Uncertainty quantification for computational modelling of laser powder bed fusion
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Wells, Scott↗
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Computational prediction of dielectric breakdown strength of a transformer paper in oil with uncertainty quantification
The determination of the dielectric breakdown strengths of microstructurally heterogeneous materials has been a primarily experimental endeavor. We report the development of a microstructure-level model for computationally predicting the breakdown strength and analyzing the interactions between electromagnetic pulses (EMP) and the constituents in a composite of cellulose-based paper and mineral oil found in electrical transformers. The model allows explicit simulation of the material breakdown process by tracking the transition of dielectric constituents from non-conductive to conductive states. The focus is on the electric fields induced in the materials and the overall conditions for dielectric breakdown (defined as the onset of avalanche) caused by the electric field induced in the composite. Responses to three distinct pulse shapes, i.e., Steep Front (SF), Lightning (L), and AC with spectra spanning 60–9 × 105 Hz are considered. It is found that the breakdown strength of the material is significantly affected by microstructure heterogeneities, the spatial variations of the constituent properties, and the pulse shapes. A probabilistic characterization of the breakdown strength is computationally obtained and compared with experimental measurements. Although one particular material is analyzed, the model and approach are applicable to other heterogeneous materials as well.
breakdowns↗
Cell degradation quantification—a performance metric-based approach
A safe and reliable battery operation needs effective diagnostic tools. A quantitative failure analysis (FA) to enable cell qualification and quantify its effectiveness for reliable and safe operation of rechargeable Li batteries (RLB) is shown here. The method can identify and quantify potential failure based on the state of charge (SOC) under any operating conditions. A precise and accurate electrochemical analytic diagnosis (eCAD) of 14 rechargeable Li || NMC622 cells of the same build are used as an example. The FA by eCAD can quantitatively decipher good, bad and ugly cells in cycle aging. The cell qualification is based on thermodynamic SOC, not experimental conditions. The method provides a quantitative failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to reveal diverse “dead Li” formation that affects the reversibility of the Li anode and charge retention in the cell. This cell qualification method highlights the potential to improve cell quality for safe operation, with strong implications for early fault detection, FA, risk mitigation, state estimation and life prediction for reliable and safe RLB operations
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Federated learning for 2D synchrotron x-ray diffractometry: a cross-institutional approach for phase quantification of Ti–6Al–4V alloy
High-energy Two dimensional (2D) synchrotron x-ray diffractometry provides important insights into the atomistic structure and phase evolution of materials, yet traditional analysis methods remain complex, knowledge-intensive, and computationally demanding. Deep-learning models offer a powerful alternative for automating their analysis. Institutions that hold these datasets may be unwilling to share their data due to privacy and security policies, as well as the challenges associated with large-scale data transfer. As a result, models trained on local datasets often perform well only on their own data but exhibit bias and poor generalization across different instruments or facilities. To overcome these limitations, we explore federated learning (FL) for 2D synchrotron diffractograms, enabling collaborative model training without exchanging raw data. In this study, 2D synchrotron diffractograms of Ti–6Al–4V alloy collected from two independent facilities are used to train convolutional neural networks for predicting the β-phase volume fraction. Experimental results show that federated global models significantly outperform locally trained models in terms of generalization and achieve accuracy comparable to centralized trained models. These findings demonstrate the potential of FL to enable secure, cross-institutional collaboration and enhance the scalability of deep-learning-based materials characterization.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification with diffusion models: extending CDI to 2D spatial conditioning
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36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
X-ray quantification of oxygen groups on diamond surfaces for quantum applications
Abstract Identifying the surface chemistry of diamond materials is increasingly important for device applications, especially quantum sensors. Oxygen-related termination species are widely used because they are naturally abundant, chemically stable, and compatible with stable nitrogen vacancy centres near the diamond surface. Diamond surfaces host a mixture of oxygen-related species, and the precise chemistry and relative coverage of different species can lead to dramatically different electronic properties, with direct consequences for near-surface quantum sensors. However, it is challenging to unambiguously identify the different groups or quantify the relative surface coverage. Here we show that a combination of x-ray absorption and photoelectron spectroscopies can be used to quantitatively identify the coverage of carbonyl functional groups on the { 100 } diamond surface. Using this method we reveal an unexpectedly high fraction of carbonyl groups ( > 9%) on a wide range of sample surfaces. Furthermore, through a combination of ab initio calculations and spectroscopic studies of engineered surfaces, we reveal unexpected complexities in the x-ray spectroscopy of oxygen terminated diamond surfaces. Of particular note, we find the binding energies of carbonyl-related groups on diamond differs significantly from other organic systems, likely resulting in previous misestimation of carbonyl fractions on diamond surfaces.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Quantification of microtubule stutters: dynamic instability behaviors that are strongly associated with catastrophe
Microtubules (MTs) are cytoskeletal fibers that undergo dynamic instability (DI), a remarkable process involving phases of growth and shortening separated by stochastic transitions called catastrophe and rescue. Dissecting DI mechanism(s) requires first characterizing and quantifying these dynamics, a subjective process that often ignores complexity in MT behavior. We present a Statistical Tool for Automated Dynamic Instability Analysis (STADIA) that identifies and quantifies not only growth and shortening, but also a category of intermediate behaviors that we term “stutters.” During stutters, the rate of MT length change tends to be smaller in magnitude than during typical growth or shortening phases. Quantifying stutters and other behaviors with STADIA demonstrates that stutters precede most catastrophes in our in vitro experiments and dimer-scale MT simulations, suggesting that stutters are mechanistically involved in catastrophes. Related to this idea, we show that the anticatastrophe factor CLASP2γ works by promoting the return of stuttering MTs to growth. STADIA enables more comprehensive and data-driven analysis of MT dynamics compared with previous methods. The treatment of stutters as distinct and quantifiable DI behaviors provides new opportunities for analyzing mechanisms of MT dynamics and their regulation by binding proteins.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
CANA v1.0.0: efficient quantification of canalization in automata networks
The biomolecular networks underpinning cell function exhibit canalization, or the buffering of fluctuations required to function in a noisy environment. We present a new major release of $\tt{CANA}$, v1.0.0, an open-source Python package for understanding canalization in automata network models, discrete dynamical systems in which activation of biomolecular entities (e.g. transcription of genes) is modeled as the activity of coupled automata. One understudied putative mechanism for canalization is the functional equivalence of biomolecular regulators (e.g. among the transcription factors for a gene). We study this mechanism using the theory of symmetry in discrete functions. We present a new exact method, $\tt{schematodes}$, for finding maximal symmetry groups among the inputs to discrete functions, and integrate it into $\tt{CANA}$. The $\tt{schematodes}$ method substantially outperforms the inexact method of previous $\tt{CANA}$ versions both in speed and accuracy. We apply $\tt{CANA}$ v1.0.0 to study symmetry in 74 experimentally supported automata network models from the Cell Collective (CC) repository. The symmetry distribution is significantly different in the CC than in random automata with the same in-degree (connectivity) and bias (average output) (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, P ≪ .001). Its spread is much wider than in a null model (IQR 0.31 versus IQR 0.20 with equal medians), demonstrating that the CC is enriched in functions with extreme symmetry or asymmetry.
Boolean networks↗
Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation
SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
GLAD-M35: a joint P and S global tomographic model with uncertainty quantification
We present our third and final generation joint P and S global adjoint tomography (GLAD) model, GLAD-M35, and quantify its uncertainty based on a low-rank approximation of the inverse Hessian. Starting from our second-generation model, GLAD-M25, we added 680 new earthquakes to the database for a total of 2160 events. New P-wave categories are included to compensate for the imbalance between P- and S-wave measurements, and we enhanced the window selection algorithm to include more major-arc phases, providing better constraints on the structure of the deep mantle and more than doubling the number of measurement windows to 40 million. Two stages of a Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton inversion were performed, each comprising five iterations. With this BFGS update history, we determine the model’s standard deviation and resolution length through randomized singular value decomposition.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Interparameter trade-off quantification and reduction in isotropic-elastic full-waveform inversion: synthetic experiments and Hussar land data set application
The problem of inverting for multiple physical parameters in the subsurface using seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) is complicated by interparameter trade-off arising from inherent ambiguities between different physical parameters. Parameter resolution is often characterized using scattering radiation patterns, but these neglect some important aspects of interparameter trade-off. More general analysis and mitigation of interparameter trade-off in isotropic-elastic FWI is possible through judiciously chosen multiparameter Hessian matrix-vector products. We show that products of multiparameter Hessian off-diagonal blocks with model perturbation vectors, referred to as interparameter contamination kernels , are central to the approach. We then apply the multiparameter Hessian to various vectors designed to provide information regarding the strengths and characteristics of interparameter contamination, both locally and within the whole volume. With numerical experiments, we observe that S-wave velocity perturbations introduce strong contaminations into density and phase-reversed contaminations into P-wave velocity, but themselves experience only limited contaminations from other parameters. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel strategy to mitigate the influence of interparameter trade-off with approximate contamination kernels. Furthermore, we recommend that the local spatial and interparameter trade-off of the inverted models be quantified using extended multiparameter point spread functions (EMPSFs) obtained with pre-conditioned conjugate-gradient algorithm. Compared to traditional point spread functions, the EMPSFs appear to provide more accurate measurements for resolution analysis, by de-blurring the estimations, scaling magnitudes and mitigating interparameter contamination. Approximate eigenvalue volumes constructed with stochastic probing approach are proposed to evaluate the resolution of the inverted models within the whole model. With a synthetic Marmousi model example and a land seismic field data set from Hussar, Alberta, Canada, we confirm that the new inversion strategy suppresses the interparameter contamination effectively and provides more reliable density estimations in isotropic-elastic FWI as compared to standard simultaneous inversion approach.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Spectroscopic quantification of projection effects in the SDSS redMaPPer galaxy cluster catalogue
ABSTRACT Projection effects, whereby galaxies along the line of sight to a galaxy cluster are mistakenly associated with the cluster halo, present a significant challenge for optical cluster cosmology. We use statistically representative spectral coverage of luminous galaxies to investigate how projection effects impact the low-redshift limit of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) redMaPPer galaxy cluster catalogue. Spectroscopic redshifts enable us to differentiate true cluster members from false positives and determine the fraction of candidate cluster members viewed in projection. Our main results can be summarized as follows: first, we show that a simple double-Gaussian model can be used to describe the distribution of line-of-sight velocities in the redMaPPer sample; secondly, the incidence of projection effects is substantial, accounting for ∼16 per cent of the weighted richness for the lowest richness objects; thirdly, projection effects are a strong function of richness, with the contribution in the highest richness bin being several times smaller than for low-richness objects; fourthly, our measurement has a similar amplitude to state-of-the-art models, but finds a steeper dependence of projection effects on richness than these models; and fifthly, the slope of the observed velocity dispersion–richness relation, corrected for projection effects, implies an approximately linear relationship between the true, three-dimensional halo mass and three-dimensional richness. Our results provide a robust, empirical description of the impact of projection effects on the SDSS redMaPPer cluster sample and exemplify the synergies between optical imaging and spectroscopic data for studies of galaxy cluster astrophysics and cosmology.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Uncertainty quantification of the virial black hole mass with conformal prediction
Precise measurements of the black hole mass are essential to gain insight on the black hole and host galaxy co-evolution. A direct measure of the black hole mass is often restricted to nearest galaxies and instead, an indirect method using the single-epoch virial black hole mass estimation is used for objects at high redshifts. However, this method is subjected to biases and uncertainties as it is reliant on the scaling relation from a small sample of local active galactic nuclei. In this study, we propose the application of conformalized quantile regression (CQR) to quantify the uncertainties of the black hole predictions in a machine learning setting. We compare CQR with various prediction interval techniques and demonstrated that CQR can provide a more useful prediction interval indicator. In contrast to baseline approaches for prediction interval estimation, we show that the CQR method provides prediction intervals that adjust to the black hole mass and its related properties. That is it yields a tighter constraint on the prediction interval (hence more certain) for a larger black hole mass, and accordingly, bright and broad spectral line width source. Using a combination of neural network model and CQR framework, the recovered virial black hole mass predictions and uncertainties are comparable to those measured from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The code is publicly available.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Modeling with uncertainty quantification reveals the essentials of a non-canonical algal carbon-concentrating mechanism
The thermoacidophilic red alga Cyanidioschyzon merolae survives its challenging environment likely in part by operating a carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM). Here, we demonstrated that C. merolae 's cellular affinity for CO 2 is stronger than the affinity of its rubisco for CO 2 . This finding provided additional evidence that C. merolae operates a CCM while lacking the structures and functions characteristic of CCMs in other organisms. To test how such a CCM could function, we created a mathematical compartmental model of a simple CCM, distinct from those we have seen previously described in detail. The results of our modeling supported the feasibility of this proposed minimal and non-canonical CCM in C. merolae . To facilitate the robust modeling of this process, we measured and incorporated physiological and enzymatic parameters into the model. Additionally, we trained a surrogate machine-learning model to emulate the mechanistic model and characterized the effects of model parameters on key outputs. This parameter exploration enabled us to identify model features that influenced whether the model met the experimentally derived criteria for functional carbon concentration and efficient energy usage. Such parameters included cytosolic pH, bicarbonate pumping cost and kinetics, cell radius, carboxylation velocity, number of thylakoid membranes, and CO 2 membrane permeability. Our exploration thus suggested that a non-canonical CCM could exist in C. merolae and illuminated the essential features generally necessary for CCMs to function.
Steensma, Anne K. [Michigan State Univ., East Lans↗
High-throughput quantification of quasistatic, dynamic and spall strength of materials across 10 orders of strain rates
Abstract The response of metals and their microstructures under extreme dynamic conditions can be markedly different from that under quasistatic conditions. Traditionally, high strain rates and shock stresses are achieved using cumbersome and expensive methods such as the Kolsky bar or large spall experiments. These methods are low throughput and do not facilitate high-fidelity microstructure–property linkages. In this work, we combine two powerful small-scale testing methods, custom nanoindentation, and laser-driven microflyer (LDMF) shock, to measure the dynamic and spall strength of metals. The nanoindentation system is configured to test samples from quasistatic to dynamic strain-rate regimes. The LDMF shock system can test samples through impact loading, triggering spall failure. The model material used for testing is magnesium alloys, which are lightweight, possess high-specific strengths, and have historically been challenging to design and strengthen due to their mechanical anisotropy. We adopt two distinct microstructures, solutionized (no precipitates) and peak-aged (with precipitates) to demonstrate interesting upticks in strain-rate sensitivity and evolution of dynamic strength. At high shock-loading rates, we unravel an interesting paradigm where the spall strength vs. strain rate of these materials converges, but the failure mechanisms are markedly different. Peak aging, considered to be a standard method to strengthen metallic alloys, causes catastrophic failure, faring much worse than solutionized alloys. Our high-throughput testing framework not only quantifies strength but also teases out unexplored failure mechanisms at extreme strain rates, providing valuable insights for the rapid design and improvement of materials for extreme environments.
Eswarappa Prameela, Suhas (ORCID:0000000334530184)↗
Uncertainty quantification of optical models in fission fragment deexcitation
Here, we take the first step towards incorporating compound nuclear observables at astrophysically relevant energies into the experimental evidence used to constrain optical models, by propagating the uncertainty in two global optical potentials, one phenomenological and one microscopic, to correlated fission observables using the Monte Carlo Hauser-Feshbach formalism. We compare to a wide range of historic and recent experimental fission measurements, and discuss in detail regions of disagreement. We find that the parametric optical model uncertainty in neutron-fragment correlated observables involving neutron energy is significant. On the other hand, we observe that other experimental features, particularly neutron-fragment correlations near the 132 Sn shell closure and the high energy component of neutron spectra, are unlikely to be explained by the optical potential, and will require further experimental and theoretical effort to explain.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Error quantification and comparison of binary neutron star gravitational waveforms from numerical relativity codes
Future gravitational wave detections of merging binary neutron star systems have the possibility to tightly constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter. In order to extract such constraints, gravitational waveform models need to be calibrated to accurate numerical relativity simulations of the late inspiral and merger. In this work, we take an essential step toward classifying the error and potential systematics in current generation numerical relativity simulations of merging binary neutron stars. To this end, we perform a direct comparison of two codes (fil, spec), which differ in many aspects, including the numerical methods and discretizations used and equations solved. We find that despite these different approaches, the codes are—within current numerical resolution bounds—fully consistent, and broadly comparable in cost for a given accuracy level. Our results indicate that the error in the waveforms is primarily dominated by the hydrodynamic evolution, consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Finally, we also discuss current limitations and cost estimates for numerical relativity simulations to reach the accuracies required in the era of next-generation gravitational detectors.
gravitational waves↗
Uncertainty quantification for virtual diagnostic of particle accelerators
Not Available
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗