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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assuring reliability program effectiveness.

An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.

Ball, L. W.↗

Possible detection of an emission feature near 584 A in the direction of G191-B2B

A possible spectral emission feature is reported in the direction of the nearby hot white dwarf G191-B2B at 581.5 + or - 6 A with a significance of 3.8 sigma. This emission has been identified as He I 584.3 A. The emission cannot be due to local geocoronal emission or interplanetary backscatter of solar He I 584 A emission because the feature is not detected in a nearby sky exposure. Possible sources for this emission are examined, including the photosphere of G191-B2B, the comparison star G191-B2A, and a possible nebulosity near or around G191-B2B. The parameters required to explain the emission are derived for each case. All of these explanations require unexpected physical conditions; hence we believe this result must receive confirming verification despite the statistical likelihood of the detection.

Green, James↗

Potential vorticity index

Using standard data analysis techniques, researchers explore the links between disturbance growth and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) gradients; appearance and disappearance of cutoff lows and blocking highs and their relation to a zonal index (properly defined in terms of PV); and teleconnections between different flow patterns and their relation to the zonal index. It was found that the PV index and the eddy index correlate better than a zonal index (defined by zonal wind) and the eddy index. In the frequency domain there are three frequencies (.03, .07 and .17 cpd (cycle per day) corresponding to periods of 33, 14 and 6 days) at which PV index and the eddy index exhibit local maxima. The high correlation found at periods of 33 days is mainly due to eddy activity at high latitudes while the local correlation maxima found at the shorter periods are mainly due mid-latitude eddy activity. The correlation between the PV index and the geopotential height anomaly at 500 mb, at each grid point in the Northern Hemisphere, shows the existence of most of the teleconnection patterns summarized by Wallace and Gutzler (1981): the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific/North American patterns. Results show that the Isentropic Potential Vorticity (IPV) analysis can be a very useful and powerful tool when used to understand the dynamics of several large scale atmospheric systems. Although the data are limited to only one winter, and it is difficult to assess the statistical significance of the correlation coefficients presented here, the results are encouraging from physical viewpoint.

Barcilon, Albert↗

Microstructural design of fiber composites

The optimum performance design of composite microstructures is discussed. The forces driving progress in fiber composites are examined, and recent developments in the mechanics of laminated composites are surveyed, emphasizing thick laminates, hygrothermal effects, and thermal transient effects. The strength of continuous-fiber composites is discussed, presenting analyses of local load redistribution due to fiber breakages and treatments of statistical tensile strength theories. Modes of failure of laminated composites are examined. Elastic, physical, and viscoelastic properties as well as the strength and fracture behavior of short-fiber composites are studied, and it is shown how the performance of composites can be controlled by selecting material systems and their geometric distributions. 2D textile structural composites based on woven, knitted, and braided preforms are considered, and techniques for analyzing and modeling the thermomechanical behavior of 2D textile composites are presented. Recent developments in the processing of 3D textile preforms are introduced and the processing-microstructure relationship is demonstrated. Finite elastic deformation of flexible composites is addressed.

Chou, Tsu-Wei↗

Prospect redux

The remote estimation of leaf biochemical content from spaceborne platforms has been the subject of many studies aimed at better understanding of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. The major ecological processes involved in exchange of matter and energy, like photosynthesis, primary production, evaportranspiration, respiration, and decomposition can be related to plant properties e.g., chlorophyll, water, protein, cellulose and lignin contents. As leaves represent the most important plant surfaces interacting with solar energy, a top priority has been to relate optical properties to biochemical constituents. Two different approaches have been considered: first, statistical correlations between the leaf reflectance (or transmittance) and biochemical content, and second, physically based models of leaf scattering and absorption developed using the laws of optics. Recently reviewed by Verdebout et al., the development of models of leaf optical properties has resulted in better understanding of the interaction of light with plant leaves. Present radiative transfer models mainly use chlorophyll and/or water contents as input parameters to calculate leaf reflectance. Inversion of these models allows to retrieve these constituents from spectrophotometric measurements. Conel et al. recently proposed a two-stream Kubelka-Munk model to analyze the influence of protein, cellulose, lignin, and starch on leaf reflectance, but in fact, the estimation of leaf biochemistry from remote sensing is still an open question. In order to clarify it, a laboratory experiment associating visible/infrared spectra of plan leaves both with physical measurements and biochemical analyses was conducted at the Joint Research Center during the summer of 1993. This unique data set has been used to upgrade the PROSPECT model, by including leaf biochemistry.

Jacquemoud, S.↗

The Turbulent/Non-Turbulent Interface Bounding a Far-Wake

The velocity fields of a turbulent wake behind a flat plate obtained from the direct numerical simulations of Moser et al. are used to study the structure of the flow in the intermittent zone where there are, alternately, regions of fully turbulent flow and non-turbulent velocity fluctuations either side of a thin randomly moving interface. Comparisons are made with a wake that is 'forced' by amplifying initial velocity fluctuations. There is also a random temperature field T in the flow; T varies between constant values of 0.0 and 1.0 on the sides of the wake. The value of the Reynolds number based on the centreplane mean velocity defect and halfwidth b of the wake is Re approx. = 2000. It is found that the thickness of the continuous interface is about equal to 0.07b, whereas the amplitude of fluctuations of the instantaneous interface displacement y(sub I)(t) is an order of magnitude larger, being about 0.5b. This explains why the mean statistics of vorticity in the intermittent zone can be calculated in terms of the probability distribution of y(sub I) and the instantaneous discontinuity in vorticity across the interface. When plotted as functions of y - y(sub I), the conditional mean velocity (U) and temperature (T) profiles show sharp jumps Delta(U) and Delta(T) at the interface adjacent to a thick zone where (U) and (T) vary much more slowly. Statistics for the vorticity and velocity variances, available in such detail only from DNS data, show how streamwise and spanwise components of vorticity are generated by vortex stretching in the bulges of the interface. Flow fields around the interface, analyzed in terms of the local streamline pattern, confirm previous results that the advancement of the vortical interface into the irrotational flow is driven by large-scale eddy motion. It is argued that because this is an inviscid mechanism the entrainment process is not sensitive to the value of Re, and that small-scale nibbling only plays a subsidiary role. While mean Reynolds stresses decrease gradually in the intermittent zone, conditional stresses are found to decrease sharply towards zero at the interface. Using one-point turbulence models applied to either unconditional or conditional statistics for the turbulent region and then averaged, the entrainment rate E(sub b) would, if calculated exactly, be zero. But if computed with standard computational methods, E(sub b) would be non-zero because of numerical diffusion. It is concluded that the current practice in statistical models of approximating entrainment by a diffusion process is computationally arbitrary and physically incorrect. An analysis shows how E(sub b) is related to Delta(U) and the jump in shear stress at the interface, and correspondingly to Delta(T) and the heat flux.

Bisset, David K.↗

Implications of the Observed Ultraluminous X-Ray Source Luminosity Function

We present the X-ray luminosity function (XLF) of ultraluminous X-ray (ULX) sources with 0.3-10.0 keV luminosities in excess of 10(sup 39) erg/s in a complete sample of nearby galaxies. The XLF shows a break or cut-off at high luminosities that deviates from its pure power law distribution at lower luminosities. The cut-off is at roughly the Eddington luminosity for a 90-140 solar mass accretor. We examine the effects on the observed XLF of sample biases, of small-number statistics (at the high luminosity end) and of measurement uncertainties. We consider the physical implications of the shape and normalization of the XLF. The XLF is also compared and contrasted to results of other recent surveys.

Swartz, Douglas A.↗

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Estimates Derived from SSMI Microwave Remote Sensing and NLDN

Lightning observations are collected using ground-based and satellite-based sensors. The National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) in the United States uses multiple ground sensors to triangulate the electromagnetic signals created when lightning strikes the Earth's surface. Satellite-based lightning observations have been made from 1998 to present using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and from 1995 to 2000 using the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) on the Microlab-1 satellite. Both LIS and OTD are staring imagers that detect lightning as momentary changes in an optical scene. Passive microwave remote sensing (85 and 37 GHz brightness temperatures) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) has also been used to quantify characteristics of thunderstorms related to lightning. Each lightning detection system has fundamental limitations. TRMM satellite coverage is limited to the tropics and subtropics between 38 deg N and 38 deg S, so lightning at the higher latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres is not observed. The detection efficiency of NLDN sensors exceeds 95%, but the sensors are only located in the USA. Even if data from other ground-based lightning sensors (World Wide Lightning Location Network, the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection, and Canadian Lightning Detection Network) were combined with TRMM and NLDN, there would be enormous spatial gaps in present-day coverage of lightning. In addition, a globally-complete time history of observed lightning activity is currently not available either, with network coverage and detection efficiencies varying through the years. Previous research using the TRMM LIS and Microwave Imager (TMI) showed that there is a statistically significant correlation between lightning flash rates and passive microwave brightness temperatures. The physical basis for this correlation emerges because lightning in a thunderstorm occurs where ice is first present in the cloud and electric charge separation occurs. These ice particles efficiently scatter the microwave radiation at the 85 and 37 GHz frequencies, thus leading to large brightness temperature depressions. Lightning flash rate is related to the total amount of ice passing through the convective updraft regions of thunderstorms. Confirmation of this relationship using TRMM LIS and TMI data, however, remains constrained to TRMM observational limits of the tropics and subtropics. Satellites from the Defense Meteorology Satellite Program (DMSP) have global coverage and are equipped with passive microwave imagers that, like TMI, observe brightness temperatures at 85 and 37 GHz. Unlike the TRMM satellite, however, DMSP satellites do not have a lightning sensor, and the DMSP microwave data has never been used to derive global lightning. In this presentation, a relationship between DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) data and ground-based cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from NLDN is investigated to derive a spatially complete time history of CG lightning for the USA study area. This relationship is analogous to the established using TRMM LIS and TMI data. NLDN has the most spatially and temporally complete CG lightning data for the USA, and therefore provides the best opportunity to find geospatially coincident observations with SSMI sensors. The strongest thunderstorms generally have minimum 85 GHz Polarized Corrected brightness Temperatures (PCT) less than 150 K. Archived radar data was used to resolve the spatial extent of the individual storms. NLDN data for that storm spatial extent defined by radar data was used to calculate the CG flash rate for the storm. Similar to results using TRMM sensors, a linear model best explained the relationship between storm-specific CG flash rates and minimum 85 GHz PCT. However, the results in this study apply only to CG lightning. To extend the results to weaker storms, the probability of CG lightning (instead of the flash rate) was calculated for storms having 85 GHz PCT greater than 150 K. NLDN data was used to determine if a CG strike occurred for a storm. This probability of CG lightning was plotted as a function of minimum 85 GHz PCT and minimum 37 GHz PCT. These probabilities were used in conjunction with the linear model to estimate the CG flash rate for weaker storms with minimum 85 GHz PCTs greater than 150 K. Results from the investigation of CG lightning and passive microwave radiation signals agree with the previous research investigating total lightning and brightness temperature. Future work will take the established relationships and apply them to the decades of available DMSP data for the USA to derive a map of CG lightning flash rates. Validation of this method and uncertainty analysis will be done by comparing the derived maps of CG lightning flash rates against existing NLDN maps of CG lightning flash rates.

Winesett, Thomas↗

Rapid Aero Modeling for Urban Air Mobility Aircraft in Wind-Tunnel Tests

Rapid Aero Modeling (RAM) applied to wind tunnel testing, RAM-T, is an approach to efficiently and automatically obtain aerodynamic models during testing. The approach saves time and resources by responding to the demand for experimental efficiency and model fidelity. Motivation for this demand is more acute when investigating a class of vehicles categorized as Urban Air Mobility (UAM) aircraft where many features from both aircraft and rotorcraft are present. RAM-T provides a feedback loop around the test facility to guide the test toward high-fidelity, statistically rigorous aircraft models. The general RAM approach is applicable to computational or physical experiments. It combines concepts from design of experiment theory and aircraft system identification theory that allow the user the freedom to choose, in advance of the test, a specific level of fidelity in terms of prediction error. RAM only collects data required to meet the user-specified fidelity and fidelity is only limited by the facility and test article capabilities. This paper presents results from tests conducted for development of an automated RAM-T technology. The results highlight some of the unique features of RAM applied to eVTOL configurations.

Aerodynamics↗

Implications of the Warm Corona and Relativistic Reflection Models for the Soft Excess in Mrk 509

We present the analysis of the first Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array observations (∼220 ks), simultaneous with the last Suzaku observations (∼50 ks), of the active galactic nucleus of the bright Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 509. The time-averaged spectrum in the 1–79 keV X-ray band is dominated by a power-law continuum (Γ ∼ 1.8–1.9), a strong soft excess around 1 keV, and signatures of X-ray reflection in the form of Fe K emission (∼6.4 keV), an Fe K absorption edge (∼7.1 keV), and a Compton hump due to electron scattering (∼20–30 keV). We show that these data can be described by two very different prescriptions for the soft excess: a warm (kT ∼ 0.5–1 keV) and optically thick (τ ∼ 10–20) Comptonizing corona or a relativistically blurred ionized reflection spectrum from the inner regions of the accretion disk. While these two scenarios cannot be distinguished based on their fit statistics, we argue that the parameters required by the warm corona model are physically incompatible with the conditions of standard coronae. Detailed photoionization calculations show that even in the most favorable conditions, the warm corona should produce strong absorption in the observed spectrum. On the other hand, while the relativistic reflection model provides a satisfactory description of the data, it also requires extreme parameters, such as maximum black hole spin, a very low and compact hot corona, and a very high density for the inner accretion disk. Deeper observations of this source are thus necessary to confirm the presence of relativistic reflection and further understand the nature of its soft excess.

Javier Garcia↗

A Quarter Century of Wind Spacecraft Discoveries

The Wind spacecraft, launched on November 1, 1994, is a critical element in NASA’s Heliophysics System Observatory (HSO)—a fleet of spacecraft created to understand the dynamics of the Sun-Earth system. The combination of its longevity (>25 years in service), its diverse complement of instrumentation, and high resolution and accurate measurements has led to it becoming the “standard candle” of solar wind measurements. Wind has over 55 selectable public data products with over ∼1,100 total data variables (including OMNI data products) on SPDF/CDAWeb alone. These data have led to paradigm shifting results in studies of statistical solar wind trends, magnetic reconnection, large-scale solar wind structures, kinetic physics, electromagnetic turbulence, the Van Allen radiation belts, coronal mass ejection topology, interplanetary and interstellar dust, the lunar wake, solar radio bursts, solar energetic particles, and extreme astrophysical phenomena such as gamma-ray bursts. This review introduces the mission and instrument suites then discusses examples of the contributions by Wind to these scientific topics that emphasize its importance to both the fields of heliophysics and astrophysics.

Lynn B. Wilson III↗

Space-borne Doppler Weather Radar Modeling for Radar Design Evaluation

A model has been developed to predict the reflectivity and Doppler performance of a spaceborne weather radar for atmospheric aerosol and cloud monitoring. The goal is to predict radar sensitivity, resolution, uncertainties and other key performance metrics vs. radar design parameters and hardware nonidealities. Analytical formulas are readily available to predict key performance metrics of a space-borne radar system as a function of design parameters such as antenna size, spacecraft velocity, transmit power, and receive noise figure. Effects of some system nonidealities such as antenna pointing errors, power amplifier nonlinearity and phase noise can be estimated using idealized methods. These analytical formulas use idealized forms of the antenna radiation pattern and weather statistics to predict system performance. However, it is desirable to have a more physical model based on discretized weather volumes in which the particle size distribution, Doppler distribution, and other parameters can be varied to study how the radar hardware design parameters and nonidealities affect the measurement of the weather reflectivity and Doppler characteristics. This would allow the radar designers to have more insight into what is being measured and the hardware parameters and errors that need to be carefully controlled to achieve best radar performance, as well as potential methods to calibrate the system or correct errors. This presentation will demonstrate some proof-of-concept Ka-band simulations where the discretized model agrees with the analytical formulas for a simple case where the elements in the discretized weather volume are defined by a constant reflectivity and simple velocity vectors. In particular, the system sensitivity and Doppler uncertainty are evaluated by analytical formulas as well as the discretized model. Future work will expand on this to include more complex weather scenarios and the addition of system nonidealities.

Sara Tucker↗

Tractable Learning in Underexcited Power Grids

Estimating the structure of physical flow networks, such as power grids, is critical to secure delivery of energy. This article discusses statistical structure estimation in power grids in the “underexcited” regime, where a subset of internal nodes has zero injection fluctuations. Prior estimation algorithms based on nodal voltages fail for such grids as the voltage covariance matrix is not invertible. Here, we propose a novel topology learning algorithm for learning underexcited general networks. Our algorithm uses physics-informed conservation laws to first identify the zero-injection buses and their neighbors, and then estimates the remaining edges in the grid. We prove the asymptotic correctness of our algorithm for grids with nonadjacent internal zero-injection nodes. More important, we theoretically analyze our algorithm’s efficacy under noisy measurements, and determine bounds on maximum noise under which asymptotically correct recovery is guaranteed. Our approach is validated through simulations with voltage samples generated on test distribution grids with real injection data and nonlinear power flow models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Element Composition Variation in Lead Zirconate Titanate upon the Ion-Plasma Deposition: Experiment and Simulation

The element composition modification is experimentally studied in PZT thin films obtained via the RF magnetron sputtering with variable working gas pressure. The experimental data were interpreted through the statistic simulation of thermalization and diffusion of sprayed Pb, Zr, and Ti atoms during the ion-plasma deposition of PZT thin films. The simulation data are shown to adequately describe (within the limits of 5%) the change in element composition at various pressures of the gas environment. The study conducted enables one to produce PZT thin films with a set element composition, which is essential for optimizing the electric and physical properties of solid solutions at the morphotropic phase boundary.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Moment extraction using an unfolding protocol without binning

Deconvolving (“unfolding”) detector distortions is a critical step in the comparison of cross-section measurements with theoretical predictions in particle and nuclear physics. However, most existing approaches require histogram binning while many theoretical predictions are at the level of statistical moments. We develop a new approach to directly unfold distribution moments as a function of another observable without having to first discretize the data. Our moment unfolding technique uses machine learning and is inspired by Boltzmann weight factors and generative adversarial networks (GANs). We demonstrate the performance of this approach using jet substructure measurements in collider physics. With this illustrative example, we find that our moment unfolding protocol is more precise than bin-based approaches and is as or more precise than completely unbinned methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of non-Maxwellian electron velocity distribution functions on inferred plasma parameters in collective Thomson scattering

Optical collective Thomson scattering provides precise density and temperature measurements in numerous plasma-physics experiments. The accuracy of such measurements depends on the core assumption that the underlying electron distribution functions in under-dense laser-produced plasmas are Maxwellian. A statistically based, quantitative analysis of the errors in the measured electron density and temperature is presented when synthetic data calculated using a non-Maxwellian electron distribution function is fit assuming a Maxwellian electron distribution. Such analysis can lead to errors of up to 50% in temperature and 30% in density, in the specific case of super-Gaussian distributions characteristic of inverse bremsstrahlung heating. Furthermore including the proper family of non-Maxwellian electron distribution functions, as a fitting parameter, in Thomson-scattering analysis removes the model-dependent errors in the inferred parameters at a minimal cost to the statistical uncertainty.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗