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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Interface capturing simulations of bubble population effects in PWR subchannels

As the computational power of high-performance computing (HPC) facilities grows, so too does the feasibility of using first principle based simulation to study turbulent two-phase flows within complex pressurized water reactor (PWR) geometries. Direct numerical simulation (DNS), integrated with an interface capturing method, allows for the collection of high-fidelity numerical data using advanced analysis techniques. The research presented here employs the massively parallel, finite-element based, unstructured mesh code, PHASTA, to simulate a set of two-phase bubbly flows through PWR subchannel geometries including auxiliary structures (spacer grids and mixing vanes). The main objective of the presented work is to analyze bubble dynamics and turbulence interactions at varying bubble concentrations to support the development of advanced two-phase flow closure models. Turbulent two-phase flows in PWR subchannels were simulated at hydraulic Reynolds numbers of 81,000 with bubble concentrations of 3%–15% by gas volume fraction (768–3928 resolved bubbles, respectively) and compared against a 1% void fraction case (262 bubbles) that had been previously simulated. The finite element mesh utilized for the study at higher bubble concentrations was composed of 1.55 billion elements, compared to the previous study which employed 1.11 billion elements, ensuring all turbulence scales and individual bubbles within the flow are fully resolved. For each case, the resolved initial bubble size was 0.65 mm in diameter (resolved with 25 grid points across the diameter). The simulations were analyzed to find flow features such as the mean velocity profile, bubble relative velocity and the effect of the bubbles on the turbulent conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Stress Birth and Death: Disruptive Computational Mechanics and Novel Diagnostics for Fluid-to-Solid Transitions

Many materials of interest to Sandia transition from fluid to solid or have regions of both phases coexisting simultaneously. Currently there are, unfortunately, no material models that can accurately predict this material response. This is relevant to applications that "birth stress" related to geoscience, nuclear safety, manufacturing, energy production and bioscience. Accurately capturing solidification and residual stress enables fully predictive simulations of the evolving front shape or final product. Accurately resolving flow of proppants or blood could reduce environmental impact or lead to better treatments for heart attacks, thrombosis, or aneurism. We will address a science question in this proposal: When does residual stress develop during the critical transition from liquid to solid and how does it affect material deformation? Our hypothesis is that these early phases of stress development are critical to predictive simulation of material performance, net shape, and aging. In this project, we use advanced constitutive models with yield stress to represent both fluid and solid behavior simultaneously. The report provides an abbreviated description of the results from our LDRD "Stress Birth and Death: Disruptive Computational Mechanics and Novel Diagnostics for Fluid-to-Solid Transitions," since we have written four papers that document the work in detail and which we reference. We give highlights of the work and describe the gravitationally driven flow visualization experiment on a model yield stress fluid, Carbopol, at various concentrations and flow rates. We were able to collapse the data on a single master curve by showing it was self-similar. We also describe the Carbopol rheology and the constitutive equations of interest including the Bingham-Carreau-Yasuda model, the Saramito model, and the HB-Saramito model including parameter estimation for the shear and oscillatory rheology. We present several computational models including the 3D moving mesh simulations of both the Saramito models and Bingham-Carreau-Yasuda (BCY) model. We also show results from the BCY model using a 3D level set method and two different ways of handling reduced order Hele-Shaw modeling for generalized Newtonian fluids. We present some first ever two-dimensional results for the modified Jeffries Kamani-Donley-Rogers constitutive equation developed during this project. We include some recent results with a successful Saramito-level set coupling that allows us to tackle problems with complex geometries like mold filling in a thin gap with an obstacle, without the need for remeshing or remapping. We report on some experiments for curing systems where fluorescent particles are used to track material flow. These experiments were carried out in an oven on Sylgard 184 as a model polymerizing system. We conclude the report with a summary of accomplishments and some thoughts on follow-on work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development and Validation of MALAMUTE model for Electric Field Assisted Sintering of Structural Materials

Fusion power plant designs feature extreme material performance requirements for structural material candidates. In addition to conventional alloys, more advanced composites and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys are being explored, however, achieving the desired microstructures to maximize performance using traditional manufacturing methods can be challenging. The advanced manufacturing (AM) electric field-assisted sintering (EFAS) technique offers improved control over the final microstructure through higher heating and cooling rates and moderate pressures. Modeling and simulation tools show promise in elucidating the process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM-produced parts, including the EFAS process. An inherently multiscale process, the EFAS technique aligns well with the multiscale modeling capability of the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)[cite]. We present here an electro-thermo-mechanical approach to modeling the EFAS process using the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) code. Prediction of the field and gradient distributions across the EFAS tooling is required to accurately describe the conditions for the lower-scale microstructural evolution models. In this work we present the MALAMUTE model developed to predict the electrical potential, temperature, and mechanical stress distribution across the EFAS graphite tooling and part at the larger engineering-scale. Validation of the MALAMUTE engineering-scale model is completed using data from experimental densification and pre-densified runs of iron powder via EFAS at 1000oC. These runs were conducted using a Thermal Technology DCS-5 EFAS system. Data collected during the experiment runs include the direct current (DC) supplied to the graphite tooling, the temperature of the graphite tooling as measured with a pyrometer, and the force applied to the top of the graphite tooling stack, and the data were recorded every 10 seconds. Our validation approach used the current and force data from the EFAS run as boundary condition inputs to the MAMALUTE simulation; the temperature data were used to evaluate the MALAMUTE EFAS model prediction. Results of the MALAMUTE simulations are employed to connect the external pyrometer temperature measurement to the temperature profile across the part undergoing consolidation. We investigate the impact of material property variation and mesh deformation on the temperature profile as predicted by MALAMUTE. We conclude by highlighting projects where the MALAMUTE EFAS modeling and simulation capabilities will be used to assist experimental design.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials: Part II Resveratrol Exemplar

This SAND report summarizes work supported by an Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) Lab Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled “Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials.” This SAND report is written in two parts with Part 1 discusses recrystallization of our explosive exemplar and Part 2 summarizing our work with recrystallization of resveratrol. We have studied resveratrol recrystallization with a multiscale approach combining experiments, modeling and simulation. At the single crystal scale, microscopy experiments illuminate crystal time-dependent growth rates using advanced image analysis. Bench scale experiments were carried out to look at growth of multiple particles in a small reactor creating thousands of particles and analyzing the results with microscopy and μCT. For the modeling we combine kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) models with subscale information from density functional theory (DFT) or molecular dynamics. This work is discussed in Part 1 and can also be found in a paper from the project discussing a coarse-grained kMC model specifically developed for resveratrol. For well-mixed systems, we have population balance equations (PBE) linked with species mass conservation forming a set of ordinary differential equations that can be solved quickly. For more complicated geometries, such as the vat crystallization used throughout the complex, a coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD)/PBE method was developed to account for gradients in temperature and concentration and differences in crystallization rates throughout the domain. These simulations are more complex and require high performance computing. We present results for two cases: 5% seed fast cool with parameters fit to the well-mixed case and 5% seed slow cool using the same parameters. We show reasonable agreement with experiments though are particles are significantly larger than the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-Physics Demonstration Problem with the SHARP Reactor Simulation Toolkit

This report describes to employ SHARP to perform a first-of-a-kind analysis of the core radial expansion phenomenon in an SFR. This effort required significant advances in the framework Multi-Physics Demonstration Problem with the SHARP Reactor Simulation Toolkit used to drive the coupled simulations, manipulate the mesh in response to the deformation of the geometry, and generate the necessary modified mesh files. Furthermore, the model geometry is fairly complex, and consistent mesh generation for the three physics modules required significant effort. Fully-integrated simulations of a 7-assembly mini-core test problem have been performed, and the results are presented here. Physics models of a full-core model of the Advanced Burner Test Reactor have also been developed for each of the three physics modules. Standalone results of each of the three physics modules for the ABTR are presented here, which provides a demonstration of the feasibility of the fully-integrated simulation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Simulation of natural circulation cartridge loop experiments and application to molten salt reactors

This work uses the TRAC/RELAP Advanced Computational Engine (TRACE) thermal hydraulics (TH) code to model natural circulation cartridge loop experiments previously conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using water and compares the simulated and experimental results. TRACE is also used to characterize natural circulation in the cartridge loop vehicle using FLiNaK as the working fluid. The experimental vehicle is a buoyancy-aided, annular cartridge loop, referred to as a thermosyphon, and is designed to aid in qualifying liquid–fueled and/or liquid–cooled irradiation experiments for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), which is currently being designed in the United States. Out-of-pile water experiments have been conducted using the cartridge and the Thermosyphon Test Loop facility at ORNL, and future experiments are anticipated that would use other molten salt surrogates as the working fluid, followed by eventual insertion of a similar cartridge into VTR. Additionally, this work aims to determine how well TRACE can replicate the natural convection conditions that were observed experimentally; this serves as an initial step for validating the modeling tool for design and safety calculations to support future irradiation experiments in VTR. Initial predictions of potential experiments were made using FLiNaK as the natural circulation fluid to demonstrate the relevance of the cartridge design to molten salt reactors (MSRs). Results from this study indicate that TRACE can accurately capture natural convection phenomena in the thermosyphon and that several design changes to the current cartridge vehicle are necessary to achieve hydraulic conditions similar to those expected in MSRs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA): Design and architecture

VERA, the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, is the system of physics capabilities being developed and deployed by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). CASL was established for the modeling and simulation of commercial nuclear reactors. VERA consists of integrating and interfacing software together with a suite of physics components adapted and/or refactored to simulate relevant physical phenomena in a coupled manner. VERA also includes the software development environment and computational infrastructure needed for these components to be effectively used. We describe the architecture of VERA from both software and numerical perspectives, along with the goals and constraints that drove major design decisions, and their implications. We explain why VERA is an environment rather than a framework or toolkit, why these distinctions are relevant (particularly for coupled physics applications), and provide an overview of results that demonstrate the use of VERA tools for a variety of challenging applications within the nuclear industry.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A review of thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of coupled processes in fractured rock: From continuum to discontinuum perspective

Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications. Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling. This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions. By comparing various models, one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions, particularly those related to the conceptual models. The review explores how these methodologies have significantly enhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production, and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems. It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience. The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specific conditions of applications. The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties, nonlinear THM coupled processes, scale dependence, and computational limitations in representing field scale fractures are discussed. Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization, mathematical modeling, selection of numerical solution strategies, implementation, and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflect the nuanced complexities of geological phenomena. Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical field of study.

Coupling scheme↗

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Here, our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Simulation of Xe-100-type Pebble Bed Gas-Cooled Reactor with SCALE

The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactor concepts. Awardees of ARDP funds are expected to demonstrate the operation of an advanced reactor within 7 years of receiving the award. X-Energy’s advanced reactor concept, the Xe-100, was selected as one of two advanced reactor concepts to receive funding to demonstrate the operation of its high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor before the end of this decade. As a result of this push to bring advanced reactors to maturation and commercialization, transition and deployment scenario studies are being performed under the Systems Analysis and Integration (SA&I) campaign within the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to evaluate the transition of the current US commercial fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) to a future fleet of advanced reactors consisting of a mix of ARDP type reactor concepts and advanced LWRs. To accurately evaluate the front- and back-end resource requirements, it is important to perform reactor physics calculations to determine the discharge burnup and isotopic content, fuel residence time, as well as other parameters. For this purpose, a summer project funded by the SA&I campaign allowed for the setup of SCALE models for full-core Xe-100 type high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor and a Xe-100 type slice using publicly available information. The core-averaged equilibrium compositions and zone-wise equilibrium compositions for the slice and 3D models, respectively, were obtained following an iterative depletion method developed by Bostelmann et al. using SCALE’s reactor physics sequence TRITON. The slice model was used with TRITON to generate burnup-dependent cross section libraries at different temperatures which can be used with SCALE’s ORIGAMI code to rapidly determine fuel inventory and therefore to perform quick sensitivity studies on parameters such as the pebble location in the core. The SCALE/TRITON transport and depletion calculation for the Xe-100 type slice model indicates that the isotopic concentrations are in good agreement at 1,300 effective full power days (EFPD) for 235 U. An analysis of 236 U results match 239 Pu results would seem to indicate a typographical error in Mulder and Boyes wherein the reported results of 236 U and 239 Pu are reversed. In addition to SCALE/TRITON calculations, a new capability within SCALE/ORIGAMI for the simulation of pebble-bed reactors was used to study the burnup sensitivity with respect to the pebble pathway through the core. The SCALE/ORIGAMI results show that pebbles that travel closer to the reflector for the entire depletion history have a higher burnup than pebbles that travel through the middle of the core because of the higher thermal to fast flux ratio near the reflector. Consequently, a pebble’s burnup is strongly affected by the pebble’s pathway for each pass. Additional phenomena such as temperature distributions in the core and different travel times of the pebbles in the individual radial zones further affect the burnup distribution. The sensitivity of the discharge vector to the pebble pathways taken during each pass can be evaluated in the future using SCALE/ORIGAMI now that the SCALE inputs have been established.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake

ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

2025 Advances in NekRS: Supporting improved performance for nuclear applications

This report presents several 2025 advancements in NekRS, a high-fidelity spectral element CFD code developed at Argonne National Laboratory to support the NEAMS thermal-hydraulics program. The forthcoming v25 release consolidates several of these advances, adding new features for portability across heterogeneous GPU architectures, real-time in situ visualization, improved turbulence modeling, and conjugate heat transfer coupling. Over the past year, NekRS has demonstrated strong scalability and performance on DOE’s leading exascale platforms, including Aurora and Frontier, confirming its readiness for some of the largest and most complex simulations attempted to date. These achievements provide a powerful new platform for high-fidelity data generation, which in turn supports the development and validation of advanced closure models critical for reactor safety and design. Significant algorithmic innovations have also been introduced. A new global runtime h-refinement capability simplifies workflows by reducing mesh preparation burdens and enabling coarse-to-fine restarts. Building on this, a novel multigrid strategy was implemented to accelerate pressure and transport solves at scale, addressing long-standing bottlenecks in exascale CFD. Together, these developments improve both the efficiency and accessibility of high-fidelity simulations for reactor-relevant problems. Collectively, these enhancements represent a major step forward in simulation technology, positioning NekRS as a cornerstone of NEAMS efforts to enable accurate, efficient, and scalable high-fidelity analysis of advanced nuclear systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Latent heat thermal energy storage performance maps enabling fast & accurate building energy simulations

Thermal energy storage (TES) using phase change materials (PCMs) has gained attention as an effective approach to manage energy demand fluctuations and shift peak building loads. PCM embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HXs) offer high energy storage density and low temperature variation during phase change, being suitable for load-shifting applications. However, this component is typically evaluated using computationally expensive methods, which present significant challenges when the ultimate goal is to assess the performance of PCM-HX integrated thermal energy storage systems in the full building context. In this paper, we present a methodology to generate highly accurate and computationally efficient PCM-HX performance maps which can be easily integrated into building energy simulation tools to analyze the feasibility of space conditioning systems with latent heat PCM-based TES. The performance maps are generated using a computationally efficient PCM-HX simulation tool based on a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model (GRCM) which can simulate arbitrary PCM-HXs with high accuracy and significantly less computational effort compared to full CFD simulations. The methodology was verified for a case study considering a 5-ton (~17.5 kW) air-to-water heat pump-thermal energy storage system (HP-TES), which was co-simulated in Modelica for a DOE prototype small-office building in Vienna, Austria, using Spawn of EnergyPlus™. The TES performance maps provided accurate predictions of PCM-HX behavior when used as Modelica component, with deviations within 2-4% while also achieving at least 103 computational time reduction. Leveraging this faster prediction capability, four PCMs with different melting temperatures for cooling (12°C, 16°C) and heating (31°C, 36°C) were assessed to investigate their impact on system performance. This work highlights the importance of robust PCM-HX models for efficient and high-fidelity building-level simulations, presenting new opportunities for advanced control strategy development and parametric analysis of TES configurations in a computationally efficient manner

Modelica Building Simulations↗

Coupling of Spark Plasma Sintering with Advanced Modeling to Enable Process Scale-Up: Presentation to DOE-NE [Slides]

The research goal of this project is to develop at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) a first-of-its-kind Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based, multiscale, multiphysics spark plasma sintering (SPS) modeling and simulation code application, termed “Freya.” Freya will simulate the thermo-mechanical-electrical aspects of the SPS fabrication process and will be paired with lower length scale sub-models, such as phase-field, to predict the resulting microstructure. SPS is an advanced manufacturing process that can be used to solve a variety of material manufacturing challenges; however, this process is an extremely challenging problem for modeling and simulation. The SPS process is inherently multiphysics and multi-scale, with the macroscale electro-thermo-mechanical behavior linked intricately to the microstructure evolution of the part being sintered. Accurate modeling and simulation tools, specifically geared towards the SPS process, are needed to predict the influence of the multiple variables involved in the manufacturing process. Modeling and simulation accuracy is achieved and demonstrated through comparison to multiple validation experiments. The validation efforts for Freya include both separate effects and complete multiphysics SPS process experiments. One of the key benefits this Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) project offers stems from the emphasis placed on experimental validation of the Freya models, both on the individual length scales and of the final coupled multiscale multiphysics simulations. Experimental validation of Freya’s multiscale coupling capability provides the technical credibility necessary for potential future industry and research partners to accept the simulation predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty quantification in multiscale simulation of woven fiber composites

We report woven fiber composites have been increasingly employed as light-weight materials in aerospace, construction, and transportation industries due to their superior properties. These materials possess a hierarchical structure that necessitates the use of multiscale simulations in their modeling. To account for the inherent uncertainty in materials, such simulations must be integrated with statistical uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation (UP) methods. However, limited advancement has been made in this regard due to the significant computational costs and complexities in modeling spatially correlated structural variations coupled at different scales. In this work, a non-intrusive approach is proposed for multiscale UQ and UP to address these limitations. We introduce the top-down sampling method that allows to model non-stationary and continuous (but not differentiable) spatial variations of uncertainty sources by creating nested random fields (RFs) where the hyperparameters of an ensemble of RFs is characterized by yet another RF. We employ multi-response Gaussian RFs in top-down sampling and leverage statistical techniques (such as metamodeling and dimensionality reduction) to address the considerable computational costs of multiscale simulations. We apply our approach to quantify the uncertainty in a cured woven composite due to spatial variations of yarn angle, fiber volume fraction, and fiber misalignment angle. Finally, our results indicate that, even in linear analysis, the effect of uncertainty sources on the material’s response could be significant.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model

The coastal streamflow flux from the Arctic drainage basin is an important driver of dynamics in the coupled ice-ocean system. Comprising more than one third of the total freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean, streamflow is a key component of the regional and global freshwater cycle. To better represent the coupling of the streamflow flux to the ocean, we have developed and applied the RVIC streamflow routing model within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM). The RASM is a high-resolution regional Earth System Model whose domain includes all of the Arctic drainage basin. Here in this paper, we introduce the RVIC streamflow routing model, detailing its application within RASM and its advancements in terms of representing high-resolution streamflow processes. We evaluate model simulated streamflow relative to in situ observations and demonstrate a method for improving model performance using a simple optimization procedure. We also present a new, spatially and temporally consistent, high-resolution data set of coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas that is based on a fully coupled RASM simulation and intended for use in Arctic Ocean modeling applications. This data set is evaluated relative to other coastal streamflow data sets commonly used by the ocean modeling community. We demonstrate that the RASM-simulated streamflow flux better represents the annual cycle than existing data sets, especially in ungauged areas. Finally, we assess the impact that streamflow has on the coupled ice-ocean system, finding that the presence of streamflow leads to reduced sea surface salinity, increased sea surface temperatures, and decreased sea ice thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗