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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A three-dimensional model of corotating streams in the solar wind. 1: Theoretical foundations

The theoretical and mathematical background pertinent to the study of steady, corotating solar wind structure in all three spatial dimensions (3-D) is discussed. The dynamical evolution of the plasma in interplanetary space (defined as the region beyond roughly 35 solar radii where the flow is supersonic) is approximately described by the nonlinear, single fluid, polytropic (magneto-) hydrodynamic equations. Efficient numerical techniques for solving this complex system of coupled, hyperbolic partial differential equations are outlined. The formulation is inviscid and nonmagnetic, but methods allow for the potential inclusion of both features with only modest modifications. One simple, highly idealized, hydrodynamic model stream is examined to illustrate the fundamental processes involved in the 3-D dynamics of stream evolution. Spatial variations in the rotational stream interaction mechanism were found to produce small nonradial flows on a global scale that lead to the transport of mass, energy, and momentum away from regions of relative compression and into regions of relative rarefaction.

Pizzo, V. J.↗

Solar array system for solar maximum mission

The paper describes the design of the solar array system (SAS) for the Solar Maximum Mission, the unique features of the SAS, and the results of its successful in-orbit operation. It is noted that the array was unique in that: (1) major weight concessions were made to produce a dynamically stiff array; (2) it was the first array designed to be compatible with the NASA Multimission Modular Spacecraft; (3) it is the first jettisonable solar array; and (4) it represents the first use of FEP-bonded overslides on a prime power array. It is concluded that the array performed as predicted with no evidence of the FEP causing any unusual array power degradations. In addition, the deployment and telemetry systems performed as designed.

Meese, R. A.↗

Vlasov simulations of kinetic Alfvén waves at proton kinetic scales

Kinetic Alfvén waves represent an important subject in space plasma physics, since they are thought to play a crucial role in the development of the turbulent energy cascade in the solar wind plasma at short wavelengths (of the order of the proton gyro radius ρ{sub p} and/or inertial length d{sub p} and beyond). A full understanding of the physical mechanisms which govern the kinetic plasma dynamics at these scales can provide important clues on the problem of the turbulent dissipation and heating in collisionless systems. In this paper, hybrid Vlasov-Maxwell simulations are employed to analyze in detail the features of the kinetic Alfvén waves at proton kinetic scales, in typical conditions of the solar wind environment (proton plasma beta β{sub p} = 1). In particular, linear and nonlinear regimes of propagation of these fluctuations have been investigated in a single-wave situation, focusing on the physical processes of collisionless Landau damping and wave-particle resonant interaction. Interestingly, since for wavelengths close to d{sub p} and β{sub p} ≃ 1 (for which ρ{sub p} ≃ d{sub p}) the kinetic Alfvén waves have small phase speed compared to the proton thermal velocity, wave-particle interaction processes produce significant deformations in the core of the particle velocity distribution, appearing as phase space vortices and resulting in flat-top velocity profiles. Moreover, as the Eulerian hybrid Vlasov-Maxwell algorithm allows for a clean almost noise-free description of the velocity space, three-dimensional plots of the proton velocity distribution help to emphasize how the plasma departs from the Maxwellian configuration of thermodynamic equilibrium due to nonlinear kinetic effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Intelligent energy buildings based on RES and nanotechnology

The paper presents the design features, the energy modelling and optical performance details of two pilot Intelligent Energy Buildings, (IEB). Both are evolution of the Zero Energy Building (ZEB) concept. RES innovations backed up by signal processing, simulation models and ICT tools were embedded into the building structures in order to implement a new predictive energy management concept. In addition, nano-coatings, produced by TiO2 and ITO nano-particles, were deposited on the IEB structural elements and especially on the window panes and the PV glass covers. They exhibited promising SSP values which lowered the cooling loads and increased the PV modules yield. Both pilot IEB units were equipped with an on-line dynamic hourly solar radiation prediction model, implemented by sensors and the related software to manage effectively the energy source, the loads and the storage or the backup system. The IEB energy sources covered the thermal loads via a south façade embedded in the wall and a solar roof which consists of a specially designed solar collector type, while a PV generator is part of the solar roof, like a compact BIPV in hybrid configuration to a small wind turbine.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Status Report on Power System Transformation: A 21st Century Power Partnership Report

This report has three primary goals: (1) to articulate the concept of power system transformation; (2) to explore the current global landscape of ‘innovations’ that constitute power system transformation and provide evidence of how these innovations are emerging; and (3) to suggest an analytical framework for assessing the status of power system transformation on an on-going basis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar-Driven Supercritical CO2 Brayton Cycle Testing (ANC)

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) collaborated to conduct an investigation of the dynamic performance of a solar-driven supercritical CO2 (SCO2) Brayton cycle. This was performed on the SNL recompression closed Brayton cycle (RCBC) at the Nuclear Energy Systems Laboratory / Brayton Lab. Historical data were provided to CSIRO since the test assembly remained inoperable throughout the project. Also, multidimensional trade studies were generated using the SNL Recompression closed Brayton cycle Engineering and Trade Studies (RETS©) tool.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Corotating Magnetic Reconnection Site in Saturn’s Magnetosphere

Using measurements from the Cassini spacecraft in Saturn’s magnetosphere, we propose a 3D physical picture of a corotating reconnection site, which can only be driven by an internally generated source. Our results demonstrate that the corotating magnetic reconnection can drive an expansion of the current sheet in Saturn’s magnetosphere and, consequently, can produce Fermi acceleration of electrons. This reconnection site lasted for longer than one of Saturn’s rotation period. The long-lasting and corotating natures of the magnetic reconnection site at Saturn suggest fundamentally different roles of magnetic reconnection in driving magnetospheric dynamics (e.g., the auroral precipitation) from the Earth. Our corotating reconnection picture could also potentially shed light on the fast rotating magnetized plasma environments in the solar system and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Instrument systems for the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite

The NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite program for improving both methods needed to maintain the physical and chemical integrity of the upper atmosphere and techniques for the early detection of harmful changes in the ozone layer is discussed. Through satellite measurements, theoretical studies, and model analyses, the program will provide integrated global measurements of the chemistry, dynamics, and energetics of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. The 10 state-of-the-art instrument systems employed in the program are described, including the solar UV spectral irradiance monitor, the particle environment monitor, the cryogenic limb array etalon spectrometer, the wind imaging interferometer, and the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor.

Arnold, Ray J.↗

The Solar Probe mission

The Solar Probe will deliver a 133.5 kg science payload into a 4 R(S) perihelion solar polar orbit to explore in situ one of the last frontiers in the solar system - the solar corona. Using a payload of 12 scientific experiments, it will be possible to answer many long-standing fundamental problems concerning the structure and dynamics of the outer solar atmosphere, including the acceleration, storage, and transport of energetic particles near the sun and in the inner heliosphere.

Anderson, J.↗

Documenting Chemical Assimilation in a Basaltic Lava Flow

Lava channels are features seen throughout the inner Solar System, including on Earth, the Moon, and Mars. Flow emplacement is therefore a crucial process in the shaping of planetary surfaces. Many studies have investigated the dynamics of lava flow emplacement, both on Earth and on the Moon [1,2,3] but none have focused on how the compositional and structural characteristics of the substrate over which a flow was emplaced influenced its final flow morphology. Within the length of one flow, it is common for flows to change in morphology, a quality linked to lava rheology (a function of multiple factors including viscosity, temperature, composition, etc.). The relationship between rheology and temperature has been well-studied [4,5,6] but less is understood about the relationship between a pre-flow terrain's chemistry and how the interaction between this flow and the new flow might affect lava rheology and therefore emplacement dynamics. Lava erosion. Through visual observations of active terrestrial flows, lava erosion has been well-documented [i.e. 7,8,9,10]. Lava erosion is the process by which flow composition is altered as the active lava melts and assimilates the pre-flow terrain over which it moves. Though this process has been observed, there is only one instance of where it was been geochemically documented.

assimilation↗

Immersive Digital Twin Laboratory for Engineering Education (CRADA Final Report)

This project aimed to create an immersive digital twin laboratory that incorporates advanced tracking and visualization capabilities. In collaboration with Fort Lewis College, NREL designed a state-of-the-art physical visualization laboratory, developed a software platform to enable interaction with tracked physical objects in the laboratory, and provided proof-of-concept curricula that included manipulating these tracked objects. The project was initiated to address the growing need for innovative educational tools in engineering education. As renewable energy systems, particularly solar installations, become more complex, there is a pressing need to bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application. Traditional methods of teaching solar engineering concepts often fall short of providing students with a comprehensive, hands-on understanding. This immersive digital twin laboratory was conceived to fill that gap by creating a safe, non-energized setting where students can interact with augmented solar installation objects, gaining valuable insights into system performance, design, and maintenance. The project utilized extended reality (XR) technologies, including head-mounted displays (HMDs) and a whole-room optical motion tracking system, to connect physical objects with their digital twins in real time. The laboratory was equipped with MagicLeap 2 HMDs, supported by a Vicon Vero 2.2 Optical Tracking System, which provided precise 6-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) tracking. We developed a software platform to manage the interaction between the tracked physical objects and their virtual counterparts, enabling real-time data synchronization, object recognition, and virtual overlays. We designed the system to be flexible and extendable, allowing for future integration of additional objects and curriculum. This research advances the field of engineering education by demonstrating the potential of immersive digital twin environments. The laboratory provides a dynamic learning space where students can experiment, collaborate, and learn without the risks associated with live experimentation. The ability to simulate and manipulate solar installation objects under various conditions has broad implications for workforce development, particularly in renewable energy. The project also highlights the economic feasibility of using XR technologies in educational settings, offering a cost-effective solution for institutions looking to enhance their curriculum. By fostering a deeper understanding of solar energy systems, this work contributes to the broader goal of supporting the global energy transition and preparing the next generation of engineers and technicians.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar Power Ramp Events Detection Using an Optimized Swinging Door Algorithm: Preprint

Solar power ramp events (SPREs) are those that significantly influence the integration of solar power on non-clear days and threaten the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Accurately extracting solar power ramps becomes more important with increasing levels of solar power penetrations in power systems. In this paper, we develop an optimized swinging door algorithm (OpSDA) to detection. First, the swinging door algorithm (SDA) is utilized to segregate measured solar power generation into consecutive segments in a piecewise linear fashion. Then we use a dynamic programming approach to combine adjacent segments into significant ramps when the decision thresholds are met. In addition, the expected SPREs occurring in clear-sky solar power conditions are removed. Measured solar power data from Tucson Electric Power is used to assess the performance of the proposed methodology. OpSDA is compared to two other ramp detection methods: the SDA and the L1-Ramp Detect with Sliding Window (L1-SW) method. The statistical results show the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. OpSDA can significantly improve the performance of the SDA, and it can perform as well as or better than L1-SW with substantially less computation time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dynamics of Dust Particles Released from Oort Cloud Comets and Their Contribution to Radar Meteors

The Oort Cloud Comets (OCCs), exemplified by the Great Comet of 1997 (Hale-Bopp), are occasional visitors from the heatless periphery of the solar system. Previous works hypothesized that a great majority of OCCs must physically disrupt after one or two passages through the inner solar system, where strong thermal gradients can cause phase transitions or volatile pressure buildup. Here we study the fate of small debris particles produced by OCC disruptions to determine whether the imprints of a hypothetical population of OCC meteoroids can be found in the existing meteor radar data. We find that OCC particles with diameters D < or approx. 10 microns are blown out from the solar system by radiation pressure, while those with D > or approx. 1 mm have a very low Earth-impact probability. The intermediate particle sizes, D approx. 100 microns represent a sweet spot. About 1% of these particles orbitally evolve by Poynting-Robertson drag to reach orbits with semimajor axis a approx. 1 AU. They are expected to produce meteors with radiants near the apex of the Earth s orbital motion. We find that the model distributions of their impact speeds and orbits provide a good match to radar observations of apex meteors, except for the eccentricity distribution, which is more skewed toward e approx. 1 in our model. Finally, we propose an explanation for the long-standing problem in meteor science related to the relative strength of apex and helion/antihelion sources. As we show in detail, the observed trend, with the apex meteors being more prominent in observations of highly sensitive radars, can be related to orbital dynamics of particles released on the long-period orbits.

Nesvorny, David↗

Volume and Mass Estimation of Three-Phase High Power Transformers for Space Applications

Spacecraft historically have had sub-1kW(sub e), electrical requirements for GN&C, science, and communications: Galileo at 600W(sub e), and Cassini at 900W(sub e), for example. Because most missions have had the same order of magnitude power requirements, the Power Distribution Systems (PDS) use existing, space-qualified technology and are DC. As science payload and mission duration requirements increase, however, the required electrical power increases. Subsequently, this requires a change from a passive energy conversion (solar arrays and batteries) to dynamic (alternator, solar dynamic, etc.), because dynamic conversion has higher thermal and conversion efficiencies, has higher power densities, and scales more readily to higher power levels. Furthermore, increased power requirements and physical distribution lengths are best served with high-voltage, multi-phase AC to maintain distribution efficiency and minimize voltage drops. The generated AC-voltage must be stepped-up (or down) to interface with various subsystems or electrical hardware. Part of the trade-space design for AC distribution systems is volume and mass estimation of high-power transformers. The volume and mass are functions of the power rating, operating frequency, the ambient and allowable temperature rise, the types and amount of heat transfer available, the core material and shape, the required flux density in a core, the maximum current density, etc. McLyman has tabulated the performance of a number of transformers cores and derived a "cookbook" methodology to determine the volume of transformers, whereas Schawrze had derived an empirical method to estimate the mass of single-phase transformers. Based on the work of McLyman and Schwarze, it is the intent herein to derive an empirical solution to the volume and mass estimation of three-phase, laminated EI-core power transformers, having radiated and conducted heat transfer mechanisms available. Estimation of the mounting hardware, connectors, etc. is not included.

Kimnach, Greg L.↗

The STARDUST Discovery Mission: Data from the Encounter with Comet Wild 2 and the Expected Sample Return

On January 2,2004, the STARDUST spacecraft made the closest ever flyby (236 km) of the nucleus of a comet - Comet Wild 2. During the fly by the spacecraft collected samples of dust from the coma of the comet. These samples will be returned to Earth on January 15,2006. After a brief preliminary examination to establish the nature of the returned samples, they will be made available to the general scientific community for study. In addition to its aerogel dust collector, the STARDUST spacecraft was also equipped with instruments that made in situ measurements of the comet during the flyby. These included several dust impact monitors, a mass spectrometer, and a camera. The spacecraft's communication system was also used to place dynamical constraints on the mass of the nucleus and the number of impacts the spacecraft had with large particles. The data taken by these instruments indicate that the spacecraft successfully captured coma samples. These instruments, particularly the camera, also demonstrated that Wild 2 is unlike any other object in the Solar System previously visited by a spacecraft. During my talk I will discuss the scientific goals of the STARDUST mission and provide an overview of its design and flight to date. I will then end with a description of the exciting data returned by the spacecraft during the recent encounter with Wild 2 and discuss what these data tell us about the nature of comets. It will probably come as no surprise that the encounter data raise as many (or more) new questions as they answer old ones.

Sandford, Scott A.↗