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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Progress Report: SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program is a collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). For corrosion detection, Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM) or Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS) data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (e.g., height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). A user-friendly Matlab Graphical User Interface (GUI) that reads data from either LCM or WAMS files was developed to integrate input data with software developed for processing and evaluation. The GUI can selectively download binary data, interrogate data attributes, label data, flag significant features, execute Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, output parameters for trained ML algorithms, report ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generate graphical representations for various analyses. Features can be called out by user-specified thresholds, manual labeling or machine learning algorithms when they have been completed. The ability to rapidly label data is important because of the volume of data required for training machine learning algorithms. The GUI has the flexibility to allow addition of improved ML algorithms, methods for data visualization, and statistical computations. Statistical analyses via the GUI include areas of pits within a defined range of pit depths, correlations between Red-Green-Blue (RGB) or grayscale intensity and relative surface height, covariances between values associated with features, and feature histograms. The development of supervised machine learning algorithms, however, has been hindered by a lack of training data. The machine learning algorithms for crack identification are being refined but require improvements to the true positive rate for crack detection. This shortcoming is an artifact of the limited training data currently available, perhaps more so than the structure of the neural networks. At present, the best results are had from a consensus over an ensemble of randomly generated Deep Neural Network (DNN) or Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithms. Although the consensus accuracy method has yielded optimum true positive and true negative rates in excess of 80%, additional validation testing is necessary. In addition to the suite of LCM data that was initially used, and which represents the majority of the work presented in this report, WAMS image data was also reviewed at a preliminary level. The review included a comparison between image resolution and dynamic range for each method. WAMS (ZON file) image data was found to have a pixel pitch of 3.69μm compared to 1 μm for the LCM (vk4 file) data, which implies a lower resolution for the WAMS images. Conversely, the ratio of dynamic range of the WAMS data to the LCM data was approximately 41:20 for height data, suggesting that information from WAMS should more accurately determine the depth of pits. At present, the significance of the greater dynamic range of the WAMS data relative to the LCM data has not yet been evaluated.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Weighted greedy-optimal design of computer experiments for kernel-based and Gaussian process model emulation and calibration

This article is concerned with the approximation of high-dimensional functions by kernel-based methods. Motivated by uncertainty quantification, which often necessitates the construction of approximations that are accurate with respect to a probability density function of random variables, we aim at minimizing the approximation error with respect to a weighted $L^p$-norm. We present a greedy procedure for designing computer experiments based upon a weighted modification of the pivoted Cholesky factorization. The method successively generates nested samples with the goal of minimizing error in regions of high probability. Numerical experiments validate that this new importance sampling strategy is superior to other sampling approaches, especially when used with non-product probability density functions. We also show how to use the proposed algorithm to efficiently generate surrogates for inferring unknown model parameters from data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

ML-Based Pebble Power Reconstruction for Pebble Bed Reactor Analysis

Pebble power reconstruction has been explored to complement the conventional homogenized modeling approach in pebble bed reactor (PBR) analysis, as detailed heterogeneous geometry calculations are computationally expensive. The random distribution of pebble fuels within the core challenges the application of conventional pin power reconstruction methods. To address this, we introduce a machine learning approach based on the transformer model, composed of encoder and decoder layers, to estimate the flux and power form functions for reconstructing individual pebble neutron fluxes and powers. The homogeneous neutron flux distribution within each spectral zone (SZ) is obtained from finite element solutions of global diffusion or transport calculations. Verification tests demonstrate that the trained transformer model accurately predicts power form functions over a range of conditions, including variations in pebble enrichment, location, type, SZ size, and burnup. In particular, verification using a three-dimensional PBR benchmark with burned pebbles shows good agreement in heterogeneous pebble power distributions between Griffin and Serpent. These results highlight the potential of applying conventional pin power reconstruction approaches to PBR cores with randomly distributed pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Low-Rank Solution Methods for Stochastic Eigenvalue Problems

In this report, we study efficient solution methods for stochastic eigenvalue problems arising from discretization of self-adjoint partial differential equations with random data, where the underlying operators depend linearly on the random parameters. With the stochastic Galerkin approach, the solutions are represented as generalized polynomial chaos expansions. When these solutions can be approximated well by low-rank objects, we introduce a low-rank variant of the inverse subspace iteration algorithm for computing one or several minimal eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors of parameter-dependent matrices. In the algorithm, the iterates are approximated by low-rank matrices, which leads to significant cost savings. Furthermore, the algorithm is tested on two benchmark problems, a stochastic diffusion problem with some poorly separated eigenvalues, and an operator derived from a discrete stochastic Stokes problem whose minimal eigenvalue is related to the inf-sup stability constant. Numerical experiments show that the low-rank algorithm produces accurate solutions compared to the Monte Carlo method, and it uses much less computational time than the original algorithm without low-rank approximation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting solid state material platforms for quantum technologies

Semiconductor materials provide a compelling platform for quantum technologies (QT). However, identifying promising material hosts among the plethora of candidates is a major challenge. Therefore, we have developed a framework for the automated discovery of semiconductor platforms for QT using material informatics and machine learning methods. Different approaches were implemented to label data for training the supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests and gradient boosting. We find that an empirical approach relying exclusively on findings from the literature yields a clear separation between predicted suitable and unsuitable candidates. In contrast to expectations from the literature focusing on band gap and ionic character as important properties for QT compatibility, the ML methods highlight features related to symmetry and crystal structure, including bond length, orientation and radial distribution, as influential when predicting a material as suitable for QT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extending water vapor measurement capability of photon-limited differential absorption lidars through simultaneous denoising and inversion

Abstract. The micropulse differential absorption lidar (MPD) was developed at Montana State University (MSU) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to perform range-resolved water vapor (WV) measurements using low-power lasers and photon-counting detectors. The MPD has proven to produce accurate WV measurements up to 6 km altitude. However, the MPD's ability to produce accurate higher-altitude WV measurements is impeded by the current standard differential absorption lidar (DIAL) retrieval methods. These methods are built upon a fundamental methodology that algebraically solves for the WV using the MPD forward models and noisy observations, which exacerbates any random noise in the lidar observations. The work in this paper introduces the adapted Poisson total variation (PTV) specifically for the MPD instrument. PTV was originally developed for a ground-based high spectral resolution lidar, and this paper reports on the adaptations that were required in order to apply PTV on MPD WV observations. The adapted PTV method, coined PTV-MPD, extends the maximum altitude of the MPD from 6 to 8 km and substantially increases the accuracy of the WV retrievals starting above 2 km. PTV-MPD achieves the improvement by simultaneously denoising the MPD noisy observations and inferring the WV by separating the random noise from the non-random WV. An analysis with 130 radiosonde (RS) comparisons shows that the relative root-mean-square difference (RRMSE) of WV measurements between RS and PTV-MPD exceeds 100 % between 6 and 8 km, whereas the RRMSE between RS and the standard method exceeds 100 % near 3 km. In addition, we show that by employing PTV-MPD, the MPD is able to extend its useful range of WV estimates beyond that of the ARM Southern Great Plains Raman lidar (RRMSE exceeding 100 % between 3 and 4 km); the Raman lidar has a power-aperture product 500 times greater than that of the MPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Resolvent-Techniques for Multiple Exercise Problems

We study optimal multiple stopping of strong Markov processes with random refraction periods. The refraction periods are assumed to be exponentially distributed with a common rate and independent of the underlying dynamics. Our main tool is using the resolvent operator. In the first part, we reduce infinite stopping problems to ordinary ones in a general strong Markov setting. This leads to explicit solutions for wide classes of such problems. Starting from this result, we analyze problems with finitely many exercise rights and explain solution methods for some classes of problems with underlying Lévy and diffusion processes, where the optimal characteristics of the problems can be identified more explicitly. We illustrate the main results with explicit examples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Group structure selection with random forests

Choosing an appropriate group structure for multigroup transport is far from an exact science. For some applications, one blindly uses a group structure developed years ago by forgotten methods. Furthermore, one sometimes uses the same group structure for a variety of problems, even if the group structure was originally developed with a certain application in mind. In this work, we create optimized group structures with simulated annealing for critical assembly test problems and apply a random forest regressor with bagging to choose the best group structure based on parameters of the different test problems. The optimized group structures were generated using a simulated annealing optimizer for several simple, spherical, and unreflected problems. The optimization was performed to minimize a cost function that included fission rate, absorption rate, leakage, and k{sub eff}. A random forest regressor was then trained on a set of International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project inputs and used to select one of these six group structures. The trained machine learning model chose the best group structure 65% of the time, and one of the three best 89% of the time. Furthermore, it decreased the L2 error over all test problems by a factor of 25 when compared to the standard Los Alamos 70-group structure. In other words, the model chose group structure that were far more appropriate for the test problems than the traditional LANL group structure. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Note on Exponential Decay in the Random Field Ising Model

For the two-dimensional random field Ising model (RFIM) with bimodal (i.e., two-valued) external field, we prove exponential decay of correlations either (i) when the temperature is larger than the critical temperature of the Ising model without external field and the magnetic field strength is small or (ii) at any temperature when the magnetic field strength is sufficiently large. Unlike previous work on exponential decay, our approach is not based on cluster expansions but rather on arguably simpler methods; these combine an analysis of the Kertész line and a coupling of Ising measures (and also their random cluster representations) with different boundary conditions. We also show similar but weaker results for the RFIM with a general field distribution and in any dimension.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Based Resilience Testing of an Address Randomization Cyber Defense

Moving target defenses (MTDs) are widely used as an active defense strategy for thwarting cyberattacks on cyber-physical systems by increasing diversity of software and network paths. Recently, machine Learning (ML) and deep Learning (DL) models have been demonstrated to defeat some of the cyber defenses by learning attack detection patterns and defense strategies. It raises concerns about the susceptibility of MTD to ML and DL methods. Here, in this article, we analyze the effectiveness of ML and DL models when it comes to deciphering MTD methods and ultimately evade MTD-based protections in real-time systems. Specifically, we consider a MTD algorithm that periodically randomizes address assignments within the MIL-STD-1553 protocol—a military standard serial data bus. Two ML and DL-based tasks are performed on MIL-STD-1553 protocol to measure the effectiveness of the learning models in deciphering the MTD algorithm: 1) determining whether there is an address assignments change i.e., whether the given system employs a MTD protocol and if it does 2) predicting the future address assignments. The supervised learning models (random forest and k-nearest neighbors) effectively detected the address assignment changes and classified whether the given system is equipped with a specified MTD protocol. On the other hand, the unsupervised learning model (K-means) was significantly less effective. The DL model (long short-term memory) was able to predict the future addresses with varied effectiveness based on MTD algorithm's settings.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hyperfractionated Accelerated Radiation Therapy (HART) of 70.6 Gy With Concurrent 5-FU/Mitomycin C Is Superior to HART of 77.6 Gy Alone in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer: Long-term Results of the ARO 95-06 Randomized Phase III Trial

Purpose: To report the long-term results of the ARO 95-06 randomized trial comparing hyperfractionated accelerated chemoradiation with mitomycin C/5-fluorouracil (C-HART) with hyperfractionated accelerated radiation therapy (HART) alone in locally advanced head and neck cancer. Patients and Methods: The primary endpoint was locoregional control (LRC). Three hundred eighty-four patients with stage III (6%) and IV (94%) oropharyngeal (59.4%), hypopharyngeal (32.3%), and oral cavity (8.3%) cancer were randomly assigned to 30 Gy/2 Gy daily followed by twice-daily 1.4 Gy to a total of 70.6 Gy concurrently with mitomycin C/5-FU (C-HART) or 16 Gy/2 Gy daily followed by twice-daily 1.4 Gy to a total dose of 77.6 Gy alone (HART). Statistical analyses were done with the log-rank test and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results: The median follow-up time was 8.7 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.8-9.7 years). At 10 years, the LRC rates were 38.0% (C-HART) versus 26.0% (HART, P=.002). The cancer-specific survival and overall survival rates were 39% and 10% (C-HART) versus 30.0% and 9% (HART, P=.042 and P=.049), respectively. According to multivariate Cox regression analysis, the combined treatment was associated with improved LRC (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.6 [95% CI: 0.5-0.8; P=.002]). The association between combined treatment arm and increased LRC appeared to be limited to oropharyngeal cancer (P=.003) as compared with hypopharyngeal or oral cavity cancer (P=.264). Conclusions: C-HART remains superior to HART in terms of LRC. However, this effect may be limited to oropharyngeal cancer patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A sparse reconstruction method for the estimation of multi-resolution emission fields via atmospheric inversion

Atmospheric inversions are frequently used to estimate fluxes of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., biospheric CO 2 flux fields) at Earth's surface. These inversions typically assume that flux departures from a prior model are spatially smoothly varying, which are then modeled using a multi-variate Gaussian. When the field being estimated is spatially rough, multi-variate Gaussian models are difficult to construct and a wavelet-based field model may be more suitable. Unfortunately, such models are very high dimensional and are most conveniently used when the estimation method can simultaneously perform data-driven model simplification (removal of model parameters that cannot be reliably estimated) and fitting. Such sparse reconstruction methods are typically not used in atmospheric inversions. In this work, we devise a sparse reconstruction method, and illustrate it in an idealized atmospheric inversion problem for the estimation of fossil fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2 ) emissions in the lower 48 states of the USA. Our new method is based on stagewise orthogonal matching pursuit (StOMP), a method used to reconstruct compressively sensed images. Our adaptations bestow three properties to the sparse reconstruction procedure which are useful in atmospheric inversions. We have modified StOMP to incorporate prior information on the emission field being estimated and to enforce non-negativity on the estimated field. Finally, though based on wavelets, our method allows for the estimation of fields in non-rectangular geometries, e.g., emission fields inside geographical and political boundaries. Our idealized inversions use a recently developed multi-resolution (i.e., wavelet-based) random field model developed for ffCO 2 emissions and synthetic observations of ffCO 2 concentrations from a limited set of measurement sites. We find that our method for limiting the estimated field within an irregularly shaped region is about a factor of 10 faster than conventional approaches. It also reduces the overall computational cost by a factor of 2. Further, the sparse reconstruction scheme imposes non-negativity without introducing strong nonlinearities, such as those introduced by employing log-transformed fields, and thus reaps the benefits of simplicity and computational speed that are characteristic of linear inverse problems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multisource Data Fusion Outage Location in Distribution Systems via Probabilistic Graphical Models

Efficient outage location is critical to enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems. However, accurate outage location requires combining massive evidence received from diverse data sources, including smart meter (SM) last gasp signals, customer trouble calls, social media messages, weather data, vegetation information, and physical parameters of the network. This is a computationally complex task due to the high dimensionality of data in distribution grids. In this paper, we propose a multi-source data fusion approach to locate outage events in partially observable distribution systems using Bayesian networks (BNs). A novel aspect of the proposed approach is that it takes multi-source evidence and the complex structure of distribution systems into account using a probabilistic graphical method. Our method can radically reduce the computational complexity of outage location inference in high-dimensional spaces. The graphical structure of the proposed BN is established based on the network’s topology and the causal relationship between random variables, such as the states of branches/customers and evidence. Utilizing this graphical model, accurate outage locations are obtained by leveraging a Gibbs sampling (GS) method, to infer the probabilities of de-energization for all branches. Compared with commonly-used exact inference methods that have exponential complexity in the size of the BN, GS quantifies the target conditional probability distributions in a timely manner. As a result, a case study of several real-world distribution systems is presented to validate the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Subset Simulation using Hamiltonian Neural Network enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

The Monte Carlo method delivers an unbiased estimate of the probability of failure. However, the variance of the estimate depends on the number of evaluated samples. This number must be very large for estimations of a low probability of failure. If the evaluation of each sample is computationally expensive, the crude Monte Carlo simulation strategy is impracticable. Therefore, subset simulations are used to reduce the required number of evaluations. Subset simulations require a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, such as the random walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The algorithm, however, struggles with sampling in low-probability regions, especially if they are narrow. As a consequence, advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations have been developed. In particular, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method explores the target distribution rapidly. Driven by the idea of Hamiltonian dynamics, this sampler provides a non-random walk through the target distribution. The incorporation of subset simulation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods has shown promising results for reliability analysis. One downside of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method is that gradient evaluations are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with high-dimensional problems and evaluating long trajectories. We show that integrating Hamiltonian neural networks in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations significantly speeds up the sampling task. Furthermore, the enhancement of adaptive trajectory length within the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo results in the efficient proposal of the following states. Based on this recent enhancement, we provide a fast sampling strategy for subset simulations using Hamiltonian neural networks to replace the evaluation of the gradient and significantly speed up the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the accuracy of freight mode choice models: A case study using the 2017 CFS PUF data set and ensemble learning techniques

Here, the US Census Bureau has collected two rounds of experimental data from the Commodity Flow Survey, providing shipment-level characteristics of nationwide commodity movements, published in 2012 (i.e., Public Use Microdata) and in 2017 (i.e., Public Use File). With this information, data-driven methods have become increasingly valuable for understanding detailed patterns in freight logistics. In this study, we used the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use File data set to explore building a high-performance freight mode choice model, considering three main improvements: (1) constructing local models for each separate commodity/industry category; (2) extracting useful geographical features, particularly the derived distance of each freight mode between origin/destination zones; and (3) applying additional ensemble learning methods such as stacking or voting to combine results from local and unified models for improved performance. The proposed method achieved over 92% accuracy without incorporating external information, an over 19% increase compared to directly fitting Random Forests models over 10,000 samples. Furthermore, SHAP (Shapely Additive Explanations) values were computed to explain the outputs and major patterns obtained from the proposed model. The model framework could enhance the performance and interpretability of existing freight mode choice models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Role of Pretreatment FDG-PET in Treating Cervical Cancer Patients With Enlarged Pelvic Lymph Node(s) Shown on MRI: A Phase 3 Randomized Trial With Long-Term Follow-Up

Purpose: This report is the second analysis of a prospective randomized trial to investigate the impact of {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) on cervical cancer patients with enlarged pelvic lymph nodes identified by magnetic resonance imaging. Methods and Materials: Patients with newly diagnosed cervical cancer with enlarged pelvic lymph nodes but free of enlarged para-aortic lymph nodes (PALN) were eligible. Patients were randomized to receive either pretreatment FDG-PET (PET arm) or not (control arm). The whole pelvis was the standard irradiation field for all patients except those with FDG-avid extrapelvic findings. Results: In all, 129 patients were enrolled. Pretreatment PET detected extrapelvic metastases in 7 patients. No new patient experienced treatment failure during the additional 4-year follow-up period. There were no significant differences between the PET arm and the control arm regarding overall survival, disease-free survival, and freedom from extrapelvic metastasis. In the control arm, 8 of 10 patients with PALN relapse had limited extrapelvic nodal failures; their 5-year disease-specific survival was 34.3%. By contrast, only 1 of 5 patients with PALN relapse in the PET arm experienced such limited failures; their 5-year survival rate was 0%. Conclusions: Although the pretreatment detection of PALN did not translate into survival benefit, it indeed decreased the need for extended-field concurrent chemoradiation therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Integrity

A probability-based approach, combining deterministic and probabilistic methods, was developed for analyzing building and component failures, which are especially crucial for complex structures like nuclear power plants. This method links finite element and probabilistic software to assess structural integrity under static and dynamic loads. This study uses NEPTUNE software, which is validated, for a deterministic transient analysis and ProFES software for probabilistic models. In a case study, deterministic analyses with varied random variables were transferred to ProFES for probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. A Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method, and combined methods were employed for probabilistic analyses under severe transient loading, focusing on a postulated accident at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The study considered uncertainties in material properties, component geometry, and loads. The results showed the Monte Carlo Simulation method to be conservative for high failure probabilities but less so for low probabilities. The Response Surface/Monte Carlo Simulation method explored the impact load–failure probability relationship. Given the uncertainties in material properties and loads in complex structures, a deterministic analysis alone is insufficient. Probabilistic analysis is imperative for extreme loading events and credible structural safety evaluations.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2019

A unique but flexible space–time could challenge multiverse theories

Highlights: The growing law of a billiard multiverse is independent of the discretization scale E. The time for any final state to be accessible from any initial one is around 3E shocks. The paths of billiard balls can change without changing initial or final states. Space-time flexibility can be achieved through paths commutations and entanglement. -- Abstract: In a previous paper (Guillemant et al., 2018), we have shown using a 2D billiard toy model that the propagation of uncertainties resulting from space–time discretization leads to a classical multiverse. In this one we estimate the growing law of the number of its branches, thanks to an original shock indexation method that permits a very fast comparison of trajectories. For different involved parameters we use random sets of infinitesimally perturbed initial conditions. From each set, we compute a collection up to hundred millions of different billiard histories. Our main result is the calculation of a Brownian saturation time when the number of branches begins to exceed the total number of billiard states. We discuss the possibility suggested by this result to change locally the paths of objects without changing their past and future histories and then subverting their global system. We conclude that a unique but flexible space–time could compete with the current many-worlds interpretation claiming that each branch is a different universe.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗