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NASA NTRS2022

Linkages Between GRACE Water Storage, Hydrologic Extremes, and Climate Teleconnections in Major African Aquifers

Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.

Africa water storage↗

NASA NTRS2022

Groundwater Depletion in California’s Central Valley Accelerates During Megadrought

Groundwater provides nearly half of irrigation water supply, and it enables resilience during drought, but in many regions of the world, it remains poorly, if at all managed. In heavily agricultural regions like California’s Central Valley, where groundwater management is being slowly implemented over a 27-year period that began in 2015, groundwater provides two-thirds or more of irrigation water during drought, which has led to falling water tables, drying wells, subsiding land, and its long-term disappearance. Here we use nearly two decades of observations from NASA’s GRACE satellite missions and show that the rate of groundwater depletion in the Central Valley has been accelerating since 2003 (1.86 km3 /yr, 1961-2021; 2.41 km3 /yr, 2003- 2021; 8.58 km3 /yr, 2019-2021), a period of megadrought in southwestern North America. Results suggest the need for expedited implementation of groundwater management in the Central Valley to ensure its availability during the increasingly intense droughts of the future.

Hydrology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

RGB Imaging as a Tool to Monitor Indoor Crop Plant Production

Future crop production in space will require robust monitoring technologies that can optimize crop yield, reduce waste, and generate data for an automated plant growth design. Imaging has been suggested as a tool for measuring plant health, yet imaging systems for indoor crops have not been tested in spaceflight. Fortunately, RGB images of crop plants growing inside the Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) aboard the ISS have already been captured. In ground-based studies, the Kennedy Space Center (NASA, KSC) is collaborating with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA ARS) to develop an imaging system for monitoring indoor crop plant health. In one study, we applied a drought stress to ‘Dragoon’ lettuce plants over a period of 14 days and captured RGB images in 24 h increments. Images were analyzed, and by applying a difference index, the images were able to be used to detect the drought stress in lettuce. This difference index was then applied to RGB images collected inside the APH ground unit for a pre-flight experiment growing ‘Outredgous’ lettuce under different substrate moisture conditions, and results showed that the RGB camera was capable of detecting drought stress inside the spaceflight plant growth hardware. These results suggest that RGB cameras already deployed to space may offer valuable information for monitoring plant production in extraterrestrial environments. This research was supported by NASA’s space biology program.

Rachel Tucker↗

DOE OSTI2012

Tree Death Study's Climate Change Connections

What are the exact physiological mechanisms that lead to tree death during prolonged drought and rising temperatures? These are the questions that scientists are trying to answer at a Los Alamos National Laboratory research project called SUMO. SUMO stands for SUrvival/MOrtality study; it's a plot of land on the Lab's southern border that features 18 climate controlled tree study chambers and a large drought structure that limits rain and snowfall. Scientists are taking a wide variety of measurements over a long period of time to determine what happens during drought and warming, and what the connections and feedback loops might be between tree death and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Guidelines and considerations for designing field experiments simulating precipitation extremes in forest ecosystems

1. Precipitation regimes are changing in response to climate change, yet understanding of how forest ecosystems respond to extreme droughts and pluvials remains incomplete. As future precipitation extremes will likely fall outside the range of historical variability, precipitation manipulation experiments (PMEs) are critical to advancing knowledge about potential ecosystem responses. However, few PMEs have been conducted in forests compared to short-statured ecosystems, and forest PMEs have unique design requirements and constraints. Moreover, past forest PMEs have lacked coordination, limiting cross-site comparisons. Here, we review and synthesize approaches, challenges, and opportunities for conducting PMEs in forests, with the goal of guiding design decisions, while maximizing the potential for coordination. 2. We reviewed 63 forest PMEs at 70 sites world-wide. Workshops, meetings, and communications with experimentalists were used to generate and build consensus around approaches for addressing the key challenges and enhancing coordination. 3. Past forest PMEs employed a variety of study designs related to treatment level, replication, plot and infrastructure characteristics, and measurement approaches.Important considerations for establishing new forest PMEs include: selecting appropriate treatment levels to reach ecological thresholds; balancing cost, logistical complexity, and effectiveness in infrastructure design; and preventing unintended water subsidies. Response variables in forest PMEs were organized into three broad tiers reflecting increasing complexity and resource intensiveness, with the first tier representing a recommended core set of common measurements. 4. Differences in site conditions combined with unique research questions of experimentalists necessitate careful adaptation of guidelines for forest PMEs to balance local objectives with coordination among experiments. We advocate adoption of a common framework for coordinating forest PME design to enhance cross-site comparability and advance fundamental knowledge about the response and sensitivity of diverse forest ecosystems to precipitation extremes.

Climate Extremes, drought, ecological thresholds, ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pinus ponderosa physiology data from the 2022 shade manipulation field experiment at Game Ridge, Missoula County, Montana, USA

This dataset contains physiology data on Pinus ponderosa saplings, including: leaf water potential (MPa, megapascals), leaf osmotic potential (MPa, megapascals), leaf pressure potential (MPa, megapascals), leaf relative water content (% saturated mass), as well as soluble sugars (% dry mass),starch (% dry mass), and total nonstructural carbohydrates (% dry mass) found in branch phloem and xylem. Data files and data dictionary(ies) are uploaded as .csv files and .xlsx files. The Users Guide is a .pdf file. Location data can be found in the Google Earth file GameRidge_SitePlotCoordinates.kmz.kml included here. These datasets were collected for Plant Carbohydrate Depletion, Mycorrhizal Networks, and Vulnerability to Drought: An Experimental Test in the Field. This experiment examined the interdependency between plant hydraulics and carbohydrate availability and sought to develop ways to incorporate interactions with below ground symbiotic organisms to better model and quantify forest response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Detecting Early Warning Signals of Tree Mortality in Boreal North America Using Multiscale Satellite Data

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

heat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Using tracer-derived groundwater transit times to assess storage within a high-elevation watershed of the upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Previous watershed assessments have relied on annual baseflow to evaluate the groundwater contribution to streams. To quantify the volume of groundwater in storage, additional information such as groundwater mean transit time (MTT) is needed. This study determined the groundwater MTT in the West Fork Duchesne watershed in Utah (USA) with lumped-parameter modeling of environmental tracers (SF{sub 6}, CFCs, and {sup 3}H/{sup 3}He) from 21 springs. Approximately 30% of the springs exhibited an exponential transit time distribution (TTD); the remaining ~70% were best characterized by a piston-flow TTD. The flow-weighted groundwater MTT for the West Fork watershed is about 40 years with approximately 20 years in the unsaturated zone. A cumulative distribution of these ages revealed that most of the groundwater is between 30 and 50 years old, suggesting that declining recharge associated with 5–10-year droughts is less likely to have a profound effect on this watershed compared with systems with shorter MTTs. The estimated annual baseflow of West Fork stream flow based on chemical hydrograph separation is ~1.7 × 10{sup 7} m{sup 3}/year, a proxy for groundwater discharge. Using both MTT and groundwater discharge, the volume of mobile groundwater stored in the watershed was calculated to be ~6.5 × 10{sup 8} m{sup 3}, or ~20 m thickness of active groundwater storage and recharge of ~0.09 m/year (assuming porosity = 15%). Future watershed-scale assessments should evaluate groundwater MTT, in addition to annual baseflow, to quantify groundwater storage and more accurately assess watershed susceptibility to drought, groundwater extraction, and land-use change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Chloroplast protein PLGG1 is involved in abscisic acid-regulated lateral root development and stomatal movement in Arabidopsis

Highlights: • PLGG1, a chloroplast protein, regulates lateral root growth under ABA treatment. • PLGG1 is also involved in ABA-inhibited seed germination, ABA-mediated stomatal movement, and drought tolerance. • The deficiency of PLGG1 alters the expression of a set of ABA-responsive genes. The plant hormone abscisic acid (ABA) plays a crucial role in root architecture; however, the molecular mechanism of ABA-regulated lateral root (LR) growth is not well known. We screened an Arabidopsis thaliana mutant with LR growth that was sensitive to ABA from a T-DNA insertion mutant library, which was an allelic mutant of plgg1-1, termed plgg1-2. PLGG1 encodes a chloroplast protein that transports plastidic glycolate and glycerate. The length and number of LRs at the root-hypocotyl junction of plgg1-1 and plgg1-2 were significantly impaired under exogenous ABA treatment, and the transgenic plant complementary lines of plgg1-2 restored LR growth in response to ABA. In addition, we found that PLGG1 is involved in other major ABA responses, including ABA-inhibited seed germination, ABA-mediated stomatal movement, and drought tolerance. These findings open new perspectives on elucidating the mechanism of ABA response, and provide clues for analysing the functions of chloroplast proteins in regulating root growth.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Molecular cloning and characterization of the glutathione reductase gene from Stipa purpurea

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are a key factor in abiotic stresses; excess ROS is harmful to plants. Glutathione reductase (GR) plays an important role in scavenging ROS in plants. Here, a GR gene, named SpGR, was cloned from Stipa purpurea and characterized. The full-length open reading frame was 1497 bp, encoding 498 amino acids. Subcellular localization analysis indicated that SpGR was localized to both the plasma membrane and nucleus. The expression of SpGR was induced by cold, salt, and drought stresses. Functional analysis indicated that ectopic expression of SpGR in Arabidopsis thaliana resulted in greater tolerance to salt stress than that of wild-type plants, but no difference under cold or drought treatments. The results of GR activity and GSSG and GSH content analyses suggested that, under salt stress, transgenic plants produced more GR to reduce GSSG to GSH for scavenging ROS than wild-type plants. Therefore, SpGR may be a candidate gene for plants to resist abiotic stress.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Transcriptional regulation of bHLH during plant response to stress

Highlights: • bHLH can regulate gene expression through interaction with specific motif in target genes. • In this review, we discuss the role of bHLH in plants in response to stresses such as drought, salt and cold stress. • This review will provide new ideas and targets for the prevention and treatment of plant stress resistance. Basic helix-loop-helix protein (bHLH) is the most extensive class of transcription factors in eukaryotes, which can regulate gene expression through interaction with specific motif in target genes. bHLH transcription factor is not only universally involved in plant growth and metabolism, including photomorphogenesis, light signal transduction and secondary metabolism, but also plays an important role in plant response to stress. In this review, we discuss the role of bHLH in plants in response to stresses such as drought, salt and cold stress. To provide a strong evidence for the important role of bHLH in plant stress response, in order to provide new ideas and targets for the prevention and treatment of plant stress resistance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Variation in short-term and long-term responses of photosynthesis and isoprenoid-mediated photoprotection to soil water availability in four Douglas-fir provenances

For long-lived forest tree species, the understanding of intraspecific variation among populations and their response to water availability can reveal their ability to cope with and adapt to climate change. Dissipation of excess excitation energy, mediated by photoprotective isoprenoids, is an important defense mechanism against drought and high light when photosynthesis is hampered. We used 50-year-old Douglas-fir trees of four provenances at two common garden experiments to characterize provenance-specific variation in photosynthesis and photoprotective mechanisms mediated by essential and non-essential isoprenoids in response to soil water availability and solar radiation. All provenances revealed uniform photoprotective responses to high solar radiation, including increased de-epoxidation of photoprotective xanthophyll cycle pigments and enhanced emission of volatile monoterpenes. In contrast, we observed differences between provenances in response to drought, where provenances sustaining higher CO2 assimilation rates also revealed increased water-use efficiency, carotenoid-chlorophyll ratios, pools of xanthophyll cycle pigments, β-carotene and stored monoterpenes. Our results demonstrate that local adaptation to contrasting habitats affected chlorophyll-carotenoid ratios, pool sizes of photoprotective xanthophylls, β-carotene, and stored volatile isoprenoids. We conclude that intraspecific variation in isoprenoid-mediated photoprotective mechanisms contributes to the adaptive potential of Douglas-fir provenances to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Depth of nutrient uptake by deep-rooted plants is regulated by water availability

The capacity of some plants to access water and nutrients at depths greater than one meter is a critical functional trait that confers resistance to drought and impacts both belowground and shallow soil processes. Here, we report water and strontium isotopic data from an alpine meadow transect showing the correlation between water and nutrient acquisition depths. The isotopic compositions of Sr ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratio) and water in rock and soil, and in plant leaf tissues, reveal that deeper-rooted plants acquire a higher proportion of water, Sr, and cation nutrients that are derived from the saprolite, a zone of silicate weathering, than shallow-rooted grass. A three-decade dendrochemical record reveals that reductions of wet precipitation drive deep-rooted plants to acquire cation nutrients from deeper saprolite or bedrock regions. Thus, the depth of cation nutrient acquisition by deep-rooted plant species at this site is tightly coupled with, and likely determined by, water availability in soil, saprolite, and bedrock. The enhanced uptake of cations as well as water from deeper saprolite zones could impact the rate of bedrock weathering and watershed chemistry during drought.

biogeochemistry↗