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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Herbaceous Feedstock 2018 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Case for Intelligent Propulsion Control for Fast Engine Response

Damaged aircraft have occasionally had to rely solely on thrust to maneuver as a consequence of losing hydraulic power needed to operate flight control surfaces. The lack of successful landings in these cases inspired research into more effective methods of utilizing propulsion-only control. That research demonstrated that one of the major contributors to the difficulty in landing is the slow response of the engines as compared to using traditional flight control. To address this, research is being conducted into ways of making the engine more responsive under emergency conditions. This can be achieved by relaxing controller limits, adjusting schedules, and/or redesigning the regulators to increase bandwidth. Any of these methods can enable faster response at the potential expense of engine life and increased likelihood of stall. However, an example sensitivity analysis revealed a complex interaction of the limits and the difficulty in predicting the way to achieve the fastest response. The sensitivity analysis was performed on a realistic engine model, and demonstrated that significantly faster engine response can be achieved compared to standard Bill of Material control. However, the example indicates the need for an intelligent approach to controller limit adjustment in order for the potential to be fulfilled.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

Estimation Technique of Cs Retention Fraction in Irradiated Nuclear Fuel with Intact/Damaged Form

Even in the case of severe accident such as in TMI-2 or Chernobyl-4 or Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station, waste partitioning in the decommission process or special nuclear material (SNM) accountancy in molten core material is important. Though Cs-137 concentration information is used for burnup estimation in conventional spent nuclear fuels, it could not be applied for damaged nuclear fuel of severe accidents because of both a large release fraction of Cs and significant change of its shape and form by core melting. The ratio of {sup 134}Cs/{sup 137}Cs has often been used as an index of the burnup in the cleanup of TMI-2 and the Chernobyl Drum Assay System in Chernobyl-4 and other cleanup activities, assuming that the Cs isotope ratio inside the fuel matrix would be the same as in the fuel debris, whereas its retention fraction would vary. Cs retention fraction information would be very important for the reliability of the burnup estimation as well as for the severe accident safety analysis. In the present research, a principle of new technique to estimate the Cs retention fraction is proposed and examined by sensitivity analysis of the FP inventory in conventional BWR irradiated fuel numerically, and validated by comparing the past experimental data based on gamma spectrometry. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluating the energy impact potential of energy efficiency measures for retrofit applications: A case study with U.S. medium office buildings

Quantifying the energy savings of various energy efficiency measures (EEMs) for an energy retrofit project often necessitates an energy audit and detailed whole building energy modeling to evaluate the EEMs; however, this is often cost-prohibitive for small and medium buildings. In order to provide a defined guideline for projects with assumed common baseline characteristics, this paper applies a sensitivity analysis method to evaluate the impact of individual EEMs and groups these into packages to produce deep energy savings for a sample prototype medium office building across 15 climate zones in the United States. We start with one baseline model for each climate zone and nine candidate EEMs with a range of efficiency levels for each EEM. Three energy performance indicators (EPIs) are defined, which are annual electricity use intensity, annual natural gas use intensity, and annual energy cost. Then, a Standard Regression Coefficient (SRC) sensitivity analysis method is applied to determine the sensitivity of each EEM with respect to the three EPIs, and the relative sensitivity of all EEMs are calculated to evaluate their energy impacts. For the selected range of efficiency levels, the results indicate that the EEMs with higher energy impacts (i.e., higher sensitivity) in most climate zones are high-performance windows, reduced interior lighting power, and reduced interior plug and process loads. However, the sensitivity of the EEMs also vary by climate zone and EPI; for example, improved opaque envelope insulation and efficiency of cooling and heating systems are found to have a high energy impact in cold and hot climates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An incremental strategy for calculating consistent discrete CFD sensitivity derivatives

In this preliminary study involving advanced computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes, an incremental formulation, also known as the 'delta' or 'correction' form, is presented for solving the very large sparse systems of linear equations which are associated with aerodynamic sensitivity analysis. For typical problems in 2D, a direct solution method can be applied to these linear equations which are associated with aerodynamic sensitivity analysis. For typical problems in 2D, a direct solution method can be applied to these linear equations in either the standard or the incremental form, in which case the two are equivalent. Iterative methods appear to be needed for future 3D applications; however, because direct solver methods require much more computer memory than is currently available. Iterative methods for solving these equations in the standard form result in certain difficulties, such as ill-conditioning of the coefficient matrix, which can be overcome when these equations are cast in the incremental form; these and other benefits are discussed. The methodology is successfully implemented and tested in 2D using an upwind, cell-centered, finite volume formulation applied to the thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. Results are presented for two laminar sample problems: (1) transonic flow through a double-throat nozzle; and (2) flow over an isolated airfoil.

Korivi, Vamshi Mohan↗

Discrete sensitivity derivatives of the Navier-Stokes equations with a parallel Krylov solver

This paper solves an 'incremental' form of the sensitivity equations derived by differentiating the discretized thin-layer Navier Stokes equations with respect to certain design variables of interest. The equations are solved with a parallel, preconditioned Generalized Minimal RESidual (GMRES) solver on a distributed-memory architecture. The 'serial' sensitivity analysis code is parallelized by using the Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) programming model, domain decomposition techniques, and message-passing tools. Sensitivity derivatives are computed for low and high Reynolds number flows over a NACA 1406 airfoil on a 32-processor Intel Hypercube, and found to be identical to those computed on a single-processor Cray Y-MP. It is estimated that the parallel sensitivity analysis code has to be run on 40-50 processors of the Intel Hypercube in order to match the single-processor processing time of a Cray Y-MP.

Ajmani, Kumud↗

Identification of key parameters controlling demographically structured vegetation dynamics in a land surface model: CLM4.5(FATES)

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating global carbon cycles and is a key component of the Earth system models (ESMs) that aim to project Earth's future climate. In the last decade, the vegetation component within ESMs has witnessed great progress from simple “big-leaf” approaches to demographically structured approaches, which have a better representation of plant size, canopy structure, and disturbances. These demographically structured vegetation models typically have a large number of input parameters, and sensitivity analysis is needed to quantify the impact of each parameter on the model outputs for a better understanding of model behavior. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to diagnose the Community Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator, or CLM4.5(FATES). Specifically, we quantified the first- and second-order sensitivities of the model parameters to outputs that represent simulated growth and mortality as well as carbon fluxes and stocks for a tropical site with an extent of 1 x 1°. While the photosynthetic capacity parameter (V c,max25 )is found to be important for simulated carbon stocks and fluxes, we also show the importance of carbon storage and allometry parameters, which determine survival and growth strategies within the model. The parameter sensitivity changes with different sizes of trees and climate conditions. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the dynamics of the next generation of demographically enabled vegetation models within ESMs to improve model parameterization and structure for better model fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model

Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of the ACCP Value Framework Science Benefit Score

NASA’s priorities for Earth Science are informed by the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. In that document, five Designated Observables are identified as priorities for implementation: Aerosols, Cloud-Convection-Precipitation, Surface Biology, Mass Change, and Surface Deformation Change. In 2019, NASA initiated four multi-year studies to formulate, assess, and recommend potential Observing System concepts that are responsive to the recommendations of the Earth Science Decadal Survey. The Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) study investigates opportunities for synergistic science resulting from implementations that combine both Aerosols science objectives and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation science objectives. For the ACCP study, a Value Framework was designed to introduce structure, transparency, and traceability in the mission down-select decision process. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis that was conducted to characterize the behavior of the science benefit score of the ACCP Value Framework. it includes derivations of the sensitivity analysis equations, numerical analyses of the behavior of the combined benefit score, and the conclusions drawn from the results of the work that was conducted. The results of this analysis were key to ensuring that the aggregated science benefit scores would enable the team to differentiate and contrast across concepts.

John McLaughlan↗

Techno-economic analysis of biomass value-added processing informed by pilot scale de-ashing of paper sludge feedstock

Paper sludge biomass represents an underutilized feedstock rich in pulped and processed cellulose which is currently a waste stream with significant disposal cost to industry for landfilling services. Effective fractionation of the cellulose from paper sludge presents an opportunity to yield cellulose as feedstock for value-added processes. A novel approach to cellulose fractionation is the sidehill screening system, herein studied at the pilot-plant scale. Composition analysis determined ash removal and carbohydrate retention of both sidehill and high-performance benchtop screening systems. Sidehill screening resulted in greater carbohydrates retention relative to benchtop screening (90% vs 66%) and similar ash removal (95% vs 98%). Techno-economic analysis for production of sugar syrup yielded a minimum selling price of $331/metric ton of sugar syrup including disposal savings, significantly less than a commercial sugar syrup without fractionation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis showed that screening conditions played a significant role in economic feasibility for cellulosic yield and downstream processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Intumescent coating modeling

A thermal response mathematical model for an intumescent coating system is developed. The model predicts indepth temperature profiles of the solid as a function of the fundamental kinetic, mass, and heat-transfer properties of the original coating system. In the model, swelling is based on an empirical function of the paint's weight loss. The model is used to describe the effectiveness of the coating for thermal protection. Using the thermal response time at the backface of the material as a criterion, a sensitivity analysis is made with respect to variation in individual properties, such as total expansion, to provide a guide for designing improved intumescing agents. The sensitivity analysis shows that total expansion and rate of expansion, along with other material properties, are important parameters for providing thermal protection. Finally, backface temperature histories are predicted and compared to experimental data obtained from a representative fire environment. Predicted temperatures agree within a maximum error of plus or minus 20%.

Cagliostro, D. E.↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Ground-Holding Strategies

The Ground-Holding Policy Problem (GHPP) has become a matter of great interest in recent years because of the high cost incurred by aircraft suffering from delays. Ground-holding keeps a flight on the ground at the departure airport if it is known it will be unable to land at the arrival airport. The GBPP is determining how many flights should be held on the ground before take-off and for how long, in order to minimize the cost of delays. When the uncertainty associated with airport landing capacity is considered, the GHPP becomes complicated. A decision support system that incorporates this uncertainty, solves the GHPP quickly, and gives good results would be of great help to air traffic management. The purpose of this thesis is to modify and analyze a probabilistic ground-holding algorithm by applying it to two common cases of capacity reduction. A graphical user interface was developed and sensitivity analysis was done on the algorithm, in order to see how it may be implemented in practice. The sensitivity analysis showed the algorithm was very sensitive to the number of probabilistic capacity scenarios used and to the cost ratio of air delay to ground delay. The algorithm was not particularly sensitive to the number of periods that the time horizon was divided into. In terms of cost savings, a ground-holding policy was the most beneficial when demand greatly exceeded airport capacity. When compared to other air traffic flow strategies, the ground-holding algorithm performed the best and was the most consistent under various situations. The algorithm can solve large problems quickly and efficiently on a personal computer.

Sheel, Minakshi↗

Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2 sequestration site

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed a suite of tools to assess and manage risk at CO 2 sequestration sites. The NRAP tool suite includes the Aquifer Impact Model (AIM), which evaluates the potential for groundwater impacts from leaks of CO 2 and brine through abandoned wellbores. There are two aquifer reduced-order models (ROMs) included with the AIM tool, a confined alluvium aquifer, and an unconfined carbonate aquifer. The models accept aquifer parameters as a range of variable inputs so they may have broad applicability. The generic aquifer models may be used at the early stages of site selection, when site-specific data is not available. Guidelines have been developed for determining when the generic ROMs might be applicable to a new site. This work considers the application of the AIM to predicting the impact of CO 2 or brine leakage were it to occur at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Results of the model sensitivity analysis can help guide characterization efforts; the hydraulic parameters and leakage source term magnitude are more sensitive than clay fraction or cation exchange capacity. Sand permeability was the only hydraulic parameter measured at the IBDP site. More information on the other hydraulic parameters could reduce uncertainty in risk estimates. Some non-adjustable parameters are significantly different for the ROM than for the observations at the IBDP site. The generic ROMs could be made more useful to a wider range of sites if the initial conditions and no-impact threshold values were adjustable parameters.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis of Historical Power Outages of the United States and the National Risk Index

Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). However, the relationship between National Risk Index (NRI) and power outages is yet to be explored. This work analyzes the NRI indices such as Risk, Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience with several resilience metrics such as event duration, impact duration, recovery duration, impact level, impact rate, recovery rate, recovery to impact ratio, and area under the outage curves to see the correlation of NRI indices with the resilience metrics. The results show that NRI indices such as Risk and Expected Annual Loss increase with the increase of event duration, impact duration, and recovery duration. All Other metrics are indifferent to the change in the Risk and EAL ratings. The results also show that there is no strong relationship between all the metrics and community resilience and social vulnerability. This work also performed the sensitivity analysis of the extreme event selection process. This sensitivity analysis reveals that the way of identifying extreme events has a significant impact on the evaluation of the events.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

Efficiency and Output Power Sensitivity to Control Parameter Variations in an LCC-Series Wireless Power Transfer System

In wireless power transfer (WPT) systems, output power (Pout) can be controlled through input parameters such as, input voltage (Vin) , duty cycle (d) , and switching frequency (fsw) . The impact of these control parameters on the overall system efficiency has not been explored in previous studies. This paper focuses on the efficiency (η) and Pout sensitivity to these control parameter variations in an LCC-Series tuned WPT system. There are multiple combinations of Vin, d , and fsw that can achieve a specified target Pout . However, it is important to determine the optimal combination of these control variables that will yield the maximum η for a target Pout . A MATLAB/Simulink model is built to calculate and measure η and Pout . In order to achieve this result, several simulations are run where Vin,d , and fsw are swept across a wide range to cover all possible combinations. MATLAB's Sensitivity Analysis toolbox is used to evaluate how the parameters influence the model's output. Finally, an experimental prototype is implemented. The optimal values acquired using the sensitivity analysis is then plugged into the hardware prototype and compared with the simulation. The results obtained confirm the validity of the proposed method.

Harave, Sudarshan↗

Survey of DAKOTA's V&V Capabilities in the Simulation of Residual Stresses in a Simple Composite Structure

Process-induced residual stresses occur in composite structures composed of dissimilar materials. As these residual stresses can result in fracture, their consideration when designing composite parts is necessary. However, the experimental determination of residual stresses in prototype parts can be time and cost prohibitive. Alternatively, it is possible for computational tools to predict potential residual stresses. Therefore, a process modeling methodology was developed and implemented into Sandia National Laboratories' SIERRA/SolidMechanics code. This method can be used to predict the process-induced stresses in any composite structure, regardless of material composition or geometric complexity. However, to develop confidence in these predictions, they must be rigorously validated. Specifically, sensitivity studies should be completed to define which model parameters are critical to the residual stress predictions. Then, the uncertainty associated with those critical parameters should be quantified and processed through the model to develop stress-state predictions encompassing the most important sources of physical variability. Numerous sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods exist, each offering specific strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, the objective of this study is to compare the performance of several accepted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods during the manufacturing process simulation of a composite structure. The examined methods include simple sampling techniques as well as more sophisticated surrogate approaches. The computational costs are assessed for each of the examined methods, and the results of the study indicate that the surrogate approaches are the most computationally efficient validation methods and are ideal for future residual stress investigations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗