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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Solution Drying by Moving a Liquid-Vapor Interface: Method and Applications

A method of simulating the drying process of a soft matter solution with an implicit solvent model by moving the liquid-vapor interface is applied to various solution films and droplets. For a solution of a polymer and nanoparticles, we observe “polymer-on-top” stratification, similar to that found previously with an explicit solvent model. Furthermore, “polymer-on-top” is found even when the nanoparticle size is smaller than the radius of gyration of the polymer chains. For a suspension droplet of a bidisperse mixture of nanoparticles, we show that core-shell clusters of nanoparticles can be obtained via the “small-on-outside” stratification mechanism at fast evaporation rates. “Large-on-outside” stratification and uniform particle distribution are also observed when the evaporation rate is reduced. Polymeric particles with various morphologies, including Janus spheres, core-shell particles, and patchy particles, are produced from drying droplets of polymer solutions by combining fast evaporation with a controlled interaction between the polymers and the liquid-vapor interface. Our results validate the applicability of the moving interface method to a wide range of drying systems. The limitations of the method are pointed out and cautions are provided to potential practitioners on cases where the method might fail.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO 2 on global plant transpiration

As CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere rises, there is a need for improved physical understanding of its impact on global plant transpiration. This knowledge gap poses a major hurdle in robustly projecting changes in the global hydrologic cycle. For this reason, here we review the different processes by which atmospheric CO 2 concentration affects plant transpiration, the several uncertainties related to the complex physiological and radiative processes involved, and the knowledge gaps which need to be filled in order to improve predictions of plant transpiration. Additionally, although there is a high degree of certainty that rising CO 2 will impact plant transpiration, the exact nature of this impact remains unclear due to complex interactions between CO 2 and climate, and key aspects of plant morphology and physiology. The interplay between these factors has substantial consequences not only for future climate and global vegetation, but also for water availability needed for sustaining the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Future changes in global plant transpiration in response to enhanced CO 2 are expected to be driven by water availability, atmospheric evaporative demand, plant physiological processes, emergent plant disturbances related to increasing temperatures, and the modification of plant physiology and coverage. Considering the universal sensitivity of natural and agricultural systems to terrestrial water availability we argue that reliable future projections of transpiration is an issue of the highest priority, which can only be achieved by integrating monitoring and modeling efforts to improve the representation of CO 2 effects on plant transpiration in the next generation of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Hygroscopic Properties of Internally Mixed Particles Composed of NaCl and Water-Soluble Organic Acids

Atmospheric aging of naturally emitted marine aerosol often leads to formation of internally mixed particles composed of sea salts and water soluble organic compounds of anthropogenic origin. Mixing of sea salt and organic components has profound effects on the evolving chemical composition and hygroscopic properties of the resulted particles, which are poorly understood. Here, we have studied chemical composition and hygroscopic properties of laboratory generated NaCl particles mixed with malonic acid (MA) and glutaric acid (GA) at different molar ratios using micro-FTIR spectroscopy and X-ray elemental microanalysis.Hygroscopic properties of inte rnally mixed NaCl and organic acid particles were distinctly different from pure components and varied significantly with the type and amount of organic compound present. Experimental results were in a good agreement with the AIM modeling calculations of gas/liquid/solid partitioning in studied systems. X-ray elemental microanalysis of particles showed that Cl/Na ratio decreased with increasing organic acid component in the particles with MA yielding lower ratios relative to GA. We attribute the depletion of chloride to the formation of Na-malonate and Na-glutarate salts resulted by HCl evaporation from dehydrating particles.

chloride depletion↗
DOE OSTI2014

Shape evolution at high spin states in Kr and Br isotopes

The high spin states in A = 75, Kr and Br isotopes have been populated via fusion-evaporation reaction at an incident beam energy of 90 MeV. The de-exciting γ-rays were detected utilizing the Indian National Gamma Array (INGA). Lifetime of these excited high spin states were determined by Doppler-shift attenuation method. Experimental results obtained from lifetime measurement are interpreted in the frame work of projected shell-model to get better insight into the evolution of collectivity. Comparison of the calculations of the model with transitional quadrupole moments Q{sub t} of the positive and negative parity bands firmly established their configurations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Divertorlets concept for low-recycling fusion reactor divertor: experimental, analytical and numerical verification

The 'divertorlets' concept is a potential non-evaporative liquid metal solution for heat removal at low recycling regime. A toroidal divertorlets prototype was built and tested in LMX-U at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory to evaluate the performance of this configuration. Here, details of the design, experimental results, comparison with analytical theory and MHD numerical simulations of toroidal divertorlets are covered. Experiments, analytical model and simulations showed agreement and allowed the projection of operation properties at higher magnetic flux densities (reactor-like operation), proving the concept to be a compelling solution for divertor applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong influence of convective heat transfer efficiency on the cooling benefits of green roof irrigation

Abstract By enhancing evapotranspiration (ET), green roofs provide cooling benefits for the urban environment and are recognized as a promising heat mitigation strategy. The evaporative cooling effects of green roofs strongly depend on the soil moisture conditions and thus irrigation may be needed to sustain the cooling benefits. It has been shown that the magnitude of cooling benefits offered by green roof irrigation varies spatially, but its controlling factors remain elusive. In this study, we combine a surface energy balance (SEB) model with global simulations generated by an improved Earth System Model to illustrate the key factors controlling the cooling benefits of green roof irrigation. We employ a simple irrigation scheme, which is only active when there is no ice in soil layers and when the soil moisture is below field capacity. As a result, most of the irrigation water leaves the green roof system via ET. We find that the magnitude and also the spatial variability of the cooling benefits of green roof irrigation are controlled by the irrigation amount, and a surface energy redistribution factor that encodes the efficiencies of different SEB components in transferring heat. Further analysis indicates that the enhancement of latent heat flux due to irrigation is largely balanced by the reduction of sensible heat flux on green roofs. Therefore, the amount of irrigation needed per unit decrease of green roof surface temperature is mainly controlled by the convective heat transfer efficiency. A lower convective heat transfer efficiency (e.g. under a lower wind speed) helps reduce the amount of irrigation needed per unit decrease of green roof surface temperature. This study highlights the importance of SEB in constraining the cooling benefits of green roof irrigation and provides valuable guidance for urban planners and policy makers in terms of heat mitigation and sustainable water management.

Wang, Linying (ORCID:0000000308769220)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Aerosol effects on the anvil characteristics, cold pool forcing and stratiform-convective precipitation partitioning and latent heating of mesoscale convective systems

The overarching science goal of this project has been to assess the impacts of aerosols on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). More specifically we have investigated the impacts of (a) aerosol types, (b) aerosol concentrations, and (c) the vertical and horizontal location of aerosols on the (1) anvil cloud characteristics and feedbacks; (2) total precipitation and the partitioning between convective and stratiform precipitation; (3) the vertical heating structure; (4) hydrometeor size distributions; and (5) the strength and intensity of the cold pools and updrafts. These have been achieved both through observational analyses and high-resolution cloud-resolving model simulations of three MCSs that were observed during the MC3E field campaign (25 April, 20 May and 23 May 2011). The primary findings of these research are the following: Condensation and deposition are the primary contributors to MCS latent warming, when compared to riming and nucleation processes. In terms of MCS latent cooling, sublimation, melting, and evaporation all play significant roles. Throughout the MCS lifecycle, convective regions demonstrate an approximately linear decrease in the magnitudes of latent heating rates, while latent heating within stratiform regions is associated with transitions between MCS flow regimes including the rear inflow jet. Such information regarding the temporal evolution of latent heating within convective and stratiform MCS regions could be useful in developing parameterizations representing convective organization. Increasing aerosol concentration from a clean continental to a highly polluted state produces an increase in the riming rates of cloud water, which results in less lofted cloud water in polluted environments. Aerosol-induced trends in the cloud mixing ratio profiles are, however, nonmonotonic in the mixed phase region, such that a moderate increase in aerosol concentration produces the greatest reduction in cloud water. Less lofted cloud water due to enhanced riming rates leads to reduced anvil ice mixing ratios but to greater numbers of small ice crystals within the anvil. In spite of reduced anvil ice mixing ratio, the anvil clouds exhibit greater areal coverage, increased albedo, reduced cloud top cooling, and reduced net radiative flux, which produces an aerosol-induced warming (reduced cooling) effect in these MCSs. Lower-tropospheric aerosol particles largely influence the MCS precipitation response directly rearward of the leading cold pool boundary. However, further backward in the MCS, the relative impact of lower- versus mid-tropospheric aerosol particles is strongly dependent on the MCS structure and differences in the line-normal wind shear. Mid-tropospheric aerosol particles are able to activate new cloud droplets in the mid-tropospheric levels of convective updrafts and thereby enhance mixed-phase precipitation through increased cloud riming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-scale Dynamics of Water Regulation by Bacteria in Synthetic Soil Microsystems (Final Technical Report)

The objective of this project was to develop a multifunctional in situ platform to link gene expression, regulation, and function with the spatiotemporal context of the whole cell environment. In particular, we focus on a synthetic rhizosphere microhabitat and spatial regulation of genes encoding production of exopolysaccharides, or EPS. We have fully met this objective and report results that support the hypothesis: microbial EPS production, acting at pore throats, limits water evaporation and promotes resilience of terrestrial soil systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal controls on isolated convective storm drafts, precipitation intensity, and life cycle as observed during GoAmazon2014/5

Abstract. Isolated deep convective cloud life cycle and seasonal changes in storm properties are observed for daytime events during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon Experiment (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign to understand controls on storm behavior. Storm life cycles are documented using surveillance radar from initiation through maturity and dissipation. Vertical air velocity estimates are obtained from radar wind profiler overpasses, with the storm environment informed by radiosondes. Dry-season storm conditions favored reduced morning shallow cloud coverage and larger low-level convective available potential energy (CAPE) than wet-season counterparts. The typical dry-season storm reached its peak intensity and size earlier in its life cycle compared with wet-season cells. These cells exhibited updrafts in core precipitation regions (Z>35 dBZ) to above the melting level as well as persistent downdrafts aloft within precipitation adjacent to their cores. Moreover, dry-season cells recorded more intense updrafts to earlier life cycle stages as well as a higher incidence of strong updrafts (i.e., >5 m s−1) at low levels. In contrast, wet-season storms were longer-lived and featured a higher incidence of moderate (i.e., 2–5 m s−1) updrafts aloft. These storms also favored a shift in their most intense properties to later life cycle stages. Strong downdrafts were less frequent within wet-season cells aloft, indicating a potential systematic difference in draft behaviors, as linked to graupel loading and other factors between the seasons. Results from a stochastic parcel model suggest that dry-season cells may expect stronger updrafts at low levels because of larger low-level CAPE in the dry season. Wet-season cells anticipate strong updrafts aloft because of larger free-tropospheric relative humidity and reduced entrainment-driven dilution. Enhanced dry-season downdrafts are partially attributed to increased evaporation, dry-air entrainment mixing, and negative buoyancy in regions adjacent to sampled dry-season cores.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observed Land Surface Influence on Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Profiles During Interstorms

Land-atmospheric (L-A) feedbacks have historically been studied using models whose structure and parameterizations influence outcomes and insights. The representation of L-A feedbacks based on observations alone remains an ongoing challenge for understanding boundary layer development and precipitation. To address this gap, we use ground-based passive remote sensing and in-situ observations to present an analysis of the atmosphere during 103 interstorm soil moisture drydown events spanning nine warm seasons (2016–2024) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains region. By separating events based on local L-A coupling signals and characterizing the profiles of atmospheric heat and moisture to surface energy flux behavior, we investigate the physical mechanisms linking land surface processes to boundary layer development. We find that during interstorm drydowns, the atmospheric column follows a consistent pattern: moisture increases within the boundary layer, peaks near its top, and declines rapidly above, while warming occurs through the depth. Drydowns that shift toward evaporation produce stronger and deeper thermodynamic responses than cases dominated by sensible heating, which are weaker and shallower. Additionally, moisture is accumulated faster within the boundary layer during shorter drydowns, with longer drydowns representing slower, moisture-limited growth. Drydowns with wetter initial soil moisture will sustain stronger moistening within and above the boundary layer, accelerating buoyancy growth and convective potential toward the next storm. These results provide observational evidence linking surface flux evolution to boundary layer thermodynamics and offer a process-level benchmark for evaluating coupled L-A representations in models and demonstrating the influence of soil moisture on short-term weather forecasting skill.

Zhang, M. S. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lyotropic Liquid Crystal Mediated Assembly of Donor Polymers Enhances Efficiency and Stability of Blade-Coated Organic Solar Cells

Conjugated polymers can undergo complex, concentration-dependent self-assembly during solution processing, yet little is known about its impact on film morphology and device performance of organic solar cells. Herein, lyotropic liquid crystal (LLC) mediated assembly across multiple conjugated polymers is reported, which generally gives rise to improved device performance of blade-coated non-fullerene bulk heterojunction solar cells. Using D18 as a model system, the formation mechanism of LLC is unveiled employing solution X-ray scattering and microscopic imaging tools: D18 first aggregates into semicrystalline nanofibers, then assemble into achiral nematic LLC which goes through symmetry breaking to yield a chiral twist-bent LLC. The assembly pathway is driven by increasing solution concentration – a common driving force during evaporative assembly relevant to scalable manufacturing. This assembly pathway can be largely modulated by coating regimes to give 1) lyotropic liquid crystalline assembly in the evaporation regime and 2) random fiber aggregation pathway in the Landau–Levich regime. The chiral liquid crystalline assembly pathway resulted in films with crystallinity 2.63 times that of films from the random fiber aggregation pathway, significantly enhancing the T80 lifetime by 50-fold. The generality of LLC-mediated assembly and enhanced device performance is further validated using polythiophene and quinoxaline-based donor polymers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Irrigation Impact on Water and Energy Cycle During Dry Years Over the United States Using Convection-Permitting WRF and a Dynamical Recycling Model

In this research, an irrigation scheme is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate irrigation impacts over the Continental U.S. (CONUS). Four major irrigated regions and two downwind regions were chosen to understand irrigation impacts over different climate regimes with a focus on irrigation-induced changes on the water and energy cycles. The Dynamic Recycling Model (DRM) is employed to quantify precipitation induced by irrigation and the precipitation recycling ratios over each irrigated region. With the irrigation scheme, WRF improves the simulated precipitation, surface skin temperature, and energy fluxes compared to reference datasets. For the energy cycle, irrigation increases latent heat flux over the irrigated regions along with reduced sensible heat flux. The evaporative cooling effect induced by irrigation leads to a cooler surface and less outgoing longwave radiation at the surface. Irrigation also intensifies the hydrological cycle over the irrigated regions, reflected by the increased precipitation, evapotranspiration, recycling ratio, and moisture export. Downwind regions exhibit increased precipitation and evaporation, decreased moisture flux divergence, and less consistent variations in recycling ratio. The precipitation increases over the irrigated regions can be partly explained by the more unstable low-level conditions, while reduced net moisture export is coincident with the precipitation increases over the downwind regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reflectivity and spectrum of relativistic flying plasma mirrors

Flying plasma mirrors induced by intense lasers via laser wake field acceleration scheme have been proposed as a promising way to generate few-cycle EUV or x-ray lasers. In addition, if such a relativistic plasma mirror can accelerate, then it would serve as an analog black hole to investigate the information loss paradox associated with the black hole Hawking evaporation. Among these applications, the reflectivity, which is usually frequency-dependent, would affect the outgoing photon spectrum and, therefore, impact on the analysis of the physics under investigation. In this paper, these two issues are investigated analytically and numerically with one-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. Based on our simulation results, we propose a new model that provides a better estimate of the reflectivity than those studied previously. Moreover, we found that the peak frequency of the reflected spectrum of a Gaussian incident wave deviates from the expected value, 4γ 2 ω, due to the dependence of reflectivity on the frequency of the incident wave.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combined Effect of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen Mechanism and Large Eddies on Microphysics of Mixed-Phase Stratiform Clouds

Abstract The process of glaciation in mixed-phase stratiform clouds was investigated by a novel Lagrangian–Eulerian model (LEM) in which thousands of adjoining Lagrangian parcels moved within a turbulent-like velocity field with statistical parameters typical of the Arctic boundary layer. We used detailed bin microphysics to describe the condensation/evaporation processes in each parcel, in which droplets, aerosols, and ice particles were described using size distributions of 500 mass bins. The model also calculated aerosol mass inside droplets and ice particles. Gravitational sedimentation of droplets and ice particles was also accounted for. Assuming that droplet freezing is the primary source of ice particles, the Arctic clouds observed in Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) were successfully simulated. The model showed that at a low ice particle concentration typical of ISDAC, large vortices (eddies) led to a quasi-stationary regime, in which mixed-phase St existed for a long time. The large eddies controlled the water partitioning in the mixed-phase clouds. Droplets formed and grew in updrafts, typically reaching the cloud top, and evaporated in downdrafts. Ice particles grew in updrafts and downdrafts. The Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) mechanism was efficient in downdrafts and some parts of updrafts, depending on ice concentration and vertical velocity. At low ice concentrations, the effect of ice on the phase partitioning was negligible. In this regime, liquid droplets were found near the cloud top, whereas ice particles precipitated through the cloud base. When ice concentration exceeded about 10 L −1 , the WBF mechanism led to glaciation of almost the entire cloud, with the exception of narrow cloud regions associated with strong updrafts. At ice particle concentrations of a few tens per liter, the oscillatory regime took place due to the ice–liquid interaction. The microphysical structure of mixed-phase St forms as a combined effect of cloud dynamics (large eddies) and the WBF mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Capturing Nucleation at 4D Atomic Resolution

Nucleation plays a critical role in many physical and biological phenomena ranging from crystallization, melting and evaporation to the formation of clouds and the initiation of neurodegenerative diseases. However, nucleation is a challenging process to study especially in the early stage when several atoms/molecules start to form a new phase from its parent phase. Here, we advance atomic electron tomography to study early stage nucleation at 4D atomic resolution. Using FePt nanoparticles as a model system, we reveal that early stage nuclei are irregularly shaped, each has a core of a maximum order parameter, and an order parameter gradient points from the core to the boundary of the nucleus. We capture the structure and dynamics of the same nuclei undergoing growth, fluctuation, dissolution, merging and/or division, which are regulated by the distribution of the order parameter and its gradient. These experimental results differ from classical nucleation theory (CNT) and to explain them we propose an order parameter gradient model, which is more general and thermodynamically more favourable than CNT. We further corroborate this model using molecular dynamics simulations of heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation in the liquid-solid phase transition of Pt. Here, we anticipate that the order parameter gradient model is applicable to different kinds of nucleation processes and our experimental method opens the door to study the structure and dynamics of materials with 4D atomic resolution.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Investigation of optical and electrical properties of amorphous Se{sub 95−x}S{sub x}Zn{sub 5}(x=0.2, 2, 5 and 10) thin films

In this study, we reported that the optical and electrical analysis of amorphous Se{sub 90-x}S{sub x}Zn{sub 5} (x=0.2, 2, 5, 10) thin films. Bulk samples of the investigated material were prepared by melt quenching technique. Thin films of ~ 300nm thickness were deposited on cleaned glass substrates by thermal evaporation technique. The morphological study of the investigated material in powder form carried out by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) confirms the disorder of the material increases at lower sulfur doping (up to 5%) whereas at higher (S) doping (10%) the defects of the material decreases. The optical parameters were estimated from optical absorption spectra data measured from UV-Vis-spectrophotometer in the wavelength range 200-900 nm. It was found that the value of optical band gap (E{sub g}) of the investigated thin films decreases up to lower S doping and increases at higher (S) doping. The other optical parameters such as absorption coefficient (α) and extinction coefficient (K) increases up to lower S doping and decreases at higher S doping. This remarkable change in the values of optical parameters was interpreted on the basis of model proposed by Davis and Mott. Electrical parameters of the investigated thin films were carried out in the temperature range 309-370 K. Analysis of data shows activation energy decreases with the increase of concentration of (S) increases up to 5% and at 10% it increases again.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year study period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing ET, but decreasing GEP in summer. We concluded that seasonal dynamics of the interchange between precipitation and drought status of the system was an important variable in controlling seasonal WUE in wet years. In contrast, despite the negative impacts of unfavorable warming, available groundwater and an early start of the growing season were important contributing variables in high seasonal GEP, and thus, high seasonal WUE in dry years. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of Low-Frequency Precipitation Variability in CMIP5 Historical Simulations for Southwestern North America

Drier future conditions are projected for the arid southwest of North America, increasing the chances of the region experiencing severe and prolonged drought. To examine the mechanisms of decadal variability, 47 global climate model historical simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were assessed. On average, the CMIP5 models have higher climatological precipitation over the past century in southwestern North America than current instrumental or reanalysis products. The timing of the winter peak in climatological precipitation over California and Nevada is accurately represented. Models with resolutions coarser than 2° show a larger spread in the location and strength of the North American monsoon ridge and subsequent summer precipitation, in comparison with the higher-resolution models. Less than 20% of decadal variability in wintertime precipitation over California is associated with North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, a larger proportion than is associated with the tropical forcing but not sufficient for making decadal drought predictions. North American monsoon precipitation is strongly associated with local land temperatures on interannual-to-decadal time scales attributable to evaporative cooling and radiation changes driven by varying cloud cover. Soil moisture in Texas and Oklahoma in April is shown to be positively correlated with monsoon precipitation for the following summer, indicating a potential source of nonoceanic interseasonal persistence in southwestern North American hydroclimate. To make meaningful decadal predictions in the future, it is likely that forecasting will move away from sea surface temperature–driven anomaly patterns, and focus on land surface processes, which can allow persistence of precipitation anomalies via feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗