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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE): Improvements and Applications for Studying Precipitation Processes

Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.

GCE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling and data assimilation for Mars Observer

The Mars Observer mission will return a substantial set of meteorological data for the atmosphere of Mars, principally in the form of thermal infrared soundings from the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR). The dataset will enable global studies of a range of dynamical and physical phenomena in the martian atmosphere. The solar orbital configuration of Mars Observer, however, means that the coverage of the martian atmosphere and surface by remote sounding instruments will be asynchronous. This leads to difficulties of interpretation when studying synoptic-scale phenomena with timescales of a few days. In an attempt to overcome such problems we propose to use data assimilation techniques, as currently employed for operational weather forecasting on the Earth, in conjunction with a Martian General Circulation Model (MGCM) that is under development at Oxford and Reading Universities. An overview of the model and assimilation scheme will be given, with reference to problems encountered so far in applying such methods to remote-sensing observations of the martian atmosphere.

Lewis, Stephen R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of effective hydrologic properties of soils from observations of vegetation density

A one-dimensional model of the annual water balance is reviewed. Improvements are made in the method of calculating the bare soil component of evaporation, and in the way surface retention is handled. A natural selection hypothesis, which specifies the equilibrium vegetation density for a given, water limited, climate soil system, is verified through comparisons with observed data. Comparison of CDF's of annual basin yield derived using these soil properties with observed CDF's provides verification of the soil-selection procedure. This method of parameterization of the land surface is useful with global circulation models, enabling them to account for both the nonlinearity in the relationship between soil moisture flux and soil moisture concentration, and the variability of soil properties from place to place over the Earth's surface.

Tellers, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential ExoVenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere maybe a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential Exovenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗
NASA NTRS2015

Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.

Tropical Cyclones↗
DOE OSTI2020

Origins of East Asian Summer Monsoon Seasonality

The East Asian summer monsoon is unique among summer monsoon systems in its complex seasonality, exhibiting distinct intraseasonal stages. Previous studies have alluded to the downstream influence of the westerlies flowing around the Tibetan Plateau as key to its existence. We explore this hypothesis using an atmospheric general circulation model that simulates the intraseasonal stages with fidelity. Without a Tibetan Plateau, East Asia exhibits only one primary convective stage typical of other monsoons. As the plateau is introduced, the distinct rainfall stages—spring, pre-mei-yu, mei-yu, and midsummer—emerge, and rainfall becomes more intense overall. This emergence coincides with a pronounced modulation of the westerlies around the plateau and extratropical northerlies penetrating northeastern China. The northerlies meridionally constrain the moist southerly flow originating from the tropics, leading to a band of lower-tropospheric convergence and humidity front that produces the rainband. The northward migration of the westerlies away from the northern edge of the plateau leads to a weakening of the extratropical northerlies, which, coupled with stronger monsoonal southerlies, leads to the northward migration of the rainband. When the peak westerlies migrate north of the plateau during the midsummer stage, the extratropical northerlies disappear, leaving only the monsoon low-level circulation that penetrates northeastern China; the rainband disappears, leaving isolated convective rainfall over northeastern China. In short, East Asian rainfall seasonality results from the interaction of two seasonally evolving circulations—the monsoonal southerlies that strengthen and extend northward, and the midlatitude northerlies that weaken and eventually disappear—as summer progresses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Initial Verification of GEOS-4 Aerosols Using CALIPSO and MODIS: Scene Classification

A-train sensors such as MODIS and MISR provide column aerosol properties, and in the process a means of estimating aerosol type (e.g. smoke vs. dust). Correct classification of aerosol type is important because retrievals are often dependent upon selection of the right aerosol model. In addition, aerosol scene classification helps place the retrieved products in context for comparisons and analysis with aerosol transport models. The recent addition of CALIPSO to the A-train now provides a means of classifying aerosol distribution with altitude. CALIPSO level 1 products include profiles of attenuated backscatter at 532 and 1064 nm, and depolarization at 532 nm. Backscatter intensity, wavelength ratio, and depolarization provide information on the vertical profile of aerosol concentration, size, and shape. Thus similar estimates of aerosol type using MODIS or MISR are possible with CALIPSO, and the combination of data from all sensors provides a means of 3D aerosol scene classification. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-4) provides global 3D aerosol mass for sulfate, sea salt, dust, and black and organic carbon. A GEOS-4 aerosol scene classification algorithm has been developed to provide estimates of aerosol mixtures along the flight track for NASA's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) satellite lidar. GLAS launched in 2003 and did not have the benefit of depolarization measurements or other sensors from the A-train. Aerosol typing from GLAS data alone was not possible, and the GEOS-4 aerosol classifier has been used to identify aerosol type and improve the retrieval of GLAS products. Here we compare 3D aerosol scene classification using CALIPSO and MODIS with the GEOS-4 aerosol classifier. Dust, smoke, and pollution examples will be discussed in the context of providing an initial verification of the 3D GEOS-4 aerosol products. Prior model verification has only been attempted with surface mass comparisons and column optical depth from AERONET and MODIS.

Welton, Ellsworth J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Use of an Existing Airborne Radon Data Base in the Verification of the NASA/AEAP Core Model

The primary objective of this project was to apply the tropospheric atmospheric radon (Rn222) measurements to the development and verification of the global 3-D atmospheric chemical transport model under development by NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP). The AEAP project had two principal components: (1) a modeling effort, whose goal was to create, test and apply an elaborate three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model (the NASA/AEAP Core model to an evaluation of the possible short and long-term effects of aircraft emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate--and (2) a measurement effort, whose goal was to obtain a focused set of atmospheric measurements that would provide some of the observational data used in the modeling effort. My activity in this project was confined to the first of these components. Both atmospheric transport and atmospheric chemical reactions (as well the input and removal of chemical species) are accounted for in the NASA/AEAP Core model. Thus, for example, in assessing the effect of aircraft effluents on the chemistry of a given region of the upper troposphere, the model must keep track not only of the chemical reactions of the effluent species emitted by aircraft flying in this region, but also of the transport into the region of these (and other) species from other, remote sources--for example, via the vertical convection of boundary layer air to the upper troposphere. Radon, because of its known surface source and known radioactive half-life, and freedom from chemical production or loss, and from removal from the atmosphere by physical scavenging, is a recognized and valuable tool for testing the transport components of global transport and circulation models.

Kritz, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Regional Analysis of Cloudy Mean Spherical Albedo over the Marine Stratocumulus Region and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. This study examines the relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used in this study is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.50 x 2.50 latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakleys (1991) theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.(1990) findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 in) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al. theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase Modeling of the TRAPPIST-1 Planetary Atmospheres

Transiting compact multiplanet systems provide many unique opportunities to characterize the planets, including studies of size distributions, mean densities, orbital dynamics, and atmospheric compositions. The relatively short orbital periods in these systems ensure that events requiring specific orbital locations of the planets (such as primary transit and secondary eclipse points) occur with high frequency. The orbital motion and associated phase variations of the planets provide a means to constrain the atmospheric compositions through measurement of their albedos. Here we describe the expected phase variations of the TRAPPIST-1 system and times of superior conjunction when the summation of phase effects produce maximum amplitudes. We also describe the infrared flux emitted by the TRAPPIST-1 planets and the influence on the overall phase amplitudes. We further present the results from using the global circulation model ROCKE-3D to model the atmospheres of TRAPPIST-1e and TRAPPIST-1f assuming modern Earth and Archean atmospheric compositions. These simulations are used to calculate predicted phase curves for both reflected light and thermal emission components. We discuss the detectability of these signatures and the future prospects for similar studies of phase variations for relatively faint M stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

A regional analysis of cloudy mean spherical albedo over the marine stratocumulus region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. The relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction are studied in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution, and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakley's theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.'s findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 m) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al's theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stars and linear dunes on Mars

A field containing 11 star and incipient star dunes occurs on Mars at 8.8 deg S, 270.9 deg W. Examples of linear dunes are found in a crater at 59.4 deg S, 343 deg W. While rare, dune varieties that form in bi- and multidirectional wind regimes are not absent from the surface of Mars. The occurence of both of these dune fields offers new insight into the nature of martian wind conditions and sand supply. The linear dunes appears to have formed through modification of a formerly transverse aeolian deposit, suggesting a relatively recent change in local wind direction. The 11 dunes in the star dune locality show a progressive change from barchan to star form as each successive dune has traveled up into a valley, into a more complex wind regime. The star dunes corroborate the model of N. Lancaster (1989), for the formation of star dunes by projection of transverse dunes into a complex, topographically influenced wind regime. The star dunes have dark streaks emanating from them, providing evidence that the dunes were active at or near the time the relevant image was obtained by the Viking 1 orbiter in 1978. The star and linear dunes described here are located in different regions on the martian surface. Unlike most star and linear dunes on Earth, both martian examples are isolated occurrences; neither is part of a major sand sea. Previously published Mars general circulation model results suggest that the region in which the linear dune field occurs should be a bimodal wind regime, while the region in which the star dunes occur should be unimodal. The star dunes are probably the result of localized complication of the wind regime owing to topographic confinement of the dunes. Local topographic influence on wind regime is also evident in the linear dune field, as there are transverse dunes in close proximity to the linear dunes, and their occurrence is best explained by funneling of wind through a topographic gap in the upwind crater wall.

Edgett, Kenneth S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗
NASA NTRS1982

Terrestrial cooling and solar variability

Observational evidence from surface temperature records is presented and discussed which suggests a significant cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to the present. This cooling trend is associated with an increase of the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. Evidence suggests that four of these 80- to 100-year cycles of global surface temperature fluctuation may have occurred, and in succession, from 1600 to the present. Interpretation of sunspot activity were used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). A physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter is hypothesized. Observations of sensible heat flux by stationary planetary waves and transient eddies, as well as general circulation modeling results of these processes, were examined from the viewpoint of the hypothesis of cooling due to reduced insolation.

Agee, E. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth Exchange – Current overview of climate and wildfire-oriented works

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) combines state-of-the-art supercomputing, Earth system modeling, and NASA remote sensing data feeds to deliver a work environment for exploring and analyzing petabyte-scale datasets covering large regions, continents, or the globe. As an accessible platform, NEX can accelerate fundamental research, develop new applications, and reduce overall project costs by providing the research community with data, software, and high-end computing power. Two research thrusts for the NEX community are developing and distributing the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 downscaled climate dataset and the community-driven wildfire research. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and across two of the four “Tier 1” greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The wildfire research thrust leverages geostationary and low earth orbit remote sensing platforms and advanced modeling (WRF). We present a high-level overview of the NEX community, discuss relevant datasets and show several visualization techniques of data used in the wildfire research activity.

NEX↗
NASA NTRS1993

The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part 1: Desertification

This is a general circulation model sensitivity study of the physical mechanisms of the effects of desertification on the Sahel drought. The model vegetation types were changed in the prescribed desertification area, which led to changes in the surface characteristics. The model was integrated for three months (June, July, August) with climatological surface conditions (control) and desertification conditions (anomaly) to examine the summer season response to the changed surface conditions. The control and anomaly experiments consisted of five pairs of integrations with different initial conditions and/or sea surface temperature boundary conditions. In the desertification experiment, the moisture flux convergence and rainfall were reduced in the test area and increased to the immediate south of this area. The simulated anomaly dipole pattern was similar to the observed African drought patterns in which the axis of the maximum rainfall shifts to the south. The circulation changes in the desertification experiment were consistent with those observed during sub-Saharan dry years. The tropical easterly jet was weaker and the African easterly jet was stronger than normal. Further, in agreement with the observations, the easterly wave disturbances were reduced in intensity but not in number. Descending motion dominated the desertification area. The surface energy budget and hydrological cycle were also changed substantially in the anomaly experiment.

Xue, Yongkang↗
NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗