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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

An improved Venus gravity field from Doppler tracking of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Magellan spacecraft

A total of 365,000 Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) S-band Doppler data points were fit in arcs ranging from one to four revolutions in length by estimating the spacecraft position and velocity, atmospheric density, and a solar pressure parameter at each arc epoch. The resultant converged PVO orbits were used to produce 194 information arrays for the Venus spherical harmonic coefficients complete to degree and order 21. A similar procedure was used to produce a second set of 72 information arrays for a 21 x 21 gravitational field from a limited, but global, sampling of Magellan S- and X-band data from cycles 1 and 2. The PVO and Magellan information arrays were combined and solved to obtain the 21 x 21 spherical harmonic expansion designated JPL-Venus Gravity Model 6A (VGM6A). The VGM6A harmonic field field produced significant improvements in the Doppler residual statistics obtained from field validation fits to both PVO and Magellan tracking data in comparison with alternative representations of Venus gravity.

Mcnamee, J. B.↗

Extraction of Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives for the Basic F-18 Aircraft at High Angles of Attack

The results of parameter identification to determine the lateral-directional stability and control derivatives of an F-18 research aircraft in its basic hardware and software configuration are presented. The derivatives are estimated from dynamic flight data using a specialized identification program developed at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. The formulation uses the linearized aircraft equations of motions in their continuous/discrete form and a maximum likelihood estimator that accounts for both state and measurement noise. State noise is used to model the uncommanded forcing function caused by unsteady aerodynamics, such as separated and vortical flows, over the aircraft. The derivatives are plotted as functions of angle of attack between 3 deg and 47 deg and compared with wind-tunnel predictions. The quality of the derivative estimates obtained by parameter identification is somewhat degraded because the maneuvers were flown with the aircraft's control augmentation system engaged, which introduced relatively high correlations between the control variables and response variables as a result of control motions from the feedback control system.

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗

Fine Sun Sensor Field of View Calibration

The fine Sun sensor (FSS) used on many spacecraft consists of two independent single-axis sensors, nominally mounted perpendicularly, that detect Sun angle across a typical field of view of +/- 32 degrees. The nonlinear function that maps the measured counts into an observed angle is called the transfer function. The FSS transfer function provided by the manufacturer consists of nine parameters for each of the two sensitive axes. An improved transfer function has been previously reported that achieves a significant accuracy improvement across the entire field of view. This new function expands the parameter set to 12 coefficients per axis and includes cross terms combining counts from both axes. To make best use of the FSS for spacecraft attitude determination, it must be calibrated after launch. We are interested in simplifying the postlaunch calibration procedure for estimating improvements to the 24 parameters in the transfer function. This paper discusses how to recombine the terms of the transfer function to reduce their redundancy without decreasing its accuracy and then presents an attitude dependent procedure for estimating the parameters. The end result is a calibration algorithm that is easier to use and does not sacrifice accuracy. Results of calibration using on-orbit data are presented.

Sedlak, Joseph E.↗

Fuzzification of Electromagnetic Interference Patterns Onboard Commercial Airliners Due to Wireless Technology

The use of portable wireless technology has increased dramatically over the past few years. Over the years however, numerous reports have cited portable electronic devices (PEDs) as a possible cause of electromagnetic interference (EMI) to aircraft navigation and communication radio systems. PEDs may act as transmitters and their signals may be detected by the various radio receiver antennas installed on the aircraft. Measurement of the radiated field coupling between passenger cabin locations and aircraft communication and navigation receivers, via their antennas is defined herein as interference path loss (IPL). Personnel from NASA Langley Research Center, Eagles Wings Inc., and United Airlines performed extensive IPL measurements on several Boeing 737 airplanes. In previous work, the IPL data collected was graphically plotted and presented using MATLAB. This paper provides an introductory result of modeling EMI patterns using Fuzzy Logic, using the graphical analysis of the IPL data summarized. The application of fuzzy logic seeks to provide a means of estimating IPL at various locations within an airplane passenger cabin using simple modeling parameters. Fuzzy logic methods may provide a means to assess IPL characteristics of aircraft that have not been subject to expensive measurement or modeling processes and may also be useful for estimating the merit of aircraft design changes intended to minimize the potential for EMI.

Jafri, Madiha↗

Accelerated Aging in Electrolytic Capacitors for Prognostics

The focus of this work is the analysis of different degradation phenomena based on thermal overstress and electrical overstress accelerated aging systems and the use of accelerated aging techniques for prognostics algorithm development. Results on thermal overstress and electrical overstress experiments are presented. In addition, preliminary results toward the development of physics-based degradation models are presented focusing on the electrolyte evaporation failure mechanism. An empirical degradation model based on percentage capacitance loss under electrical overstress is presented and used in: (i) a Bayesian-based implementation of model-based prognostics using a discrete Kalman filter for health state estimation, and (ii) a dynamic system representation of the degradation model for forecasting and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. A leave-one-out validation methodology is used to assess the validity of the methodology under the small sample size constrain. The results observed on the RUL estimation are consistent through the validation tests comparing relative accuracy and prediction error. It has been observed that the inaccuracy of the model to represent the change in degradation behavior observed at the end of the test data is consistent throughout the validation tests, indicating the need of a more detailed degradation model or the use of an algorithm that could estimate model parameters on-line. Based on the observed degradation process under different stress intensity with rest periods, the need for more sophisticated degradation models is further supported. The current degradation model does not represent the capacitance recovery over rest periods following an accelerated aging stress period.

Celaya, Jose R.↗

Technology Estimating 2: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

As a leader in space technology research and development, NASA is continuing in the development of the Technology Estimating process, initiated in 2012, for estimating the cost and schedule of low maturity technology research and development, where the Technology Readiness Level is less than TRL 6. NASA' s Technology Roadmap areas consist of 14 technology areas. The focus of this continuing Technology Estimating effort included four Technology Areas (TA): TA3 Space Power and Energy Storage, TA4 Robotics, TA8 Instruments, and TA12 Materials, to confine the research to the most abundant data pool. This research report continues the development of technology estimating efforts completed during 2013-2014, and addresses the refinement of parameters selected and recommended for use in the estimating process, where the parameters developed are applicable to Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) used in the parametric cost estimating analysis. This research addresses the architecture for administration of the Technology Cost and Scheduling Estimating tool, the parameters suggested for computer software adjunct to any technology area, and the identification of gaps in the Technology Estimating process.

Cole, Stuart K.↗

Modeling of Multicomponent Trace Contaminant Adsorption on Activated Carbon

Modeling of multicomponent trace contaminant adsorption on activated carbon for spacecraft life support applications presents challenges due to the very low contaminant concentrations in cabin air coupled with very strong adsorption of heavier components such as cyclic polydimethylsiloxanes. Both gas-phase and solid-phase micropore mass transfer resistances can be important, and competitive interactions between adsorbed components can result in behavior such as roll-up where lighter components displaced by heavier components have a higher concentration at the outlet than at the inlet. This paper describes the further development of a dynamic trace contaminant adsorption model based on Ideal Adsorbed Solution Theory (IAST). Alternative 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional versions of the model are described with different mass transfer resistance and driving force assumptions. Optimization of solution methods for speed and stability is also described. Mass balance equations are scaled to provide sensitivity over the wide range of component concentrations in cabin air. Model parameters are estimated from isotherm and breakthrough test data on single adsorbate and binary adsorbate systems. Multicomponent results are compared against predictions of a heritage model used extensively by NASA for trace contaminant control system (TCCS) carbon bed sizing. Finally, efforts to implement the model in a second software platform for wider access are described.

Kevin E Lange↗

Investigating the Effect of Sorbed Humic Acid on the Mobility of Uranium - 19461

The Savannah River Site (SRS) was one of the major nuclear facilities for the U.S Department of Energy. During the Cold War, these facilities produced large amounts of radioactive and hazardous waste. On site, the F-Area consisted of three unlined seepage basins that collected approximately 6.8 billion liters of low-level waste that contained nitric acid, radionuclides, and dissolved metals due to plutonium separation operations. Sufficient quantities of uranium isotopes, I-129, Tc-99, and tritium migrated into the groundwater, creating an acidic plume with a pH between 3 and 5.5. Although the basins functioned as designed, the acidic nature of the waste created a source of contamination for the groundwater and soil below the basins. With radionuclides above their maximum contaminant level (MCL) remediation efforts took place. Humic acid as a remediation technology has shown potential for controlling radionuclide mobility. Humic acid is a fraction of humic substance that are ubiquitous in the environment. Humic substances (HS) are complex heterogeneous mixtures of polydispersed materials formed by biochemical and chemical reactions during the decay and transformation of plant and microbial remains. Humic substances account for 50-80% of the organic carbon in the soil or sediment and are known for their excellent binding capacity for metals. Humic acid can be extracted with a potassium hydroxide base solution and then drying it. The high pH solubilizes the humic acid molecules and generates a dark-brown highly-concentrated solution, rich in humic acid, which can be diluted for use. Humic acid's strong sorption capacity and its ability to develop a bond with uranium at slightly acid pH constitute it as remediation technology to reduce uranium (VI) mobility. Column experiments were performed to identify the sorption and desorption of HS in flow-through porous media representative of the acidic aquifer at the F-Area Seepage Basins. Two commercially available HA were selected for comparison, Huma-K and KW15 modified humics (modified humic acid, mod-HA). By conducting a nonreactive rhenium tracer test, on columns filled with soil obtained from SRS's FAW-1 at a depth interval of 18 m -21 m, column parameters such as pore volume (PV), variance, dispersion and peclet number were determined. Columns were then used to estimate the influence of HA on uranium mobility. Data obtained from this study shows that using HA as an amendment for uranium remediation improves uranium removal significantly. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Quantifying Model Form Uncertainty of Epidemic Forecasting Models from Incidence Data

Objective We present a mathematical framework for non-parametric estimation of the force of infection, together with statistical upper and lower confidence bands. The resulting estimates allow to assess how well simpler models, such as SEIR, fit the observed time series of incidence data.IntroductionUncertainty Quantification (UQ), the ability to quantify the impact of sample-to-sample variations and model misspecification on predictions and forecasts, is a critical aspect of disease surveillance. While quantifying the impact of stochastic uncertainty in the data is well understood, quantifying the impact of model misspecification is significantly harder. For the latter, one needs a "universal model" to which more restrictive parametric models are compared too.MethodsThis talk presents a useful modeling framework for time series of incidence data from contagious diseases that enables one to identify and quantify the impact of model form uncertainty. Specifically, we propose to focus on estimating the timedependent force of infection. The latter is a universal parameters for all contagious disease model. Using a machine learning technique for estimating monotone functions, i.e., isotonic regression and its variants, one can estimate the force ofinfection without addtional assumptions. We note that most contagious disease model do satisfy this monotonicity assumption, due to a combination of factors: depletion of susceptibles, implementation of mitigation strategies, behavior change, etc. Comparing the resulting "non-parametric" estimate with parametric estimates, obtained by fitting an SEIR for example, can reveal model deficiencies and help quantify model form uncertainties.Finally, we discuss how ideas from "strict bound theory" can be used to develop upper and lower uncertainty bands for force of infection that acknowledge the intrinsic stochasticity in the data.ResultsWe demonstrate the application of the methodology to weekly Influenza Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from France andcompare the results to fitted SIR and SEIR models. This comparison can be seen as a nonparametric goodness of fit test, providing one with tools to do simple model selection.ConclusionsWe present a novel and flexible model to statistically describe the force of infection as a function of time. Comparing the fit to incidence data of that model with the fit of simpler parametric models enables the quantification of model form uncertainty and associated model selection.

Hengartner, Nicholas↗

A geopotential model from satellite tracking, altimeter, and surface gravity data: GEM-T3

An improved model of Earth's gravitational field, Goddard Earth Model T-3 (GEM-T3), has been developed from a combination of satellite tracking, satellite altimeter, and surface gravimetric data. GEM-T3 provides a significant improvement in the modeling of the gravity field at half wavelengths of 400 km and longer. This model, complete to degree and order 50, yields more accurate satellite orbits and an improved geoid representation than previous Goddard Earth Models. GEM-T3 uses altimeter data from GEOS 3 (1975-1976), Seasat (1978) and Geosat (1986-1987). Tracking information used in the solution includes more than 1300 arcs of data encompassing 31 different satellites. The recovery of the long-wavelength components of the solution relies mostly on highly precise satellite laser ranging (SLR) data, but also includes Tracking Network (TRANET) Doppler, optical, and satellite-to-satellite tracking acquired between the ATS 6 and GEOS 3 satellites. The main advances over GEM-T2 (beyond the inclusion of altimeter and surface gravity information which is essential for the resolution of the shorter wavelength geoid) are some improved tracking data analysis approaches and additional SLR data. Although the use of altimeter data has greatly enhanced the modeling of the ocean geoid between 65 deg N and 60 deg S latitudes in GEM-T3, the lack of accurate detailed surface gravimetry leaves poor geoid resolution over many continental regions of great tectonic interest (e.g., Himalayas, Andes). Estimates of polar motion, tracking station coordinates, and long-wavelength ocean tidal terms were also made (accounting for 6330 parameters). GEM-T3 has undergone error calibration using a technique based on subset solutions to produce reliable error estimates. The calibration is based on the condition that the expected mean square deviation of a subset gravity solution from the full set values is predicted by the solutions' error covariances. Data weights are iteratively adjusted until this condition for the error calibration is satisfied. In addition, gravity field tests were performed on strong satellite data sets withheld from the solution (thereby ensuring their independence). In these tests, the performance of the subset models on the withheld observations is compared to error projections based on their calibrated error covariances. These results demonstrate that orbit accuracy projections are reliable for new satellites which were not included in GEM-T3.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Fatigue behavior and modeling for additive manufactured 304L stainless steel: The effect of surface roughness

The fatigue strength of additively manufactured metallic parts in their as-built surface condition is mainly dominated by the surface roughness. Post-processing is often inevitable to reduce surface roughness effects even though post-processing diminishes the main advantage of additive manufacturing, which is net-shaped direct-to-service production. This work investigates the underlying mechanisms responsible for fatigue failure of additively manufactured 304L stainless steel parts in as-built and machined/polished surface conditions. Both strain- and force-controlled, fully reversed fatigue tests were conducted to gain a comprehensive understanding of surface roughness effects on fatigue behavior. The sensitivity to surface roughness is shown to be dependent on the control mode, with stress-based fatigue tests showing greater sensitivity than strain-based fatigue tests. Moreover, the fatigue life estimation for as-built specimens was performed based on surface roughness parameters as well as the fatigue properties of the specimens in machined/polished surface condition of the material without using any fatigue data of specimens in as-built surface condition. Accordingly, the effect of surface roughness on the fatigue behavior could be estimated reasonably well in both strain-life and stress-life approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wind field model-based estimation of Seasat scatterometer winds

A model-based approach to estimating near-surface wind fields over the ocean from Seasat scatterometer (SASS) measurements is presented. The approach is a direct assimilation technique in which wind field model parameters are estimated directly from the scatterometer measurements of the radar backscatter of the ocean's surface using maximum likelihood principles. The wind field estimate is then computed from the estimated model parameters. The wind field model used in this approach is based on geostrophic approximation and on simplistic assumptions about the wind field vorticity and divergence but includes ageostrophic winds. Nine days of SASS data were processed to obtain unique wind estimates. Comparisons in performance to the traditional two-step (point-wise wind retrieval followed by ambiguity removal) wind estimate method and the model-based method are provided using both simulated radar backscatter measurements and actual SASS measurements. In the latter case the results are compared to wind fields determined using subjective ambiguity removal. While the traditional approach results in missing measurements and reduced effective swath width due to fore/aft beam cell coregistration problems, the model-based approach uses all available measurements to increase the effective swath width and to reduce data gaps. The results reveal that the model-based wind estimates have accuracy comparable to traditionally estimated winds with less 'noise' in the directional estimates, particularly at low wind speeds.

Long, David G.↗

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗

CONUS and Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as wildlands. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have developed a carbon consumption database for the Continental United States (CONUS) and are developing a global carbon consumption database, both of which are directly link to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) fuels are used to parameterize biomass, and consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. Residual burned area is defined as burning in areas that have recently burned. We implemented the FCCS 30-meter CONUS fuelbed dataset during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets. The 300-meter global database builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized FCCS biomass parameters. These products can serve as valuable tools when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly and accurately estimate carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere.

FCCS↗

Multistage variable probability forest volume inventory

An inventory scheme based on the use of computer processed LANDSAT MSS data was developed. Output from the inventory scheme provides an estimate of the standing net saw timber volume of a major timber species on a selected forested area of the Navajo Nation. Such estimates are based on the values of parameters currently used for scaled sawlog conversion to mill output. The multistage variable probability sampling appears capable of producing estimates which compare favorably with those produced using conventional techniques. In addition, the reduction in time, manpower, and overall costs lend it to numerous applications.

Anderson, J. E.↗

On the estimation of boundary layer heights: a machine learning approach

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum, and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (such as soil temperature, relative humidity, etc.) are known to have an impact on zi. Nevertheless, precise relationships between these surface properties and zi are less well known and not easily discernible from the multi-year dataset. Machine learning approaches, such as random forest (RF), which use a multi-regression framework, help to decipher some of the physical processes linking surface-based characteristics to zi. In this study, a 4-year dataset from 2016 to 2019 at the Southern Great Plains site is used to develop and test a machine learning framework for estimating zi. Parameters derived from Doppler lidars are used in combination with over 20 different surface meteorological measurements as inputs to a RF model. The model is trained using radiosonde-derived zi values spanning the period from 2016 through 2018 and then evaluated using data from 2019. Results from 2019 showed significantly better agreement with the radiosonde compared to estimates derived from a thresholding technique using Doppler lidars only. Noteworthy improvements in daytime zi estimates were observed using the RF model, with a 50 % improvement in mean absolute error and an R2 of greater than 85 % compared to the Tucker method zi. We also explore the effect of zi uncertainty on convective velocity scaling and present preliminary comparisons between the RF model and zi estimates derived from atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design criteria and eigensequence plots for satellite computed tomography

The use of the degrees of freedom for signal is proposed as a design criteria for comparing different designs for satellite and other measuring systems. It is also proposed that certain eigensequence plots be examined at the design stage along with appropriate estimates of the parameter lambda playing the role of noise to signal ratio. The degrees of freedom for signal and the eigensequence plots may be determined using prior information in the spectral domain which is presently available along with a description of the system, and simulated data for estimating lambda. This work extends the 1972 work of Weinreb and Crosby.

Wahba, G.↗