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Intelligent Integrated Health Management for a System of Systems

An intelligent integrated health management system (IIHMS) incorporates major improvements over prior such systems. The particular IIHMS is implemented for any system defined as a hierarchical distributed network of intelligent elements (HDNIE), comprising primarily: (1) an architecture (Figure 1), (2) intelligent elements, (3) a conceptual framework and taxonomy (Figure 2), and (4) and ontology that defines standards and protocols. Some definitions of terms are prerequisite to a further brief description of this innovation: A system-of-systems (SoS) is an engineering system that comprises multiple subsystems (e.g., a system of multiple possibly interacting flow subsystems that include pumps, valves, tanks, ducts, sensors, and the like); 'Intelligent' is used here in the sense of artificial intelligence. An intelligent element may be physical or virtual, it is network enabled, and it is able to manage data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) focused on determining its condition in the context of the entire SoS; As used here, 'health' signifies the functionality and/or structural integrity of an engineering system, subsystem, or process (leading to determination of the health of components); 'Process' can signify either a physical process in the usual sense of the word or an element into which functionally related sensors are grouped; 'Element' can signify a component (e.g., an actuator, a valve), a process, a controller, an actuator, a subsystem, or a system; The term Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) is used to describe a capability that focuses on determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, prognosis of future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) not just data to control systems for safe and effective operation. A major novel aspect of the present development is the concept of intelligent integration. The purpose of intelligent integration, as defined and implemented in the present IIHMS, is to enable automated analysis of physical phenomena in imitation of human reasoning, including the use of qualitative methods. Intelligent integration is said to occur in a system in which all elements are intelligent and can acquire, maintain, and share knowledge and information. In the HDNIE of the present IIHMS, an SoS is represented as being operationally organized in a hierarchical-distributed format. The elements of the SoS are considered to be intelligent in that they determine their own conditions within an integrated scheme that involves consideration of data, information, knowledge bases, and methods that reside in all elements of the system. The conceptual framework of the HDNIE and the methodologies of implementing it enable the flow of information and knowledge among the elements so as to make possible the determination of the condition of each element. The necessary information and knowledge is made available to each affected element at the desired time, satisfying a need to prevent information overload while providing context-sensitive information at the proper level of detail. Provision of high-quality data is a central goal in designing this or any IIHMS. In pursuit of this goal, functionally related sensors are logically assigned to groups denoted processes. An aggregate of processes is considered to form a system. Alternatively or in addition to what has been said thus far, the HDNIE of this IIHMS can be regarded as consisting of a framework containing object models that encapsulate all elements of the system, their individual and relational knowledge bases, generic methods and procedures based on models of the applicable physics, and communication processes (Figure 2). The framework enables implementation of a paradigm inspired by how expert operators monitor the health of systems with the help of (1) DIaK from various sources, (2) software tools that assist in rapid visualization of the condition of the system, (3) analical software tools that assist in reasoning about the condition, (4) sharing of information via network communication hardware and software, and (5) software tools that aid in making decisions to remedy unacceptable conditions or improve performance.

Smith, Harvey↗

DSN Beowulf Cluster-Based VLBI Correlator

The NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) requires a broadband VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) correlator to process data routinely taken as part of the VLBI source Catalogue Maintenance and Enhancement task (CAT M&E) and the Time and Earth Motion Precision Observations task (TEMPO). The data provided by these measurements are a crucial ingredient in the formation of precision deep-space navigation models. In addition, a VLBI correlator is needed to provide support for other VLBI related activities for both internal and external customers. The JPL VLBI Correlator (JVC) was designed, developed, and delivered to the DSN as a successor to the legacy Block II Correlator. The JVC is a full-capability VLBI correlator that uses software processes running on multiple computers to cross-correlate two-antenna broadband noise data. Components of this new system (see Figure 1) consist of Linux PCs integrated into a Beowulf Cluster, an existing Mark5 data storage system, a RAID array, an existing software correlator package (SoftC) originally developed for Delta DOR Navigation processing, and various custom- developed software processes and scripts. Parallel processing on the JVC is achieved by assigning slave nodes of the Beowulf cluster to process separate scans in parallel until all scans have been processed. Due to the single stream sequential playback of the Mark5 data, some ramp-up time is required before all nodes can have access to required scan data. Core functions of each processing step are accomplished using optimized C programs. The coordination and execution of these programs across the cluster is accomplished using Pearl scripts, PostgreSQL commands, and a handful of miscellaneous system utilities. Mark5 data modules are loaded on Mark5 Data systems playback units, one per station. Data processing is started when the operator scans the Mark5 systems and runs a script that reads various configuration files and then creates an experiment-dependent status database used to delegate parallel tasks between nodes and storage areas (see Figure 2). This script forks into three processes: extract, translate, and correlate. Each of these processes iterates on available scan data and updates the status database as the work for each scan is completed. The extract process coordinates and monitors the transfer of data from each of the Mark5s to the Beowulf RAID storage systems. The translate process monitors and executes the data conversion processes on available scan files, and writes the translated files to the slave nodes. The correlate process monitors the execution of SoftC correlation processes on the slave nodes for scans that have completed translation. A comparison of the JVC and the legacy Block II correlator outputs reveals they are well within a formal error, and that the data are comparable with respect to their use in flight navigation. The processing speed of the JVC is improved over the Block II correlator by a factor of 4, largely due to the elimination of the reel-to-reel tape drives used in the Block II correlator.

Rogstad, Stephen P.↗

FERMI Observations of Gamma -Ray Emission From the Moon

We report on the detection of high-energy γ -ray emission from the Moon during the first 24 months of observations by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). This emission comes from particle cascades produced by cosmicray (CR) nuclei and electrons interacting with the lunar surface. The differential spectrum of the Moon is soft and can be described as a log-parabolic function with an effective cutoff at 2-3 GeV, while the average integral flux measured with the LAT from the beginning of observations in 2008 August to the end of 2010 August is F(greater than100 MeV) = (1.04 plus or minus 0.01 [statistical error] plus or minus 0.1 [systematic error]) × 10(sup −6) cm(sup −2) s(sup −1). This flux is about a factor 2-3 higher than that observed between 1991 and 1994 by the EGRET experiment on board the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, F(greater than100 MeV)≈5×10(sup −7) cm(sup −2) s(sup −1), when solar activity was relatively high. The higher gamma -ray flux measured by Fermi is consistent with the deep solar minimum conditions during the first 24 months of the mission, which reduced effects of heliospheric modulation, and thus increased the heliospheric flux of Galactic CRs. A detailed comparison of the light curve with McMurdo Neutron Monitor rates suggests a correlation of the trends. The Moon and the Sun are so far the only known bright emitters of gamma-rays with fast celestial motion. Their paths across the sky are projected onto the Galactic center and high Galactic latitudes as well as onto other areas crowded with high-energy gamma-ray sources. Analysis of the lunar and solar emission may thus be important for studies of weak and transient sources near the ecliptic.

fermi↗

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Power-Amplifier Module for 145 to 165 GHz

A power-amplifier module that operates in the frequency range of 145 to 165 GHz has been designed and constructed as a combination of (1) a previously developed monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) power amplifier and (2) a waveguide module. The amplifier chip was needed for driving a high-electron-mobility-transistor (HEMT) frequency doubler. While it was feasible to connect the amplifier and frequency-doubler chips by use of wire bonds, it was found to be much more convenient to test the amplifier and doubler chips separately. To facilitate separate testing, it was decided to package the amplifier and doubler chips in separate waveguide modules. Figure 1 shows the resulting amplifier module. The amplifier chip was described in "MMIC HEMT Power Amplifier for 140 to 170 GHz" (NPO-30127), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 11, (November 2003), page 49. To recapitulate: This is a three-stage MMIC power amplifier that utilizes HEMTs as gain elements. The amplifier was originally designed to operate in the frequency range of 140 to 170 GHz. The waveguide module is based on a previously developed lower frequency module, redesigned to support operation in the frequency range of 140 to 220 GHz. Figure 2 presents results of one of several tests of the amplifier module - measurements of output power and gain as functions of input power at an output frequency of 150 GHz. Such an amplifier module has many applications to test equipment for power sources above 100 GHz.

Samoska, Lorene↗

Spectral Mesh-Free Quadrature for Planar Regions Bounded by Rational Parametric Curves

This article presents spectral, mesh-free, Green’s theorem-based numerical quadrature schemes for integrating functions over planar regions bounded by rational parametric curves. Our algorithm proceeds in two steps: (1) We first find intermediate quadrature rules for line integrals along the region’s boundary curves corresponding to Green’s theorem. (2) We then use a high-order quadrature rule to compute the numerical antiderivative of the integrand along a coordinate axis, which is used to evaluate the Green’s theorem line integral. We present two methods to compute the intermediate quadrature rule. The first is spectrally accurate (it converges faster than any algebraic order with respect to number of quadrature points) and is relatively easy to implement, but has no guarantee of polynomial exactness. The second guarantees exactness for polynomial integrands up to a pre-specified degree with an a priori-known number of quadrature points and retains the convergence properties of the first, but is slightly more complicated. The quadrature schemes have applications to computation of geometric moments, immersogeometric analysis, conservative field transfer between high-order meshes, and initialization of multi-material simulations with rational geometry. We compare the quadrature schemes produced using our method to other methods in the literature and show that they are much more efficient both in terms of number of quadrature points and computational time. We provide an open-source implementation of the algorithm in MATLAB.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Automation of closed environments in space for human comfort and safety

This report culminates the work accomplished during a three year design project on the automation of an Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) suitable for space travel and colonization. The system would provide a comfortable living environment in space that is fully functional with limited human supervision. A completely automated ECLSS would increase astronaut productivity while contributing to their safety and comfort. The first section of this report, section 1.0, briefly explains the project, its goals, and the scheduling used by the team in meeting these goals. Section 2.0 presents an in-depth look at each of the component subsystems. Each subsection describes the mathematical modeling and computer simulation used to represent that portion of the system. The individual models have been integrated into a complete computer simulation of the CO2 removal process. In section 3.0, the two simulation control schemes are described. The classical control approach uses traditional methods to control the mechanical equipment. The expert control system uses fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence to control the system. By integrating the two control systems with the mathematical computer simulation, the effectiveness of the two schemes can be compared. The results are then used as proof of concept in considering new control schemes for the entire ECLSS. Section 4.0 covers the results and trends observed when the model was subjected to different test situations. These results provide insight into the operating procedures of the model and the different control schemes. The appendix, section 5.0, contains summaries of lectures presented during the past year, homework assignments, and the completed source code used for the computer simulation and control system.

Source record↗

Implementation of Ion Exchange Processes on Industrial Waste Streams for CO 2 Mineralization

Economic development and population growth will lead to an increase in global energy consumption. Large coal-fired power plants (>500 MW) account for almost half of the total CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and nearly 26% of the global fossil fuel and industry CO 2 emissions. Long-term management of the more than 36 Gt of CO 2 that is emitted globally per year is urgently needed. CO 2 mineralization is an attractive method of sequestering CO 2 because it captures CO 2 as an insoluble carbonate mineral, mimicking the natural process of rock weathering. Here, we present a pathway for accelerated CO 2 mineralization enabled by divalent cations sourced from liquid streams. In this work, we investigate a mineralization route that converts flue gas CO 2 to precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) using waste aqueous streams as the calcium source. The proposed mineralization route integrates CO 2 utilization and waste liquid management at coal power plants. Maintaining alkalinity during carbonation is the primary challenge in this process. Instead of relying on the consumption of costly and unsustainable sources of alkalinity (e.g., sodium hydroxide), we used regenerable solids to increase the pH of water by ion exchange. The increase in alkalinity creates a more thermodynamically favorable environment for calcite precipitation. The capacities for ion exchange of various commercially available zeolites and ion exchange resins in CO 2 -saturated water were studied through batch equilibrium and column ion-exchange experiments. During ion exchange, H + in the water exchanges with Na + , Ca 2+ or K + in the zeolite or resin. Batch equilibrium isotherms for H + –Na + exchange were collected by first adding varying amounts of the ion exchange solid (0 – 1.0 kg per kg of water) to CO 2 -saturated water (pCO 2 = 1 atm, pH 4) to determine the maximum H + –Na + exchange achievable. Ion-exchange column studies were performed to determine breakthrough capacity of the system. In both systems, an increase in pH coupled with an increase in Na concentration was observed, demonstrating the feasibility of forward ion exchange. Zeolitic materials increased the alkalinity of the solution from pH 4 to around 10, whereas ion exchange resins containing weakly acidic functional groups (e.g., carboxylic acid) exhibited higher affinity for H + , increasing pH to 11.3 and surpassing the pH shift induced by the zeolitic materials. The extent of calcite precipitation was evaluated by mixing the alkaline CO 3 2- -rich water obtained after passing through the ion-exchange column and a CaCl 2 solution. Calcite yields are as expected from chemical thermodynamics. Calcium carbonate yields found experimentally were about 26 and 8 mmol per kg water for the weakly acidic ion exchange resin and zeolitic materials, respectively. The results from these studies indicate that ion exchange processes can be used as an alternative to the addition of stoichiometric inorganic bases (e.g., sodium hydroxide) to induce alkalinity for the consequent precipitation of CaCO 3 . Instead, weakly acidic ion exchange resins commonly used for water hardness removal were alternatively used to induce pH swings in the aqueous solutions. The high calcium carbonate yields obtained for the materials examined demonstrate the potential application of this process. In addition, the successful operation of the calcium carbonate production process at standard temperature and pressure conditions support its potential for industrial implementation.

Simonetti, Dante↗

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Model Description and Results - 1

Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane­ hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.

Biogeochemical processes↗

Validation and Demonstration of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an integrated energy system (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. The new RAVEN plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) only addresses the limits that affect the production variables and the corresponding rates of variation (explicit constraints). However, other variables are subject to constraints, and the associated limits should be accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response affects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. To obtain a more accurate approximation of the nonlinear dynamic behavior, a parametric version of the dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) algorithm was developed to derive the state-space representation matrices of the IES components at different scheduling parameter. Thanks to this approach, a more accurate approximation of the system response can be obtained, the limits imposed by thermal mechanical implicit constraints can be translated into power dispatch limits, and the feedbacks to HERON power dispatcher can be provided. To assess the developed methodology, a power dispatching test case composed of three power generating and storage units (Balance of Plant, Secondary Energy Source, Thermal Energy Storage) was developed. The power output of each one of the three units was optimized to meet the imposed time-dependent load demand trajectory and to maximize the IES profitability by meeting both the explicit and implicit constraints.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting: experiments, modeling and nationwide analysis

Here, this paper proposes and validates a dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system that shifts building electric load in both cooling and heating modes using a single phase-change TES. The design uses the TES as a heat sink for the condenser in summer and a heat source for the evaporator in winter, thereby reducing on-peak electric demand while ensuring compatible with existing air-distribution systems. A 14-kW TES-HP prototype with six operating modes and novel refrigerant charge management strategies was experimentally tested under varied conditions. Subsequently, data-driven polynomial performance curves were developed and validated against experiments, then coupled with a phase change material (PCM) model and a calibrated building model within a rule-based controller. Single-day case studies demonstrated effective on-peak demand reduction while maintaining thermal comfort. During cooling, hourly power was lowered by up to 1.5 kW; in heating, average hourly power decreased from over 3.5 kW to 1.8 kW, compared to an HP-only system, achieving 64.5 % load shifting, and the need for resistance heating was eliminated. Seasonal simulations showed typical on-peak electricity savings of 25–35 % in cooling and 40–65 % in heating, with the largest benefits on the hottest and coldest days. Extended response-surface analysis and nationwide mapping quantified load shifting as functions of ambient and TES temperatures, revealing a seasonal trade-off in TES phase-change temperature. These results demonstrate the TES-HP system as a practical and scalable solution for grid-interactive buildings that reduces on-peak demand and electricity use while maintaining thermal comfort and enhancing grid flexibility and reliability.

Grid-interactive buildings↗

NSLS-II: Turn-by-Turn BPM Data Analysis – A Use Case Approach

A modern ring-based light source is a complex dynamic system for which the design is guided by a realistic computer model with predictable results. State-of-the-arts beam requirements translate into tight engineering tolerances. So, quality assurance for the equipment, e.g. ring magnets, girder system, power supplies, RF system, etc. is crucial to deliver on the design goals for the beam quality. For a streamlined commissioning and an effective approach for integration of insertion devices, the latter being an activity that is typically on-going for the entire life cycle of the facility, it is equally important to be able to calibrate the beam dynamics design model against the real system and pursue e.g. “gap analysis”, linear and nonlinear optics corrections, improvements to the baseline design, etc. In particular, for high-end insertion devices. Conceptually, it can be thought of as pursuing Model-Based and Adaptive Control; instead of “flying blind”. A straightforward approach is to use a pinger, a ~30 cm long hor/ver kicker that can kick the beam to about 1 mrad in each plane [1-2] and a Turn-by-Turn BPM data acquisition system that records the betatron motion on a Turn-by-Turn basis. Examples include: ALS, SLS, DIAMOND, and SOLEIL. We first outline how to measure the Beam Impulse Response (BIR) function and related Beam Transfer Function (BTF) with a Turn-by-Turn BPM data acquisition system and a pinger. In particular, how to obtain the amplitude and phase of the spectral components in the betatron spectrum with high precision by using signal processing. We also quantify how the impact of noise affects the accuracy of the measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hamilton: Flexible, Open Source $10 Wireless Sensor System for Energy Efficient Building Operation

Sensors for improving building performance are rapidly populating the market, driven in part by the drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions resulting from energy production as well as improve the interior environment for healthy and more productive spaces. UC Berkeley has led wireless sensor development over the past 25 years (e.g., Telos mote), with the Hamilton (named after Alexander Hamilton on the US $10 bill) as the most recent. The Hamilton sensor was designed as a low-cost high-performance sensor that is modular and interoperable. The objective of the Hamilton project was to create, evaluate and establish the technological foundations for secure and easy to deploy building energy efficiency applications utilizing pervasive, low-cost wireless sensors integrated with traditional Building Management Systems (BMS), consumer-sector building components, and powerful data analytics. The project included iterative hardware design, incorporating a high-performance database (BTrDb, http://btrdb.io/), creating and iterating the development of secure data middleware (BOSSwave, WAVE/WAVEMQ), working with and pushing the development of an open-source tiny operating system RiotOS, and implementing and improving protocols such as Thread/OpenThread and TCP/IP. The hardware benefited from careful design to drive down the cost; the design included a System-on-a-Chip (SoC), chip antenna, single crystal and five passive components. Careful design of the operating system created a low-power design to enable a long life with small batteries. The hardware included several sensors: temperature, radiant temperature, relative humidity, magnetometer, accelerometer, and light, with an optional occupancy (Passive InfraRed) sensor. The project was the basis of several applications, both internal to the research team and other researchers and professionals at other institutions. Several applications used the sensor hardware as the basis for other complex devices. Other applications used the sensors to improve building performance through interoperating with the building Heating Ventilation and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) system, such as using occupancy and/or distributed temperature sensing to reduce HVAC zone energy while still providing thermal comfort and to reduce peak loads in small commercial buildings. We demonstrated cloud-based energy analytics, implemented a schedule and a Model Predictive Controller in a small commercial building to optimize HVAC energy, occupancy and electricity price. Initial integration of these technological innovations was performed through the creation of execution containers containing the WAVE agent and various driver, proxy, or building system function logic. The research added to the understanding of efficient sensor hardware, secure middleware, time-series data management (high performance database), efficient communication protocols, and interoperating with applications and building systems. The project showed the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of creating a low-cost, modular, and easy-to-deploy sensor. Through conversations with multiple end users, the research team discovered that many customers wanted data management and services in addition to the sensors. HamiltonIOT developed packages of sensors, border router, and data services to provide a seamless “plug-and-play” sensor deployment. Some customers were willing to pay for higher quality sensors (such as light); some customers wanted a robust enclosure (waterproof).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Localized Conduction Channels in Memristors

Since the early 2000s, the impending end of Moore’s scaling, as the physical limits to shrinking transistors have been approached, has fueled interest in improving the functionality and efficiency of integrated circuits by employing memristors or two-terminal resistive switches. Formation (or avoidance) of localized conducting channels in many memristors, often called “filaments”, has been established as the basis for their operation. While we understand some qualitative aspects of the physical and thermodynamic origins of conduction localization, there are not yet quantitative models that allow us to predict when they will form or how large they will be. Here, in this work, we compile observations and explanations of channel formation that have appeared in the literature since the 1930s, show how many of these seemingly unrelated pieces fit together, and outline what is needed to complete the puzzle. This understanding will be a necessary predictive component for the design and fabrication of post-Moore’s-era electronics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analytic solutions for Asay foil trajectories with implications for ejecta source models and mass measurements

We consider the trajectory of an Asay foil ejecta diagnostic for scenarios where ejecta are produced at a singly shocked planar surface and fly ballistically through a perfect vacuum to the sensor. We do so by building upon a previously established mathematical framework derived for the analytic study of stationary sensors. First, we derive the momentum conservation equation for the problem, in a form amenable to accelerating sensors, in terms of a generic ejecta source model. The result is an integrodifferential equation of motion for the foil trajectory. This equation yields an easily calculable closed-form implicit solution for the foil trajectory in instant-production scenarios. From there, we derive a boundary condition that particle velocity distributions must satisfy if their associated foil trajectories are to exhibit a smooth initial acceleration, as occurs in some experiments. This condition is identical to one derived previously from a consideration of piezoelectric voltage data obtained in similar experiments. We also compare techniques for inferring accumulated ejecta masses from foil trajectories, first by deriving the exact solution, and then by quantifying the error imposed by a frequently used approximate solution (both subject to the assumption of instantaneous ejecta production). Finally, we examine the common practice of presenting inferred cumulative ejecta masses as a function of implied ejecta velocity, establishing the conditions under which this methodology is most meaningful.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Asynchronous Grid Connections Providing Fast-Frequency Response: System Integration Study

This paper presents an integration study for the recent power electronic-based fast-frequency response technology, "asynchronous grid connection" which operates as an aggregator for behind-the-meter resources and distributed generators. Both technical feasibility and techno-economic viability studies are presented. The fast-frequency response characteristics, validated against Power Hardware-in-the-Loop experiments, are integrated into an IEEE 9- bus system in DigSilent PowerFactory for system-level dynamic analysis. It demonstrates that droop-based control enhancements to local distributed generators allow their aggregation to provide grid-supporting functionalities and participate in the ancillary service markets. To this end, a long-term simulation embedding the system within the ancillary service market framework of PJM has been performed. The fast-frequency response regulation is subsequently used to calculate the potential revenue and project the results on a 15-year investment horizon. Finally, the techno-economic analysis provides recommendations for enhancements to access the full potential of distributed generators on a technical and regulatory level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A mathematical framework for ejecta cloud dynamics with application to source models and piezoelectric mass measurements

We present a mathematical framework for describing the dynamical evolution of an ejecta cloud generated by a generic ejecta source model. We consider a piezoelectric sensor fielded in the path of an ejecta cloud, for experimental configurations in which the ejecta are created at a singly shocked planar surface and fly ballistically through vacuum to the stationary sensor. To do so, we introduce the concept of a time- and velocity-dependent ejecta “areal mass function.” We derive expressions for the analytic (“true”) accumulated ejecta areal mass at the sensor and the measured (“inferred”) value obtained via the standard method for analyzing piezoelectric voltages. In this way, we derive an exact expression and upper bound for the error imposed upon a piezoelectric ejecta mass measurement (in a perfect system) by the assumption of instantaneous creation, which is commonly required for momentum diagnostic analyses. This error term is zero for truly instantaneous source models; otherwise, the standard piezoelectric analysis is guaranteed to overestimate the true mass. When combined with a piezoelectric dataset, this framework provides a unique solution for the ejecta particle velocity distribution, subject to the assumptions inherent in the data analysis. The framework also leads to strong boundary conditions that any ejecta source model must satisfy in order to be consistent with apparently global properties of piezoelectric measurements from a wide range of experiments. We demonstrate this methodology by applying it to the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability+self-similar velocity distribution ejecta source model currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

New materials: Fountainhead for new technologies and new science

The role of materials as the benchmark technologies which give epochs of human history their names continues into the present. The discovery of new materials has nearly always been the source of new materials science, and frequently of new technologies. This paper analyzes the actual processes by which new materials are synthesized, i.e. whether driven by serendipitous observations, new knowledge is pulled by the market, or integrated into a technological thrust. This analysis focuses on modern ceramic materials discoveries, since World War 2 and uses 45 years experience in materials synthesis in the author's own laboratory as case studies. A dozen different families of materials or processes are involved: hydrothermal reactions; sol-gel processing; clays and zeolites; electroceramics; zero expansion ceramics; diamond films; and radioactive waste host phases. Nanocomposite concepts introduced by the author a decade ago offer an entire, large, new class of materials which will dominate synthesis for the next period. The future of materials research for the next 25 years cannot be extrapolated from the past 25 years. We are near the asymptote for materials utilization in most metals. Likewise we are approaching saturation in improvement of many useful properties. Justifying much further 'basic' R/D for incremental improvement in civilian-oriented industries will not be easy. In materials synthesis, the near-term future is sure to emphasize not new phases, but tailored micro- and nanocomposites for chemical, electrical, optical, and magnetic uses. Unexpected new discoveries such as the Lanxide process may offer rarer chances for step function advances. The new structure of knowledge management will rely less on local research than on integration of worldwide inputs. Better scientific and technological opportunities will lie in designing knowledge intensive materials to meet the new environmental and conservation goals, and the human needs of the very large numbers at the bottom of the socio-economic structures of the world.

Rustum, Roy↗