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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finding simplicity: unsupervised discovery of features, patterns, and order parameters via shift-invariant variational autoencoders *

Abstract Recent advances in scanning tunneling and transmission electron microscopies (STM and STEM) have allowed routine generation of large volumes of imaging data containing information on the structure and functionality of materials. The experimental data sets contain signatures of long-range phenomena such as physical order parameter fields, polarization, and strain gradients in STEM, or standing electronic waves and carrier-mediated exchange interactions in STM, all superimposed onto scanning system distortions and gradual changes of contrast due to drift and/or mis-tilt effects. Correspondingly, while the human eye can readily identify certain patterns in the images such as lattice periodicities, repeating structural elements, or microstructures, their automatic extraction and classification are highly non-trivial and universal pathways to accomplish such analyses are absent. We pose that the most distinctive elements of the patterns observed in STM and (S)TEM images are similarity and (almost-) periodicity, behaviors stemming directly from the parsimony of elementary atomic structures, superimposed on the gradual changes reflective of order parameter distributions. However, the discovery of these elements via global Fourier methods is non-trivial due to variability and lack of ideal discrete translation symmetry. To address this problem, we explore the shift-invariant variational autoencoders (shift-VAEs) that allow disentangling characteristic repeating features in the images, their variations, and shifts that inevitably occur when randomly sampling the image space. Shift-VAEs balance the uncertainty in the position of the object of interest with the uncertainty in shape reconstruction. This approach is illustrated for model 1D data, and further extended to synthetic and experimental STM and STEM 2D data. We further introduce an approach for training shift-VAEs that allows finding the latent variables that comport to known physical behavior. In this specific case, the condition is that the latent variable maps should be smooth on the length scale of the atomic lattice (as expected for physical order parameters), but other conditions can be imposed. The opportunities and limitations of the shift VAE analysis for pattern discovery are elucidated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigation of Two Fermi -LAT Gamma-Ray Blazars Coincident with High-energy Neutrinos Detected by IceCube

After the identification of the gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056 as the first compelling IceCube neutrino source candidate, we perform a systematic analysis of all high-energy neutrino events satisfying the IceCube realtime trigger criteria. We find one additional known gamma-ray source, the blazar GB6 J1040+0617, in spatial coincidence with a neutrino in this sample. The chance probability of this coincidence is 30% after trial correction. For the first time, we present a systematic study of the gamma-ray flux, spectral and optical variability, and multi-wavelength behavior of GB6 J1040+0617 and compare it to TXS 0506+056. We find that TXS 0506+056 shows strong flux variability in the Fermi-LAT gamma-ray band, being in an active state around the arrival of IceCube-170922A, but in a low state during the archival IceCube neutrino flare in 2014/15. In both cases the spectral shape is statistically compatible ($\leq 2\sigma$) with the average spectrum showing no indication of a significant relative increase of a high-energy component. While the association of GB6 J1040+0617 with the neutrino is consistent with background expectations, the source appears to be a plausible neutrino source candidate based on its energetics and multi-wavelength features, namely a bright optical flare and modestly increased gamma-ray activity. Finding one or two neutrinos originating from gamma-ray blazars in the given sample of high-energy neutrinos is consistent with previously derived limits of neutrino emission from gamma-ray blazars, indicating the sources of the majority of cosmic high-energy neutrinos remain unknown.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Towards non-contact pollution monitoring in sewers with hyperspectral imaging

Monitoring water quality in sewers is challenging, particularly because state-of-the-art technologies require contact with the raw wastewater. The presence of fat, oil, grease, and solids makes automated grab sampling difficult and causes sensor fouling. To overcome these limitations, non-contact methods based on light reflectance, such as hyperspectral imaging (HSI), are gaining attention. However, HSI has never been tested for raw wastewater. To assess its accuracy for measuring pollution, we developed a laboratory setup and performed targeted experiments with a combination of raw and diluted wastewater, as well as synthetic turbidity stock solutions. We measured seven pollution variables: chemical oxygen demand, turbidity, dissolved organic compounds, ammonium, total nitrogen, phosphate, and sulphates. We used automated pixel selection and partial least squares regression to retrieve pollution information from the hyperspectral images. Our results, based on 144 samples, suggest that HSI can estimate pollution levels with a precision in the range of state-of-the-art absorbance spectrophotometric methods. Additionally, we found that the combination of pixel and wavelength selection, enabled by the hyperspectral data structure, significantly influences the performance of partial least square modelling. Overall, our findings indicate that HSI is a promising technology for non-contact monitoring of water quality in raw wastewater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preliminary Figures of Merit for Isotope Ratio Measurements: The Liquid Sampling-Atmospheric Pressure Glow Discharge Microplasma Ionization Source Coupled to an Orbitrap Mass Analyzer

ABSTRACT In order to meet a growing need for fieldable mass spectrometer systems for precise elemental and isotopic analyses, the liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) has a number of very promising characteristics. One key set of attributes that await validation deals with the performance characteristics relative to isotope ratio precision and accuracy. Due to its availability and prior experience with this research team, the initial evaluation of isotope ratio (IR) performance was performed on a Thermo Scientific Exactive Orbitrap instrument. While the mass accuracy and resolution performance for orbitrap analyzers are very well documented, no detailed evaluations of the IR performance have been published. Efforts described here involve two variables: the inherent IR precision and accuracy delivered by the LSAPGD microplasma and the inherent IR measurement qualities of orbitrap analyzers. Important to the IR performance, the various operating parameters of the orbitrap sampling interface, HCD dissociation stage, and ion injection/data acquisition have been evaluated. The IR performance for a range of other elements, including natural, depleted, and enriched uranium isotopes was determined. In all cases the precision and accuracy are degraded when measuring low abundance (<0.1% isotope fractions). In the best case, IR precision on the order of 0.1 %RSD can be achieved, with values of 1-3 %RSD observed for low-abundance species. The results suggest that the LSAPGD is a very good candidate for field deployable MS analysis and that the high resolving powers of the orbitrap may be complemented with a here-to-fore unknown capacity to deliver high-precision isotope ratios.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Array of Graphene Variable Capacitors on 100 mm Silicon Wafers for Vibration-Based Applications

Highly flexible, electrically conductive freestanding graphene membranes hold great promise for vibration-based applications. This study focuses on their integration into mainstream semiconductor manufacturing methods. We designed a two-mask lithography process that creates an array of freestanding graphene-based variable capacitors on 100 mm silicon wafers. The first mask forms long trenches terminated by square wells featuring cone-shaped tips at their centers. The second mask fabricates metal traces from each tip to its contact pad along the trench and a second contact pad opposite the square well. A graphene membrane is then suspended over the square well to form a variable capacitor. The same capacitor structures were also built on 5 mm by 5 mm bare dies containing an integrated circuit underneath. We used atomic force microscopy, optical microscopy, and capacitance measurements in time to characterize the samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nonlinear vs. linear biasing in Trp-cage folding simulations

Biased simulations have great potential for the study of slow processes, including protein folding. Atomic motions in molecules are nonlinear, which suggests that simulations with enhanced sampling of collective motions traced by nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods may perform better than linear ones. In this study, we compare an unbiased folding simulation of the Trp-cage miniprotein with metadynamics simulations using both linear (principle component analysis) and nonlinear (Isomap) low dimensional embeddings as collective variables. Folding of the mini-protein was successfully simulated in 200 ns simulation with linear biasing and non-linear motion biasing. The folded state was correctly predicted as the free energy minimum in both simulations. We found that the advantage of linear motion biasing is that it can sample a larger conformational space, whereas the advantage of nonlinear motion biasing lies in slightly better resolution of the resulting free energy surface. In terms of sampling efficiency, both methods are comparable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantification of Oxygen Vacancies in SrFe0.5Cr0.5O3−δ Thin Films: Correlating Lattice Expansion with Oxidation State Variability

Oxygen vacancies (VO), even in the dilute regime, can significantly impact the physical and chemical properties of complex oxides. It is however challenging to reliably detect and adequately quantify such defects in thin film samples where the VO concentration and distribution may further vary in response to interfacial strain. Here, we present a method to quantify VO concentrations in SrFe0.5Cr0.5O3−δ (SFCO) epitaxial thin films. Through coherent Bragg rod analysis, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and theoretical modeling, we systematically correlate the c-axis lattice expansion detected in SFCO films with a VO concentration gradient. Our results reveal a nearly linear relationship between oxygen off-stoichiometry and out-of-plane lattice expansion in coherently strained SFCO films, with δ increasing from 0.32 to 0.52 and the lattice expanding by ∼1.0%. Moreover, a significant decrease in Cr oxidation state (from Cr5+ to Cr3+) is observed as the VO concentration increases, while the Fe oxidation state remains fixed at Fe3+. Our findings provide a reliable way to quantify oxygen stoichiometry in complex oxides, offering a pathway to design materials with precisely tailored structure–property relationships.

Hossain, Mohammad Delower↗

Influence of weather on gobbling activity of male wild turkeys

Gobbling activity of Eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris; hereafter, turkeys) has been widely studied, focusing on drivers of daily variation. Weather variables are widely believed to influence gobbling activity, but results across studies are contradictory and often equivocal, leading to uncertainty in the relative contribution of weather variables to daily fluctuations in gobbling activity. Previous works relied on road-based auditory surveys to collect gobbling data, which limits data consistency, duration, and quantity due to logistical difficulties associated with human observers and restricted sampling frames. Development of new methods using autonomous recording units (ARUs) allows researchers to collect continuous data in more locations for longer periods of time, providing the opportunity to delve into factors influencing daily gobbling activity. We used ARUs from 1 March to 31 May to detail gobbling activity across multiple study sites in the southeastern United States during 2014–2018. We used state-space modeling to investigate the effects of weather variables on daily gobbling activity. Our findings suggest rainfall, greater wind speeds, and greater temperatures negatively affected gobbling activity, whereas increasing barometric pressure positively affected gobbling activity. Therefore, when using daily gobbling activity to make inferences relative to gobbling chronology, reproductive phenology, and hunting season frameworks, stakeholders should recognize and consider the potential influences of extended periods of inclement weather.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Cloudiness transitions within shallow marine clouds near the Azores

Marine stratocumulus clouds are low, persistent, liquid phase clouds that cover large areas and play a significant role in moderating the climate by reflecting large quantities of incoming solar radiation. The deficiencies in simulating these clouds in global climate models are widely recognized. Much of the uncertainty arises from sub-grid scale variability in the cloud albedo that is not accurately parameterized in climate models. The Clouds, Aerosol and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP–MBL) observational campaign and the ongoing ARM site measurements on Graciosa Island in the Azores aim to sample the Northeast Atlantic low cloud regime. These data represent, the longest continuous research quality cloud radar/lidar/radiometer/aerosol data set of open-ocean shallow marine clouds in existence. Data coverage from CAP–MBL and the series of cruises to the southeast Pacific culminating in VOCALS will both be of sufficient length to contrast the two low cloud regimes and explore the joint variability of clouds in response to several environmental factors implicated in cloudiness transitions. Our research seeks to better understand cloud system processes in an underexplored but climatologically important maritime region. Our primary goal is an improved physical understanding of low marine clouds on temporal scales of hours to days. It is well understood that aerosols, synoptic-scale forcing, surface fluxes, mesoscale dynamics, and cloud microphysics all play a role in cloudiness transitions. However, the relative importance of each mechanism as a function of different environmental conditions is unknown. To better understand cloud forcing and response, we are documenting the joint variability of observed environmental factors and associated cloud characteristics. In order to narrow the realm of likely parameter ranges, we assess the relative importance of parameter conditions based primarily on two criteria: how often the condition occurs (frequency) and to what degree varying that condition within its typically observed range affects cloud characteristics (magnitude of impact given the condition). In this manner we will be able to address the relative importance of individual factors within a multivariate range of environmental conditions. We will determine the relative roles of the thermodynamic, aerosol, and synoptic environmental factors on low cloud and drizzle formation and lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radionuclide gas transport through nuclear explosion-generated fracture networks

Underground nuclear weapon testing produces radionuclide gases which may seep to the surface. Barometric pumping of gas through explosion-fractured rock is investigated using a new sequentially-coupled hydrodynamic rock damage/gas transport model. Fracture networks are produced for two rock types (granite and tuff) and three depths of burial. The fracture networks are integrated into a flow and transport numerical model driven by surface pressure signals of differing amplitude and variability. There are major differences between predictions using a realistic fracture network and prior results that used a simplified geometry. Matrix porosity and maximum fracture aperture have the greatest impact on gas breakthrough time and window of opportunity for detection, with different effects between granite and tuff simulations highlighting the importance of accurately simulating the fracture network. In particular, maximum fracture aperture has an opposite effect on tuff and granite, due to different damage patterns and their effect on the barometric pumping process. From stochastic simulations using randomly generated hydrogeologic parameters, normalized detection curves are presented to show differences in optimal sampling time for granite and tuff simulations. In conclusion, seasonal and location-based effects on breakthrough, which occur due to differences in barometric forcing, are stronger where the barometric signal is highly variable.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Parallel derivative-free optimization for simulation-based design of behind-the-meter energy systems

In this work, the integrated design and dispatch of behind-the-meter or distributed resources (e.g. stationary battery storage and solar PV generation) is considered. A simulation-based framework is employed, generating high-fidelity results with closed-loop predictive control at a fine resolution, at the expense of high computational cost (several minutes to a few hours per design point). To address this challenge, parallel derivative-free design methods are considered. Four methods are compared, including state-of-the-art surrogate-based methods (Radial-Basis Functions and Gaussian processes) and sampling strategies, an evolutionary-based method, and a simple sequential grid refinement method. As a case study, two types of design problem with increasing complexity are considered, namely, the design of behind-the-meter resources (three design variables) and the inclusion of grid capacity (four design variables). The second yields a constrained design problem for which violations can only be determined after solving the computationally expensive simulation. For the three-dimensional case, all methods present a good performance, achieving a solution within 1% of the optimum after the first iteration, with the sequential grid refinement exhibiting the fastest convergence and achieving the best final objective value. This indicates that the parallel evaluation of multiple sampling points may be more important than the choice of method for small decision spaces. For the four-dimensional constrained case, the Genetic Algorithm presents the best tradeoff between performance and computational effort, while the rough objective function terrain generated by constraint violation penalties reduces the performance of surrogate-based methods. Contour plots with flat regions indicate flexibility in the optimal design and highlight the importance of characterizing the solution space.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Methodology for determining optimal milling parameters for low-taper microtensile sample production

Femtosecond lasers are beginning to see an increase in interest for industrial and high throughput microsample milling applications. Despite this, much of the literature regarding removal rate studies for ultrashort pulse laser milling continues to focus on single-pulse or similar experiments that have a very small time on target. The material volume removal rates of femtosecond milling can vary wildly depending on parameters like laser scan speed, hatch spacing, z-axis step size, and pulses on the material. Currently, there is no established methodology for determining the optimal values of these parameters for micromilling applications. This methodology was developed in this study. The methodology consists of a pulse study, a repeat study, and a z-step study that will return the milling parameters that resulted in the largest volume removal rate for the laser used for this research. The methodology was created for the laser system used in this study, and was tested on 316 Stainless Steel, but was developed in such a way that it may be adapted to any material, and with some tweaking of variables might be used in other laser systems. The laser system used in this study utilizes a novel positioning stage that introduces 6 degrees of freedom to the translation of laser samples, being able to tilt and move in all three axes. Using both the developed methodology and the unique capabilities of the laser microtensile samples were produced with taper angles of <1° in 316 Stainless Steel.

Barker, Zachary Wayne↗

Jet fragmentation function and groomed substructure of bottom quark jets in proton-proton collisions at 5.02 TeV

A measurement of the substructure of bottom quark jets (b jets) in proton-proton (pp) collisions is presented. The measurement uses data collected in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=5.02$ TeV, with a low number of simultaneous interactions per bunch crossing, recorded by the CMS experiment in 2017, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 301 pb −1 . An algorithm to identify and cluster the charged decay daughters of b hadrons is developed for this analysis, which facilitates the exposure of the gluon radiation pattern of b jets using iterative Cambridge-Aachen declustering. The soft-drop-groomed jet radius, R g , and momentum balance, z g , of b quark jets are presented. These observables can be used to test perturbative quantum chromodynamics predictions that account for mass effects. Because the b hadron is partially reconstructed from its charged decay daughters, only charged particles are used for the jet substructure studies. In addition, a jet fragmentation function, z b,ch , is measured, which is defined as the distribution of the ratio of the transverse momentum (p T ) of the partially reconstructed b hadron with respect to the charged-particle component of the jet p T . The substructure variable distributions are unfolded to the charged-particle level. The b jet substructure is compared to the substructure of jets in an inclusive jet sample that is dominated by light-quark and gluon jets in order to assess the role of the b quark mass. A strong suppression of emissions at small R g values is observed for b jets when compared to inclusive jets, consistent with the dead-cone effect. The measurement is also compared with theoretical predictions from Monte Carlo event generators. This is the first substructure measurement of b jets that clusters together the b hadron decay daughters independent of the b hadron species and decay channel.

boosted jets↗

Burn parameters affect PAH emissions at conditions relevant for prescribed fires

Wildfire smoke is a health hazard as it contains carcinogenic volatile compounds and fine particulate matter. In particular, exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is a major concern, since these compounds have been recognized as important contributors to the overall carcinogenic risk. In this work, gas and particle-phase PAH emissions from combustion of Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) were quantified using time-of-flight mass spectrometry over a range of burn conditions representative of wildfires and prescribed fires, including fuel moisture, heat flux, and oxygen concentration. We found that changing the burn environment lead to a variability of up to 77% in phenanthrene/anthracene emissions. This could explain a large part of the variability in PAH emission factors from biomass combustion reported in the literature. Here, we found that optimal conditions for fuel moisture content of 20–30%, sample heat load of 60 - 70 kW m -2 , and oxygen concentrations of 5–15% can significantly reduce the emissions of heavy molar weight PAHs. Our analysis showed that the relative carcinogenic risk from PAH exposure can be reduced by more than 50% under optimal conditions. In light of the increasing use of prescribed fire for forest management, the relationship between emissions and burn conditions that we have established provides a guidance for assessing the expected health impact from prescription burns, and can inform strategies to reduce PAH emissions from prescribed fire activities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Microstructure modeling of nuclear structural materials: Recent progress and future directions

Modeling and simulation of microstructures are essential to understand the complex responses and behaviors of nuclear materials in extreme environments. The needs to assess the extended life operation as well as the growing interest in accelerating nuclear materials development and qualification have stimulated the use of high-fidelity multiscale models aided by empirical and ab initio data. This paper reviews the role of various models across different length and time scales in investigating irradiation effects on microstructure evolution and degradation, in particular the embrittlement caused by radiation induced or enhanced formation of nanoscale chemical heterogeneities. The strength and limitations of these models, including classical rate theories, cluster dynamics, phase-field methods, and atomistic models informed by ab initio energies, are discussed with seminal examples. Challenges regarding the lack of thermo-kinetic data and theoretical treatments considering chemical complexities and magnetic excitations, as well as the stabilizing effect by excess point defects in nuclear structural materials are presented, along with potential solutions based on ab initio informed surrogate energy models and statistical sampling by Monte Carlo simulations. Further, the review then highlights the opportunities to leverage the advantages of different methods by establishing hybrid models by shared variables or coupled codes and applications. Finally, the review concludes with forward-looking remarks on how the use of physics-based models can aid the improvement of machine-learning models of property degradation and vice versa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pu(IV) quantification via visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy: tackling interferences using D-optimal design and partial least squares

Here, this study presents a novel analytical approach for quantifying Pu(IV) in glove box environments using fiber-optic-based visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares regression (PLSR) and design of experiments. The method addresses significant challenges posed by overlapping spectral features arising from Nd(III), which is a common fission product impurity, and the speciation variability of Pu(IV) nitrato complexes in HNO 3 concentrations ranging from 2.5 to 11 M. A curated training set consisting of data from 20 samples was developed via D-optimal design to enable robust PLSR model calibration for Pu(IV) using the near-infrared band near 1050 nm. The training set was acquired from samples in cuvettes with a 1-cm path length and was used to build the PLSR model. The robustness of the model was validated with data collected using a dip probe with a 1-cm path length and varying Pu(IV) concentrations. The strong performance of the model indicates good model transfer from cuvette to dip probe and highlights the potential for in situ measurements and online monitoring of reactions in a crystallization reactor vessel. The results demonstrate that this combined spectroscopic and chemometric approach can accurately and simultaneously quantify Pu(IV) and HNO 3 , thereby offering a promising tool for real-time monitoring in process environments.

Actinide↗

ATLAS-MAP: An Automated Test Station for Gated Electronic Transport Measurements

The diversification of electronic materials in devices provides a strong incentive for methods to rapidly correlate device performance with fabrication decisions. In this work, we present a low-cost automated test station for gated electronic transport measurements of field-effect transistors. Utilizing open-source PyMeasure libraries for transparent instrument control, the “ATLAS-MAP” system serves as a customizable interface between sourcemeters and samples under test and is programmed to conduct transfer curve and van der Pauw methods with static and sweeping gate voltages. Zinc oxide transistors of variable thickness (5, 10, and 20 nm) and channel size (50 μm to 3 mm, of equal length and width) were fabricated to validate the design. Standardization of testing procedures and raw data formatting enabled automated data analysis. A detailed list of parts and code files for the system are provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗