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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Incongruity, incongruity resolution, and mental states: The measure and modification of situational awareness and control

The research reported here describes the process of induction of various mental states. Our goals were to measure and to manipulate both the behavioral and the neurological correlates of particular mental states that have previously been demonstrated to be either beneficial or deleterious to in-flight performance situations. The experimental paradigm involved developing a context of which the participants were aware, followed by the introduction of an incongruity into that context. The empirical questions involved how the incongruity was resolved and the consequent effects on mental state. The dependent variables were measures of both the short-term ERP changes and the longer-term brain mapping indications of predominant mental states. The mission of NASA Flight Management Division and Human/Automation Integration Branch centers on the understanding and improvement of interaction between a complex system and a human operator. Specifically, the goal is improved efficiency through better operative procedures and control strategies. More efficient performance in demanding flight environments depends on improved situational awareness and replanning for fault management.

Derks, Peter L.↗

State-Level Trends in Renewable Energy Procurement via Solar Installation versus Green Electricity

In recent years, options for procuring renewable energy have increased, ranging from rooftop solar installation to utility green pricing to Community Choice Aggregation. These options vary in terms of costs and benefits to the consumer as well as grid integration implications. However, little is known regarding how the presence of a wide range of voluntary utility-scale renewable procurement options as well as their growth could affect adoption of distributed residential solar. To examine this relationship, we fit a two-stage least squares random effects regression model on panel data from 2016 to 2019 for all fifty US states plus the District of Columbia, controlling for variables that measure state-level policies, economic factors, and resource availability. Although there was no evidence of a strong relationship between demand for utility-scale and distributed options across all states, the state-level correlations suggest a wide variation between states including a positive, zero or negative relationship between utility-scale and distributed generation.

consumer demand↗

Haze processing of atmospheric particles during wintertime in the Indo-Gangetic Plains

The impacts of haze on visibility, air quality, and climate are not well quantified due to a lack of understanding of the evolution of the mixing state and phase state of atmospheric particles during haze processing. The variability of the mixing state of atmospheric particles contributes significantly to uncertainties associated with the estimated aerosol radiative forcing. We collected particle samples in January 2018 from the highly polluted Indo-Gangetic plain during hazy conditions to study haze-processed particles. Single particle analysis using multi-modal micro-spectroscopy techniques revealed an abundance (40–70% by number) of potassium-rich sulfate particles from biomass-burning influenced smoke. Tilted view imaging showed that most of the organic particles that had inorganic potassium and sulfate inclusions were liquid-like while those without inclusions were more semi-solid. High-resolution mass spectrometry analysis revealed a significant presence of organosulfates and nitroxy-organosulfates in the morning samples (24%) compared to the afternoon samples (9%), despite higher relative humidity in the afternoon. Overall, our results highlight the significant contribution of both organic and inorganic sulfate to the total particulate sulfur budget during haze processing in winter, when anthropogenic emissions such as household burning, agricultural burning, and vehicular emissions are major contributors to particle mass.

Mathai, Susan [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗

NLSCIDNT user's guide maximum likehood parameter identification computer program with nonlinear rotorcraft model

A nonlinear, maximum likelihood, parameter identification computer program (NLSCIDNT) is described which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight test data. The optimal estimates of the parameters (stability and control coefficients) are determined (identified) by minimizing the negative log likelihood cost function. The minimization technique is the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which behaves like the steepest descent method when it is far from the minimum and behaves like the modified Newton-Raphson method when it is nearer the minimum. Twenty-one states and 40 measurement variables are modeled, and any subset may be selected. States which are not integrated may be fixed at an input value, or time history data may be substituted for the state in the equations of motion. Any aerodynamic coefficient may be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial function of selected 'expansion variables'.

Source record↗

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗

Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems

Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Anomalous Low State of LMC X-3

Archival RXTE ASM and PCA observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal a dramatic and extended low state lasting from December 8, 2003 until March 18, 2004, unprecedented both in its Low luminosity (Lx(2-10keV)=4.2x 1035 ergs s-1, approximately 4 times fainter than ever before seen from LMC X-3 in its low/hard state, and representing 0.15% of its X-ray luminosity during the high/soft state); and Long duration (approximately equal to 100 days, as compared with 5-20 days for 'normal' low/hard state excursions). During this anomalous low state no significant variability is observed on timescales of days-weeks, and the spectrum is well described by a simple power law with index 1.7 plus or minus 0.2. We examine the variability characteristics of LMC X-3 before and after this event using conventional and topological methods, and show that with the exception of the anomalous low state itself the long-term behavior of the source in topological phase space can be completely described in terms of a well-understood nonlinear dynamics system known as the Duffing oscillator, implying that the accretion disk in LMC X-3 is a driven, dissipative system with two solutions competing for control of its time evolution. This work shows that dynamical information and constraints revealed by topological analysis methods can provide a valuable addition to traditional studies of accretion disk behavior.

Smale, A. P.↗

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗

Hopping transport in SrTiO 3 /Nd 1–x TiO 3 /SrTiO 3 heterostructures

Electronic transport near the insulator-metal transition is investigated in the molecular beam epitaxy-grown SrTiO 3 /Nd 1–x TiO 3 /SrTiO 3 heterostructures using temperature dependent magnetotransport measurements. It was found that Nd vacancies introduce localized electronic states resulting in variable range hopping transport at low temperatures. At a fixed Nd-vacancy concentration, a crossover from Mott to Efros-Shklovskii variable range hopping transport was observed with decreasing temperature. With increasing disorder, a sign reversal of magnetoresistance from positive to negative was observed revealing interplay between intra-state interaction and the energy dependence of the localization length. Furthermore, these findings highlight the important role of stoichiometry when exploring intrinsic effects using heterostructure and interfaces in addition to offering broad opportunities to tailor low temperature transport using nonstoichiometry defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Necessary conditions for a multistage bolza- mayer problem involving control variables and having inequality and finite equation constraints

A multiplier rule and analogues of the Weierstrass and Clebsch conditions are developed for a multistage Bolza-Meyer calculus of variations problems. The number of stages is fixed, but partition points defining state boundaries are variable. Discontinuities are allowed in variables finite equations and inequalities, as well as differential equations, all of which involve control variables. An appendix summarizes some of the results obtained by C. H. Denbow, as modified by R. W. hunt, for a generalized Bolza problem. The appendix is independent of the rest of the paper.

Differential equation↗

Transformation theory and translation factors in inelastic atomic collisions

It is shown through the use of transformation theory that unique semiclassical atomic scattering states which obey the asymptotic conditions of formal scattering theory can be derived by transforming 'nontraveling' atomic states, ie., states whose coordinate variables are referred to a stationary origin, to frames at rest with respect to the incoming or outgoing particles. An overview of the problem of properly defining such scattering states is presented. The operator which carries out the necessary transformation from inertial to noninertial frames is derived and its properties are discussed. The relation of this transformation operator to the 'translation factor' discussed in the literature is presented. The application of this operator to transform the time-dependent Schroedinger equation from an inertial to a noninertial frame is presented and shown to introduce new terms in the resulting equation. The implications of these new terms to scattering problems are discussed.

Schmid, G. B.↗

On dynamical systems approaches and methods in f ( R ) cosmology

We discuss dynamical systems approaches and methods applied to flat Robertson-Walker models in f ( R )-gravity. We argue that a complete description of the solution space of a model requires a global state space analysis that motivates globally covering state space adapted variables. This is shown explicitly by an illustrative example, f ( R ) = R + α R {sup 2}, α > 0, for which we introduce new regular dynamical systems on global compactly extended state spaces for the Jordan and Einstein frames. This example also allows us to illustrate several local and global dynamical systems techniques involving, e.g., blow ups of nilpotent fixed points, center manifold analysis, averaging, and use of monotone functions. As a result of applying dynamical systems methods to globally state space adapted dynamical systems formulations, we obtain pictures of the entire solution spaces in both the Jordan and the Einstein frames. This shows, e.g., that due to the domain of the conformal transformation between the Jordan and Einstein frames, not all the solutions in the Jordan frame are completely contained in the Einstein frame. We also make comparisons with previous dynamical systems approaches to f ( R ) cosmology and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Confined-exotic-matter wormholes with no gluing effects—Imaging supermassive wormholes and black holes

We classify wormholes endowed with redshift effects and finite mass into three types. Type I wormholes have their radial pressure dying out faster, as one moves away from the throat, than any other component of the stress-energy and thus violate the least the local energy conditions. In type II (resp. III) wormholes the radial and transverse pressures are asymptotically proportional and die out faster (resp. slower) than the energy density. We introduce a novel and generalizable method for deriving, with no cutoff in the stress-energy or gluing, a class of each of the three wormhole types. We focus on type I wormholes and construct different asymptotically flat solutions with finite, upper- and lower-bounded, mass M. It is observed that the radial pressure is negative, and the null energy condition is violated, only inside a narrow layer, adjacent to the throat, of relative spacial extent ε. Reducing the relative size of the layer, without harming the condition of traversability, yields an inverse square law of ε versus M for supermassive wormholes. We show that the diameter of the shadow of this type I supermassive wormhole overlaps with that of the black hole candidate at the center of the Milky Way and that the recent derivation, using the up-to-date millimeter-wavelength very long baseline interferometry made in Astrophys. J. (795) (2014) 134 [\arXivid(1409.4690)], remains inconclusive. We show that redshift-free wormholes, with positive energy density, have one of their barotropic equations of state in the phantom regime (at least in the region adjacent to the throat), have their stress energy tensor traceless, and are anisotropic. They are all type III wormholes having their variable equations of state approaching 1 and −1 at spatial infinity. We also introduce a new approach for deriving new redshift-free wormholes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Three-dimensional charge density wave in the dual heavy fermion system UPt 2 Si 2

Heavy fermion liquids offer via their Kondo lattice diverse possibilities for exotic ground states. Using variable-temperature atomic pair distribution function analysis, we study the local atomic structure of the "dual" heavy fermion liquid UPt 2 Si 2 , which exhibits antiferromagnetism consistent with localized 5f-electron states and transport properties characteristic to itinerant 5f-"spd" hybridized electron systems. We show that UPt 2 Si 2 exhibits periodic lattice distortions (PLDs) involving both uranium and platinum atoms that are characteristic to three-dimensional charge density waves. Here, the temperature evolution of the PLDs tracks that of the transport and magnetic properties, suggesting the presence of little-known 5f-electron-lattice interactions. We argue that PLDs in heavy fermion liquids in general, and in particular in UPt 2 Si 2 , appear as new degrees of freedom that entangle competing electronic states and, as such, must be accounted for when their rich physics is considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implicit Formulation of Muscle Dynamics in OpenSim

Astronauts lose bone and muscle mass during spaceflight. Exercise countermeasure is the primary method for counteracting bone and muscle mass loss in space. New spacecraft exercise device concepts are currently being developed for the NASAs new crew exploration vehicle. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) uses computational modeling to help determine if the new exercise devices will be effective as countermeasures. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project is developing the ability to utilize predictive simulation to provide insight into the change in kinematics and kinetics with a change in device and gravitational environment (1-g versus 0-g). For example, in space exercise the subject's body weight is applied in addition to the loads prescribed for musculoskeletal maintenance. How and where these loads are applied obviously directly impacts bone and tissue loads. Additionally, due to space vehicle structural requirements, exercise devices are often placed on vibration isolation systems. This changes the apparent impedance or stiffness of the device as seen by the user. Data collection under these conditions is often impractical and limited. Predictive modeling provides a means to have a virtual subject to test hypotheses. Predictive simulation provides a virtual subject for which we are able to perform studies such as sensitivity to device loading and vibration isolation without the need for laboratory kinematic or kinetic test data.Direct Collocation optimization provides an efficient means to perform task based optimization and predictive modeling. It is relatively straight forward to structure a physical exercise task in a Direct Collocation mathematical formulation: perform a motion such that you start at an initial pose, achieve a given amount of deflection i.e a squat, return to the initial pose, and minimize muscle activation cost. Direct Collocation is advantageous in that it does not require numerical integration to evaluate the objective function. Instead, the system dynamics are transformed to discrete time and the optimizer is constrained such that the solution is not considered to be a valid unless the dynamic equations are satisfied at all time points. The simulation and optimization are effectively done simultaneously. Due to the implicit integration, time steps can be more coarse than in a differential equation solver. In a gait scenario this means that that the model constraints and cost function are evaluated at 100 nodes in the gait cycle versus 10,000 integration steps in a variable-step forward dynamic simulation. Furthermore, no time is wasted on accurate simulations of movements that are far from the optimum. Constrained optimization algorithms require a Jacobian matrix that contains the partial derivatives of each of the dynamic constraints with respect to of each of the state and control variables at all time points. This is a large but sparse matrix. An implicit dynamics formulation requires computation of the dynamic residuals f as a function of the states x and their derivatives, and controls u:f(x, dxdt, u) 0If the dynamics of musculoskeletal system are formulated implicitly, the Jacobian elements are often available analytically, eliminating the need for numerical differentiation; this is obviously computationally advantageous. Additionally, implicit formulation of musculoskeletal dynamics do not suffer from singularities from low mass bodies, zero muscle activation, or other stiff system or

physical exercise↗

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 1 Sensor Data v2-1

This is the version 2-1 Level 1 (L1) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. L1 data are close to raw, but are units-transformed and have out-of-instrument-bounds, out-of-service, and outlier flags added. Duplicates and missing data are removed but otherwise these data are not filtered, and have not been subject to any additional algorithmic or human QA/QC. Any scientific analyses of L1 data should be performed with care. **This dataset will be updated quarterly with new data for the duration of the project** This dataset includes: - An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc. - Site- and year-specific folders, each holding variable-specific CSV (comma separated value) data files for each site and plot in that year. - Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site. - Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are normally logged every 15 minutes. Please see v2-1 TEMPEST L1 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning. The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods. * Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021 * TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022 * TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023 * TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024 This dataset was updated 2026-03-12: (i) data now go through 2025-12-31 (previous end was 2025-06-30) and (ii) dataset and file names updated to “…v2-1” (previously was “v2-0”).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distributed Constrained Optimization with Semicoordinate Transformations

Recent work has shown how information theory extends conventional full-rationality game theory to allow bounded rational agents. The associated mathematical framework can be used to solve constrained optimization problems. This is done by translating the problem into an iterated game, where each agent controls a different variable of the problem, so that the joint probability distribution across the agents moves gives an expected value of the objective function. The dynamics of the agents is designed to minimize a Lagrangian function of that joint distribution. Here we illustrate how the updating of the Lagrange parameters in the Lagrangian is a form of automated annealing, which focuses the joint distribution more and more tightly about the joint moves that optimize the objective function. We then investigate the use of "semicoordinate" variable transformations. These separate the joint state of the agents from the variables of the optimization problem, with the two connected by an onto mapping. We present experiments illustrating the ability of such transformations to facilitate optimization. We focus on the special kind of transformation in which the statistically independent states of the agents induces a mixture distribution over the optimization variables. Computer experiment illustrate this for &sat constraint satisfaction problems and for unconstrained minimization of NK functions.

Macready, William↗