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Operations Concept for Responding to Urgent Requests for NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR)

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, or NISAR, mission is an Earth-mapping radar observatory to be launched from Sriharikota (India) in 2022. This mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). This spacecraft will carry two instruments that will operate at radar wavelengths (L and Sband) and will provide data for understanding changes in the Earth’s land surface. The scientific data from this mission will revolutionize our understanding of the causes and consequences of land surface changes on Earth, ranging from Solid Earth Deformation in the form of natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides, to ecosystem disturbances, to changes in the cryosphere (measurements of polar ice caps, ice sheets and sea ice). A nominal Reference Observation Plan, that repeats roughly every 12-24 days, developed prior to launch by the NISAR Mission Planning team, in consultation with the Science Team, will form the basis of science data collection by the payload instruments onboard the NISAR observatory after launch. Scheduling of science observations for the mission requires accounting for limited spacecraft resources like onboard data storage, downlink capacity, energy/power, thermal limits and instrument duty cycles. In addition to nominal science data collection, the project has a Level 1 requirement to respond to requests for urgent data acquisition over disaster sites (natural or anthropogenic) by scheduling new acquisitions within 24 hrs of notification and delivering science data within 5 hours of data acquisition. This capability is to be exercised on a ‘best-efforts basis’. While the definition of what constitutes an ‘urgent request’, and how such requests would be submitted to the project, is within the domain of the Science Team, the Mission System team is responsible for developing the baseline operations concept and implementation approach for responding to such requests. Given the ‘best-efforts’ nature of this requirement, a few highlevel guidelines have been developed to help guide the formulation of the operations concept, and are presented in this paper. Requests for urgent response data will be accommodated following the guiding principle of minimal to no impact on nominal science and planned engineering activities. No change in satellite orbit or attitude will be made for urgent response. Restricting response approaches to only changing the downlink and/or ground processing priority for existing observations, and adding new observations only in areas where NISAR will not be nominally imaging, allows for minimal impact on the Reference science Observation Plan. No instrument mode changes will be allowed for urgent response (except for high-priority requests), and no new observations that impact either planned science or engineering activities will be scheduled. Additionally, data requests must fit within the available project resource margins (both spacecraft and ground resources are to be evaluated). Both JPL and ISRO will be involved at various steps of the implementation, irrespective of whether the urgent request is for L-SAR (NASA instrument) or S-SAR (ISRO instrument) or a joint dataset.

Sharma, Priyanka↗

Trust Model System for the Energy Grid of Things Network Communications

Network communication is crucial in the Energy Grid of Things (EGoT). Without a network connection, the energy grid becomes just a power grid where the energy resources are available to the customer uni-directionally. A mechanism to analyze and optimize the energy usage of the grid can only happen through a medium, a communications network, that enables information exchange between the grid participants and the service provider. Security implementers of EGoT network communication take extraordinary measures to ensure the safety of the energy grid, a critical infrastructure, as well as the safety and privacy of the grid participants. With the dynamic nature of network communication of the EGoT, the information provided by the customer or the service provider can be falsified by a malicious attacker. Therefore, a trust model is necessary to monitor any abnormal activities. This paper describes a distributed trust model system that meets the need of the EGoT. This paper describes methods for evaluating and improving the distributed trust model using standard hypothesis testing metrics such as true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative, equal error rate, and F1 score. Example calculations are shown based on generated sample data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Managing Subsurface Pressure Buildup and Interference in Commercial-Scale CO 2 Storage Project with Proximal Injection Wells

Large-scale decarbonization using carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to involve many commercial-scale CO 2 storage projects located in close proximity to each other. This close proximity raises concerns over pressure interference among the storage projects. Pressure interference between injection and storage efforts can reduce the practicable CO 2 storage resource and force wells to inject CO 2 at a lower rate to avoid the fracture pressure thresholds per United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI well regulations to preserve injection and confining zone integrity and potentially mitigate against inducing seismic activity. These analyses employ numerical full-physics reservoir modeling to evaluate how pressure buildup fronts and CO 2 plumes evolve under commercial-scale injection volumes of CO 2 in which multiple storage sites located in close proximity occur in tandem. The simulation models mimic injection at pseudo basin-scale and assume homogeneous saline formation(s) as storage targets with a pair of upper and lower homogeneous seal layer/s. These analyses specifically investigate the efficacy of two basin-wide reservoir pressure management strategies in addressing the technical challenges associated with pressure buildup and CO 2 plume commingling. The strategies explored include: 1) enlarging the area of injection well spacing (WS) and 2) storing CO 2 in a stacked sequence (SSS) of saline formations compared to a single formation. The storage and confining zones properties assumed were held common across the scenarios, unless specified otherwise. Analyses results show that after injecting 4 million tons per year for 30 years using 4 separate wells (each injecting 1 million metric tons per year), the radius of CO 2 plume extends to a mere 3 km or less from injection wells. Meanwhile, the radius of pressure buildup ranges on the order of tens to a few hundreds of kilometers, depending on the magnitude of pressure buildup threshold that one would use to define the front. CO 2 plume commingling from different injection wells appears to occur 50 years post-injection, especially under scenarios with narrowly spaced (i.e., < 5 km apart) injection well locations. Findings from sensitivity cases on the well spacing suggest that storage formations modeled would require different well spacing to avoid fracture pressure thresholds. For instance, modeled storage formations with high fracture gradients (i.e., 0.8 psi/ft) would need less than 5–km well spacing, whereas those with lower fracture gradients (i.e., 0.7 psi/ft) would need approximately 20–km well spacing, based on assumed modeling parameters. Under stacked injection, the pressure challenges (described above) still exist but are more alleviated due to distributing the same injection volume across more available reservoir volume. These analyses demonstrate that stacked-sequence storage can effectively address the challenges, while still providing the same target CO 2 storage volumes and allowing a large number of storage projects to be deployed in the same basin by better utilizing the available storage resource across different reservoir depths. Among cases modeled, the resulting pressure buildup front is most suppressed when each storage project distributes injection volumes over several wells, each of which injects a portion of the total CO 2 across the stacked sequence. This strategy results in the smallest CO 2 aerial footprint amongst scenarios evaluated but also shows the largest reduction in the pressure buildup at the top of perforation at the injection wells (upwards of approximately 42 percent compared to the commercial-scale single-formation storage), the result of which is crucial to maintain caprock integrity. The findings presented by this research draw attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders to foster the upscaling and deployment of CCS. These analyses provide insights into required decision-making when considering multi-project deployment in a shared basin. Because these analyses evaluate a very specific geologic situation, they bear further investigations across other geologic situations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Overview of NASA ISRU Plans, Priorites, and Activities

Introduction:The National Aeronautics andSpace Administration (NASA) of the United States ofAmerica (US) has initiated the Artemis Moon to Marsprogram to send astronauts (the first woman andperson of color) back to the lunar surface, create asustainable human lunar exploration program, andlead the first human exploration mission to the Marssurface in the 2030’s [1]. A major objective of thisprogram is to characterize the resources that exist onthe Moon and Mars, and learn how to utilize them forsustained and affordable exploration. Commonlyknown as In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), thesearch for, acquisition, and processing of resources inspace has the potential to greatly reduce thedependency on transporting mission consumables andinfrastructure from Earth, thereby reducing missioncosts, risks, and dependency on Earth.ISRU is Enabling: Through the extraction andprocessing of resources into mission commoditiessuch as rocket propellants, life support consumables,and fuel cell reactants, ISRU enhances and evolvesthe cis-lunar, lander, and surface transportationsystems required for human exploration; expandingand enhancing HOW humans can explore and returnfrom the Moon. Through the extraction andprocessing of resources into metals, silicon, and othermanufacturing and construction feedstock, ISRUenhances and allows for the expansion of criticalinfrastructure using in situ manufacturing andconstruction capabilities that influence WHAT humanscan do on the Moon and in cis-lunar space. Becauseof this, ISRU supports and enables commercialinvolvement beyond NASA and governmentalagencies by both lowering the cost of sustainedtransportation to/from/on the Moon as well assupporting the market required for needing thesetransportation systems. Strategic Framework:To achieve this vision,NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate(STMD) ensures the coordinated development ofISRU and other critical space and surfaceinfrastructure elements such as propulsion, power,manufacturing, construction, and robotics through theStrategic Technology Architecture Roundtable(STAR) process. Through STAR, an integratedframework and process has been created allowing forcapabilities and technologies to be linked andassessed, gaps to be identified, specifications andmetrics to be established, and provide a means toprioritize and implement technology development andmissions. A critical part of the STAR effort has beenthe establishment of the Strategic Framework thatorganizes all work under four major Thrusts (Go,Land, Live, and Explore) and identifies the drivingOutcomes for each of these Thrusts. From the Thrustsand Outcomes, all work can be categorized and linkedbetween Capability Areas, and Technology Gaps canbe identified and addressed (Figure 1.)Figure 1. Strategic Framework and STAR FrameworkISRU Envisioned Future: To drive thedevelopment of technologies and capabilities, theSTAR process starts with establishing a ‘grand vision’of where each Outcome and Capability is aiming tobe considered complete. For ISRU, the EnvisionedFuture is “Scalable ISRU production/utilizationcapabilities including sustainable commodities on thelunar and Mars Surface”. This involves starting with10’s of metric tons of products, but evolves into 100’sto 1000’s of metric tons of water, oxygen, propellants,construction and manufacturing feedstock, andcommodities for habitat and food production andoperations. For ISRU, the ‘Prospect to Product’philosophy starts with Destination Reconnaissance &Resource Assessment, followed by ResourceAcquisition, Isolation, and Preparation, leading intoResource Processing (which is further subdivided intomission consumables and feedstocks for constructionand manufacturing). The ISRU Envisioned Futurealso considers what resources are available andattempts to address what and when these resourceswill be evaluated and harnessed, as well asconsidering which products/commodities can beobtained for early use and which ones require moretime and/or users of refined products.It Takes an Architecture: ISRU does not existon its own. By definition, it requires customers/users SHORT TITLE HERE: A. B. Author and C. D. Authorto use the products/commodities produced by ISRUsystems. Also, for an ISRU capability to exist, itmust obtain products and services from other systemsand infrastructure. An important aspect of the STARprocess and the ISRU Envisioned Futures Prioritiesstrategy is to identify and link all of these systems andcapabilities to achieve the desired end state (Figure2).Figure 2. ISRU as Part of a Larger ArchitectureISRU Capability Drivers: The guidingprinciples for NASA’s Space TechnologyDevelopment for Artemis are to develop criticaltechnologies and capabilities that enable (i) asustainable Lunar surface presence, (ii) the future goalof sending humans to Mars, and (iii) promotingcritical technologies to enable future science andcommercial missions. It is a major goal of theArtemis campaign to establish some sort of base campat the lunar South Pole by approximately the end ofthe decade. The ISRU Envisioned Futures Prioritiesstrategy is aligned with the Artemis campaign todevelop and demonstrate ISRU capabilities in thistimeframe that could lead to sustained surfaceoperations, infrastructure growth, and commercialoperations in the next decade (Figure 3).Figure 3. ISRU Dual Path to Full Implementation and CommercializationState of the Art and Gaps: To achieve theenvisioned future, an extensive effort was performedto understand the State of the Art (SOA) for ISRUgoing back decades, and to assess the SOA against thenear and long-term goals and objectives of the ISRUStrategic Outcome objectives. While the releasedISRU Envisioned Futures Priorities only includes atop-level definition of both the SOA and Gaps, furtherinformation on these for ISRU can be found in theISRU Gap Assessment Study performed for theInternational Space Exploration Coordination Group(ISECG) [2]. To provide further guidance to industryand academia, a top level assessment was performedand provide that divides critical areas of ISRUcapabilities and technologies into 3 categories:Significant Funding, Partially Covered/MoreRequired, and Limited/No Funded Activities.Envisioned Future Priorities- Next Steps forISRU: While a significant amount of work over abroad range of technology areas has been performedover the last several years for lunar ISRU, to reach theenvisioned future for ISRU, a lot more work isrequired at the technology level leading to bothsystems and technology demonstrations in the nearfuture. To guide investments within NASA, industry,and academia, 5 specific areas of high priority wereidentified. These are:1.Complete development of the Water and Oxygen Mining Paths and close technology gaps, with emphasis on oxygen extraction from Highland regolith and parallel paths for polar water mining.2.Expand development of metal extraction and feedstock for manufacturing and construction, with emphasis on aluminum and initial/easy to obtain/make construction feedstocks leading to more refined metals and other regolith resources. Also, evaluate biologically inspired/derived technologies in bio-mining, bio-plastic, and other feedstock commodities.3.Ensure the resource assessment needed for future ISRU commercial operations is coordinated with both near/long-term science objectives as well as Artemis mission locations of interest.4.Initiate NASA and industry-led system-level analyses, integration, and testing activities for ISRU capabilities. While significant work has been performed at the technology and subsystemlevel, it is now important to understand how these technology investments can be leveraged and utilized in actual systems and applications5.Initiate lunar ISRU technology flight demonstrations leading to initial ‘Pilot Plant’ end-to-end production capability demonstrations, led by industry

ISRU↗

Plant Diversity and Fertilizer Management Shape the Belowground Microbiome of Native Grass Bioenergy Feedstocks

Plants may actively cultivate microorganisms in their roots and rhizosphere that enhance their nutrition. To develop cropping strategies that substitute mineral fertilizers for beneficial root symbioses, we must first understand how microbial communities associated with plant roots differ among plant taxa and how they respond to fertilization. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and rhizobacteria are of particular interest because they enhance nutrient availability to plants and perform a suite of nutrient cycling functions. The purpose of this experiment is to examine the root and soil microbiome in a longterm switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) biofuel feedstock experiment and determine how AM fungi and rhizobacteria respond to plant diversity and soil fertility. We hypothesize that intra- and interspecific plant diversity, nitrogen fertilization (+N), and their interaction will influence the biomass and community composition of AM fungi and rhizobacteria. We further hypothesize that +N will reduce the abundance of nitrogenase-encoding nifH genes on the rhizoplane. Roots and soils were sampled from three switchgrass cultivars (Cave-in-Rock, Kanlow, Southlow) grown in monoculture, intraspecific mixture, and interspecific planting mixtures with either Andropogon gerardii or diverse native tallgrass prairie species. Molecular sequencing was performed on root and soil samples, fatty acid extractions were assessed to determine microbial biomass, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was performed on nifH genes from the rhizoplane. Sequence data determined core AM fungal and bacterial microbiomes and indicator taxa for plant diversity and +N treatments. We found that plant diversity and +N influenced AM fungal biomass and community structure. Across all plant diversity treatments, +N reduced the biomass of AM fungi and nifH gene abundance by more than 40%. The AM fungal genus Scutellospora was an indicator for +N, with relative abundance significantly greater under +N and in monoculture treatments. Community composition of rhizobacteria was influenced by plant diversity but not by +N. Verrucomicrobia and Proteobacteria were the dominant bacterial phyla in both roots and soils. Our findings provide evidence that soil fertility and plant diversity structure the root and soil microbiome. Optimization of soil communities for switchgrass production must take into account differences among cultivars and their unique responses to shifts in soil fertility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A GRACE ‐based assessment of interannual groundwater dynamics in the C ommunity L and M odel

Abstract The estimation of groundwater storage variations is important for quantifying available water resources and managing storage surpluses to alleviate storage deficiencies during droughts. This is particularly true in semi‐arid regions, where multiyear droughts can be common. To complement the local information provided by soil moisture and well level measurements, land models such as the Community Land Model (CLM) can be used to simulate regional scale water storage variations. CLM includes a bulk aquifer model to simulate saturated water storage dynamics below the model soil column. Aquifer storage increases when it receives recharge from the overlying soil column, and decreases due to lateral flow (i.e., base flow) and capillary rise. In this study, we examine the response of the CLM aquifer model to transitions between low and high recharge inputs, and show that the model simulates unrealistic long‐period behavior relative to total water storage (TWS) observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We attribute the model's poor response to large wetting events to the lack of a finite lower boundary in the bulk aquifer model. We show that by removing the bulk aquifer model and adding a zero‐flux boundary condition at the base of the soil column, good agreement with GRACE observations can be achieved. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of simulated total water storage to the depth at which the zero‐flux boundary is applied, i.e., the thickness of the soil column. Based on comparisons to GRACE, an optimal soil thickness map is constructed. Simulations using the modified CLM with the derived soil thickness map are shown to perform as well or better than standard CLM simulations. The improvements in simulated, climatically induced, long‐period water storage variability will reduce the uncertainty in GRACE‐based estimates of anthropogenic groundwater depletion.

Swenson, S. C.↗

Establishing radiation therapy advanced practice in New Zealand

Introduction: Advanced practice (AP) is of increasing interest to many radiation therapists (RTs) both nationally and internationally. In New Zealand, initial research (2005–2008) showed strong support for the development of an AP role for medical radiation technologists (MRTs). Here, we report on a nationwide survey in which RTs validated and prioritised nine AP profiles for future development. Methods: All registered RTs in New Zealand (n = 260) were invited to take part in a survey in December 2011; 73 of whom returned a complete response. Results: RTs supported the implementation of AP roles in New Zealand and the requirement of a Master's degree qualification to underpin clinical knowledge. Most RTs endorsed the criteria attributed to each of the nine proposed AP profiles. The study identified that activities may qualify as either advanced practice or standard practice depending on the department. All participants agreed that an advanced practitioner should be a leader in the field, able to initiate and facilitate future developments within as well as outside this specific role. Acceptance of the AP roles by RTs and other health professionals as well as the availability of resources for successful implementation, were concerns expressed by some RTs. Conclusion: The authors recommend (1) the development of one scope of practice titled ‘advanced practitioner’ with generic and specialist criteria for each profile as the future career pathway, (2) promotion and support for the AP pathway by the New Zealand Institute of Medical Radiation Technology and the New Zealand Medical Radiation Technologists Board.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

OpenMP in VASP: Threading and SIMD

Abstract The Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP) is a widely used electronic structure code that originally exploits process‐level parallelism through the Message Passing Interface (MPI) for work distribution within and across nodes. Architectural changes of modern parallel processors urge programmers to address thread‐ and data‐level parallelism as well to benefit most from the available compute resources within a node. We describe for VASP how to approach for an MPI + OpenMP parallelization including data‐level parallelism through OpenMP SIMD constructs together with a generic high‐level vector coding scheme. We can demonstrate an improved scalability of VASP and more than 20% gain over the MPI‐only version as well as a 2× increased performance of collective operations using the multiple‐endpoint MPI feature. The high‐level vector coding scheme applied to VASP's general gradient approximation routine gives up 9× performance gain on AVX512 platforms with the Intel compiler.

Wende, Florian↗

An extensible vector toolkit and parts library for advanced engineering of plant genomes

Abstract Plant biotechnology is rife with new advances in transformation and genome engineering techniques. A common requirement for delivery and coordinated expression in plant cells, however, places the design and assembly of transformation constructs at a crucial juncture as desired reagent suites grow more complex. Modular cloning principles have simplified some aspects of vector design, yet many important components remain unavailable or poorly adapted for rapid implementation in biotechnology research. Here, we describe a universal Golden Gate cloning toolkit for vector construction. The toolkit chassis is compatible with the widely accepted Phytobrick standard for genetic parts, and supports assembly of arbitrarily complex T‐DNAs through improved capacity, positional flexibility, and extensibility in comparison to extant kits. We also provision a substantial library of newly adapted Phytobricks, including regulatory elements for monocot and dicot gene expression, and coding sequences for genes of interest such as reporters, developmental regulators, and site‐specific recombinases. Finally, we use a series of dual‐luciferase assays to measure contributions to expression from promoters, terminators, and from cross‐cassette interactions attributable to enhancer elements in certain promoters. Taken together, these publicly available cloning resources can greatly accelerate the testing and deployment of new tools for plant engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation of ACTS into sPHENIX Track Reconstruction

Abstract sPHENIX is a high energy nuclear physics experiment under construction at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The primary physics goals of sPHENIX are to study the quark-gluon-plasma, as well as the partonic structure of protons and nuclei, by measuring jets, their substructure, and heavy flavor hadrons in $$p$$ p $$+$$ + $$p$$ p , p + Au, and Au + Au collisions. sPHENIX will collect approximately 300 PB of data over three run periods, to be analyzed using available computing resources at BNL; thus, performing track reconstruction in a timely manner is a challenge due to the high occupancy of heavy ion collision events. The sPHENIX experiment has recently implemented the A Common Tracking Software (ACTS) track reconstruction toolkit with the goal of reconstructing tracks with high efficiency and within a computational budget of 5 s per minimum bias event. This paper reports the performance status of ACTS as the default track fitting tool within sPHENIX, including discussion of the first implementation of a time projection chamber geometry within ACTS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Chapter 2: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

The global geothermal power market has shown significant growth since the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 gigawatts electric (GWe) by the end of 2021 (GEA, 2016). The global geothermal power plant turbine market is dominated by a small number of manufacturers. Between 2005 and 2015, 82% of the geothermal steam turbines were manufactured in Japan, and 74% of the geothermal binary cycle turboexpanders were manufactured in Israel. During this period, the United States played an important role in the global trade flow of fully assembled turbine units and turbine parts, with a high volume of imports and exports. Another significant growth area was in Italian turbine/turboexpander manufacturers, who have increased their market share in the last couple of years. One other important change in the manufacturing market was in Turkey, where the bonus on feed-in-tariff (FIT) for domestic hardware components boosted the national manufacturing sector between 2010 and 2020. When planning geothermal power projects, developers customize their power plant size to fit the available geothermal resource capacity. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize the efficiency and utilization of resource and revenue production. The rest of the power plant components such as heat exchangers (HX), water-cooled cooling towers (WCCT), or air-cooled condensers (ACC) are then chosen to complement the turbine size and design. These one-off manufacturing custom design turbines have relatively higher manufacturing set-up costs, longer lead times, and higher capital costs than the standard design turbines manufactured in larger volumes. However, turbines produced in standard increments and in larger manufacturing volumes could result in lower costs per turbine, but potentially lower efficiency. Based on pipeline projects and resource assessments, there is significant potential value in creating standard turbine sizes that could offer an economic advantage, as is done for modular microturbines.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bumble bee colony growth and reproduction depend on local flower dominance and natural habitat area in the surrounding landscape

Conservation measures for bees often focus on increasing the diversity and abundance of floral resources. But it has not been clear if observed benefits of floral enhancements result from greater population growth, which is critical for the long-term success of conservation, or from mobile foragers aggregating in high-resource locations. Experimental evidence is only beginning to emerge in favor of the former mechanism and it is not well-established how different aspects of floral resources affect population growth. For example, bumble bee colonies may benefit from greater overall floral abundance, richness, or relative dominance of resource species. Because bumble bees are highly mobile, resource variability in the surrounding landscape is also important for colonies and may mediate local-scale effects. We experimentally assessed the growth and reproduction of bumble bee colonies (Bombus impatiens) deployed in grasslands in different local- and landscape-scale resource environments. Furthermore, we found that floral dominance, rather than the overall abundance or richness of floral resources, was the most important local factor for colony growth and reproduction. This may reflect more efficient foraging on a few numerically dominant and abundant resource species. Local- and landscape-scale predictor variables had interacting effects on colony growth and reproduction, suggesting that foraging distance depends on where in the landscape efficiently used resources are located. Our results provide further evidence that conservation strategies aimed at enhancing floral resources can increase bumble bee population growth. However, the most effective form of floral enhancement may vary among bee species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Impact of soiling on Si and CdTe PV modules: Case study in different Brazil climate zones

Soiling, particulate accumulation on photovoltaic (PV) module surfaces, reduces the available solar resource and the resulting generated device power. This case-study summarizes initial results of 5-year research on the contrasting soiling conditions in the tropical, subtropical, and semi-arid climates in Brazil. A major objective is to present a case study of the effects of soiling on PV module performance in different Brazil climate zones that represent the primary areas for the current and expanding Brazil solar installations. For this, the paper presents methodologies to quantify the soiling ratio (SRatio) and soiling rate (SRate) for two representative commercial technologies, polycrystalline or multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) and thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, through soiling monitoring stations deployed in the selected climate regions. An aim is to add to the growing soiling-research knowledge base through addressing these key factors and their relationships to critical electrical, solar resource, thermal, and local meteorological and environmental parameters. This paper presents, evaluates, and compares soiling rates and losses in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (Equatorial Tropical: 19.92° S, 43.99° W), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul (Humid-Subtropical: 30.05° S, 51.17° W), and Brotas de Macaúbas, Bahia (Semi-Arid: 12.00° S, 42.63° W). The results show that soiling is moderate in all 3-regions, for example with 0.1%/day < SRate < 0.2%/day for Belo Horizonte. Precipitation dominates the cleaning of the modules in the summertime in this climate zone, while it is the major factor year-round in Rio Grande do Sul. Wind is the major issue mitigating the soiling accumulation for the Bahia installation. The methodology incorporates several key refinements, including the normalization and adjustment for the meteorological parameters (temperature, irradiance, wind, precipitation). The evaluations include the region-specific differing effects of non-uniform soiling, natural cleaning, and ambient temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-performance of CrOx/HZSM-5 catalyst on non-oxidative dehydrogenation of C 2 H 6 to C 2 H 4 : Effect of supporting materials and associated mechanism

Ethane (C 2 H 6 ) is an important inexpensive and widely available fuel resource. High-value use of C 2 H 6 has become increasingly important. Catalytic dehydrogenation of C 2 H 6 to ethylene (C 2 H 4 ) has attracted much attention in recent years due to its high energy efficiency. The direct non-oxidative ethane dehydrogenation (EDH) to ethylene is a promising strategy to produce ethylene and hydrogen at the same time. In this research, Cr/HZSM-5 catalyst with superior stability was synthesized and exhibited an C 2 H 6 converting activity of 1.47 µmol/(g·s) with the corresponding C 2 H 6 conversion and C 2 H 4 selectivity of 37.3% and 90%, respectively. Herein, the synergistic effects of Si and Al in supporting materials were investigated by comparing Cr/HZSM-5 with SBA-15, SiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 supported ones, which contains either Al or Si with different structures. Characterization results indicated that the intimate interactions between Cr and support significantly improved the catalytic performance. The presence of Al in the support promoted the formation of more active Cr 6+ species by forming the aluminum-chromium-chromate (Cr-O-Al) structures which were more efficient to active C-H bond and form (Cr, Al)-OH groups during the reaction. Meanwhile, the formation of internal silanol group with the dissociative adsorbed H* could stabilized the active Cr phase to achieve a stable dehydrogenation activity.

03 NATURAL GAS↗