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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Kinetic simulations and reduced modeling of longitudinal sideband instabilities in non-linear electron plasma waves

Kinetic Vlasov simulations of one-dimensional finite amplitude Electron Plasma Waves are performed in a multi-wavelength long system. A systematic study of the most unstable linear sideband mode, in particular its growth rate γ and quasi- wavenumber δk, is carried out by scanning the amplitude and wavenumber of the initial wave. Simulation results are successfully compared against numerical and analytical solutions to the reduced model by Kruer et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 23, 838 (1969)] for the Trapped Particle Instability (TPI). A model recently suggested by Dodin et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 215006 (2013)], which in addition to the TPI accounts for the so-called Negative Mass Instability because of a more detailed representation of the trapped particle dynamics, is also studied and compared with simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of RMS Current in CSI Filter Capacitor and Minimum Conduction Loss Operation of CSI-Fed PMSM Drives for Traction Applications

This paper presents a new minimum conduction loss (MCL) torque control algorithm for current source inverter- (CSI-) fed permanent-magnet synchronous machine drives that improves the overall machine drive efficiency by minimizing the combined conduction losses in the inverter and machine at each operating point. First, analytical models of conduction losses in CSI-fed motor drives are presented, and a closed-form expression for optimal d-axis stator current to achieve MCL operation is derived. An expression for the rms current in both wye- and delta-connected CSI output capacitors is derived. A detailed simulation model that emulates the operation of a 100 kW SiC CSI-fed integrated machine drive (IMD) has been developed based on experimental results and finite element analysis. This simulation model is used to evaluate the proposed MCL control algorithm applied to a CSI-fed IMD system for a battery-electric vehicle traction drive, and the predicted total drive system loss with MCL control is compared to predicted losses with maximum-torque-per-ampere (MTPA) and minimum dc-link current (MDCC) control. Results show that MCL control can achieve loss reductions compared to the other two control algorithms over a wide range of operating conditions, with significant loss reductions >20% in the medium-speed regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation

The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to climate forcing is of prime importance in assessing its contribution to past and future sea level rise. Surface mass loss occurs during summer, and accounting for temperature seasonality is critical in simulating ice sheet evolution and in interpreting glacial landforms and chronologies. Ice core records constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change but are largely limited to annual mean estimates from the ice sheet interior. In this work, we merge ice core reconstructions with transient climate model simulations to generate Greenland-wide and seasonally resolved surface air temperature fields during the last deglaciation. Greenland summer temperatures peak in the early Holocene, consistent with records of ice core melt layers. We perform deglacial Greenland ice sheet model simulations to demonstrate that accounting for realistic temperature seasonality decreases simulated glacial ice volume, expedites the deglacial margin retreat, mutes the impact of abrupt climate warming, and gives rise to a clear Holocene ice volume minimum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Engineering Fe–Fe3C@Fe–N–C Active Sites and Hybrid Structures from Dual Metal–Organic Frameworks for Oxygen Reduction Reaction in H2–O2 Fuel Cell and Li–O2 Battery

Dual metal-organic frameworks (MOFs, i.e., MIL-100(Fe) and ZIF-8) are thermally converted into Fe-Fe3C-embedded Fe-N-codoped carbon as platinum group metal (PGM)-free oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts. Pyrolysis enables imidazolate in ZIF-8 rearranged into highly N-doped carbon, while Fe from MIL-100(Fe) into N-ligated atomic sites concurrently with a few Fe-Fe3C nanoparticles. Upon precise control of MOF compositions, the optimal catalyst is highly active for the ORR in half-cells (0.88 V in base and 0.79 V versus RHE in acid in half-wave potential), a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (0.76 W cm(-2) in peak power density) and an aprotic Li-O-2 battery (8749 mAh g(-1) in discharge capacity), representing a state-of-the-art PGM-free ORR catalyst. In the material, amorphous carbon with partial graphitization ensures high active site exposure and fast charge transfer simultaneously. Macropores facilitate mass transport to the catalyst surface, followed by oxygen penetration in micropores to reach the infiltrated active sites. Further modeling simulations shed light on the true Fe-Fe3C contribution to the catalyst performance, suggesting Fe3C enhances oxygen affinity, while metallic Fe promotes *OH desorption as the rate-determining step at the nearby Fe-N-C sites. These findings demonstrate MOFs as model system for rational design of electrocatalyst for energy-based functional applications.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling of time-lapse seismic monitoring using CO 2 leakage simulations for a model CO 2 storage site with realistic geology: Application in assessment of early leak-detection capabilities

Time-lapse surface seismic surveys have been widely used at carbon sequestration sites for site characterization, monitoring subsurface CO 2 plume migration, and detecting potential CO 2 leakage from a storage reservoir. Monitoring in the first permeable unit directly above the primary seal is important for early detection of CO 2 leakage. Forward modeling of time-lapse seismic data can be used to assess the utility of the seismic method for CO 2 leakage detection. We develop a workflow for forward modeling of time-lapse seismic data, including constructing seismic velocity models using flow simulation outputs, modeling of pre-stack and post-stack synthetic seismic data following seismic data processing sequence and analysis of processed synthetic time-lapse seismic data. We apply the forward modeling and analysis workflow to assessing the detectability and the earliest detection time of seismic monitoring using the hypothetical CO 2 leakage scenarios for a model geologic storage site with realistic geology. We then derive the detection thresholds using the simulated normalized root-mean-square (NRMS) differences for the no-leakage case at a range of signal-to-noise ratios, representing the background noise levels in seismic data. We then compare NRMS differences triggered by the CO 2 leakage to the detection thresholds at each time step to quantify the detectability and the earliest detection time of seismic monitoring. We analyze the effects of the acquisition parameters and elastic parameters on the produced synthetic seismic data and earliest detection time. Our modeling results indicate that high signal-to-noise ratio is needed to detect the CO 2 leakage at the model site. Minimizing the background noise in seismic data is crucial for improving the detectability of the seismic method. Increasing the shot density or increasing the dominant frequency of the source wavelet is likely to increase the possibility of the leakage detection and reduce the time needed for the detection. The elastic parameters used in the rock physics modeling have significant effects on the resultant seismic velocity models and synthetic seismic data, highlighting their critical roles in understanding and interpreting time-lapse seismic reflection data associated with CO 2 monitoring, verification and accounting activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2017

Wave transmission through silicone foam pads in a compression Kolsky bar apparatus. Comparisons between simulations and measurements.

This memo concerns the transmission of mechanical signals through silicone foam pads in a compression Kolsky bar set-up. The results of numerical simulations for four levels of pad pre-compression and two striker velocities were compared directly to test measurements to assess the delity of the simulations. The nite element model simulated the Kolsky tests in their entirety and used the hyperelastic `hyperfoam' model for the silicone foam pads. Calibration of the hyperfoam model was deduced from quasi-static compression data. It was necessary, however, to augment the material model by adding sti ness proportional damping in order to generate results that resembled the experimental measurements. Based on the results presented here, it is important to account for the dynamic behavior of polymeric foams in numerical simulations that involve high loading rates.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Model Catalysts: Simulating the Complexities of Heterogeneous Catalysts

Surface-science investigations have contributed significantly to heterogeneous catalysis in the past several decades. Fundamental studies of reactive systems on metal single crystals have aided researchers in understanding the effect of surface structure on catalyst reactivity and selectivity for a number of important reactions. Recently, model systems, consisting of metal clusters deposited on planar oxide surfaces, have facilitated the study of metal particle-size and support effects. These model systems not only are useful for carrying out kinetic investigations, but are also amenable to surface spectroscopic techniques, thus enabling investigations under realistic pressures and at working temperatures. By combining surface-science characterization methods with kinetic measurements under realistic working conditions, researchers are continuing to advance the molecular-level understanding of heterogeneous catalysis and are narrowing he pressure and material gap between model and real-world catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling and simulation performance of sucker rod beam pump

Artificial lift is a mechanism to lift hydrocarbon, generally petroleum, from a well to surface. This is used in the case that the natural pressure from the reservoir has significantly decreased. Sucker rod beam pumping is a method of artificial lift. Sucker rod beam pump is modeled in this research as a function of geometry of the surface part, the size of sucker rod string, and fluid properties. Besides its length, sucker rod string also classified into tapered and un-tapered. At the beginning of this research, for easy modeling, the sucker rod string was assumed as un-tapered. The assumption proved non-realistic to use. Therefore, the tapered sucker rod string modeling needs building. The numerical solution of this sucker rod beam pump model is computed using finite difference method. The numerical result shows that the peak of polished rod load for sucker rod beam pump unit C-456-D-256-120, for non-tapered sucker rod string is 38504.2 lb, while for tapered rod string is 25723.3 lb. For that reason, to avoid the sucker rod string breaks due to the overload, the use of tapered sucker rod beam string is suggested in this research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Disentangling Mechanisms That Mediate the Balance Between Stochastic and Deterministic Processes in Microbial Succession

Despite growing recognition that deterministic and stochastic factors simultaneously influence bacterial communities, little is known about mechanisms shifting their relative importance. To better understand underlying mechanisms, we developed a conceptual model linking ecosystem development during primary succession to shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. To evaluate the conceptual model we coupled spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions spanning 105 years of salt marsh development. At the local scale there was a progression from stochasticity to determinism due to Na accumulation with increasing ecosystem age, supporting a main element of the conceptual model. At the regional-scale, soil organic matter (SOM) governed the relative influence of stochasticity and the type of deterministic ecological selection, suggesting scale-dependency in how deterministic ecological selection is imposed. Analysis of a new ecological simulation model supported these conceptual inferences. Looking forward, we propose an extended conceptual model that integrates primary and secondary succession in microbial systems.

bacterial succession↗
DOE OSTI2017

A high-resolution and observationally constrained OMI NO 2 satellite retrieval

Here, this work presents a new high-resolution NO 2 dataset derived from the NASA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 version 3.0 retrieval that can be used to estimate surface-level concentrations. The standard NASA product uses NO 2 vertical profile shape factors from a 1.25° × 1° (~110 km × 110 km) resolution Global Model Initiative (GMI) model simulation to calculate air mass factors, a critical value used to determine observed tropospheric NO 2 vertical columns. To better estimate vertical profile shape factors, we use a high-resolution (1.33 km × 1.33 km) Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulation constrained by in situ aircraft observations to recalculate tropospheric air mass factors and tropospheric NO 2 vertical columns during summertime in the eastern US. In this new product, OMI NO 2 tropospheric columns increase by up to 160% in city centers and decrease by 20–50 % in the rural areas outside of urban areas when compared to the operational NASA product. Our new product shows much better agreement with the Pandora NO 2 and Airborne Compact Atmospheric Mapper (ACAM) NO 2 spectrometer measurements acquired during the DISCOVER-AQ Maryland field campaign. Furthermore, the correlation between our satellite product and EPA NO 2 monitors in urban areas has improved dramatically: r 2 = 0.60 in the new product vs. r 2 = 0.39 in the operational product, signifying that this new product is a better indicator of surface concentrations than the operational product. Our work emphasizes the need to use both high-resolution and high-fidelity models in order to recalculate satellite data in areas with large spatial heterogeneities in NO x emissions. Although the current work is focused on the eastern US, the methodology developed in this work can be applied to other world regions to produce high-quality region-specific NO 2 satellite retrievals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design, modeling and simulation of nuclear-powered integrated energy systems with cascaded heating applications

Nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (IES) consist of a variety of energy generation and conversion technologies and can be used to meet heterogeneous end uses (e.g., electricity, heat, and cooling demands). In addition to supply-demand balance, end-use heat demands usually require heat supply of certain temperature ranges. The effective and efficient utilization of heat produced within an IES is, therefore, a critical challenge. Here, this paper examines design options of an IES that includes heating processes of multiple temperature grades. We investigate a cascaded design configuration, where the remaining residual heat after high-grade heating processes [e.g., hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE)] is recovered to meet the low-grade heating needs [e.g., district heating (DH)]. Additionally, a thermal energy storage system is integrated into the DH system to address the imbalance between heat supply and demand. This paper primarily focuses on the design and modeling of the proposed system and evaluates its operation with a 24-h transient process simulation using a DH demand profile with hourly resolution. The results indicate that the residual heat from the HTSE exhaust is insufficient for the DH demand, and additional topping heat directly from the reactor process steam is needed. Furthermore, the inclusion of thermal energy storage within the DH system provides the necessary balance between thermal generation and demand, thereby ensuring a consistent rated temperature of the DH supply water. This approach helps minimize the control actions needed on the reactor side.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling and Simulation of Used Nuclear Fuel During Transportation with Consideration of Hydride Effects and Cyclic Fatigue

The objective of this work is to understand the integrity of Used Nuclear Fuel (UNF) during transportation. Previous analysis work has been performed to look at the integrity of UNF during transportation but these analyses have neglected to analyze the effect of hydrides and flaws (fracture mechanics models to capture radial cracking in the cladding). In this study, the clad regions of interest are near the pellet-pellet interfaces. These regions can experience more complex stress-states than the rest of the clad during cooling and have a greater possibility to develop radially reoriented hydrides during vacuum drying.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗