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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Development of Monte Carlo Capability for Orion Parachute Simulations

Parachute test programs employ Monte Carlo simulation techniques to plan testing and make critical decisions related to parachute loads, rate-of-descent, or other parameters. This paper describes the development and use of a MATLAB-based Monte Carlo tool for three parachute drop test simulations currently used by NASA. The Decelerator System Simulation (DSS) is a legacy 6 Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) simulation used to predict parachute loads and descent trajectories. The Decelerator System Simulation Application (DSSA) is a 6-DOF simulation that is well suited for modeling aircraft extraction and descent of pallet-like test vehicles. The Drop Test Vehicle Simulation (DTVSim) is a 2-DOF trajectory simulation that is convenient for quick turn-around analysis tasks. These three tools have significantly different software architectures and do not share common input files or output data structures. Separate Monte Carlo tools were initially developed for each simulation. A recently-developed simulation output structure enables the use of the more sophisticated DSSA Monte Carlo tool with any of the core-simulations. The task of configuring the inputs for the nominal simulation is left to the existing tools. Once the nominal simulation is configured, the Monte Carlo tool perturbs the input set according to dispersion rules created by the analyst. These rules define the statistical distribution and parameters to be applied to each simulation input. Individual dispersed parameters are combined to create a dispersed set of simulation inputs. The Monte Carlo tool repeatedly executes the core-simulation with the dispersed inputs and stores the results for analysis. The analyst may define conditions on one or more output parameters at which to collect data slices. The tool provides a versatile interface for reviewing output of large Monte Carlo data sets while preserving the capability for detailed examination of individual dispersed trajectories. The Monte Carlo tool described in this paper has proven useful in planning several Crew Exploration Vehicle parachute tests.

Moore, James W.↗

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation↗

STS-9 BET products

The final products generated for the STS-9, which landed on December 8, 1983 are reported. The trajectory reconstruction utilized an anchor epoch of GMT corresponding to an initial altitude of h 356 kft, selected in view of the limited tracking coverage available. The final state utilized IMU2 measurements and was based on processing radar tracking from six C-bands and a single S-band station, plus six photo-theodolite cameras in the vicinity of Runway 17 at Edwards Air Force Base. The final atmosphere (FLAIR9/UN=581199C) was based on a composite of the remote measured data and the 1978 Air Force Reference Atmosphere model. The Extended BET is available as STS9BET/UN=274885C. The AEROBET and MMLE input files created are discussed. Plots of the more relevant parameters from the AEROBET (reel number NL0624) are included. Input parameters, final residual plots, a trajectory listing, and data archival information are defined.

Findlay, J. T.↗

Observation of bow shock protons at the lunar orbit

Protons with energies ranging from about 500 eV to 3,500 eV were observed by the Suprathermal Ion Detector Experiment (SIDE) on both the dusk and dawn sides of the magnetosphere. On each lunation these particles appeared as a rather continuous phenomenon for 3 to 5 days after crossing from the dawn-side magnetosheath into the solar wind and for about 2 days prior to entering the dusk-side magnetosheath. Data from the SIDE and from the Explorer 35 lunar orbiting magnetometer were analyzed and these data indicated that the transverse ion flows observed by the SIDE in the pre and post bow shock crossing regions of the lunar orbit are due to these deviated solar wind particles. A computer model based on drift trajectories for particles leaving the shock was developed and synthetic particle data produced by this model are in good agreement with the observed data.

Benson, J. L.↗

The Observed Relationship Between Water Vapor and Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Saturation Layer and the Influence of Meridional Transport

We examine balloonsonde observations of water vapor and ozone from three Ticosonde campaigns over San Jose, Costa Rica [10 N, 84 W] during northern summer and a fourth during northern winter. The data from the summer campaigns show that the uppermost portion of the tropical tropopause layer between 360 and 380 K, which we term the tropopause saturation layer or TSL, is characterized by water vapor mixing ratios from proximately 3 to 15 ppmv and ozone from approximately 50 ppbv to 250 ppbv. In contrast, the atmospheric water vapor tape recorder at 380 K and above displays a more restricted 4-7 ppmv range in water vapor mixing ratio. From this perspective, most of the parcels in the TSL fall into two classes - those that need only additional radiative heating to rise into the tape recorder and those requiring some combination of additional dehydration and mixing with drier air. A substantial fraction of the latter class have ozone mixing ratios greater than 150 ppbv, and with water vapor greater than 7 ppmv this air may well have been transported into the tropics from the middle latitudes in conjunction with high-amplitude equatorial waves. We examine this possibility with both trajectory analysis and transport diagnostics based on HIRDLS ozone data. We apply the same approach to study the winter season. Here a very different regime obtains as the ozone-water vapor scatter diagram of the sonde data shows the stratosphere and troposphere to be clearly demarcated with little evidence of mixing in of middle latitude air parcels.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

Management by Trajectory: Trajectory Management Study Report

In order to realize the full potential of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), improved management along planned trajectories between air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and system users (e.g., pilots and airline dispatchers) is needed. Future automation improvements and increased data communications between aircraft and ground automation would make the concept of Management by Trajectory (MBT) possible.

Leiden, Kenneth↗

Method for Extracting Aerodynamic Coefficients and Winds On-the-Fly Using Real-Time GPS Data

The landing accuracy of an autonomous guided parafoil is influenced by its ability to predict the trajectory, which is shaped by the parafoil’s aerodynamic characteristics and atmospheric winds. The parafoil is subjective to imperfections from manufacturing, damage during deployment, lateral asymmetry, and so forth, leading to discrepancies between the actual aerodynamic properties and the onboard aerodynamic model. Thus, by acquiring an accurate knowledge of the aerodynamic properties and real-time winds, the onboard simulation can reduce the undertainties in the dynamics modeling for trajectory propagation to improve the landing accuracy. For that purpose, a non-linear least-squares method is developed to calculate differential corrections for optimizing and extracting the parafoil aerodynamic coefficients and winds on-the-fly using real-time data from the Global Positioning System (GPS). Post-flight analyses from two test flights have shown that the method provides improved simulations that closely match the GPS trajectories.

Lisa Ling↗

Benchmarking all-atom simulations using hydrogen exchange

Molecular dynamics simulations have recently become capable of observing multiple protein unfolding and refolding events in a single-millisecond–long trajectory. This major advance produces atomic-level information with nanosecond resolution, a feat unmatched by experimental methods. Such simulations are being extensively analyzed to assess their description of protein folding, yet the results remain difficult to validate experimentally. We apply a combination of hydrogen exchange, NMR, and other techniques to test the simulations with a resolution of single H-bonds. Several significant discrepancies between the simulations and experimental data were uncovered for regions of the energy surface outside of the native basin. This comparison yields suggestions for improving the force fields and provides a general method for experimentally validating folding simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Two-IMU FDI performance of the sequential probability ratio test during shuttle entry

Performance data for the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) during shuttle entry are presented. Current modeling constants and failure thresholds are included for the full mission 3B from entry through landing trajectory. Minimum 100 percent detection/isolation failure levels and a discussion of the effects of failure direction are presented. Finally, a limited comparison of failures introduced at trajectory initiation shows that the SPRT algorithm performs slightly worse than the data tracking test.

Rich, T. M.↗

Extended atmospheres of comets and outer planet-satellite systems

For the hydrogen coma of comet P/Halley, both a Lyman-alpha image and extensive Lyman-alpha scan data obtained by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Ultraviolet spectrometer as well as H-alpha ground-based spectral observations obtained by the University of Wisconsin Space Physics Group were successfully interpreted and analyzed with our Monte Carlo particle trajectory model. The excellent fit of the model and the Halley data and the water production rate determined near perihelion (9 Feb. 1986) from 13 Dec. 1985 to 13 Jan. 1986 and from 1 Feb. to 7 Mar. 1986 are discussed. Studies for the circumplanetary distribution of atomic hydrogen in the Saturn and Neptune systems were undertaken for escape of H atoms from Titan and Triton, respectively. The discovery of a new mechanism which can dramatically change the normal cylindrically symmetric distribution of hydrogen about the planet is discussed. The implications for the Titan-Saturn and Triton-Neptune are summarized.

Smyth, William H.↗

Results of a FRSI material test under Space Shuttle ascent conditions in the Ames Research Center 9x7 foot supersonic wind tunnel (OS13). Space Shuttle aerothermodynamic data report

A test was conducted in the NASA/ARC 9 x 7 foot supersonic wind tunnel to verify the integrity of Felt Reusable Surface Insulation (FRSI) material in a panel flutter environment. A FRSI sample panel was subjected to the shocks, pressure gradients, and turbulence characteristics encountered at dynamic pressure 1.5 times the 3(sigma) dispersed trajectory flight conditions of the Space Shuttle. Static and fluctuating pressure data were obtained for Mach numbers ranging from 1.55 to 2.5 with dynamic pressures of 625 to 1250 psf. The FRSI panel suffered no appreciable damage as a result of the test.

Lemoine, P. L.↗

Scalable optimal Bayesian classification of single-cell trajectories under regulatory model uncertainty

Single-cell gene expression measurements offer opportunities in deriving mechanistic understanding of complex diseases, including cancer. However, due to the complex regulatory machinery of the cell, gene regulatory network (GRN) model inference based on such data still manifests significant uncertainty. The goal of this paper is to develop optimal classification of single-cell trajectories accounting for potential model uncertainty. Partially-observed Boolean dynamical systems (POBDS) are used for modeling gene regulatory networks observed through noisy gene-expression data. We derive the exact optimal Bayesian classifier (OBC) for binary classification of single-cell trajectories. The application of the OBC becomes impractical for large GRNs, due to computational and memory requirements. To address this, we introduce a particle-based single-cell classification method that is highly scalable for large GRNs with much lower complexity than the optimal solution. The performance of the proposed particle-based method is demonstrated through numerical experiments using a POBDS model of the well-known T-cell large granular lymphocyte (T-LGL) leukemia network with noisy time-series gene-expression data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dispersion and Lifetime of the SO2 Cloud from the August 2008 Kasatochi Eruption

Hemispherical dispersion of the SO2 cloud from the August 2008 Kasatochi eruption is analyzed using satellite data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Goddard Trajectory Model (GTM). The operational OMI retrievals underestimate the total SO2 mass by 20-30% on 8-11 August, as compared with more accurate offline Extended Iterative Spectral Fit (EISF) retrievals, but the error decreases with time due to plume dispersion and a drop in peak SO2 column densities. The GTM runs were initialized with and compared to the operational OMI SO2 data during early plume dispersion to constrain SO2 plume heights and eruption times. The most probable SO2 heights during initial dispersion are estimated to be 10-12 km, in agreement with direct height retrievals using EISF algorithm and IR measurements. Using these height constraints a forward GTM run was initialized on 11 August to compare with the month-long Kasatochi SO2 cloud dispersion patterns. Predicted volcanic cloud locations generally agree with OMI observations, although some discrepancies were observed. Operational OMI SO2 burdens were refined using GTM-predicted mass-weighted probability density height distributions. The total refined SO2 mass was integrated over the Northern Hemisphere to place empirical constraints on the SO2 chemical decay rate. The resulting lower limit of the Kasatochi SO2 e-folding time is approx.8-9 days. Extrapolation of the exponential decay back in time yields an initial erupted SO2 mass of approx.2.2 Tg on 8 August, twice as much as the measured mass on that day.

Krotkov, N. A.↗

PROBING THE NATURE OF THE HELIOSHEATH WITH THE NEUTRAL ATOM SPECTRA MEASURED BY IBEX IN THE VOYAGER 1 DIRECTION

We are able to show by comparing modeled energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) spectra to those measured by Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) that the models along the Voyager 1 (V1) trajectory that best agree with the low energy IBEX data include extra heating due to ram and magnetic energy in the quasi-stagnation region or a kappa ion distribution (with κ = 2.0) in the outer heliosheath. The model explored is the multi-ion, multi-fluid (MI-MF) which treats the pick-up ions and the thermal ion fluids with separate Maxwellian distributions. These effects are included ad hoc in the modeled ENA since they are not present in the model. These results indicate that the low energy spectra of ENAs as measured by IBEX is sensitive to the physical nature of the heliosheath and to effects not traditionally present in current global models. Therefore, by comparing the low energy ENA spectra to models, we can potentially probe the heliosheath in locations beyond those probed by V1 and Voyager 2 (V2)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Preliminary Saturn Atmospheric Density Results From Cassini's Final Plunge

The Cassini spacecraft made its final descent into the planet Saturn on September 15, 2017, capping a twenty year mission full of scientific discoveries. The high gain antenna was held on Earth-point until torques from atmospheric drag caused the spacecraft to lose line-of-sight lock with Earth. The Doppler data collected during the final plunge contains information about the spacecraft’s acceleration due to atmospheric drag, and therefore, the density of Saturn’s atmosphere. In this work, we present preliminary analysis of the end of mission Doppler data and its implications regarding the density of Saturn’s upper atmosphere. Are construction of the spacecraft’s final trajectory is discussed and used to fit a model of Saturn’s atmosphere to the Doppler data taken during the final plunge. The Cassini navigation team’s experience flying the spacecraft through the final five low altitude Saturn periapses is also discussed in the context of atmospheric drag and density models.

Roth, Duane↗

Dawn Orbit Determination Team: Trajectory and Gravity Prediction Performance During Vesta Science Phases

The Dawn spacecraft was launched on September 27th, 2007. Its mission is to consecutively rendezvous with and observe the two largest bodies in the asteroid belt, Vesta and Ceres. It has already completed over a year's worth of direct observations of Vesta (spanning from early 2011 through late 2012) and is currently on a cruise trajectory to Ceres, where it will begin scientific observations in mid-2015. Achieving this data collection required careful planning and execution from all spacecraft teams. Dawn's Orbit Determination (OD) team was tasked with accurately predicting the trajectory of the Dawn spacecraft during the Vesta science phases, and also determining the parameters of Vesta to support future science orbit design. The future orbits included the upcoming science phase orbits as well as the transfer orbits between science phases. In all, five science phases were executed at Vesta, and this paper will describe some of the OD team contributions to the planning and execution of those phases.

gravity gradient torque↗

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) tracking and orbit determination

Analysis results were derived using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System to determine the orbit of TDRS-East. A batch weighted least-squares algorithm is used to fit the Bilateration Ranging Transponder system tracking measurements. Six state parameters (position and velocity components) and the solar radiation pressure coefficient are estimated. The solutions are obtained by fitting the data over 34 hr arcs that overlap by 10 hr. Ephemerides are generated over the 34 hr arcs and then compared over the overlapping regions. The position differences indicate the consistency of the solutions and give a measure of their accuracy. The effect of the modeling of perturbative forces (solar radiation pressure, nonspherical geopotential field) on these results are studied. Error analysis is performed using the ORAN program to estimate the effect of force-model errors and measurement-related errors on the TDRS-East ephemeris.

Teles, J.↗

Elemental composition of organic aerosol: The gap between ambient and laboratory measurements

Abstract A large data set including surface, aircraft, and laboratory observations of the atomic oxygen‐to‐carbon (O:C) and hydrogen‐to‐carbon (H:C) ratios of organic aerosol (OA) is synthesized and corrected using a recently reported method. The whole data set indicates a wide range of OA oxidation and a trajectory in the Van Krevelen diagram, characterized by a slope of −0.6, with variation across campaigns. We show that laboratory OA including both source and aged types explains some of the key differences in OA observed across different environments. However, the laboratory data typically fall below the mean line defined by ambient observations, and little laboratory data extend to the highest O:C ratios commonly observed in remote conditions. OA having both high O:C and high H:C are required to bridge the gaps. Aqueous‐phase oxidation may produce such OA, but experiments under realistic ambient conditions are needed to constrain the relative importance of this pathway.

Chen, Qi↗