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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Redshift inference from the combination of galaxy colours and clustering in a hierarchical Bayesian model – Application to realistic N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Photometric galaxy surveys constitute a powerful cosmological probe but rely on the accurate characterization of their redshift distributions using only broad-band imaging, and can be very sensitive to incomplete or biased priors used for redshift calibration. A hierarchical Bayesian model has recently been developed to estimate those from the robust combination of prior information, photometry of single galaxies, and the information contained in the galaxy clustering against a well-characterized tracer population. In this work, we extend the method so that it can be applied to real data, developing some necessary new extensions to it, especially in the treatment of galaxy clustering information, and we test it on realistic simulations. After marginalizing over the mapping between the clustering estimator and the actual density distribution of the sample galaxies, and using prior information from a small patch of the survey, we find the incorporation of clustering information with photo-z’s tightens the redshift posteriors and overcomes biases in the prior that mimic those happening in spectroscopic samples. The method presented here uses all the information at hand to reduce prior biases and incompleteness. Even in cases where we artificially bias the spectroscopic sample to induce a shift in mean redshift of $\Delta \bar{z} \approx 0.05,$ the final biases in the posterior are $\Delta \bar{z} \lesssim 0.003.$ This robustness to flaws in the redshift prior or training samples would constitute a milestone for the control of redshift systematic uncertainties in future weak lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Redshift inference from the combination of galaxy colours and clustering in a hierarchical Bayesian model

Powerful current and future cosmological constraints using high-precision measurements of the large-scale structure of galaxies and its weak gravitational lensing effects rely on accurate characterization of the redshift distributions of the galaxy samples using only broad-band imaging. In this paper, we present a framework for constraining both the redshift probability distributions of galaxy populations and the redshifts of their individual members. We use a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) which provides full posterior distributions on those redshift probability distributions, and, for the first time, we show how to combine survey photometry of single galaxies and the information contained in the galaxy clustering against a well-characterized tracer population in a robust way. One critical approximation turns the HBM into a system amenable to efficient Gibbs sampling. We show that in the absence of photometric information, this method reduces to commonly used clustering redshift estimators. Using a simple model system, we show how the incorporation of clustering information with photo-$z$’s tightens redshift posteriors, and can overcome biases or gaps in the coverage of a spectroscopic prior. The method enables the full propagation of redshift uncertainties into cosmological analyses, and uses all the information at hand to reduce those uncertainties and associated potential biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Direct nonparametric multimessenger constraints on the equation of state of cold dense nuclear matter

We utilize the now substantial amount of astrophysical observations of neutron stars (NSs), along with perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) calculations at high density, to directly constrain the NS equation of state (EOS). To this end, we construct nonparametric EOS priors by using Gaussian processes trained on 75 EOSs, which include models with either hadrons, hyperons, or quarks at high densities. We create a prior using the full EOS sample (model agnostic), and one prior for each EOS family to test model discrimination. We introduce a novel inference approach, which allows the simultaneous sampling of intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of binary NS mergers, as well as a nonparametric equation of state. We showcase this method in a Bayesian updating scheme by first performing a complete analysis of the binary NS merger event GW170817 with minimal assumptions, and sequentially adding information from x-ray and radio NS observations, along with pQCD calculations. Besides providing standard constraints, such as the pressure at twice nuclear saturation density 𝑝⁡(2⁢𝜌 sat ) = 4.3$^{+0.6}_{−0.6}$ × 10 34 dyne/cm 2 , at 95% confidence level, for the model agnostic prior, our methodology shows how the choice of EOS families used in conditioning changes the inferred astrophysical properties of the EOS, namely tidal deformability and maximum supported NS mass. We find hyperonic priors predicting higher tidal deformabilities for a 1.4⁢𝑀 ⊙ NS, and hadronic priors being preferred by the considered astrophysical data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Geometric GNNs for charged particle tracking at GlueX

Nuclear physics experiments are aimed at uncovering the fundamental building blocks of matter. The experiments involve high-energy collisions that produce complex events with many particle trajectories. Tracking charged particles resulting from collisions in the presence of a strong magnetic field is critical to enable the reconstruction of particle trajectories and precise determination of interactions. It is traditionally achieved through combinatorial approaches that scale worse than linearly as the number of hits grows. Since particle hit data naturally form a point cloud and can be structured as graphs, graph neural networks (GNNs) emerge as an intuitive and effective choice for this task. In this study, we evaluate the GNN model for track finding on the data from the GlueX experiment at Jefferson Lab. We use simulation data to train the model and test on both simulation and real GlueX measurements. We demonstrate that GNN-based track finding outperforms the currently used traditional method at GlueX in terms of segment-based efficiency at a fixed purity while providing faster inferences. We show that the GNN model can achieve significant speedup by processing multiple events in batches, which exploits the parallel computation capability of graphical processing units (GPUs). Finally, we compare the GNN implementation on GPU and field-programmable gate array and describe the trade-off.

batched GNN pipeline↗

Fuel convergence sensitivity in indirect drive implosions

In inertial confinement fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility, a spherical shell of deuterium–tritium fuel is imploded in an attempt to reach the conditions needed for fusion, self-heating, and eventual ignition. Since theory and simulations indicate that ignition efficacy in 1D improves with increasing imploded fuel convergence ratio, it is useful to understand the sensitivity of the scale-invariant fuel convergence on all measurable or inferable 1D parameters. In this paper, we develop a simple isobaric and isentropic compression scaling model incorporating sensitivity to the in-flight adiabat inferred from shock strengths, to measured implosion velocity, and to known initial ablator and fuel aspect ratio and mass ratio. The model is first benchmarked to 1D implosion simulations spanning a variety of relevant implosion designs. We then use the model to compare compressibility trends across all existing indirect-drive layered implosion data from the facility spanning three ablators [CH, carbon (C), and Be], for which in-flight fuel adiabats varied from 1.6 to 5 by varying the number of drive shocks from 2 to 4, peak implosion velocities varied by 1.4×, capsule radii by 50%, and initial fuel aspect ratios by 1.4×. We find that the strength of the first shock is the dominant contributor setting the maximum fuel convergence. We also observe additional sensitivities to successive shock strengths and fuel aspect ratios that improve the agreement between the expected and measured compression for carbon and Be designs with adiabats above 3. A principal finding is that the adiabat 2.5 C-shell designs exhibit less convergence than CH-shell designs of similar inferred in-flight adiabat.

Landen, O. L. (ORCID:0000000214998217)↗

SymbolNet: neural symbolic regression with adaptive dynamic pruning for compression

Abstract Compact symbolic expressions have been shown to be more efficient than neural network (NN) models in terms of resource consumption and inference speed when implemented on custom hardware such as field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), while maintaining comparable accuracy (Tsoi et al 2024 EPJ Web Conf. 295 09036). These capabilities are highly valuable in environments with stringent computational resource constraints, such as high-energy physics experiments at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. However, finding compact expressions for high-dimensional datasets remains challenging due to the inherent limitations of genetic programming (GP), the search algorithm of most symbolic regression (SR) methods. Contrary to GP, the NN approach to SR offers scalability to high-dimensional inputs and leverages gradient methods for faster equation searching. Common ways of constraining expression complexity often involve multistage pruning with fine-tuning, which can result in significant performance loss. In this work, we propose S y m b o l N e t , a NN approach to SR specifically designed as a model compression technique, aimed at enabling low-latency inference for high-dimensional inputs on custom hardware such as FPGAs. This framework allows dynamic pruning of model weights, input features, and mathematical operators in a single training process, where both training loss and expression complexity are optimized simultaneously. We introduce a sparsity regularization term for each pruning type, which can adaptively adjust its strength, leading to convergence at a target sparsity ratio. Unlike most existing SR methods that struggle with datasets containing more than O ( 10 ) inputs, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on the LHC jet tagging task (16 inputs), MNIST (784 inputs), and SVHN (3072 inputs).

Tsoi, Ho Fung (ORCID:0000000225502184)↗

Bridging the gap between experiments and simulations using machine learning

The physics of inertial confinement fusion is rich and complex. Simulation codes that are used to design experiments are computationally expensive and lack the predictive capability required for extensive parameter exploration in search of a high-performing design for laser direct drive. In this work we use deep learning to build a fast emulator of experiments. To facilitate the development of the deep-learning model, an autoencoder is used to reduce the dimensionality of the input space. Two deep learning models are developed. One model is trained on a vast array of simulation data and is subsequently calibrated to expensive and limited experimental data using a technique known as “transfer learning.” The other model is trained on a statistical model and is subsequently calibrated using experimental data. A comparative study of the two predictive models is carried out. The models potentially reproduce key experimental observables with high accuracy and unprecedented inference times relative to those achieved with simulation codes. These models facilitate rapid exploration of a high dimensional input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. VIII. Physical Interpretation of the Polarized Ring

Abstract In a companion paper, we present the first spatially resolved polarized image of Sagittarius A* on event horizon scales, captured using the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometric array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here we interpret this image using both simple analytic models and numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. The large spatially resolved linear polarization fraction (24%–28%, peaking at ∼40%) is the most stringent constraint on parameter space, disfavoring models that are too Faraday depolarized. Similar to our studies of M87*, polarimetric constraints reinforce a preference for GRMHD models with dynamically important magnetic fields. Although the spiral morphology of the polarization pattern is known to constrain the spin and inclination angle, the time-variable rotation measure (RM) of Sgr A* (equivalent to ≈46° ± 12° rotation at 228 GHz) limits its present utility as a constraint. If we attribute the RM to internal Faraday rotation, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be counterclockwise, contrary to inferences based on historical polarized flares, and no model satisfies all polarimetric and total intensity constraints. On the other hand, if we attribute the mean RM to an external Faraday screen, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be clockwise, and one model passes all applied total intensity and polarimetric constraints: a model with strong magnetic fields, a spin parameter of 0.94, and an inclination of 150°. We discuss how future 345 GHz and dynamical imaging will mitigate our present uncertainties and provide additional constraints on the black hole and its accretion flow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lunar Neutral Exposphere Properties from Pickup Ion Analysis

Composition and structure of neutral constituents in the lunar exosphere can be determined through measurements of phase space distributions of pickup ions borne from the exosphere [1]. An essential point made in an early study [ 1 ] and inferred by recent pickup ion measurements [2, 3] is that much lower neutral exosphere densities can be derived from ion mass spectrometer measurements of pickup ions than can be determined by conventional neutral mass spectrometers or remote sensing instruments. One approach for deriving properties of neutral exospheric source gasses is to first compare observed ion spectra with pickup ion model phase space distributions. Neutral exosphere properties are then inferred by adjusting exosphere model parameters to obtain the best fit between the resulting model pickup ion distributions and the observed ion spectra. Adopting this path, we obtain ion distributions from a new general pickup ion model, an extension of a simpler analytic description obtained from the Vlasov equation with an ion source [4]. In turn, the ion source is formed from a three-dimensional exospheric density distribution, which can range from the classical Chamberlain type distribution to one with variable exobase temperatures and nonthermal constituents as well as those empirically derived. The initial stage of this approach uses the Moon's known neutral He and Na exospheres to deriv e He+ and Na+ pickup ion exospheres, including their phase space distributions, densities and fluxes. The neutral exospheres used are those based on existing models and remote sensing studies. As mentioned, future ion measurements can be used to constrain the pickup ion model and subsequently improve the neutral exosphere descriptions. The pickup ion model is also used to estimate the exosphere sources of recently observed pickup ions on KAGUYA [3]. Future missions carrying ion spectrometers (e.g., ARTEMIS) will be able to study the lunar neutral exosphere with great sensitivity, yielding the necessary ion velocity spectra needed to further analysis of parent neutral exosphere properties.

Hartle, R. E.↗

PROVABGS: The Probabilistic Stellar Mass Function of the BGS One-percent Survey

We present the probabilistic stellar mass function (pSMF) of galaxies in the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS), observed during the One-percent Survey. The One-percent Survey was one of DESI's survey validation programs conducted from 2021 April to May, before the start of the main survey. It used the same target selection and similar observing strategy as the main survey and successfully observed the spectra and redshifts of 143,017 galaxies in the r < 19.5 magnitude-limited BGS Bright sample and 95,499 galaxies in the fainter surface-brightness- and color-selected BGS Faint sample over z < 0.6. We derive pSMFs from posteriors of stellar mass, M*, inferred from DESI photometry and spectroscopy using the Hahn et al. PRObabilistic Value-Added BGS (PROVABGS) Bayesian spectral energy distribution modeling framework. We use a hierarchical population inference framework that statistically and rigorously propagates the M* uncertainties. Furthermore, we include correction weights that account for the selection effects and incompleteness of the BGS observations. We present the redshift evolution of the pSMF in BGS, as well as the pSMFs of star-forming and quiescent galaxies classified using average specific star formation rates from PROVABGS. Overall, the pSMFs show good agreement with previous stellar mass function measurements in the literature. Our pSMFs showcase the potential and statistical power of BGS, which in its main survey will observe >100 × more galaxies. Moreover, we present the statistical framework for subsequent population statistics measurements using BGS, which will characterize the global galaxy population and scaling relations at low redshifts with unprecedented precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Can Simple Machine Learning Tools Extend and Improve Temperature-Based Methods to Infer Streambed Flux?

Temperature-based methods have been developed to infer 1D vertical exchange flux between a stream and the subsurface. Current analyses rely on fitting physically based analytical and numerical models to temperature time series measured at multiple depths to infer daily average flux. These methods have seen wide use in hydrologic science despite strong simplifying assumptions including a lack of consideration of model structural error or the impacts of multidimensional flow or the impacts of transient streambed hydraulic properties. We performed a “perfect-model experiment” investigation to examine whether regression trees, with and without gradient boosting, can extract sufficient information from model-generated subsurface temperature time series, with and without added measurement error, to infer the corresponding exchange flux time series at the streambed surface. Using model-generated, synthetic data allowed us to assess the basic limitations to the use of machine learning; further examination of real data is only warranted if the method can be shown to perform well under these ideal conditions. We also examined whether the inherent feature importance analyses of tree-based machine learning methods can be used to optimize monitoring networks for exchange flux inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrogen Dioxide Observations from the Geostationary Trace Gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTaso) Airborne Instrument: Retrieval Algorithm and Measurements During DISCOVER-AQ Texas 2013

The Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) airborne instrument is a test bed for upcoming air quality satellite instruments that will measure backscattered ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared light from geostationary orbit. GeoTASO flew on the NASA Falcon aircraft in its first intensive field measurement campaign during the Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) Earth Venture Mission over Houston, Texas, in September 2013. Measurements of backscattered solar radiation between 420 and 465 nm collected on 4 days during the campaign are used to determine slant column amounts of NO2 at 250 m x 250 m spatial resolution with a fitting precision of 2.2 x 10(exp 15) molecules/sq cm. These slant columns are converted to tropospheric NO2 vertical columns using a radiative transfer model and trace gas profiles from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Total column NO2 from GeoTASO is well correlated with ground-based Pandora observations (r = 0.90 on the most polluted and cloud-free day of measurements and r = 0.74 overall), with GeoTASO NO2 slightly higher for the most polluted observations. Surface NO2 mixing ratios inferred from GeoTASO using the CMAQ model show good correlation with NO2 measured in situ at the surface during the campaign (r = 0.85). NO2 slant columns from GeoTASO also agree well with preliminary retrievals from the GEO-CAPE Airborne Simulator (GCAS) which flew on the NASA King Air B200 (r = 0.81, slope = 0.91). Enhanced NO2 is resolvable over areas of traffic NOx emissions and near individual petrochemical facilities.

Aerosol Sensor Optimization↗

Evidence for quark-matter cores in massive neutron stars

The theory governing the strong nuclear force—quantum chromodynamics—predicts that at sufficiently high energy densities, hadronic nuclear matter undergoes a deconfinement transition to a new phase of quarks and gluons. Although this has been observed in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions, it is currently an open question whether quark matter exists inside neutron stars. By combining astrophysical observations and theoretical ab initio calculations in a model-independent way, we find that the inferred properties of matter in the cores of neutron stars with mass corresponding to 1.4 solar masses (M ⊙ ) are compatible with nuclear model calculations. However, the matter in the interior of maximally massive stable neutron stars exhibits characteristics of the deconfined phase, which we interpret as evidence for the presence of quark-matter cores. For the heaviest reliably observed neutron stars with mass M ≈ 2M ⊙ , the presence of quark matter is found to be linked to the behaviour of the speed of sound cs in strongly interacting matter. If the conformal bound ${c}_{\rm{s}}^{2}\le 1/3$ is not strongly violated, massive neutron stars are predicted to have sizable quark-matter cores. This finding has important implications for the phenomenology of neutron stars and affects the dynamics of neutron star mergers with at least one sufficiently massive participant.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Properties of QBO and SAO Generated by Gravity Waves

We present an extension for the 2D (zonal mean) version of our Numerical Spectral Mode (NSM) that incorporates Hines' Doppler spread parameterization (DSP) for small scale gravity waves (GW). This model is applied to describe the seasonal variations and the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (SAO and QBO). Our earlier model reproduced the salient features of the mean zonal circulation in the middle atmosphere, including the QBO extension into the upper mesosphere inferred from UARS measurements. In the present model we incorporate also tropospheric heating to reproduce the upwelling at equatorial latitudes associated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation that affects significantly the dynamics of the stratosphere as Dunkerton had pointed out. Upward vertical winds increase the period of the QBO observed from the ground. To compensate for that, one needs to increase the eddy diffusivity and the GW momentum flux, bringing the latter closer to values recommended in the DSP. The QBO period in the model is 30 months (mo), which is conducive to synchronize this oscillation with the seasonal cycle of solar forcing. Multi-year interannual oscillations are generated through wave filtering by the solar driven annual oscillation in the zonal circulation. Quadratic non-linearities generate interseasonal variations to produce a complicated pattern of variability associated with the QBO. The computed temperature amplitudes for the SAO and QBO are in substantial agreement with observations at equatorial and extratropical latitudes. At high latitudes, however, the observed QBO amplitudes are significantly larger, which may be a signature of propagating planetary waves not included in the present model. The assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium not being imposed, we find that the effects from the vertical Coriolis force associated with the equatorial oscillations are large for the vertical winds and significant for the temperature variations even outside the tropics but are relatively small for the zonal winds.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Dynamic Medical Risk Assessment Supported by Inference Networks

The Human Research Program's next generation risk model, the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT), provides researchers with estimates of astronaut medical and health risk. MEDPRATs Susceptibility Inference Network (SIN) facilitates the dynamic component of this tool. The SIN provides MEDPRAT with a "memory" that allows the system to use knowledge of what simulation events have occurred to alter the representative probability that future simulation events will occur during a given trial. The SIN allows for the medical events being simulated to be related to, and influence the likelihood of one another, providing a more robust risk estimate. We present initial work of our efforts to mathematically quantify and represent these dependent relationships between medical events.

McIntyre, L.↗

A Parameter-masked Mock Data Challenge for Beyond-two-point Galaxy Clustering Statistics

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Krause, Elisabeth [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (U↗

In-Situ Inference: Bringing Advanced Data Science Into Exascale Simulations

As simulations generate ever-increasing amounts of data, there are correspondingly richer opportunities for analysis and scientific discovery - discoveries that will be missed if most of the data must be discarded before it is analyzed. Because future exascale architectures will be increasingly storage-limited, it will not be possible to save the vast majority of simulation data for later analysis, requiring analysis to occur “in-situ” within the simulation. However, existing in-situ data analysis frameworks provide little or no support for one of the most sophisticated forms of data science: probabilistic statistical modeling or uncertainty quantification (UQ), and the accompanying challenge of inference - fitting those statistical models to massive simulation output. Our goal is to develop the fundamental statistical algorithms and computer science needed to perform statistical inference in-situ (in HPC simulations) to the full stream of data those simulations generate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗