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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $\$181$ Mg –1 CO 2 e to more than $\$444$ Mg –1 CO 2 e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Furthermore, our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Two-Stage Quantum Reinforcement Learning Method for Multi-Objective Transmission Switching

Multi-objective transmission switching (MO-TS) problems involve the strategic reconfiguration of network topology to simultaneously optimize multiple objectives. As the system scale increases, finding feasible solutions becomes increasingly challenging due to the problem's nonlinearity and high computational complexity. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a two-stage quantum reinforcement learning method that leverages potential quantum advantages for MO-TS. In the first stage, candidate switching lines are identified using a graph-theoretical approach to reduce the problem's dimensionality. The second stage introduces a quantum-classical reinforcement learning framework, where a learnable measurement-based CNN-ResVQC architecture is developed to effectively reduce the input dimension for quantum processing, mitigate vanishing gradients, and enhance trainability while improving the quantum circuit's flexibility in modeling complex decision policies for MO-TS. Numerical studies on IEEE 14-bus, 57-bus, and 118-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves superior training stability and faster convergence with approximately 1% of the network parameters required by classical algorithms, highlighting its effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability. Furthermore, the practicality is validated through its stable convergence under three common quantum noise channels.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Acceleration of the matrix multiplication of Radiance three phase daylighting simulations with parallel computing on heterogeneous hardware of personal computer

Building designers are increasingly relying on complex fenestration systems to reduce energy consumed for lighting and HVAC in low energy buildings. Radiance, a lighting simulation program, has been used to conduct daylighting simulations for complex fenestration systems. Depending on the configurations, the simulation can take hours or even days using a personal computer. This paper describes how to accelerate the matrix multiplication portion of a Radiance three-phase daylight simulation by conducting parallel computing on heterogeneous hardware of a personal computer. The algorithm was optimized and the computational part was implemented in parallel using OpenCL. The speed of new approach was evaluated using various daylighting simulation cases on a multicore central processing unit and a graphics processing unit. Based on the measurements and analysis of the time usage for the Radiance daylighting simulation, further speedups can be achieved by using fast I/O devices and storing the data in a binary format.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Rethinking the Future Grid: Integrated Nuclear Renewable Energy Systems: Preprint

The U.S. DOE is supporting research and development that could lead to more efficient utilization of clean energy generation sources, including renewable and nuclear options, to meet both grid demand and thermal energy needs in the industrial sector. One concept under consideration by the DOE-NE and DOE-EERE is tighter coupling of nuclear and renewable energy sources in a manner that better optimizes energy use for the combined electricity, industrial manufacturing, and transportation sectors. This integration concept has been referred to as a 'hybrid system' that is capable of apportioning thermal and electrical energy to first meet the grid demand (with appropriate power conversion systems), then utilizing excess thermal and, in some cases, electrical energy to drive a process that results in an additional product.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

ADMS Evaluation Platform

Deploying an ADMS or looking to optimize its value? NREL offers a low-cost, low-risk evaluation platform for assessing ADMS performance. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed a vendor-neutral advanced distribution management system (ADMS) evaluation platform and is expanding its capabilities. The platform uses actual grid-scale hardware, large-scale distribution system models, and advanced visualization to simulate realworld conditions for the most accurate ADMS evaluation and experimentation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Highlights and Lessons Learned from Army Re-tuning™ Pilot Demonstrations

The Army has aggressively pursued policy and energy efficiency projects and programs in recent years to meet Federal mandates and reduction goals organizationally (EISA 2007, AR 420-1, 42 U.S.C. § 8253), resulting in a 9.6% reduction in energy use intensity (EUI) from FY2015 to FY2017. Despite these successes, the Army remains the largest consumer of electricity in the Federal government and spent approximately $1.1 billion in energy-related costs in FY2017. Many of the low-cost/no-cost conservation measures have been deployed, so finding additional savings and projects that either (a) are cost effective or (b) can be bundled with more costly capital improvement projects to improve life cycle cost effectiveness, is imperative for the Army. Leveraging building control systems (BCS) and optimizing building performance through re-tuning represents a great opportunity for the Army. In 2016, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in support of the Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy and Environment), i.e. ASA (IEE), was tasked in 2016 with a multi-year study and pilot demonstration to develop a business case for the potential energy and cost reduction benefits from re-tuning efforts for the Army.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fire safety practices in the Shuttle and the Space Station Freedom

The Shuttle reinforces its policy of fire-preventive measures with onboard smoke detectors and Halon 1301 fire extinguishers. The forthcoming Space Station Freedom will have expanded fire protection with photoelectric smoke detectors, radiation flame detectors, and both fixed and portable carbon dioxide fire extinguishers. Many design and operational issues remain to be resolved for Freedom. In particular, the fire-suppression designs must consider the problems of gas leakage in toxic concentrations, alternative systems for single-failure redundancy, and commonality with the corresponding systems of the Freedom international partners. While physical and engineering requirements remain the primary driving forces for spacecraft fire-safety technology, there are, nevertheless, needs and opportunities for the application of microgravity combustion knowledge to improve and optimize the fire-protective systems.

Friedman, Robert↗

An economic analysis of the role of materials, system engineering, and performance in electrochemical carbon dioxide conversion to formate

The development of technologies that utilize carbon dioxide is important to mitigating climate change. The electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is one technology that can utilize greenhouse gasses that would be otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere by producing chemicals and fuels from carbon dioxide and electricity. Significant progress has been made in the experimental performance of carbon dioxide reduction systems with novel catalyst designs, new materials, and systems engineering; however, no work has linked such changes in stack design and materials to capital costs for the stack itself. In this study, we present an analysis that accounts for and analyzes the impacts of alternative materials and system architectures on manufactured costs of carbon dioxide reduction stacks, thus providing a framework to understand exactly how these advances impact the at-scale capital costs of these systems. Specifically, we consider the impact that the addition of a catholyte buffer layer has on an electrolyzer reducing carbon dioxide to formate, finding that the cost of manufacturing this part only increases stack costs by about $30/m 2 at high manufacturing rates, while previous work finds that this part improves system performance. This work shows that the links between system performance, materials, and costs are nonlinear, and that achieving low-cost scalability requires optimization of not just performance parameters but also the use of low-cost and highly scalable materials. These results bridge experimental and techno-economic analysis of processes for carbon dioxide reduction, informing researchers by providing a quantifiable estimate of the impact of advances in electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction technology on manufactured stack capital costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

GreenThrift: Optimizing Carbon and Cost for Flexible Residential Loads

Reducing buildings’ carbon emissions is an important sustainability challenge. While scheduling flexible building loads has been previously used for a variety of grid and energy optimizations, carbon footprint reduction using such flexible loads poses new challenges since such methods need to balance both energy and carbon costs while also reducing user inconvenience from delaying such loads. This paper highlights the potential conflict between electricity prices and carbon emissions and the resulting trade-offs in carbon-aware and cost-aware load scheduling. To address this trade-off, we propose GreenThrift, a home automation system that leverages the scheduling capabilities of smart appliances and knowledge of future carbon intensity and cost to reduce both the carbon emissions and costs of flexible energy loads. At the heart of GreenThrift is an optimization technique that automatically computes schedules based on user configurations and preferences. We evaluate the effectiveness of GreenThrift using real-world carbon intensity data, electricity prices, and load traces from multiple locations and across different scenarios and objectives. Our results show that GreenThrift can replicate the offline optimal and retains 97% of the savings when optimizing the carbon emissions. Moreover, we show how GreenThrift can balance the conflict between carbon and cost and retain 95.3% and 85.5% of the potential carbon and cost savings, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Product Diversification Options for Sustainability of the Monticello and Prairie Island Nuclear Power Plants

The objective of this work was to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of hybrid options that could be integrated with light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) in order to improve the viability and sustainability of existing LWRs through product diversification by utilizing nuclear energy not only to produce grid electricity but to also produce carbon free products such as hydrogen, ammonia or synthetic fuels. Much of the analysis herein could be generally applied to any LWR (high temperature steam electrolysis- HTSE design), but hydrogen demand and the optimization of the HTSE was completed with specific collaboration and data from Xcel Energy’s Prairie Island and Monticello nuclear generating stations and the surrounding market and logistics potential in the greater Minneapolis region. Xcel Energy has set aggressive goals with regards to decarbonization, including an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 2005 levels, by 2030 and 100% carbon free by 2050. Other TEAs regarding hydrogen production with nuclear energy have been completed in collaboration with other utility companies previously. Besides being the first TEA in this regard specific to Xcel Energy and the surrounding markets and logistics, this TEA adds to the previously completed TEAs by providing the most up to date and state of the art analysis and optimization of the hydrogen production plant integrated with nuclear power (NPP-HTSE).

08 HYDROGEN↗

ORNL Progress Report on Microreactor Functional Containment Economics

A summary of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) initial contributions to the economic and functional containment evaluation approach for microreactors is presented. A final report will be completed at the end of 2022. This initial progress report does not represent a final product or an expression of a complete technical analysis. Initial contributions from ORNL can be categorized into two parts: (1) description of functional containment as a design optimization tool, and (2) summary of high level technology concepts for an evaluation of economic and functional containment analysis. Additionally, the initial portion of a functional containment evaluation is presented for a generic high temperature gas reactor technology. Remaining tasks include completing the functional containment evaluation by connecting economic and consequence metrics, as well as performing the same effort for other select reactor technologies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

On choosing the resolution of normative models

Long time horizon normative models are frequently used for policy analysis, strategic planning, and system analysis. Choosing the granularity of the temporal or spatial resolution of such models is an important modeling decision, often having a first order impact on model results. This type of decision is frequently made by modeler judgment, specifically when the predictive power of alternative choices cannot be tested. In this paper, we show how the implicit tradeoffs modelers make in these formulation decisions, in particular in the tradeoff between the accuracy of representation enabled by the available data and model parsimony, may be addressed with established information theoretic ideas. The paper provides guidance for modelers making these tradeoffs or, in certain cases, enables explicit tests for assessing appropriate levels of resolution. Here, we focus on optimization based normative models in the discussion, and draw our examples from the energy and climate domain.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗

Insights on Nuclear Energy from Long-Term System Models: Inter-Model Comparison Results

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗

Comparative study of air-conditioning energy use of four office buildings in China and USA

Energy use in buildings has great variability. In order to design and operate low energy buildings as well as to establish building energy codes and standards and effective energy policy, it is crucial to understand and quantify key factors influencing building energy performance. Here, this study investigates air-conditioning (AC) energy use of four office buildings in four locations: Beijing, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Berkeley. Building simulation was employed to quantify the influences of key factors, including climate, building envelope and occupant behavior. Through simulation of various combinations of the three influencing elements, it is found that climate can lead to AC cooling consumption differences by almost two times, while occupant behavior resulted in the greatest differences (of up to three times) in AC cooling consumption. The influence of occupant behavior on AC energy consumption is not homogeneous. Under similar climates, when the occupant behavior in the building differed, the optimized building envelope design also differed. In conclusion, the optimal building envelope should be determined according to the climate as well as the occupants who use the building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Formulation and solution approach for calibrating activity-based travel demand model-system via microsimulation

This study addresses the problem of calibrating utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based travel demand model-systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model-system’s parameters prior to their application in transportation planning, policy making, and operations. However, calibration of activity-based model-systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider the fundamental inter-dependencies among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other purely simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this study, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model-systems and calibrating aggregate statistics such as activity shares, mode shares, time-dependent & mode-specific OD flows, and time-dependent & mode-specific sensor counts. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expectations of the aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function —that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model-system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex, highly nonlinear, and potentially has multiple-minima. Lastly, we show —through a real-world application— that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model-systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Travel Survey integrated with BCs (Justice40) data covering transportation insecurity, environmental burden, social vulnerability, health vulnerability, and climate and disaster risk burden. After creating this unique database, descriptive analysis and modeling are used to analyze the data and predict EHV ownership in the future. Specifically, we use a new method that combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with a stacking model named PSO-Stacking, which incorporates heterogeneous base learners of machine learning and deep learning. PSO applies a customized objective function to select the optimal hyperparameters for heterogeneous learners within the stacking model, effectively addressing challenges such as multicollinearity, data imbalance, nonlinearity, and overfitting. The proposed solution covers more accurate results than standard benchmark models for EHV ownership in BCs and non-BCs. In addition, the results of the PSO-Stacking method are explained using the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations technique. Results show a negative correlation between the BCs indicators, that is, higher transportation insecurity associated with lower EHV ownership. Furthermore, BCs have higher future climate risk scores, diesel particulate matter levels, and PM2.5 in the air than non-BCs because of higher conventional vehicle ownership. These communities are at higher risk and can benefit from electrification, EV infrastructure, and EV policies to address environmental challenges.

Aslam, Zeeshan [ORNL]↗