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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Vertical instability forecasting and controllability assessment of multi-device tokamak plasmas in DECAF with data-driven optimization

Abstract Reliable vertical position control will be an essential element of any future tokamak-based fusion power plant in order to reduce disruptions and maximize performance. We investigate methods to improve vertical controllability boundary determination in plasma operational space and demonstrate a data-driven approach based on direct pseudoinversion of operational space data that is rigorously quantitative, applicable in real-time plasma control systems, and physically intuitive to interpret. Applied to historical shot data from entire run campaigns on the MAST-U, KSTAR, and NSTX tokamaks, this approach, implemented in DECAF, improves vertical displacement event identification accuracy to 98.9%–100%. Further, we explore the application of a physics-based vertical stability metric as an early warning forecaster for vertical displacement events. The development of a linear surrogate model for the plasma current density profile, with a coefficient of determination of 0.992 on the training dataset, enables potential employment of this forecaster in real-time. The application of this approach on historical data from the MAST-U MU02 campaign yields a forecaster with 62.6% accuracy, indicating promise for this method when further refined and potentially coupled with other stability metrics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bias-hardened estimators of patchy screening profiles

Detecting anisotropic screening of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) holds the promise of revealing the distribution of gas in the Universe, characterizing the complex processes of galaxy formation and feedback, and studying the epoch of reionization. Estimators for inhomogeneous screening, including some recently proposed small-scale (stacked) estimators, are quadratic or higher order in the CMB temperature or polarization fields and are therefore subject to contamination from CMB lensing. We review the origin of this lensing bias and show that, when stacking on unWISE galaxies, the expected lensing bias dominates the signal if left unmitigated. Hardening techniques that null the lensing bias have been proposed for standard quadratic estimators, whereas only approximate methods have been proposed for stacked estimators. In conclusion, we review these techniques and apply the former to stacked estimators, presenting several strategies (including the optimal strategy) to null lensing contamination when stacking on any large-scale structure tracer.

Cosmic microwave background↗

Numerical study and test of the APS linac transverse deflecting cavity

The transverse deflecting cavity can be used to transform particle distributions in the 6D phase space, which makes it a promising component in phase space beam diagnostics and beam manipulations. In the Advanced Photon Source (APS) Linac, a LOLA-type traveling wave deflecting cavity was installed for the diagnostics of beam characteristics, such as the bunch length, bunch temporal profile, time-dependent energy spread and slice (time-correlated) transverse emittance. In this paper, this deflecting cavity is modeled and analyzed with the numerical method. The effects of the center cell and coupler cell dimensions on the performance of the whole structure are studied, which shows the coupler cell radius has a dominant effect over the coupler cell length and slot width on the global reflection coefficient and field flatness. Important RF parameters, such as S-11, field flatness and phase advance etc., of the LOLA-II cavity in tuning are calculated and discussed. After optimization, the field flatness of the cavity is 2.1%, the phase advance is 119.66 degrees degrees with a standard deviation smaller than 0.5 degrees and the bandwidth is 15.738 MHz when VSWR < 1.1 (i.e. the S-11, < -26 dB). Bead-pull measurements and RF conditioning have been also performed and discussed. Finally, the initial cavity commissioning with electron beam of 375 MeV is reported, and compared with simulation.

coupler↗

Characterizing in-stream turbulent flow for tidal energy converter siting in Cook Inlet, Alaska

Cook Inlet in Alaska is the most promising location for tidal energy development in the U.S. due to its significant tidal range of approximately 10 meters and high volume flux. The inlet's unique geometry and flow characteristics make it the most energetic tidal stream in the nation, with GW-scale potential energy capacity. With the growing interest in tidal energy converter (TEC) deployment in this area, we implemented a regional-scale, 3D hydrodynamic modeling framework to predict tidal current and turbulence characteristics that can assist TEC designers and project managers. We validated the model results extensively using various datasets collected with bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers and velocimeters. The comparison between the model outputs and observational data highlighted the effectiveness of the 3D FVCOM model and the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Turbulence Model in accurately assessing macro-scale kinetic energy, turbulence intensity, and the production and dissipation rates at a prospective TEC site. Using two months of model simulation data, we examined the channel cross-section for TEC deployment, focusing on undisturbed power density and macro-scale turbulent properties. Further, our findings indicate that understanding the turbulence characteristics and flow properties can enhance Stage I/II resource characterization by identifying optimal locations for TECs and their layouts within the channel. Furthermore, we demonstrated that TEC designers can utilize macro-scale turbulence data from 3D coastal models as boundary conditions for other turbulence models, allowing for a more detailed resolution of the turbulence structure at TEC siting locations. Ultimately, this work emphasizes the importance of estimating flow and turbulence conditions in energetic systems to understand turbulent sites better and improve resource characterization.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Critical Assessment of Metagenome Interpretation: the second round of challenges

Abstract Evaluating metagenomic software is key for optimizing metagenome interpretation and focus of the Initiative for the Critical Assessment of Metagenome Interpretation (CAMI). The CAMI II challenge engaged the community to assess methods on realistic and complex datasets with long- and short-read sequences, created computationally from around 1,700 new and known genomes, as well as 600 new plasmids and viruses. Here we analyze 5,002 results by 76 program versions. Substantial improvements were seen in assembly, some due to long-read data. Related strains still were challenging for assembly and genome recovery through binning, as was assembly quality for the latter. Profilers markedly matured, with taxon profilers and binners excelling at higher bacterial ranks, but underperforming for viruses and Archaea. Clinical pathogen detection results revealed a need to improve reproducibility. Runtime and memory usage analyses identified efficient programs, including top performers with other metrics. The results identify challenges and guide researchers in selecting methods for analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Optimization and Control of a Hybrid Gas Turbine/sCO 2 Power System

During phase-I, the project team led by Echogen Power Systems (EPS) had two primary objectives based on investigating the application of gas turbines with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles. The first objective was to improve the overall efficiency and performance of a hybrid gas turbine/sCO 2 power system through a joint optimization of the two subsystems (gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle) using non-linear optimization techniques that simultaneously evaluate thermal performance of the combined cycle. The hybrid power system included several points of interaction, including (but not limited to) gas turbine exhaust, fuel heating, inlet chilling and turbine cooling. The second objective was to establish a baseline transient response model of the hybrid power system and a notional microgrid and begin steps to integrate the control systems of the three major elements (gas turbine, sCO 2 cycle and grid controller). The project team established a baseline performance for a combined cycle power plant using a production gas turbine and scaled sCO 2 power cycle only utilizing exhaust heat recovery. Echogen’s non-linear techno-economic optimization code was extended by adding gas turbine component models derived from a in-house developed gas turbine design code. With the two cycles coupled by the gas turbine exhaust, design parameters of both cycles were allowed to vary simultaneously to determine performance opportunity versus isolated designs. Returning to the baseline gas turbine/sCO 2 power cycle transient models: Echogen had in-house developed sCO 2 cycle transient model in GT-Suite system simulation software, and had partnered with Siemens Finspång for gas turbine transient model, and Siemens PTI group to provide micro-grid load profile as well as hybrid power cycle generated load (power and frequency) analysis. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a “black-box” functional mock-up interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in Finspång, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8°C. The transient model for sCO 2 power cycle was developed by Echogen in GT-SUITE 1D system simulation software platform. The basic CO 2 flow circuit has single-shaft turbomachinery with net 11.5 MW electrical power output at design conditions. The power turbine has a double-ended shaft with one end connected to synchronous generator through a fixed-ratio gearbox. The other end of power turbine is connected to the compressor through a continuously variable transmission. The major components of the sCO 2 power cycle modeled include air cooled condenser/cooler, CO 2 compressor, recuperator, two waste heat exchanger coils, power turbine, continuous variable transmission, gearbox and generator. Integration of SGT-750 transient model and sCO 2 power cycle transient model was done in Matlab Simulink. In the integrated model, the gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle interacted at two points, first one being the gas turbine exhaust gas flow rate and temperature, which were inputs to sCO 2 power cycle model. The second point was the distribution of micro-grid load demand signal between the SGT-750 generator and sCO 2 cycle generator. For a given combined-cycle load demand, the gas turbine load demand was equal to the total demand minus the sCO 2 cycle power generated. In the present study the integrated model was simulated for two cases of grid load demand: (i) for a step change, both positive-step and negative-step, in grid load demand (ii) for a micro-grid load demand curve provided by Siemens PTI group. Finally, the time series plots representing load demand versus integrated system response were presented including the sCO 2 power cycle control system performance plots. The actual generated power and frequency of both the generators, gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle, was supplied to Siemens PTI group for dynamic grid assessment, results of which are provided in appendices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

ToF-SIMS in material research: A view from nanoscale hydrogen detection

Hydrogen in materials has attracted tremendous interest as its incorporation leads to significant alterations in nanoscale structure, composition, and chemistry, impacting functional properties. It has also been integral to nuclear fusion reactors and is considered a future clean energy source. However, nanoscale characterization and manipulation of hydrogen in materials are challenging as only a selected few analytical techniques can readily detect hydrogen, among which time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) is a unique and powerful one due to its excellent detection limit along with decent depth and lateral resolutions. Here, in this review, we discuss, using selected examples, how to detect and quantify hydrogen in materials by ToF-SIMS and its impact on revealing the hydrogenation/protonation-induced novel functional states in different classes of materials. In addition, we present our protocols on sample preparation and experimental conditions optimization, allowing us to achieve the best possible results. Finally, we highlight future research directions that can lead to the discovery of novel functional states and ultimately provide a deeper understanding of scientific questions in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring the Frontiers of Energy Efficiency using Power Management at System Scale

In the face of surging power demands for exascale HPC systems, this work tackles the critical challenge of understanding the impact of software-driven power management techniques like Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS) and Power Capping. These techniques have been actively developed over the past few decades. By combining insights from GPU benchmarking to understand application power profiles, we present a telemetry data-driven approach for deriving energy savings projections. This approach has been demonstrably applied to the Frontier supercomputer at scale. Our findings based on three months of telemetry data indicate that, for certain resource-constrained jobs, significant energy savings (up to 8.5%) can be achieved without compromising performance. This translates to a substantial cost reduction, equivalent to 1438 MWh of energy saved. The key contribution of this work lies in the methodology for establishing an upper limit for these best-case scenarios and its successful application. This work enables HPC professionals to optimize the power-performance trade-off within constrained power budgets, not only for the exascale era but also beyond.

Karimi, Ahmad Maroof↗

Xe Recovery from Nuclear Power Plants Off-Gas Streams: Molecular Simulations of Gas Permeation through DD3R Zeolite Membrane

Recent experimental work has shown zeolite membrane-based separation as a promising potential technology for Kr/Xe gas mixtures due to its much lower energy requirements in comparison to cryogenic distillation, the conventional separation method for such mixtures. Such a separation is also economically rewarding because Xe is in high demand, as a valuable product for many applications/processes. In this work, we have used Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations to study the effects of different conditions, i.e., temperature, pressure, and gas feed composition, on Kr/Xe separation performance via DD3R zeolite membranes. We provide a comprehensive study of the permeation of the different gas species, density profiles, and diffusion coefficients. Molecular simulations show that if the feed is changed from pure Kr/Xe to an equimolar mixture, the Kr/Xe separation factor increases, which agrees with experiments. In addition, when Ar is introduced as a sweep gas, the adsorption of both Kr and Xe increases, while the permeation of pure Kr increases. A similar behavior is observed with equimolar mixtures of Kr/Xe with Ar as the sweep gas. High-separation Kr/Xe selectivity is observed at 50 atm and 425 K but with low total permeation rates. Changing pressure and temperature are found to have profound effects on optimizing the separation selectivity and the permeation throughput.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Genome-wide fitness profiling reveals molecular mechanisms that bacteria use to interact with Trichoderma atroviride exometabolites

Trichoderma spp. are ubiquitous rhizosphere fungi capable of producing several classes of secondary metabolites that can modify the dynamics of the plant-associated microbiome. However, the bacterial-fungal mechanisms that mediate these interactions have not been fully characterized. Here, a random barcode transposon-site sequencing (RB-TnSeq) approach was employed to identify bacterial genes important for fitness in the presence of Trichoderma atroviride exudates. We selected three rhizosphere bacteria with RB-TnSeq mutant libraries that can promote plant growth: the nitrogen fixers Klebsiella michiganensis M5aI and Herbaspirillum seropedicae SmR1, and Pseudomonas simiae WCS417. As a non-rhizosphere species, Pseudomonas putida KT2440 was also included. From the RB-TnSeq data, nitrogen-fixing bacteria competed mainly for iron and required the siderophore transport system TonB/ExbB for optimal fitness in the presence of T . atroviride exudates. In contrast, P . simiae and P . putida were highly dependent on mechanisms associated with membrane lipid modification that are required for resistance to cationic antimicrobial peptides (CAMPs). A mutant in the Hog1-MAP kinase (Δ tmk 3) gene of T . atroviride showed altered expression patterns of many nonribosomal peptide synthetase (NRPS) biosynthetic gene clusters with potential antibiotic activity. In contrast to exudates from wild-type T . atroviride , bacterial mutants containing lesions in genes associated with resistance to antibiotics did not show fitness defects when RB-TnSeq libraries were exposed to exudates from the Δ tmk3 mutant. Unexpectedly, exudates from wild-type T . atroviride and the Δ tmk 3 mutant rescued purine auxotrophic mutants of H . seropedicae , K . michiganensis and P . simiae . Metabolomic analysis on exudates from wild-type T . atroviride and the Δ tmk 3 mutant showed that both strains excrete purines and complex metabolites; functional Tmk3 is required to produce some of these metabolites. This study highlights the complex interplay between Trichoderma -metabolites and soil bacteria, revealing both beneficial and antagonistic effects, and underscoring the intricate and multifaceted nature of this relationship.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Membrane Structure and Dynamics during Bioproduct Production in Zymomonas mobilis by Molecular Simulation

The conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into biofuels and bioproducts by microbial biorefineries is central to a sustainable chemical industry. Zymomonas mobilis is one such biorefinery chassis and is resistant to ethanol stress, leading to its use in biomass conversion to biofuels and bioproducts. However, Z. mobilis growth is often inhibited by organic acids, aldehydes, alcohols, ketones, and amides found in biomass hydrolysate. The resulting slow growth inhibits production and as a result drives up the price for the resulting products. One hypothesis is that these molecules interact with or disrupt the bacterial membrane, triggering stress responses and hindering growth. To test this hypothesis at the molecular level, we employ all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate lignocellulose-derived small molecules and their impact on a biologically relevant Z. mobilis membrane model. Simulations were conducted across a range of inhibitor concentrations from 0 to 2.5 mol %, analyzing key membrane properties such as area per lipid (APL), membrane thickness, lipid-order parameter (−S CH ), lateral diffusion coefficient (D xy ), and permeability coefficient (Pm). From simulation, we observed altered membrane structure and dynamics at these modest small molecule concentrations commonly found in hydrolysates. Generally, the membranes become thinner, with a higher area per lipid and lower-order parameter as the small molecule concentration increases. These trends are stronger for more hydrophobic molecules with greater hydrophobic bulk, as isobutanol, propanol, and propanoic acid showed greater membrane perturbations as the concentration increased compared to other small molecules. Tracking small molecule distributions directly in our equilibrium simulations allows us to determine concentration-dependent free energy profiles for these molecules. While the trends are noisy, generally the barriers to crossing the membrane decrease as the concentration increases, indicating that the membranes become leakier as small molecule concentrations rise. Comparing between native Z. mobilis membranes with hopanoids and membranes sharing the same phospholipid composition but without hopanoids, hopanoids stabilize and order the membrane for smaller molecules to maintain membrane structure but appear insufficient for larger hydrophobic molecules like isobutanol. These findings provide a mechanistic understanding of how small molecules found in biomass degradation streams interact with the Z. mobilis membrane, offering valuable insights for future strain engineering efforts to optimize biofuel and bioproduct synthesis from biomass feedstocks by highlighting limits to small molecule tolerance. This knowledge can guide the modification of membrane composition to develop more robust microbes, thereby improving microbial survival and yields in industrial contexts.

Singh, Nitin Kumar [Michigan State Univ., East Lan↗

Compensation of Dispersion in Sinuous Antennas for Polarimetric Ground Penetrating Radar Applications

In order to improve the accuracy of subsurface target classification with ground penetrating radar (GPR) systems, it is desired to transmit and receive ultra-wide band pulses with varying combinations of polarization (a technique referred to as polarimetry). The sinuous antenna exhibits such desirable properties as ultra-wide bandwidth, polarization diversity, and low-profile form factor, making it an excellent candidate for the radiating element of such systems. However, sinuous antennas are dispersive since the active region moves with frequency along the structure, resulting in the distortion of radiated pulses. This distortion may be compensated in signal processing with accurately simulated or measured antenna phase information. However, in a practical GPR, the antenna performance may deviate from that simulated, accurate measurements may be impractical, and/or the dielectric loading of the environment may cause deviations. In such cases, it may be desirable to employ a simple dispersion model based on antenna design parameters which may be optimized in situ. This paper explores the dispersive properties of the sinuous antenna and presents a simple, adjustable, model that may be used to correct dispersed pulses. Here, the dispersion model is successfully applied to both simulated and measured scenarios, thereby enabling the use of sinuous antennas in polarimetric GPR applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Correlation Between Corrugation-Induced Flexoelectric Polarization and Conductivity of Low-Dimensional Transition Metal Dichalcogenides

The tunability of polar and semiconducting properties of low-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) have propelled them to the forefront of fundamental and applied physical research. These materials can vary their electrophysical properties from nonpolar to ferroelectric, and from direct-band semiconducting to metallic. In addition to classical controlling factors, such as field effect, composition, and doping, new degrees of freedom emerge in TMDs due to the curvature-induced electron redistribution and the associated changes in electronic properties. Here we theoretically explore the elastic and electric fields, flexoelectric polarization and free charge density for a TMD nanoflake placed on a rough substrate with a sinusoidal corrugation profile. Finite element modelling results for different flake thickness and corrugation depth yield insights into the flexoelectric nature of the out-of-plane electric polarization and establish the unambiguous correlation between the polarization and static conductivity modulation. The modulation is caused by the coupling between the deformation potential and inhomogeneous elastic strains, which evolve in the TMD nanoflake due to the adhesion between the flake surface and corrugated substrate. We reveal a pronounced maximum in the thickness dependences of the electron and hole conductivity of MoS 2 and MoTe 2 nanoflakes placed on a corrugated substrate, which opens the way for the optimization of their geometry towards significant improvement in their polar and electronic properties, necessary for advanced applications in nanoelectronics and memory devices. Specifically, the obtained results can be useful for the development of nanoscale straintronic devices based on the bended MoS 2 , MoTe 2 , and MoSTe nanoflakes, such as diodes and bipolar transistors with a bending-controllable sharpness of p-n junctions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Grid-connected heat pump water heater benefits for low-income households in the Southeastern United States

Energy efficient heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) reduce customer energy costs; grid-connected controls further increase HPWH value by enabling energy storage and shifting demand to cheaper, off-peak periods. However, a HPWH’s first cost premium can put it out of reach for low-income customers. This paper will present results of an ongoing study exploring the benefits of load shifting HPWHs for 24 low-income households, aiming to support increased product deployment in this demographic. The study uses EcoPort modules to shift HPWH load for a study sample consisting primarily of low-income adults and seniors in North Carolina. Building upon prior studies, the study’s HPWH operating schedules are designed to maximize shifted energy and minimize participant electricity costs based on local time-of-use rates. The study documents load profiles of grid-connected HPWHs in a less-studied demographic group and explores how certain groups may have particularly flexible loads due to their unique usage profiles. The results are relevant for HPWH product performance in the Southeast. The study will quantify HPWH load shifting performance during North Carolina’s hot summer, temperate shoulder, and occasionally sub-freezing winter seasons, and the study includes installations in conditioned, semi-conditioned, and unconditioned spaces. Finally, study results will also explore how controlled HPWHs can provide value to the regional grid by reducing seasonal peaks via demand response. Lessons learned include HPWH acceptance for low-income and senior users, best practices for maintaining HPWH connectivity among users without prior product experience, and strategies to leverage remote monitoring to ensure optimal operation and enhance HPWH reliability.

Urigwe, Daniela↗

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

Improving Flexibility and Performance of Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion

Staged pressurized oxy-combustion (SPOC) is a novel coal combustion power technology being developed by Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL) that offers the potential to deliver low-carbon power at a reduced cost. Oxy-combustion plants operate by removing most of the nitrogen contained in air prior to combustion, thereby burning fuel in a near-pure oxygen stream instead of air. This combustion produces a flue gas containing primarily carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and water vapor that allows relatively straightforward CO 2 capture. First-generation, atmospheric oxy-combustion technology relies on a flue gas recycle (FGR) diluent to reduce the peak temperatures achieved and the resulting high thermal radiation levels that would otherwise occur in a fuel/oxygen only flame. In contrast, by staging the combustion in several steps, SPOC reduces the peak temperatures of combustion without resorting to a high degree of FGR to control flame temperatures. The SPOC process operates by utilizing two or more pressurized boiler modules connected in series to produce fuel staging; hence, only a portion of the fuel is combusted in any given combustion module. Subsequently the thermal energy released at each stage can be captured and removed from the gases prior to subsequent stages, when more fuel is introduced. This allows the SPOC process to operate with minimal FGR, avoiding the associated efficiency losses and additional costs. While the staging controls the heat release profile in SPOC, operating in a pressurized condition yields a more compact system, reducing modular boiler size and delivering enhanced heat transfer. Additionally, operating at elevated pressures ensures that the latent heat of moisture available from moisture in the fuel and generated by the combustion of the hydrogen content in the fuel can be captured as useful thermal energy for steam turbine integration. This is possible due to elevated dew point from the high partial pressure of the moisture generated in this process, which allows substantial feedwater heater bypassing to be achieved. The inclusion of this thermal energy, normally lost to the atmosphere in traditional combustion processes or to cooling systems in atmospheric oxy-combustion, allows the resultant net efficiency of the SPOC system to be up to 6 percentage points greater than first-generation systems. To begin the process of developing this technology for full-scale application, the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. teamed up with WUSTL, American Air Liquide, Doosan Babcock, and the U.S. Department of Energy to investigate a practical and workable boiler design concept that would minimize process risks where possible. The SPOC system offers unique process flexibility opportunities due to the staged nature of the combustion, making it a prime candidate for future primary energy delivery where the ability to operate at reduced load in an efficient manner and ramp rapidly will be valuable for balancing intermittent renewable electricity generation. The efficiency of traditional coal-fired power plants is lower at reduced loads below the steam temperature control range due to the challenges in balancing the heat pickup between radiative and convective superheater and reheater surface. Introducing additional heating surface for optimal extended controlled low load operation will likely lead to excessive attemperation at high loads, ultimately leading to a poorer overall cycle efficiency. The SPOC process can facilitate the adjustment of fuel firing rates between stages, targeting heat pickup to where it is most needed and potentially can shut down stages for low-load operation, facilitating an increased steam temperature control range on turndown. The boiler design concept assessment is being carried out to identify the maximum permissible compactness of the SPOC boiler heating surfaces. The assessment will determine the minimum overall height that will deliver appropriate tube operating metal temperatures at full load and achieve rated reheat steam temperatures at low operating loads, balanced against the needs of efficient coal combustion, and the potential resultant slagging and ash environments. The design parameters are being validated by combustion testing in the 100-kWth pressurized combustion test rig at WUSTL. Parameters being investigated include flame stability, fuel burnout, ash composition, radiative heat flux, and temperature profiles. These are being carried out for a range of inlet gas conditions and compositions and at multiple load conditions to investigate combustion stability at reduced load. The results of this testing inform the modeling of the large-scale system, that was sized at 550 MWe to allow direct comparison with the National Energy Technology Laboratory baseline cases for atmospheric oxy-combustion, air firing, and air firing with post-combustion capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗