Distance Measures for Competitive Learning-based Anomaly Detection in Industrial Control Systems.
Abstract not provided.
Cole, Robert G.↗
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Earth Sciences↗
Bootstrapping Multi-Agent Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) System Integration Using Ground-Based Assets: Lessons Learned
The highly dynamic nature of UAVs imposes significant challenges when conducting initial testing ranging from safety risks posed by high-capacity lithium batteries and spinning propellers to rigorous timing demands on controllers and the consequences of failures mid-air. Flight testing of a single vehicle is time and labor intensive due to these challenges and more, and the complexity increases exponentially with the number of vehicles. While simulations and hardware-in-the-loop bench testing can provide adequate environments for preliminary validation, differences in system deployment architecture, software interfaces, and hardware infrastructure between simulation and a fleet of real UAVs create a sizable gap that must be navigated carefully during system integration. In support of the Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) project, which had the goal of establishing a basis of certification of trust and trustworthiness in multi-agent autonomous systems, this gap was tackled from two directions. First, a novel mixed-reality simulation environment was engineered to blur the transition from simulation to flight hardware. Second, a fleet of Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) was developed as a test and evaluation platform that more closely represented the final aerial fleet while eliminating many of the risks associated with air vehicles. This paper delves into the second element, analyzing the efficacy of the USV platform in performing system integration testing for the UAV system. In this paper we present the USV fleet and its role in reducing the aforementioned gaps in deployment architecture, software interfaces, and hardware infrastructure when moving from simulation to flight. An overview of the hardware and software onboard the vehicles will be provided along with supporting infrastructure. The system integration process will be documented including results in supporting both the overarching design reference mission (DRM) of ATTRACTOR and individual research efforts conducted during the project. Finally, we will discuss some of the practical lessons learned regarding the testing, deployment, and operation of multi-agent autonomous systems.
Matthew P Vaughan↗
Machine Learning for Scalable and Optimal Load Shedding Under Power System Contingency
Prompt and effective corrective actions in response to unexpected contingencies are crucial for improving power system resilience and preventing cascading blackouts. The optimal load shedding (OLS) accounting for network limits has the potential to address the diverse system-wide impacts of contingency scenarios as compared to traditional local schemes. However, due to the fast cascading propagation of initial contingencies, real-time OLS solutions are challenging to attain in large systems with high computation and communication needs. In this paper, we propose a decentralized design that leverages offline training of a neural network (NN) model for individual load centers to autonomously construct the OLS solutions from locally available measurements. Our learning-for-OLS approach can greatly reduce the computation and communication needs during online emergency responses, thus preventing the cascading propagation of contingencies for enhanced power grid resilience. Numerical studies on both the IEEE 118-bus system and a synthetic Texas 2000-bus system have demonstrated the efficiency and effectiveness of our scalable OLS learning design for timely power system emergency operations.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago
Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.
Energy Use Intensity↗
Cognitive Anti-Jamming Satellite-To-Ground Communications on NASA's SCaN Testbed
Machine learning aided cognitive anti-jamming communications is designed, developed and demonstrated on a live satellite-to-ground link. A wideband autonomous cognitive radio (WACR) is designed and implemented as a hardware-in-the- loop (HITL) prototype. The cognitive engine (CE) of the WACR is implemented on a PC while the software-defined radio (SDR) platform utilized two different radios for spectrum sensing and actual communications. The cognitive engine performs spectrum knowledge acquisition over the complete spectrum range available for the SATCOM system operation and learns an anti-jamming communications protocol to avoid both intentional jammers and inadvertent interferers using reinforcement learning. When the current satellite-to-ground link is jammed, the cognitive engine of the ground receiver directs the satellite transmitter to switch to a new channel that is predicted to be jammer-free for the longest possible duration. The end-to-end, closed-loop system was tested on the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed on the International Space Station (ISS). The experimental results demonstrated the feasibility of satellite-to-ground cognitive anti-jamming communications along with excellent anti-jamming capability of machine learning aided cognitive protocols against several different types of jammers.
Jayaweera, Sudharman K.↗
Cognitive Anti-jamming Satellite-to-Ground Communications on NASA's SCaN Testbed
Machine learning aided cognitive anti-jamming communications is designed, developed and demonstrated on an experimental satellite-to-ground link. A wideband autonomous cognitive radio (WACR) is designed and implemented as a hardware-in the-loop (HITL) prototype. The cognitive engine (CE) of the WACR is implemented on a PC while the software-defined radio (SDR) platform utilized two different radios for spectrum sensing and actual communications. The cognitive engine performs spectrum knowledge acquisition over the complete spectrum range available for the SATCOM system operation and learns an anti-jamming communications protocol to avoid both intentional jammers and inadvertent interferers using reinforcement learning. When the current satellite-to-ground link is jammed, the cognitive engine of the ground receiver directs the satellite transmitter to switch to a new channel that is predicted to be jammer-free for the longest possible duration. The end-to-end, closed-loop system was tested with the NASA's Space Communications and Networking (SCaN) testbed on the International Space Station (ISS). The experimental results demonstrated the feasibility of satellite-to-ground cognitive anti-jamming communications along with excellent anti-jamming capability of machine-learning aided cognitive protocols against several different types of jammers.
Jayaweera, Sudharman K.↗
Neural networks as a control methodology
While conventional computers must be programmed in a logical fashion by a person who thoroughly understands the task to be performed, the motivation behind neural networks is to develop machines which can train themselves to perform tasks, using available information about desired system behavior and learning from experience. There are three goals of this fellowship program: (1) to evaluate various neural net methods and generate computer software to implement those deemed most promising on a personal computer equipped with Matlab; (2) to evaluate methods currently in the professional literature for system control using neural nets to choose those most applicable to control of flexible structures; and (3) to apply the control strategies chosen in (2) to a computer simulation of a test article, the Control Structures Interaction Suitcase Demonstrator, which is a portable system consisting of a small flexible beam driven by a torque motor and mounted on springs tuned to the first flexible mode of the beam. Results of each are discussed.
Mccullough, Claire L.↗
Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants
Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Machine-learning for designing nanoarchitectured materials by dealloying
Machine learning-augmented materials design is an emerging method for rapidly developing new materials. It is especially useful for designing new nanoarchitectured materials, whose design parameter space is often large and complex. Metal-agent dealloying, a materials design method for fabricating nanoporous or nanocomposite from a wide range of elements, has attracted significant interest. Here, a machine learning approach is introduced to explore metal-agent dealloying, leading to the prediction of 132 plausible ternary dealloying systems. A machine learning-augmented framework is tested, including predicting dealloying systems and characterizing combinatorial thin films via automated and autonomous machine learning-driven synchrotron techniques. This work demonstrates the potential to utilize machine learning-augmented methods for creating nanoarchitectured thin films.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning
Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Assessing Machine Learning as a Tool to Explain Variance in Deployed Photovoltaic (PV) System Degradation
Degradation remains a large uncertainty in forecasting production for PV plants, creating significant risk for developers and financiers. This study aims to quantify the distribution and drivers of degradation across 10,000 PV systems deployed for distributed or utility generation by training a machine learning model to predict year-over-year degradation rates from metadata characteristics. A combination of K-Means clustering and random forest regressor were found to associate multiple metadata features as potential drivers of degradation, including module characteristics, system design, and climate features. From this, it is inferred that if machine learning is able to find complex patterns between metadata features and system performance loss, such methods can be employed to help developers and financiers make data-informed decisions when estimating long-term energy production forecasts in financial models.
Dunn, Jimmy C.↗
Titan on the Red (advanced AI / ML system) [Slides]
Born out of a need to make LANL Weapons Program archival material available to scientists and engineers. Material is the end result of decades of consolidation of mini-libraries and mini archives at LANL. Latest consolidation brought together LANL’s digital archives and physical archives. This houses over 75 years of nuclear weapons research, designs, procedures, videos, photos, and other reports. For the Titan on the Red machine learning project, the system must be able to automatically extract metadata from digitized documents, perform natural-language search, enforce security classification and NTK protocols, be expandable to ingest various data stores (Online Vault, PDMLink, shared drives, SharePoint, etc.), and utilize commercial, public domain, and LANL ontologies.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Utilization of Data Augmentation Techniques in Automated Inspection Systems for Defect Detection in Metals With Limited Data
Accurate identification of defects on metal surfaces is of great interest to many industry sectors, such as the automotive and aerospace industries. In contrast to conventional manual inspection techniques, recent automated inspection systems employ deep learning models trained to detect defects rapidly and precisely. The development of these models often requires a substantial image dataset to acquire adequate knowledge of defect features and enhance their predictive accuracy. When data is limited, augmentation techniques are often used to improve the precision and accuracy of defect detection systems. This study examined the prediction performance of two object detection models, namely Faster Region‐based Convolutional Neural Network (Faster R‐CNN) and You Only Look Once version 8 (YOLOv8), to identify dent defects in limited images of cast iron cylinder head surfaces. The original image set contains 46 images with 563 dents. To overcome limited data availability, common image augmentation techniques along with a copy‐paste method were applied. Results show that standard augmentation improved YOLOv8 accuracy by 8.00% and average precision (AP) by 3.00%. On the other hand, the copy‐paste technique achieved a 20.00% increase in accuracy and a 1% increase in AP with just 200 synthetic dents. Furthermore, these results provide support for using the copy‐paste augmentation strategy to enhance defect detection performance, with a limited dataset, contributing to more accurate defect identification in remanufacturing processes.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems
The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.
Zhao, Xingang↗
Automated Ground Umbilical Systems (AGUS) Project
All space vehicles require ground umbilical systems for servicing. Servicing requirements can include, but are not limited to, electrical power and control, propellant loading and venting, pneumatic system supply, hazard gas detection and purging as well as systems checkout capabilities. Of the various types of umbilicals, all require several common subsystems. These typically include an alignment system, mating and locking system, fluid connectors, electrical connectors and control !checkout systems. These systems have been designed to various levels of detail based on the needs for manual and/or automation requirements. The Automated Ground Umbilical Systems (AGUS) project is a multi-phase initiative to develop design performance requirements and concepts for launch system umbilicals. The automation aspect minimizes operational time and labor in ground umbilical processing while maintaining reliability. This current phase of the project reviews the design, development, testing and operations of ground umbilicals built for the Saturn, Shuttle, X-33 and Atlas V programs. Based on the design and operations lessons learned from these systems, umbilicals can be optimized for specific applications. The product of this study is a document containing details of existing systems and requirements for future automated umbilical systems with emphasis on design-for-operations (DFO).
Gosselin, Armand M.↗
ARM-IRL: Adaptive Resilience Metric Quantification Using Inverse Reinforcement Learning
The resilience of safety-critical systems is gaining importance due to the rise in cyber and physical threats, especially within critical infrastructure. Traditional static resilience metrics may not capture dynamic system states, leading to inaccurate assessments and ineffective responses to cyber threats. This work aims to develop a data-driven, adaptive method for resilience metric learning. We propose a data-driven approach using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to learn a single, adaptive resilience metric. The method infers a reward function from expert control actions. Unlike previous approaches using static weights or fuzzy logic, this work applies adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL), training a generator and discriminator in parallel to learn the reward structure and derive an optimal policy. The proposed approach is evaluated on multiple scenarios: optimal communication network rerouting, power distribution network reconfiguration, and cyber–physical restoration of critical loads using the IEEE 123-bus system. The adaptive, learned resilience metric enables faster critical load restoration in comparison to conventional RL approaches.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Bridging Multiscale Processes in Earth System Models with Physics-Guided Hierarchical Machine Learning
Focal Area(s): The focal area of this whitepaper is, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection).” The ideas and frameworks described herein are deemed site agnostic. As a use case, this group will initially focus on the coupling between land processes, surface/subsurface hydrological processes, coastal processes, and human activities in the U.S. Gulf states.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗