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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Model Advancements to Enable Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Streamflow Temperature

With support from the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed new tools that incorporate cutting-edge climate and hydrological science capabilities to assess the potential long-term impacts of future climate conditions on unregulated streamflow and water temperature within watershed-river-reservoir systems. The objectives of this project were achieved by enhancing key hydrologic and hydrodynamic models and transferring them to a high-performance computing environment to provide a high-spatiotemporal resolution, multi-scale modeling framework. The new modeling framework has the potential to quantify risks related climate change impacts on runoff, unregulated streamflow, and water temperature. Initial development and demonstration of the modeling framework was conducted under historical and future climate conditions in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest and the Connecticut River Basin in New England.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on radiation, clouds, and precipitation over the Amazon: relative importance of aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols can influence regional and global climate through interactions with radiation, clouds, and precipitation. Here, we investigate the impact of BB aerosols on the energy balance and hydrological cycle over the Amazon Basin during the dry season. We performed simulations with a fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), for a range of different BB emission scenarios to explore and characterize nonlinear effects and individual contributions from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). The ARIs of BB aerosols tend to suppress low-level liquid clouds by local warming and increased evaporation and to facilitate the formation of high-level ice clouds by enhancing updrafts and condensation at high altitudes. In contrast, the ACIs of BB aerosol particles tend to enhance the formation and lifetime of low-level liquid clouds by providing more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and to suppress the formation of high-level ice clouds by reducing updrafts and condensable water vapor at high altitudes (>8 km). For scenarios representing the lower and upper limits of BB emission estimates for recent years (2002–2016), we obtained total regional BB aerosol radiative forcings of –0.2 and 1.5 W m –2 , respectively, showing that the influence of BB aerosols on the regional energy balance can range from modest cooling to strong warming. We find that ACIs dominate at low BB emission rates and low aerosol optical depth (AOD), leading to an increased cloud liquid water path (LWP) and negative radiative forcing, whereas ARIs dominate at high BB emission rates and high AOD, leading to a reduction of LWP and positive radiative forcing. In all scenarios, BB aerosols led to a decrease in the frequency of occurrence and rate of precipitation, caused primarily by ACI effects at low aerosol loading and by ARI effects at high aerosol loading. The dependence of precipitation reduction on BB aerosol loading is greater in a strong convective regime than under weakly convective conditions. Overall, our results show that ACIs tend to saturate at high aerosol loading, whereas the strength of ARIs continues to increase and plays a more important role in highly polluted episodes and regions. This should hold not only for BB aerosols over the Amazon, but also for other light-absorbing aerosols such as fossil fuel combustion aerosols in industrialized and densely populated areas. The importance of ARIs at high aerosol loading highlights the need for accurately characterizing aerosol optical properties in the investigation of aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Point-scale organic-matter decomposition in streambeds is weakly associated with reach-scale respiration

Stream and river ecosystems play a central role in the movement and decomposition of particulate organic matter, serving as a conduit between terrestrial hillslopes and coastal environments. Microbial-catalyzed decomposition generates simpler organic molecules that fuel respiration, often in the sediments of these ecosystems. However, the degree of connection between sediment-associated respiration (ER??d) and organic-matter decomposition remains poorly understood. How that relationship compares to decomposition’s relationship with whole ecosystem (ERtot) and water column (ERwc) respiration is also not clear. We examined the link between particulate organic matter decomposition—using cellulose-based cotton strips as a standardized substrate—and all three components of respiration across 48 sites in the environmentally diverse Yakima River Basin (Washington State, USA). We hypothesized that decomposition within sediments would be most strongly related to ERsed, but decomposition rates were more closely associated with ERtot, with little connection to ERsed or ERwc. This suggests that particulate organic matter decomposition within stream/river sediments reflects integrated system respiration rather than processes confined to sediments or the water column alone. Further, across the basin, decomposition rates nearly spanned the previously reported global range for streams and rivers and were best explained by total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), sediment grain size, and aridity of the upstream drainage area. These results highlight the strong influence of land cover and basin-scale biophysical variation on sediment-associated decomposition processes and indicate that mechanistic models of organic matter decomposition in streams/rivers should account for coupled sediment–water–land interactions.

Stegen, James C. (ORCID:0000000191357424)↗

Surface Water: Stage, Temperature and Discharge, Teller Road Mile Marker 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2016-2021

Surface water data were collected at one location in the Teller Mile 27 (TL_MM27) Research Basin Site, Seward Peninsula (N64 43' 35.29649", W165 56' 48.42823"). The site was installed and measurements collected from April 2016 to September 2021. During the pandemic, a combination of environmental factors (both animals and climate) led to a gap in the data record from late 2019 to June 2021. Station restarted in June 2021 with the same basin outlet and instrumentation type. These data are being collected to better understand the hydrology of this research basin. The data could also be used as supporting measurements for other research and modeling activities. Stream stage and water temperature are measured every 10 minutes. Discharge in the stream is also measured every site visit using one of two different methods. Most discharge measurements in this data set use the classic US Geological Survey (USGS) style wading rod to measure water velocity at multiple points (every 5 or 10 centimeters) across a known cross-section (https://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/tm3-a8/pdf/tm3-a8.pdf). The second method is the salt-slug mass diffusion method (https://www.uvm.edu/bwrl/lab_docs/protocols/2005_Moore_Slug_salt_dilution_gauging_volumetric_method_Streamline.pdf). Combining the continuous data record with the discrete observations, a stage-discharge relationship was developed. Dataset contains 14 *.csv files including a data dictionary and file-level metadata plus one user guide *.pdf file. DATASET UPDATE: The 2016-2019 data were published in 2019. Data collection continued through 2021 and were added to the dataset in 2025. There were no changes to the 2016-2019 data. Data files now have all years for a measurement combined into one file; whereas before, each measurement and each year had an individual file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismically induced modification of lunar surface features

The formation of large impact craters and basins produced not only large volumes of ejecta but also catastrophic seismic waves. Theoretical models, extrapolation of terrestrial explosion data, and extrapolation of lunar impact data suggest surface displacements of 1-10 m at four crater radii from a Copernicus-size impact (4 x 10 to the 30th power ergs). Independent estimates of impact-generated stresses indicate that regions within 4 crater radii of an impact will receive shock waves with pressures exceeding 1 kbar. Greater areas also may receive shock effects as elastic waves following deep ray paths transform into shock waves near the surface. Additional seismic energy will be generated by impacts from secondary ejecta. The resulting large and long-lasting surface movement may contribute to the subdued appearance of the continuous ejecta blanket and secondary craters around large impact craters and to the degradation of small craters outside these zones.

Schultz, P. H.↗

Geology and deposits of the lunar Nectaris basin

The geology and composition of Nectaris basin deposits have been investigated in order to provide information on the lunar basin-forming process and the regional geologic setting of the Apollo 16 landing site. Several outcrops of nearly pure anorthosite were noted in locations such as the walls of Kant crater, an inner ring of the basin, and the crater Bohnenberger F. The results suggest that the impact can be modeled as a proportional-growth crater, and that the Nectaris excavation cavity was about 470 km in diameter and as deep as 55 km.

Spudis, P. D.↗

Sea ice-atmosphere interaction: Application of multispectral satellite data in polar surface energy flux estimates

The application of multi-spectral satellite data to estimate polar surface energy fluxes is addressed. To what accuracy and over which geographic areas large scale energy budgets can be estimated are investigated based upon a combination of available remote sensing and climatological data sets. The general approach was to: (1) formulate parameterization schemes for the appropriate sea ice energy budget terms based upon the remotely sensed and/or in-situ data sets; (2) conduct sensitivity analyses using as input both natural variability (observed data in regional case studies) and theoretical variability based upon energy flux model concepts; (3) assess the applicability of these parameterization schemes to both regional and basin wide energy balance estimates using remote sensing data sets; and (4) assemble multi-spectral, multi-sensor data sets for at least two regions of the Arctic Basin and possibly one region of the Antarctic. The type of data needed for a basin-wide assessment is described and the temporal coverage of these data sets are determined by data availability and need as defined by parameterization scheme. The titles of the subjects are as follows: (1) Heat flux calculations from SSM/I and LANDSAT data in the Bering Sea; (2) Energy flux estimation using passive microwave data; (3) Fetch and stability sensitivity estimates of turbulent heat flux; and (4) Surface temperature algorithm.

Steffen, K.↗

A Review of Magnetic Anomaly Field Data for the Arctic Region: Geological Implications

Due to its inaccessibility and hostile physical environment remote sensing data, both airborne and satellite measurements, has been the main source of geopotential data over the entire Arctic region. Ubiquitous and significant external fields, however, hinder crustal magnetic field studies. These potential field data have been used to derive tectonic models for the two major tectonic sectors of this region, the Amerasian and Eurasian Basins. The latter is dominated by the Nansen-Gakkel or Mid-Arctic Ocean Ridge and is relatively well known. The origin and nature of the Alpha and Mendeleev Ridges, Chukchi Borderland and Canada Basin of the former are less well known and a subject of controversy. The Lomonosov Ridge divides these large provinces. In this report we will present a summary of the Arctic geopotential anomaly data derived from various sources by various groups in North America and Europe and show how these data help us unravel the last remaining major puzzle of the global plate tectonic framework. While Magnetic anomaly data represent the main focus of this study recently derived satellite gravity data (Laxon and McAdoo, 1998) are playing a major role in Arctic studies.

Taylor, Patrick T.↗

A Review of Magnetic Anomaly Field Data for the Arctic Region: Geological Implications

Due to its inaccessibility and hostile physical environment remote sensing data, both airborne and satellite measurements, has been the main source of geopotential data over the entire Arctic region. Ubiquitous and significant external fields, however, hinder crustal magnetic field studies These potential field data have been used to derive tectonic models for the two major tectonic sectors of this region, the Amerasian and Eurasian Basins. The latter is dominated by the Nansen-Gakkel or Mid-Arctic Ocean Ridge and is relatively well known. The origin and nature of the Alpha and Mendeleev Ridges, Chukchi Borderland and Canada Basin of the former are less well known and a subject of controversy. The Lomonosov Ridge divides these large provinces. In this report we will present a summary of the Arctic geopotential anomaly data derived from various sources by various groups in North America and Europe and show how these data help us unravel the last remaining major puzzle of the global plate tectonic framework. While magnetic anomaly data represent the main focus of this study recently derived satellite gravity data are playing a major role in Arctic studies.

Taylor, Patrick T.↗

"The Waters of Meridiani" - Further Support for a Fluvial Interpretation of the Ridged, Layered Units

A relatively unknown terrestrial fluvial environment, the mesoscale megafan, provides analogs for various Martian landscapes, including the etched unit (etched unit, Unite E of Arvidson et al., 2003; ridge-forming unit R of Edgett, 2005) of the Sinus Meridiani region on Mars. A global survey of Earth shows that megafans are very large partial cones of dominantly fluvial sediment with radii on the order of hundreds of km, and very low slopes. Responsible fluvial processes are sufficiently different from those of classical arid alluvial fans and deltas that it is useful to class megafans as separate features. The megafan model calls into question two commonly held ideas. 1. Earth examples prove that topographic basins per se are unnecessary for the accumulation of large sedimentary bodies. 2. River channels are by no means restricted to valleys (Meridiani sediments are termed a "valley-ed volume" of Edgett). These perspectives reveal unexpected parallels with features at Meridiani-several channel-like features that are widespread, mostly as ridges inverted by eolian erosion; channel networks covering thousands of sq km, especially on intercrater plains; and regional relationships of sediment bodies situated immediately downstream of highland masses. These all suggest that fluvial explanations are at least part of the Meridiani story.

Wilkinson, Justin↗

Channel Water Storage Anomaly: A New Remotely Sensed Quantity for Global River Analysis

River channels store large volumes of water globally, critically impacting ecological and biogeochemical processes. Despite the importance of river channel storage, there is not yet an observational constraint on this quantity. We introduce a 26-year record of entirely remotely sensed volumetric channel water storage (CWS) change on 26 major world rivers. We find mainstem volumetric CWS climatology amplitude (CA) represents an appreciable amount of basin-wide terrestrial water storage variability (median 2.78%, range 0.04%–12.54% across world rivers), despite mainstem rivers themselves represent an average of just 0.2% of basin area. We find that two global river routing schemes coupled with land surface models reasonably approximate CA (within ±50%) in only 11.5% (CaMa-Flood) and 30.7% (HyMap) of rivers considered. These findings demonstrate volumetric CWS is a useful quantity for assessing global hydrological model performance, and for advancing understanding of spatial patterns in global hydrology.

Stephen Coss↗

Updated weather model captures subtleties of cold-air pool events

Imagine cold air building up inside a valley or other topographic basin, like a cold swimming pool in the atmosphere. Known in meteorology as cold-air pools, or simply cold pools, these events affect wind plant power production in two key ways. Because they are associated with stagnant air and low winds near the ground, cold pools can severely limit wind energy output over periods of hours to days. Then, when cold pools dissolve, known as cold pool “erosion,” increased wind speeds allow wind power production to recover.

Energy↗

Towards replacing physical testing of granular materials with a Topology-based Model

In the study of packed granular materials, the performance of a sample (e.g., the detonation of a high-energy explosive) often correlates to measurements of a fluid flowing through it. The “effective surface area,” the surface area accessible to the airflow, is typically measured using a permeametry apparatus that relates the flow conductance to the permeable surface area via the Carman-Kozeny equation. This equation allows calculating the flow rate of a fluid flowing through the granules packed in the sample for a given pressure drop. However, Carman-Kozeny makes inherent assumptions about tunnel shapes and flow paths that may not accurately hold in situations where the particles possess a wide distribution in shapes, sizes, and aspect ratios, as is true with many powdered systems of technological and commercial interest. To address this challenge, we replicate these measurements virtually on micro-CT images of the powdered material, introducing a new Pore Network Model based on the skeleton of the Morse-Smale complex. Pores are identified as basins of the complex, their incidence encodes adjacency, and the conductivity of the capillary between them is computed from the cross-section at their interface. We build and solve a resistive network to compute an approximate laminar fluid flow through the pore structure. Here, we provide two means of estimating flow-permeable surface area: (i) by direct computation of conductivity, and (ii) by identifying dead-ends in the flow coupled with isosurface extraction and the application of the Carman-Kozeny equation, with the aim of establishing consistency over a range of particle shapes, sizes, porosity levels, and void distribution patterns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Toward Understanding the Differences between Mesoscale and Large-Eddy Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

In this work, we investigate the ability of mesoscale and large-eddy simulation (LES) model configurations to predict the mean wind speed profile within the boundary layer of tropical cyclones (TCs). To this end, we perform idealized simulations of five hypothetical intense storms ranging from categories 1 to 5 on the Saffir–Simpson scale and extract time-averaged quantities near the eyewall region. We compare the model-generated data against mean wind speed profiles compiled from dropsondes launched from reconnaissance aircraft operating in the North Atlantic basin. Our analysis shows that mesoscale- and LES-generated mean wind fields display important differences in the boundary layer, including the magnitude of shear as well as the height where their low-level wind speed maxima are located. In addition, a comparison between the two model configurations with the dropsonde data shows that both modeling approaches are unable to capture the typical structure of mean winds in the lower part of the TC boundary layer (10–500 m), calling into question the use of simulations of near-axisymmetric storms for investigating the wind structure of past events. To better understand these differences, we conduct a momentum-budget analysis and show that modeled turbulent fluxes are underestimated in the mesoscale boundary layer parameterization compared to the LES model. Based on the analysis of the horizontal turbulent fluxes and their potential impact on mean flow quantities, a TC-specific boundary layer parameterization may be needed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mega-Impacts on Mars: Implications for the Late Heavy Bombardment in the Inner Solar System, and the Early Evolution of the Earth and Mars

There are about 30 very large impact basins on Mars, > 1000 km in diameter, most of which are revealed by their topographic and/or crustal thickness signatures. Crater retention ages and model absolute ages suggest these all formed in a relatively short time (100-200 million years?), perhaps during a "Late Heavy Bombardment" (LHB) caused by the evolution of the orbits of the giant planets. This so-called "Nice Model" of planetary formation may explain the LHB on the Moon at about 3.9 billion years ago and would have produced a similar bombardment throughout the inner solar system. The formation of 30 very large impact basins would have had catastrophic environmental consequences for Mars, which were further complicated by the demise of the global magnetic field at about the same time. If there are no very large basins on Mars older than the 30 we see and the LHB really lasted everywhere only a short time, there may have been a relatively longer time (~400 million years?) during which Mars and the Earth suffered no major impact trauma and during which conditions on both worlds may have been far more habitable than during the LHB. However, if the formation of the Mars crustal dichotomy was due to an even larger giant impact that predated the very large basins, all record of this earlier and possibly more clement time on Mars may have been erased. Ages of the smaller but still very large basins can be used to approximately date the giant impact (if it occurred). Even the very large basins appear to have reset the crater retention ages of the entire crust of Mars and may have by themselves erased any record of an earlier time.

Frey, Herbert↗

The Critical Role of the Routing Scheme in Simulating Peak River Discharge in Global Hydrological Models

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge which is crucial in flood simulations has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a) project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood (Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain). The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC (Global Runoff Data Centre) stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about two-thirds of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

peak river discharge↗

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling↗