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Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

Abstract The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ s ). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.

Baer, Kathryn C.↗

AIAA ASCEND 2023 Panel Session Proposal: Community Perspectives on Establishing a Government-Funded National Laboratory in a Commercially-Driven LEO Ecosystem

AIAA ASCEND 2023 Panel Session Proposal: Community Perspectives on Establishing a Government-Funded National Laboratory in a Commercially-Driven LEO Ecosystem Submitted by the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy March 8, 2023 Session Format: Panel Session Topic: Expanding and Evolving the Space Economy Session Title: Community Perspectives on Establishing a Government-Funded National Laboratory in a Commercially-Driven LEO Ecosystem Short Session Description: NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of government-sponsored low-Earth orbit (LEO) activities to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs), which includes a government-funded national lab. This transition necessitates new models to connect government-funded users of the LEO environment to CLDs. This panel will highlight updates on what may constitute a national laboratory, share perspectives from members of LEO user communities, and open the discussion for additional comments. Requested Session Duration: 90 minutes Extended Session Description: NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of low-Earth orbit (LEO) activities to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs), including planning for a national laboratory. This transition necessitates new models for connecting government-funded users of the LEO environment to CLDs. NASA has made progress on models and a stepwise strategy to enable this national laboratory. This session will discuss guiding national strategies and highlight perspectives on what constitutes a national laboratory from current user communities. A NASA panel participant will introduce the rationale for continuing a national laboratory utilizing CLDs and speak on progress-to-date. This includes furthering national priorities to continue a space-based microgravity national laboratory. It also may include a brief overview of a study conducted by NASA which elucidates a trade space of models for a national laboratory and highlights from an interagency working group on microgravity for additional context. A moderator and five panelists representing diverse LEO user communities will then share perspectives on topics relating to this new dynamic ecosystem, expectations for models and activities, and other thoughts on NASA’s progress. Panelists may consist of members from the following communities: NASA, other U.S. government agencies, startups, small businesses, academia, and non-profits. The panel then plans to open discussion to the audience for questions, input, and additional feedback. Session Goal(s)/Outcome(s): By hosting a panel session, NASA aims to accomplish two goals. First, NASA wishes to update the community on progress towards establishing a national laboratory in low-Earth orbit. This includes sharing key perspectives heard from stakeholder communities. The second goal is to highlight the collaborative nature of such an undertaking and to facilitate additional discussion with other current and future users of the LEO community. Participants (not exhaustive): Erica Rodgers; Robyn Gatens

Erica Marie Rodgers Heusinkveld↗

Comments on the present state of second-order closure models for incompressible flows

Second-order closure models account for history and nonlocal effects of the mean velocity gradients on the Reynolds stress tensor. Turbulent flows involving body forces or curvature, Reynolds stress relaxational effects, and counter-gradient transport are usually better described. The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include: (1) the Reynolds stress transport equation; (2) issues in second-order closure modeling; and (3) near wall models.

Speziale, Charles G.↗

Model-Based Systems Engineering Pathfinder: Informing the Next Steps

In 2016, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center established a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) Pathfinder. The primary motivations for establishing the MBSE Pathfinder were to advance the Agency's applications of MBSE and capture lessons-learned to inform the next steps. The MBSE Pathfinder had four teams working in parallel for eight months on different topics of interest to NASA. The teams were encouraged to learn, and use creativity and innovation in their system modeling. The results were captured via reports, webinars, and a knowledge capture meeting. The approach taken for the MBSE Pathfinder was very successful in providing a number of lessons-learned for NASA and for other organizations considering MBSE or pathfinder efforts, and in building a very strong and collaborative user community.

Weiland, Karen J.↗

Modeling the Inner Magnetosphere: Radiation Belts, Ring Current, and Composition

The space environment is a complex system defined by regions of differing length scales, characteristic energies, and physical processes. It is often difficult, or impossible, to treat all aspects of the space environment relative to a particular problem with a single model. In our studies, we utilize several models working in tandem to examine this highly interconnected system. The methodology and results will be presented for three focused topics: 1) Rapid radiation belt electron enhancements, 2) Ring current study of Energetic Neutral Atoms (ENAs), Dst, and plasma composition, and 3) Examination of the outflow of ionospheric ions. In the first study, we use a coupled MHD magnetosphere - kinetic radiation belt model to explain recent Akebono/RDM observations of greater than 2.5 MeV radiation belt electron enhancements occurring on timescales of less than a few hours. In the second study, we present initial results of a ring current study using a newly coupled kinetic ring current model with an MHD magnetosphere model. Results of a dst study for four geomagnetic events are shown. Moreover, direct comparison with TWINS ENA images are used to infer the role that composition plays in the ring current. In the final study, we directly model the transport of plasma from the ionosphere to the magnetosphere. We especially focus on the role of photoelectrons and and wave-particle interactions. The modeling methodology for each of these studies will be detailed along with the results.

Glocer, Alex↗

Assurance Equations: A Cost and Criticality Model for Optimizing Quality Assurance Surveillance

The cost of quality vs cost of failure correction has been a long-running topic of discussion within the Aerospace community. It leads directly to concepts of “risk tolerance”, and risk-based decision-making. It would be valuable if there was a way to compute the optimal investment in customer-executed quality assurance activities using defect significance with respect to performance objectives, the activities’ defect detection effectiveness, and the cost-penalty for late discovery of impactful defects. This optimization is particularly of interest to projects whose budget constraints significantly limit their risk management options.The cost to fix defects (i.e., failure correction) escalates as the project matures. There have been studies attempting to determine the relative cost of fixing defects discovered during various phases of a project life cycle with important implications, all of which suggest growth factors are large. The commonly referred to 1:10:100 rule represents a cost multiplier for repair/rework across the Design to Fab to Test hardware development phases. Cost premiums for QA activities also accumulate when they are treated as mandatory (due to schedule drag) or are performed later than their assigned phase.This paper describes the modeling of development phase -dependencies in the conduct of typical customer-executed quality assurance activities. Our initial modeling encompasses:• Distinct phases of the production lifecycle• Multiple kinds of Defects, each with some a-priori likelihood of being present• Each defect’s impact on performance Objectives for a type of hardware• The cost and efficacy of assurance techniques at detecting such Defects• The costs of fixing those Defects detected in a given phase of the production lifecycleThe model captures assurance activities’ abilities to Detect defects. Upon detection it is assumed that the Defect is immediately fixed. Defects that “escape” detection by some activity may thereafter be detected by a later activity, but by then the cost of fixing the Defect may have escalated. Defects are related to the performance Objectives they would detract from, were those Defects to remain present in the operating system.We have constructed and are exploring, a model that relates the importance of hardware system elements to mission objectives, the impact of types of Defects on those hardware types, the cost of customer-executed assurance activities (i.e., supplier controls) and their effectiveness towards reducing an impactful quality escape, and the cost of Defect correction across production phase. We describe the approach taken to select the key model aspects, why they are relevant to our NASA mission, and our efforts to populate it with relevant and contemporary data. We use a notional example to illustrate model design and function.

Plante, Jeannette↗

Beta in Streamers

Streamers are generally described as regions of the corona in which the density is higher than in coronal holes because the plasma is trapped by closed loops of magnetic flux. In contrast, MHD models of the global corona show the plasma beta in streamers above siml.2R_S (heliocentric). There are three recent contributions to this topic. The first is that heating near the cusp further drives beta up and results in release of new slow solar wind plasma from the top of the streamer. The second is SOHO/UVCS observations, in combination with a potential field/source surface model of the magnetic field, that show beta above 1.2R_S in a streamer observed near solar sunspot minimum. The third is a magnetic field reconstruction technique that uses field deforming algorithms and is more versatile for local fields than potential field models . The field reconstruction algorithm was applied to an isolated active region (AR 7999) and to the Pneuman Kopp global MHD model (beta has never been published for their model). In the active region, beta becomes larger than unity at siml.2 R_S. In the Pneuman & Kopp model, beta at the base of the streamer and rises with increasing height, becoming 15-20 at 1.6R_S and 35- 50 at 1.7R_S. Global simulations go on to show that the reason streamers do not simply explode under such high beta conditions is that they are held down by pressure from the sides due to the magnetic fields (and low beta) in adjacent coronal holes. The main role of the closed magnetic loop near the cusp is to keep the steamer from continuously leaking plasma, as otherwise happens in a magnetic pinch which is similar but has no closed loops. Awareness of MHD physical conditions in streamers is causing us to focus more attention on the details of the heating. On obvious suggestion is that heating is at much lower heights in streamers than in coronal holes. Also, energy which is directly delivered as momentum in coronal holes might all be deposited as heat in streamers.

Suess, Steven T.↗

Modeling and Analysis of Wrinkled Membranes: An Overview

Thin-film membranes are basic elements of a variety of space inflatable/deployable structures. Wrinkling degrades the performance and reliability of these membrane structures, and hence has been a topic of continued interest. Wrinkling analysis of membranes for general geometry and arbitrary boundary conditions is quite challenging. The objective of this presentation is two-fold. Firstly, the existing models of wrinkled membranes and related numerical solution methods are reviewed. The important issues to be discussed are the capability of a membrane model to characterize taut, wrinkled and slack states of membranes in a consistent and physically reasonable manner; the ability of a wrinkling analysis method to predict the formation and growth of wrinkled regions, and to determine out-of-plane deformation and wrinkled waves; the convergence of a numerical solution method for wrinkling analysis; and the compatibility of a wrinkling analysis with general-purpose finite element codes. According to this review, several opening issues in modeling and analysis of wrinkled membranes that are to be addressed in future research are summarized, The second objective of this presentation is to discuss a newly developed membrane model of two viable parameters (2-VP model) and associated parametric finite element method (PFEM) for wrinkling analysis are introduced. The innovations and advantages of the proposed membrane model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis are: (1) Via a unified stress-strain relation; the 2-VP model treat the taut, wrinkled, and slack states of membranes consistently; (2) The PFEM-based wrinkling analysis has guaranteed convergence; (3) The 2-VP model along with PFEM is capable of predicting membrane out-of-plane deformations; and (4) The PFEM can be integrated into any existing finite element code. Preliminary numerical examples are also included in this presentation to demonstrate the 2-VP model and PFEM-based wrinkling analysis approach.

Yang, B.↗

Models for Water Isotopes Constrained with Data from Crystal Face

During the year covered by this proposal we conducted work on several different topics, as reflected by our publications listed below. One major activity was to work with a group of about 10 scientists from around the country to prepare a science-planning document (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4)) that outlined the rationale, locations, strategy to accomplish the goals, and possible payloads for a set of three tropical missions. We also prepared background materials for various NRAs being prepared at NASA Headquarters for missions in Costa Rica, Darwin and Guam. Unfortunately budgetary constraints prevented these missions from moving forward. In conjunction with the group NASA Ames we built a new numerical model for deep convection and have applied that model to simulate the CRYSTAL isotope data. Our goal in particular has been to better understanding how convection distributes water vapor isotopes. CRYSTAL observations of water isotopes are very different from those suggested by previous workers who assumed the isotopes would obey Rayleigh fractionation. The water isotope study has several implications. First it is a check on the realism of the deep convection model. Second, the isotopes are a measure of the precipitation removal in the atmosphere. Hence they provide a constraint on a parameter that is difficult to otherwise measure. Finally it has been suggested that isotopes may be the key to unraveling the water transport into the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Such transport is critical both for the radiation balance and for stratospheric chemistry. Ours is the first model that is able to treat this transport. Our initial results are now in press in Geophys. Res. Lett. Essentially we are able to explain the vertical profiles of isotopes in the tropical tropopause transition layer. We are also able to account for stratospheric humidity ana isotope abundances with this model. The data suggest that isotopes do not provide a clear constraint on the mechanism by which water enters the stratosphere- whether by convection, or by slow ascent. Our work is relevant for the water isotope comparison experiments recently done by NASA. We are conducting numerical experiments related to this project to help understand that data.

Toon, Owen B.↗

A System-Level Cost Modeling Framework for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of an Agricultural Machine Transmission

Remanufacturing offers significant environmental and economic benefits by restoring end-of-life products to as-new conditions. Although extensive research has been conducted on the topic, the adoption of remanufacturing practices remains limited across various industries. A primary barrier to broader implementation is the substantial upfront investment required, which necessitates reliable cost modeling to justify potential future savings. Most existing models treat components independently and ignore inter-component dependencies. We develop a probabilistic, system-level cost modeling framework that integrates reliability, reusability, and a dependency matrix to capture cascading effects across components over multiple life cycles. Our model identifies those critical components that maximize remanufacturing benefits across a product's many lives. A toy example and an industry case study (John Deere PowrQuad transmission subassembly) illustrate how design alternatives affect cumulative cost. Using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to perform life cycle cost analysis on the system with different design changes, we show the normalized average cost savings after three remanufacturing cycles. Accounting for dependencies meaningfully alters cost projections and ignoring them underestimates accumulated cost by up to 20% in our examples. Furthermore, the results of our study confirm that accounting for component interdependencies is necessary to produce cost estimates that meet industry standards.

Life Cycle Analysis and Design↗

Physically Based and Stochastic Models for Greenland Moulin Formation, Longevity, and Spatial Distribution

Nearly all proglacial water discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet is routed englacially, from the surface to the bed, via moulins. Identification of moulins in high-resolution imagery is a frequent topic of study, but the processes controlling how and where moulins form remain poorly understood. We seek to leverage information gained from the development of a physical model of moulin formation, remotely sensed ice-sheet data products, and an analytic model of ice-flow perturbations to develop a predictive stochastic model of moulin distribution across Greenland. Here we present initial results from the physical model of moulin formation and characterize the sensitivity of moulin geometry to a range of model parameters. This parameterization of moulin formation is the first step in developing a stochastic model that will be a predictive, computationally efficient representation of the englacial hydrologic system.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

3D Visualization of Cooperative Trajectories

Aerodynamicists and biologists have long recognized the benefits of formation flight. When birds or aircraft fly in the upwash region of the vortex generated by leaders in a formation, induced drag is reduced for the trail bird or aircraft, and efficiency improves. The major consequence of this is that fuel consumption can be greatly reduced. When two aircraft are separated by a large enough longitudinal distance, the aircraft are said to be flying in a cooperative trajectory. A simulation has been developed to model autonomous cooperative trajectories of aircraft; however it does not provide any 3D representation of the multi-body system dynamics. The topic of this research is the development of an accurate visualization of the multi-body system observable in a 3D environment. This visualization includes two aircraft (lead and trail), a landscape for a static reference, and simplified models of the vortex dynamics and trajectories at several locations between the aircraft.

aerodynamic drag↗

Modeling Atmosphere-Ocean Radiative Transfer: A PACE Mission Perspective

The research frontiers of radiative transfer (RT) in coupled atmosphere-ocean systems are explored to enable new science and specifically to support the upcoming Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite mission. Given (i) the multitude of atmospheric and oceanic constituents at any given moment that each exhibits a large variety of physical and chemical properties and (ii) the diversity of light-matter interactions (scattering, absorption, and emission), tackling all outstanding RT aspects related to interpreting and/or simulating light reflected by atmosphere-ocean systems becomes impossible. Instead, we focus on both theoretical and experimental studies of RT topics important to the science threshold and goal questions of the PACE mission and the measurement capabilities of its instruments. We differentiate between (a) forward (FWD) RT studies that focus mainly on sensitivity to influencing variables and/or simulating data sets, and (b) inverse (INV) RT studies that also involve the retrieval of atmosphere and ocean parameters. Our topics cover (1) the ocean (i.e., water body): absorption and elastic/inelastic scattering by pure water (FWD RT) and models for scattering and absorption by particulates (FWD RT and INV RT); (2) the air-water interface: variations in ocean surface refractive index (INV RT) and in whitecap reflectance (INV RT); (3) the atmosphere: polarimetric and/or hyperspectral remote sensing of aerosols (INV RT) and of gases (FWD RT); and (4) atmosphere-ocean systems: benchmark comparisons, impact of the Earth's sphericity and adjacency effects on space-borne observations, and scattering in the ultraviolet regime (FWD RT). We provide for each topic a summary of past relevant (heritage) work, followed by a discussion (for unresolved questions) and RT updates.

Chowdhary, Jacek↗

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spin-orbit density wave induced hidden topological order in URu2Si2

The conventional order parameters in quantum matters are often characterized by ‘spontaneous’ broken symmetries. However, sometimes the broken symmetries may blend with the invariant symmetries to lead to mysterious emergent phases. The heavy fermion metal URu2Si2 is one such example, where the order parameter responsible for a second-order phase transition at Th517.5 K has remained a long-standing mystery. Here we propose via ab-initio calculation and effective model that a novel spin-orbit density wave in the f-states is responsible for the hidden-order phase in URu2Si2. The staggered spin-orbit order spontaneously breaks rotational, and translational symmetries while time-reversal symmetry remains intact. Thus it is immune to pressure, but can be destroyed by magnetic field even at T 5 0 K, that means at a quantum critical point. We compute topological index of the order parameter to show that the hidden order is topologically invariant. Finally, some verifiable predictions are presented.

MATERIALS PHYSICS↗

Surface tension of spherical drops from surface of tension

The determination of surface tension of curved interfaces is a topic that raised many controversies during the last century. Explicit liquid-vapor interface modelling (ELVI) was unable up to now to reproduce interfacial behaviors in drops due to ambiguities in the mechanical definition of the surface tension. In this work, we propose a thermodynamic approach based on the location of surface of tension and its use in the Laplace equation to extract the surface tension of spherical interfaces from ELVI modelling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Foundations of plasma standards

Abstract The field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) excels by virtue of its broad intellectual diversity, interdisciplinarity and range of applications. This great diversity also challenges researchers in communicating the outcomes of their investigations, as common practices and expectations for reporting vary widely in the many disciplines that either fall under the LTP umbrella or interact closely with LTP topics. These challenges encompass comparing measurements made in different laboratories, exchanging and sharing computer models, enabling reproducibility in experiments and computations using traceable and transparent methods and data, establishing metrics for reliability, and in translating fundamental findings to practice. In this paper, we address these challenges from the perspective of LTP standards for measurements, diagnostics, computations, reporting and plasma sources. This discussion on standards, or recommended best practices, and in some cases suggestions for standards or best practices, has the goal of improving communication, reproducibility and transparency within the LTP field and fields allied with LTPs. This discussion also acknowledges that standards and best practices, either recommended or at some point enforced, are ultimately a matter of judgment. These standards and recommended practices should not limit innovation nor prevent research breakthroughs from having real-time impact. Ultimately, the goal of our research community is to advance the entire LTP field and the many applications it touches through a shared set of expectations.

data and reaction mechanisms↗

Semiclassical approaches to nuclear dynamics

The extended Gutzwiller trajectory approach is presented for the semiclassical description of nuclear collective dynamics, in line with the main topics of the fruitful activity of V.G. Solovjov. Within the Fermi-liquid droplet model, the leptodermous effective surface approximation was applied to calculations of energies, sum rules, and transition densities for the neutron–proton asymmetry of the isovector giant-dipole resonance and found to be in good agreement with the experimental data. By using the Strutinsky shell correction method, the semiclassical collective transport coefficients, such as nuclear inertia, friction, stiffness, and moments of inertia, can be derived beyond the quantum perturbation approximation of the response function theory and the cranking model. The averaged particle-number dependences of the low-lying collective vibrational states are described in good agreement with the basic experimental data, mainly due to the enhancement of the collective inertia as compared to its irrotational flow value. Shell components of the moment of inertia are derived in terms of the periodic-orbit free-energy shell corrections. A good agreement between the semiclassical extended Thomas–Fermi moments of inertia with shell corrections and the quantum results is obtained for different nuclear deformations and particle numbers. Shell effects are shown to be exponentially dampted out with increasing temperature in all the transport coefficients.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗