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Long-term, sustainable solutions to radioactive waste management

Nuclear power plays a pivotal role in ensuring a scalable, affordable, and reliable low-carbon electricity supply. Along with other low-carbon energy technologies, nuclear energy is essential for reducing our reliance on fossil fuels, addressing climate change and air pollution, and achieving a sustainable economy. Whilst significant progress has been made in reducing the volume of final radioactive waste, its management remains one of the most important challenges when considering the continued use and expansion of nuclear energy. This recently published collection highlights the latest technological and scientific advances aimed to improve the safe, long-term, and sustainable management of wastes produced from nuclear power generation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Develop a Simulation Framework for Understanding Physico-Chemical Processes and Optimization of CHZ' Plastic Thermolyze Technology (CRADA Final Report)

Thermolyzer(TM) technology is a third-generation, multi-reactor, oxygen-free, low pressure, slow pyrolysis process. It has proven to be remarkably versatile in successfully processing all types of hydrocarbon waste. These include all seven types of plastics, tires, auto shredder residue, carpet, electronic waste, and composites. Working with the IACMI, Thermolyzer(TM) technology has recovered the glass and carbon fibers from wind turbine blades for reuse into new applications. Its primary output is a synthesis gas that is rich in H 2 , CH 4 , and small amounts of C 2-4 aliphatic hydrocarbons. Other components are CO and CO 2 . Three unique features set Thermolyzer(TM) apart from other pyrolysis systems: the syngas is clean enough to run in Siemens or Solar gas turbines or IC engines without fouling, clean, salable, byproducts are produced, and CO 2 emissions are lower than natural gas power plants. Research results have been obtained from an operating 7 ton/day facility. A 44 ton/day plant has successfully operated as noted above. The process works because it makes use of the recoverable embodied energy in the feedstock. Surprisingly, a pound of some plastics has the same recoverable energy content as a pound of gasoline. Thus, it is imperative to develop a process that economically converts scrap plastics (including ocean plastics) into energy and thereby conserve the non-renewable fossil fuels for future generations. The Thermolyzer(TM) technology can also be used to create liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel from hydrocarbon wastes. Because of the high hydrogen content of the synthesis gas, hydrogen can be recovered more inexpensively than the current solar or wind energy being used to electrolyze water. That hydrogen can be used for fuel cell powered vehicles or converted into ammonia for agriculture or as a hydrogen storage medium. Extension of this technology to other wastes such as tires, auto shredder residue or wood wastes would expand the circular economy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Clean Energy Deployment Baseline for the Energy Community and Low-Income Tax Credit Bonuses [Slides]

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduced, for the first time, place-based federal tax incentives for projects sited in “Energy Communities,” potentially changing the economic calculus of where projects are best sited. Storage projects can qualify for a 10-percentage-point bonus to the Investment Tax Credit (e.g., from 30% to 40%), while wind and solar projects may qualify for either the ITC bonus or a 10% bonus to the Production Tax Credit (e.g., from $\$27.5$ to $\$30.25$/MWh). Energy Communities are areas with historical ties to fossil fuel industries and above average unemployment levels (FFEU), with closed coal mines or power plants, or contaminated properties. They seek to identify locations across the US that could especially benefit from economic revitalization. This report explores how the new federal tax credit incentives are impacting clean energy deployment patterns and establishes historical baselines against which future changes can be compared. We include a few case studies of clean energy projects going specifically to areas that were recently impacted by coal power plant closures to provide concrete examples of investments in Energy Communities. However, this publication does not assess how much of the incentive benefits pass from clean energy developers to hosting communities, nor does it offer a comprehensive view of the economic effects of clean energy deployment on Energy Communities. Key highlights include: - As clean energy projects take multiple years to conceptualize and develop, it is likely too early to see shifts towards Energy Community locations either among newly built projects or those that entered interconnection queues in 2023. - Approximately 35% of onshore wind, 50% of solar, and 60% of storage capacity built in 2023 and the first half of 2024 are located in Energy Communities, making them likely eligible for bonus incentives. While these bonus incentives were not available to projects coming online before 2023, we used 2023 Energy Community definitions to classify whether past projects were built in what is now considered an Energy Community. The deployment levels for 2023-2024 are similar to recent years (2020-2022) for solar and storage but slightly lower for wind. - Clean energy capacity has surged in the interconnection queues over the last few years, with about 45-50% of both recently proposed and total queued capacity being located in Energy Communities. While the amount of capacity in Energy Communities has also grown, its relative share is either stable (solar and storage) or slightly lower (wind) among projects that entered the queue in 2023. - Clean energy projects can be built at lower costs in Energy Communities. The levelized cost of energy after incentives was on average $\$9$/MWh (24%) lower for solar projects and $\$2$/MWh (6%) lower for wind projects built in 2023, relative to projects not located in Energy Communities. Wholesale electricity values at Energy Community locations relative to the rest of the market vary by region. The average value was often higher for wind projects (-$\$3$ to $\$11$/MWh) but lower for solar projects (-$\$6$ to 0/MWh). - Distributed solar that is owned by commercial entities is eligible for the Energy Community bonus and also, potentially, a Low-Income Community bonus. Residential solar installations in qualifying Energy Communities that are third-party owned represent about 10% of the total residential market. Larger commercial and industrial solar installations in Energy Communities make up 17% of the total market in 2023. Nearly 2 GW of distributed solar was built in areas qualifying as Low-Income Communities in 2023, exceeding the available annual program cap of 700 MW. Continued tracking of these trends will be important for system planners, investors, and local communities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

EFRC 10@10: Tackling the Energy Storage Problem for Grid-Scale Solar Power

Power from the electric grid that is generated by solar panels is already less expensive in many areas than that generated by fossil fuels. But as solar power facilities expand, the clean energy movement faces a difficult problem: while such facilities can generate more power than is needed in the middle of the day when the sun is shining, they can’t power the electrical grid in the evening or overnight. Storing grid-scale power in batteries would be extremely expensive. But what if solar energy could be stored cheaply as heat, and the heat converted to electricity when needed? That potential was among the reasons why the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science funded an Energy Frontier Research Center (EFRC), the Solid-State Solar-Thermal Energy Conversion Center.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Life cycle analysis of polylactic acids from different wet waste feedstocks

Producing a valuable chemical product through diversion of wet wastes can simultaneously resolve the problems associated with increasing wastes and greenhouse gas emissions from conventional chemical production processes. In this work, we investigated the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, water, and fossil-fuel consumption for waste-derived polylactic acids (PLA) from three different waste feedstocks, namely wastewater sludge, food waste, and swine manure, using the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model. The decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based resins with the waste-derived polymer was also investigated. The results show that swine manure-to-PLA pathway was the least carbon intensive (—1.4 kgCO 2 e/kg) among the three waste-to-PLA pathways on a cradle-to-grave basis, followed by the food waste case (—1.3 kgCO 2 e/kg) and then by the wastewater sludge case (0.6 kgCO 2 e/kg). In the baseline scenario, all three waste-to-PLA pathways were less carbon intensive than both fossil-based PET and HDPE on a cradle-to-grave basis: 66% (vs. PET) and 56% (vs. HDPE), 171 and 192%, 181 and 205% reduction in GHG emissions for wastewater sludge-, food waste-, and swine manure-to-PLA pathway, respectively. For all sensitivity cases investigated, the food waste- and swine manure-to-PLA pathways were significantly less carbon intensive than their fossil-counterparts. In terms of the annual decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based PET or HDPE, the wastewater sludge- and food waste-pathway showed higher mitigation potential than the swine manure-pathway: i) 18–28 kilotons CO 2 e-reduction per year for wastewater sludge pathway; ii) 23–26 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for food waste pathway; and iii) about 5 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for swine manure pathway depending on the type of conventional resin replaced. However, given the abundant availability of the swine manure feedstocks across the United States, the decarbonization potential of swine manure-based pathway can also increase as the plant capacity or the number of plants grow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Status of wind-energy conversion

The utilization of wind energy is technically feasible as evidenced by the many past demonstrations of wind generators. The cost of energy from the wind has been high compared to fossil fuel systems. A sustained development effort is needed to obtain economical systems. The variability of the wind makes it an unreliable source on a short-term basis. However, the effects of this variability can be reduced by storage systems or connecting wind generators to fossil fuel systems, hydroelectric systems, or dispersing them throughout a large grid network. The NSF and NASA-Lewis Research Center have sponsored programs for the utilization of wind energy.

Thomas, R. L.↗

Clean Energy Technology Applications on US Mine Land: Technical Analysis

As the United States transitions toward a clean energy economy, an opportunity exists for redeveloping the more than 17,000 mine land sites located across the nation with clean energy technologies, which have a combined potential for generating more than 85 GW of clean electricity. This report provides an overview of the potential of demonstrating and deploying clean energy projects on current and former mine land. Clean energy project refers to a project that demonstrates one or more of the following technologies: solar; microgrids; geothermal; direct air capture; fossil-fueled electricity generation with carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration; energy storage, including pumped storage hydropower and compressed air energy storage; and advanced nuclear technologies. The report discusses the following technologies and their potential for creating jobs and generating tax revenue that would result in direct and indirect benefits to the local economy: Solar photovoltaics (PV) is being developed on current and former mine land in various parts of the world, including the United States. This approach is attractive because it requires limited infrastructure investment and would utilize the bare surfaces of mines and tailing ponds. Solar resource availability may be greater in the southern regions, including the Interior and Appalachian Basins and the southwestern United States. However, since some mine land sites include areas of significant change in elevation, the deployment of PV on mine land may require sophisticated planning to account for shading and irradiance, or may require regrading of the areas. PV does not create significant environmental risks and generally does not face public resistance; Geothermal systems are often spatially and genetically associated with ore deposits, and in some cases, they have been discovered while in search for epithermal mineral resources. Numerous diverse geothermal applications have been employed at mine land around the world, including power generation, mineral extraction from geothermal brines, process heating, direct use for other mining operations, and direct use for non-mining operations and subsurface energy storage, including geothermal heat pumps. Case studies highlighting these applications provide key lessons relating to identifying drivers and barriers to geothermal resource deployment and can be used to create screening tools for identifying the types and locations of mine land most amenable to utilizing geothermal resources; Carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration technologies include direct air capture (DAC) and enhanced weathering. DAC technologies include air contactors, regeneration systems, and CO 2 compression systems. Captured CO 2 can be converted to valuable feedstocks or possibly injected into abandoned subsurface mines where it would be absorbed by alkaline rock waste and mine tailings or by the porous minerals along the walls of the mine. DAC systems can be coupled with energy sources such as wind, solar, grid, or geothermal. Many DAC systems require a source of water or steam; however, some are expected to be net producers of water. Local impacts of DAC systems are expected to be low, and are related to land footprint, material disposal, and upstream impacts of energy and material production; Compressed air energy storage is an established energy storage technology in salt caverns. It has the potential for implementation in underground mines by pressurizing and storing a large amount of air using electrical compressors when excess electricity is available. When a need for discharge emerges, the air is used to spin turbines and produce the necessary volume of electricity. Abandoned or unused mine openings, including shafts, adits, access tunnels, and mined workings of any orientation, offer potential for vast amounts of compressed air energy storage if the site characteristics meet operational requirements; Pumped hydropower storage can be implemented in surface and subsurface mines. In surface mine applications, both reservoirs may be located in a mine pit or artificial reservoirs made of excavated materials. In subsurface mines, the lower reservoir may be implemented by waterproofing and flooding mine shafts and tunnels. The water is then pumped from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir during periods of low load and high production, and it is discharged through the turbines during periods of peak demand. The potential environmental damages associated with acidity of mine water or the presence of toxic chemicals incentivizes the development of closed-loop technologies, in which water circulates inside the pumped hydropower facility without being discharged into the external water basins; Advanced nuclear energy technologies include small modular reactors, which can be deployed locally to produce electricity and heat. Such units require seismic stability and a supply of cooling water, but population constraints may exist in some areas. Therefore, remote mine land could represent an optimal location for siting advanced nuclear energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Final Technical Report DE-EE0006911 Vermont Solar Pathways

Solar PV is the fastest-growing form of energy in Vermont. From 2012 to 2017, Vermont’s solar energy capacity increased almost nine times to 227 MW, a compound annual growth rate of 54%. During this time, the portion of electricity from solar grew from 0.5% to 5%. The state is one of the national leaders in net metering, community solar, and solar jobs per capita. In 2011, the Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan set a goal to have renewable energy supply 90% of the state’s total energy needs (including electricity, heating and cooling, and transportation) by 2050. The Department of Public Service completed a Total Energy Study to examine the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of various paths to the 90% goal and related emissions goals. The General Assembly created a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) that includes credit for projects—such as electric vehicles and modern wood heating—that switch end uses away from fossil fuel, making the RPS essentially a total energy portfolio standard. Achieving the state’s energy goals will require major contributions from distributed resources and the development of supporting infrastructure such as energy storage, electric vehicle charging stations, and upgraded distribution systems. The Vermont Solar Pathways project used scenario modeling and stakeholder engagement to create a broadly supported plan to get 20% of the state’s electricity from solar by 2025. Scenario modeling provided numbers and graphs for examining issues, costs, and benefits, and spurred discussions at the 11 stakeholder meetings held over the course of the project. Stakeholders provided feedback to improve the model and made suggestions for variations on the scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Methanol Synthesis Plant

Efforts continue to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the United States (U.S.) economy. Industrial processes such as synfuel synthesis and high value commodity chemicals rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels, which power and feed their operations. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a widely used process for producing methanol. In this process, methane (CH 4 ) from natural gas (NG) reacts with steam (H 2 O) over a catalyst at high temperatures (700°1,000°C) to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The syngas is then converted into methanol (CH 3 OH) through a second catalytic reaction. This method is known for being an efficient and commonly employed pathway for industrial methanol production. The high-temperature heat needed for SMR, which is currently used in the natural-gas-to-methanol process, cannot be supplied by small modular nuclear reactor (SMNR) direct heating; the temperatures required for the SMR process exceed those of the main steam produced by near-market high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs). For the conventional methanol process, this leaves possible nuclear-integration opportunities that include: (1) blending nuclear hydrogen into the SMR NG fuel, or (2) assessing alternative synthesis routes leveraging nuclear capabilities and steam electrolysis outputs. In the reference methanol plant, SMR provides the methanol-synthesis reactor with H 2 and co. In Case (2), the state-of-the-art reverse water gas shift (RWGS) pathway achieves the same, sourcing carbon from an industrial CO 2 source.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Methanol Synthesis Plant

Efforts continue to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the United States (U.S.) economy. Industrial processes such as synfuel synthesis and high value commodity chemicals rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels, which power and feed their operations. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a widely used process for producing methanol. In this process, methane (CH 4 ) from natural gas (NG) reacts with steam (H 2 O) over a catalyst at high temperatures (700-1,000°C) to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The syngas is then converted into methanol (CH 3 OH) through a second catalytic reaction. This method is known for being an efficient and commonly employed pathway for industrial methanol production. The high-temperature heat needed for SMR, which is currently used in the natural-gas-to-methanol process, cannot be supplied by small modular nuclear reactor (SMNR) direct heating; the temperatures required for the SMR process exceed those of the main steam produced by near-market high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs). For the conventional methanol process, this leaves possible nuclear-integration opportunities that include: (1) blending nuclear hydrogen into the SMR NG fuel, or (2) assessing alternative synthesis routes leveraging nuclear capabilities and steam electrolysis outputs. In the reference methanol plant, SMR provides the methanol-synthesis reactor with H 2 and co. In Case (2), the state-of-the-art reverse water gas shift (RWGS) pathway achieves the same, sourcing carbon from an industrial CO 2 source.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Novel Non-Aqueous CO 2 Solvents and Capture Process with Substantially Reduced Energy Penalties (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The overall objective of this 3 year project was to rapidly advance the development a family of promising NAS formulations from proof-of-concept testing through to testing in a representative process arrangement to determine the potential for this novel solvent-based process to substantially reduce (i.e., >40%) the energy demand and cost of CO 2 capture from fossil fuel-fired electricity generating units. The goal of this project was to thoroughly characterize the NASs and evaluate their performance in a small process unit to understand their potential to lower the energy demand of a CO 2 capture process and demonstrate feasibility. Detailed characterization of the thermodynamic properties of the NASs revealed large working capacities under low regeneration temperatures (i.e., <100°C) and lower heats of absorption than conventional aqueous amine solvents. The thermal energy demand for these promising NAS formulations was estimated to be approximately 40% less than conventional aqueous-amine solvents (2.06-2.15 GJt / tonne CO 2 vs 3.6 GJt / tonne CO 2 ).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A comprehensive review on regeneration strategies for direct air capture

Direct air capture (DAC), which removes CO 2 directly from ambient air, is a critical negative emission technology for mitigating global climate change. Efficiency and the source of energy are crucial considerations for DAC to enable negative emissions. Substantial technological progress has been made in DAC technologies, and promising opportunities exist for commercial-scale deployments. However, DAC technologies require high regeneration energy to release CO 2 from sorbents. Various approaches have been tested and optimized for different DAC systems. This review demonstrates that the work equivalent regeneration energy demand (supported by either the electric grid or fossil fuel combustion) ranges from 0.5–18.75 GJ/t-CO 2 for solid sorbent DAC systems and 0.62–17.28 GJ/t-CO 2 for liquid solvent DAC systems. The regeneration process is the energy-demanding process in DAC that is a key step for efficient operation. Potential methods to lower the regeneration energy demand include microwave, ultrasound, magnetic particle heating, and electric swing. Although the potential methods to date are still at the lab scale, significant work is being done to optimize DAC system processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A study of some economic factors relating to the development and implementation of a satellite power system

Areas are examined relating to the design, development and implementation of a satellite power system (SPS): an analysis of the effect of energy R&D programs in general and SPS in particular on optimal fossil fuel consumption patterns, a study of alternative uses of SPS technologies, and a study of the electric power market penetration potential for SPS. It is shown that a credible program of R&D on long-range energy alternatives leads to lower optimal prices for fossil fuels, resulting in large short-term benefits accruing to the specific program elements. Several alternative uses of SPS technologies were identified; however the markets for these technologies are generally quite diffuse and difficult to assess. The notable exception is solar array technology which has, potentially, a very large non-SPS market. It is shown that the market for SPS units derives from two components of demand: the demand created by growth in the electrical energy demand which leads to an increased demand for baseload generating capacity, and a demand created by the need to replace retiring capacity.

Source record↗

Risk Analysis for Remote Operation of Microreactors

Microreactors are a subset of advanced nuclear reactors that can be factory fabricated, transportable, and self-regulating. They have the potential to be used in microgrids, rural and remote areas, or emergency response applications, replacing fossil fuel sources like diesel generators and enabling sustainable energy generation. In order to make microreactor operation cost-effective, it is likely that remote communications will be needed to reduce the number of personnel required to be on site. While remote operation of energy generation and other industrial control systems is common in other industries, it is not yet adopted in the nuclear community and has many perceived and actual risks. In this paper, the severity of the risks introduced by remote operations for microreactors are explored. The primary changes in the operations involve the addition of a remote communications network and a certification system for data and controls. These changes lend themselves to considerations of cyber risks, whether unintentional or adversarial, but the assessment considers not just cyber risks introduced, but also how physical and human factors-based risks will impact the remote operations system and change the overall risk profile. This initial assessment indicates that there are standard cyber and mitigation measures that can be put in place so the risk of doing remote operations does not dramatically increase compared to local operations. This evaluation is a critical step in the process of evaluating if remote operations of microreactors is a suitable solution to meet future sustainable grid needs

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Bioenergy and Climate Change in Ukraine: How climate can impact the sustainability of bioenergy production

The Russian invasion has exacerbated Ukraine’s energy security issues, prompting a shift toward diversifying energy supply sources. Additionally, strategic documents aim to align Ukraine’s energy system with EU climate requirements, focusing on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and advancing decarbonization efforts. This report focuses on the expansion of bioenergy as an alternative source of energy in Ukraine. Current assessments suggest that Ukraine has substantial bioenergy potential, primarily from agricultural residues and energy crops. However, the challenges posed by climate change and the ongoing war might impact the outcome of these projections. This report highlights the importance of integrating climate factors into energy modeling using tools like the integrated assessment models to provide a comprehensive understanding of Ukraine’s bioenergy potential under various climate scenarios. It also emphasizes the need for climate-smart agriculture and forestry practices to mitigate risks, enhance energy efficiency, and support resilient crop supplies. Recommendations for stakeholders include diversification of the energy supply sources, developing adaptation strategies, diversifying bioenergy feedstocks, and ensuring robust decision-making to navigate the impacts of climate change on Ukraine’s energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Plutonium: Advancing our Understanding to Support Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles

With Global energy needs increasing, real energy solutions to meet demands now, are needed. Fossil fuels are not an ideal candidate to meet these needs because of their negative impact on the environment. Renewables such as wind and solar have huge potential, but still need major technological advancements (particularly in the area of battery storage) before they can effectively meet growing world needs. The best option for meeting large energy needs without a large carbon footprint is nuclear energy. Of course, nuclear energy can face a fair amount of opposition and concern. However, through modern engineering and science many of these concerns can now be addressed. Many safety concerns can be met by engineering advancements, but perhaps the biggest area of concern is what to do with the used nuclear fuel after it is removed from the reactor. Currently the United States (and several other countries) utilize an open fuel cycle, meaning fuel is only used once and then discarded. It should be noted that fuel coming out of a reactor has utilized approximately 1% of the total energy that could be produced by the uranium in the fuel rod. The answer here is to close the fuel cycle and recycle the nuclear materials. By reprocessing used nuclear fuel, all the U can be repurposed without requiring disposal. The various fission products can be removed and either discarded (hugely reduced waste volume) or more reasonably, utilized in specialty reactors to make more energy or needed research/medical isotopes. While reprocessing technology is currently advanced enough to meet energy needs, completing research to improve and better understand these techniques is still needed. Better understanding behavior of fission products is one area of important research. Despite it being discovered over 75 years ago, plutonium is still an exciting element to study because of the complex solution chemistry it exhibits. In aqueous solutions Pu can exist simultaneously in multiple oxidation states, including 3+, 4+, and 6+. It also readily forms a variety of metal-ligand complexes depending on solution pH and available ligands. Understanding of the behavior of Pu in solution remains an important area of research today, with relevance to developing sustainable nuclear fuel cycles, minimizing its impact on the environment, and detecting and preventing the spread of nuclear weapons technology.

Lines, Amanda M.↗

Climate models project increasing precipitation in the US Southwest in 2024–2100

We analyzed the measured precipitation in the southwestern US and found that, from 1900 to 2024, precipitation decreased at an average rate of − 1.2 cm per year per 100 years. The most significant precipitation decreases occurred in the three-month period from February to April. At the same time, precipitation during the southwestern monsoon season (July, August, and September) remained relatively stable. The ensemble mean of all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models, along with the regression model incorporating anthropogenic aerosol (AER) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as predictors, projects precipitation to increase from 2024 to 2100. This projected precipitation increase relies on the anticipated decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, which is associated with the transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable and nuclear energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗