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Digital risk analysis in nuclear engineering projects: Designing for safety, performance, reliability, and security

Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are important in promoting the need to identify cybersecurity concerns early in the systems engineering lifecycle so risks from adversarial cyber-attacks can be eliminated or reduced through engineering design practices. In addition to adversarial risk, risk in operational technology systems also includes non-adversarial and unintentional risk from other factors such as human performance errors, environmental conditions, design flaws, and device degradation or failure. This paper introduces a new concept for characterizing digital risk, both adversarial and non-adversarial, and provides the basis for initial research into a novel digital risk analysis approach focused on incorporating attack difficulty into a multi-attribute analysis technique using robust decision-making. This digital risk characterization is also used to frame a discussion on the challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements in an integrated energy system project that incorporates a small modular reactor and industrial facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Validation Assessment of Turbulent Reacting Flow Model Using The Area-Validation Metric on Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Results

Accident analysis and ensuring power plant safety are pivotal in the nuclear energy sector. Significant strides have been achieved over the past few decades regarding fire protection and safety, primarily centered on design and regulatory compliance. Yet, after the Fukushima accident a decade ago, the imperative to enhance measures against fire, internal flooding, and power loss has intensified. Hence, a comprehensive, multilayered protection strategy against severe accidents is needed. Consequently, gaining a deeper insight into pool fires and their behavior through extensive validated data can greatly aid in improving these measures using advanced validation techniques. A model validation study was performed at Sandia National Laboratories in which a 30-cm diameter methanol pool fire was modeled using the SIERRA/Fuego turbulent reacting flow code. This validation study used a standard validation experiment to compare model results against, and conclusions have been published. The fire was modeled with a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulence model with subgrid turbulent kinetic energy closure. Combustion was modeled using a strained laminar flamelet library approach. Radiative heat transfer was accounted for with a model utilizing the gray-gas approximation. In the present study, additional validation analysis is performed using the area validation metric (AVM). These activities are done on multiple datasets involving different variables and temporal/spatial ranges and intervals. In conclusion, the results provide insight into the use of the area validation metric on such temporally varying datasets and the importance of physics-aware use of the metric for proper analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Protected Lithium-Metal Anodes in Batteries: From Liquid to Solid

High-energy lithium-metal batteries are among the most promising candidates for next-generation energy storage systems. With a high specific capacity and a low reduction potential, the Li-metal anode has attracted extensive interest for decades. Dendritic Li formation, uncontrolled interfacial reactions, and huge volume effect are major hurdles to the commercial application of Li-metal anodes. Recent studies have shown that the performance and safety of Li-metal anodes can be significantly improved via organic electrolyte modification, Li-metal interface protection, Li-electrode framework design, separator coating, and so on. Superior to the liquid electrolytes, solid-state electrolytes are considered able to inhibit problematic Li dendrites and build safe solid Li-metal batteries. Inspired by the bright prospects of solid Li-metal batteries, increasing efforts have been devoted to overcoming the obstacles of solid Li-metal batteries, such as low ionic conductivity of the electrolyte and Li–electrolyte interfacial problems. In this paper, the approaches to protect Li-metal anodes from liquid batteries to solid-state batteries are outlined and analyzed in detail. Finally, perspectives regarding the strategies for developing Li-metal anodes are discussed to facilitate the practical application of Li-metal batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Simulations of single- and two-phase shock tubes and gravity-driven wave problems with the RELAP-7 nuclear reactor system analysis code

Propagation of pressure waves in single and two-phase flows is of key interest for nuclear safety analyses, reactor design, construction and life extension of nuclear reactors. In this work, we assess the capabilities of RELAP-7, the next-generation nuclear reactor system code, to solve single- and two-phase flows developing pressure waves. RELAP-7 is based on a 7-equation, two-phase flow model, with distinct phasic pressures. It is well established that these hyperbolic conservation laws can develop shocks and discontinuities and thus, require a stabilization numerical method. The all-Mach flow Entropy Viscosity Method (EVM) is now employed in RELAP-7 as a viscous stabilization approach. In this paper, we briefly describe the implementation of the EVM and use open-literature test cases that exhibit pressure waves to show that the entropy viscosity method performs adequately for these single- and two-phase cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Two-Phase Turbulent Kinetic Energy Budget Computation in Co-Current Taylor Bubble Flow

Simulation of two-phase flows is relevant for reactor design and safety at normal operation or during accident scenarios. Often, the two-phase flow is in a regime in which slugs are formed or where the flow stratifies. Modeling such situations using standard single-phase Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models fails due to an overestimation of the eddy viscosity at the resolved two-phase interface. To solve this, an ad hoc turbulence damping term has been proposed in the literature that reduces the turbulence production locally at a two-phase interface, analogously to turbulence wall functions. However, this approach must be tailored to the specific setting and does not consider physical contributions such as surface tension or flow topology. Therefore, the problem of two-phase interfacial turbulence must be studied more in-depth. In this work, we consider co-current turbulent Taylor bubble flow using high-fidelity numerical simulation. The Basilisk code is used to simulate a Taylor bubble rising in a vertical pipe. By simulating the bubble in a moving frame of reference, we may study the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budgets ahead of the bubble, in its wake, and across the interface. The implementation of the TKE budget computation and the underlying averaging techniques are validated for the single-phase region ahead of the Taylor bubble using reference direct numerical simulation data. The analysis of the TKE budgets in the setting of Taylor bubble flow allows for the study of how turbulence behaves due to the presence of a two-phase interface and, in turn, supports the improvement of two-phase RANS models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Regulatory Considerations for Domestic Reprocessing Facility Physical Security

U.S. advanced non-light-water reactor vendors may pursue collocated on-site reprocessing activities. Therefore, these facilities are likely to possess formula quantities, or Category I quantities, of special nuclear material (SNM) during normal operations. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) has yet to formally establish a regulatory framework for commercial reprocessing. While Category I requirements would explicitly not apply in this circumstance under current regulatory requirements, regulatory certainty does not exist. A novel framework should be developed to ensure public health and safety while also risk-informing the physical security requirements. This report reviews the relevant background of related rulemaking activities and proposes risk-informed physical protection requirements to satisfy these objectives. Insights from NRC security-related rulemaking activities provide a substantial technical basis to approach potential establishment of physical security requirements for reprocessing facilities. If a licensee can provide justification that the material satisfies a sufficient self-protecting radiation dose threshold, the material may not be subject to theft or diversion requirements and only potential sabotage requirements would apply. Furthermore, if the material can be justified to be moderately dilute, a set of risk-informed requirements could provide adequate protection of public health and safety. A revised performance objective for prevention of theft of moderately dilute Category I SNM may be detection to allow prompt recovery by a local law enforcement agency. However, a significant caveat to the proposed categorization scheme is the unknown integration of radiological sabotage with requirements for the protection against theft. Future licensees should consult with the NRC regarding treatment of this regulatory topic. Additionally, the self-protecting radiation dose threshold (either the existing or a proposed future threshold) would need to be considered. An integrated approach may apply graded potential requirements for protection against the design basis threat of radiological sabotage currently applicable to commercial nuclear power plants and Category I SNM facilities defined within 10 CFR 73.1(a).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Enhanced and Synthetic Vision for Terminal Maneuvering Area NextGen Operations

Synthetic Vision Systems and Enhanced Flight Vision System (SVS/EFVS) technologies have the potential to provide additional margins of safety for aircrew performance and enable operational improvements for low visibility operations in the terminal area environment with equivalent efficiency as visual operations. To meet this potential, research is needed for effective technology development and implementation of regulatory and design guidance to support introduction and use of SVS/EFVS advanced cockpit vision technologies in Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) operations. A fixed-base pilot-in-the-loop simulation test was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center that evaluated the use of SVS/EFVS in NextGen low visibility ground (taxi) operations and approach/landing operations. Twelve crews flew approach and landing operations in a simulated NextGen Chicago O Hare environment. Various scenarios tested the potential for EFVS for operations in visibility as low as 1000 ft runway visibility range (RVR) and SVS to enable lower decision heights (DH) than can currently be flown today. Expanding the EFVS visual segment from DH to the runway in visibilities as low as 1000 RVR appears to be viable as touchdown performance was excellent without any workload penalties noted for the EFVS concept tested. A lower DH to 150 ft and/or possibly reduced visibility minima by virtue of SVS equipage appears to be viable when implemented on a Head-Up Display, but the landing data suggests further study for head-down implementations.

Kramer, Lynda J.↗

Expansion of Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of a Light-Water Reactor Coupled with Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plants

This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Flexible Power Operation and Generation (FPOG) program that presented generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors to support the co-location of a high temperature hydrogen electrolysis facility (HTEF). Probabilistic and deterministic hazards assessments and risk analyses are leveraged throughout this report. Several improvements and new analyses are included in this report. First, higher amounts of detail in the specifications of the generic HTEFs are used to produce scaled results for a 100, 500, and 1000 MW nominal hydrogen production facility. An additional hazard assessment of 1000 kg of hydrogen storage is performed. The facility hazards and footprint are assessed to determine the safe distance required for placement near the nuclear power plant (NPP). Second, specific designs for corresponding HESs for the different levels of support required by the HTEFs are analyzed in the PRA model. Third, a hazards analysis of the specified HTEFs leads not only to effects of the quantified risk assessment for the NPP, but also qualitative hazards assessment for the community. Finally, a seismic analysis and a high winds analysis have each been added to the PRA. The results investigate the applicability of the potential licensing approaches which do not require a full United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing review. The PRAs are generic and include listed assumptions. The HTEF design built for this project has further eliminated many conservative assumptions from the prior PRAs in this series. The PRA results indicate that the 10 CFR 50.59 licensing approach is justified due to the minimal increase in initiating event frequencies for all design basis accidents, with none exceeding 7.7%. The PRA results for core damage frequency and large early release frequency support the use of NRC Regulation Guide 1.174 as further risk information that supports a change without a full licensing amendment review. The hazard analyses and PRA confirm the need for engineered blast barriers of storage tanks and the common production header leaving the HTEF. The hazards analyses and PRA also confirm with high confidence that using the assumptions of design in this report that the safety case for licensing an HES addition and an HTEF sited with its unprotected high-pressure stage components 187 meters from the NPP’s transmission towers (the most fragile structure, system, and component) is strong.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA aerospace pyrotechnically actuated systems: Program plan

The NASA Aerospace Pyrotechnically Actuated Systems (PAS) Program, a focused technology program, is being initiated to enhance the reliability, safety, and performance of pyrotechnically actuated systems. In broad terms, this Program Plan presents the approach that helps to resolve concerns raised by the NASA/DOD/DOE Aerospace Pyrotechnic Steering Committee. This Plan reflects key efforts needed in PAS technology. The resources committed to implement the Program will be identified in the Program Implementation Plan (PIP). A top level schedule is included along with major Program milestones and products. Responsibilities are defined in the PIP. The Plan identifies the goals and detailed objectives which define how those goals are to be accomplished. The Program will improve NASA's capabilities to design, develop, manufacture, and test pyrotechnically actuated systems for NASA's programs. Program benefits include the following: advanced pyrotechnic systems technology developed for NASA programs; hands-on pyrotechnic systems expertise; quick response capability to investigate and resolve pyrotechnic problems; enhanced communications and intercenter support among the technical staff; and government-industry PAS technical interchange. The PAS Program produces useful products that are of a broad-based technology nature rather than activities intended to meet specific technology objectives for individual programs. Serious problems have occurred with pyrotechnic devices although near perfect performance is demanded by users. The lack of a program to address those problems in the past is considered a serious omission. The nature of problems experienced as revealed by a survey are discussed and the origin of the program is explained.

Schulze, Norman R.↗

Integrating MBSE into Ongoing Projects: Requirements Validation and Test Planning for the ISS SAFER

The International Space Station (ISS) Simplified Aid for Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) Rescue (SAFER) is the spacewalking astronaut's final safety measure against separating from the ISS and being unable to return safely. Since the late 1990s, the SAFER has been a standard element of the spacewalking astronaut's equipment. The ISS SAFER project was chartered to develop a new block of SAFER units using a highly similar design to the legacy SAFER (known as the USA SAFER). An on-orbit test module was also included in the project to enable periodic maintenance/propulsion system checkout on the ISS SAFER. On the ISS SAFER project, model-based systems engineering (MBSE) was not the initial systems engineering (SE) approach, given the volume of heritage systems engineering and integration (SE&I) products. The initial emphasis was ensuring traceability to ISS program standards as well as to legacy USA SAFER requirements. The requirements management capabilities of the Cradle systems engineering tool were to be utilized to that end. During development, however, MBSE approaches were applied selectively to address specific challenges in requirements validation and test and verification (T&V) planning, which provided measurable efficiencies to the project. From an MBSE perspective, ISS SAFER development presented a challenge and an opportunity. Addressing the challenge first, the project was tasked to use the original USA SAFER operational and design requirements baseline, with a number of additional ISS program requirements to address evolving certification expectations for systems operating on the ISS. Additionally, a need to redesign the ISS SAFER avionics architecture resulted in a set of changes to the design requirements baseline. Finally, the project added an entirely new functionality for on-orbit maintenance. After initial requirements integration, the system requirements count was approaching 1000, which represented a growth of 4x over the original USA SAFER system. This presented the challenge - How to confirm that this new set of requirements set would result in the creation of the desired capability.

Anderson, Herbert A.↗

Trustworthiness modeling and evaluation for a nearly autonomous management and control system

The Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system supports the advanced reactor operation by recommending control actions to operators based on real-time measurements and digital twins (DTs) learning from the knowledge base. To enable the safe and reliable use of autonomous technologies, NAMAC and its recommendations should be trustworthy to operators and regulators at both the design and operation stages. This study proposes a NAMAC trustworthiness modeling and evaluation framework supported by trustworthiness ontologies and evidence-based approaches. The development-time and run-time ontologies are separately constructed and then converted to Bayesian networks to quantitatively evaluate the NAMAC trustworthiness. This evaluation is demonstrated by collecting and characterizing evidence from NAMAC practices, such as the development and assessment of the NAMAC system, data coverage assessment, and the training and optimizations of neural-network-based DTs. Our proposed approach can aggregate various trustworthiness attributes of complex artificial-intelligence-supported systems for safety-critical applications. It also considers the interaction between different DTs and extends beyond the trustworthiness evaluation of a single DT. In conclusion, the evidence-based method enhances the transparency of the trustworthiness modeling and evaluation processes and helps identify uncertainties and subjectivity involved in the processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High-Density, Low-Hysteresis Storage Using Hydrated Salts in Surface-Functionalized Hydrogels (Final Technical Report)

Nearly 70 years ago, Glauber’s salt was identified as a leading phase change material (PCM) in terms of its heat storage density (~2x paraffin), thermal conductivity (~1W/m·K), safety, availability and cost (~$\$$100/ton). However, the complex issues of supercooling and incongruent melting due to phase separation have prevented realization of the promise. The addition of thickeners and nucleating agents such as borax solve these issues but only over few cycles. This work aims to (a) resolve long-standing challenges with Glauber’s salt as a thermal storage material through a unique materials approach, (b) to characterize the new material’s properties that are relevant to performance and (c) to explore its incorporation into commercial water heaters. The materials concept involves encapsulating the salt in custom-designed, large-mesh hydrogels that enable breakthrough advances. Specifically, (1) the choice of mesh size and polymer chemistry control diffusion of salt/water and help to eliminate phase segregation. With the hydrogel itself occupying <10% volume, there is little loss in storage density compared to another encapsulation. (2) Specific nucleation centers that covalently tether to the hydrogel trigger heterogeneous nucleation, eliminating supercooling-associated hysteresis losses. The fact that they are spatially tethered, prevents the loss in performance over multiple freeze/thaw cycles (>100). We report extensive characterization of the hydrogel complex in terms of its storage density, freezing/melting temperature, cycling losses, rheological properties, aging and thermal conductivity. The novel material developed in this work is a significant advancement over the state-of-art. Finally, we investigate its potential as a thermal storage material for commercial/residential water heating and identify scenarios in which its deployment is advantageous.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Phase 1 Space Fission Propulsion System Design Considerations

Fission technology can enable rapid, affordable access to any point in the solar system. If fission propulsion systems are to be developed to their full potential; however, near-term customers must be identified and initial fission systems successfully developed, launched, and operated. Studies conducted in fiscal year 2001 (IISTP, 2001) show that fission electric propulsion (FEP) systems operating at 80 kWe or above could enhance or enable numerous robotic outer solar system missions of interest. At these power levels it is possible to develop safe, affordable systems that meet mission performance requirements. In selecting the system design to pursue, seven evaluation criteria were identified: safety, reliability, testability, specific mass, cost, schedule, and programmatic risk. A top-level comparison of three potential concepts was performed: an SP-100 based pumped liquid lithium system, a direct gas cooled system, and a heatpipe cooled system. For power levels up to at least 500 kWt (enabling electric power levels of 125-175 kWe, given 25-35% power conversion efficiency) the heatpipe system has advantages related to several criteria and is competitive with respect to all. Hardware-based research and development has further increased confidence in the heatpipe approach. Successful development and utilization of a "Phase 1" fission electric propulsion system will enable advanced Phase 2 and Phase 3 systems capable of providing rapid, affordable access to any point in the solar system.

Houts, Mike↗

The Conference Proceedings of the 2001 Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) of the WCTR Society

The ATRS held its Annual conference at Jeju Island, Korea in July 2001. The conference was a success with nearly 140 participants including 70 presenters. This report contains presentations from Volume 1 on the following: Airline and Travel Agent Relationships in Asia;Benchmarking Aviation Safety in the Commercial Airline Industry;Impact of Frequent Flyer Program on the Demand for Air Travel; Application of Genetic Algorithm on Airline Schedule;The Effects of Dual Carrier Designation and Partial Liberalization: The Case of Canada;Defense of Air Carriers and Air Agencies in FAA Enforcement proceedin gs - Damage Control Before the Case Arises; Cost Incentives for Airline Mergers? - An examination on the cost impact of U.S. airline mergers and acquisitions;Airport Regulation, Airline Competition and Canada's Airport System; Airline Competition: The Case of Israel's Domestic Doupoly; Non-Financial Indicators of Airline Distress: A Conceptual Approach;and Airport Privatization: An Empirical Analysis of Financial and Operational Efficiency.

Lee, Yeong-Heok↗

Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

Denney, Ewen↗

Project 5S: A Safe Stepping Stone into the Solar System

The human exploration program, at least in NASA, has been directed to move beyond the Moon and travel on a flexible path into the solar system. Reaching a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is a major human space flight goal but such missions have tight times and life-support requirements that require huge steps from current capabilities. An objective between the Moon and a NEA is needed. Example interim objectives are the Lagrangian points in either the Sun-Earth or Earth-Moon (EM) system. The nearest of these points beyond the Moon is E-M L2. The Lagrangian points are empty (as far as we know). As objectives for human flight,it has been argued that they suffer from a lack of public interest and of meaningful objectives for astronaut operations. To provide a physical target, a robotic spacecraft could retrieve a small NEA and bring it to a Lagrangian or other nearer-Earth point to be accessed and utilized for human-mission objectives. This paper reports on the results of a recently completed study of an asteroid retrieval mission sponsored by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) at the California Institute of Technology. The study included an evaluation of potential targets, mission objectives, mission and system design, and potential capture mechanisms. The study concluded that, while challenging, there are no fundamental show stoppers and that such a mission would be possible with technology expected to be available in this decade. The final destination selected (for safety and mission operations) was high lunar orbit. Two options for target selection are considered: (i) retrieving a small (7 meter) NEA with a mass of order 500,000 kg, and (ii) taking a similar size boulder of a large known carbonaceous NEA. Several areas of technology and program requirements were identified, but the most important conclusion was that this approach enables meeting a goal of humans going to a NEA by the mid-2020s. The advantages and benefits for human exploration are considerable as are the advances that would be made in space-resource utilization and science for further exploration and development of the solar system. The combination of the robotic mission to move the asteroid and the human mission to go to its new destination and conduct astronaut operations there would provide a boost and purpose to human space flight.

asteroid retrieval↗

Development of a High-Fidelity Simulation Environment for Shadow-Mode Assessments of Air Traffic Concepts

This paper describes the Shadow-Mode Assessment Using Realistic Technologies for the National Airspace System (SMART-NAS) Test Bed. The SMART-NAS Test Bed is an air traffic simulation platform being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The SMART-NAS Test Bed's core purpose is to conduct high-fidelity, real-time, human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations of current and proposed future air traffic concepts for the United States' Next Generation Air Transportation System called NextGen. The setup, configuration, coordination, and execution of realtime, human-in-the-loop air traffic management simulations are complex, tedious, time intensive, and expensive. The SMART-NAS Test Bed framework is an alternative to the current approach and will provide services throughout the simulation workflow pipeline to help alleviate these shortcomings. The principle concepts to be simulated include advanced gate-to-gate, trajectory-based operations, widespread integration of novel aircraft such as unmanned vehicles, and real-time safety assurance technologies to enable autonomous operations. To make this possible, SNTB will utilize Web-based technologies, cloud resources, and real-time, scalable, communication middleware. This paper describes the SMART-NAS Test Bed's vision, purpose, its concept of use, and the potential benefits, key capabilities, high-level requirements, architecture, software design, and usage.

human-in-the-loop↗

Minimum-Variance Control Allocation Considering Parametric Model Uncertainty

The control allocation problem was investigated for linear dynamical systems with known parametric uncertainty. Minimizing a cost function that penalizes the variance of the error in achieving commanded forces and moments on the vehicle resulted in a special case of the weighted pseudo-inverse allocator. Rather than an engineer designing the weighting matrix, it is computed from the covariances of the control effectiveness parameters. This minimum-variance allocator balances the effectiveness of the control inputs against the corresponding levels of uncertainty. The approach was demonstrated using simulations of aircraft with realistic uncertainty levels operating in open-loop and closed-loop configurations. Results showed that when model uncertainty is known, significant, and unevenly distributed amongst the controls, the minimum-variance allocator more often achieves the intended forces and moments on the vehicle in comparison to other allocators, which can lead to increased performance, reliability, and safety during flight tests. The cost for this robustness is a diminished achievable moment space for the vehicle.

Control allocation↗