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This slide deck provides an update on the progress of the project titled "MEP Core Tools" funded by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems program in the Vehicle Technologies Office at the Department of Energy.
The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.
This paper attempts to measure the average marginal effects of wind generation on the balancing-energy market price in ERCOT with the help of econometric analysis.
Even under healthy, basal conditions, physiologic systems show erratic fluctuations resembling those found in dynamical systems driven away from a single equilibrium state. Do such "nonequilibrium" fluctuations simply reflect the fact that physiologic systems are being constantly perturbed by external and intrinsic noise? Or, do these fluctuations actually, contain useful, "hidden" information about the underlying nonequilibrium control mechanisms? We report some recent attempts to understand the dynamics of complex physiologic fluctuations by adapting and extending concepts and methods developed very recently in statistical physics. Specifically, we focus on interbeat interval variability as an important quantity to help elucidate possibly non-homeostatic physiologic variability because (i) the heart rate is under direct neuroautonomic control, (ii) interbeat interval variability is readily measured by noninvasive means, and (iii) analysis of these heart rate dynamics may provide important practical diagnostic and prognostic information not obtainable with current approaches. The analytic tools we discuss may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals. We first review recent progress using two analysis methods--detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelets--sufficient for quantifying monofractual structures. We then describe recent work that quantifies multifractal features of interbeat interval series, and the discovery that the multifractal structure of healthy subjects is different than that of diseased subjects.
Ths paper describes a future Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) test which was planned as a part of the Trans-Pacific High Definition Video Satellite Communications Experiment. The TCP test portion of the Trans-Pacific High Definition Video Satellite Communications Experiment intends to examine the correlation between the underlying assumptions of come TCP algorithms and the performance shortfalls observed when the algorithms are used in a stellite-based environment, and to make experimental changes to existing TCP variants to study the effects of the modifications.
This report contains results from Phase 3 of the CCSDS - SFCG Efficient Modulation Methods Study conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Simulations were used to measure the end-to-end performance of a telemetry data transmission and capture system for Category A missions.
NASA's demonstration of the successful transmission of relay data through the orbiting Mars Odyssey, Mars Global Surveyor, and Mars Express by the Mars Exploration Rovers has shown not only the benefit of using a relay satellite for multiple landed assets in a deep space environment but also the benefit of international standards for such architecture. As NASA begins the quest defined in the Vision for Exploration with robotic and manned missions to the Moon, continues its study of Mars, and is joined in these endeavors by countries world-wide, landed assets transmitting data through relay satellites will be crucial for completing mission objectives. However, this method of delivery of data will result in increased complexity in routing and prioritization of data transmission as the number of missions increases. Also, there is currently no standard method among organizations conducting such missions to return these data sets to Earth given a complex environment. One possibility for establishing such a standard is for mission designers to deploy protocols which fall under the umbrella of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN). These developing standards include the Bundle Protocol (BP) which provides a standard, secure, store and forward mechanism designed for high latency and asymmetric communication links and the Licklider Transmission Protocol (LTP) which is used to provide a reliable deep space link transmission service.
STI is for a fact sheet on the Space Object Query Tool being created by the MDC. When planning launches, NASA must first factor in the tens of thousands of objects already in orbit around the Earth. The number of human-made objects, including nonfunctional spacecraft, abandoned launch vehicle stages, mission-related debris and fragmentation debris orbiting Earth has grown steadily since Sputnik 1 was launched in 1957. Currently, the U.S. Department of Defenses Joint Space Operations Center, or JSpOC, tracks over 15,000 distinct objects and provides data for more than 40,000 objects via its Space-Track program, found at space-track.org.
Presented at the Utility Wind Integration Group (UWIG) Workshop on Market Design and Operation With Variable Renewables, 22 June 2011, Fredericia, Denmark. This presentation provides an overview of the present U.S. electricity market, how it operates, and some solutions for improving its operation, cost accounting, and integration of renewable power resources.
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