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Report for Oregon State University Reporting Period: June 2016 to June 2017

The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DESIGN AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF A HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPERCRITICAL METHANE-OXYGEN BURNER

Directly heated supercritical oxy-fuel power cycles have potential to offer a higher thermal efficiency and lower pollutant emissions compared to existing power cycles. Recent thermodynamic analysis of the cycle performed by several groups including the UTEP-Air Liquide research team show that combustion in the vicinity of 300 bar pressure and 1000-1400 K temperature allows for relatively high system efficiencies while operating within the limit of practical combustor materials. However, the realization of directly heated supercritical power cycle requires combustion systems be designed to operate in supercritical conditions and at temperature far below the blowout limit of conventional flames (above 1500 K), where not only the thermodynamic properties but also the combustion properties and kinetics are unexplored. To minimize these knowledge gaps, some intermediate pressure ranges (up to 20 bar) are experimented and modeled using a CFD simulation tool. The knowledge obtained from the high pressure test will assist in understanding the combustion chamber pressurization mechanism, ignition and flame behavior at the elevated pressure. This is a systematic first step in testing at higher pressures of 100 and 300 bar pressures. The primary objective of this dissertation is to perform qualitative analysis on oxy-methane combustion at high pressure (< 20 bar) and compare to CFD model for future scale up to supercritical condition. For modeling of the system, a commercial computational fluid dynamics simulation tool, ANSYS Fluent, is used. The inlet conditions for the CFD analysis are obtained from the experiments. The geometry used for the study is same as the test apparatus and operates at the same power ratings. The expertise gained from this experimental study is important to accurately and safely design combustors at elevated pressures up to 300bar. A high pressure methane-oxygen fuel burner and combustor have been developed to accommodate oxycombustion environment. A detailed CFD analysis is conducted to understand the flame length and cooling phenomenon inside the combustor first at pressures up to 20 bar to compare to experiments then at supercritical pressure. The first part of the dissertation compares CFD results with high pressure burner experiments at pressures up to 20 bar. The test is conducted for 30 s within 150 kW – 250 kW thermal power inputs. Afterwards, based on the simulation results a cooling system is proposed for steady state high pressure combustion experiments. It is observed from the experimental study that the proposed pressurization mechanism able to pressurize the vessel up to 20 bar. It is also determined that the current combustor can operate up to 20 bar for short term. The steady state CFD simulation demonstrates that a cooling system must be incorporated for continuous operation. Additionally, the study focuses on the ignition delay due to added diluent during the combustion process. It is observed that as the carbon dioxide recirculation ratio increases the ignition delay time increases. Later part of the dissertation provides a preliminary guideline for developing a laboratory scale supercritical oxy combustor. The employment of supercritical fluid in gas turbine is fairly a new concept. Hence, there are many questions that need to be answered. During this dissertation study an investigation is performed to understand the impact of equation of state in the supercritical combustion simulation. Finally, a CFD model for developing supercritical oxy-methane burner and the combustor, incorporating real gas model, is presented. Although Lee-Kesler equation of state provides better accuracy than Peng Robinson, due to the computational time Peng Robinson equation of state is used for the simulation. It is found that existing knowledge is not enough to simulate combustion at supercritical phase. Detailed combustion chemistry at the supercritical condition must be developed and should be incorporated to accurately replicate the combustion phenomenon.

Chowdhury, ASM Arifur Rahim↗

Experimental Data and Analysis for a New Irradiation Facility

A new experimental facility is being developed for materials irradiation and testing at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Details of this facility have been presented before. A prototype of this facility, the Thermosyphon Test Loop (TSTL), has been built, and experimental data have been obtained and analyzed. The purpose of the tests was to establish a safe operating envelope for actual fueled experiments in a HFIR experimental facility. Both steady-state and transient experiments were conducted. The data will also be used to validate computer simulations of the thermosyphon so that those codes can be used for future safety-basis calculations. This paper presents a summary of the TSTL experimental data and analysis. A report with all the data and analyses will be published in the near future. Experimental data from 51 tests in the TSTL have been obtained. This extensive set of high quality data can be used to benchmark codes with boiling and condensing phenomena. This new proposed irradiation facility allows materials to be irradiated without concern for HFIR coolant contamination (from specimen failures) as it uses a separate coolant, that is isolated (except thermally) from the HFIR primary coolant. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

Studying Wind Loading on CSP Collectors to Improve Performance and Reliability

Electricity generation through Concentrating Solar-thermal Power (CSP) adds the advantage of thermal energy storage and heat production. CSP collector costs constitute nearly one-third of total plant costs. Managing wind loading, especially dynamic wind loading caused by the turbulent wind flow, is a significant design challenge. Traditional collector designs rely on wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations, which do not fully capture dynamic effects. Here, we provide an overview of NREL's activities on wind loading on CSP collectors, aiming to improve their reliability and cost-efficiency. We present insights from field measurements at operational parabolic trough and power-tower CSP plants. Over two years, we measured turbulent wind fields and resulting structural loads in a parabolic trough plant, revealing wind, turbulence, and collector field interactions. Similar measurements are ongoing at the Crescent Dunes heliostat field. These campaigns show how atmospheric turbulence, wind direction, and collector orientation affect dynamic wind loading. Upwind collector structures can generate turbulent structures, causing fluctuating loads at downstream collectors, impacting fatigue lifetime and optical efficiency. Preliminary results indicate that interior collectors experience higher turning moments than those at the edges, suggesting higher drive wear. At Crescent Dunes, we use instrumented heliostats at the field's edge and interior to study the translation of turbulent wind to dynamic structural loads. The campaign is still ongoing, and we will present first findings. Another focus of our work is tying the experimental wind loading findings to optical performance of the collectors, using simulation tools. For example, we derive torsional errors of the parabolic troughs - the angular offset from the sun position along a collector row. This error is impacted by wind-induced mirror deformations. Future work will focus on continuing the measurement efforts and combining them with computational fluid dynamic simulations. By providing detailed field measurements and validated models, our efforts aim to enhance understanding of wind loading on CSP collectors, improving their structural integrity and optical performance.

CSP↗

MULTIDIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF REACTING FLOW IN A NON-PREMIXED ROTATING DETONATION ENGINE

Over the last two decades, detonation based propulsion has received a great deal of attention as a potential means to achieve significant improvement in the performance of air-breathing and rocket engines. Detonative combustion mode is particularly interesting due to the resulting pressure gain from reactants to products, faster heat release, decreased entropy generation, more available work and higher thrust compared to conventional deflagrative combustion. Rotating detonation engine (RDE) is one such novel combustor concept. Realistic RDE configurations utilize separate fuel and air injection schemes, hence are not perfectly premixed. Moreover, RDE performance is governed by a large number of design parameters and operating conditions. In this context, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has the potential to enhance the understanding of RDE combustion and aid future development/optimization of this technology. In the present work, a CFD model was developed to simulate a representative non-premixed RDE combustor. Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed for the full combustor geometry (including the separate fuel and air injection ports), with hydrogen as fuel and air as the oxidizer. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) was incorporated to achieve a trade-off between model accuracy and computational expense. A finite-rate chemistry model along with a 10-species detailed kinetic mechanism was employed to describe the H2-Air combustion chemistry. Two operating conditions were simulated, corresponding to the same global equivalence ratio of unity but different fuel and air mass flow rates. For both conditions, the capability of the model to capture the essential detonation wave dynamics was assessed. A validation study was performed against experimental data available on detonation wave frequency/height, reactant fill height, oblique shock angle, axial pressure distribution in the channel, and fuel/air plenum pressure. The CFD model predicted the sensitivity of these wave characteristics to the operating conditions with good accuracy, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The present CFD model offers a potential capability to perform rapid design space exploration and/or performance optimization studies for realistic full-scale RDE configurations.

Pal, Pinaki↗

Futureproofing through 2035 for the AI and HPC Power Density Trend

HPC and AI are businesses necessitating growth for providing performance improvement with increased power and cooling. As HPC and AI computers and their supporting facilities approach utility scale with a frequency of technology innovation outpacing utility and construction timelines, understanding and designing for this trend has become critical. This paper will provide historical trend data for facilities and compute racks, relate power trend data to cooling technology capabilities, and reason through constraints impacting anticipated future power densities to aid the reader in futureproofing a facility’s power and cooling systems through the mid-2030’s.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Error mitigation in variational quantum eigensolvers using tailored probabilistic machine learning

Quantum computing technology has the potential to revolutionize the simulation of materials and molecules in the near future. A primary challenge in achieving near-term quantum advantage is effectively mitigating the noise effects inherent in current quantum processing units (QPUs). This challenge is also decisive in the context of quantum-classical hybrid schemes employing variational quantum eigensolvers (VQEs) that have attracted significant interest in recent years. In this paper, we present a method that employs parametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) within an active learning framework to mitigate noise in quantum computations, focusing on VQEs. Our approach, grounded in probabilistic machine learning, exploits a custom prior based on the VQE ansatz to capture the underlying correlations between VQE outputs for different variational parameters, thereby enhancing both accuracy and efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a two-site Anderson impurity model and a eight-site Heisenberg model, using the IBM open-source quantum computing framework, Qiskit, showcasing substantial improvements in the accuracy of VQE outputs while reducing the number of direct QPU energy evaluations. This paper contributes to the ongoing efforts in quantum-error mitigation and optimization, bringing us a step closer to realizing the potential of quantum computing in quantum matter simulations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Portable Acceleration of CMS Computing Workflows with Coprocessors as a Service

Computing demands for large scientific experiments, such as the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC, will increase dramatically in the next decades. To complement the future performance increases of software running on central processing units (CPUs), explorations of coprocessor usage in data processing hold great potential and interest. Coprocessors are a class of computer processors that supplement CPUs, often improving the execution of certain functions due to architectural design choices. We explore the approach of Services for Optimized Network Inference on Coprocessors (SONIC) and study the deployment of this as-a-service approach in large-scale data processing. In the studies, we take a data processing workflow of the CMS experiment and run the main workflow on CPUs, while offloading several machine learning (ML) inference tasks onto either remote or local coprocessors, specifically graphics processing units (GPUs). With experiments performed at Google Cloud, the Purdue Tier-2 computing center, and combinations of the two, we demonstrate the acceleration of these ML algorithms individually on coprocessors and the corresponding throughput improvement for the entire workflow. This approach can be easily generalized to different types of coprocessors and deployed on local CPUs without decreasing the throughput performance. We emphasize that the SONIC approach enables high coprocessor usage and enables the portability to run workflows on different types of coprocessors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance: Agile Co-simulation for Cyber Energy System Security (ACCESS), Model Advancements for Resilience Analysis

Agile Co-simulation for Cyber Energy System Security (ACCESS) is a co-simulation platform developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The primary high-level use-case for ACCESS is to study existing or new cyber-physical critical infrastructure systems, with a heavy emphasis on 1) systems that utilize communication networks, and 2) studies that seek to understand cyber-related system impacts. ACCESS is currently used for several energy system resilience projects at LLNL. In the Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance (ERMA) project, ACCESS is used in the Modeling for Metric Calculation task (specifically, subtask 4.3, Communications and Cyber Modeling) to model and simulate the cyber and communication system aspects of Defense Critical Electric Infrastructure (DCEI) systems, with a focus on computing specific communication system metrics that can impact system resilience and mission performance. Simulated communication system performance will be fed back to other ERMA system components so that mission performance can be evaluated holistically. This report describes several enhancements to the ACCESS platform that were implemented during the execution of the ERMA project in support of reslience analysis. This includes the addition of new models and subsystems, enhancements to existing models, and integration with external systems. The remainder of this report is structured as follows. In Section 2, a brief background description of the ACCESS platform is provided, including an outline of ACCESS components, example usecases, and a set of communication network resilience metrics that can be computed with ACCESS. Section 3 describes the ACCESS model enhancements for ERMA in detail. Finally, Section 4 briefly outlines future integration opportunities between ACCESS and project participant capabilities identified during the progression of the project.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring Allosteric Pathways of a V-Type Enzyme with Dynamical Perturbation Networks

Elucidation of the allosteric pathways in proteins is a computational challenge that strongly benefits from combination of atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and coarse-grained analysis of the complex dynamical network of chemical interactions based on graph theory. Here, we introduce and assess the performances of the dynamical perturbation network analysis of allosteric pathways in a prototypical V-type allosteric enzyme. Dynamical atomic contacts obtained from MD simulations are used to weight the allosteric protein graph, which involves an extended network of contacts perturbed by the effector binding in the allosteric site. The outcome showed good agreement with previously reported theoretical and experimental extended studies and it provided recognition of new potential allosteric spots that can be exploited in future mutagenesis experiments. Lastly, overall, the dynamical perturbation network analysis proved to be a powerful computational tool, complementary to other network-based approaches that can assist the full exploitation of allosteric phenomena for advances in protein engineering and rational drug design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fault Survivability of Lightweight Operating Systems for exascale

Concern is growing in the High-Performance Computing community regarding the reliability of proposed exascale systems. Current research has shown that the expected reliability of these machines will greatly reduce their scalability. In constrast to current fault tolerance methods whose reliability focus is only the application, this project investigates the benefits integrating reliability mechcanisms in the operating system and runtime, as well as the appli- cation. More specifically, this project has three broad contributions in the field: First, using failure logs from current leadership-class high-performance computing systems, we outline the failures common on these large-scale systems. Second, we describe a novel memory pro- tection mechcanism capable of protecting common observed failures that uses the similarity inherrant in many OS and applications state, thereby reducing overheads. Finally, using an analogy with OS jitter, we develop a highly effecient simulator capable predicting the performance of resilience methods at the scales expected for future extreme-scale systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analytical Cost Metrics : Days of Future Past

As we move towards the exascale era, the new architectures must be capable of running the massive computational problems efficiently. Scientists and researchers are continuously investing in tuning the performance of extreme-scale computational problems. These problems arise in almost all areas of computing, ranging from big data analytics, artificial intelligence, search, machine learning, virtual/augmented reality, computer vision, image/signal processing to computational science and bioinformatics. With Moore’s law driving the evolution of hardware platforms towards exascale, the dominant performance metric (time efficiency) has now expanded to also incorporate power/energy efficiency. Therefore the major challenge that we face in computing systems research is: “how to solve massive-scale computational problems in the most time/power/energy efficient manner?”

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Computing Annual Report 2024

In fiscal year (FY) 2024, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) took a major leap forward with the completed full buildout of Kestrel, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's newest high-performance computing (HPC) system. Kestrel is already supporting science across the portfolio, bringing roughly 44 petaflops of computing power, which is more than five times the capacity of our previous supercomputer, Eagle. By delivering greater GPU capacity, Kestrel enables faster progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and opens new avenues in energy research - from defining long-term planning scenarios to accommodate a growing power system to material discovery to improving energy efficiency in photovoltaics (PV). Across the portfolio, research is being accelerated by Kestrel's impressive power. During FY24, 427 projects and more than 700 researchers used NREL's HPC, supporting the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy across 13 funding areas. Through these collaborations, researchers produced more than 450 technical outputs, including 195 articles in peer-reviewed publications, pushing the boundaries of science and engineering. This year's report features new sections spotlighting the expanding roles of Artificial Intelligence and Accelerated Computing. We also introduce an early career section to celebrate the accomplishments of our up-and-coming researchers, whose pioneering work is shaping the future of energy. We hope you enjoy the new insights and discoveries highlighted in these pages.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Convergence of the multigrid reduction in time algorithm for the linear elasticity equations

This paper presents some recent advances for parallel-in-time methods applied to linear elasticity. With recent computer architecture changes leading to stagnant clock speeds, but ever increasing numbers of cores, future speedups will be available through increased concurrency. Thus, sequential algorithms, such as time stepping, will suffer a bottleneck. This paper explores multigrid reduction in time (MGRIT) for an important application area, linear elasticity. Previously, efforts at parallel-in-time for elasticity have experienced difficulties, for example, the beating phenomenon. As a result, practical parallel-in-time algorithms for this application area currently do not exist. This paper proposes some solutions made possible by MGRIT (e.g., slow temporal coarsening and FCF-relaxation) and, more importantly, a different formulation of the problem that is more amenable to parallel-in-time methods. Using a recently developed convergence theory for MGRIT and Parareal, we show that the changed formulation of the problem avoids the instability issues and allows the reduction of the error using two temporal grids. We then extend our approach to the multilevel case, where we demonstrate how slow temporal coarsening improves convergence. Finally, the paper ends with supporting numerical results showing a practical algorithm enjoying speedup benefits over the sequential algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗