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NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Presentation accompanying the technical report with the same name. The abstract for the report and the full study is repeated below. Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Next Generation X-ray Optics for Astrophysics: High Resolution, Light Weight, and Low Cost

Ready a technology with the following features, compared to Chandra’s. Much better angular resolution: - On-axis: Comparable(~0.5”HPD) by 2026, 5Xbetter by ~2030 - Off-axis: 10Xbetter at 10-arcmin off-axis Much lighter weight per unit area–at least 10Xlighter Much lower cost per unit area–at least 10X lower in real year dollars

Silicon X-ray mirrors↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of the NASA Electrical Power System – Sizing and Analysis Tool (EPS-SAT)

The electrification of aircraft propulsion systems has opened the design space for engineers by allowing for unique and highly specialized propulsion system and vehicle designs. NASA developed the Electrical Power System – Sizing and Analysis Tool (EPS-SAT) to conduct high-level trade studies and sensitivity studies on the various propulsion system designs that can be implemented in electrified aircraft. The results of these studies would be used to better direct investment dollars and determine strengths and weaknesses of propulsion system designs. In this paper, the results of the EPS-SAT tool were validated with hardware data extracted from the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) Advanced Reconfigurable Electric Aircraft Lab (AREAL). Updated performance maps were added to the EPS-SAT library so that high-fidelity results could be calculated.

Patrick A. Hanlon↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of a Combined Drought Indicator Against Crop Yield Estimations and Simulations Over the Argentine Humid Pampas

Droughts pose serious threats to the agricultural sector, especially in rainfed-dominated agricultural regions like those in Argentina’s Humid Pampas. This region was recently impacted by slow-evolving and long-lasting droughts as well as by flash droughts, resulting in losses reaching thousands of millions of US dollars. Improvements of drought early warning systems are essential, particularly given the projected increase in drought frequency and severity over southern South America. The spatial and temporal relationship between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health anomalies are crucial for better understanding and representation of the agricultural droughts and their impacts. In this context, the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) considers the causal and time-lagged relationship of these three variables. The study’s objective is twofold: (1) Analyze the time-lagged response between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and satellite fAPAR anomalies; and (2) Evaluate the CDI’s capability to characterize the severity of drought events on the Humid Pampas against agricultural yield estimations and simulations, as well as agricultural emergency declarations. The correlation among the variables shows strong spatial variability. The highest Pearson correlation values (r > 0.42) are observed over parts of the Humid Pampas for time lags of 0, 10, and 20 days between the variables. Although the CDI has limitations, such as its coarse spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution of precipitation data, it effectively tracks the progression of major drought events in the region. The CDI’s performance aligns well with estimations and simulations of soybean and corn yields, as well as official declarations of agricultural emergencies. Insights from this study also provide a basis for discussing potential improvements to the CDI. This study highlights the global and regional significance of evaluating and enhancing the CDI for effective drought monitoring, emphasizing the role of collaborative efforts for future advancements in drought early warning systems.

Combined Drought Indicator↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation, Mitigation,Tracking, and Characterization

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work(Colvin, Karcz, and Wusk. 2023), referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current paper summarizes the work of Locke and Colvin (2024), which contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Orbital Debris↗

DOE OSTI2012

Sensitivity Analysis of Offshore Wind Cost of Energy (Poster)

No matter the source, offshore wind energy plant cost estimates are significantly higher than for land-based projects. For instance, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) review on the 2010 cost of wind energy found baseline cost estimates for onshore wind energy systems to be 71 dollars per megawatt-hour ($/MWh), versus 225 $/MWh for offshore systems. There are many ways that innovation can be used to reduce the high costs of offshore wind energy. However, the use of such innovation impacts the cost of energy because of the highly coupled nature of the system. For example, the deployment of multimegawatt turbines can reduce the number of turbines, thereby reducing the operation and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with vessel acquisition and use. On the other hand, larger turbines may require more specialized vessels and infrastructure to perform the same operations, which could result in higher costs. To better understand the full impact of a design decision on offshore wind energy system performance and cost, a system analysis approach is needed. In 2011-2012, NREL began development of a wind energy systems engineering software tool to support offshore wind energy system analysis. The tool combines engineering and cost models to represent an entire offshore wind energy plant and to perform system cost sensitivity analysis and optimization. Initial results were collected by applying the tool to conduct a sensitivity analysis on a baseline offshore wind energy system using 5-MW and 6-MW NREL reference turbines. Results included information on rotor diameter, hub height, power rating, and maximum allowable tip speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2011

System Upgrades at the Advanced Test Reactor Help Ensure that Nuclear Energy Research Continues at the Idaho National Laboratory

Fully operational in 1967, the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is a first-of-its-kind materials test reactor. Located on the Idaho National Laboratory’s desert site, this reactor remains at the forefront of nuclear science, producing extremely high neutron irradiation in a relatively short time span. The Advanced Test Reactor is also the only U.S. reactor that can replicate multiple reactor environments concurrently. The Idaho National Laboratory and the Department of Energy recently invested over 13 million dollars to replace three of ATR’s instrumentation and control systems. The new systems offer the latest software and technology advancements, ensuring the availability of the reactor for future energy research. Engineers and project managers successfully completed the four year project in March while the ATR was in a scheduled maintenance outage. “These new systems represent state-of-the-art monitoring and annunciation capabilities,” said Don Feldman, ATR Station Manager. “They are comparable to systems currently used for advanced reactor designs planned for construction in the U.S. and in operation in some foreign countries.”

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2012

Blending Of Radioactive Salt Solutions In Million Gallon Tanks

Research was completed at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to investigate processes related to the blending of radioactive, liquid waste, salt solutions in 4920 cubic meter, 25.9 meter diameter storage tanks. One process was the blending of large salt solution batches (up to 1135 ? 3028 cubic meters), using submerged centrifugal pumps. A second process was the disturbance of a settled layer of solids, or sludge, on the tank bottom. And a third investigated process was the settling rate of sludge solids if suspended into slurries by the blending pump. To investigate these processes, experiments, CFD models (computational fluid dynamics), and theory were applied. Experiments were performed using simulated, non-radioactive, salt solutions referred to as supernates, and a layer of settled solids referred to as sludge. Blending experiments were performed in a 2.44 meter diameter pilot scale tank, and flow rate measurements and settling tests were performed at both pilot scale and full scale. A summary of the research is presented here to demonstrate the adage that, ?One good experiment fixes a lot of good theory?. Experimental testing was required to benchmark CFD models, or the models would have been incorrectly used. In fact, CFD safety factors were established by this research to predict full-scale blending performance. CFD models were used to determine pump design requirements, predict blending times, and cut costs several million dollars by reducing the number of required blending pumps. This research contributed to DOE missions to permanently close the remaining 47 of 51 SRS waste storage tanks.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2013

Automating Natural Disaster Impact Analysis: An Open Resource to Visually Estimate a Hurricane s Impact on the Electric Grid

An ORNL team working on the Energy Awareness and Resiliency Standardized Services (EARSS) project developed a fully automated procedure to take wind speed and location estimates provided by hurricane forecasters and provide a geospatial estimate on the impact to the electric grid in terms of outage areas and projected duration of outages. Hurricane Sandy was one of the worst US storms ever, with reported injuries and deaths, millions of people without power for several days, and billions of dollars in economic impact. Hurricane advisories were released for Sandy from October 22 through 31, 2012. The fact that the geoprocessing was automated was significant there were 64 advisories for Sandy. Manual analysis typically takes about one hour for each advisory. During a storm event, advisories are released every two to three hours around the clock, and an analyst capable of performing the manual analysis has other tasks they would like to focus on. Initial predictions of a big impact and landfall usually occur three days in advance, so time is of the essence to prepare for utility repair. Automated processing developed at ORNL allowed this analysis to be completed and made publicly available within minutes of each new advisory being released.

EARSS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Testing Low-Energy, High-Power Energy Storage Alternatives in a Full-Hybrid Vehicle (Presentation)

Automakers have been mass producing hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) for well over a decade, and the technology has proven to be very effective at reducing per-vehicle gasoline use. However, the battery cost in HEVs contribute to higher incremental cost of HEVs (a few thousand dollars) than the cost of comparable conventional vehicles, which has limited HEV market penetration. Significant cost reductions/performance improvements to the energy storage system (ESS) can improve the vehicle-level cost vs. benefit relationship for HEVs. Such an improvement could lead to larger HEV market penetration and greater aggregate gasoline savings. After significant analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) and Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Storage program suggested a new set of requirements for ESS for power-assist HEVs for cost reduction without impacting performance and fuel economy significantly. With support from DOE, NREL has developed an HEV test platform for in-vehicle performance and fuel economy validation testing of the hybrid system using such LEESS devices. This poster will describe development of the LEESS HEV test platform, and LEESS laboratory as well as in-vehicle evaluation results. The first LEESS technology tested was lithium-ion capacitors (LICs) - i.e., asymmetric electrochemical energy storage devices possessing one electrode with battery-type characteristics (lithiated graphite) and one with ultracapacitor-type characteristics (carbon). We will discuss the performance and fuel saving results with LIC with comparison with original NiMH battery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Sustaining the National Geothermal Data System: Considerations for a System Wide Approach and Node Maintenance, Geothermal Resources Council 37th Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, Nevada, September 29-October 2, 2013

Since the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act the U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office has funded $33.7 million for multiple data digitization and aggregation projects focused on making vast amounts of geothermal relevant data available to industry for advancing geothermal exploration. These projects are collectively part of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS), a distributed, networked system for maintaining, sharing, and accessing data in an effort to lower the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Determining “who owns” and “who maintains” the NGDS and its data nodes (repositories in the distributed system) is yet to be determined. However, the invest- ment in building and populating the NGDS has been substantial, both in terms of dollars and time; it is critical that this investment be protected by ensuring sustainability of the data, the software and systems, and the accessibility of the data. Only then, will the benefits be fully realized. To keep this operational system sustainable will require four core elements: continued serving of data and applications; maintenance of system operations; a governance structure; and an effective business model. Each of these presents a number of challenges. Data being added to the NGDS are not strictly geothermal but data considered relevant to geothermal exploration and develop- ment, including vast amounts of oil and gas and groundwater wells, among other data. These are relevant to a broader base of users. By diversifying the client base to other users and other fields, the cost of maintaining core infrastructure can be spread across an array of stakeholders and clients. It is presumed that NGDS will continue to provide free and open access to its data resources. The next-phase NGDS operation should be structured to eventually pursue revenue streams to help off-set sustainability expenses as necessary and appropriate, potentially including income from: grants and contracts (agencies, foundations, pri- vate sector), membership, fees for services (consulting, training, customization, ‘app’ development), repository services (data, services, apps, models, documents, multimedia), advertisements, fees for premier services or applications, subscriptions to value added services, licenses, contributions and donations, endow- ments, and sponsorships.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Approaches to Demonstrating Bankability and Differentiating Product Quality (Presentation)

As the PV Industry has matured, there is increasing interest in quantifying higher quality so that customers may select products that meet their needs, and investors are demanding high confidence before committing millions of dollars. The community is developing the knowledge and standard methods needed to address these. This talk will give an overview of new developments in the last year including descriptions and status of Qualification Plus (a test protocol that goes beyond the standard qualification tests), a PV-specific version of ISO 9001 (for increased confidence in manufacturing consistency), and the Regional Test Centers (where new products can be tested to quantify performance and durability in multiple climate zones.) Development of PV system-level certification will also be described.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Lower-Energy Energy Storage System (LEESS) Evaluation in a Full-Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) (Presentation)

The cost of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) (e.g., Toyota Prius or Ford Fusion Hybrid) remains several thousand dollars higher than the cost of comparable conventional vehicles, which has limited HEV market penetration. The battery energy storage device is typically the component with the greatest contribution toward this cost increment, so significant cost reductions/performance improvements to the energy storage system (ESS) can improve the vehicle-level cost-benefit relationship, which would in turn lead to larger HEV market penetration and greater aggregate fuel savings. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated with a United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) Workgroup to analyze trade-offs between vehicle fuel economy and reducing the minimum energy requirement for power-assist HEVs. NREL's analysis showed that significant fuel savings could still be delivered from an ESS with much lower energy storage than previous targets, which prompted the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) to issue a new set of lower-energy ESS (LEESS) targets that could be satisfied by a variety of technologies, including high-power batteries or ultracapacitors. NREL has developed an HEV test platform for in-vehicle performance and fuel economy validation testing of the hybrid system using such LEESS devices. This presentation describes development of the vehicle test platform and in-vehicle evaluation results using a lithium-ion capacitor ESS-an asymmetric electrochemical energy storage device possessing one electrode with battery-type characteristics (lithiated graphite) and one with ultracapacitor-type characteristics (carbon). Further efforts include testing other ultracapacitor technologies in the HEV test platform.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Small Businesses Save Big: A Borrower's Guide To Increase the Bottom Line Using Energy Efficiency (Fact Sheet)

Dollars saved through energy efficiency can directly impact your bottom line. Whether you are planning for a major renovation or upgrading individual pieces of building equipment, these improvements can help reduce operating costs, save on utility bills, and boost profits. This fact sheet provides a guide for small businesses to find the resources to increase the energy efficiency of their buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Small Businesses Save Big: A Guide to Help SBA Lenders Understand and Communicate the Value of Energy Efficiency Investments (Fact Sheet)

Dollars saved through energy efficiency can directly impact your bottom line. Whether you are planning for a major renovation or upgrading individual pieces of building equipment, these improvements can help reduce operating costs, save on utility bills, and boost profits. This fact sheet provides guidelines for SBA lenders to understand the value of financing energy efficiency investments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2014

Energy Management in Small Commercial Buildings: A Look at How HVAC Contractors Can Deliver Energy Efficiency to this Segment

While buildings smaller than 50,000 sq ft account for nearly half of the energy used in US commercial buildings, energy efficiency programs to-date have primarily focused on larger buildings. Interviews with stakeholders and a review of the literature indicate interest in energy efficiency from the small commercial building sector, provided solutions are simple and low-cost. An approach to deliver energy management to small commercial buildings via HVAC contractors and preliminary demonstration findings are presented. The energy management package (EMP) developed includes five technical elements: benchmarking and analysis of monthly energy use; analysis of interval electricity data (if available), a one-hour onsite walkthrough, communication with the building owner, and checking of results. This data-driven approach tracks performance and identifies low-cost opportunities, using guidelines and worksheets for each element to streamline the delivery process and minimize the formal training required. This energy management approach is unique from, but often complementary to conventional quality maintenance or retrofit-focused programs targeting the small commercial segment. Because HVAC contractors already serve these clients, the transaction cost to market and deliver energy management services can be reduced to the order of hundreds of dollars per year. This business model, outlined briefly in this report, enables the offering to benefit the contractor and client even at the modest expected energy savings in small buildings. Results from a small-scale pilot of this approach validated that the EMP could be delivered by contractors in 4-8 hours per building per year, and that energy savings of 3-5percent are feasible through this approach.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Do We Really Know how Much it Costs to Construct High Performance Buildings?

Understanding the cost of energy efficient construction is critical to decision makers in building design, code development, and energy analysis. How much does it cost to upgrade from R-13 to R-19 in a building wall? How much do low-e windows really cost? Can we put a dollar figure on commissioning? Answers to these questions have a fuzzy nature, based on educated guesses and industry lore. The response depends on location, perspective, bulk buying, and hand waving. This paper explores the development of a web tool intended to serve as a publicly available repository of building component costs. In 2011 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded the launch of a web tool called the Building Component Cost Community (BC3), dedicated to publishing building component costs from documented sources, actively gathering verifiable cost data from the users, and collecting feedback from a wide range of participants on the quality of the posted cost data. The updated BC3 database, available at http://bc3.pnnl.gov, went live on April 30, 2012. BC3 serves as the ultimate source of the energy-related component costs for DOE’s residential code development activities, including cost-effectiveness analyses. The paper discusses BC3 objectives, structure, functionality and the current content of the database. It aims to facilitate a dialog about the lack of verifiable transparent cost data, as well as introduce a web tool that helps to address the problem. The questions posed above will also be addressed by this paper, but they have to be resolved by the user community by providing feedback and cost data to the BC3 database, thus increasing transparency and removing information asymmetry.

building component cost, code requirements, IECC, ↗

DOE OSTI2014

Performance Evaluation of Lower-Energy Energy Storage Alternatives for Full-Hybrid Vehicles; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Automakers have been mass producing hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) for well over a decade, and the technology has proven to be very effective at reducing per-vehicle fuel use. However, the incremental cost of HEVs such as the Toyota Prius or Ford Fusion Hybrid remains several thousand dollars higher than the cost of comparable conventional vehicles, which has limited HEV market penetration. The b b b b battery energy storage device is typically the component with the greatest contribution toward this cost increment, so significant cost reductions/performance improvements to the energy storage system (ESS) can correspondingly improve the vehicle-level cost/benefit relationship. Such an improvement would in turn lead to larger HEV market penetration and greater aggregate fuel savings. The United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Storage Program managers asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to collaborate with a USABC Workgroup and analyze the trade-offs between vehicle fuel economy and reducing the decade-old minimum energy requirement for power-assist HEVs. NREL’s analysis showed that significant fuel savings could still be delivered from an ESS with much lower energy storage than the previous targets, which prompted USABC to issue a new set of lower-energy ESS (LEESS) targets that could be satisfied by a variety of technologies. With support from DOE, NREL has developed an HEV test platform for in-vehicle performance and fuel economy validation testing of the hybrid system using such LEESS devices. This presentation describes development of the vehicle test platform, and laboratory as well as in-vehicle evaluation results with alternate energy storage configurations as compared to the production battery system. The alternate energy storage technologies considered include lithium-ion capacitors -- i.e., asymmetric electrochemical energy storage devices possessing one electrode with battery-type characteristics (lithiated graphite) and one with ultracapacitor-type characteristics (carbon) -- and electrochemical double-layer capacitors.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗