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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Convolutional Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process and its Application to Wildfire Ignition Risk Quantification for Power Delivery Networks

To quantify wildfire ignition risks on power delivery networks, the current practice predominantly relies on the empirically calculated fire danger indices, which may not well capture the effects of dynamically changing environmental factors. This article proposes a spatio-temporal point process model, known as the Convolutional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (cNHPP), and applies the model to quantify wildfire ignition risks for power delivery networks. The proposed model captures both the current (i.e., instantaneous) and cumulative (i.e., historical) effects of key environmental processes (i.e., covariates) on wildfire risks, as well as the spatio-temporal dependency among different segments of the power delivery network. The computation and interpretation of the intensity function are thoroughly investigated. We apply the proposed approach to estimate wildfire ignition risks on major transmission lines in California, using historical fire data, meteorological and vegetation data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Here, a comprehensive comparison study is performed to show the applicability and predictive capability of the proposed approach.

Non-homogeneous Poisson Process↗
DOE OSTI2023

Confirmation and Quantification of Gas Flow into Capsules

Inertial confinement fusion experiments require a fuel filled target. At the National Ignition Facility (NIF), these targets are filled through a capsule fill tube assembly (CFTA). While fabricating these assemblies, it is possible to plug the fill tube with glue, which would render the CFTA and eventual target unusable. Historically, this plugging was first detectable in a finished target after considerable resources had been expended. Herein, this paper presents a method for not only detecting a plug in the fill tube before the CFTA is assembled into a target, but also characterizing gas flow through the fill tube, which can help NIF operations prepare to expend each target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of Changes in Fill Tube Curvature During Target Assembly

National Ignition Facility (NIF) targets used for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments are precision-engineered assemblies composed of more than 100 components carefully and precisely assembled with accuracies no larger than a few micrometers in most cases. When individual components deviate from these strict specifications during the assembly process, they can induce target failure. An integral component essential to ICF targets is the capsule-fill-tube assembly. This assembly involves bonding the capsule to a fused silica tube less than 5 μm in thickness, through which the tritium and deuterium (T 2 + D 2 ) fuel mixture is injected into the capsule prior to the NIF shot. The filling tube is bonded to a larger fused silica capillary, about 130 μm in outer diameter, which is coated with a polymeric layer on the order of a 10-μm thickness or less. Only tubes exhibiting a deflection equivalent to less than 1% of their total length from a perfectly straight line are suitable for assembly. Slight curvatures on the order of 1 mm over 10 cm can induce unwanted stresses, potentially causing capsule misalignment and resulting in clogging or leaks during the filling process. Despite manually qualitatively sorting each tube for straightness prior assembly, it has been found that the treatments the tubes undergo once attached to the capsule can alter their curvature. Filling tubes that initially satisfy straightness tolerances can undergo geometric deformation, resulting in curvature deviations exceeding 1% of their total length and thus failing to meet target assembly requirements. Here, in this study, we propose a metric to assess the degree of curvature of the filling tubes and to gauge their changes in curvature caused by the standard thermal processing methods employed in target assembly. In addition, we suggest alternatives to mitigate tube curvature, ensuring they conform to specifications following assembly in the final targets.

Materials science↗
DOE OSTI2018

Low energy peripheral scaling in nucleon–nucleon scattering and uncertainty quantification

We analyze the peripheral structure of the nucleon–nucleon interaction for LAB energies below 350 MeV. To this end we transform the scattering matrix into the impact parameter representation by analyzing the scaled phase shifts (L + 1/2) δ JLS (p) and the scaled mixing parameters (L + 1/2)ϵ JLS (p) in terms of the impact parameter b = (L + 1/2)/p. According to the eikonal approximation, at large angular momentum L these functions should become an universal function of b, independent on L. This allows to discuss in a rather transparent way the role of statistical and systematic uncertainties in the different long range components of the two-body potential. Implications for peripheral waves obtained in chiral perturbation theory interactions to fifth order (N5LO) or from the large body of NN data considered in the SAID partial wave analysis are also drawn from comparing them with other phenomenological high-quality interactions, constructed to fit scattering data as well. Here, we find that both N5LO and SAID peripheral waves disagree more than 5σ with the Granada-2013 statistical analysis, more than 2σ with the 6 statistically equivalent potentials fitting the Granada-2013 database and about 1σ with the historical set of 13 high-quality potentials developed since the 1993 Nijmegen analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) uncertainty quantification using moment of correlation (MC) plane

Here, we present a new uncertainty estimation method for particle image velocimetry (PIV), that uses the correlation plane as a model for the probability density function (PDF) of displacements and calculates the second order moment of the correlation (MC). The cross-correlation between particle image patterns is the summation of all particle matches convolved with the apparent particle image diameter. MC uses this property to estimate the PIV uncertainty from the shape of the cross-correlation plane. In this new approach, the generalized cross-correlation (GCC) plane corresponding to a PIV measurement is obtained by removing the particle image diameter contribution. The GCC primary peak represents a discretization of the displacement PDF, from which the standard uncertainty is obtained by convolving the GCC plane with a Gaussian function. Then a Gaussian least-squares-fit is applied to the peak region, accounting for the stretching and rotation of the peak, due to the local velocity gradients and the effect of the convolved Gaussian. The MC method was tested with simulated image sets and the predicted uncertainties show good sensitivity to the error sources and agreement with the expected RMS error. Subsequently, the method was demonstrated in three PIV challenge cases and two experimental datasets and was compared with the published image matching (IM) and correlation statistics (CS) techniques. Results show that the MC method has a better response to spatial variation in RMS error and the predicted uncertainty is in good agreement with the expected standard uncertainty. The uncertainty prediction was also explored as a function of PIV interrogation window size. Overall, the MC method performance establishes itself as a valid uncertainty estimation tool for planar PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantification of the multi-streaming effect in redshift space distortion

Both multi-streaming (random motion) and bulk motion cause the Finger-of-God (FoG) effect in redshift space distortion (RSD). We apply a direct measurement of the multi-streaming effect in RSD from simulations, proving that it induces an additional, non-negligible FoG damping to the redshift space density power spectrum. We show that, including the multi-streaming effect, the RSD modelling is significantly improved. We also provide a theoretical explanation based on halo model for the measured effect, including a fitting formula with one to two free parameters. The improved understanding of FoG helps break the f σ{sub 8}−σ {sub v} degeneracy in RSD cosmology, and has the potential of significantly improving cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Lensing substructure quantification in RXJ1131-1231: a 2 keV lower bound on dark matter thermal relic mass

We study the substructure content of the strong gravitational lens RXJ1131-1231 through a forward modelling approach that relies on generating an extensive suite of realistic simulations. We use a semi-analytic merger tree prescription that allows us to stochastically generate substructure populations whose properties depend on the dark matter particle mass. These synthetic halos are then used as lenses to produce realistic mock images that have the same features, e.g. luminous arcs, quasar positions, instrumental noise and PSF, as the data. We then analyse the data and the simulations in the same way with summary statistics that are sensitive to the signal being targeted and are able to constrain models of dark matter statistically using Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC) techniques. (In this work, we focus on the thermal relic mass estimate and fix the semi-analytic descriptions of the substructure evolution based on recent literature.) We are able, based on the HST data for RXJ1131-1231, to rule out a warm dark matter thermal relic mass below 2 keV at the 2σ confidence level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of locked mode instability triggered by a change in confinement

Abstract This work presents the first analysis of the disruptive locked mode (LM) triggered by the dynamics of a confinement change. It shows that, under certain conditions, the LM threshold during the transient is significantly lower than expected from steady states. We investigate the sensitivity to a controlled n = 1 error field (EF) activated prior to the L-H transition in the COMPASS tokamak, at q 95 ∼ 3, β N ∼ 1, and using EF coils on the high-field side of the vessel. A threshold for EF penetration subsequent to the L-H transition is identified, which shows no significant trend with density or applied torque, and is an apparent consequence of the reduced intrinsic rotation of the 2/1 mode during this transient phase. This finding challenges the assumption made in theoretical and empirical works that natural mode rotation can be predicted by global plasma parameters and urges against using any parametric EF penetration scaling derived from steady-state experiments to define the EF correction strategy in the entire discharge. Furthermore, even at EFs below the identified penetration threshold, disruptive locking of sawtooth-seeded 2/1 tearing modes is observed after about 30% of L-H transitions without external torque.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty quantification in the analyses of operational wind power plant performance

In the present work, we examine the variation introduced in the evaluation of an operating plant's wind power production as a result of the choices analysts make in the processing of the operational data. For this study, an idealized power production for individual turbines over an operational period was predicted by fitting power curves to the turbine production data collected during expected operation (that is, without curtailment or availability losses). A set of 240 possible methods were developed for (a) defining what data represented expected operation and (b) modeling the power curve. The spread in the idealized power production as predicted by the different methods was on average almost 3% for the 100 turbines considered. Such significant variation places a lower bound on the precision with which analysts may employ such data as benchmarks for calibration of their energy estimation processes and limits the potential for identification of refinements to the energy estimation models for improved accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗