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Selecting samples of galaxies with fewer Fingers-of-God

The radial positions of galaxies inferred from their measured redshift appear distorted due to their peculiar velocities. We argue that the contribution from stochastic velocities — which gives rise to `Fingers-of-God' (FoG) anisotropy in the inferred maps — does not lend itself to perturbative modelling already on scales targeted by current experiments. To get around this limitation, we propose to remove FoG using data-driven indicators of their abundance that are local in nature and thus avoid selection biases. In particular, we show that the scale where the measured power spectrum quadrupole changes sign is tightly anti-correlated with both the satellite fraction and the velocity dispersion, and can thus be used to select galaxy samples with fewer FoG. In addition, we show that excluding galaxies in haloes more massive than a given mass threshold can help to discard many of the most problematic galaxies. Such selection could be achieved in practice using maps of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich distortion of the cosmic microwave background frequency spectrum. These techniques could potentially improve reconstructions of the large-scale velocity and displacement fields from the redshift-space positions of galaxies. They may also extend the reach of perturbative models for galaxy clustering, though in practice we find only marginal gains when fitting one-loop EFTofLSS models to simulations with mitigated FoG due to the relevance of other effects entering at two-loop order.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

The Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: measurement of the BAO and growth rate of structure of the emission line galaxy sample from the anisotropic power spectrum between redshift 0.6 and 1.1

We analyse the large-scale clustering in Fourier space of emission line galaxies (ELG) from the Data Release 16 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. The ELG sample contains 173,736 galaxies covering 1,170 square degrees in the redshift range 0.6 < z < 1.1. We perform a BAO measurement from the post-reconstruction power spectrum monopole, and study redshift space distortions (RSD) in the first three even multipoles. Furthermore, photometric variations yield fluctuations of both the angular and radial survey selection functions. Those are directly inferred from data, imposing integral constraints which we model consistently. The full data set has only a weak preference for a BAO feature (1.4σ). At the effective redshift zeff = 0.845 we measure $D_{\rm V}(z_{\rm eff})/r_{\rm drag} = 18.33_{-0.62}^{+0.57}$, with DV the volume-averaged distance and rdrag the comoving sound horizon at the drag epoch. In combination with the RSD measurement, at zeff = 0.85 we find $f\sigma _8(z_{\rm eff}) = 0.289_{-0.096}^{+0.085}$, with f the growth rate of structure and σ8 the normalisation of the linear power spectrum, $D_{\rm H}(z_{\rm eff})/r_{\rm drag} = 20.0_{-2.2}^{+2.4}$ and DM(zeff)/rdrag = 19.17 ± 0.99 with DH and DM the Hubble and comoving angular distances, respectively. These results are in agreement with those obtained in configuration space, thus allowing a consensus measurement of fσ8(zeff) = 0.315 ± 0.095, $D_{\rm H}(z_{\rm eff})/r_{\rm drag} = 19.6_{-2.1}^{+2.2}$ and DM(zeff)/rdrag = 19.5 ± 1.0. This measurement is consistent with a flat ΛCDM model with Planck parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disentangling Sources of Gene Tree Discordance in Phylogenomic Data Sets: Testing Ancient Hybridizations in Amaranthaceae s.l

Gene tree discordance in large genomic data sets can be caused by evolutionary processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization, as well as model violation, and errors in data processing, orthology inference, and gene tree estimation. Species tree methods that identify and accommodate all sources of conflict are not available, but a combination of multiple approaches can help tease apart alternative sources of conflict. Here, using a phylotranscriptomic analysis in combination with reference genomes, we test a hypothesis of ancient hybridization events within the plant family Amaranthaceae s.l. that was previously supported by morphological, ecological, and Sanger-based molecular data. The data set included seven genomes and 88 transcriptomes, 17 generated for this study. We examined gene-tree discordance using coalescent-based species trees and network inference, gene tree discordance analyses, site pattern tests of introgression, topology tests, synteny analyses, and simulations. We found that a combination of processes might have generated the high levels of gene tree discordance in the backbone of Amaranthaceae s.l. Furthermore, we found evidence that three consecutive short internal branches produce anomalous trees contributing to the discordance. Overall, our results suggest that Amaranthaceae s.l. might be a product of an ancient and rapid lineage diversification, and remains, and probably will remain, unresolved. This work highlights the potential problems of identifiability associated with the sources of gene tree discordance including, in particular, phylogenetic network methods. Our results also demonstrate the importance of thoroughly testing for multiple sources of conflict in phylogenomic analyses, especially in the context of ancient, rapid radiations. We provide several recommendations for exploring conflicting signals in such situations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

First Measurement of Missing Energy due to Nuclear Effects in Monoenergetic Neutrino Charged-Current Interactions

We present the first measurement of the missing energy due to nuclear effects in monoenergetic, muon neutrino charged-current interactions on carbon, originating from 𝐾 + → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜈 𝜇 decay at rest (𝐸 𝜈 𝜇 = 235.5 MeV), performed with the J-PARC Sterile Neutrino Search at the J-PARC Spallation Neutron Source liquid scintillator based experiment. Toward characterizing the neutrino interaction, ostensibly 𝜈 𝜇 ⁢𝑛 → 𝜇 − ⁢𝑝 or 𝜈 𝜇 ⁢ 12 C → 𝜇 − ⁢ 12 N, we define the missing energy as the energy transferred to the nucleus (𝜔) minus the kinetic energy of the outgoing proton(s), 𝐸 𝑚 ≡ 𝜔−∑ 𝑇 𝑝 , and relate this to visible energy in the detector, 𝐸 𝑚 = 𝐸 𝜈 𝜇 ⁡(235.5 MeV) − 𝑚 𝜇⁡ (105.7 MeV) + [𝑚 𝑛 − 𝑚 𝑝⁡ (1.3 MeV)] − 𝐸 vis . The missing energy, which is naively expected to be zero in the absence of nuclear effects (e.g., nucleon separation energy, Fermi momenta, and final-state interactions), is uniquely sensitive to many aspects of the interaction, and has previously been inaccessible with neutrinos. The shape-only, differential cross section measurement reported, based on a (77 ± 3)% pure double-coincidence kaon decay-at-rest signal (621 total events), provides detailed insight into neutrino-nucleus interactions, allowing even the nuclear orbital shell of the struck nucleon to be inferred. The measurement provides an important benchmark for models and event generators at hundreds of MeV neutrino energies, characterized by the difficult-to-model transition region between neutrino-nucleus and neutrino-nucleon scattering, and relevant for applications in nuclear physics, neutrino oscillation measurements, and Type-II supernova studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Understanding and Estimating Error Propagation in Neural Networks for Scientific Data Analysis

Neural networks are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery, where input data reduction and model quantization play a key role in accelerating inference. However, understanding and mitigating the impact of these techniques on output error is critical for ensuring reliable results, particularly in tasks demanding high numerical precision. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing neural network inference in scientific computing by combining data reduction and weight quantization while maintaining error-controlled outcomes. We develop theoretical analyses to bound error propagation under these reductions and propose a framework that balances computational performance with error constraints. Evaluation on real-world learning-based combustion simulations and satellite image classification demonstrates that our derived error bounds accurately predict observed errors while enabling significant computational speedup under our framework. This work highlights the potential for further leveraging advancements in modern lossy compression algorithms and hardware accelerators that support lower-precision formats.

He, Weiming [New Jersey Institute of Technology]↗

GP-BayesOpInf

SAND2025-01851O GP-BayesOpInf is a software tool that uses algorithms to combine Gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, and linear Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic reduced-order model for time-dependent systems. Numerical examples include the compressible Euler equations for an ideal gas, a heat diffusion process with a nonlinear reaction term, and a set of ordinary differential equations describing a compartmental model in epidemiology. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

GP Cosmology Surrogate v1.0

GP Cosmology Surrogate is a Python library for building and training a generalized multi-output Gaussian process (GP) framework of @takhtaganov2021cosmic. In this approach, the surrogate is constructed sequentially, guided by a Bayesian optimization acquisition function that targets reduction of emulation error in the regions most consistent with the observational data. This adaptive design concentrates computational resources where they have the greatest impact on inference accuracy. The library supports efficient training for separable GP kernels, which allows the use of Kronecker algebra to handle high-dimensional input spaces and large numbers of correlated outputs. This makes it well suited for applications such as modeling cosmological power spectra, large-scale physical simulations, and multi-output hyperparameter tuning. By combining scalable multi-output GP modeling with data-driven adaptive sampling, GPsurrogate enables parameter inference and optimization with substantially fewer simulations than conventional space-filling designs.

Lukic, Zarija [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Observation of interspecies ion separation in inertial-confinement-fusion implosions

Here we report direct experimental evidence of interspecies ion separation in direct-drive, inertial-confinement-fusion experiments on the OMEGA laser facility. These experiments, which used plastic capsules with D 2 /Ar gas fill (1% Ar by atom), were designed specifically to reveal interspecies ion separation by exploiting the predicted, strong ion thermo-diffusion between ion species of large mass and charge difference. Via detailed analyses of imaging x-ray-spectroscopy data, we extract Ar-atom-fraction radial profiles at different times, and observe both enhancement and depletion compared to the initial 1%-Ar gas fill. The experimental results are interpreted with radiation-hydrodynamic simulations that include recently implemented, first-principles models of interspecies ion diffusion. Finally, the experimentally inferred Ar-atom-fraction profiles agree reasonably, but not exactly, with calculated profiles associated with the incoming and rebounding first shock.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

New machine learning techniques for simulation-based inference: InferoStatic nets, kernel score estimation, and kernel likelihood ratio estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

Kong, Kyoungchul↗

Codebase release 0.1 for infstat

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

Kong, Kyoungchul↗

Kinetic Modeling and Experimental Studies of Capacitively Coupled Macro- and Microplasmas at Microwave Frequencies

The effect of driving frequency in the range of 13.56 MHz to 73 MHz on electron energy distribution and electron heating modes in a 50 mTorr capacitively coupled argon plasma discharge is studied using 1D-3V particle-in-cell simulations. Calculated electron energy probability functions exhibit three distinct temperatures for low-, mid-, and high-energy electrons at all the studied driving frequencies. When compared to published experimental data, the calculated probability functions show a reasonable agreement for the energy range resolved in the measurements (about 2 eV to 10 eV). Discrepancies due to limitations in experimental energy resolution outside this range lead to differences between computational and experimental values of the electron number density determined from the distribution functions, and the predicted effective electron temperature is within 25 % of experimental values. The impedance of the discharge is interpreted in terms of a homogeneous equivalent circuit model and the driving frequency dependence of the inferred combined sheath thickness is found to obey a known, theoretically-derived, power law. The average power transferred from the field to the electrons (electron heating) is computed, and a region of negative heating near the sheath edge, particularly at higher driving frequencies, is identified. Analysis of the electron momentum equation shows that electron inertia, which on temporal averaging would be zero in a linear regime, is responsible for negative values of power deposition near the sheath edge at high driving frequencies due to the highly nonlinear behavior of the discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Escape Velocity Profile of the Milky Way from Gaia DR3

Abstract The escape velocity profile of the Milky Way offers a crucial and independent measurement of its underlying mass distribution and dark matter (DM) properties. Using a sample of stars from the third data release of Gaia with 6D kinematics and strict quality cuts, we obtain an escape velocity profile of the Milky Way from 4 to 11 kpc in Galactocentric radius. To infer the escape velocity in radial bins, we model the tail of the stellar speed distribution with both traditional power-law models and a new functional form that we introduce. While power-law models tend to rely on extrapolation to high speeds, we find our new functional form gives the most faithful representation of the observed distribution. Using this for the escape velocity profile, we constrain the properties of the Milky Way’s DM halo modeled as a Navarro–Frenck–White profile. Combined with constraints from the circular velocity at the solar position, we obtain a concentration and mass of c 200 c DM = 13.9 − 4.3 + 6.2 and M 200 c DM = 0.55 − 0.14 + 0.15 × 10 12 M ⊙ . This corresponds to a total Milky Way mass of M 200 c = 0.64 − 0.14 + 0.15 × 10 12 M ⊙ , which is on the low end of the historic range of the galaxy’s mass, but in line with other recent estimates.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Gravitational-wave and Gravitational-wave Memory Signatures of Core-collapse Supernovae

Abstract In this paper, we calculate the energy, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), detection range, and angular anisotropy of the matter, matter memory, and neutrino memory gravitational-wave (GW) signatures of 21 three-dimensional initially nonrotating core-collapse supernova (CCSN) models carried to late times. We find that inferred energy, SNR, and detection range are angle-dependent quantities, and that the spread of possible energy, signal to noise, and detection ranges across all viewing angles generally increases with progenitor mass. When examining the low-frequency matter memory and neutrino memory components of the signal, we find that the neutrino memory is the most detectable component of a CCSN GW signal, and that DECIGO is best equipped to detect both matter memory and neutrino memory. Moreover, we find that the polarization angle between the h + and h × strains serves as a unique identifier of matter and neutrino memory. Finally, we develop a Galactic density- and stellar mass-weighted formalism to calculate the rate at which we can expect to detect CCSN GW signals with the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (aLIGO). When considering only the matter component of the signal, the aLIGO detection rate is around 65% of the total Galactic supernova rate, but increases to 90% when incorporating the neutrino memory component. We find that all future detectors (Einstein Telescope, Cosmic Explorer, DECIGO) will be able to detect CCSN GW signals from the entire Galaxy, and for the higher-mass progenitors even into the Local Group of galaxies.

Choi, Lyla (ORCID:0000000153860133)↗

First Temperature Profile of a Stellar Flare Using Differential Chromatic Refraction

We present the first derivation of a stellar flare temperature profile from single-band photometry. Stellar flare DWF 030225.574−545707.45129 was detected in 2015 by the Dark Energy Camera as part of the Deeper, Wider, Faster program. The brightness (Δm g = −6.12) of this flare, combined with the high air mass (1.45 ≲ X ≲ 1.75) and blue filter (DES g, 398–548 nm) in which it was observed, provided ideal conditions to measure the zenithward apparent motion of the source due to differential chromatic refraction (DCR) and, from that, infer the effective temperature of the event. We model the flare’s spectral energy distribution as a blackbody to produce the constraints on flare temperature and geometric properties derived from single-band photometry. We additionally demonstrate how simplistic assumptions on the flaring spectrum, as well as on the evolution of flare geometry, can result in solutions that overestimate the effective temperature. Exploiting DCR enables studying chromatic phenomena with ground-based astrophysical surveys, and stellar flares on M dwarfs are a particularly enticing target for such studies due to their ubiquity across the sky and the heightened color contrast between their red quiescent photospheres and the blue flare emission. Our novel method will enable similar temperature constraints for a large sample of objects in upcoming photometric surveys like the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Clarke, Riley W. [University of Delaware, Newark, ↗

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Zooming in with the Hubble Space Telescope

AT2025ulz is an optical/near-infrared transient discovered during follow-up of the candidate gravitational wave (GW) event S250818k. Its young age (≲1 day), rapid decline, and strong color evolution over the first 48 hr classify it as a potential kilonova candidate. In this work, we present the results of our observing campaign, carried out with the Gran Telescopio Canarias and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Although the early time evolution of AT2025ulz resembles some aspects of a kilonova, its rapid onset (∼3 hr after the GW trigger) and luminosity (a factor of ∼5 brighter than AT2017gfo in g band) are difficult to reproduce. Only a small subset of our kilonova models matches its multicolor light curve, and the inferred ejecta mass is uncomfortably large given the low chirp mass (≲0.87 M ⊙ ) of the GW candidate. HST observations place the transient within a nearby (z = 0.08489) spiral galaxy with ongoing star formation and measure a color (F336W − F160W ≈ 1.4 mag) that is too blue to match with a kilonova. Our data support the classification of AT2025ulz as a supernova, initially undergoing a shock-cooling phase and later entering its photospheric phase and spectroscopically identified via its broad absorption features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deep Interactive Learning with Sharkzor

Sharkzor is a web application for machine-learning assisted image sort and summary. Deep learning algorithms are leveraged to infer, augment, and automate the user’s mental model. Initially, images uploaded by the user are spread out on a canvas. The user then interacts with the images to impute their mental model into the applications algorithmic underpinnings. Methods of interaction within Sharkzor’s user interface and user experience support three primary user tasks: triage, organize and automate. The user triages the large pile of overlapping images by moving images of interest into proximity. The user then organizes said images into meaningful groups. After interacting with the images and groups, deep learning helps to automate the user’s interactions. The loop of interaction, automation, and response by the user allows the system to quickly make sense of large amounts of data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

New Machine Learning Techniques for Simulation-Based Inference: InferoStatic Nets, Kernel Score Estimation, and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential $\varphi$. In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗