fault reactivation after 30 years CO 2 injection at base of Pliocene and at upper Miocene injection locations. Evaluation results indicate low to no risks for fault slips or fault reactivation. Twelve well bores and 76 well bores for Ship Shoal Blocks 84 and 107 respectively were reviewed for their cement history. Most wells (57 out of 76 and 7 out of 12 wells in Ship Shoal Block 107 and 84 respectively) have good integrity. Nineteen and 5 wells (in Ship Shoal Block 107 and 84 respectively) with no top plug, incomplete cement or Plug and Abandonment information are given yellow cautionary indicators. These cautionary wells may provide leakage paths of CO 2 through the well bores to the USDWs. Using our Quantitative Risk & Decision Analysis Tool (QRDAT) for caprock integrity evaluation, we compared Ship Shoal’s risk to that of In Salah, Sleipner, Kevin Dome, Loudon, Illinois Industrial CCS and Wilmington Graben. We found the risk at the Ship Shoal Blocks 84 and 107 fields are similar to the known CO 2 active sequestration sites, but lower than the Wilmington Graben turbidities offshore California studied site. The risk of natural seismicity in the Gulf of Mexico is relatively low. Geomechanics Technologies has documented the top 25 CO 2 emission sources within the close proximity of the Ship Shoal Block 84 and 107 fields. All the offshore and onshore pipelines have been digitized and can be viewed in an interactive website (http://www.geomechanicstech.com/shipshoal.html). We also performed a feasibility study on the potential for converting existing oil or gas pipelines for CO 2 transport. There are abandoned, idled and retired onshore and offshore pipelines. However, there is no standard specification for maximum pipeline pressures needed for CO 2 transport. It is a function of design, materials, and testing provided; thus it will be the responsibility of the pipeline operator to correctly determine, maintain and operate within the limits of the pipelines. There are a few transit corridors extending from onshore Louisiana (Cailou Bay) to offshore trunk-lines. The cost for constructing a pipeline has increased about 46% from 2015 to an average cost of $5,064,046 per mile in 2016. We use the NETL CO 2 storage resource mass estimate to calculate the potential resources for Ship Shoal Block 84 and 107 fields using the depleted oil and gas reservoir volume and sand volume generated from our geologic modeling. The estimated storage resource results are greater when using the sand volumes derived through geologic modeling than the oil and gas reservoir data. The difference is due to the depleted oil and gas reservoir information not accounting for the water-flooded sand located below the oil/gas-water contact or unproductive sand units. Resource calculation using the sand volume obtained through geologic modeling overestimate the storage capacity as the model accounts for all sand within the formation, not just the interconnected sand.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2018

FY2017 ILAW Glass Corrosion Testing with the Single-Pass Flow-Through Method

The inventory of immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) produced at the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will be disposed of at the near-surface, on-site Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). When groundwater comes into contact with the waste form, the glass will corrode and radionuclides will be released into the near-field environment. Because the release of the radionuclides is dependent on the dissolution rate of the glass, it is important that the performance assessment (PA) model accounts for the dissolution rate of the glass as a function of various conditions. To accomplish this, an IDF PA glass dissolution model based on Transition State Theory (TST) can be employed. The model is able to account for changes in temperature, exposed surface area, and pH of the contacting solution as well as the effect of silicon solution concentrations, specifically the activity of orthosilicic acid (H4SiO4), whose concentration is directly linked to the glass dissolution rate. In addition, the IDF PA model accounts for the ion exchange process. The effect of temperature, pH, H4SiO4 activity, and the rate of ion exchange can be parameterized and implemented directly into the PA rate model. The rate model parameters are derived from laboratory tests with the single-pass flow-through (SPFT) method. The provided data can be used by glass researchers to further the understanding of ILAW glass behavior, by IDF PA modelers to use the rate model parameters in PA modeling efforts, and by Department of Energy (DOE) contractors and decision makers as they assess the IDF PA program.

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DOE OSTI2017

Enabling Fast Charging: A Technology Gap Assessment

The transportation sector accounts for the largest percentage of energy use in the United States. Decreasing energy consumption across this sector, especially in commercial light duty transportation, is essential for the U.S. to gain energy independence. Recently, powertrain electrification with plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have gained traction as an alternative due to their inherent efficiency advantages compared to the traditional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). Accounting for 500,000 vehicle on the road today, these PEVs will reduce oil imported into the U.S. by five billion gallons and save two billion dollars in fuel costs to consumers over their useful life. Though there are many different classes of PEV, the intent of this study is to focus on non-hybrid powertrains, or battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Despite rapid drops in cost within the BEV powertrain of over 4x in the last 10 years, the PEV market still only accounts for approximately 1% of new light duty vehicle sales annually. Though BEV powertrain costs are not quite at parity with the ICEV, another gap to wider adoption of BEVs that have been identified is the ability to refuel quickly, or to fast charge. Though the majority of recharging BEVs is done at home, having access to fast charge stations has a big impact on BEV utility from a consumer perspective. To address the fast charge barrier, charging at 350 kW, or extreme fast charging (XFC), has been proposed and will serve as the basis for discussion in this report. Studies have shown that in areas where drivers have access to 50 kW or 120 kW fast charge stations, annual electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT) increased by over 25%, even in cases where fast charging was used for 1-5% of total charging events [1, 2]. Having access to these fast charge stations can help alleviate the “range anxiety” that is cited as a common reason for consumers to hesitate to buy a BEV. Though, to be truly competitive to the ICEV refueling experience, even higher power stations are necessary. These extreme fast charge stations (XFC) should be able to recharge a BEV in less than 10 minutes and provide approximately 175 additional miles of driving. However, this introduces a host of new challenges that need to be addressed. As a result, it is expected that packs designed to meet XFC will be significantly more expensive initially than BEVs optimized for range that can reach 140kW with current technology. From the battery cell to the power grid to which these 350 kW chargers are connected, this study will discuss the issues that need to be addressed at each level in order to implement a 350 kW charging network. Although this report is U.S.-focused, the findings should be applicable to other countries with mature automotive infrastructures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Module Manufacturing Costs and Sustainable Pricing: 1H 2018 Benchmark and Cost Reduction Road Map

In this paper we provide an overview of the accounting methods and most recent input data used within NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar photovoltaic (PV) module supply chain cost models. The costs accounting framework that is detailed in this paper provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up c-Si PV supply chain cost models in accordance with the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, ingot, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, we outline what is relevant for calculations of the costs of goods sold (consisting of the materials, labor, electricity, maintenance, and depreciation of capital equipment); as well as the additional operating expenses of research and development (R&D); and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A). This 2017 benchmark analysis is applied to current state-of-the-art manufacturing sites located within the United States, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Germany. Primarily due to country-dependent labor and electricity rates, tax rates, and cost-of-capital considerations, we calculate differences in minimum sustainable pricing for all of these countries. In this paper we also include technical descriptions and bottom-up cost model results for several emerging c-Si technologies including larger Czochralski (Cz) ingots, kerfless wafers, reduced silicon utilization by thinner wafers and advanced diamond wire wafering, new encapsulants and backsheets, shingled cells, and the cell architectures passivated emitter and rear cells (PERC), bifacial passivated emitter and rear totally diffused (PERT) cells, bifacial heterojunction intrinsic thin layer (HIT) cells, and interdigitated all back-contact cells (IBC).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution of Infiltration in the 216-U-10 and 216-B-3 Pond Systems 1944-1997

A modeling system to simulate fate and transport of contaminant plumes in groundwater beneath the Central Plateau to support the Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE) and Composite Analysis (CA) is being developed. The CIE will evaluate the cumulative effect of multiple Central Plateau radiological and chemical sources on groundwater quality (DOE/RL-2018-69, Cumulative Impact Evaluation Technical Approach Document ). This will enable cleanup decisions to be evaluated in the context of all Central Plateau waste sites and existing groundwater conditions. The CA evaluates the cumulative effect of all sources of radioactive materials on radiological dose to future members of the public (DOE/RL-2018-60, Annual Status Report (FY 2018): Composite Analysis of Low Level Waste Disposal in the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site ). Fate and transport modeling will be used to forecast future groundwater concentrations for both the CIE and CA. The CIE/CA subsurface modeling system is divided into source (inventory), vadose zone, and saturated zone facets. Source inventory is a necessary input to the vadose zone facet, and releases from the vadose zone to groundwater are inputs to the saturated zone facet. The vadose zone facet simulates historical and future releases from the vadose zone to groundwater for both liquid waste and solid waste disposal sites. Effluent release volumes and radionuclide inventory estimates for liquid waste sites are contained in ECFHANFORD- 17-0079, Hanford Soil Inventory Model (SIM-v2) Calculated Radionuclide Inventory of Direct Liquid Discharges to Soil in the Hanford Site’s 200 Areas , herein referred to as SIM-v2. The liquid waste sites in SIM-v2 include the 216-B-3 Pond near 200 East Area and the 216-U-10 Pond in 200 West Area. The 216-B-3 Pond system consisted of a main pond and 3 expansion lobes that were operational during overlapping time periods. It also included influent ditches, but these are not listed as liquid waste sources in SIM-v2 and are not included in the CIE/CA modeling. The total effluent volume released to the pond system was measured, but the partitioning of this volume to the various expansion lobes was not determined and is not accounted for in SIM-v2. Regarding the 216-U-10 Pond, it received water from several influent ditches. The pond and the influent ditches are listed as liquid waste sites in SIM-v2 and are included as sources in the CIE/CA modeling. Because water in the ditches flowed into the pond, only a portion of the effluent volumes and contaminant inventories assigned to the ditches in SIM-v2 infiltrated from the ditches. Thus, partitioning of infiltration and contaminant inventories between the ditches and the pond is not fully accounted for in SIM-v2. Further, some of the water in the 216-U-10 Pond entered overflow ditches and the amount of this overflow was not recorded and is not accounted for in SIM-v2. Thus, the purpose of this Environmental Calculation File (ECF) is to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the main pond and each expansion lobe of the 216-B-3 Pond system, and to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the ditches and pond of the 216-U-10 Pond system.

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