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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

The ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III competition: Overview and results

In late 2019, ASHRAE hosted the Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) machine learning competition on the Kaggle platform. This launch marked the third energy prediction competition from ASHRAE and the first since the mid-1990s. In this updated version, the competitors were provided with over 20 million points of training data from 2,380 energy meters collected for 1,448 buildings from 16 sources. This competition’s overall objective was to find the most accurate modeling solutions for the prediction of over 41 million private and public test data points. Furthermore, the competition had 4,370 participants, split across 3,614 teams from 94 countries who submitted 39,403 predictions. In addition to the top five winning workflows, the competitors publicly shared 415 reproducible online machine learning workflow examples (notebooks), including over 40 additional, full solutions. This paper gives a high-level overview of the competition preparation and dataset, competitors and their discussions, machine learning workflows and models generated, winners and their submissions, discussion of lessons learned, and competition outputs and next steps. The most popular and accurate machine learning workflows used large ensembles of mostly gradient boosting tree models, such as LightGBM. Similar to the first predictor competition, preprocessing of the data sets emerged as a key differentiator.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Highest Energy HAWC Sources are Likely Leptonic and Powered by Pulsars

The HAWC Collaboration has observed gamma rays at energies above 56 TeV from a collection of nine sources. It has been suggested that this emission could be hadronic in nature, requiring that these systems accelerate cosmic-ray protons or nuclei up to PeV-scale energies. In this paper, we instead show that the spectra of these objects favor a leptonic (inverse Compton) origin for their emission. More specifically, the gamma-ray emission from these objects can be straightforwardly accommodated within a model in which $\sim \mathcal{O}(10\%)$ of the host pulsar's spindown power is transferred into the acceleration of electrons and positrons with a power-law spectrum that extends to several hundred TeV or higher. The spectral break that is observed among these sources is naturally explained within the context of this simple model, and occurs at the energy where the timescale for energy losses matches the age of the pulsar. In contrast, this spectral feature cannot be straightforwardly accommodated in hadronic scenarios. Furthermore, hadronic models predict that these sources should produce more emission at GeV-scale energies than is observed. In light of these considerations, we conclude that HAWC's highest energy sources should be interpreted as TeV halos or pulsar wind nebulae, which produce their emission through inverse Compton scattering, and are powered by the rotational kinetic energy of their host pulsar.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Redshift drift cosmography with ELT and SKAO measurements

ABSTRACT Mapping the expansion history of the universe is a compelling task of physical cosmology, especially in the context of the observational evidence for the recent acceleration of the universe, which demonstrates that canonical theories of cosmology and particle physics are incomplete and that there is new physics still to be discovered. Cosmography is a phenomenological approach to cosmology, where (with some caveats) physical quantities are expanded as a Taylor series in the cosmological redshift z, or analogous parameters such as the rescaled redshift y = z/(1 + z) or the logarithmic redshift x = ln (1 + z). Moreover, the redshift drift of objects following cosmological expansion provides a model-independent observable, detectable by facilities currently under construction, viz. the Extremely Large Telescope and the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (at least in its full configuration). Here, we use simulated redshift drift measurements from the two facilities to carry out an assessment of the cosmological impact and model discriminating power of redshift drift cosmography. We find that the combination of measurements from the two facilities can provide a stringent test of the Λ cold dark matter paradigm, and that overall the logarithmic-based expansions of the spectroscopic velocity drift are the most reliable ones, performing better than analogous expansions in the redshift or the rescaled redshift: the former nominally gives the smaller error bars for the cosmographic coefficients but is vulnerable to biases in the higher order terms (in other words, it is only reliable at low redshifts), while the latter always performs poorly.

Rocha, B. A. R.↗

A spectrophotometric analysis of cool white dwarfs in the Gaia and pan-STARRS footprint

We present a spectrophotometric analysis of 2880 cool white dwarfs within 100 pc of the Sun and cooler than T eff ∼ 10 000 K, with grizy Pan-STARRS photometry and Gaia trigonometric parallaxes available. We also supplement our data sets with near-infrared JHK photometry, when available, which is shown to be essential for interpreting the coolest white dwarfs in our sample. We perform a detailed analysis of each individual object using state-of-the-art model atmospheres appropriate for each spectral type, including DA, DC, DQ, DZ, He-rich DA, and the so-called IR-faint white dwarfs. We discuss the temperature and mass distributions of each subsample, as well as revisit the spectral evolution of cool white dwarfs. We find little evidence in our sample for the transformation of a significant fraction of DA stars into He-atmosphere white dwarfs through the process of convective mixing between T eff = 10 000 and ∼6500 K, although the situation changes drastically in the range T eff = 6500–5500 K where the fraction of He-atmosphere white dwarfs reaches ∼45 per cent. However, we also provide strong evidence that at even cooler temperatures (T eff ≲ 5200 K), most DC white dwarfs have H atmospheres. We discuss a possible mechanism to account for this sudden transformation from He- to H-atmosphere white dwarfs involving the onset of crystallization and the occurrence of magnetism. Finally, we also argue that DQ, DZ, and DC white dwarfs may form a more homogeneous population than previously believed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A general Bayesian algorithm for the autonomous alignment of beamlines

Autonomous methods to align beamlines can decrease the amount of time spent on diagnostics, and also uncover better global optima leading to better beam quality. The alignment of these beamlines is a high-dimensional expensive-to-sample optimization problem involving the simultaneous treatment of many optical elements with correlated and nonlinear dynamics. Bayesian optimization is a strategy of efficient global optimization that has proved successful in similar regimes in a wide variety of beamline alignment applications, though it has typically been implemented for particular beamlines and optimization tasks. In this paper, we present a basic formulation of Bayesian inference and Gaussian process models as they relate to multi-objective Bayesian optimization, as well as the practical challenges presented by beamline alignment. We show that the same general implementation of Bayesian optimization with special consideration for beamline alignment can quickly learn the dynamics of particular beamlines in an online fashion through hyperparameter fitting with no prior information. We present the implementation of a concise software framework for beamline alignment and test it on four different optimization problems for experiments on X-ray beamlines at the National Synchrotron Light Source II and the Advanced Light Source, and an electron beam at the Accelerator Test Facility, along with benchmarking on a simulated digital twin. We discuss new applications of the framework, and the potential for a unified approach to beamline alignment at synchrotron facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Scaling Automatic Vector Data Alignment to Satellite Imagery

Given the tremendous volume of accessible Earth Observation (EO) data, there is a need to develop scalable Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) solutions for time-sensitive applications. Scalability in this context refers to rapidly processing large-scale EO data using high performance computing resources. Accurate mapping of the built environment from remote sensing (RS) imagery has been one of the crucial components in GeoAI workflows for a wide spectrum of humanitarian applications. Derived vector data of built environment is often leveraged for disaster preparedness and response activities. However, factors such as differences in ortho-rectification, atmospheric conditions and human error, results in spatial misalignment between vector data and the timely available RS imagery. Model training for downstream tasks such as object detection, change analysis, etc., is negatively impacted due to such spatial misalignment. Although there has been progress towards automatic alignment of vector data, the lack of scalability remains an open research challenge. This paper proposes to leverage parallel computing to optimize an automatic vector data alignment workflow. It further employs CPU-level multi-core parallelism for improving the performance of the workflow for scalable built environment mapping. We report observations and discuss findings from the preliminary experiments performed on the Summit Supercomputer.

Potnis, Abhishek↗

Characteristics of Muon Computed Tomography of Used Fuel Casks Using Algebraic Reconstruction

Cosmic raymuons passing through matter lose energy from inelastic collisions with electrons and are deflected from nuclei due to multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). The recent developments in position sensitive muon detectors that can measure incoming and outgoing trajectories of individual muons indicate that MCS could be an excellent candidate for spent nuclear fuel imaging. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate tomographic scanning of spent nuclear fuel stored within vertical and horizontal dry storage casks. A quantitative analysis of the characteristics of images obtained with filtered back projection (FBP) and algebraic reconstruction techniques (ART) are presented herein, as such a comparison has not been carried out in the past. FBP is a fast tool to determine object boundaries. ART can include muon path models and prior knowledge that can improve resolution and reduce measurement time. The results demonstrate that missing fuel assemblies can be identified with more than 5 projections and that use of muon momentum significantly increases image resolution. It is expected that MCS can be used to successfully reconstruct the dry cask contents and allow identification of all described scenarios in hours. It is also expected that when total variation minimization and a non-local mean filter are applied, ART may yield much better image quality than FBP.

Liu, Zhengzhi↗

Three dimensions, two microscopes, one code: Automatic differentiation for x-ray nanotomography beyond the depth of focus limit

Conventional tomographic reconstruction algorithms assume that one has obtained pure projection images, involving no within-specimen diffraction effects nor multiple scattering. Advances in x-ray nanotomography are leading toward the violation of these assumptions, by combining the high penetration power of x-rays, which enables thick specimens to be imaged, with improved spatial resolution that decreases the depth of focus of the imaging system. We describe a reconstruction method where multiple scattering and diffraction effects in thick samples are modeled by multislice propagation and the 3D object function is retrieved through iterative optimization. We show that the same proposed method works for both full-field microscopy and for coherent scanning techniques like ptychography. Our implementation uses the optimization toolbox and the automatic differentiation capability of the open-source deep learning package TensorFlow, demonstrating a straightforward way to solve optimization problems in computational imaging with flexibility and portability.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PVcircuit [SWR-22-26]

The software contains objects that are building blocks for PV modeling and interactive data fitting based on: Optoelectronic models for tandem/multijunction solar cells including resistive and luminescent coupling; simulation of modules composed of 2T, 3T, and 4T tandem solar cells; and energy yield analysis of PV systems composed of tandem solar cells.

Geisz, John↗

pas

PAS: Prelim Attention Score for Detecting Object Hallucinations in Large Vision-Language Models

Bhattarai, Manish↗

PVcircuit v0.0.6 [SWR-22-26]

The software contains objects that are building blocks for PV modeling and interactive data fitting based on: Optoelectronic models for tandem/multijunction solar cells including resistive and luminescent coupling; simulation of modules composed of 2T, 3T, and 4T tandem solar cells; and energy yield analysis of PV systems composed of tandem solar cells.

Geisz, John↗

A Succession of Cloud, Precipitation, Aerosol and Air Quality Field Experiments in the Coastal Urban Environment

The interactions and feedbacks among clouds, aerosols, pollutants, and the thermodynamic and kinematic environment remains an area of active research with important implications for our understanding of climate, weather and air quality. These linkages are further complicated in coastal and urban environments where local circulations and anthropogenic influences impact each of these components and their interactions. Within this context, fundamental questions regarding the lifecycle of convective clouds, aerosols and pollutants have brought together a diverse, integrated, and interagency collaboration of scientists to collect and analyze measurements, in the Houston, Texas, area, from the summer of 2021 through the summer of 2022, with subsequent modeling studies to address these important research objectives. Herein, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility and Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Physical and Dynamic Meteorology Program, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Tropospheric Composition Research and Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Programs and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) are collaborating on a joint set of field campaigns to study the interactions of cloud, aerosol, and pollutants within the coastal, urban environment. In the Houston area, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the associated sea breeze circulation generates numerous isolated convective cells, particularly in the summer months, that interact with a variety of urban and industrial emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Google Health Trends performance reflecting dengue incidence for the Brazilian states

Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags. Methods We analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective. Results From the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index. Conclusions The potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

1994 Treasure Coast Travel Characteristics Study

The Treasure Coast Travel Characteristics Study was initiated in January 1995 in order to improve the travel forecasting accuracy of the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model System for this area. The main objective of the surveys was to establish the socioeconomic and travel characteristics of the Treasure Coast Area of Mart, St. Lucie, and Indian River Counties. A total of 1,531 households participated in the study. The household study was separated into multiple parts: one used phone interviews to collect data and another provided travel logs for study participants to fill out, ranging from one- to three-day logs.

1Hz data↗

Relativistic Modeling Capabilities in Perseus Extended MHD Simulation Code for HED Plasmas

This project is submitted in response to DE-FOA-0001153, and will be carried out by Dr. Charles Seyler and Dr. Nathaniel Hamlin as post doc under the direction of Professor Seyler. The objectives are to enable PERSEUS to self-consistently model relativistic high-energy-density (HED) laboratory and astrophysical phenomena. Electrons and ions in a plasma are generally modeled either as fluids using a two-fluid code, like PERSEUS, or as particles using a Particle-In- Cell (PIC) code. Nonrelativistic PERSEUS solves the two-fluid equations, formulated in terms of a generalized Ohm’s law (GOL), so as to model about nine orders of magnitude in density variation using a local semi-implicit method. Relativistic PERSEUS preserves this structure and therefore retains these advantageous properties, enabling it to model a broader range of relativistic HED phenomena than previous codes. We have also overcome a major technical challenge associated with solving a relativistic system of equations relating conserved quantities (momentum, energy, etc.) to primitive variables (density, velocity, and pressure). We have thus far developed a relativistic version of PERSEUS and demonstrated that it recovers expected nonrelativistic results. We are currently using relativistic PERSEUS to model two HED phenomena, namely laser-plasma interactions and X-pinches, both of which show spectroscopic evidence of relativistic electrons. In an X-pinch, a section of wire carrying sufficiently large current forms a plasma column that pinches down to a point-like source, generating X-rays for use in radiographic imaging. Laser-plasma interactions have been simulated using PIC codes, and we use their results as a benchmark for comparison. However, neither PIC codes nor existing two-fluid schemes can simulate X-pinches, due to the broad range of densities which have thus far made such a simulation computationally prohibitive. In both laser-plasma interaction and Xpinch simulations, we have observed relativistic phenomena that PERSEUS could not previously model. This includes relativistic channeling of a laser into an over-dense deuterium gas (i.e. induced transparency), consistent with PIC simulation results, along with energetic electrons and ions following an X-pinch and likely accompanied by strong X-ray emission, consistent with experimental observations of energetic X-rays. This proposal includes our latest simulation results. We will improve computational efficiency with techniques that allow the use of a less refined numerical grid. This will enable extensions to three-dimensional geometries. We will improve modeling of laser-plasma interactions and X-pinches, including radiative transport processes, in order to improve comparisons with PIC simulations and experimental diagnostics. We will also model power loss through electrode surface plasmas in magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs). We will model relativistic astrophysical phenomena in both astrophysical and HED regimes, which could shed light on the validity of laboratory astrophysics for certain problems. These phenomena are currently modeled using PIC codes and existing relativistic two-fluid codes, neither of which can model the range of length scales of which relativistic PERSEUS is capable. There is strong potential for this project to have a broad impact on both the astrophysical and laboratory plasma communities. In the laboratory community, our work is applicable to those concerned with laser-plasma interactions such as laser-driven fusion, and those in the dense Z pinch community concerned with X-pinches and electrode surface plasmas. An improved understanding of the mechanisms of hard (i.e. high-energy) X-ray generation will likely make important contributions toward the use of X-pinches for radiography through the harnessing or mitigation of hard X-rays, depending on the application. The modeling of electrode surface plasmas, including vacuum electron flow, will improve our understanding of power loss to various loads.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Thermionic emission and energy conversion

This project worked on development of a transformative heat-to-electricity conversion device based on thermionic energy conversion. The research provided a unique opportunity to transform the thermionics technology of the 1950-1990s by applying modern materials and 21st century wafer-scale fabrication methods. Research was conducted to further development of a thermionic energy converter based on modern microfabrication and new low work function anode materials that can surpass all other forms of direct heat-to-electricity conversion. This project completed the following goals: (1) Developed components for use in thermionic energy converters and electron emission devices, including electrode materials for electron emission and electron absorption with ultimate work functions below 5 eV; (2) Designed and fabricated thermionic devices for energy conversion and electron emission based on the components developed in (1); (3) Engineered test systems to characterize electronic, thermal, and mechanical properties of thermionic devices and electron emitters and their components, and test devices and components designed and fabricated in (1) and (2); and (4) Developed theoretical modeling capabilities in support of these technical objectives.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Benched: Upgrading and Updating the Los Alamos Benchmark Suite for the 21st Century [Slides]

The presentation begins by stating that most organizations make choices to handle specific things when preparing input files for validation, such as which elemental abundance data to use, how to decompose specific elements, and setting calculation precision. It also discusses the consequences, which include differing calculation results between different organizations for the same case, even when using the same code. This is illustrated by the intercomparison exercise and input files that are prepared by one organization and are not necessarily correct for another. The presentation explains that the Los Alamos Benchmark Suite is a centralized repository of high-quality benchmark models currently under development at LANL. The objectives of the new repository are to remain up to date with the latest ICSBEP revision, to have a formal review and revision process, to (eventually) be an open-source repository, and to provide new tools for improved input and output file generation and review.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

2021 Q1 Project Report: Optimized Bifacial PV Systems (Q1 FY2021 Project Report)

This project has four main technical objectives: 1) Develop and improve bifacial performance models by adding the capability to evaluate electrical behavior and performance of bifacial modules and arrays under realistic field conditions including irradiance variability caused by racking, module frame, and position in the array. 2) Instrument and monitor performance of fielded bifacial systems to validate performance models and to measure, analyze and publish on bifacial energy gain. These should include both research and commercial bifacial systems and cover a variety of deployment applications. 3) Evaluate optimal bifacial system designs using simulations leveraging high-performance computing, and also using full sized and miniaturized experimental field deployments. 4) Establish and contribute to international test standards for bifacial system performance, testing, and safety, and work with the community to establish installation and siting best practices.

42 ENGINEERING↗