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DOE OSTI2016

Interference of interchromophoric energy-transfer pathways in π-conjugated macrocycles

The interchromophoric energy-transfer pathways between weakly coupled units in a π-conjugated phenylene–ethynylene macrocycle and its half-ring analogue have been investigated using the nonadiabatic excited-state molecular dynamics approach. To track the flow of electronic transition density between macrocycle units, we formulate a transition density flux analysis adapted from the statistical minimum flow method previously developed to investigate vibrational energy flow. Following photoexcitation, transition density is primarily delocalized on two chromophore units and the system undergoes ultrafast energy transfer, creating a localized excited state on a single unit. In the macrocycle, distinct chromophore units donate transition density to a single acceptor unit but do not interchange transition density among each other. We find that energy transfer in the macrocycle is slower than in the corresponding half ring because of the presence of multiple interfering energy-transfer pathways. Finally, simulation results are validated by modeling the fluorescence anisotropy decay.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Improving Precipitation Estimation Using Convolutional Neural Network

Precipitation process is generally considered to be poorly represented in numerical weather/climate models. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods, which relate precipitation with model resolved dynamics, often provide more accurate precipitation estimates compared to model's raw precipitation products. Herein we introduce the convolutional neural network model to foster this aspect of SD for daily precipitation prediction. Specifically, we restrict the predictors to the variables that are directly resolved by discretizing the atmospheric dynamics equations. In this sense, our model works as an alternative to the existing precipitation-related parameterization schemes for numerical precipitation estimation. We train the model to learn precipitation-related dynamical features from the surrounding dynamical fields by optimizing a hierarchical set of spatial convolution kernels. We test the model at 14 geogrid points across the contiguous United States. Results show that provided with enough data, precipitation estimates from the convolutional neural network model outperform the reanalysis precipitation products, as well as SD products using linear regression, nearest neighbor, random forest, or fully connected deep neural network. Evaluation for the test set suggests that the improvements can be seamlessly transferred to numerical weather modeling for improving precipitation prediction. Based on the default network, we examine the impact of the network architectures on model performance. Also, we offer simple visualization and analyzing approaches to interpret the models and their results. Our study contributes to the following two aspects: First, we offer a novel approach to enhance numerical precipitation estimation; second, the proposed model provides important implications for improving precipitation-related parameterization schemes using a data-driven approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic graphical model foundation for enabling predictive digital twins at scale

A unifying mathematical formulation is needed to move from one-off digital twins built through custom implementations to robust digital twin implementations at scale. This work proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a formal mathematical representation of a digital twin and its associated physical asset. We create an abstraction of the asset–twin system as a set of coupled dynamical systems, evolving over time through their respective state spaces and interacting via observed data and control inputs. The formal definition of this coupled system as a probabilistic graphical model enables us to draw upon well-established theory and methods from Bayesian statistics, dynamical systems and control theory. The declarative and general nature of the proposed digital twin model make it rigorous yet flexible, enabling its application at scale in a diverse range of application areas. Here, we demonstrate how the model is instantiated to enable a structural digital twin of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The digital twin is calibrated using experimental data from a physical UAV asset. Its use in dynamic decision-making is then illustrated in a synthetic example where the UAV undergoes an in-flight damage event and the digital twin is dynamically updated using sensor data. The graphical model foundation ensures that the digital twin calibration and updating process is principled, unified and able to scale to an entire fleet of digital twins.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Raman spectrum and polarizability of liquid water from deep neural networks

We introduce a scheme based on machine learning and deep neural networks to model the environmental dependence of the electronic polarizability in insulating materials. Application to liquid water shows that training the network with a relatively small number of molecular configurations is sufficient to predict the polarizability of arbitrary liquid configurations in close agreement with ab initio density functional theory calculations. In combination with a neural network representation of the interatomic potential energy surface, the scheme allows us to calculate the Raman spectra along 2-nanosecond classical trajectories at different temperatures for H 2 O and D 2 O. The vast gains in efficiency provided by the machine learning approach enable longer trajectories and larger system sizes relative to ab initio methods, reducing the statistical error and improving the resolution of the low-frequency Raman spectra. Decomposing the spectra into intramolecular and intermolecular contributions elucidates the mechanisms behind the temperature dependence of the low-frequency and stretch modes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2014

Bayesian analysis for kaon photoproduction

We have investigated contribution of the nucleon resonances in the kaon photoproduction process by using an established statistical decision making method, i.e. the Bayesian method. This method does not only evaluate the model over its entire parameter space, but also takes the prior information and experimental data into account. The result indicates that certain resonances have larger probabilities to contribute to the process.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Peculiar velocities in redshift space: formalism, N-body simulations and perturbation theory

Direct measurements of peculiar velocities of galaxies and clusters of galaxies can in principle provide explicit information on the three dimensional mass distribution, but this information is modulated by the fact that velocity field is sampled at galaxy positions, and is thus probing galaxy momentum. We derive expressions for the cross power spectrum between the density and momentum field and the auto spectrum of the momentum field in redshift space, by extending the distribution function method to these statistics. The resulting momentum cross and auto power spectra in redshift space are expressed as infinite sums over velocity moment correlators in real space, as is the case for the density power spectrum in redshift space. We compute each correlator using Eulerian perturbation theory (PT) and halo biasing model and compare the resulting redshift-space velocity statistics to those measured from N-body simulations for both dark matter and halos. We find that in redshift space linear theory predictions for the density-momentum cross power spectrum as well as for the momentum auto spectrum fail to predict the N-body results at very large scales. On the other hand, our nonlinear PT prediction for these velocity statistics, together with real-space power spectrum for dark matter from simulations, improves the accuracy for both dark matter and halos. We also present the same analysis in configuration space, computing the redshift-space pairwise mean infall velocities and velocity correlation function and compare to nonlinear PT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A study on the statistical significance of mutual information between morphology of a galaxy and its large-scale environment

ABSTRACT A non-zero mutual information between morphology of a galaxy and its large-scale environment is known to exist in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) upto a few tens of Mpc. It is important to test the statistical significance of these mutual information if any. We propose three different methods to test the statistical significance of these non-zero mutual information and apply them to SDSS and Millennium run simulation. We randomize the morphological information of SDSS galaxies without affecting their spatial distribution and compare the mutual information in the original and randomized data sets. We also divide the galaxy distribution into smaller subcubes and randomly shuffle them many times keeping the morphological information of galaxies intact. We compare the mutual information in the original SDSS data and its shuffled realizations for different shuffling lengths. Using a t-test, we find that a small but statistically significant (at $99.9{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level) mutual information between morphology and environment exists upto the entire length-scale probed. We also conduct another experiment using mock data sets from a semi-analytic galaxy catalogue where we assign morphology to galaxies in a controlled manner based on the density at their locations. The experiment clearly demonstrates that mutual information can effectively capture the physical correlations between morphology and environment. Our analysis suggests that physical association between morphology and environment may extend to much larger length-scales than currently believed, and the information theoretic framework presented here can serve as a sensitive and useful probe of the assembly bias and large-scale environmental dependence of galaxy properties.

Sarkar, Suman↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying correlated truncation errors in effective field theory

Effective field theories (EFTs) organize the description of complex systems into an infinite sequence of decreasing importance. Predictions are made with a finite number of terms, which induces a truncation error that is often left unquantified. Here, we formalize the notion of EFT convergence and propose a Bayesian truncation error model for predictions that are correlated across the independent variables, e.g., energy or scattering angle. Central to our approach are Gaussian processes that encode both the naturalness and correlation structure of EFT coefficients. Our use of Gaussian processes permits efficient and accurate assessment of credible intervals, allows EFT fits to easily include correlated theory errors, and provides analytic posteriors for physical EFT-related quantities such as the expansion parameter. Furthermore, we demonstrate that model-checking diagnostics—applied to the case of multiple curves—are powerful tools for EFT validation. As an example, we assess a set of nucleon-nucleon scattering observables in chiral EFT. In an effort to be self-contained, appendices include thorough derivations of our statistical results. Our methods are packaged in Python code, called gsum, that is available for download on GitHub.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of the Ne 18 ( α , p ) Na 21 reaction with the ANASEN active-target detector system at E c . m . = 2.5 – 4 MeV

The 18 Ne(α,p) 21 Na reaction plays a significant role in Type-I X-ray bursts. It is a major path in the breakout from the hot-CNO cycles to the synthesis of heavier elements in the αp- and rp-processes. An experiment to determine the cross section of this reaction was performed with the ANASEN active-target detector system, determining the cross section at energies between 2.5 and 4 MeV in the center-of-mass frame. The measured cross sections for reactions populating the ground state in 21 Na are consistent with results obtained from the time-inverse reaction, but significantly lower than the previously published experimental data of direct measurements. The total cross sections are also compared with those derived from indirect methods and statistical-model calculations. Furthermore, this experiment establishes a new experimental data set on the excitation function of the 18 Ne(α,p) 21 Na reaction, revealing the significance of the excited states' contributions to the total reaction cross section and allowing us to separate the contribution of the (α,2p) reaction. The impact of the measured cross section on thermal reaction rates is discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decay spectroscopy of 160 Eu: Quasiparticle configurations of excited states and structure of K π = 4 + bandheads in 160 Gd

Background: Detailed spectroscopy of neutron-rich, heavy, deformed nuclei is of broad interest for nuclear astrophysics and nuclear structure. Nuclei in the r-process path and following freeze-out region impact the resulting r-process abundance distribution, and the structure of nuclei midshell in both proton and neutron number helps to understand the evolution of subshell gaps and large deformation in these nuclei. Purpose: We aim to improve the understanding of the nuclear structure of 160 Gd, specifically the K π = 4 + bands, as well as study the β decay of 160 Eu into 160 Gd. Methods: High-statistics decay spectroscopy of 160 Gd resulting from the β-decay of 160 Eu was collected using the GRIFFIN spectrometer at the TRIUMF-ISAC facility. Results: Two new excited states and ten new transitions were observed in 160 Gd. The β-decaying half-lives of the low- and high-spin isomers in 160 Eu were determined, and the low-spin state's half-life was measured to be t 1/2 = 26.0 (8) s, ≈ 16% shorter than previous measurements. Lifetimes of the two K π = 4 + bandheads in 160 Gd were measured for the first time, as well as γ – γ angular correlations and mixing ratios of intense transitions out of those bandheads. Conclusions: Lifetimes and mixing ratios suggest that the hexadecapole phonon model of the K π = 4 + bandheads in 160 Gd is preferred over a simple two-state strong mixing scenario, although further theoretical calculations are needed to fully understand these states. Additionally, the 1999.0-keV state in 160 Gd heavily populated in β decay is shown to have positive parity, which raises questions regarding the structure of the high-spin β-decaying state in 160 Eu.

150 ≤ A ≤ 189↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino-induced charged-current coherent pion production for constraining the muon neutrino flux at DUNE

We study neutrino-induced charged-current coherent pion production ( ν μ CC - Coh π ) as a tool for constraining the neutrino flux at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The neutrino energy and flavor in the process can be directly reconstructed from the outgoing particles, making it especially useful to specifically constrain the muon neutrino component of the total flux. The cross section of this process can be obtained using the Adler relation with the π -Ar elastic scattering cross section taken either from external data or, as we explore, from a simultaneous measurement in the DUNE near detector. We develop a procedure that leverages ν μ CC - Coh π events to fit for the neutrino flux while simultaneously accounting for relevant effects in the cross section. We project that this method has the statistical power to constrain the uncertainty on the normalization of the flux at its peak to a few percent. This study demonstrates the potential utility of a ν μ CC - Coh π flux constraint, though further work will be needed to determine the range of validity and precision of the Adler relation upon which it relies, as well as to measure the π -Ar elastic scattering cross section to the requisite precision. We discuss the experimental and phenomenological developments necessary to unlock the ν μ CC - Coh π process as a “standard candle” for neutrino experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Biosequence-based Approach to Software Characterization

For many applications, it is desirable to have some process for recognizing when software binaries are closely related without relying on them to be identical or have identical segments. Some examples include monitoring utilization of high performance computing centers or service clouds, detecting freeware in licensed code, and enforcing application whitelists. But doing so in a dynamic environment is a nontrivial task because most approaches to software similarity require extensive and time-consuming analysis of a binary, or they fail to recognize executables that are similar but nonidentical. Presented herein is a novel biosequence-based method for quantifying similarity of executable binaries. Using this method, it is shown in an example application on large-scale multi-author codes that 1) the biosequence-based method has a statistical performance in recognizing and distinguishing between a collection of real-world high performance computing applications better than 90% of ideal; and 2) an example of using family tree analysis to tune identification for a code subfamily can achieve better than 99% of ideal performance.

cyber security↗

DOE OSTI2022

AN ESTIMATE OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL MECHANICAL LOADS IN THE GENERAL 30 CM PACKAGE DROP SCENARIO

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is performing research to determine the mechanical loading conditions applied to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) during normal conditions of transport to inform mechanical tests of SNF and close an important knowledge gap related to the practical disposition of SNF in the US. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have completed an extensive finite element study to characterize and estimate the potential mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm drop of an SNF transportation package. This modeling study is validated with test data collected by the SFWST program during a physical test campaign that included one-third scale package drop tests and full-scale single fuel assembly drop tests. The test campaign was led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and included international collaboration with Equipos Nucleares S.A, S.M.E (ENSA) and Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM). The key contribution of the modeling study is to go beyond the limitations of the limited number of physical tests to estimate the impact response to variations in impact angle, initial gap conditions, fuel assembly design, burnup and other parameters that affect the mechanical loads. The methodology of this study included a classic parametric study to calculate the impact response of highly detailed fuel assemblies over many combinations of parameters. Models of a 17x17 pressurized water reactor fuel assembly and a generic 10x10 boiling water reactor fuel assembly were both used in this study to cover the major fuel assembly types in the US inventory. Over 2,000 impact responses were calculated. The results of the parametric study were evaluated using traditional methods and basic statistics. The results were also used to construct a damage model using multiple nonlinear regression techniques to predict the mechanical loads over the full range of all input parameters. The damage model was found to work very well for all impact angle cases where the cask came to rest on its side. It was concluded that end drop cases where the cask remained vertical (instead of tipping over onto its side) were not sufficiently characterized by the current set of parametric study cases to include in the damage model, but it was not a priority to fully investigate that range because the highest mechanical loads were observed in the broader range of side impact cases. This modeling work provides sufficient insight into the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm package drop that, when considered along with the physical test data collected by the SNL-led team, the SFSWT program can consider the knowledge gap closed.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multi-scale theory-assisted nano-engineering of plasmonic-organic hybrid electro-optic device performance

Multi-scale (correlated quantum and statistical mechanics) modeling methods have been advanced and employed to guide the improvement of organic electro-optic (OEO) materials, including by analyzing electric field poling induced electro-optic activity in nanoscopic plasmonic-organic hybrid (POH) waveguide devices. The analysis of in-device electro-optic activity emphasizes the importance of considering both the details of intermolecular interactions within organic electro-optic materials and interactions at interfaces between OEO materials and device architectures. Dramatic improvement in electro-optic device performance--including voltage-length performance, bandwidth, energy efficiency, and lower optical losses have been realized. These improvements are critical to applications in telecommunications, computing, sensor technology, and metrology. Multi-scale modeling methods illustrate the complexity of improving the electro-optic activity of organic materials, including the necessity of considering the trade-off between improving poling-induced acentric order through chromophore modification and the reduction of chromophore number density associated with such modification. Computational simulations also emphasize the importance of developing chromophore modifications that serve multiple purposes including matrix hardening for enhanced thermal and photochemical stability, control of matrix dimensionality, influence on material viscoelasticity, improvement of chromophore molecular hyperpolarizability, control of material dielectric permittivity and index of refraction properties, and control of material conductance. Consideration of new device architectures is critical to the implementation of chipscale integration of electronics and photonics and achieving the high bandwidths for applications such as next generation (e.g., 5G) telecommunications.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-IeP3-10: Molecular Imaging with Clinical X-Ray Sources and Compton Cameras

Purpose: The application of Compton cameras (CC) is a novel approach translating XFCT to a practical modality realized with clinical CT systems without the restriction of pencil beams. The dual modality design offers additional information without extra patient dose. The purpose of this work is to investigate the feasibility and efficacy of using CCs for volumetric x-ray fluorescence (XF) imaging by Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and statistical image reconstruction. Methods: The feasibility of a CC for imaging x-ray fluorescence emitted from targeted lesions is examined by MC simulations. 3 mm diameter water spheres with various gold concentrations and detector distances are placed inside the lung of an adult human phantom (MIRD) and are irradiated with both fan and cone-beam geometries. A sandwich design CC composed of Silicon and CdTe is used to image the gold nanoparticle distribution. The detection system comprises four 16×26 cm{sup 2} detector panels placed on the chest of a MIRD phantom. Constraints of energy-, spatial-resolution, clinical geometries and Doppler broadening are taken into account. Image reconstruction is performed with a list-mode MLEM algorithm with cone-projector on a GPU. Results: The comparison of reconstruction of cone- and fan-beam excitation shows that the spatial resolution is improved by 23% for fan-beams with significantly decreased processing time. Cone-beam excitation increases scatter content disturbing quantification of lesions near the body surface. Spatial resolution and detectability limit in the center of the lung is 8.7 mm and 20 fM for 50 nm diameter gold nanoparticles at 20 mGy. Conclusion: The implementation of XFCT with a CC is a feasible method for molecular imaging with high atomic number probes. Given constrains of detector resolutions, Doppler broadening, and limited exposure dose, spatial resolutions comparable with PET and molecular sensitivities in the fM range are realizable with current detector technology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discovering the Unknowns: A First Step

This article aims at discovering the unknown variables in the system through data analysis. The main idea is to use the time of data collection as a surrogate variable and try to identify the unknown variables by modeling gradual and sudden changes in the data. We use Gaussian process modeling and a sparse representation of the sudden changes to efficiently estimate the large number of parameters in the proposed statistical model. The method is tested on a realistic dataset generated using a one-dimensional implementation of a Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) simulation model, and encouraging results are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

New results in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distributions in the nucleon

This report summarizes the latest developments in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon. The focus is on recent NNLO fits to high-precision LHC data at 8 and 13 TeV, including Drell–Yan, jet, and top-quark pair production, pursued on the way toward the release of the new generation of CTEQ-TEA general-purpose PDFs. The report also discusses advancements in statistical and numerical methods for PDF determination and uncertainty quantification, highlighting the importance of robust and replicable uncertainties for high-stakes observables. Additionally, it covers phenomenological studies related to PDF determination, such as the interplay of experimental constraints, exploration of correlations between high-x nucleon sea and low-energy parity-violating measurements, fitted charm in the nucleon, the photon PDF in the neutron, and simultaneous SMEFT-PDF analyses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗