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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Exceptionally high spallation strength for a high-entropy alloy demonstrated by experiments and simulations

High-entropy alloys are materials with an increasing number of technological applications. Amongst them, the Cantor alloy, FeMnCoCrNi, shows desirable mechanical properties at normal loading conditions. In this study we focus on the performance of the Cantor alloy at the ultra-high deformation rates of shock waves. We study shock-induced spallation using both experiments and atomistic simulations. Experimental loading is achieved using high power laser, with VISAR to obtain velocity profiles and spall strength, followed by transmission electron microscopy of the recovered samples. Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations of shock-induced spallation are compared with experiments. Both experiments and simulations show a high spall strength which would be beneficial for certain applications, with experiments giving ~8 GPa at ~10 7 s -1 and MD giving almost ~30 GPa at ~10 9 s -1 . The difference between experiments and simulations can be explained by the difference in strain rate. Post-mortem analysis of the experimental samples shows nanotwins near the spall plane, while MD simulations show a highly disordered region giving rise to void nucleation and spall during loading.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grazing Incidence Wide-Angle X-ray Scattering of Water Adsorption in Polyamide Barrier Layers of Reverse Osmosis Membranes

To understand the relationship between the intermolecular structure of aromatic polyamide (PA) scaffold and the water molecules in the barrier layers of reverse osmosis (RO) membranes, a grazing incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS) study was carried out on freestanding PA thin films at varying relative humidity (RH) conditions. The scattering results were analyzed by an interference scattering model, containing a phase factor between a PA chain and an adsorbed water molecule. This model yielded good fits to the GIWAXS profiles where the water adsorption was found to vary linearly with RH. Atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were also performed to complement the experimental study. Furthermore, the simulations revealed that a rapid condensation layer initially formed on the PA film surface, followed by the slow water molecule diffusion inside the PA membrane. Sparse adsorbed water, isolated in subnanopores of the PA film adjacent to the polar atoms, even in very low quantities, modifies the X-ray scattering. Atomistic simulations at the microscopic scale provide partial support for several X-ray scattering findings.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Transport and Loss of Ring Current Electrons Inside Geosynchronous Orbit During the 17 March 2013 Storm

Ring current electrons (1–100 keV) have received significant attention in recent decades, but many questions regarding their major transport and loss mechanisms remain open. In this study, we use the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code to model the enhancement of phase space density that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm. Our model includes global convection, radial diffusion, and scattering into the Earth's atmosphere driven by whistler-mode hiss and chorus waves. We study the sensitivity of the model to the boundary conditions, global electric field, the electric field associated with subauroral polarization streams, electron loss rates, and radial diffusion coefficients. The results of the code are almost insensitive to the model parameters above 4.5 R E R E , which indicates that the general dynamics of the electrons between 4.5 R E and the geostationary orbit can be explained by global convection. We found that the major discrepancies between the model and data can stem from the inaccurate electric field model and uncertainties in lifetimes. We show that additional mechanisms that are responsible for radial transport are required to explain the dynamics of ≥40-keV electrons, and the inclusion of the radial diffusion rates that are typically assumed in radiation belt studies leads to a better agreement with the data. The overall effect of subauroral polarization streams on the electron phase space density profiles seems to be smaller than the uncertainties in other input parameters. This study is an initial step toward understanding the dynamics of these particles inside the geostationary orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transitions of foliar mycobiota community and transcriptome in response to pathogenic conifer needle interactions

Profiling the host–mycobiota interactions in healthy vs. diseased forest ecosystems helps understand the dynamics of understudied yet increasingly important threats to forest health that are emerging due to climate change. We analyzed the structural and functional changes of the mycobiota and the responses of Pinus contorta in the Lophodermella needle cast pathosystem through metabarcoding and metatranscriptomics. When needles transitioned from asymptomatic to symptomatic, dysbiosis of the mycobiota occurred, but with an enrichment of Lophodermella pathogens. Many pathogenicity-related genes were highly expressed by the mycobiota at the necrotrophic phase, showing an active pathogen response that are absent in asymptomatic needles. This study also revealed that Lophodermella spp. are members of a healthy needle mycobiota that have latent lifestyles suggesting that other pine needle pathogens may have similar biology. Interestingly, Pinus contorta upregulated defense genes in healthy needles, indicating response to fungal recognition, while a variety of biotic and abiotic stresses genes were activated in diseased needles. Further investigation to elucidate the possible antagonistic interplay of other biotic members leading to disease progression and/or suppression is warranted. This study provides insights into microbial interactions in non-model pathosystems and contributes to the development of new forest management strategies against emerging latent pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Micro-focused Brillouin light scattering study of the magnetization dynamics driven by Spin Hall effect in a transversely magnetized NiFe nanowire

We employed micro-focused Brillouin light scattering to study the amplification of the thermal spin wave eigenmodes by means of a pure spin current, generated by the spin-Hall effect, in a transversely magnetized Pt(4 nm)/NiFe(4 nm)/SiO{sub 2}(5 nm) layered nanowire with lateral dimensions 500 × 2750 nm{sup 2}. The frequency and the cross section of both the center (fundamental) and the edge spin wave modes have been measured as a function of the intensity of the injected dc electric current. The frequency of both modes exhibits a clear redshift while their cross section is greatly enhanced on increasing the intensity of the injected dc. A threshold-like behavior is observed for a value of the injected dc of 2.8 mA. Interestingly, an additional mode, localized in the central part of the nanowire, appears at higher frequency on increasing the intensity of the injected dc above the threshold value. Micromagnetic simulations were used to quantitatively reproduce the experimental results and to investigate the complex non-linear dynamics induced by the spin-Hall effect, including the modification of the spatial profile of the spin wave modes and the appearance of the extra mode above the threshold.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2017

Injector design for liner-on-target gas-puff experiments

We present the design of a gas-puff injector for liner-on-target experiments. The injector is composed of an annular high atomic number (e.g., Ar and Kr) gas and an on-axis plasma gun that delivers an ionized deuterium target. The annular supersonic nozzle injector has been studied using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to produce a highly collimated (M > 5), ∼1 cm radius gas profile that satisfies the theoretical requirement for best performance on ∼1-MA current generators. The CFD simulations allowed us to study output density profiles as a function of the nozzle shape, gas pressure, and gas composition. We have performed line-integrated density measurements using a continuous wave (CW) He–Ne laser to characterize the liner gas density. The measurements agree well with the CFD values. We have used a simple snowplow model to study the plasma sheath acceleration in a coaxial plasma gun to help us properly design the target injector.

Valenzuela, J. C. (ORCID:0000000184994599)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission interference fringe ( TIF ) technique for the dynamic visualization of evaporating droplet

Here, the transmission interference fringe (TIF) technique was developed to visualize the dynamics of evaporating droplets based on the Reflection Interference Fringe (RIF) technique for micro-sized droplets. The geometric formulation was conducted to determine the contact angle (CA) and height of macro-sized droplets without the need for the prism used in RIF. The TIF characteristics were analyzed through experiments and simulations to demonstrate a wider range of contact angles from 0 to 90°, in contrast to RIF's limited range of 0–30°. TIF was utilized to visualize the dynamic evaporation of droplets in the constant contact radius (CCR) mode, observing the droplet profile change from convex-only to convex-concave at the end of dry-out from the interference fringe formation. The TIF also observed the contact angle increase from the fringe radius increase. This observation is uniquely reported as the interference fringe (IF) technique can detect the formation of interference fringe between the reflection from the center convex profile and the reflection from the edge concave profile on the far-field screen. Unlike general microscopy techniques, TIF can detect far-field interference fringes as it focuses beyond the droplet-substrate interface. The formation of the convex-concave profile during CCR evaporation is believed to be influenced by the non-uniform evaporative flux along the droplet surface.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

New generation bunch shape monitor for ion accelerators

Measuring longitudinal beam parameters is important for operation and development of high intensity linear accelerators, but it is notoriously difficult for proton and ion beams at non-relativistic energies. The Bunch Shape Monitor (BSM) is a device used for measuring the longitudinal bunch distribution in ion linacs. The existing BSM models have poor electron collection efficiency from the wire and are limited to one-dimensional measurements of the phase coordinate. In response to this problem, we have developed a new generation BSM with improved performance. The proposed design incorporates three major innovations: First, the collection efficiency was improved by adding a focusing field between the wire and the entrance slit, which will also allow measurements over a much wider dynamic range. Second, an improvement in the measurement speed was achieved by sampling longitudinal profiles of multiple energy slices simultaneously, where the BSM wire is placed at the exit of an ion spectrometer so that ions with different energies hit the wire at different horizontal coordinates along the wire. Finally, the design incorporates a motion system that can shift the wire and deflecting cavity together, enabling transverse profile measurements like a wire scanner. Here, in this paper, we will provide the design of the new BSM and report on its beam test results at the Spallation Neutron Source facility in Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE STRUCTURE OF NUCLEAR STAR CLUSTERS IN NEARBY LATE-TYPE SPIRAL GALAXIES FROM HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE WIDE FIELD CAMERA 3 IMAGING

We obtained Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 imaging of a sample of ten of the nearest and brightest nuclear clusters (NCs) residing in late-type spiral galaxies, in seven bands that span the near-UV to the near-IR. Structural properties of the clusters were measured by fitting two-dimensional surface brightness profiles to the images using GALFIT. The clusters exhibit a wide range of structural properties, with F814W absolute magnitudes that range from −11.2 to −15.1 mag and F814W effective radii that range from 1.4 to 8.3 pc. For 6 of the 10 clusters in our sample, we find changes in the effective radius with wavelength, suggesting radially varying stellar populations. In four of the objects, the effective radius increases with wavelength, indicating the presence of a younger population that is more concentrated than the bulk of the stars in the cluster. However, we find a general decrease in effective radius with wavelength in two of the objects in our sample, which may indicate extended, circumnuclear star formation. We also find a general trend of increasing roundness of the clusters at longer wavelengths, as well as a correlation between the axis ratios of the NCs and their host galaxies. These observations indicate that blue disks aligned with the host galaxy plane are a common feature of NCs in late-type galaxies, but are difficult to detect in galaxies that are close to face-on. In color–color diagrams spanning the near-UV through the near-IR, most of the clusters lie far from single-burst evolutionary tracks, showing evidence for multi-age populations. Most of the clusters have integrated colors consistent with a mix of an old population (>1 Gyr) and a young population (∼100–300 Myr). The wide wavelength coverage of our data provides a sensitivity to populations with a mix of ages that would not be possible to achieve with imaging in optical bands only. The surface brightness profiles presented in this work will be used for future stellar population modeling and dynamical studies of the clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of extreme ultraviolet imaging spectrometer observations of solar coronal loops with Alfvén wave turbulence models

The observed non-thermal widths of coronal emission lines could be due to Alfvén wave turbulence. To test this idea, we examine and analyze the dynamics of an active region observed on 2012 September 7. We use spectral line profiles of Fe XII, Fe XIII, Fe XV, and Fe XVI obtained by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on the it Hinode spacecraft. The observations show non-thermal velocities, Doppler outflows, and intensities for loops in this active region. The observed non-thermal velocities are compared with predictions from models for Alfvén wave turbulence in the observed coronal loops. This modeling takes into account the relationship between the width of the coronal emission lines and the orientation of the coronal loops with respect to the line-of-sight direction. We find that in order to produce the observed line widths we need to introduce a random parallel-flow component in addition to the perpendicular velocity due to Alfvén waves. The observed widths are consistent with photospheric footpoint velocities in the range 0.3-1.5 km s{sup –1}. We conclude that the Alfvén wave turbulence model is a strong candidate for explaining how the observed loops are heated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

A UNIVERSAL POWER-LAW PROFILE OF PSEUDO-PHASE-SPACE DENSITY-LIKE QUANTITIES IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

We study profiles of mass density, velocity dispersion (VD), and a combination of both using ∼2000 nearly spherical and rotation-free Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies. For observational stellar mass density ρ{sub *}(r), we consider a range of dark matter (DM) distribution ρ{sub DM}(r) and VD anisotropy β(r) to investigate radial stellar VD σ{sub *r}(r) using the spherical Jeans equation. While mass and VD profiles vary appreciably depending on DM distribution and anisotropy, the pseudo-phase-space density-like combination ρ(r)/σ{sub ⋆r}{sup 3}(r) with total density ρ(r) = ρ{sub *}(r) + ρ{sub DM}(r) is nearly universal. In the optical region, the negative logarithmic slope has a mean value of (χ) ≈ 1.86-1.90 with a galaxy-to-galaxy rms scatter of ≈0.04-0.06, which is a few times smaller than that of ρ(r) profiles. The scatter of χ can be increased by invoking wildly varying anisotropies that are, however, less likely because they would produce too large a scatter of line of sight VD profiles. As an independent check of this universality, we analyze stellar orbit-based dynamical models of 15 early-type galaxies (ETGs) of the Coma cluster provided by J. Thomas. Coma ETGs, with σ{sub *r}(r) replaced by the rms velocity of stars v {sub *rms}(r) including net rotation, exhibit a similar universality with a slope of χ = 1.93 ± 0.06. Remarkably, the inferred values of χ for ETGs match well the slope ≈1.9 predicted by N-body simulations of DM halos. We argue that the inferred universal nature of ρ(r)/σ{sub ⋆r}{sup 3}(r) cannot be fully explained by equilibrium alone, implying that some astrophysical factors conspire and/or it reflects a fundamental principle in collisionless formation processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Design and Analysis of an Actively Cooled Window for a High-Power Helicon Plasma Source

The material's plasma exposure experiment (MPEX) is a steady-state, linear plasma facility proposed to provide plasma conditions that simulate the first wall and divertor of the next-step fusion devices. MPEX will use an actively cooled, high-power helicon antenna as a plasma source. The antenna is located outside of the vacuum region, and during operation, a significant percentage of the antenna power is deposited on the plasma facing surface of the antenna window. The window thus must be actively cooled so that thermal stresses do not become excessive. The design presented includes two cylindrical windows with an annular water passage in-between in order to allow active cooling. A ceramic-to-metal seal is proposed in order to produce a water-to-vacuum seal that will not outgas and produce impurities. Experimental results from an uncooled window on a short-pulse prototype experiment are modeled using finite-element (FE) results in order to correlate with the heat flux profile. The design of the actively cooled window assembly is presented with computational fluid dynamics and FE analyses to confirm that the hardware can function with a 200-kW antenna within performance limits.

Lumsdaine, Arnold↗
DOE OSTI2020

GradeIT (Road Grade Inference Tool)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed the Road Grade Inference Tool, "GradeIT". This tool is a modular Python package the leverages the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) 1/3 arc-second Digital Elevation Model (DEM), an open and free public dataset. Roadway gradient (slope) has a strong influence on vehicle energy consumption behavior and longitudinal dynamics. Therefore, any tools, models, or analyses that consider vehicle energy consumption or driving profiles is incomplete without accurate elevation and grade information. Despite the acute need for this data, it is rarely collected alongside GPS (latitude and longitude) data, and tools to post-process GPS data to append elevation and grade are difficult to come by. GradeIT satisfies this significant need in the research community. Utilization of the USGS DEM makes the underlying data available to any potential user and ensures continuous data anywhere in the continental United States. The USGS DEM is a great resource; however, in order to be useful for automotive and traffic engineering applications, significant interpolation and filtering is required to achieve an accurate representation of gradient on the roadway. GradeIT employs a two-dimensional interpolation to approximate elevation at a point on the road from the nearest nodes in the DEM. Then, GradeIT applies multiple filtering techniques to smooth the elevation profile to a realistic road topology. Finally, road grade is derived from the elevation profile and returned as the primary output.

Holden, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatially Adaptive Tunable Lighting Control System with Expanded Wellness and Energy Saving Benefits

Lighting design is becoming increasingly complex, including active dimming for energy savings and spectral tuning for human wellbeing. Modern commercial lighting control systems are already difficult to use, and maintain, and even with so-called Smart Lighting, optimizing light settings is rapidly exceeding the capabilities of direct human control, limiting the adoption of lighting control systems. The growing importance of Occupancy Centric Controls (OCC) for advanced building management systems can be applied to the development of autonomous lighting system controls needed to drive the adoption of advanced lighting controls for improved adaptive “sculpted illumination” for both greater energy savings and broader human wellbeing perspectives. This project, led by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, entitled “Spatially adaptive tunable lighting control system with expanded wellness and energy saving benefits” will develop and test an entirely new platform for automated optimized lighting design and control that requires little or no human engagement, yet contours lighting profiles automatically to minimize lighting energy use. We call this approach to lighting control “dynamic light sculpting” since the right amount of illumination is automatically delivered to occupants in real time. Since the system uses new, privacy-preserving occupant position and pose detection technologies developed by Rensselaer for broad OCC building applications, the control system will analyze how to deliver the right amount of the right type of illumination only where and when it is needed based these OCC platforms. To create these powerful autonomous lighting control platforms, the project will integrate evolving augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) tools with sophisticated lighting and interior design toolkits to create interactive lighting design and control simulators. Using the quickly growing paradigm of digital twins, these tools will integrate light fixture properties, occupancy sensor data, interior design data, and lighting specifications to accurately visualize how various design concepts interact with simulated yet realistic human activities that occur in commercial office buildings of various types. These advanced digital twin design and simulation tools will be combined with a new class of digitally-programmable LED lighting fixtures that can dynamically change the spectral content and direction of light emission. When fully integrated, the new autonomous lighting control system will take all of the guesswork out of optimizing light quality while minimizing energy consumption. Digital twin tools will simplify the design, installation, commissioning, operation, and maintenance of future energy-efficient lighting systems. It should be possible to reduce lighting energy costs from 40% to 70% with OCC based dynamic light sculpting systems. The work will be led by the Center for Lighting Enabled Systems and Applications (LESA) and the Center for Architectural Science and Ecology (CASE), both at Renssealer Polytechnic Institute; Lumileds, a global leader in the development of advanced LED systems; and HKS, a leading global architecture design firm. This interdisciplinary project team’s experience includes all of the design simulation tools, VR/AR digital twin visualization technology, advanced occupancy sensing technology, and complex control system design capabilities that will revolutionize lighting design and control technology to autonomously deliver high-quality lighting that improves human health and wellbeing while simultaneously maximizing lighting energy savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical Investigation of a Small Low-Flow Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) Turbine for Small Autonomous Unmanned Mobile Recharge Stations (CRADA Final Report)

This project will improve the hydrodynamic performance of the undershot waterwheel turbine with a flow concentrator designed by the Participant, using a computational fluid dynamics study. The influence of different result parameters including the number of blades, turbine profile, submerged depth, tip speed ratio, concentrator geometry and wave + current conditions will be assessed to maximize power performance and minimize structural loads.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗